1

TO: To Whom It May Concern

FROM: Andrew Maxfield
RE: Dont Buy the Republican Line on the Montana Senate Race
DATE: July 17, 2014

The election in Montana for U.S. Senate is heating up. Despite what Liz Cheneys polling says,
the race in Montana between John Walsh and Steve Daines is turning into one of the most
competitive races in the country.
Our internal polling has us just 5 points down. The initial head-to-head question is 38% Walsh
and 43% Daines. Early this year, we were down 14 points, then 8 points, now 5 points.
The Republican Super-PACs, the Koch brothers, and Karl Rove have done their best to knock us
out. Weve been outspent 3 to 1. And theyve hit us with every negative they have in their book
(even making some things up). But we are gaining and growing stronger.
Voters approve of the job Walsh is doing as U.S. Senator by a 15 point margin -- 47% approve
and 32% disapprove.
Steve Daines job approval ratings look pretty similar 49% approve of the job Daines has done,
36% disapprove.
The story that is being written about Montanas Senate election may have Liz Cheneys stamp of
approval, but it is just wrong.
We polled for Jon Tester in 2012 and we came back from being 8 points down early on. And we
faced a similar challenge: Republican pollsters releasing numbers and a lot of Washington pundits
believing it. A lot of people had egg on their face the day after the election.
Maybe Republican polls are an attempt to mislead the national press, maybe they honestly
believe their numbers. It doesnt matter. When it comes to the accuracy of Republican polling,
just ask Eric Cantor. One of the pollsters that has Walsh down double digits also had Eric Cantor
winning by double digits.
There are two facts that people should remember about this race.
1) It isnt simply that Democrats can win in Montana, they do win. Democrats won the
Governors race and the U.S. Senate race in 2012, just like they did in 2008. To say that
Montana is now too hostile for Democrats has no basis in fact.
2) When Montana voters start to learn about Steve Daines and his record, they dont like
what they see. And this is important: When Daines first ran for Congress and won, there
wasnt a single ad on TV exposing him for who he is. But expose Daines for who he is, tell
voters what he has done, and what he will do as a U.S. Senator: Montanans become
alarmed.
It shouldnt surprise anyone that Daines vote share has been steadily dropping. Montanans are
largely pro-choice and believe women deserve equal pay. Montanans want to keep their
Medicare, not have it be gutted to pay for tax cuts for millionaires. Etc. And John Walsh born in
Butte within eyesight of one of the nations biggest SuperFund sites, son of a pipefitter, the first in
his family to graduate college Walsh is only getting stronger.