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STA220H Term Test Jun 7, 2012




Last Name: ____tions_____ First Name:____Solu________ Student #:_____________


TA: Avideh Panpan Lingling (circle one)

Time allowed: 1 hour, 50 minutes.

Aids: one sided handwritten aid sheet + non-programmable calculator + dictionary

Check that you have all the consecutively numbered pages of this test, up to the last
page which says THE END at the bottom.

Normal tables are either attached or a separate handout. Please give all probabilities to
four decimal places unless they are unnecessary zeroes.

Best marks go to best answers, as a general rule, particularly where some explanation
is requested, so try to be complete but also clear and concise; a lot of nonsense can
decrease your grade. Answers should be in context of the study.

Be sure to proportion your time carefully among the questions and
limit your time spent on any single question, as time may be tight.

Show your work and answer in the space provided (or indicate clearly where to
look), and in ink. Pencil may be used, but then remarks will not be allowed. Use
the back of pages for rough work.

Marks are shown in brackets at the end of the question parts, and are distributed as
follows:








Good luck!!


Question 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total
Max 20 10 14 12 7 10 10 17 100
Grade


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2
1) A manufacturer of cereal finds that the masses of cereal in the companys 205g-
labelled boxes are normally distributed with a mean of 200g and a standard
deviation of 16.3g. Sketch a picture of this distribution, and label the mean and st.
dev.

[3]
a) Describe the accuracy of the manufacturers filling technique:

Circle one: Biased Unbiased [1]


b) Approximately what proportion of these boxes contain between 183.7g and 216.3g of
cereal?
[1]
68% (from empirical rule)
c) What is the (exact) probability that a box selected at random contains more than
205g of cereal?
[2]

d) Determine the range of masses that you would expect 90% of these boxes of cereal
to contain (Assuming we mean the middle 90%). [3]



D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
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D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
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3


g) The quality control engineer decides to sample every 12
th
box. Could this be
considered a Simple Random Sample? Why or why not? If there are any potential
problems with this technique, explain what can go wrong.
[3]

(2) No, two boxes beside each other have no chance of being in the sample together,
so not SRS. This is systematic sampling. (1) Problems would arise if there is a
natural period of 12, such as 12x10 boxes in the shipment.








h) Another engineer decides to draw a (random) sample of 3 shipments, and then
samples 3 of the 120 boxes from each shipment. Name this sampling technique.
[2]
Multi-stage (1) (or 2-stage) Cluster (1)
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4
2)
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
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5
3) A Biologist (Pierce, 1949) believed that the chirp rate of crickets might be influenced
by temperature. He measured the number of chirps per second for different crickets
at different temperatures (in F). A portion of the (modified) data and some Minitab
output is shown below.


Regression Analysis: chirp_rate versus
temperature

The regression equation is
(A) = (B) + 0.214 temperature


Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant -0.435 2.323 -0.19 0.853
temperature 0.21443 0.02910 7.37 0.000


S = 0.994214 R-Sq = (C)


Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F
Regression 1 (D) 53.669 54.30
Residual Error 27 26.688 0.988
Total 28 80.358
temperature
c
h
i
r
p
_
r
a
t
e
95 90 85 80 75 70
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
Scatterplot of chirp_rate vs temperature


chirp_rate temperature
20.0 88.6
16.0 71.6
19.8 93.3
18.4 84.3
17.1 80.6



a) Four items have been replaced with letters. Fill in what they should be.
[4]
A - chirp_rate

B - -0.435

C - 66.8% or 0.668

D - 53.67


b) What does the estimated slope of 0.214 tell us about the relationship between
chirp rate and temperature? Be specific a qualitative answer will not suffice
here.
[2]
For each 1 degree F increase in temperature (1), we expect the chirp rate to
increase by 0.214 chirps/sec (1).
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D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
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D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
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6
The residual plots for this analysis are shown below.
Standardized Residual
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
2 1 0 -1 -2
99
90
50
10
1
Fitted Value
S
t
a
n
d
a
r
d
i
z
e
d

R
e
s
i
d
u
a
l
19 18 17 16 15
2
1
0
-1
-2
Standardized Residual
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0
8
6
4
2
0
Observation Order
S
t
a
n
d
a
r
d
i
z
e
d

R
e
s
i
d
u
a
l
28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
2
1
0
-1
-2
Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals Residuals Versus the Fitted Values
Histogram of the Residuals Residuals Versus the Order of the Data
Residual Plots for chirp_rate


c) Do you see any problems with these residuals? If so, list the problems in order of
importance. If not, state why you came to this conclusion.
[3]
(1) No problems.
No pattern in the order plot
(1) No pattern and constant variance in the residual plot
(1) Straight line in the NPP




d) Predict the chirp rate for a cricket at 78F. Are there any problems with this
prediction? Explain if so, ignoring the prediction if you like.
[2]
(1) CR = -0.435 + 0.241(78) = 16.26 chirps/s

(1) No problems.


e) Predict the temperature for a chirp rate of 21. Are there any problems with this
prediction? Explain if so, ignoring the prediction if you like.
[3]
(2) Cannot do this without regressing temperature on chirp rate.
(1) Also, 21 is at the boundary of our data so borderline extrapolation.
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7
4) Lets further examine the biology data now.

Stem-and-Leaf Display: temperature
Stem-and-leaf of temperature N = 29
Leaf Unit = 1.0

4 6 9999
6 7 11
6 7
8 7 55
10 7 66
12 7 88
(5) 8 00001
12 8 22223333
4 8 4
3 8
3 8 8
2 9
2 9 33

a) Which numerical measures would you choose in order to provide a good picture
of this distribution, and why?
[3]
Choose 5-number summary (2) since distribution is not unimodal and symmetric
(1).










b) State the two quartiles and the median for the temperature variable.
[3]
Q1 = 75
M = 80
Q3 = 83




c) How large would a temperature measurement need to be for Minitabs boxplot
routine to identify it as an outlier?
[2]
(1) IQR = Q3 Q1 = 83 75 = 8
(1) Upper fence = Q3 + 1.5 x IQR = 83 + 1.5(12) = 95
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8
If temperature is converted to degrees Celsius [C = 0.55*(F - 32)], the mean will
change but the standard deviation will stay the same.

True or False? (circle one) [1]

d) If temperature is converted to degrees Rankine [R = F + 460)], the mean will
change but the standard deviation will stay the same.

True or False? (circle one) [1]

e) If you were to calculate the 10% trimmed mean for temperature, you would
expect it to be __________ than (as) the sample mean? (circle one)

Lower About the same Higher [1]

f) The median and the trimmed mean are more ___resistant___ to outliers than the
mean.
[1]


5) The head table at a particular wedding consists of the bride, her four bridesmaids,
the groom, and his four groomsmen. All face the crowd.

a) How many possible arrangements of the bridal party are there?
[1]
10! = 3,628,800

Suppose that the bride and groom want to sit together for the rest of Q5. (!)

b) In addition, all of the groomsmen (and bridesmaids) want to sit together. How
many arrangements are there now? What is the probability of this happening
with a random seating arrangement?
[2]
3!4!4!2! = 6912 P(X) = 6912/10! = 0.0019


c) Somehow, all of the groomsmen are identical quadruplets (they all look identical).
How many uniquely identifiable arrangements are there now?
[2]
9!2!/4! = 30,240


d) One of the groomsmen just broke up with one of the bridesmaids. What is the
probability that they are not sitting beside each other?
[2]
9!2! 8!2!2! = 564,480 P(X) = 564,480/9!2! = 0.7778
www.oxdia.com
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9
6) Suppose a track and field athlete at the upcoming Olympics undergoes drug testing.
The testing procedure has 95% sensitivity (prob. of correctly identifying an athlete
who is using drugs) and 90% specificity (prob. of correctly clearing an athlete who is
not using drugs). Assume that 2% of all T&F athletes at the upcoming games have
had positive drug tests in the past, and can be presumed to be using drugs now.

a) Draw a tree diagram to represent all of the possible outcomes for this test.
Include the probabilities along the branches.
[4]

b) If an athlete tests positive for drugs, what is the probability that they are actually
on drugs?
[3]

c) How would you expect this probability to change if the incidence of drug use in
the population was actually 10% instead of 2%?
[1]
It should increase

d) Identify the main problem with this testing procedure.
[2]
(2) The specificity is way too low. Accusing 10% of all clean athletes of a drug
infringement would be intolerable to the athletes.

Note: The low conditional probability from b) is a result of the above, not the problem.
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7) A research team wants to determine what brand of cat food results in the least
amount of cat hair on furniture. The team runs an experiment with 300 cats,
separated into long-haired and short-haired and each with their own living space.
Each cat is given one of three brands of cat food (cheap dry food, fancy dry food, or
wet food) as well as either purified water or tap water. The team measures the
amount of hair on the floor of each living space.
Identify all the key design elements, such as: [10]

a) the factors, levels, and treatments

(1) Factor A (3 levels): cheap dry food, fancy dry food, wet food
(1) Factor B (2 levels): purified water, tap water

(1) Treatments (6 possible): A1B1 A1B2 A2B1 A2B2 A3B1 A3B2




b) any blocking variables (if present)

(1) Blocked by hair type (short/long)



c) response variable(s)

(2) Amount of hair on the floor


d) use of blinding

None or None at researcher level, but assume animals are not aware of
the experiment so single-blind
(1)

e) possible improvements to the design

One of (1):
- introduce blinding by having the food delivered automatically to the cats or
having the person who measures the amount of hair unaware of treatments
- block by sex of the cats


f) We could use side-by-side boxplots to compare the amount of hair left on the
floor for each type of cat food. True or False ?

g) If we notice a significant difference between the mean hair found from different
brands, we can assume a cause-effect relationship. True or False ?
I
t
e
m
I
D

6
7
1
1
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8) Regression, again
Below is some output from a regression analysis performed on a dataset containing
the age and systolic blood pressure measurement for 30 patients. These patients
were a random sample from all of the patients at a medical clinic in Toronto.

The regression equation is
blood_pressure = 98.7 + 0.971 age


Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 98.71 10.00 9.87 0.000
age 0.9709 0.2102 4.62 0.000


S = 17.3137 R-Sq = 43.2%


Analysis of Variance

Source DF SS MS F
Regression 1 6394.0 6394.0 21.33
Residual Error 28 8393.4 299.8
Total 29 14787.5


Unusual Observations
age
b
l
o
o
d
_
p
r
e
s
s
u
r
e
70 60 50 40 30 20 10
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
Scatterplot of blood_pressure vs age


Obs age blood_pressure Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid
2 47.0 220.00 144.35 3.19 XXX XXX

a) Something was minimized by this regression procedure. What is it, in very simple
words, and what is the actual (minimal) numerical value of this quantity for the
regression here?
[3]
The sum of the squares of the differences (1) between actual observed values and
their predicted values (1) was minimized. The sum is 8393.4 (1)




b) __43.2%____ of the variation in ____blood pressure___ can be explained by the
relationship with _______age_______ . Fill in the blanks.
[2]

c) Minitab has identified one unusual observation. This observation has: (circle one)
[3]

i) High leverage True or False

ii) High influence True or False

iii) Large residual True or False

d) The value under Residual has been replaced with XXX. What is this value?
[1]
75.65
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12
e) What is the meaning of the slope estimate 0.971? Again, be specific.
[2]

For every one year increase in age (1), we expect blood pressure to increase by
0.971 units (1).





f) Does the intercept have any meaning in this analysis? If so, what is the
interpretation of the intercept? If not, state why it is meaningless.
[2]

Yes (1), this is the expected blood pressure for a newborn child (1).






g) A researcher wants to use this model to predict the blood pressure of all Toronto
residents between the ages of 18-70. Assuming we deal with the outlier (by
removing it, for example), is this an appropriate use of regression? Explain why
or why not using terminology from class.
[3]

No (1), the population from which the sample was drawn is only the patients of
that particular clinic, not all of Toronto (1).These patients (being members of a
medical clinic) are likely less healthy than Torontonians in general.

Applying the results to the entire city would result in biased results (1).










h) How many ways can I arrange these 30 patients for a photo, assuming they
stand in a line?
[1]
30! or 2.6525 e32

THE END
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