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Concepts

T

his chapter discusses some of the basic concepts in inferential statistics.

Details of particular inferential testst-test, correlation, contingency table

analysis, etc.are included in other chapters. This overview is not meant to

replace the more-complete information available in a statistics text.

The Goal of Inferential Statistics

Quantitative research in psychology and social science aims to test theories about

the nature of the world in general (or some part of it) based on samples of sub-

jects taken from the world (or some part of it). When we perform research on

the effect of TV violence on childrens aggression, our intent is to create theories

that apply to all children who watch TV, or perhaps to all children in cultures

similar to our own who watch TV. We of course cannot study all children, but we

can perform research on samples of children that, hopefully, will generalize back to

the populations from which the samples were taken. Recall that external validity

is the ability of a sample to generalize to the population (and to other operational-

izations that are assumed to represent that same constructs).

Inferential statistics is the mathematics and logic of how this generalization from

sample to population can be made. The fundamental question is: can we infer the

populations characteristics from the samples characteristics? Descriptive sta-

tistics remains local to the sample, describing its central tendency and variability,

while inferential statistics focuses on making statements about the population.

Hypothesis Testing

Inferential stats is closely tied to the logic of hypothesis testing, discussed in other

chapters. In hypothesis testing, the goal is usually to reject the null hypothesis.

The null hypothesis is the null condition: no difference between means or no re-

lationship between variables. Data are collected that allow us to decide if we can

reject the null hypothesis, and do so with some confdence that were not making

a mistake. In psychology, the standard level of confdence, alpha, is a probability

of .05 that we are rejecting the null hypothesis when we shouldnt (Type I Error).

The null hypothesis is a statement of the null condition in the population, not the

sample. For example,

H

0

: mean of males = mean of females

2003 W. K. Gabrenya Jr. Version: 1.0

Page 2

is formally expressed in terms of population, not sample, means:

H

0

:

M

=

F

where (mu) signifes the population mean, that is, the mean of all the males or

females in the entire population. However, we only have a sample to work with, so

we obtain a sample mean, M (or X-bar).

The null hypothesis we are so intent on rejecting concerns the population means.

Our task is to determine if the sample means are suffciently different to infer that

the population means are different.

Basic Principle of Inferential Statistics

At a certain basic level, all inferential statistics procedures are the same: they seek

to determine if the observed (sample) characteristics are suffciently deviant from

the null hypothesis to justify rejecting it. How deviant? Well, this is the whole

point of a statistics course.

The ingredients for making this calculation are the same for all statistical proce-

dures:

1. the size of the observed difference(s)

2. the variability in the sample

3. the sample size.

If instead we are looking for relationships (e.g., correlation analysis), the size of the

relationship replaces the size of the difference. Therefore, researchers seeks to:

1. fnd large differences (or relationships)

2. hold down unwanted variability

3. obtain large samples.

(Good research must also worry about internal and external validity, and the ulti-

mate goal: building theories.)

Error Variance

Types of error were introduced in an earlier chapter. Research must deal with

two kinds of error variance: systematic and unsystematic. Systematic error means

that there is a bias in the data. For example, say your experiment on the personal-

ity trait extraversion-introversion was conducted in both morning and afternoon

sessions. For some reason, you had all the introverts come to the morning ses-

sions and all the extraverts come to the afternoon sessions. This mistake would

produce a confounding of personality trait with time of day, which for this trait

dimension is a problem.

Unsystematic error is termed error variance or residual variance. Er-

ror may be a misnomer here in that it is not exactly as if the researcher made

a mistake. Behavior is complex, multiply determined, and interacts with many

unknown or unforeseen intrapersonal and situational infuences, so as psycholo-

gists we would never expect everyone to act (or respond on questionnaires) in

Page 3

exactly the same way. Careful research tries to minimize as many of the infuences

on behavior, besides the independent variable, as possible. However, this is practi-

cally impossible so we always see differences in responding within any sample or

condition of an experiments.

For example, in an experiment on the effects of alcohol on driving performance,

subjects will come to the experiment with different levels of driving skills and in

varying moods and dispositions. Therefore, within any condition of such an experi-

ment (no alcohol condition, 3-drinks condition, etc.) we should expect variability

in performance. This within-group (within experimental condition) variability is

error variance. It is, essentially, what we dont know or havent tried to fnd out

about the subjects. In the words of my frst (rather frightening) statistics teacher,

error is ignorance.

Reducing Ignorance

We can reduce ignorance in many ways, and doing so is one of the goals of re-

searchers. For example, we could have selected only subjects with at least 5 years

of driving experience for our alcohol study, assuming that after 5 years people

have learned as much as there is to learn about driving, hence reducing differences

among the participants within each of the alcohol conditions.

Another way to reduce error variance is to use something we know about the

subjects to change the experimental design in a way that accounts for or re-

moves some error variance. The strategy is to divide up the participants into

groups within which people will be more similar to each other. These groups will

have lower within-group variability in their behavior. For example, if females are

more careful drivers than males, as the probability data used by insurance com-

panies to calculate premiums clearly indicate, then adding a variable gender to

the design to separate the males and females into their own groups should reduce

driving performance variability within the groups. By knowing something about

gender, we have reduced our ignorance.

All the Formulae are the Same

In a statistics course, you would learn the several formulae used to calculate the

numbers you need in order to determine if you may reject the null hypothesis. A

few of these formulae are presented here to point out their similarities. Concep-

tual, not actual, formulae are used. Just what these formulae mean is explained in

Name of Test Formula (conceptual) What it does

t-test

t =

Mean Difference

Error Variance

Difference between two means

Analysis of Vari-

ance

F =

Differences Among Means

Error Variance Within Groups

Differences among many means, with many

IVs

Chi-Square Test

2

=

Extent to which frequencies are

not consistent with the null hyp

Size of sample

Differences in frequencies; or relationship

between nominal variables

Page 4

the data analysis chapters.

Statistics

The calculation involving the ratio of size of difference (numerator) to amount of

error (denominator), illustrated in the table, produces a number termed a statis-

tic. t, F, and

2

are statistics. This value becomes larger as the ratio of difference

(or relationship) to error increases, as the formulae indicate. A larger statistic

obviously is better.

The statistic is compared to a table of statistics to determine if it is large enough

to reject the null hypothesis. As the sample size increases, the statistic need not

be as large to reject the null hypothesis. The reason for this is that larger samples

give more confdence that the obtained sample is not unrepresentative of the

population, that is, not a fuke. Small samples are notoriously unstable because

every small sample that is drawn from a population will be distinctly different due

to chance. Therefore, to be confdent that the ratio is suffciently large to reject

the null hypothesis when the sample is small, the statistic must be larger.

p-values

The null hypothesis can only be rejected when the probability of a Type 1 Er-

ror (error of rejecting it when you shouldnt) is less than .05 (the alpha level). If

this were, say, 1960, the only way that you could calculate a statistic would be by

hand, and you would determine if the statistic was large enough to reject the null

hypothesis, relative to the size of the sample, by looking up the required value in

a table at the back of a statistics book. The table would have a column of values

headed by .05 in addition to other columns with other alpha levels, such as .01.

If your statistic was larger than the value in the .05 column for your sample size,

you would reject the null hypothesis.

Times have changed. Statistical analysis software calculates a p-value that in-

dicates the probability of committing a Type I Error based on the statistic (which

it also calculates for you) and the sample size. The p-value can be any number

between 0 and 1. If the p-value is less than alpha (generally .05), you may reject

the null hypothesis.

The following portion of a t-test from SPSS illustrates a p-value, labeled Sig. (2-

tailed). The p-value is .001, a probability much lower than .05, indicating that we

should reject the null hypothesis. The column df is related to the sample size.

Page 5

Procedure for Performing an Inferential Test

Here is a step-by-step procedure for performing inferential statistics.

1. Start with a theory

(TV violence reduces childrens ability to detect violent behavior because it

blurs the distinction between real and fantasy violence)

2. Make a research hypothesis

(Children who experience TV violence will fail to detect violent behavior in

other children)

3. Operationalize the variables

4. Identify the population to which the study results should apply

(Kids in developed nations)

5. Form a null hypothesis for this population

(H

0

: u

H

= u

L

, where u

H

is mean accurate detection of violence by children

with high prior exposure to TV violence; u

L

is low prior exposure)

6. Collect a sample of children from the population and run the study

7. Perform statistical tests to see if the obtained sample characteristics are suf-

fciently different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis to be

able to reject the null hypothesis.

8. Publish the paper, get famous, fnd a job at Harvard

Details on how to perform step (7) are included in other chapters focusing on the

use of SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) to analyze data.

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