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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Meanwhile, the markets seem oblivious to the growing crisis in U.S. commercial
real estate, where the default rate just doubled in Q3, to 3.4% (and up 52bps from The markets seem oblivious
Q2) with vacancies on the rise and rents on the decline. This shoe is already to the growing crisis in U.S.
dropping for the banking system. commercial real estate
As for residential real estate, the White House is now moving more aggressively to
force lenders to modify mortgage loans, which can only mean that principal
reductions are coming hard and fast and this in turn means … more write-downs
are on there way. Caveat emptor when it comes to the U.S. financials, a sector
that already looks very toppy — see page B3 of the NYT — Treasury Presses
Mortgage Lenders for Payment Relief.
Overseas, the next worry spots range from sovereign credit risks in Greece, to
fiscal stress in the U.K. and Ireland, to signs of a property bubble in China, to a
severe debt refinancing calendar in Russia and many the Baltic states. In the U.S.,
try the burgeoning losses at Fannie and Freddie, not to mention the FHA’s razor-
thin reserve cushion and the inevitable need for a taxpayer bailout. Dubai was
very likely NOT the last in the series of post-credit-bubble aftershocks.
Three of these four indicators are still in decline — only industrial production looks
to have even remotely put in a discernible bottom. Employment was down 0.1%
MoM in October after dropping 0.2% in September; real organic income dipped
0.03% to a new cycle low in October after a more visible 0.2% decline in
September; and we just now got the real manufacturing/retail/wholesale trade
sales data for September and they showed a 0.2% drop in September after a
similar falloff in August.
So, it begs the question as to how a recovery has started with just one limb
So how can a recovery start
hanging on the body. Just because the equity market is up more than 60% from
with just one limb hanging
the lows by no means suggests that this is some official arbiter of how the real on the body?
economy is shaping up. Remember, it was the same equity market hitting new
highs through the first ten months of 2007, seemingly oblivious to the fact that the
worst economic downturn in seven decades was merely a few weeks away.
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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Wall Street and Main Street are on opposite sides of the planet right now. Have a
read of the op-ed article today on page A15 of the WSJ (Working Two Jobs and Still
Underemployed).
CHICAGO!
The Chicago PMI did improve to 56.1 from 54.2 in October (as did New York,
Dallas, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Milwaukee!). But this diffusion index is spotty
at best in terms of predicting ISM, and ISM itself is currently not reliable given that
it is biased towards large companies and it is small business that is cutting back
on spending activity and is having trouble accessing capital.
12
-4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
Going back to 1974 (the history for the National Federation of Independent
Business (NFIB) optimism index), on average, when the NFIB is around the current
level of 89.1 (as of October) ISM is usually at 44.0 (currently at 55.7 in October).
So in essence, the NFIB index is currently trading as if ISM is 44.0, not 56.0.
Not only that, but during expansions, the NFIB index averages 100.2; during
recessions, the NFIB, on average, is at 92.2. The NFIB is currently at 89.1, so this
notion that we are out of recession seems to be at odds with a lot of other
information out there outside of a 65% rally in the equity market.
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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
• Major topping formation in the transports despite Warren Buffett’s foray and
lower energy prices (triple-top in the transports-to-utilities ratio?)
The U.S. consumer still looks
to be on pretty shaky terrain
• Bond yields below their 200-day moving average.
• Real rates (10-year TIPS yield) all the way down to 1.10% (from 1.5% barely
over a month ago).
• Baa spreads widening 15bps from nearby lows and by 25bps in the high-yield
market.
RETAIL SALES UPDATE
U.S. chain-store sales in November did not look that great but we will find out more
on Thursday. As for auto sales for the month, Edmunds.com is calling for 10.34
million at an annual rate, which would translate into a 10% decline from October’s
tally. The U.S. consumer still looks to be on pretty shaky terrain. The official U.S.
retail sales data will be released on December 11.
Note that one giant wild card in this Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payroll report (which
everyone has upgraded post last week’s claims data) is retail employment. This is
the sector’s largest hiring month of the year and if there is anything we know with
certainty, it is that merchants went into this season deliberately mean and lean.
This may end up being a large swing factor that could cause the data to line up on
the soft side, irrespective of the seasonal adjustment factor.
Note that while this is still early days in the holiday season, Cyber Monday was
very mixed — more eyeballs than a year ago (+16%), but less $$$ per buyer (
-12% per sales ticket). This was much like Black Friday at the malls — total
traffic was up but the average purchase was down 8% to below 2007 levels
(average of $340 per shopper). Also note that the giving spirit is being
negatively affected by the ongoing frugality too — only 21% of business owners
are planning to give year-end bonuses this year versus 44% last year, as one
example (see Rethinking Holiday Perks on page B7 of the WSJ).
It’s not just the middle-class in China that is starting to buy gold, but the central
bank, which has very deep pockets, is going to do likewise. We just came across a
Bloomberg News article quoting an official from the state-owned Assets
Supervision and Administration Commission (Ji Xiaonan, the Chief) as saying “we
recommend China increase its gold reserves to 6,000 metric tons within three-to-
five years and possibly to 10,000 tons in eight to 10 years.” China’s reserves,
after a 76% buildup since 2003, currently stand at 1,054 tons, so we are talking
here about the prospect of some pretty heaving buying in coming years.
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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
If China were to lift their gold reserves to 5,000 tonnes, which is equivalent to
about two years of global production, that shift in demand would boost the gold Make no mistake, we are
price by $800/oz to around $2,000 ($1,978) based on our models. If China gold bulls; central banks
moves towards 10,000 tonnes, well, that would end up taking the gold price to have deep pockets and
$2,623/ounce if our calculations are in the ball-park. production of gold is
stagnant so the demand-
Make no mistake, we are gold bulls. Central banks have deep pockets and supply backdrop for bullion
production of gold is stagnant so the demand-supply backdrop for bullion is bullish. is bullish
At the same time, we have to pay respect for market positioning over the near-
term. The market for precious metals is overextended right now after the
parabolic move of the past two months. The net speculative long position has
swelled to a record 273,552 contracts (100 ounces each) on the COMEX. Open
interest has never been higher, at 693,661 contracts. So this is one crowded
trade — as is the short-trade on the USD against all the major currencies,
especially the commodity-based units.
So, we could get a meaningful gold correction at any time, and we are talking
about a correction in what is still a secular bull market — the 200-day moving
average is $970/oz, which means we could get as much as a 20% pullback and
no fundamental trendline would be violated. We remain long-term gold bulls,
and our commentary remains fundamentally bullish, but anything that could
spark a countertrend rally in the U.S. dollar, which is our principal near-term
concern, would put gold at a much better price point for investors than the peak
we are at today.
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
09
Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-50,000
-100,000
95 98 01 04 07
Over the past six months, U.S. investors have put a net $26 billion into equity
funds while plowing $254 billion into bond/hybrid funds, in what appears to be a
secular change in behavior — allocating more cash into the fixed-income market.
This divergence could persist for some time because at last count, less than 7%
of household assets were in bonds and 25% were in equities (and 30% still in
real estate!).
Institutional demand for bonds has been solid too. The Treasury managed to
sell $44 billion of 2-year Treasury notes last week at a record low yield of 80bps.
The average bid-to-cover ratio at the Treasury auctions so far this year has been
2.59 versus 2.19 in 2008 despite a record $1.4 trillion budget deficit. Through
the first nine months of 2009, foreign investors, public and private, have added
more than $400 billion to their holdings of Treasury securities — matching all of
the activity posted in 2008. So much for an international buyers’ strike as far as
U.S. government bonds are concerned.
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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
In any case, the only reason why the GDP headline was not an absolute blow-out
was because imports surged at a 36% annual rate. But outside of commercial
construction, which sagged at a 13.8% annual rate (fourth quarter in a row of
contraction) the Canadian economy is humming along:
• Consumer spending +3.1% at an annual rate in Q3
• Capex +25.6%
• Exports +15.3%
• Residential construction +8.1%
• Renovation activity +11.5%
• Government +7.9%
So while much of Canadian demand was filled with foreign production with
imports soaring, the strength in spending is consistent with improved confidence
levels in Canada across the household and business sectors. The improvement
in the auto sector from depressed levels no doubt helped underpin exports but
this will likely be temporary and import substitution given the strong Canadian
dollar is probably going to be an enduring theme — and is already triggering
some deflation pressure as the final domestic demand price deflator actually
dipped at a 0.4% annual rate after being flat in the second quarter. That was
the first decline in two years and is constructive for the Canadian bond market
as it gives the BoC that much more leeway to stay on the sidelines for longer.
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Page 7 of 11
December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
As for the raw materials price index (RMPI), it rose 2.5% MoM in October
reversing the 1.0% decline in September. The increase in this index was
mainly due to mineral fuels, in particular crude oil. The year-over-year rate for
RMPI is becoming less negative, at -7.6% in October compared to -21.4% in
September and -34.5% just three-ago; however, there seems to be no flow-
through to the later stages of production: the price index for intermediate
goods is 0% and finished goods is deflating at a 0.7% rate.
Overall, all this attests to our deflationary theme for finished goods and hence
the income-heavy tilt to our investment strategy; and the inflation that is
centered in primary production due to Asia’s secular growth dynamics also
leaves us with an overall constructive stance on the resource sector.
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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
40
20
10
-10
-20
-30
Business Investment in
Machinery & Equipment
-40
-50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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December 1, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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