Spreadsheet Simulation Schwartz Moon Model (2000

)

Sim
6,000

Parameters

Historical Sales
R0

355.8 million per quarter

(Rt)
5,000

Initial loss carry forward

L0

559.0 million

Initial Cash Balance available

X0

700.0 million

Initial expected rate of revenue growth

µ0

11.0% per quarter

Simulated Sales
(Rt)
4,000
Drift of (Rt)
Bankruptcy line

Initial volatility of revenues
Initial volatility of expected rate of revenue growth

σ0

10.0% per quarter

η0

3.0% per quarter

Correlation between percentage change in
revenue and change in expected rate of growth

ρ

Long-term rate of growth in revenues

µlt

1.5% per quarter

Long-term volatility of the rate of revenue growth

σlt

5.0% per quarter

Company's corporate tax rate
Risk-free interest rate
Speed of adjustment for rate of growth process
Speed of adjustment for the volatility of revenue
process
Speed of adjustment for the volatility of the rate of
revenue growth process
COGS as % of revenues
Fixed component of other expenses
Variable component of other expenses

τc
r
κ
κ1

Market price of risk for revenue factor
Market price of risk for rate of revenue growth
factor
Horizon for estimation
Time increment for discrete version of model

3,000
2,000
1,000

2

-

35.0%

-5

0

5.0% per year
0.07 per quarter
0.07 per quarter

5

Net In
-

κ2

0.07 per quarter

α
F
β
λ1

75.0%
75.0 million
19.0%
0.01 per quarter

λ2

-

T
∆t

per quarter

100.0 quarters
1 quarter

(10)
2

(20)

revenues in $ million

µ

0.0

revenues in $ million

Initial Revenue

(30)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(70)
(80)
(90)

PRESS F9 (recalculate) to run new simulation

-5

Results
Bankruptcy in period

4.50

Final Cash Balance
10X EBITDA Multiple
Present Value of Firm

(4,866.0) million
(110.5) million
- million

yrs.

0

5

Net income

Cash Bala
8,000

Growth Rate of Revenues
180%
160%
140%

Historical mt
Simulated mt
Drift of mt

growth in %

120%
100%
80%
60%

revenues in $ million

6,000
4,000
2,000
2
(2,000)
(4,000)

40%
20%

(6,000)

Cash balance
Xt
-5

0%
96 4 98 2 1
7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97
96 1 97 3 99 1 4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58 64 70 76 82 88 94
time period (quarter)

0

Loss car
5
forward

160%
140%

Historical mt
Simulated mt
Drift of mt

growth in %

120%
100%
80%
60%

2,000
2
(2,000)
(4,000)

40%
20%

(6,000)

Cash balance
Xt
-5

0%
96 4 98 2 1
7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97
96 1 97 3 99 1 4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 58 64 70 76 82 88 94
time period (quarter)

Growth Rate of Revenues

12%
10%
growth in %

revenues in $ mill

180%

Simulated mt
Drift of mt

8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
97 1 99 1 6 14 22 30 38 46 54 62 70 78 86 94
96 1 98 1 2 10 18 26 34 42 50 58 66 74 82 90 98
time period (quarter)

0

Loss car
5
forward

revenues in $ million

revenues in $ million

revenues in $ million

Quarterly Sales & Costs for Am
Simulation of Revenues
6,000

Quarter

Historical Sales
(Rt)
5,000
Simulated Sales
(Rt)
4,000
Drift of (Rt)
Bankruptcy line

96 1
96 2
96 3
96 4

3,000

97 1
97 2

2,000

97 3

1,000

97 4

2

98 1

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Time (years)

98 2
98 3
98 4

Net Income and Tax Expense

99 1

(10)

99 2
99 3

2

(20)

(40)

1
2

(50)

3

(30)

(60)

4
5
6
7

(70)
(80)
(90)
-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Time (years)

Net income

Tax expense

Bankruptcy line

Cash Balance and Loss Carry Forward
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2
(2,000)
(4,000)
(6,000)

Cash balance
Xt
-5

0

Loss carry
5
forward Lt

Bankruptcy
line
10
15
Time (years)

20

25

30

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

revenues in $ mill

2,000
2
(2,000)
(4,000)
(6,000)

Cash balance
Xt
-5

0

Loss carry
5
forward Lt

Bankruptcy
line
10
15
Time (years)

20

25

30

25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75

76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

Quarterly Sales & Costs for Amazon
Time
scale in
years

Historical
Sales (Rt) COGS

Gross
profit

SG&A

EBITDA

-3.5

0.875

0.678

0.197

0.516

(0.319)

-3.25

2.230

1.725

0.505

1.253

(0.748)

-3

4.173

3.172

1.001

3.383

(2.382)

-2.75

8.468

6.426

2.042

4.286

(2.244)

-2.5

16.005

12.484

3.521

6.623

(3.102)

-2.25

27.855

22.641

5.214

13.067

(7.853)

-2

37.887

30.717

7.170

17.486

(10.316)

-1.75

66.040

53.127

12.913

24.237

(11.324)

-1.5

87.361

66.222

21.139

29.283

(8.144)

-1.25
-1
-0.75

116.044
153.698
252.893

89.793
118.823
199.476

26.251
34.875
53.417

44.651
76.381
95.486

(18.400)
(41.506)
(42.069)

-0.5

293.643

223.629

70.014

95.386

(25.372)

-0.25
0
0.25
0.5

314.377
355.800

246.846
285.300
292.64
285.06

67.531
70.500
97.547
95.021

0.75

316.78

105.593

155.25

1
1.25
1.5
1.75

361.47
401.66
432.88
455.86

120.490
133.888
144.293
151.953

2
2.25
2.5
2.75
3
3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
5
5.25
5.5
5.75
6

457.97
395.11
399.63
335.80
343.13
358.88
358.35
360.03
366.35
396.95
407.89
399.51
402.58
410.84
411.35
419.41
443.93

152.657
131.702
133.211
111.932
114.376
119.626
119.452
120.008
122.117
132.317
135.964
133.171
134.194
136.946
137.116
139.803
147.976

190.005 (122.474)
260.945 (190.445)
149.14
(51.589)
147.22
(52.195)

Interest
income

Pretax
profit

Tax
expense

Net
income

8.805
8.267

(42.784)
(43.928)

-

(42.784)
(43.928)

(49.658)

7.714

(41.944)

-

(41.944)

166.57
176.76
184.66
190.48

(46.082)
(42.867)
(40.370)
(38.531)

7.187
6.697
6.242
5.813

(38.896)
(36.169)
(34.127)
(32.718)

-

(38.896)
(36.169)
(34.127)
(32.718)

191.02
175.09
176.24
160.07
161.93
165.92
165.78
166.21
167.81
175.56
178.33
176.21
176.99
179.08
179.21
181.25
187.46

(38.362)
(43.391)
(43.029)
(48.136)
(47.550)
(46.290)
(46.332)
(46.198)
(45.692)
(43.244)
(42.369)
(43.039)
(42.793)
(42.133)
(42.092)
(41.447)
(39.486)

5.402
4.987
4.504
4.019
3.464
2.910
2.364
1.811
1.253
0.694
0.159
(0.372)
(0.918)
(1.468)
(2.017)
(2.571)
(3.125)

(32.961)
(38.404)
(38.525)
(44.117)
(44.085)
(43.380)
(43.967)
(44.387)
(44.439)
(42.550)
(42.210)
(43.411)
(43.712)
(43.601)
(44.109)
(44.019)
(42.611)

-

(32.961)
(38.404)
(38.525)
(44.117)
(44.085)
(43.380)
(43.967)
(44.387)
(44.439)
(42.550)
(42.210)
(43.411)
(43.712)
(43.601)
(44.109)
(44.019)
(42.611)

6.25
6.5
6.75
7
7.25
7.5
7.75
8
8.25
8.5
8.75
9
9.25
9.5
9.75
10
10.25
10.5
10.75
11
11.25
11.5
11.75
12
12.25
12.5
12.75
13
13.25
13.5
13.75
14
14.25
14.5
14.75
15
15.25
15.5
15.75
16
16.25
16.5
16.75
17
17.25
17.5
17.75
18
18.25
18.5
18.75

443.75
437.38
420.11
429.36
451.05
458.19
462.14
393.04
405.59
417.98
437.04
461.98
439.93
417.68
455.16
445.03
404.62
420.76
422.17
401.82
386.91
377.26
380.20
400.41
416.99
443.25
438.44
440.26
460.48
443.31
446.36
505.52
459.41
478.00
519.72
532.15
530.86
552.18
524.27
571.67
611.10
596.17
596.12
620.56
611.09
650.79
643.64
631.82
640.94
677.18
718.97

147.916
145.792
140.037
143.119
150.349
152.731
154.047
131.014
135.197
139.327
145.681
153.994
146.642
139.227
151.721
148.345
134.873
140.254
140.724
133.941
128.969
125.755
126.732
133.471
138.997
147.748
146.147
146.753
153.492
147.770
148.786
168.506
153.136
159.332
173.239
177.384
176.954
184.059
174.755
190.555
203.701
198.723
198.706
206.852
203.697
216.930
214.545
210.606
213.646
225.726
239.656

187.42
185.80
181.43
183.77
189.27
191.08
192.08
174.57
177.75
180.89
185.72
192.04
186.45
180.81
190.31
187.74
177.50
181.59
181.95
176.80
173.02
170.57
171.32
176.44
180.64
187.29
186.07
186.53
191.65
187.31
188.08
203.06
191.38
196.09
206.66
209.81
209.49
214.88
207.81
219.82
229.81
226.03
226.02
232.21
229.81
239.87
238.05
235.06
237.37
246.55
257.14

(39.500)
(40.010)
(41.391)
(40.651)
(38.916)
(38.345)
(38.029)
(43.557)
(42.553)
(41.562)
(40.037)
(38.042)
(39.806)
(41.585)
(38.587)
(39.397)
(42.631)
(41.339)
(41.226)
(42.854)
(44.047)
(44.819)
(44.584)
(42.967)
(41.641)
(39.540)
(39.925)
(39.779)
(38.162)
(39.535)
(39.291)
(34.558)
(38.247)
(36.760)
(33.423)
(32.428)
(32.531)
(30.826)
(33.059)
(29.267)
(26.112)
(27.306)
(27.310)
(25.356)
(26.113)
(22.937)
(23.509)
(24.455)
(23.725)
(20.826)
(17.482)

(3.661)
(4.204)
(4.760)
(5.341)
(5.919)
(6.483)
(7.047)
(7.614)
(8.258)
(8.897)
(9.531)
(10.155)
(10.761)
(11.397)
(12.064)
(12.701)
(13.356)
(14.060)
(14.757)
(15.461)
(16.195)
(16.952)
(17.729)
(18.513)
(19.287)
(20.053)
(20.803)
(21.566)
(22.338)
(23.099)
(23.887)
(24.682)
(25.427)
(26.228)
(27.020)
(27.780)
(28.538)
(29.306)
(30.062)
(30.856)
(31.612)
(32.338)
(33.089)
(33.848)
(34.593)
(35.357)
(36.090)
(36.839)
(37.610)
(38.382)
(39.127)

(43.161)
(44.214)
(46.151)
(45.992)
(44.835)
(44.828)
(45.076)
(51.171)
(50.810)
(50.458)
(49.568)
(48.196)
(50.567)
(52.983)
(50.650)
(52.098)
(55.987)
(55.399)
(55.983)
(58.315)
(60.242)
(61.771)
(62.314)
(61.480)
(60.927)
(59.593)
(60.727)
(61.346)
(60.500)
(62.634)
(63.178)
(59.240)
(63.674)
(62.988)
(60.443)
(60.208)
(61.069)
(60.132)
(63.121)
(60.123)
(57.724)
(59.645)
(60.399)
(59.204)
(60.706)
(58.293)
(59.599)
(61.294)
(61.335)
(59.208)
(56.609)

-

(43.161)
(44.214)
(46.151)
(45.992)
(44.835)
(44.828)
(45.076)
(51.171)
(50.810)
(50.458)
(49.568)
(48.196)
(50.567)
(52.983)
(50.650)
(52.098)
(55.987)
(55.399)
(55.983)
(58.315)
(60.242)
(61.771)
(62.314)
(61.480)
(60.927)
(59.593)
(60.727)
(61.346)
(60.500)
(62.634)
(63.178)
(59.240)
(63.674)
(62.988)
(60.443)
(60.208)
(61.069)
(60.132)
(63.121)
(60.123)
(57.724)
(59.645)
(60.399)
(59.204)
(60.706)
(58.293)
(59.599)
(61.294)
(61.335)
(59.208)
(56.609)

19
19.25
19.5
19.75
20
20.25
20.5
20.75
21
21.25
21.5
21.75
22
22.25
22.5
22.75
23
23.25
23.5
23.75
24
24.25
24.5
24.75
25

732.68
716.36
679.83
712.78
689.64
729.13
773.92
735.36
731.71
733.03
705.65
648.24
607.61
607.44
674.08
659.57
662.62
695.24
737.53
752.25
718.05
718.96
733.62
740.39
799.32

244.226
238.788
226.609
237.594
229.879
243.044
257.973
245.118
243.903
244.343
235.217
216.080
202.538
202.481
224.694
219.856
220.873
231.745
245.845
250.751
239.350
239.653
244.538
246.798
266.441

260.61
256.48
247.22
255.57
249.71
259.71
271.06
261.29
260.37
260.70
253.77
239.22
228.93
228.89
245.77
242.09
242.86
251.13
261.84
265.57
256.91
257.14
260.85
262.57
277.49

(16.386)
(17.691)
(20.614)
(17.977)
(19.829)
(16.669)
(13.086)
(16.172)
(16.463)
(16.358)
(18.548)
(23.141)
(26.391)
(26.405)
(21.074)
(22.234)
(21.991)
(19.381)
(15.997)
(14.820)
(17.556)
(17.483)
(16.311)
(15.769)
(11.054)

(39.839)
(40.546)
(41.278)
(42.057)
(42.812)
(43.600)
(44.358)
(45.081)
(45.851)
(46.635)
(47.427)
(48.257)
(49.155)
(50.106)
(51.068)
(51.975)
(52.909)
(53.851)
(54.772)
(55.662)
(56.549)
(57.481)
(58.424)
(59.364)
(60.309)

(56.224)
(58.237)
(61.892)
(60.034)
(62.641)
(60.269)
(57.445)
(61.252)
(62.314)
(62.993)
(65.975)
(71.398)
(75.546)
(76.510)
(72.141)
(74.210)
(74.899)
(73.232)
(70.769)
(70.482)
(74.105)
(74.964)
(74.735)
(75.132)
(71.363)

-

(56.224)
(58.237)
(61.892)
(60.034)
(62.641)
(60.269)
(57.445)
(61.252)
(62.314)
(62.993)
(65.975)
(71.398)
(75.546)
(76.510)
(72.141)
(74.210)
(74.899)
(73.232)
(70.769)
(70.482)
(74.105)
(74.964)
(74.735)
(75.132)
(71.363)

Loss carry
Cash
Bankruptcy Simulated
forward Lt balance Xt
Sales (Rt) Drift of (Rt)
flag

Historical Simulated Drift of
µt
µt
µt

σt

ηt

4.5
154.9%
87.1%
102.9%
89.0%
74.0%
36.0%
74.3%
32.3%
32.8%
32.4%
64.5%
16.1%

559.000
601.784
645.712

700.000
657.216 - 613.288 - -

355.800
390.189
380.084

355.800
394.796
435.421

687.655

571.345 - -

422.371

726.551
762.721
796.848
829.566

532.449
496.279
462.152
429.434

-----

862.527
900.931
939.457
983.574
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

396.473
358.069
319.543
275.426
231.341
187.961
143.994
99.607
55.168
12.618
(29.592)
(73.003)
(116.715)
(160.316)
(204.425)
(248.443)
(291.054)

----------BRUPT
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead

7.1%
13.2%

11.0%
9.0%
9.2%

11.0%
10.4%
9.8%

10.0%
9.7%
9.3%

3.0%
2.8%
2.6%

477.516

9.3%

9.2%

9.1%

2.4%

481.959
535.553
577.173
607.812

520.922
565.477
611.020
657.397

5.4%
3.7%
3.0%
2.5%

8.7%
8.2%
7.7%
7.3%

8.8%
8.5%
8.3%
8.1%

2.3%
2.1%
2.0%
1.8%

610.628
526.809
532.844
447.727
457.503
478.504
477.806
480.034
488.470
529.269
543.856
532.682
536.776
547.783
548.463
559.211
591.905

704.459
752.066
800.085
848.394
896.883
945.448
994.002
1,042.463
1,090.763
1,138.842
1,186.651
1,234.147
1,281.300
1,328.082
1,374.476
1,420.471
1,466.059

3.4%
3.7%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
3.1%
3.3%
2.9%
2.0%
3.4%
2.5%
1.4%
1.9%
1.9%

6.9%
6.6%
6.2%
5.9%
5.6%
5.3%
5.1%
4.8%
4.6%
4.4%
4.2%
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%

7.9%
7.7%
7.5%
7.3%
7.2%
7.0%
6.9%
6.7%
6.6%
6.5%
6.4%
6.3%
6.2%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
5.9%

1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

(334.215)
(378.429)
(424.580)
(470.572)
(515.407)
(560.235)
(605.311)
(656.481)
(707.292)
(757.750)
(807.318)
(855.514)
(906.081)
(959.064)
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead

591.665
583.167
560.146
572.477
601.397
610.922
616.186
524.055
540.787
557.307
582.722
615.975
586.567
556.909
606.884
593.379
539.490
561.016
562.896
535.764
515.876
503.019
506.928
533.884
555.987
590.994
584.590
587.013
613.968
591.081
595.142
674.026
612.544
637.328
692.954
709.537
707.817
736.236
699.021
762.221
814.803
794.893
794.826
827.408
814.788
867.721
858.180
842.423
854.583
902.905
958.626

1,511.241
1,556.019
1,600.401
1,644.398
1,688.024
1,731.295
1,774.231
1,816.851
1,859.179
1,901.237
1,943.050
1,984.642
2,026.039
2,067.267
2,108.352
2,149.320
2,190.197
2,231.008
2,271.780
2,312.538
2,353.306
2,394.109
2,434.972
2,475.917
2,516.968
2,558.147
2,599.477
2,640.979
2,682.673
2,724.582
2,766.724
2,809.120
2,851.788
2,894.747
2,938.015
2,981.610
3,025.550
3,069.851
3,114.529
3,159.602
3,205.085
3,250.994
3,297.343
3,344.149
3,391.425
3,439.186
3,487.446
3,536.220
3,585.522
3,635.364
3,685.761

1.3%
1.2%
1.7%
2.3%
2.9%
2.3%
2.8%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
1.7%
1.3%
1.1%
1.2%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%

3.2%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%

5.9%
5.8%
5.8%
5.7%
5.7%
5.6%
5.6%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%

0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead
dead

976.906
955.153
906.438
950.376
919.518
972.177
1,031.894
980.473
975.614
977.372
940.870
864.320
810.153
809.924
898.774
879.426
883.491
926.980
983.379
1,003.002
957.399
958.611
978.154
987.191
1,065.763

3,736.726
3,788.272
3,840.412
3,893.159
3,946.526
4,000.526
4,055.172
4,110.476
4,166.451
4,223.109
4,280.464
4,338.527
4,397.311
4,456.830
4,517.094
4,578.117
4,639.911
4,702.490
4,765.865
4,830.050
4,895.056
4,960.898
5,027.588
5,095.138
5,163.563

1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%

1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%

5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

ε1

ε2

ρ of
variates
generated
0.02

Bankruptcy line
4.5
4.5

-1.198
0.272

-1.626
-1.076

-0.077

0.434

0.452
0.056
-1.400
-1.049

1.101
0.358
0.725
0.034

-0.686
-1.729
-0.219
-1.498
1.640
-0.073
2.109
-0.195
0.919
1.492
0.465
-1.305
-0.625
2.460
-0.295
1.082
-1.698

1.308
-1.499
0.239
0.076
-0.064
0.015
1.556
1.175
0.096
-0.181
-0.250
-0.376
0.301
-0.394
-1.079
0.333
1.294

781.38

-76.51
-16.36

0.517
-0.008
2.271
-0.710
1.669
-0.254
-1.273
1.360
0.382
-0.163
1.603
-0.351
-1.668
-1.414
-0.312
0.878
0.206
0.991
0.685
-1.891
-0.525
-1.401
0.384
-0.164
0.217
-1.722
0.179
-0.075
-1.026
0.067
0.446
0.266
0.368
0.929
0.056
-1.267
-0.578
-0.761
-0.927
-0.742
0.071
-0.541
0.459
0.577
-0.488
-0.359
0.204
-0.710
-0.231
0.309
1.372

-0.106
0.721
-0.135
-0.102
-0.767
-0.319
-0.771
-1.829
0.233
0.658
0.527
1.543
0.665
1.328
-1.158
-1.441
-0.505
0.176
-1.417
0.541
-0.179
-0.250
2.497
-0.530
1.127
0.079
-0.239
0.302
0.122
0.075
-0.422
-0.663
-0.141
-0.262
1.048
0.923
-0.903
1.483
0.408
0.715
-0.608
-1.286
0.720
0.953
-0.692
2.173
1.805
-0.757
-1.537
1.483
0.595

0.684
1.323
-1.138
0.344
1.023
0.327
-0.637
1.312
-1.104
-0.758
-0.830
-0.103
-1.883
0.010
0.836
-0.318
0.294
0.069
-0.342
-1.282
-0.454
-0.374
-1.835
0.168
-0.057

-0.854
1.981
-1.378
-0.368
-0.983
-1.076
-0.510
2.051
-0.779
-0.014
0.861
-0.146
1.115
0.389
-0.204
0.129
-0.576
0.654
-0.986
-0.796
0.607
0.219
-0.645
-0.962
0.810

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