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"/ 01231245 674" 8


1C: !CPn kA1kC lC8 CCnC8LSS

l8CM: ÞA18lCk LAnnL-Þu8LlC CÞlnlCn S18A1LClLS

Su8!LC1: nLW ?C8k Cu-24 8LCLn1 ÞCLL 8LSuL1S

uA1L: !uL? 31, 2014

lobllc Oploloo 5ttoteqles teceotly cooJocteJ o Jlsttlct-wlJe sotvey of 400 llkely votets, teocbeJ
vlo looJlloe ooJ cell pbooe oo bebolf of tbe kotko fot cooqtess compolqo. 1be poll wos
cooJocteJ Ioly 27-29, 2014 ooJ bos o motqlo of ettot of -/- 4.9X lo 95 oot of 100 coses. 1be
potpose of tbls memo ls to tevlew some of tbe key floJloqs of tbot poll.

*+, -./0./12

! *3456 .2 7.48./ 2./19+ 0.1.42 6/ 48+ :39964; 32 "3<<+. .2 7+99 =/0+> ?@AB
uesplLe !ohn's currenL llmlLed name recognlLlon ([usL 36° of voLers have heard of !ohn),
he beglns wlLhln sLrlklng dlsLance of lncumbenL uan Maffel on Lhe balloL, 36°-43°
(40°-43° wlLh leaners lncluded).

undeclded voLers are polsed Lo break Loward !ohn as hls name ldenLlflcaLlon lncreases.
A ma[orlLy (32°) of undeclded voLers would prefer Lo glve a new person a chance raLher
Lhan re-elecL Maffel (11°), undeclded voLers lean Loward Lhe 8epubllcan candldaLe on
Lhe generlc balloL (40°-21°), and Lhey prefer a 8epubllcan candldaLe who wlll be a
check on Cbama over a uemocraLlc candldaLe who wlll help pass Cbama's agenda by a
wlde margln, 37°-23°.

! $:3C3 .2 =/0+>734+>B
ÞresldenL Cbama won Lhe 24
ulsLrlcL ln 2012, buL hls approval raLlng now slLs aL 41°,
wlLh 36° dlsapprovlng (43° sLrongly dlsapprove). unafflllaLed voLers dlsapprove of Lhe
ÞresldenL by a nearly Lwo-Lo-one margln, 33°-62°. 8y a 17 polnL margln (33°-36°),
voLers would prefer a 8epubllcan candldaLe who wlll be a check on Cbama Lo a
uemocraLlc candldaLe who wlll help pass hls agenda.

Cbama's unpopularlLy boosL 8epubllcans - Cbama dlsapprovers voLe for Lhe 8epubllcan
candldaLe on Lhe generlc balloL, 63°-12°.
!"# %&'( )*+,- ."/ 01231245 674" ,

! D8+ EF
G6/1>+22.6/39 (.24>.H4 .2 3 H6CI+4.4.J+ 2+34B
Whlle Lhe Cook Þvl pegs Lhe 24
ulsLrlcL as a uLM +3 seaL, Lhe dlsLrlcL represenLs a
classlc norLheasL Loss-up. ÞarLy reglsLraLlon ls nearly even (33° 8epubllcan - 34°
uemocraL). 1he generlc balloL shows a sllghL edge for Lhe 8epubllcan candldaLe, 41°-
40°. 1he dlsLrlcL has changed over Llme, buL Lhls area has senL 8epubllcans Lo Congress
ln 13 of Lhe lasL 17 elecLlons.

! "3<<+. .2 3 76=/0+0 ./H=C:+/4B
uan Maffel enLers Lhe lall campalgn ln a weak pollLlcal poslLlon. Pls balloL supporL ls
well-below Lhe 30° Lhreshold, hls personal lmage (47° favorable - 34° unfavorable) ls
already polarlzed, and hls re-elecL score ls a neL negaLlve, 37° re-elecL - 46° new

!"# %&''&( )*+#
1he eroslon of ÞresldenL Cbama's pollLlcal supporL and Lhe ouL of Louch naLure of uan Maffel
puLs Lhe 24
Congresslonal ulsLrlcL ln play. 1he lncumbenL ls pollLlcally weak. !ohn kaLko ls
already compeLlLlve wlLh uan Maffel desplLe hls lack of name ldenLlflcaLlon - whlch wlll only
lmprove. undeclded voLers are polsed Lo break overwhelmlngly Loward !ohn ln Lhls campalgn.

!ohn ls very well-poslLloned ln Lhls race. 1he flnal sLep wlll be Lo ensure !ohn has Lhe flnanclal
resources needed Lo lncrease hls name lu, arLlculaLe hls message of cleanlng up Congress, and
defend hlmself agalnsL Lhe aLLack ads already belng planned by uan Maffel and Lhe uCCC.

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