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FOURTH CONSECUTIVE

QUARTER OF PRICE GROWTH


Transaction volumes and property prices rose between April and June.
Oliver Knight examines the latest figures.
Property prices in Edinburgh rose by 1%
in the second quarter of the year after a
1.3% increase the previous quarter. The
increase means that property prices are
5.7% higher on an annual basis.
After 18 months of static pricing,
values have now been growing for four
consecutive quarters, the longest period
of sustained growth recorded by our
index and an indication that the market
is recovering well since its low point
following the financial crisis.
Over the three months to June, homes
in the north of the city and the area
around the New Town and West End
areas enjoyed the greatest growth, with
prices increasing in value by 1.5% and
1.2% respectively.
Stock levels increased over the course
of the quarter albeit from a very low
base but it is an indication that some
vendors, who have been waiting on
the sidelines, are deciding to enter the
market. The increase in available stock
helped contribute to a 31% increase in
sales in Q2 2014, compared to the same
three month period last year.
Edward Douglas-Home, head of
Edinburgh City Sales, said: An increase
in the number of homes available for sale
is good news for potential buyers, who
have a greater degree of choice when it
comes to finding a new home. While the
bulk of sales so far this year have been
concentrated in the sub-1m price band,
we have completed a number of deals
above this level for townhouses in the
city centre.
However, while stock levels have
increased and the number of sales
has risen, there are indications that
some buyers are waiting until after the
result of the referendum on Scottish
independence is known before
considering a purchase.
One factor that tends to unsettle the
housing market is periods of uncertainty,
as individuals defer making long term
decisions until the direction of policy
is clearer.
Results for Q2 2014
Property prices in Edinburgh rose by
1% in Q2 2014
Price growth was 5.7% in the 12
months to June
Sales volumes were 31% higher in Q2
2014 than the same period last year
Edinburgh accounted for 52% of all
1m+ sales in Scotland in Q1 2014
FIGURE 1
Edinburgh price change
Annual and quarterly price change
Source: Knight Frank Residential Research
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
ANNUAL
QUARTERLY
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q2 Q1 Q4
2012 2013 2014
Q3 Q2
Source: Knight Frank Residential Research
FIGURE 2
Quarterly price growth by price bracket
(Q2 2014)
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
EDI NBURGH
CI TY I NDEX
OLIVER KNIGHT
Residential Research
The increase in available
stock helped contribute to
a 31% increase in sales in
Q2 2014, compared to the
same three month period
last year.
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For the latest news, views and analysis
on the world of prime property, visit
Global Briefing or @kfglobalbrief
500k
to 1m
0.9%
<500k
1.8%
over 2m
0.1%
1.5m
to 2m
0.5%
1m to
1.5m
0.7%
continued overleaf...
Knight Frank Edinburgh City Index, Q2 2014
Edinburgh New Town/
West End
North South West
3 month 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8%
6 month 2.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6%
1 year 5.7% 8.4% 2.9% 6.3% 2.8%
3 years 5.5% 7.7% 3.2% 6.0% 2.9%
The number of prospective purchasers
registering their interest in purchasing a
home in the three months to June 2014
was 32% lower than the same period
last year, while the number of viewings
conducted was also down, by 18%
over the same period. This suggests
that the rate of growth in sales volumes
could start to slow in the run-up to the
referendum in September.
Focus on 1m+ sales
Edinburgh accounted for more than half
of all 1m+ sales in Scotland in the first
three months of 2014, according to data
provided by the Registers of Scotland.
The city is the traditional hub of the prime
market in Scotland and over the last 12
months has accounted for 55% of all
1m+ transactions.
Interest is particularly strong for homes
in the New Town and West End area of
the city.
However, a closer look at our data
suggests that buyers of 1m+ property
are much more sensitive to price rises.
While average values of sub-1m
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RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
Liam Bailey
Global Head of Research
+44 20 7861 5133
liam.bailey@knightfrank.com
Oliver Knight
Residential Research
+44 20 7861 5134
oliver.knight@knightfrank.com
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EDINBURGH CITY INDEX Q2 2014
For the latest news, views and analysis
on the world of prime property, visit
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GLOBAL BRIEFING
Prime Country Review
Summer 2014
Scotland Index
Q1 2014
UK Residential Market
Update June 2014
The Wealth Report
2014
FIGURE 3
1m+ transactions in Scotland
and Edinburgh
Source: Knight Frank Residential Research /
Registers of Scotland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1
2014
Q4
2013
Q3
2013
Q2
2013
Q1
2013
EDINBURGH
SCOTLAND
N
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s
properties climbed by 1.2% between
April and June, price growth in the higher
price brackets was lower (figure 2). For
homes valued at over 1m, prices rose
by just 0.5% during the quarter.
An increase in the
number of homes
available for sale
is good news for
buyers, who now
have a greater
degree of choice.
Edward Douglas-Home,
Head of Edinburgh City Sales
Source: Knight Frank Residential Research