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Estimates and Sample Size for Means

Estimation: is the process of estimating the value of a parameter from information
obtained from a sample.

Point Estimate: is a numerical value estimated for a parameter.

The following statistics are considered to be the best estimators of the corresponding
parameters.
Parameter Best Estimator
µ x
p pˆ
o s

Interval Estimate of a parameter is a range of values used to estimate the parameter.

Confidence Interval: is a specific interval estimate of a parameter determined by
using data obtained from a sample and the specific confidence level of the estimate.

Confidence Level of an interval estimate of a parameter is the probability that the
parameter will fall within the specified interval.

Notes:
To be more confident that the interval contains the true population mean, one must
make the interval larger.

95% confidence means that the true population mean falls in the confidence interval
set for 95%.

Central Limit Theorem: If random samples of size n are drawn from a population
(finite or infinite), then as n becomes larger, the sampling distribution of the mean
approaches the normal distribution, regardless of the from of the population
distribution.

Formula for the Confidence Interval of the Mean for a Specific α. (if


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z x
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z x
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µ
o
o o
2 2


where
2
o
z is the symbol for a two-tailed z value.


2
o
z is 1.96 with α = 0.05

2
o
z is 2.575 with α = 0.01






Maximum Error of Estimate: is the maximum difference between the point estimate
of a parameter and the actual value of the parameter.

Also,
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z
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2
is called the maximum error of estimate.
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n
o
is called the standard error

Formula for a Specific Confidence Interval of the Mean
When σ is Unknown and 30 < n


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t x
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t x
2 2
o o
µ where
2
o
t is the symbol for a two-tailed
t value.
The degrees of freedom:

Sample Size (n)


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=
E
z
n
o
o

where E is the maximum error of estimate.
(If necessary, round up to obtain a whole number.)

Formula for the Specific Confidence for a Proportion.


n
q p
z p p
n
q p
z p
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ˆ
2 2
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where np and nq are greater or equal to 5.

Minimum Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion

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E
z
q p n
o

Maximum Error of Estimate Value for n:

n
q p
z E
ˆ ˆ
2
o
=

Three Properties of a Good Estimator
1. The estimator must be an unbiased estimator, that is, the expected value or the
mean of the estimator must be equal to the mean of the parameter being
estimated.
2. The estimator must be consistent. For a consistent estimator, as sample size
increases, the value of the estimator approaches the value of the parameter
estimated.
3. The estimator must be a relatively efficient estimator – that is, of all the
statistics that can be used to estimate a parameter, the relatively efficient has
the smallest variance.


Exercises:
1. A certain medication is known to increase the pulse rate of its users. The
standard deviation of the pulse rate is known to be 5 beats per minute. A
sample of 30 users had an average pulse rate of 104 beats per minute. Find the
94% confidence interval of the true mean.

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2. Forty randomly selected automobiles were stopped, and the trend depth of the
right front tire was measured. The mean was 0.32 inch, and the standard
deviation was 0.08 inch. Find the 95% confidence interval of the mean depth.

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3. A university dean wishes to estimate the average number of hours his part-
time instructors teach per week. The standard deviation from a previous study
is 2.6 hours. How large a sample must be selected if he wants to be 99%
confident of finding whether the true mean differs from the sample mean by 1
hour?





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4. A recent study of 25 students showed that they spent an average of $18.53 for
gasoline per week. The standard deviation was $3.00. Find the 99%
confidence interval of the time mean.



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5. In an article on education, a researcher stated that only 10% of a sample of 200
people feel that teachers should pass competency examinations before
teaching. Find the 95% confidence interval of the true proportions.

6. A medical researcher wishes to determine the percentage of females that are
under 20 years of age who have had an abortion. He wishes to be 92%
confident that the estimate is within 2 percentage points of the true proportion.
How large should the sample size be if 25% were under 20 years of age?

7. For a certain age group, a study of 100 people showed that 25% died of
cancer. Find the true proportion of individuals who die of cancer for that age
group. Use 95% confidence interval.

8. Referring to number 7, what if 35% died of cancer from an unknown group of
people. Determine the sample size if it differs by .09 of the true proportion.

9. A health care professional wishes to estimate the birth weights of infants.
How large a sample must she select if she desires to be 90% confident that
the true mean is within 6 ounces of the sample mean? The standard deviation
of the birth weights is known to be 8 ounces.










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10. A sample of 40 adult elephants had an average weight of 12,200 pounds with a
standard deviation of 200 pounds. Find the 96% confidence interval of the
true mean.

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April 15, 2013


1. A certain medication is known to increase the pulse rate of its users. The
standard deviation of the pulse rate is known to be 5 beats per minute. A
sample of 30 users had an average pulse rate of 104 beats per minute. Find the
92% confidence interval of the true mean.


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µ
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2 2



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HW for July 6, 2013
1. A new production process is being considered to replace the old process
presently used. This new process was tested for 8 consecutive hours with the
following results: 118, 122, 120, 124, 126, 125, 125, 124. Construct a
97% confidence interval for the population mean.


2. A recent study of 50 students showed that they spent an average of $18.53 for
gasoline per week. The standard deviation was $3.00. Find the 98%
confidence interval of the time mean.

3. A medical researcher wishes to determine the percentage of females that are
under 20 years of age who have had an abortion. He wishes to be 92%
confident that the estimate is within 2 percentage points of the true proportion.
How large should the sample size be if 25% were under 20 years of age?


April 17, 2013 SW

1. What if 35% died of cancer from an unknown group of people.
Determine the sample size if it differs by .09 of the true proportion with
96% confidence.

2. A health care professional wishes to estimate the birth weights of infants.
How large a sample must she select if she desires to be 97.8% confident
that the true mean is within 6 ounces of the sample mean? The standard
deviation of the birth weights is known to be 8 ounces.

3. A random sample of the number of agricultural lands (in thousands) in various provinces in
the whole archipelago are as follows:
47 30 80 48 95
95 78 109 47 55
49 65 21 52 68
21 55 53 88 111

Estimate the mean number of farms per province with 90% confidence.