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1726 M SLreeL, nW ! SulLe 1100 ! WashlngLon, uC 20036 ! 1 202.776.9066 ! l 202.776.

9074
WASPlnC1Cn, uC ! 8L8kLLL?, CA ! nLW ?C8k, n? ! LCS AnCLLLS, CA ! 8lCPMCnu, vA
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1o: lnLeresLed ÞarLles
lrom: !oshua ullbarrl and Ceoff Þuryear
8e: 8ecenL Þolllng ln Arlzona's 7
Lh
Congresslonal ulsLrlcL
l

uaLe: !uly 28, 2014

A recenL survey among
llkely AugusL 2014
uemocraLlc prlmary voLers
ln Arlzona's 7
Lh

Congresslonal ulsLrlcL
shows LhaL former SLaLe
8epresenLaLlve 8uben
Callego holds a clear, 8-
polnL lead over Mary 8ose
Wllcox. 1he poll flnds LhaL
Callego has sLrengLhened hls poslLlon slnce Lhe sprlng and LhaL Wllcox's
aLLacks on Callego have backflred, damaglng her own favorablllLy raLlngs
wlLhouL affecLlng Callego's. As Lhe campalgn heads lnLo lLs flnal monLh lL
ls clear LhaL glven Lhe resources, Callego ls ln a sLrong poslLlon Lo wln Lhls
race.

Callego's conLlnued lead ls fueled by Lwo maln facLors:

#$%&'( )*&+$'* ,$-./01& 2''2.3&( 42--*5/ $& 6/%* +/+7-2% '829 8* :2& 2'
'8* ;*5$99$95 /< '8* .26+2$59 = 29) 8* 82& 5%/:9 &'%/95*%. ln May,
43° of voLers vlewed Callego favorably and 6° vlewed hlm unfavorably
for a neL favorable raLlng of +37. 1oday Callego ls vlewed favorably by
31° of voLers and unfavorably by [usL 11°, for a neL favorable raLlng of
+39. ln oLher words, Callego's poslLlve, lssue-focused campalgn has
lmproved hls popularlLy, even as Lhe Wllcox campalgn made false aLLacks
on Callego over lssues such as hls name.

>*./9)( ,$-./01& 2''2.3& /9 42--*5/ 82?* ;2.3<$%*) 29) &8* $& 6/%*
79+/+7-2% '829 &8* :2& ;*</%* '8* 2''2.3& ;*529@ uurlng Lhls same
perlod, Wllcox's popularlLy has eroded. ln May, 48° of llkely voLers
Cellnda Lake
!"#$%&#'(

Alysla Snell
!*"('#"

uavld Mermln
!*"('#"

8oberL C. Meadow, Þh.u.
!*"('#"

uanlel 8. CoLoff
!*"('#"

!oshua L. ullbarrl
!*"('#"

8oberL x. Plllman
+,%#- .%'*'/%*0 1--%/#"

Amy ?oung
+,%#- 12#"*(%'3 1--%/#"




8uben Callego for Congress - !uly 2014 2

Lake 8esearch ÞarLners
vlewed Wllcox favorably and 27° vlewed her unfavorably for a neL favorable
raLlng of +22. 1oday, [usL 40° vlew her favorably and 30° vlew her unfavorably,
for a neL favorable raLlng of only +11, whlch ls 11 polnLs lower Lhan before her
aLLacks on Callego began.

A8* $6+-$.2'$/9& 2%* .-*2%B 42--*5/ $& -*2)$95 29) $& :*-- +/&$'$/9*) '/ ;*./6*
C%$D/921& 9*0' E*6;*% /< F/95%*&&. As Lhls campalgn enLers lLs flnal sLages, Callego
holds a slgnlflcanL lead over Wllcox and ls vlewed much more favorably Lhan her.

l
E*'8/)&: Lake 8esearch ÞarLners deslgned and admlnlsLered Lhls survey and lL was conducLed by Lelephone uslng
professlonal lnLervlewers !uly 20-22, 2014. 8oLh landllnes and cell phones were called. 1he survey reached a LoLal of
400 llkely AugusL 2014 uemocraLlc Þrlmary voLers ln Arlzona's 7Lh Congresslonal ulsLrlcL. 1elephone numbers for Lhe
sample were generaLed from a llsL of reglsLered voLers ln Arlzona. 1he daLa were welghLed sllghLly by race, age,
reglon, parLy reglsLraLlon, and gender. 1he margln of error ls +/- 4.9° and larger for subgroups.

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