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Trident University International


Ph.D. B.A. Program Class RES600:
Introductory to Data Analysis

Professor: Dr. Truel
Student: Anh Tran
E-mail: Anh.NTran@my.trident.edu
Phone: 714-904-6209


Subject

Date

From
SLP #4 for Module 4: Causality and inference:
Structuring the well-formed hypothesis
2-Dec-2013

A. Tran










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1.What is the purpose of a statistical hypothesis?
A statistical hypothesis is a specific, testable prediction about what we expect to happen in a study.
The purpose of a statistical hypothesis is to offer an explanation for a phenomenon in a way that can
be empirically tested. It also gives directions to a study, which may define a fact or a relationship to
be true or not. In addition, the purpose of a statistical hypothesis is to focus a study into a specific
area of interest and to provide researchers a way to form a research design properly.
2.Distinguish between Type I and Type II error.
A Type I error occurs when there is no difference in the data, but random sampling causes the data
to show a statistically significant difference. Therefore, if its concluded that the two groups are
really different, a Type I error is committed.
A Type II error occurs when there is a difference in the data, but random sampling causes the data
to show not a statistically significant difference. Therefore, if its concluded that the two groups are
really not different, a Type II error is committed.
Example 1: The Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) Test, which tests a pregnant patients blood for the level
of AFP to determine the health risk of a baby, has a chance for both Type I and Type II error.
Abnormally high or low AFP level may indicate Down syndrome.
Null hypothesis, Ho: patient is healthy
Alternative hypothesis, Ha: patient is unhealthy
The test result can contain either Type I or Type II errors.
Error Type I: AFP test result wrongly indicates that a patient has a Down syndrome. This error may
result in an abortion.
Error Type II: AFP test result is negative and indicates wrongly that the patient is healthy. This
error may result in a child born with serious health problems.
3.Assume you have the following data: H0: = 200, S = 30, n = 64, and X-bar= 218. Conduct a two-
tailed hypothesis test at the .05 significance level.
Because we dont have the population standard deviation, but know the sample standard
deviation, S, the two-tailed t-hypothesis test is performed as follows:





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Step 1: Calculate t-value as follows:


Step 2: Calculate the critical value, Z/2
Using the table of critical values for upper tailed tests, we can approximate the p-value. If we select
=0.05, the critical value is 1.960
Step 3: Decision
We reject H0 because 4.8 > 1.960.
Step 4: Probability of Rejection Ho
If we select =0.01 the critical value is 2.656, and we still reject H0 because 4.8 > 2.656. Therefore,
the smallest where we still reject H0 is 0.010. The two-tailed P value is less than 0.0001. By
conventional criteria, this difference is considered to be extremely statistically significant. Here we
are approximating the p-value and would report p < 0.010.
4.A drug manufacturing company conducted a survey of customers. The research question is: Is
there a significant relationship between packaging preference (size of the bottle purchased) and
economic status? There were four packaging sizes: small, medium, large, and jumbo. Economic
status was: lower, middle, and upper. The following data was collected. Please perform a Chi-
square test and explain your results. Please show each detailed step for calculations. You are
welcome to use software package to valid your results after your hand calculation.
Lower Middle Upper
Small 24 22 18
Medium 23 28 19
Large 18 27 29
Jumbo 16 21 33
Solution:

Data from the drug manufacturing companys survey as follows:




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The testing procedure is:

1- Null hypothesis.

H
0
: There is a significant relationship between packaging preference and economic status.
H
A :
There is no significant relationship between packaging preference and economic status.

2- Significance Level. =.05

3- Degree of Freedom = (r-1) (c-1) = (4-1)(3-1) = 6

4- Critical test Value : with d.f. =6 and =.05 , the critical test value is 12.59

5- Calculated value :
Expectation of (AB) = (A) (B)/ N
For 1
st
row and 1
st
column: 8164/278= 18.65
The table of Expected Frequencies corresponding to row and column shall be calculated
and shown as follows:



Package
Size
\Economic
Status
Lower Middle Upper Total
Small 24 22 18 64
Medium 23 28 19 70
Large 18 27 29 74
Jumbo 16 21 33 70
Total 81 98 99 278
Package
Size
\Economic
Status
Lower Middle Upper
Small 18.65 22.56 22.79
Medium 20.40 24.68 24.93
Large 21.56 26.09 26.35
Jumbo 20.40 24.68 24.93



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Calculation :

(O-E)
2
/E= 9.74

Interpretation: since the calculated value = 9.74 is very less than critical value = 12.59, so
we cannot reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is a significant relationship
between packaging preference and economic status.

MiniTab Analysis Result:
11/19/2013 9:51:35 PM

Welcome to Minitab, press F1 for help.

Chi-Square Test: C1, C2, C3


Expected counts are printed below observed counts

C1 C2 C3 Total
1 24 22 18 64
18.65 22.56 22.79

2 23 28 19 70
20.40 24.68 24.93

3 18 27 29 74
21.56 26.09 26.35

4 16 21 33 70
20.40 24.68 24.93

Total 81 98 99 278

Chi-Sq = 1.536 + 0.014 + 1.007 +
0.333 + 0.448 + 1.410 +
0.588 + 0.032 + 0.266 +
O E (O-E)^2 (O-E)^2/E
24.00 18.65 28.65 1.54
23.00 20.40 6.78 0.33
18.00 21.56 12.68 0.59
16.00 20.40 19.32 0.95
22.00 22.56 0.31 0.01
28.00 24.68 11.05 0.45
27.00 26.09 0.83 0.03
21.00 24.68 13.51 0.55
18.00 22.79 22.96 1.01
19.00 24.93 35.14 1.41
29.00 26.35 7.01 0.27
33.00 24.93 65.16 2.61



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0.947 + 0.548 + 2.614 = 9.743
DF = 6, P-Value = 0.136

The Minitab results confirm the hand calculation analytical results. In addition, the Minitab predicts
that the probability for a significant relationship between packaging preference and economic status
is 0.136 or 13.6%, which is larger than alpha of 0.05 or 5%. Therefore, we have to accept the null
hypothesis.