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So, let's make a stop and come back to the

decision series.
So, I suggest now to use decision
matrices.
Decision matrices, are standard ways to
represent simple decisions.
So, here we can represent our choices for
example, on the left, in
case we'd like to take this umbrella today
or not to take the umbrella today.
Of course, the outcome of our decision
depends very much on the states of nature.
If we take an umbrella, and if it doesn't
rain today.
We will have dry clothes but very heavy
suitcase.
If we not take an umbrella and it rains,
of course we have soaked clothes and very
light suitcase.
So, making this decision matters, we can
try come
up with a normative solution for the
decision in this particular situation.
So, for example we can assign numerical
values to different outcomes.
For example, we can like very much when we
do not take an umbrella and it doesn't
rain.
And we do not like the situation when we
don't take an umbrella and it rains.
So, we can assign numerical numbers for
their utility of possible outcomes,
and we can come up with a normative
solution for this particular decision.
So, if we simply sum up outcomes for
taking an umbrella and not taking an
umbrella, we
would see that perhaps expected value for
taking an
umbrella is higher than for not taking an
umbrella.
But the values or utilities of outcomes
are not
only aspects of our decision making, that
affect our decisions.
So for example, if I offer you for free,
to select between two lottery tickets.
In one lottery ticket you actually can win
$28 million.
In another lottery you can $75 million
dollars.
So, which lottery ticket you would pick
for free?
So perhaps, most of you will take the
second lottery ticket, but
if I will tell you the number of tickets
issued in this lottery.
So in this case, there is a chance to win
lottery is one to 1,000,000.
And for the second lottery, the chance to
win this lottery is one to 1,000,000,000.
So which lottery ticket you would take?
If you will simply multiply values by
probabilities, you can see that, actually,
expected value.
For the first lottery is, lottery is
higher as for the second one.
So, I have a very rational person who
actually select the first lottery.
So, this example illustrate that when we
make a decision.
We not just pay attention to the possible
outcome in terms of, the
expected value but those who integrate
this well you're with the
probability of this outcome, so this idea
in
economics called expected utility theory,
so whenever
we every way it's not an option we
integrate value and the probability
of the outcome.
For example, if there is a very small
probability of rain.
Now in this case, I just integrated the
probability into the decision matrix.
If you will calculate the expected utility
you will find then
with the probability, there's a low
probability of rain today.
It makes sense actually then to not take
an umbrella.
If the probability of outcome is
different, for example if there
is a 50 chance of raining today, it will
change the metrics.
So, in this case, it makes sense, from
normative perspective to take an umbrella.
So, the idea is that during the
decision making process we integrate
probabilities of outcomes.
And the values of outcome so its called
expected utility theory.
This is very influential normal to
economic theory so just as
we pay attention to the probabilities and
the values of our outcomes.
So, this is very influential theory but of
course as we know from
the number of behavioral economic studies
this series doesn't explain.
Our behavior, our decisions perfectly
well.
There are very serious deviations from the
predictions of this theory.
But, this theory nicely captures that we
integrate
probabilities and values during the
decisions we make.
So how to investigate, the process of
integration of probabilities and values in
our brains.
We can use paradigms suggested by Brian
Kinutson word so here
at the beginning of the trial, subject can
see a cue
and vertical line codes the magnitude of
the expiatory word and
horizontal line codes the probability of
the expiatory word, so here.
We can investigate how brain process
expected probabilities, and expect the
three words of how braids integrates both
aspects through the decision making.
So, subject has to press the button when
the white square is presented from the
screen.
And in this case, to indicate the subject
can actually
get a very high reward was a very high
probability.
So as you see, at the end of this trial,
the subject collected $5.
So what Brian Knutson found, that nucleus
accumbens really could expected values.
So, activity of the eventual straight of
the
circumference is proportional correlates
with the expected values.
As you see on the right slide, activity of
nucleus accumbens, perhaps not
ideally correlated with expected value,
but still
correlates with expected value in certain
way.
So, it looks like nucleus accumbens codes
expected values during the decision making
process.
We can actually investigate the same
aspects of decision making using different
paradise.
For example, in this case participants
play cards and then
one case on the left, participant can
guess where
the red card is located so subject in the
first case can open four cards and in this
case can correctly predicted where
the red card is located on the right side
of this slide you can
see another condition when subject can
only open one
card and guess where the red card is
located.
With this manipulation, we can actually
manipulate the probability of outcome.
In the first case, there was a high
probability
to get positive outcomes, then in the
second place.
We can also manipulate the amount of money
subject expects to get during this game.
So with this game, this paradigm, we can
make
a look what is going inside the nucleus
accumbens.
So here, you see that activity of nucleus
accumbens
is proportional to the expected magnitude
of the reward.
On the right side of the slide you see
that nucleus
accumbens particularly strongly activated
when subject
is expecting to get higher reward.
At the bottom of this slide you'll see
that
also nucleus accumbens reacts to the
probability of the outcome.
So, activity of the nucleus accumbens is
particularly strong
when subject expect to get rewards with
highest probability.
So actually, the same region encodes
probabilities and values.
If we will make a look to this map of the
activity of the nucleus accumbens, you see
that different regions' coding
probabilities and reward magnitudes
are presented here by different colors and
this regions are overlapped.
Look.
So, overall it looks like nucleus
accumbens
is involved into the calculation of
utility.
It processes expected rewards.
So, it actually estimates the probability
of the outcome.
And it also estimates their amount of
values related to the outcomes.
So, we can make some intermediate
conclusions
about the functional role of the nucleus
accumbens.
So, first of all, as I suggested, from
neuroeconomic perspective, our values
are simply the firing grades of certain
neural populations.
So, it looks like nucleus accumbens code
anticipated gains.
Anticipated gains magnitude during the
decision making.
And also looks like, that certain neural
populations of nucleus accumbens.
The code expected magnitude of the reward.
In some populations, code probability of
getting the reward.
So, it looks like, this is a key region
for the calculation of the expected
utility during the decision making
process.
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