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The

Future
of Companies
Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
P2 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Contents
Introduction
Executive Summary
Global Conditions 08
Economic growth
Growth industries 08
Population growth 08
Education
Fit for purpose? 12
Quantity or quality? 13
The foundations of a new system? 14
Talent Wars
A changing of the guard 15
Scarcity and plenty 16
Shortages all round 17
Corporate strategies to cope with talent wars 17
Ageing Societies
Greying societies 18
Booming wealth 18
Unretirement 18
Life expectancy 19
Obesity 19
The Environment and Resources
Food and water 21
Business responds 22
Company dynamics
Outsourcing
Demand side 24
Supply side 25
Externalising Innovation
Learning to connect and develop 26
P3 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Company dynamics cont... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Corporate Structure and Business Models
Future trajectories 28
SaaS and Open Source 29
The era of the Mash-Up business model 30
The rise of the networked company 30
Portfolio working rising? 30
Generational Issues and Values
Future trajectories 31
Is the tail wagging the dog? 31
Tensions 34
Shared values 34
Culture
United nations? 36
Technology and Communication 38
Growth of the internet 38
Communication: Avatars and the 3D world 39
Virtual training 39
Smart phones 40
New payment methods 40
VOIP Internet telephone calls 40
ipTV - Internet television and video 41
Communicating with customers: Word of Mouth 41
Shaky foundations? 42
Information risk management 42
Moores law and humans 43
Social Networks
Business doubts 44
The value to business 44
Advertisers dream 45
Conclusions 46
Action 47
About the author 48
About Global Futures and Foresight 49
About Shirlaws 50
References 51
P4 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Introduction
This White Paper explores some of the powerful forces
set to change the way we do business around
the world in the near future. Not just how we do
business, but who will do it and where we will do it and
under what conditions
Drawing on a range of published resources, which are
fully acknowledged, the purpose of this paper is to alert the
reader to the drivers of change likely to impact their
organisations and to propose potential outcomes
and raise questions which will help the reader better
prepare their business for the future.
P5 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Executive
Summary
Since people started trading we have continually changed how we undertook business to
suit the circumstances prevailing at the time, from the frst cash crops bartered for goods and
services to sophisticated international exchanges and the formation of global corporations
As trade has become more complex, increasingly global and faster we have adapted
to these changes creating new organisations such as DHL, and the World Trade Organisation
and new tools such as ebay and paypal Its highly unlikely that the way we currently organise
ourselves for business will remain the same for very long either
Peter Drucker, the management guru, foretold the end of the corporation as we know it
today back in 2000 We at GFF have been tracking the rise of the networked company
for seven years Our research now tells us that nearly four out of fve of us believe that the
networked company is likely to become the preferred model for business in the next fve years
Understanding which structure of company will be the successful model of the future is
important Understanding that the existing models are unlikely to prove successful for very much
longer is even more important however Understanding that we need to change is the rst step
towards embracing change
For many years companies have been seeking to reduce cost by engaging with other
companies who can bring their expertise and focus to bear on their own processes and
thereby reduce costs, thus outsourcing was born This has accelerated in recent years as
technology has allowed some functions of the business to be performed overseas in lower
labour-cost markets This is unlikely to stop but there is plenty of evidence now that doing this
purely for cost savings over a long term can be a risky strategy Engaging with third parties in a
fexible manner gaining benefts of improved service and innovation is likely to be the new reason
to engage with external companies in the future
Our labour resources are changing at an even faster pace than ever Generally populations are
ageing rapidly and the mix of cultures and nationalities now making up our nations workforce
is changing faster than before Europe, the USA and Australasia are experiencing some of
the fastest changes in demographics, which will result in a very different make up of citizens,
customers and staff available to them than today Responding to this is todays challenge
P6 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
The world economy is set to grow at about three percent a year for the next
decade, with certain states, such as China, India, Brazil, Mexico and others pulling ahead of this
average There will only be three of the existing G7 in the top seven economies in the world in
the next few decades and that will have a profound affect on the culture and business norms of
international trade
Technology is about to blow us away in its ability to enable global communication.
Be prepared to see moving images, television and video on every device as the IP (internet
protocol) revolution continues and information in all its forms converges on this standardised
transport layer The young people around the world intuitively engage with this capability, which
is one of the reasons we have seen an explosion in the take-up of social networks in the last
fve years Today over one billion people around the world are connected in social
networks If you arent ask yourself why?
The next revolution even the next big thing is very likely to be online virtual worlds These
worlds are populated by avatars (graphical representations of people) interacting with one
another, exchanging information and ideas and buying and selling to one another As your service
costs increase, how much simpler might it be if your customers engaged with you in a
virtual world with avatars that are sometimes operated by real people and at other times by
artifcial intelligence systems think how much lower cost that might be?
Some would argue that our education systems have let us down, that they are not producing
graduates with the critical and analytical attitudes and capabilities suited to todays changing
and challenging markets Global corporations are increasingly engaging with the educators to
increase their chance of being able to hire appropriately trained and developed graduates for
their frms What we do know is that the emerging economies, as the fast developing, non-
industrialised parts of the world are frequently referred to, are in dire need of management,
technical and engineering staff and their education systems are currently not able to supply them
These economies will be looking abroad to recruit the talent they need So whether you like it or
not, whatever business youre in youre just as likely to be competing with Dubai,
India and Kazakhstan for your new employees as with the rm down the street.
P7 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Today, we are well aware that the world is warming and that there is a strong body of
evidence that mankind is contributing to this warming The consequences of global warming,
if left unchecked, is likely to be 100 million climate refugees by 2050, sea level rising by
up to 20 feet over the same period and world shortages of food and fresh water At a time when
global populations are set to rise by another 2.5 billion people, can we ignore these
warnings? Most companies are reorienting their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) energies
to face this crisis head-on and become part of the solution To do this effectively however, we
may need to look to halve our waste and carbon based energy usage and reduce our use of the
wrong sort of packaging and limit our carbon mileage (transport using carbon energy sources)
If the public are increasingly convinced of the necessity to embrace the above changes,
companies who have not yet responded may be forced to change, through government
intervention or through market forces
Put together; changing people, changing planet, changing technology, changing
education, changing global wealth will all have a profound impact on how we do business,
where business is done around the world and who sits on its governing bodies Its forecast that
in the next thirty years China will overtake the US as the worlds largest economy, I wonder what
impact that will have?
All of these issues and more are discussed in this report, which has been compiled with the aim
of helping you better understand the future and therefore being better prepared for
the future Please let us know how you get on and if we can help you in any way wed be
delighted to support you.
David A. Smith
Chief Executive
Global Futures and Foresight
P8 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Global Conditions
There are many factors impacting upon the issues companies are likely to face in the future,
many of which are specifc to the industry, location, size, or stage of development of the individual
organisation There are however, some important drivers of change at the macro level which are
increasingly likely to impact frms around the world
These drivers can be summarised as political, economic, social, technological, legal and
environmental This paper will examine; economic growth, population change, education, access
to talent, ageing societies, environmental sustainability and resource shortages We will also
look at the likely development of outsourcing, the externalising of the innovation process and
organisational structures, generational and culture issues, technology and communications
trends and the impact of social networks
These drivers of change have the potential to radically change how we lead our lives and
undertake business in the next few years
Economic Growth
The next 15 years (see diagram next page)
Almost 40% of the increase in global GDP in the coming 15 years will come from China (27%)
and India (12%)
1
The other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies will only contribute
2% each The United States, which will account for 16% of the worlds growth, will remain a
world leader and will continue to outpace other major developed economies between now and
2020, growing by an average 3% a year That is greater than the 21% forecast for the EU 25
China will have closed the gap in economic size with the US by 2020 and Asia will increase its
share of world GDP, measured at purchasing power parity/PPP, from 35% in 2005 to 43% in
2020 The annual growth rate of the world economy will likely range between 32% and 29%
until 2020
2

The shift in economic growth will likely manifest itself in altering global consumer spending
patterns As a percentage of global spending, the US will decline from 325% to 309%
from 2005 to 2020 The EU 25 will also drop by 49% down to 223% Russian spending
will increase more than 100% to 27% whilst China will nearly triple its share to 84%, up
from 33% in 2005 This degree of radical change in spending patterns will likely alter the
consuming economies and the consumer product producers design and focus of attention
P9 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Share in world GDP (at PPP ) (%)
Share in world Consumer Spending (%)
2010
2005
2020
US 20.8
EU 21.0
Asia 35.7
of which
China 13.7
India 6.2
Japan 6.7
South Korea 1.8
Russia 2.6
Latin America 7.7
Middle East
and North Africa 4.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.9
Other 6.2
US 20.3
EU 20.2
Asia 39.5
of which
China 16.6
India 7.2
Japan 6.0
South Korea 1.8
Russia 2.7
Latin America 7.7
Middle East
and North Africa 4.2
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0
Other 3.3
US 19.0
EU 19.1
Asia 43.2
of which
China 19.4
India 8.8
Japan 4.5
South Korea 1.9
Russia 2.5
Latin America 7.6
Middle East
and North Africa 4.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6
Other 2.5
US 32.5
Japan 9.8
EU 27.2
of which
France 4.5
Germany 6.2
Italy 3.9
UK 5.4
China 3.3
India 1.9
South Korea 1.5
Russia 1.3
Brazil 1.6
Mexico 1.9
US 30.9
Japan 6.6
EU 22.3
of which
France 3.4
Germany 4.6
Italy 2.6
UK 4.4
China 8.4
India 3.0
South Korea 2.2
Russia 2.7
Brazil 1.4
Mexico 1.4
Note: The EU is expected to have 28 states in 2010 and 33 in 2020.
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
Note: The EU is expected to have 28 states in 2010 and 33 in 2020.
Source Economist Intelligence Unit.
2005
2020
P10 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Growth Industries
Driven by technology
The energy, defence and nanotechnology industries are all set to record strong growth
Governments and businesses worldwide spent $59 billion in 2006 on what is being called the
homeland security industry due to its recent growth in the US The market for security goods and
services is to increase to $178 billion in 2015, or triple its current value, whilst another major attack
such as 9/11 has the potential to balloon the industry to $730 billion Either way rapid growth from
Europe, China and India is expected to leave the US with a 42% market share by 2015
3

Nanotechnology in the Automotive Industry alone holds vast potential, not least as it is seen by
some as the answer to the many issues on sustainability The worldwide automotive industries
turnover in nanotechnologies was $86 billion in 2007 and is forecast to top $542 billion in 2015 By
2020 nanotechnology in the automotive industry is expected to hit $1374 billion It is also estimated
that more than 95 applications from nanotechnology will enter cars in the next fve years alone
The market volume of renewable energy worldwide is set to increase from $958 billion in 2007
to $1244 billion in 2010 and $1981 billion in 2015
4
It should also be noted that the above list
does contain some major omissions - it is only meant to alert the reader to the extent to which
technological innovation can revolutionise, rejuvenate or even create an industry The issues for
business will be how to adapt and change to the new opportunities in terms of staffng with talent,
understanding it, making it work effciently whilst making a positive social contribution
P11 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Population Growth
The overall world population is expected to reach about 91 billion by 2050 according to the UN
The United States, UK and Australia will all see growth in their workforces out to 2030 The story
is quite different in continental Europe only Norway is set to experience anything other than a
shrinking workforce
It is evident that much of the increase in global population will be due to longer life spans
rather than rising birth rates Of the major economies, only India will see a gain in the share of
the 15-59 age cohort in the period to 2050, according to UN statistics By contrast Australia,
US and UK will all experience a loss of 5 to 10% of this age group, whilst Turkey, Indonesia,
Mexico and Brazil will all experience a decline of around 5% and China will see a 15% reduction
in this age cohort
These forecasted declines in the size of the workforce available to hitherto well-supplied
economies will undoubtedly impact on how work is organised and expose industries most at
risk from these labour shortages Automation and off-shoring of work have emerged as leading
means of supplementing dwindling labour forces and to reducing unit labour costs overall In
Europe the recent accession of thirteen new countries has resulted in dramatic migrations of
workforce from Eastern Europe to the west leaving the new entrant EU states with an even more
severe labour problem than the existing members This migration of labour has been particularly
acute amongst the better educated workforce who fnd themselves welcome in many countries
Indeed, education amongst the higher labour cost countries is a vital issue in their drive to
develop service and Intellectual Property (IP) driven economies
5
Most advanced economies face shrinking workforces.
The U.S. is an exception
P12 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Education
High schools are obsolete,
Bill Gates
6

Education is behind the curve compared with other sectors of society,
Chandru Rajam, CEO of online assignment grading specialist, EduMetry
7
.
In a recent business survey,
8
nearly 90%
9
of respondents said that the core competencies
needed by their companies were changing, with half of those saying it was changing by a high
degree In an era where art and design students are actively recruited into in-house management
schemes, and creativity and innovation increasingly drive bottom line margins, the nature of work
is set to change at an increasingly rapid pace
Deutsche Bank believes that by 2020 the project economy will deliver 15% of value creation in
Germany
10
(in 2007 the fgure was about 2%) The project economy usually refers to temporary,
collaborative and frequently global processes of value creation Likewise Developing the Future,
a recent survey from Microsoft reveals that the knowledge economy, which includes fnancial
services, information technology, business services and the creative sector, accounts for 40 per
cent of gross domestic product and is expected to rise to 50 per cent by 2010 in the US
Fit for purpose?
Existing education systems were designed in the 19th century to produce workers for industrial
jobs Now, and in the future, companies need graduates equipped with different, more-exacting
skills than before, and education systems are struggling to respond The problem with many
school systems, according to Sir Ken Robinson
11
, is that education doesnt promote creativity
It actually does the opposite
12
Many governments have responded by increasing testing in an
attempt to show improvements, but experts within the corporate world and outside alike believe
that this is mere tinkering with the system rather than the wholesale change some say is needed
As a result of this dissatisfaction with the existing system, some global corporations are deciding
to spend more than ever before on education and developing their own workforces The manner
in which corporations invest in education is also changing Previously, the corporate world would
complain from the sidelines while offering scholarships, adopting schools, and contributing
fnancially to educational institutions Now, partnerships are becoming more common and in
the future outright ownership of educational projects may become the norm for companies
We strongly believe companies should get involved by bringing their expertise, experience and
processes to the table, as well as a willingness to listen and learn, says Will Swope of Intel,
talking about education
P13 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Quantity or quality?
The most important question for business to consider is whether the skills gap is the result
of universities not producing enough graduates, or the wrong kinds of graduates with the
wrong skills?
The problem appears to be one with no clear cut answer For Information Technology (IT) in the
UK it is evidently a lack of numbers that is the issue The IT sector is growing fve times faster
than the economy as a whole, but the uptake of IT-related degrees has almost halved in the last
fve years
13
The issue is compounded by the fact that 70% of information technology graduates
chose jobs outside the profession in 2005-2006
14

Others, such as Tim Ambler, a senior fellow at London Business School and a former executive
with a global company, believe that quality is an issue Education is failing in terms of mental
discipline, application and the 3Rs, he says
Professor Jonathan Gosling, director of the University of Exeters Centre for Leadership Studies,
agrees There is now a much greater recognition of the need for students to integrate their
real-life learning with the new cognitive concepts, he says Exeter now offers leadership training
modules to every undergraduate, no matter what discipline they are in By 2008, every Exeter
graduate should have had some leadership and team-work training, he says
In his second report on skills in the UK, published last year, Lord Leitch outlined some of the
solutions and ambitious targets to make skills at all levels world class To be among the top
eight most skilled countries in the world, the UK will need: 23 million more people with literacy
skills; 51 million more with numeracy skills; 57 million qualifed to Level 2; 21 million at Level 3;
and about 55 million with experience of higher education This is the equivalent of every second
adult in the UK gaining a higher level qualifcation before 2020
15

Even if this were to happen, many do not see this as a sign that the necessary skills would be in
place For example, in 2004 the United Kingdom graduated more media studies students than
physics and chemistry students combined
16

In the United Kingdom over 70% of the 2020 workforce is already over the age of 16 This trend
puts increased importance on the ability to re-skill the existing workforce
17

The foundations of a new system?


Intel: Spends annually more than $100 million to educate more than 4 million teachers in 35
countries about how to incorporate technology into lesson plans
ExxonMobil: Sends current or retired employees into public schools via its Science
Ambassadors program to serve as maths and science teachers In the companys Houston
home base, more than 500 ambassadors volunteer in 22 schools
P14 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
The foundations of a new system? continued
Microsoft: After three years of planning, the Microsoft-designed School of the Future
opened its doors in 2006 The school is being touted as unlike any in the world, with not
only a high-tech building but also a learning process modelled on Microsofts management
techniques The high school uses an education competency wheel, patterned after a set of
desirable traits Microsoft encourages among its employees Offcials, teachers and students
are trained in dozens of skills, including organizing and planning, negotiating, dealing with
ambiguity and managing relationships
US School district CEO Paul Vallas said he was impressed by more than just the companys
technology I was also taken by their culture, Vallas said They created a culture within
which ideas can be generated and acted upon Interestingly the project was paid for by the
Philadelphia School District at a cost of $63 million
18

Conclusions
Depending on the sector of the economy, there is a defnite mismatch between the supply
of quality (or quantity) of graduates and the demands of business Importing the brightest
talents from overseas may also prove more diffcult as the Asian economies overtake those of the
west, and as they do so require more talent than they can skilfully develop Education can and
will change to meet this need, probably through a combination of private and public funding and
running but until it does, continuous in-house training may continue to be the best
mid-term solution
What action have we taken to ensure we attract and retain the best talent?
Do we link with or have any relationship with local education boards/organisations?
Is our company committed to re-skilling the workforce to adapt to future conditions?
P15 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Talent wars
98%
19
of business executives and human-resources professionals polled in a survey in 2007
in the US said that competition for talent was increasing in their industry This sentiment is
frequently echoed globally, but which industries and geographies specifcally are going to be
subject to the greatest pressures?
A changing of the guard
The current situation is one that strikes resonance with much of the common wisdom on
offer namely that Asian countries have a distinct human capital advantage over the western
economies A ManPower survey of 2007
20
reveals that 62 and 61% of companies respectively
in New Zealand and Australia had trouble flling positions in 2007 The US at 41% and France
at 40% along with the UK at 34 and Germany at 27 had high but variable fgures India and
China by way of comparison had fgures of 9 and 19% respectively The key issue is whether
this current advantage is set to continue, and more specifcally, at what industrial level will the
seeming talent gaps in the more developed economies be most acute?
It is estimated that between 2010 and 2025, up to 95 million baby boomers will leave the US
workforce, but that only 40 million members of Generations X and Y will be available to replace
them
21
Similar sentiment is expressed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) It forecasts
the civilian labour force (supply) will grow to 621 million and the jobs available (demand) will grow
to 1645 million by 2014
22
In 2006 the BLS also estimated that 42% of those workers classifed
as Executives, Administrators or Managers were expected to retire by 2008, leaving companies
with close to three million positions to fll
23

The American Petroleum Institute (API) foresees similar struggles in its feld In 2004 the average
age in the US oil industry was 49 The API also indicates that by 2009, there will be a 38%
shortage of engineers and geoscientists and a 28% shortage of instrumentation and electrical
workers In a similar vein, the National Petroleum Council projects a personnel shortage of
approximately 40% as a result of workforce retirements over the next decade to 2014
24

Are projections of a shortfall across what appear to be a number of key sectors in the US
enough to suggest that the US will be the number one victim of the talent war and concurrent
shifting of global labour forces? Not if a study between Heidrick & Struggles, the executive
headhunters and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is to be believed Using a weighting
including demographics, FDI (foreign direct investment) fows, quality of primary and tertiary
education mobility and a host of other metrics, they have forecast in their Global Talent Index
2007 (GTI) that by 2012, the US will actually be ranked no1 in terms of talent
25

P16 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight


Part of the reason for the seeming paradox of the US facing a multitude of talent-related
problems and yet ranking frst in the Global Talent Index is that its problems are not exclusively
internal indeed they are a refection of a global phenomenon This phenomenon is accentuated
by, but not caused by, the ascent of China and India into the globalized world
Scarcity amid plenty
According to Nasscom, the Indian software organisation
26
, every year over three million graduates
and post-graduates are added to the workforce in India Yet only 25% of the technical graduates
and 10-15% of graduates from other felds are considered employable by the growing IT
sector It is noted that even after employing these graduates, most companies have to spend a
considerable amount of time and resources on their training, so as to develop the skills required
by their industry And so despite its current position of having a strong human capital pool, India
is prone to the same pressures evident in the US Nasscom predicts that by 2010 India could
face a shortfall of 500,000 IT professionals This challenges the widespread belief that the West
cannot compete with such a low cost pool of almost inexhaustible labour, or at least to the notion
that talent is infnite in a land of over a billion people
More importantly, talent shortages in places such as India and China are rapidly infating prices
putting more doubt on outsourcing as a holistic method of mitigating domestic shortages Wages
in Indian outsourcing operations are reportedly growing at 15% a year
27
The situation in China
is similar - a recent McKinsey report, titled Addressing Chinas Looming Talent Shortage, said
surveys had shown that fewer than 10% of Chinese graduates across a range of technical and
professional disciplines would be suitable for employment in foreign companies
28
Arguably rapid
growth in both economies form part of the explanation given both the demand from domestic
industries and western affliates keen to capitalise on such potentially lucrative markets But such
booming rates of growth are not evident in Europe, Australasia or the US
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012
rank Country Rank Change
GT l
2012
GT l
2007
United States
United Kingdom
Canada
Netherlands
Sweden
China
0
+2
-1
-1
0
+2
53
48
47
46
45
44
52
46
47
46
45
42
7
8
9
10
11
12
2012
rank Country Rank Change
GT l
2012
GT l
2007
Germany
Australia
France
India
Spain
Malaysia
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
44
43
43
41
37
37
43
43
41
39
37
37
P17 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Shortages all round
By 2012 the UK will need an extra 19,000 skilled foreign IT migrants to fll the skills gap
29

In Australia the talent war is set to intensify in the long term During the 2020 2030 period,
125,000 new entrants will annually enter the Australian workforce, compared with 170,000 now
30

For the EU as a whole, IDC estimates a shortage of skilled people of some 350,000 in 2008,
representing a skills gap of 139% in 2008
31

Corporate strategies to cope with talent wars
Contrary to what be might be expected, a lot of companies arent taking the remedial steps
needed In the aforementioned SuccessFactors survey, 75% of respondents wanted their company
to concentrate on developing a real, useful talent management program, but only 57% said their
companies had a real plan to identify, develop, and retain talent Given the nature and size of the
defcits evident in some industries, this should be of concern to the other 43% From a western
point of view, the gravity of the situation is accentuated by the arrival of Gen Y which as a cohort
has very different expectations and ideas about the world of work and the meaning of loyalty
Nevertheless, companies have started the process of innovating their talent-attracting methods
Any employee joining P&G India has access to a car loan at no interest on the frst day They are
also eligible for a housing loan after three years at P&G and they can take the loan more than once
32

Why is it that the big accountancy frms top the most desirable places to work for Generation
Y? Arguably because these companies are acutely aware of what young people want Deloitte
for example has invested a lot of time and money in studying generational issues and within that
company, workers move laterally or up or down depending on their personal goals and career
aspirations Such fexible corporate structures are one such strategy that can differentiate a
business from potential rivals in attracting, and more importantly, retaining, the best talent
Conclusions
Demographics in western economies and the emergence of Asia may have contributed to the
skills gap in the west indeed the speed of Asian growth is surely one of the reasons that India
and China themselves are beset with imminent talent shortages in key sectors However the
underlying driver that links western and Asian economies with regards to talent appears to be
structural How is it that the world has more people than ever competing in the global economy
and yet a scarcity of talent? Education
How does our companys talent attraction and retention policy differentiate
us from our eld competitors?
Do we know the specic demographic prole for our industry and customers?
Do we have a global talent sourcing programme beyond outsourcing?
P18 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Ageing Societies
Greying societies
In 1957, the year of the European Unions founding, every one of the 27 countries that are now
EU members had fertility rates above 21 (the replacement level); now none does The EUs
overall population will fall by 7m by 2050 Europes share of global population will fall from 12%
now to 7% by 2050
33

By 2015 the EU will have 26% more people in the 50-74 age bracket and a third more aged over
65 This will be accompanied by a 16% decline in the 15-44 cohort In the United States, the
proportion of the population aged over 65 years is projected to increase from 124% in 2000 to
196% in 2030
34
The story is similar in Australia where those aged 65 and over are expected to
account for around 22 per cent of the population by 2040
Booming wealth
In Australia, boomer discretionary spending is estimated at just over 30% of the discretionary
spending market and is growing Americans over 50 control 75% of the countrys wealth
35
In
2004 the UK baby boomers held 80% of the UKs wealth and bought 80% of all top of the range
cars, 80% of cruises and 50% of skincare products
With older people controlling such high percentages of national assets, expect more and more
businesses to increasingly re-orient their marketing to target this cohort Perhaps the only
uncertainty surrounding this group is the affect of any housing bubble burst More baby boomers
(78%) own their own home than any other UK age group
36
- any prolonged downturn may
strongly affect spending in this cohort In the US the typical Boomer household holds nearly half
of their wealth in the form of housing equity It is estimated that a return to 2002 house prices
(from 2007 levels) would lower the typical Boomer households net worth by 14%
37
We have yet
to understand the full impact of the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market on wealthier
Boomers They may not have taken out these mortgages themselves but they may have
investments linked to this market
Unretirement
Some 712% of Japanese men in their early 60s were working in 2003, far higher than the
15% fgure in France, 33% in Germany, and 57% in the USA
38
With Japan leading the greying
of societies and with insuffcient immigration to replace their ageing workforce, could this be a
foreshadowing of events to come in other advanced economies? Research suggests that this is
already happening In the United States, 66% expect to work for pay after retiring Of these 27%
plan to keep working to make ends meet and 19% so that they can afford extras
39
P19 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
In the UK the under-employment of older people is currently costing the economy 12 billion
each year, possibly as much as 30 billion If older people become economically active, says the
TUC (Trades Union Congress), both the supply of labour and older peoples spending on goods
and services would increase
Life Expectancy
As scientists identify new remedies for life-shortening ailments we can expect to see life
expectancy continuing to lengthen year after year Since 1945 life expectancy of citizens living in
the wealthier countries around the world has increased by one year in every fve The American
Life Extension Institute believes that average life expectancy in the US will reach 100 by 2029,
in just 21 years Some scientists hold strong views that ageing is a curable disease and that in
our own lifetimes it may be curable and life expectancy of even mature adults extend to 500 or
even 1,000 years of age
40
Even a fraction of this life expectancy increase challenges any idea that
we should retire in our 60s But of course there are always pandemics, which we are warned to
be alert for, which could wipe out millions of people in a few months The last major worldwide
pandemic was the infuenza outbreak of 1918, when around 40 million people died The other
current challenger to an older workforce is obesity, a by-product of our wealthier and more
sedentary lifestyles
Obesity
The impact of obesity on business in the US is signifcant, weighing in at $13 billion annually
in direct health costs combined with the costs of disability, absenteeism and lost productivity
Companies today are paying about eight% more in health claims costs alone due to overweight
and obesity
41
The obesity trend is a global phenomenon according to the World Health
Organisation (WHO) By 2015 23 billion adults will be offcially overweight with a further 700
million classifed as obese If this comes to pass it would imply a 45% increase in the number of
overweight people and a massive 75% increase in those who are obese
42
This would impose a
greater fnancial burden on business worldwide and further reduce the availability and quality of
labour available for them to hire
P20 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Conclusions
Ageing societies and their associated conditions will have an impact on both the supply and
demand for businesses products and services Companies deemed to be in any way ageist may
come under increasing scrutiny with the rise of grey power Similarly, companies may be missing
out on major opportunities if they do not seek to market to this age group, or employ their talents
in their workforce
Are we actively encouraging workers to stay on after age 65? How are we accommodating this?
Do we actively encourage healthier eating within our business?
To what extent is our current product or service range geared to the needs of older people?
P21 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Available
to use
EU Australian
Consumption
Californian
Consumption
The Environment and Resource shortages
If everyone around the world lived as those in America, we would need fve planets to
support us If the rest of the world led the kind of lifestyles as in Australia, we would require
three-and-a-half planets to provide the resources we use and to absorb the waste
If the world lived as Europeans do we would require three planets worth of resources whilst to
live like Californians would require seven planets
43

Overall, people are consuming the Earths natural resources 20% faster than
nature can renew them
44
It is now also generally accepted that climate change has a large
anthropogenic component
Number of planets required based on regional consumption
Findings of the Recent Stern Report on Climate Change
One% of global GDP must be spent on tackling climate change immediately - it warns
that if no action is taken then foods from rising sea levels could displace up to 100 million
people Concurrently, drought could create tens or even hundreds of millions of climate refugees,
whilst melting glaciers could cause water shortages for one in six of the worlds population
45

The economic impacts of unabated climate change could cost the world 5% of GDP (gross
domestic product) per year However, shifting the world onto a low-carbon path could eventually
beneft the global economy by $25 trillion a year By 2050, markets for low-carbon technologies
could be worth at least $500bn
46

Food and water


The global demand for water already exceeds supply by 17% whilst the World Bank estimates
fresh water demand will double every 21 years
47

Global agricultural output must at least double over next 30 years to meet the projected
population growth This is problematic on at least three fronts The frst is that agriculture already
P22 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
consumes 65% of our global water use and by 2020, the world will have an additional two billion
people who will need feeding The additional population will also require at least additional 20%
more water than is currently available
The second problem is that global warming has the potential to cut worldwide food production
by 20%
48
and worldwide income from agriculture by 16% by 2020
49
just as further production
is needed
The third is that existing land under cultivation around the world is increasingly being set aside
for the growth of bio-fuels It is estimated that 40% of the land currently under cultivation in the
EU will be required to grow bio-fuels if the EU is to meet its target of growing 20% of its energy
needs from bio-fuels by 2020
50
By 2010, fve per cent of UK road transport fuel must come from
renewable sources
Business responds
Interest in sustainable business models is moving into the mainstream among banks One
example is that of HSBC, which has committed itself to a more sustainable business model
achieving carbon neutrality in 2005 and monitors the environmental impact of 94% of their total
operations In their words, HSBCs entire corporate responsibility strategy is focused on achieving
sustainable development
It also cooperates with WWF to establish the Investing in Nature project to help restore water
habitats and ensure that water sources are used sustainably
HSBC is also promoting customers switching from paper to electronic statements in order to
reduce paper use The efforts include HSBC donating to Trees for Cities as more users switch
during 2007
51
Far from being solely a western pre-occupation, evidence shows the practice to
be spreading More than 100 banks from 51 countries entered the 2007 FT Sustainable Banking
Awards - more than double the 2006 total The interest in banking sustainability outside the
developed economies is shown by the involvement of fnancial institutions from China, Russia,
Pakistan and Uganda among almost 50 entries from emerging markets
52

The sea change is not confned to banking either Walmart has established three aggressive goals
in their sustainability efforts: the frst is to be supplied 100% by renewable energy This means
that existing stores will be 25% more effcient in seven years and new stores 30% more effcient
in four years The second goal is to create zero waste with the immediate goal of creating a
25% reduction in solid waste in three years In order to meet their third goal of selling products
that sustain our resources and environment, Walmart is aiming to have 20% of the supply base
aligned within three years whilst designing and supporting a Green Company Program in China
P23 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Conclusions
The environment is no longer just an adjunct to business and will consolidate its position as
core to the successful business Increased focus in the future will revolve around water, energy,
waste and food shortages forcing changes in corporate behaviour but also opening a potential
new direction for CSR Opportunities exist for organisations who can fnd economically viable
solutions to position themselves as low carbon energy consumers, low waste producers whilst
conserving water resources
What attempts are we making to mitigate the environmental impact of our business?
Does our CSR policy cover the countries in which we operate?
Can we run our business using half the energy and produce half the waste we do today
if so can we do it now?
P24 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Structural issues
Outsourcing
Although the TPI fgures do not include public-sector contracts, deals worth less than $50 million
or contracts renewed without the use of an adviser, they do perhaps point to a maturing market
There is a raft of evidence that seems to suggest that this may be the case
53

Demand side
A 2007 study by Cap Gemini Ernst & Young shows that only 54% of companies are satisfed with
outsourcing - down from more than 80% a decade ago
54
Added to this, 59% of the FTSE 350
has had to exit, or re-negotiate an outsourcing contract before the end of its term, typically due
to poor service from the supplier
55

There is also a belief, one supported by Gartner, that Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)
contracts save organisations money in the frst year they are in operation but do not necessarily
pay off in the long run Given how cost saving was a major driver of the initial wave of
outsourcing, it is not surprising that many businesses retain this way of conceptualising the
contract However, given wage infation of some 15% (ie in the Indian IT industry), there is
a likelihood of needing to renegotiate contracts Perhaps viewing outsourcing and offshoring
as principally a cost saving measure is approaching its logical end With increasing costs, the
service provider is being forced to add value to justify the increasing supply costs
Number of
contracts
50
$bn
45
40
35
30
133 119
165
169
185
139
03 05 06 07 2002 04
Source: TPI
* First half of the year
Global outsourcing contracts with total contract value > $50m*
Growing pains
P25 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Outsourcing that enables an organisation to gain access to specialist skills, increase its service
quality, create new competencies, or enable refocusing on the bigger picture will become
increasingly in demand This doesnt mean growth will necessarily be impinged upon as the
global market for shared services and outsourcing is expected to grow to $143 trillion by the
end of 2009, from $930 billion in 2006
56
But the drivers behind the growth will almost certainly be
shifting away from costs savings alone towards added-value services
Supply side
A divergence along geographical and technological lines is probable within the next fve to
ten years India, hitherto the worlds outsourcing hub, will retain its pre-eminence but will be
challenged by geographical and technological trends Part of the reason is an expected 30%
shortfall in the Knowledge Process Outsourcing capacity by 2012 in India, owing to labour
shortages and poor institutional readiness to rapidly educate people with the
necessary skills
57

Gartner forecasts that by 2010 about 30% of Fortune 500 enterprises will outsource to three or
more countries, from less than 10% today
58
Estonia, Uruguay, Azerbaijan and Sri Lanka are just
some of the countries attempting to carve niches for themselves in this market Further evidence
that the low-cost, human intensive approach to offshoring is nearing an end is the imminent
impact of emerging human replacement technologies In the next fve to 10 years, software will
increasingly take the place of human gatekeepers and human intervention in business process
outsourcing operations
59
The demand for BPO outsourcing may not be compromised but the
increasing effectiveness of artifcial intelligence (AI) and handwriting and speech recognition
systems will eliminate the need for wholesale job transfers abroad Blended BPO and voice
operations will become more common, perhaps even reducing the political issues that currently
surround outsourcing and offshoring particularly
Conclusion
The nature of outsourcing is set to change - both from demand and supply aspects To leverage
this shift to their advantage, business must focus on building quality outsourcing links that are set
for the long term Business will want to consider taking on these external services primarily for the
acquisition of skills, innovation and the intellectual capital rather than seeing them as long-term
cost reduction strategies
If we outsource now, what benefts do we expect from our provider now and in
fve years time?
Has our company considered outsourcing beyond India and China?
Does the shift to value added outsourcing signal a deepening towards truly globally
collaborative business networks?
P26 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Externalising Innovation
Even the most powerful organisation with a research and development (R&D) centre full of PHDs
cannot hope to have even a small percentage of the potential talent on offer globally In 2005
Ford led the world in corporate R&D spending with $8 billion spent annually on research and
development activities In 2006 the company lost $17 billion and a reported $4,000 on every
car
60
Structural problems aside, analysts pointed to a lack of exciting products or at least a lack
of ones that people wanted to buy Would spreading the ideas net beyond Dearborn, the Ford
headquarters, have helped?
Learning to Connect and Develop
A case study at Procter and Gamble.
As of 2000 the innovation rate (percent of new products that meet fnancial objectives) had
stalled at around 35% at P&G
About 20% of P&Gs ideas, products, and technologies came from completely external
sources and only 10% of those fnally marketed did so
It was estimated that for every P&G researcher there were 200 scientists or engineers
elsewhere who were just as capable of contributing, resulting in a total knowledge pool of
some 15 million people
P&G took some of its internal R&D staff and turned them into external technology and ideas
scouts, thus limiting organisational resistance
Decision making on new ideas was speeded up through a use it or lose it approach that sees
patents sold on if not used
P&Gs open model for innovation now generates in excess of 35% of the companys
innovations rather than the 10% of 2000
45% of the initiatives in their product development portfolio have key elements that were
discovered externally
Through its developed network of over 3 million people, many projects are outsourced or jointly
collaborated on with outside sources
They aim to derive 50% of innovation from external sources up from 20% in 1999 to 35%
today, 45% now have external input
Product launch time from laboratory to roll-out reduced from 36 months to 18
Innovation rate has topped 75%, more than double the 35% seen in 2000 From 2004 to
2006, over 100 new products were launched
P27 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
To maximise the effectiveness of the connect-and-develop efforts, Larry Huston took on the
newly created role of vice-president for innovation and knowledge Each business unit added
a manager responsible for driving cultural change who communicates directly with Huston,
who also oversees the technology entrepreneurs and managers running the external innovation
networks The reasoning lies in developing an integrated company-wide strategy

The ideas tend to be bigger when you have someone sitting at the
centre looking at the companys growth goals, says Huston
61
Conclusion
Return on capital employed within R&D is not in any way guaranteed the right structures need
to be in place as a precursor to success Externalising innovation is set to become a key part of
the innovation mix but requires a radical shake up from the norm today and an end to the not-
invented-here syndrome
How many of our innovation ideas are sourced externally to our organisation?
could this be usefully higher?
To what extent does our network help support our current innovation attempts?
To what extent do we partner with local institutions and alliances?
Venture
Capital
Consumers
Retirees
Suppliers
Contract Labs
Alliances
Research
Institutes
Virtual
Networks
Joint
Development
Partners
Independent
Entrepreneurs
Trade Partners
Individuals
Government
Labs
P G &
P28 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Corporate Structures and Business Models
The corporation as we know it,
which is now 120 years old, is not
likely to survive the next 25 years.
Legally and nancially, yes, but
not structurally and economically.
Peter Drucker, Business 2.0 (08.2000)
Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer says he
no longer thinks of his competition as individual
companies Instead,
Its alternative business models
that well have to compete with
or embrace,But its not the companies,
its the phenomena (of open source)
that present the greatest challenge
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.
The confuence of globalization of markets and labour, the internet and other technologies,
and an ever-competitive business world means that small changes can lead quickly to major
disruptions in business models and indeed entire industries The rate of and need to change is
set to continue to be infuenced by geography and industry
Future trajectories
97% of mergers by UK companies fail to completely fulfl their strategic objectives, whilst
the failure rate for Europe is 91%
62
54% of business leaders said that not properly auditing such
non-fnancial assets increased the risk of making a wrong acquisition
Despite this trend (ostensibly more damaging amongst higher level M&A), there seems to be a
trend amongst larger companies of acquiring venture capital-backed startups much earlier in
their development
63
Although cultures do miss-match and ultimately result in failure, there are
examples of the culture of the smaller partner giving the larger a shot in the arm of innovation
One such example is the 2004 acquisition of Worth Global Style Network (WGSN - akin to the
Reuters of the fashion world) by London-based publisher Emap Following Emaps purchase of it
for $280 million, WGSNs business doubled In return Emap has become increasingly effective at
using the internet as a medium Managing Director, Dharmash Mistry says WGSN gave Emap a
rock-solid new business at a time when Emaps existing model was fagging
P29 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Hewlett Packards corporate culture has been in turmoil in recent years The HP Way, the
companys management code, was once Silicon Valleys innovation model, with executives
mingling with lower-level employees in an attempt to utilise the frms full human capital for its
innovative potential For decades the companys engineer-led approach worked, generating a
fow of popular, affordable, and utilitarian products However, the approach became synonymous
with complacency and high costs Since its dismantling by ex CEO Fiorina starting in 1999, HP
had struggled it had successfully scrapped an increasingly ineffcient system but had done so
at a huge cost to morale The bigger issue presiding over the company was that (They) were
missing the DNA of an organisation that had its fnger on customer desires, says Phil McKinney,
a chief technology offcer of the Personal Systems Group and head of the HP innovation offce
So in 2006 HP launched the Innovation Program Offce, to help buy hip, nimble start-ups for
its huge Personal Systems Group, which makes PCs, mobile devices, and workstations One
such start-up purchased, Voodoo PC, claims to have taken the ultimate wish list from customers
and rolled it into the product line The hope of procuring innovative culture must surely run
the same risks as any merger and is quite the opposite of approaches evident elsewhere of
externalising the operations of R&D Although both models aim to preserve the status quo of
large corporate power, the beginnings of an increasingly networked economy / incubator type
models are discernable
SaaS and Open Source
SaaS (software as a service) is arguably the most disruptive business model to hit not only
software companies but anyone who uses software and is set to solidify as a business model
SaaS is forecast to grow substantially over the next fve years to the point that by 2011, 25% of
new business software will be delivered as SaaS
64


Take law frms since PLC FastDraft (which is
software that produces advanced frst drafts of all transactional documents quickly) was adopted
by Cobbetts, the time spent on the main documents has been reduced by around 70%
65

Not only are some online legal solutions faster and therefore cheaper compared to traditional
lawyering, but in some cases they may be available for free, with online advertising funding the
service Freewilldocscom is already experimenting with an ad-funded business model Darryl
Mountain, in his paper Disrupting conventional law frm business models using document
assembly, argues that most law frms are ripe for disruption He predicts that resistance to
document assembly will be their undoing and that regulatory changes - such as the relaxation
of rules regarding the unauthorized practise of law, and reforms giving law frms greater access
to capital - could be what tips things over the edge
66
Several experts agree that this sea change
represents the greatest threat to small, generalist law frms in the short term
P30 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
The era of the mash-up business model
China will generate new models of internet business that will spill over to the West Jack Ma,
the self-made Chinese internet guru, believes e-commerce will lead Chinas economy into a
new era in which innovation, customer focus and responsible business practicesrather than
relationships with people in powerbecome the main determinants of success
67
Interestingly,
whereas C2C (consumer to consumer) and B2C (business to consumer) models have remained
largely distinct in the West, in China they will continue to blend together, with consumers
visiting single marketplaces to buy from individuals, small retailers and large retailers alike A
growing number of entrepreneurs may buy in volume from China on sites like Alibaba and sell to
consumers on Western sites such as eBay, for example
The rise of the networked company
As companies become increasingly aware of the need to be quick to change and respond
to market conditions, new competitors, changing labour force structures and costs and new
technologies and business models, they may begin to turn away from the hierarchical command-
and-control structure developed for the industrial economies in the 20th century The networked,
agile company will engage, and more importantly, disengage from markets, business partners,
intermediaries, suppliers, outsourcers and geographies faster than ever before The age of
the networked company may be upon us Companies who are adept at managing these
relationships and understanding their markets may well have sustainable advantage over the
own-it-all, command-and-control, highly centralised decision making frm of the past
Portfolio working rising?
More than 20 years ago, management guru Charles Handy predicted that in the 21st century,
more than 50% of jobs would be something other than full-time He envisaged a burgeoning
number of part-time, fexitime, temporary and self-employment options
68
According to the Trades
Union Congress (TUC) in Britain, by 2010 more than four-ffths of male employees and over half
of women employees will still be working full-time, however
69

If employers fail to react to an increasing clamouring for work-life balance, which the TUC and
others believe will intensify in the next few years, then portfolio working (working for many
employers at the same time) may become an increasingly viable option for many sought-after
professionals thus depriving companies of their number one resource human capital
Again this shift is likely to bias certain industries more than others and be driven by further
technological progress
P31 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Conclusion
Kendall Whitehouse, a senior director of information technology at Wharton, notes that
there probably isnt one model that will win out (within software) Instead, you will have a blend
of business models
70
That much is certain, as the life cycles of business models are increasingly
shortened with the advent of disruptive technologies, cultural shifts towards work-life balance
and the rise of alternative business models from China and other emerging countries will require
business to be more agile and responsive than has been the norm in the past The rise of the
networked company a collection of collaborating organisations from around the world with
co-incident short- to medium-term aims is upon us Sustainability is likely to underpin
long-term success
Have we audited and acted upon issues of sustainability in our business model?
Are we aware of our Chinese, Indian or African equivalents and their business models?
Do we have collaborative relationships with external organisations to develop our business?
Generational Issues and Values
Although there is no evidence suggesting that Generation Y (under 30 years of age and older
than 5 years of age) forms a homogenous block globally, the emergence of three generations
within some companies is creating a need for better communication and understanding Whether
as revolutionary or not, as sometimes depicted, the emergence of Generation Y in the workplace
is having an effect
Is the tail wagging the dog?
Generation Y, also dubbed Generation Why or the Selfsh generation are variously described
as lazy, disloyal, in fact nothing more than revolutionary trouble that business is loathe to hire
But, of course we should remember that they are still in their 20s
Demanding fexibility in the workplace, seeking a fast ascension through the ranks and frequently
changing companies are portrayed as characteristic of Gen Y In something approximating a
trickle-up affect, Peter Sheahan, an Australian consultant in workforce trends, believes that the
tightening in the labour market has resulted in a change of behaviour, previously readily attributed
to Gen Y, to a more assertive and demanding employee
P32 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
To better appreciate some of the differences discernable in developed economies between the
age cohorts being discussed, the table below sets out some of their more distinct and important
instincts, values, beliefs and attitudes
Source: Shirlaws Business
Coaching/Booz Allen Hamilton
Builders
60s & 70s
Unstructured
Spontaneous
Interactive
Knowers
X Gen
30s & 40s
Y Gen
20s
Classroom style
Control
Thinkers
Baby Boomers
40s & 50s
Lifestyle
Fun
Community
Self-discovery
Class of values
No absolute
Relational
Security
Work ethic
Country
Advancement
Variety
Freedom
Achievement
Round-table
style Cooperation
Thinkers
Unstructured
Consensus
Feelers
Beliefs, Values
and Motivations
Primary Instinct Think Think Feel Know
Learning and
Leadership styles
Money
Respecting Elders
Loyalty to employer
Sex
Technology
Buying decisions Price Choice Simplicity Relationship
It is not
everything
Give it to me
Scarce Earn it
Serve my boss
Working my way
to the top
Short cut
to the top
Give me
Saturday off
or I quit
Ignorant
Aware
Comfortable
Live and
Breath it
Living Together Online After Marriage On the back seat
Polite Whatever
Seen & not heard
Automatic
P33 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
A 2007 survey by CareerBuildercom
71
points to more pronounced generational gaps in
communications styles and job expectations in the workplace
49% of employers surveyed said the biggest gap in communication styles between Generation
Y workers and older ones is that Gen Y workers communicate more through technology than
in person
25% say they have a different frame of reference, especially in terms of pop culture
87% of all hiring managers and HR professionals say some or most Gen Y workers feel more
entitled in terms of compensation, benefts and career advancement than older generations
74% of employers say Gen Y workers expect to be paid more
61% say Gen Y workers expect to have fexible work schedules
56% say Gen Y workers expect to be promoted within a year
50% say Gen Y workers expect to have more vacation or personal time
37% say Gen Y workers expect to have access to state-of-the-art technology
55% of employers over the age of 35 feel Gen Y workers have a more diffcult time taking
direction or responding to authority than other generations of workers
There is evidence that this is changing business behaviour Sun Microsystems telecommuting
program, for example, has increased to the point that today more than half of Suns employees
work remotely yet Gen Y does not constitute the corresponding%age of Sun employees more
evidence perhaps of Gen Y proving a catalyst for change rather than the actor Sun is not the
only company increasing telecommuting - the Yankee Groups report on mobility trends states,
According to a recent survey of 319 companies, 40% of todays workforce is mobile, defned as
spending at least 20% of their time away from their primary workspace
72
Herein lays an apparent
contradiction - 60 per cent of Gen Y in the US say they want to hear from their managers at
least once a day
73

In 2007 CISCO, the networks infrastructure giant, polled more than 600 business and IT
directors across the UK in companies ranging from 20 to 1,000 employees and found that UK
businesses that embrace new technologies grow faster and hold on to their employees for
longer As was identifed in the Shirlaws/Global Futures and Foresight 2007 survey, business
managers top concern was fnding and retaining talented staff Yet 47% of business managers
said that their company did not allow remote or tele-working and that home working ranked
as the lowest infuencing factor on IT managers technology investment priorities over the next
12 to 18 months Smaller businesses lag behind larger companies in providing the necessary
infrastructure to facilitate home or tele-working In wireless network adoption (41% by smaller
frms versus 64% of larger organisations) and remote or home working capabilities (46% by
smaller companies compared to 67% of larger frms)
P34 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
With employees increasingly asking for the option to work from home for part of their week at
least, companies that adapt to this model of work may fnd it increasingly easy to attract and
retain the talent they have At the very least its one more reason why someone might join you or
stay with you
Tensions
More than 60% of employers say they are experiencing tension between employees from
different generations in the US
The Lee Hecht Harrison
74
survey also found more than 70% of older employees are dismissive
of younger workers abilities And nearly half of employers say that younger employees are
dismissive of the abilities of their older co-workers The differing approach to work between
generations is seemingly complicated and perhaps accentuated by a deeper cultural issue for
example in the US, one in three of Gen Y belongs to a minority
Shared Values
Members of the Generation-Y set have the same work-life concerns as baby boomers, according
to a survey from Robert Half International and Yahoo! HotJobs in Canada Salary, benefts and
professional growth are the top concerns when evaluating job opportunities concludes the report
In fact when polling students in the US for their most preferred work places, the top three
choices for Generation Y are all Big 4 accounting frms
75

Andrea Hershatter, director of the undergraduate business program at Emory University and
veteran of college recruiting believes that Gen Y is inherently conservative
There is a strong, strong millennial dislike of ambiguity and risk,
leading them to seek a lot more direction and clarity from their
employers, in terms of what the task is, what the expectations are,
and job progression.
In China this age cohort are referred to as - Little Emperors
Chinas one-child policy has resulted in a generation of little emperors many Chinese between
the ages of 18 and 24 grew up as the only child in their household
Data from the most recent Gallup Poll of China suggest that the youngest Chinese adults,
especially those in Chinas growing urban sector, are bucking the imperialist and collectivist
traditions of Chinas past and defning themselves as individuals
P35 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
When presented with a list of philosophies toward life and asked which one comes closest to
their own, 37% of urban Gen Y Chinese choose Dont just think about money or fame, but
live a life that suits your tastes Another 15% believe in living for today, as characterized by the
response, Live each day as it comes, cheerfully, without worrying
http://wwwgallupcom/poll/15934/Chinas-Gen-Bucks-Traditionaspx
Conclusions
The workplace of the future will have up to four different distinct generations working
together, requiring better management and placing an increased premium on interpersonal skills
Evidence points to Gen Y being just as conservative as previous generations, but their effect on
the workplace will still be powerful
Has our company designed a communications plan that accommodates generational issues?
Do our Gen Y workers have access to instant feedback?
To what extent have we prepared mitigating factors to help reduce tensions
between generations?
81%
47%
62%
21%
25%
8%
55%
27%
41%
15%
16%
48%
Urban residents 18-24 Urban residents 25 and older
Attended a Western language movie
Purchased Western music/record/CD
Purchased food at an American fast food restaurant
Visited a Western or American-themed
bar/nightclub/restaurant
Visited a Western brand clothing
Read a Western magazine, book newspaper
Which of the following have you, yourself, done within the last 12 months?
P36 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Culture
With the vast majority of baby boomers in the US heading for retirement and Europe greying,
culture within companies will undoubtedly change as corporate decision making further falls into
the realm of Gen X and Gen Y Another interesting adjunct to the rate of change is the cultural
composition of the future workforce
Uniting Nations?
In 2006, 510,000 foreign migrants came to the UK to stay for at least 12 months and at the same
time 400,000 people, more than half of whom were British, emigrated The rate of fight amounts
to one British citizen leaving the country every three minutes The fgures suggest that only
one-sixth of the immigrants were from the states which joined the EU in 2004 with more than
200,000 coming from the subcontinent
76
The net effect on business may not yet have become
apparent The average number of children born to British-born women is 16 and for foreign-born
women
77
in the UK, 22 The highest birth rate in the UK is among Pakistani-born women, who
have an average of 47 children each Last year, 22% of births in the UK were to foreign-born
women Immigrants from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will outnumber their white neighbours
in predominantly Asian cities such as Leicester, Birmingham, Luton and Slough starting in 2019
The white population is also expected to fall in other cities including London The proportion of
white Britons will fall in every region of Britain by 2020
78
Offcial statisticians now expect net
immigration to run at 190,000 a year for many years to come
P37 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
But this trend is not confned to Britain In the US, Latinos account for 137% of the population
and number approximately 40 million today It is estimated that in 2020, one out of six workers
in the US will be Latino; in 2050, it will be one out of four
79
The issue is important in the sense
that only 10% of US Hispanics have a college degree, as opposed to 28% of whites and 20%
of African Americans
80
Of more consequence is that 41% of Hispanics have not fnished high
school Immigrants without a high school degree have 33 children on average, 74% higher than
the 19 children for college graduate immigrants
81

The birth rate of illegal alien women in the US was almost 31 children on average in 2002,
or about 50% higher than the two children natives have on average The birth rate for legal
immigrants is 26, or about one-third higher than that of natives An estimated 280,000 children
were born to illegal alien mothers in 2002
Countries with a points-based immigration system appear to have less bias with regards to birth
rates amongst immigrants Part of the reason is that they usually accept well educated people
- who statistically are more likely to have fewer children Not allowing for variations between
differing groups of migrants, overall migrants and Australian-born women for example have
virtually identical fertility rates Cultural considerations also weigh in the accounting of birth rates,
however within Australia women born in Lebanon had by far the highest fertility rate at 365,
while women born in Hong Kong had by far the lowest at 065
82
Nevertheless with the average
fertility rate forecast to be 085 by 2016, increased immigration looks likely
As of 2005, almost 20% of the population in New Zealand was born overseas
83
Government
projections indicate that the ethnic populations will increase in both the North and South Islands
during the period 20012016 In the North Island, the European, Maori, Asian and Pacifc
populations will increase by 4, 22, 112 and 44%, respectively, while the corresponding South
Island increases are projected to be 6, 26, 95 and 42%
84

Europes native-born workforce will likewise shrink - by 44 million by the middle of the century
with skilled workers forecast to be in especially short supply
85

Conclusions
Mass migration is something of a mixed blessing for business Whilst it helps creates whole
new markets, can lower unit labour costs for a while and can introduce new innovative methods
of working, it will also transform management practice across almost all industries Coping or
otherwise with differing religions, customs and even language will go a long way to differentiating
successful businesses from the failures
Do we cater for different cultures inside our business?
Are we prepared to increase the amount of in house training offered in order to source talent?
How do the statistics t in, if at all, with our recruitment and CSR policies?
P38 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Technology and Communication
Technology... is a queer thing. It brings you great gifts with one hand,
and it stabs you in the back with the other.
C.P. Snow, New York Times, 15 March 1971
86
For a list of all the ways technology has failed to improve the quality of
life, please press three.
Alice Kahn.
Questions concerning which technologies to adopt, the lead time in implementing them, along
with the level of employee and customer acceptance are key issues for business today Given the
rate of increase of technological progress, the days of technological ambiguity for business may
be drawing to an end indeed a technology-led consumer evolution is already underway
Growth of the internet
It took 36 years for the Internet to attract its frst billion users, which was achieved in 2005 The
second billion will probably be added by 2015 with most of these new users in Asia The third
billion will be harder, and might take until 2040 to be reached
87

The dominant business model on the internet today is making money by giving things away
Much of that is merely the traditional media model of using free content to build audiences and
selling access to them to advertisers An increasing amount of internet business falls into the
free-sample model Because it is so cheap to offer digital services online, it doesnt matter if 99%
of your customers are using the free version of your services so long as 1% is paying for the
premium version After all, 1% of a big number can also be a big number
In 2008, the year of free, Yahoo! will go one better than Google and expand its free webmail to
infnity More music labels will give away music as a promotion for concerts, following Princes free
distribution of his album in Britains Daily Mail in 2007 and Radioheads offer to let fans choose
their price - free, if they wantwhen they download the latest album And more newspapers will
publish their content free on the internet
All this marks a pattern When the cost of serving a single customer is trending to zero, smart
companies will charge nothing Today, the disrupters motto is Be the frst to give away what
others charge for as long as thats not your only means of income! If you listen to the technology,
it makes sense
88

P39 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight


Communication: Avatars and the 3D world
IBM has introduced a new customer
interaction model that could be a prelude
to a new era in services In the summer
of 2007 it announced that a virtual IBM
Business Center is open for business
in Asia What makes this different from
any other contact centre, though, is that
customer-service and technical problems
are dealt with by avatars located in the
virtual realm of Second Life
89
However the amount of electricity needed to create a deeper sense of virtual reality for
example by using avatars to sell fnancial services over the net or else assist in shopping - may
be more of an issue than anybody has hitherto considered It has been estimated that annually
an avatar in Second Life consumes 1,752kWh
90
per year based on the energy consumption of
the technology supporting the avatar and its environment, not far off the average citizen of Brazils
consumption of 1,884kWh It will be interesting to see if these cyber footprints become politicized
in the event of any acceleration of global warming
In any event the promise is clear A whole new customer services workforce can be opened
up - those who need or wish to work from home for example, can be brought back into the
virtual workforce
Virtual Training
PIXELearning, a British company, has developed a simulator for a big international accounting
frm in order to train interns who are fresh out of university The role-playing simulator lets them
develop their skills For example, users can interact with a diffcult client who is being aggressive
on pricing Thus mistakes can be made and learned without any loss of face or loss of client for
the business
91
Fire and rescue services and surgeons are just two of the many other trades and
professions turning to virtual reality to perfect their skills and techniques Many other businesses
make use of virtual worlds - more routinely for communications or meetings across dispersed
geographies Take a look for yourself at wwwsecondlifecom
Avatar of ibmcom General Manager Paula Summa in
IBMs virtual Business Center
P40 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Smart phones
Research indicates that between fve and 6% of
the total 11 billion mobile phone sales this year will
qualify as smart phones, telephones that have text-
messaging, web access and other data services along
with voice Unsurprisingly the market is expanding
rapidly and it is expected that by 2012 at least 18% of
phones will be smartphones Analysts see this rising
to between 35 and 45% by 2015
92
Others forecast
the market segment will grow from 218 million units in
2007 to 426 million units in 2012
93
Smartphones not
only promise to improve the effciency of supply chains
but also to alter working patterns
New payment methods
52 million consumers are forecasted to adopt new mobile technologies such as NFC (Near Field
Communication) and other physical mobile payment methods to pay for everyday goods and
services by 2011 This will help drive the physical mobile payments market to $115 billion by the
same year
By 2011, around 12% of the total mobile phones in circulation will offer support for contactless
payment, specifcally NFC - equating to nearly 470 million NFC-enabled handsets worldwide,
thereby providing a signifcant marketplace for retailers to offer goods via mPayment
applications
94

Pioneering m-banking projects are to be found in the Philippines, Kenya and South Africa
95
These
branchless schemes allow customers to deposit and withdraw cash through a mobile operators
airtime-resale agents, and send money to other people via text messages The texts can then be
exchanged for cash by visiting an agent Workers can then be paid by phone; taxi-drivers and
delivery-drivers can accept payments without carrying cash around; money can easily be sent
to friends and family A popular use in these three aforementioned countries is to deposit money
before making a long journey and then withdraw it at the other end, thus making the journey
safer for the individual
VOIP (Voice over IP (telephone calls over the internet))
Being able to make telephone calls over your Internet service without incurring time-based
calling charges is already established practice for many people at home It is however, the rarity
within businesses of any size Their Information Technology departments have carefully built and
balanced the traffc across their corporate networks, frequently limiting the size of documents
P41 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
documents being transmitted by its users and limiting access to applications capable of
generating large scale data traffc Smart employees have been calling their friends across the
world from home at no cost, other than their monthly service providers broadband fee, for a
couple of years In an era when we will need to communicate evermore with distant suppliers,
customers, staff and intermediaries we may need to consider seriously, encouraging the use of
better communications tools such as Skype and allowing employees to videoconference with
your stakeholders whenever they can
The market for VoIP applications in Western Europe was worth $1948 million in 2006; by 2011
this market is expected to have grown to around $225 billion, with a CAGR of 631% In the
US VoIP service providers are expected to capture 22% of all local exchange carriers existing
customers between 2006 and 2010
96

ipTV internet protocol TV (Television and video over the internet)
ipTV has the potential to destroy the distinction between consumers and suppliers, as consumers
create and distribute their own entertainment The number of ipTV service subscribers worldwide
is forecast to reach 726 million in 2011, up from 135 million in 2007 Europe is expected to
remain the number one ipTV market in terms of subscriber numbers through 2011, with Asia
catching up quickly
97
The potential disruption to business models ranging from those in media to
retail is huge
Can you imagine the day when all your home technology can connect seamlessly and work
Television, video, sound, music and phone calls have all become digital and are all converging
around the ip (internet) protocol
Communicating with customers: Word of Mouth
Word of mouth marketing (WOM) grew 377percent in 2007
98
, largely due to a decline in
consumer use of traditional media and a consumer shift towards digital alternative media Total
WOM marketing expenditures are projected to climb at a compound annual rate of 304% in
the 2006-2011 period to $37 billion as brand marketers take advantage of dedicated word-of-
mouth strategies for improved return on investment Helping to fuel this growth are a projected
35 billion brand-related conversations per day in the US, with nearly 80% of consumers trusting
recommendations from family, friends and infuential persons over all other forms of advertising
and marketing
99
Whether the use of social networks will help to establish this form of marketing
remains to be seen but the potential is certainly there
P42 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Shaky foundations?
Several analysts predict a substantial slowing of the Internet by 2010, as it will become
unable to cope with the scale of data being exchanged, particularly video and imagery While
core fbre and switching/routing resources are expected to cope with user demand, Internet
access infrastructure is believed to be inadequate, specifcally in North America Estimates of the
infrastructure investment required vary between $42 billion and $55 billion to provide suffcient
capacity to cope with data growth This is between 60 and 70% more than service providers
currently plan to invest
Between June 2001 and June 2006, the number of homes with broadband in the United States
increased by 599%, from 92 million high-speed lines to 646 million During the same period,
satellite and wireless broadband grew by 5,998%
Average traffc across the net increased 75% last year, while capacity grew 47% Estimates of
what it will cost to build networks capable of meeting an ever-increasing fow of data and then
deliver that capability to every American business and household range from $300 billion to as
much as $1 trillion The potential exists for a two-tier internet that could invariably deepen the
digital divide
100

Information risk management


Doubts about security as well as capacity persist An estimated 60 million people have
had personal data exposed over the last year, resulting in an estimated $20 billion spent on
clean-up costs and lost productivity worldwide In addition, 48% of organisations do not have a
policy for notifying customers when their private data may be at risk Such was the case when
the UK department of revenue and customs (HMRC) lost the detailed bank records of 25 million
citizens in the mail and was unsure when to inform citizens who were at risk Such behaviour will
become increasingly unacceptable to the public as the risk and consequence of having personal
records exposed increases
Business must also consider this: around 120 billion junk messages are sent worldwide every
day, and the spam business is now estimated to be worth $200 billion a year By contrast, the
global Internet security market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 16% over the next fve
years to reach $581 billion by 2010
101
The result of these imbalances, and lets not forget spam
constitutes only part of the grey and black internet economy, suggests that the internet may
remain an unstable platform on which many businesses are being built
P43 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Moores Law and humans
Technology tends to change exponentially while people change incrementally The confict
between an increasingly fast-paced, technology-driven business world and the people it serves
is set to widen further, and signs of the cracks are already evident It is almost certain that new
markets will continually evolve out of the human desire for control to create products and
services that slow down the effects of a speeding up workplace
Few people would deny that sleep is essential to workplace creativity and productivity but given
longer work hours and commuting times, this may not always be possible MetroNaps has
introduced the Energy Pod a nap-enabling device retailing for some $12,000 The device is
essentially a contoured bed, noise cancelling earphones and glass fbre pod that restricts others
ability to see you The thought of taking naps at work may not sit easily with some but employers
as diverse as Procter & Gamble, Cisco, Stanford Medical Center, Carnegie Mellon, and the
Jetsetter Spa at Miami International Airport have all purchased them
102

Conclusion
Technology has the potential to spread creative destruction like no other medium Doubts about
the long-term viability of web-based services and products will remain and perhaps deepen in the
rush to adopt the next new development On the fip side, the potential for a whole new world
of consumer interaction awaits those with the business model and ethics to ensure a smooth,
safe operation
How does our business deal with electronic records of customer information?
Do we have a Second Life or other virtual world presence?
How ready are we for new payment methods?
P44 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Social Networks
The most important role in business, according to Druckers predictions, is to make knowledge
more productive
Why social networking, at the end of this paper? Social networks bring together a number of the
drivers we have been discussing; global reach, the desire and ability to connect with like-minded
people, its a technology that is facilitating and encouraging us to connect particularly visually, our
increasing ability to become portfolio workers through the power of the networks to which we
belong, the potential to provide highly impactful education through 3D, interactive environments
and the potential for avatars to supplement and support our customer service propositions
Business Doubts
Social networking is still viewed by some in the business world as the preserve of bored
teenagers or even worse, bored offce workers Better then to deny access to such sites,
especially since they reportedly cost business in the UK an estimated 132 million per day in
lost productivity
103
Similarly, estimates in Australia claim that Facebook use during company time
costs business up to A$5 billion a year
104
Are these doubts legitimate, and does social networking
have a role to play other than to amuse lonely techies?
Doing Business Networks
Global relationships
Learning
Sourcing ideas
Recruitment
Bilding relationshops
Community engagement
Networked business models
The value to business
Cisco Systems Chairman, John Chambers, has suggested that businesses that integrate
collaborative communications models, such as social networking, into their processes could see
a return of 3 to 5% annual improvements in worker productivity
105

Perhaps the greatest proven asset to businesses in their use of social networks is through a more
relevant way of recruiting LinkedIn, an online network for professionals, signed up its ten millionth
user in April 2007
106
, is one such example 90,000 CEOs are said to have accounts there, as do
P45 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
350 corporates who pay up to $250,000 to advertise jobs to this network Beyond recruitment,
the service provides an easy way to contact experts in given felds: hedge funds are reported to
use it to identify such expertise Lastly what of the skill itself some experts claim benefts even
from non-work-related social networking There are effciency gains Knowing how to know
people is the number one skill in business; networking is a commercially valuable skill, says Dr
Marc Smith of Microsoft
107

Advertisers dream?
A May 2007 report from eMarketer notes the importance of social networks online, estimating
their marketing to reach $25 billion between 2007 and 2011 in the US, a 180% increase from
this year
108
Forecasts like this along with statistics such as TopShop deriving between 5 and 10%
of its traffc from its MySpace profle
109
hype the potential in social networks to drive forward a new
front of advertising Recent announcements by both Facebook and MySpace to hyper advertise
via new platforms that better target the rich seams of data available to them seem to strengthen
the argument that this will become a major source of effective advertising Some still have their
doubts, citing anecdotal evidence that the interpersonal connections (called the social graph) on
such networks are of low quality and degenerate after a certain capacity has been surpassed
110

Conclusions
If the old adage of Its who you know, not what you know, is correct then social networks have a
huge part to play across a range of business processes in the future Companies will increasingly
recruit and advertise using this medium
How do we encourage the use of social networks amongst our employees?
How do we utilise social networks to improve various business processes?
Are we encouraging our IT folk to facilitate this new communications technology?
P46 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Conclusions
Human capital is by no means uniform geographically and this is set to intensify as migration
continues apace to North America, Europe and Australasia The resultant effects of cultural
integration will challenge management skills for business but will also be a potential boon for
those looking to expand their horizons The use of social networks and technology has the
potential to lessen the effects of geographical boundaries as well not only by streamlining the
recruitment process but also by providing training that is often too specifc or else unavailable
whilst in tertiary education
As the rate of technological innovation increases, the key drivers shaping tomorrows business
world will result from the incremental changes that humanity is able to adapt to and adopt Some
drivers are not yet even conceived whilst others have started a sea change within business
Whilst education may largely remain rooted in the Fordist system for now, a re-balancing and
increasing involvement by private sector organisations may better orientate tomorrows workforce
towards necessary skill-sets Given the vested interests and possible public scepticism over such
increasing corporate-based education, in-house training will be vital for companies across the
world currently complaining of talent shortages
Not only must business structures adapt to serve more of the migrant workforces needs,
especially if a tipping point in numbers is reached, but it must accommodate a changing of work
demands Gen Y is not the only generation to demand fexi-time and telecommuting but the more
widespread expectation within Gen Y will force companies to reconsider corporate structures
completely Added to this the forces of creative destruction, which threaten to make obsolete
business models and indeed entire industries, and it is clear that change will happen and in more
complex ways than ever But which direction(s) will it take?
Externalising innovation and the increasing rapidity at which start ups are being bought up both
suggest future possible paths, and different ones at that One, both or a combination of the two
may prove successful depending on the industry, but with costs of replacing legacy systems
escalating, it is clear that larger companies may have a more diffcult time in adapting
Indeed the rate and depth of adaptation to new working practices, technology, management
culture and shifting cultural practices will shape the future more readily than technology itself If
it is true that humans change incrementally whilst technology exponentially, then business must
also be ready for a double tiered scenario; one where it must correctly utilise and enable the use
of the right technology whilst at the same time helping to insulate its employees from the side
effects of an increasingly frenetic world
P47 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
With so much changing at once, locally and across the world, it would be an unusual business
not to be impacted in some fashion or another From change comes opportunity and of course
risk, but one thing becomes clear that standing still is not a viable option for very long
If this paper has stimulated you to consider what the future might have in store for you, your
family, your friends and your business then it has met its primary aim and we wish you every
success in your endeavours to better prepare for the future
Some things to consider in considering the future:
Make Time for the Future
Identify critical trends and assess their impact
Ask you Customer about their future
Encourage horizon scanning
Look for environmental savings
Focus on the vital few trends which might impact you most
Developing Customer Insight
Customer Focus
Challenge your assumptions and practices
Thinking Laterally
Encourage outside in thinking
Creating Markets of 1
Responsiveness
Identify Technology best practices
Integrating the technology
Sign up to Social Networks
Adapting to changing lifestyles
Advice from Global Futures and Foresight
P48 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
About the Author
David A. Smith
Chief Executive, Global Futures and Foresight
David is the chief executive of Global Futures and Foresight (GFF) In his 30 year business career
he has held senior management positions in large and small organizations He has been involved
in public sector, commercial and fnancial markets and has held sales, marketing and general
management positions in companies such as the UK based DRG group and the US IT services
Unisys corporation Whilst at Unisys he held the position of Strategic Marketing Director for their
$2bn global fnancial services business He has advised the UK and EU governments on strategic
research investment decisions
Since co-founding The Global Future Forum in 2000, the Unisys global think-tank and now
Global Futures and Foresight, a futures research business helping business better prepare for
the future, he has worked with many organisations such as The Henley Management Centre,
University of Tampere Finland, Reckitt Benckiser, Bausch & Lomb, KRAFT, Heinz, SAS
airlines, Siemens, CSC, Cisco, Unisys, O2, Shirlaws, Reed Exhibitions, Royal Mail, Lloyds TSB,
Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, West Bromwich Building Society,
Royal&SunAlliance, More Th>n and many other banks, building societies, insurance companies,
commercial companies and industry associations such as the Financial Services Forum, VMA
(telecommunications), PIRA (packaging) and the Association of Event Organizers (AEO)
He is a regular international conference speaker and writer and a passionate believer that we are
not victims of what the future might hold if we prepare ourselves in advance He has spoken on
UK BBC, Middle East TV, German and South African radio and appeared on the UK ITN News
channel discussing topical futures issues His experience has shown him the powerful impact
that glimpses of the future afford business and government alike as they seek to achieve their
strategic goals
P49 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
Global Futures and Foresight
The aim of GFF is to harness the views of global experts to provide foresight to organizations
so that they can be more successful and less exposed to risk by better understanding the
opportunities and threats the future has in store for them It does this primarily through
presentations, workshops and by developing researched reports of the future GFF is a global
network of business, academic and future thinkers from across the world committed to helping
business and government better prepare for the future It does this through collaborative projects
and through undertaking its own research, gathering thought leaders views of the future and
forming composite ideas of what our future could look like
Contact
David Smith
davidsmith@thegffcom
wwwthegffcom
Tel: +44 (0) 1372 210941
+44 (0) 7932 408901
Fax: +44 (0) 1372 210941
Global Futures and Foresight Ltd, 2007
P50 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
About Shirlaws
Shirlaws started operations in July 1999, with the goal of establishing business coaching as
an industry Initially servicing primarily the mid-size business market, Shirlaws business coaches
now service companies of all sizes, including large corporate enterprises
Our founder, Darren Shirlaw, started with a handful of clients in Australia and over the past eight
years Shirlaws has grown to become a global organisation servicing more than 500 business
clients in Europe, Australia, New Zealand and the United States
What we do
Shirlaws helps businesses to grow - from sole operators to large corporate enterprises We work
with businesses in three areas - revenue, productivity and strategy and we focus not only the
commercial aspects of doing business, but on the cultural factors that affect human interaction
as well Irrespective of the product or service a business provides, business issues are all
fundamentally the same This means that we can work with any business, of any size, in any sector
All of our coaching materials and frameworks are Shirlaws own and we have a full time product
team dedicated to developing and refning the product and providing coach support
Contact
United Kingdom
Shirlaws (UK) Ltd, Third Floor,
34 Hill Street, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 1TW
(Ph) +44 (0)208 912 0230
(Fax) +44 (0)208 912 0231
Email: infouk@shirlawscoachingcom
UK Contact: Mark Suddaby
Email: msuddaby@shirlawscoachingcom
USA
Shirlaws (USA) Inc, 1797 Union Street,
San Francisco CA 94123
(Ph) + 1 415 346 6650
(Fax) + 1 415 346 6628
Email: infousa@shirlawscoachingcom
USA Contact: Tammy Foxx
Email: tfoxx@shirlawscoachingcom
Australia
Shirlaws Pty Ltd, Level 10,
47 York Street, Sydney, NSW 2000
(Ph) +61 (0)2 92417851
(Fax) +61 (0)2 92417852
Toll free number (Australia only): 1300 550 618
Email: info@shirlawscoachingcom
Australian Contact: Laura Engstrom
Email: lengstrom@shirlawscoachingcom
New Zealand
Shirlaws New Zealand Ltd, Level 6, Wakefeld
House, 90 The Terrace, Wellington 6011
(Ph) +64 (0)4 495 0834
Email: infonz@shirlawscoachingcom
New Zealand Contact: Joanne Bush
Email: jbush@shirlawscoachingcom
P51 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
1 Source: EIU
2 http://wwwfreshplazacom/news_detailasp?id=7850
3 http://wwwusatodaycom/money/industries/2006-09-10-security-industry_xhtm
4 http://wwwprocessingtalkcom/news/hel/hel111html
5 http://longevity2stanfordedu/doc/WhyPopulationAgingMatterspdf
6 http://wwwmsnbcmsncom/id/14724570/
7 http://wwwintelcom/education/
8 Survey SuccessFactors conducted with the Business Performance Management Forum
and the Human Capital Institute
9 http://wwwbusinessweekcom/careers/content/feb2007/ca20070207_039145htm
10 http://wwwdbresearchcom/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000210852pdf
11 Chair the National Advisory Committee on Creative and Cultural Education
12 http://wwwftcom/cms/s/2/12b86b8c-314c-11dc-891f-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e0c6c676-3099-
11dc-9a81-0000779fd2achtml
13 http://wwwftcom/cms/s/2/13feeae8-314c-11dc-891f-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e0c6c676-3099-
11dc-9a81-0000779fd2achtml
14 http://wwwftcom/cms/s/2/08f174fe-314c-11dc-891f-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e0c6c676-3099-
11dc-9a81-0000779fd2achtml
15 http://wwwaccenturecom/NR/rdonlyres/2EE74933-2694-4FDD-A53C-EED8E6E5ECBA/0/
SkillsfortheFuturepdf
16 http://wwwmsnbcmsncom/id/14724570/
17 http://wwwbusinessweekcom/careers/content/feb2007/ca20070207_039145htm
18 http://flesshareholdercom/downloads/MAN/192784447x0x87523/a49c96c9-cbfe-47ac-9207-
476be0e84c20/Talentpercent20Shortagepercent20Surveypercent20Results_2007_FINALpdf
19 http://wwwimperialcorpcom/whatsnewhtml
20 http://bzwkmkcom/pdf/research/TalentManagement2007pdf
21 http://wwwajilonoffcecom/articles/Successionpercent20Planningpercent20whitepercent
20paperpercent205-31-06pdf
22 http://wwwdeloittecom/dtt/cda/doc/content/DTT_DR_GenYOilGas_Dec05pdf
23 http://wwwheidrickonecom/mediakits/gti/fles/logos/eiu/EIUlogojpg
24 http://wwwexpresscomputeronlinecom/20071203/technologylife01shtml
25 http://wwwcomputerweeklycom/Articles/2007/05/10/223782/wage-infation-threatens-outsourcinghtm
26 http://wwwdanweiorg/chinas_talent_shortagephp
27 http://wwwharveynashcom/pdf/cbi/AlbertEllisSpeakerNotesCBISummitJune12pdf
28 http://wwwriskmanagementmagazinecomau/articles/3A/0C03953Aasp?Type=125&Category=1241
29 http://wwwciscocom/edu/emea/general/pdf/IDC_Networking_Skills_Shortage_EW_Europe_FINAL_5_
Octpdf
30 http://timesofndiaindiatimescom/Business/India_Business/Its_about_attracting_the_right_people/
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P52 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
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33 wwwrickmcginniscom/boomer/
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39 Dr Aubrey de Grey
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94 IDCs Western European VoIP Applications Forecast and TeleGeography
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101 wwwinformationweekcom/story/showArticlejhtml?articleID=173603199&tid=6004
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P54 The Future of Companies | Authored by Global Futures and Foresight
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105 http://mzdnetcomau/339282397htm
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107 http://techbizwatchwordpresscom/2007/10/02/ft-social-networking-skills-that-confer-a-
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108 http://mashablecom/2007/05/10/emarketer-ad-spending-report/
109 http://wwwitweekcouk/itweek/analysis/2194712/blogs-social-networking-sites
110 http://wwweconomistcom/business/displaystorycfm?story_id=10102992
Author:
David A Smith
Chief Executive
Global Futures and Foresight
Research by:
Tim Hancock
Researcher
Global Futures and Foresight
Global Futures and Foresight Limited 2007