Weekly Sentiment Paper Distributed by: One Financial

For the Week of: 08/10 through 08/16 Written by: Andrei Wogen
Email: anewr8@gmail.com
Week in Review 1
Australian Dollar 2
New Zealand Dollar 4
Japanese Yen 6
China Renminbi; Onshore, Yuan 8
Euro Area: Euro 9
British Pound 12
Canadian Dollar 14
United States Dollar 15
Emerging Markets 17
Upcoming Data for the Week 18
Charts 20
Week in Review
• RBA leaves rates at historic lows; stays neutral on the economy and continues to see the AUD
as overvalued; RBA policy statement reflects the same though with downgrades to both year-
end inflation and growth forecasts
• Australia employment change comes in worse than expected and the unemployment rate rises;
unemployment rise though blamed on changes in the way the data is collected
• New Zealand employment change come in worse than expected while wage growth ticks
higher and unemployment rate falls
• ECB leaves rates unchanged; overall dovish on the economy with more talk of willingness to
ease further if needed
• Canada Employment change much weaker than expected; Unemployment lower
• Russia continues to build troops on Ukraine's borders; more sanctions from Russia and EU/
US; all continue to hamper sentiment
Australian Dollar
Main Longer-Term Themes
• Neutral RBA that wants to do nothing with rates at this time; now sees rates at
current levels as the appropriate place to foster growth
• China economy that continues to show weakness
• An Australian currency that, according to the RBA, is high by historical standards
• domestic economy that is weak in some sectors while strong in others
• risks surrounding the latest Australian budget
• Recent cut in the carbon tax that is expected to lower inflation going forward
• mining investment that continues to be weak and is expected to be weaker
• falling commodity prices
• low risk environment providing support for higher yielding assets, including AUD
• Consumer Confidence that has recently began to rise after bottoming after the
current budget was released
Main Themes of Last Week
• June Retail sales higher than expected
• AiG Performance of Services higher than previous
• Australian trade balance better than previous and expected but still in negative
territory; exports higher than previous while imports stay unchanged in negative
territory
• RBA leaves cash rate at 2.5% as expected; continues to be neutral on rates and the
economy overall
• RBA releases their Monetary policy statement; overall a neutral statement but with
a more negative tone as they downgrade the inflation and growth rates for 2014
• Australian home loans lower than expected
• July employment change much lower than expected and the unemployment rate
rises to a 12-year high; high unemployment rate due to statistical changes
• AUD falling for the week overall
• Lower AUD net long positions in CFTC data for the week
Price Action and Order Flow of the AUD During Previous Week: vs. the USD, it fell
about 30 pips. Versus the JPY it fell about 80 pips for the week and versus the NZD it fell about
10 pips.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall neutral sentiment was reinforced
but to the downside overall as domestic data came in mixed to weaker overall and the RBA
continues its neutral rhetoric.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: for this week, things are calmer for the island
nation as there is nothing too much that will be big market drivers. Though with little data for
the week overall, any of this data could spark some good moves. On Monday, House price
index numbers will be released as will NAB’s Business Confidence numbers. These two releases
are probably the most important for the week as we will get a feel for future business activity
and also how strong the housing market continues to be. Then on Tuesday, Westpac Consumer
confidence may also get some attention as it has recently taken a beat down after the
government's recent budget release. And then on Wednesday, Consumer Inflation expectations
will be released. Other than that, the Australian dollar will be driven mostly by developments in
other countries, particularly in the US (as data there continues to impress increasing rate hike
expectations) and in Ukraine/Russia (as developments there continue to get worse).
As for the charts, AUD/NZD 1.09200 has bids on it with bids again lower down at 1.08500 and
then again at 1.07600 while offers reside at the 1.10600 level in good size. In AUD/JPY, bids
reside at 93.900, 93.600 and then in even bigger size down at 93.00 where there is also an option
barrier that will come into play if price reaches that point. Offers in AUD/JPY reside at 95.00,
95.600 and then further up between the 96.200 and the 96.500 level. And in AUD/USD, bids
reside at 0.92000 and then again at 0.92400 while offers reside at 0.92900 (in small quantity) with
larger amounts up at 0.93700 and then again between the 0.94700 and 0.95100 level.
New Zealand Dollar
Main Longer-Term Themes
• Increasing immigration
• housing and construction boom that is continuing though is now showing some
weakness
• rate hike cycle beginning from the RBNZ but that is now on pause for at least
December….maybe longer
• recent and current NZD weakness due to domestic weakness and international
developments helping to push the currency lower, mainly stronger US data and
geopolitical risks
• RBNZ that is currently on hold after rising rates consistently since March of this
year; also sees the NZD as too high and has recently mentioned intervention and also
continues to be bullish on the economy and continues to see inflation risks
• dairy prices continuing their fall
• some falling business activity and consumer spending within the country as
growth seems to possibly be leveling off some
Main Themes of Last Week
• Employment change lower than expected
• Labor costs (wages) higher than expected
• Unemployment rate lower than expected and previous while the participation rate
falls a bit
• ANZ commodity price index lower than previous as milk and lumber prices are
the main contributors while meat and wool prices rise
• Milk prices continue their plunge at this week’s auction; falling -8.4% while whole
milk powder falls -11.5%
• No change in the CFTC net long positions
Price Action and Order Flow of the NZD During Previous Week: vs. the USD it fell
about 40 pips and vs. the JPY it closed about 90 pips lower.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall neutral sentiment continued with
the little data we had, though important, coming in mixed and geopolitical events helping the
NZD lower.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: For this week there is some important data to
watch and really anything is important at this point with the RBNZ on hold in terms of future
rate hikes as they are watching domestic economic developments to make their next decision.
On Sunday evening (EST US time) Electronic card sales will be released which will give some
indication on consumer demand. Then on Monday REINZ house price index number will be
released which will be interesting to see given the recent weakness seen in some of the housing
market as rates have risen over the last few months. Business PMI will be released on
Wednesday as well as Retail Sales, with the latter being another good indication of the level of
consumer demand in New Zealand. The market continues to be concerned with when and if the
RBNZ will continue its rate hiking campaign, getting their base rate up to neutral level which is
in the 4.5% - 5% range and so data this week will continue to be looked through the eyes of rate
hike expectations.
As for charts, NZD/JPY has bids at 85.700 with larger ones that will likely come into play down
at the 84.00 level while offers reside at 86.800 and then again up at the 87.600 level. In NZD/
USD bids, along with an option barrier reside at 0.84200 with more bids at 0.84300 and on the
topside, offers reside at about the 0.8500 level with more above starting at the 0.85400 level.
Japanese Yen
Main Longer-Term Themes
• expectations that the economy will be able to continue to grow even after the
recent tax hike though these expectations are waning now as data continues to show
weakness
• the BoJ that is overall optimistic on future economic growth in Japan though has
continues to voice concerns about the continued weakness in exports as well as recently
voicing concerns about the drop off in consumption post-tax-hike; and they will
continue to implement their QE until inflation reaches their 2% target
• government policy changes that are slow to materialize and be implemented
• growing expectations that the BoJ will not increase their QE program as early as
expected though with a weaker looking economy now these expectations may be
starting to increase
• continued on and off of risk on as geopolitical events continue to be a background
(and this week, foreground) theme for the markets (Ukraine/Russia, Iraq, Israel)
• weak Japan export sector that seems to be still continuing to be weak overall,
regardless of expectations that this sector would improve
Main Themes of Last Week
• BoJ monetary base increases during the month of July
• Services PMI data comes in higher than previous and is now in expansion territory
once again
• Bank lending a little lower in July compared with June’s data
• Current account balance for June lower than expected but higher than previous; in
negative territory
• Leading economic index higher than previous
• BoJ policy statement shows that the bank will continue to increase their monetary
base by 60-70 trillion Yen per annum; unanimous vote to keep policy steady; keeps
economic assessment unchanged; revises down assessment on exports and industrial
output; household spending remains resilient as a trend with effect of sales tax hike
gradually begins to wane
• Developments in Ukraine/Russia in particular help Yen gain some versus some of
its counterparts (see Emerging Market section for more details)
• Net short CFTC positions gaining in pretty sizable amounts as bets of further BoJ
QE increase
Price Action and Order Flow of the JPY During Previous Week: vs. the USD it gained
about 50 pips versus the EUR it rose about 90 pips; versus the GBP it gained about 140 pips and
versus the CAD it rose bout 90 pips.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall sentiment that is neutral to
negative was reinforced on both sides this week as domestic data was mixed while
international developments helped push the Yen up vs. several of its peers.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week the big release from Japan will be
Prelim GDP for the second quarter. Expectations are already showing a pretty dismal number.
So overall, if this number comes in as bad as is expected this will in many ways solidify the
expectations that I, and others have, that Japan’s economy is far from mended and there will be
many months yet until it bounces back fully and strongly enough. Other data of importance will
be Industrial Production numbers on Tuesday, Machine Tool orders on Monday and Machinery
Orders on Wednesday. All this data will continue to give us an idea of the conditions of Japan’s
economy going forward but if the data we have recently is any indication, it doesn’t look like
that great of a future.
Looking at the charts, CAD/JPY bids reside at 92.400 and then again at 92.200 while offers
reside at 93.500 and then again at about the 93.80 level with more offers stacked up in layers
above the latter level. In GBP/JPY 170.600 has bids at it with more at 169.400 and offers reside at
171.500 and then again at the 172.400 level. In EUR/JPY, bids reside at 135.700 while offers
reside at 137.100 and then again in much larger quantity at the 138.00 level. And in USD/JPY
bids reside at 101.400 with larger ones down at the 101.00 level while offers reside at the 102.500
level with larger ones likely coming into play at the 103.100 level.
China Renminbi; Onshore, Yuan
Main Longer-Term Themes
• property market that is quite strong and considered by some to be near
bubble territory
• a government that is pushing through reforms to reform the overall
economy (moving to a freer, more market controlled economy) but that are
expected to slow growth going forward
• PBoC that continues to initiate two-way action in the Yuan exchange rate;
also is reluctant to push through any more policy easing measures at this point
• weak manufacturing sector but that is now showing some improvement
• services sector that now suddenly looks weaker
• consumer demand that seems to be strong once again after a fall during the
first part of the year
• weak economic conditions overall that may or not be turning a corner and
getting better...hard to tell at this point
• Chinese gov’t that is pushing through targeted reforms and stimulus (cut in
the reserve ratio for certain rural banks, target infrastructure projects, etc.); these
stimulus measures seem to be having their intended effect as the economy in
China seems to be improving after a slump during the beginning of the year
• Chinese gov’t that is targeting corruption cases, trying to deal with
corruption that is rampant throughout the economy and government
• Inflation that remains weak
Main Themes of Last Week
• China officials continue to clamp down on corruption as individuals go to trial in
China for corruption related charges; also, the luxury sector in China is weak as a result
• Trade balance data much higher than previous; imports in negative territory
though this is offset by a much stronger exports number; international community looks
stronger while domestic demand looks weaker
• Services PMII from HSBC in weaker than previous and right at the expansion level
• Non-Manufacturing PMI number lower than previous
Price Action and Order Flow of the CNY During Previous Week: the USD/CNY fell
again versus the USD this week by another 11 pips.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week overall sentiment of the Yuan remains in
neutral to slightly positive territory and this week the positive side was reinforced as domestic
data continues to impress and gain strength overall.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: For this week, markets will be focused on
something that actually happened on Saturday and this being the release of the CPI numbers for
July. Inflation is still well below the PBoC’s target and any lower, the central bank will likely be
under pressure to ease monetary policy further in an attempt to push prices upwards again.
Other data this week will be New Loans and Money Supply data on Sunday (EST US) and then
Industrial Production and Retail Sales data for July on Tuesday. Expectations are neutral to
bearish from previous readings.
Euro Area: Euro
Main Longer-Term Themes
• economy that continues to remain weak though with some improvements
across different sectors and regions of the Euro Area beginning to show
• a dovish to neutral central bank; that is expected will ease further in a
coming meeting, likely by initiating ABS purchases
• a strong currency that seems to now be willing to fall though there are still
some underlying drivers helping to prop it up...mainly emerging market central
banks rotating out of USD and into other currencies, especially the Euro, as they
build up their reserves again
• geopolitical risks from Russia/Ukraine tensions that continue to linger in
the background and that are causing some weaker growth in some areas of the
Euro Zone
• peripheral country bond yields falling as investors pile into bonds of those
countries in search of yield but also due to some improvement in these country’s
economic and government environments however a bubble has formed in some
of these markets so risk of this busting and global contagion are under the
surface
• Bond yields across the Euro Zone continuing to fall; 2-year German Bund
falling into negative territory this week and 10-year continues to hit all-time lows
• high unemployment; though this seems to be falling some now
• weak inflation across the Euro Area
Main Themes of Last Week
• Spain, German, and France Services PMI data coming in as or better than
expected; Italy and Euro Zone Services PMI data lower than expected
• Euro Zone composite PMI data lower than expected
• Euro Zone retail sales much higher than expected
• German Factory orders lower than previous and expected for both m/m and y/y
• Italy GDP for the second quarter lower than expected, in negative territory and
now Italy is now technically in a recession
• German Industrial Production lower than expected and previous
• Ireland CPI lower than previous; m/m headline now in negative territory
• ECB leaves all rates unchanged as expected; more negative on Euro Zone growth
and continuing to say that they are preparing for ABS purchases for use when needed
and that they are open to more easing as needed
• German trade balance data for June lower than expected; exports and imports
higher than expected and previous; good chance of a worse number for next month
when July’s number is released and then again in August as Russian sanctions will likely
have a negative impact
• EUR CFTC net shorts increase again for the week
Price Action and Order Flow of the EUR During Previous Week: vs. the USD price it fell
about 15 pips for the week and versus the AUD it rose about 35 pips.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall neutral sentiment was reinforced
and mostly to the more negative side as domestic data overall was pretty weak while net short
positions continue to build against the Euro.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week GDP from the Euro Zone, France and
Germany will be released on Thursday. I am personally expecting some pretty weak numbers,
particularly from the Euro Zone number as we saw Italy go back into recession last week. Other
data of interest will be German Economic Sentiment and Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
survey numbers. On Wednesday Final German CPI numbers will also be released and on
Thursday, along with the GDP data, the ECB’s monthly bulletin will be released though this is
usually just a repeat of what was heard at the ECB press conference the week before. Also, CPI
will be released on Thursday too for the Euro Zone with bearish expectations. Going back to the
GDP for a minute, I currently expect the Euro to continue to weaken as expectations for the
GDP data on Thursday begin to be priced in and with Italy’s dismal growth numbers last week,
the expectations for overall Euro Zone growth numbers will also likely be not so great. Combine
these weak expectations for Q2 growth and continued interest and worry about additional
sanctions against Russia and the situation as a whole in Ukraine continuing this week, I am
expecting another pretty dismal week for the Euro.
Now for the charts: EUR/USD continues to move down, but very slowly with bids beginning at
the 1.33200 level and then again in larger quantity, along with an option barrier, down at the
1.3300 level while offers reside at 1.34500 and then at the 1.3500 and 1.35500 levels. And in
EUR/AUD bids reside at 1.42600 and then further up at the 1.43800 level while offers reside at
1.44800.
British Pound
Main Longer-Term Themes
• economy that continues to improve though lately has been showing some
weakness though this was, in part, expected
• neutral central bank that is increasingly becoming more hawkish, but very
slowly
• expectations that the BoE will raise rates soon though the Bank seems to be
fine with not raising rates at this time; seem to be dragging their feet on doing it
• a strong housing market that has been a concern by the BoE and UK gov’t
in the past
• Scottish independence vote in the background right now; will increase in
importance as a something to watch as the September 18th vote approaches
• recent lending restrictions and other small restrictions for lending to help
tame the housing market though prices continue to rise
• Pound Sterling currency that has turned more negative now; market seems
to have gotten ahead of itself some in its expectations for BoE rate hikes….this is
being reflected in the GBP right now
Main Themes of Last Week
• BoE leaves rates and QE unchanged as expected; market awaits Inflation report
due this week and then BoE minutes the following week
• Construction PMI better than expected
• Services PMI higher than expected and previous
• Halifax House Price index higher than previous
• Industrial and Manufacturing Production lower than expected for June
• NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) for July lower than previous
• CFTC position data shows a quite sizable decrease in net long positions
Price Action and Order Flow of the GBP During Previous Week: vs. the USD it fell
about 200 pips and versus the CAD it rose about 35 pips.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall neutral sentiment was reinforced
to the negative side more this week as domestic data came in mixed to lower and the Pound
continued to be sold off.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week, the BoE’s Quarterly inflation report
on Wednesday will be of great interest. This will give us an indication of the Bank’s assessment
of the UK economy and therefore how close they could be to raising rates. At this point, they
continue saying that there continues to be slack in the economy and so it will be interesting to
see if they have downgraded their assessment of what slack is in the economy. If their slack
assessment improves the Pound will get a bid as rate hikes look like they are really coming
when or even sooner than the market anticipates. But a continued rhetoric of low slack in the
economy and we will see the Pound continue to sell-off. Also on Wednesday, BoE Gov. Carney
will give a speech in response to the inflation report being released. Also this week Employment
data on Wednesday will carry some interest but given it is only an hour before the inflation
report this report will likely be ignored with little market reaction. On Friday, we will get a
second look at second quarter GDP. This could carry some interest if the number is too far out of
line with the initial read we got a few weeks ago but if it comes inline, focus will continue to be
on the inflation report earlier in the week. Other minor data will be Services PMI data on
Thursday.
As for chart this week, GBP/USD, offers reside at 1.68200, 1.68600 and then again at the 1.68900
level with bids at 1.67600 and then again in better quantity around the 1.67300 level. GBP/CAD,
bids are at 1.83300, 1.83100 and then again at the 1.8200 level where there will likely be an
option barrier that will come into play. As for offers in GBP/CAD, these reside at 1.84600 with
even larger ones up at the 1.85200 level.
Canadian Dollar
Main Longer-Term Themes
• economy that is weak in certain sectors but also strong in some sectors,
particularly the housing sector
• a dovish central bank
• a relatively mixed to slightly positive Canadian Dollar
• mixed to slightly positive US economy that is gaining strength
• strong housing market
• limited domestic demand and limited pent-up domestic demand
• Slow employment and wage growth
• CPI that has recently risen closer to the BoC’s target
Main Themes of Last Week
• July employment change data a lot worse than expected; part time gains while
full-time increases; no chance of activity from the BoC
• Unemployment rate lower but this is due to lower amount of people looking for
work
• Building permits higher than expected but a bit lower than previous; continuing to
show a strong housing and real estate market in Canada due to low rate environment
• Ivey Purchasing Managers for July higher than expected
• June Trade Balance higher than expected with exports higher while imports fall
showing some weaker domestic demand; higher exports can be contributed to stronger
growth in the US in particular
• CAD CFTC net long positions decreased by a small bit for the week
Price Action and Order Flow of the CAD During Previous Week: vs. the USD it closed
about 65 pips lower.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall mixed to negative sentiment was
reinforced on the negative side as data disappointed overall.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week things are pretty quiet. Housing starts
will be released on July which have bearish expectations while New Housing Price Index
number will be released on Thursday. And Manufacturing Shipments will released on Friday.
But overall should be a pretty quiet week for the CAD, minus movements due to developments
elsewhere. The markets are pretty much not expecting anything from the BoC at this point but if
things continue as they are in the Canadian economy, the next move by the Bank, in my opinion
could be a cut rather than a hike.
Looking at the charts, USD/CAD, bids reside at 1.09000 and then again at the 1.08700 level
while offers reside at about the 1.09800 level with larger ones that will likely come into play at
around the 1.10500 level.
United States Dollar
Main Longer-Term Themes
• economy that is mixed though now improving from a very weak first part
of the year though concerns remain
• housing market that seems to be possibly getting weaker
• a neutral US Fed that is happy to keep rates low for now though that seems
to be slowly changing to the hawkish side
• expectations for a rate hike that is mixed but generally expected within one
year; so by mid to late 2015
• Yields on US debt that are gaining some but are still week; the 2.44% level is
the yearly low and is a key level that is being watched; 10-year has been in a
range for the past few months
• Fed tapering their QE program; plans on ending in October of this year
with a final $15B taper
• A weak government that is doing little to help support and grow the
economy
Main Themes of Last Week
• Little data of importance for the week
• Services PMI a little lower than expected and previous
• Factory Orders higher than previous and expected
• Non-Manufacturing PMI for July higher than expected; New orders and
employment components both higher; overall a good number
• MBA Mortgage Apps higher than previous for the week
• Trade balance data better than expected; though both exports and imports weaken;
imports weaken on auto part supplies that are lower
• Jobless claims fall for the week again; yet another okay sign of the US jobs market
• Non-Farm productivity better than previous
• Unit labor costs lower though
• Wholesale Inventories lower than expected; could bring a lower Q2 revision
• US Durable Goods Revisions better than previous
Price Action and Order Flow of the USD During Previous Week: Versus the PLN it
closed about 135 pips higher. Versus the MXN it closed 750 pips higher, versus the TRY it rose
about 150 pips and versus the Ruble it rose about 70 pips.
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall mixed to slightly positive
sentiment was reinforced on the positive side as domestic data continued to strengthen overall
and the Dollar gained versus its emerging market counterparts as geopolitical worries pushed
the EM currencies lower.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week, things are not so busy in terms of data
but still quite a bit in the amount of data releases. The main focus will be on Retail Sales data on
Wednesday. Expectations are pretty neutral and so any upside surprise will feed into rate hike
expectations as a better number would show increased consumer demand and therefore
possible higher inflation going forward. Other data will be PPI on Friday and Industrial
Production too. Industrial Production will be of interest to me in particular, not the most
important though. With recent industrial production data lower in other parts of the world
recently I can see there being downside risks to same type of data from the US. And on Friday,
UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released with bullish expectations though with recent
geopolitical risks this could have downside risk but, speaking domestically, with the recent jobs
data so good and unemployment continuing to fall, this could help offset any negative tone
from geopolitical worries. Other data will be Business Inventories on Wednesday and JOLTS Job
Openings data on Tuesday. Also of interest by the markets, will be FOMC members’ Fisher and
Dudley speaking during the week, on Monday and Wednesday respectively. With the Fed
seeming to be closer to rate hikes and with what seems to be some divergence going on within
the Fed recently, these members’ words will be closely listened to to give any indication of what
the Fed is thinking. Rates are the big story right now for the US as the market continues to
anticipate when the Fed will raise rates. Expectations continue to be the middle of next year but
if data continues to impress, these expectations could easily be brought forward.
Emerging Markets
Main Longer-Term Themes
• Russia/Ukraine conflict
• Sanctions against Russia and against the West and US from Russia putting growth
expectations on the downside
• Weak growth in Eastern Europe due to Russian/Ukraine conflict
• Continued conflict in Iraq
• Weak growth and government troubles in certain emerging markets (Thailand,
Brazil, Argentina)
• Expectations of reforms that will come soon and continue to come from certain
countries: India, Mexico, Indonesia
• Weak economic conditions in many emerging market economies
• Expectations of lower investment and growth in many of these emerging markets
as the US raises rates, pushing money out of the emerging markets and back to the US
Main Themes of Last Week
• Russian troops gaining on Ukraine’s border raising speculation of an invasion by
Russia for “humanitarian” reasons
• Sanctions against the West and US from Russia including import bans on pork and
vegetables and fruit
• Continued conflict in Iraq as the US strikes Isis militants in an effort to protect
American interests in Iraq
• Argentina defaults on their debt…..again
• Lower EM currencies for the week as US rate expectations continue to build and
negative developments continue to push the EM currencies lower
• Poland official warning of weakness in Poland’s growth going forward as a result
of the sanctions against and from Russia
Overall Sentiment at the End of Last Week: the overall mixed to negative for all the
emerging market was reinforced last week as both government and political events continued
to get worse.
The Week Ahead and Other Thoughts: This week, focus will continue to be on Ukraine,
Russia and Iraq. With expectations continuing to build of an invasion by Russia into Ukraine
and with the US now involved in Iraq….again, things could intensify once again, sending risk
assets lower and safe asset higher.
Upcoming Data for the Week
(Eastern US Time Zone)
Country Release Date Time Exp. Prev.
NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales y/y 08/10 6:45pm 4%
JPY Tertiary Industry Index m/m 08/10 7:50pm 0.2% 0.9%
JPY BoJ Monthly Economic Survey 08/11 1am
JPY Consumer Confidence (July) 08/11 1am 42.3 41.1
Country Release Date Time Exp. Prev.
JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y 08/11 2am 48.7%
CAD Housing Starts y/y 08/11 8:15am 194K 198.2K
NZD REINZ House Price m/m 08/11 -0.3%
NZD House Price Index q/q 08/11 9:30pm 1.1% 1.7%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (July) 08/11 9:30pm 8
JPY Industrial Production y/y 08/12 12:30am 1%
EUR Italy CPI y/y 08/12 4am 0.1% 0.3%
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment - German 08/12 5am 22 27.1
EUR EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment 08/12 5am 41.3 48.1
JPY GDP q/q (Q2) 08/12 7:50pm -1.8% 1.6%
JPY GDP Annualized (Q2) 08/12 7:50pm -7.1% 6.7%
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (Aug) 08/12 9:30pm 94.9
AUD Wage Price Index y/y 08/12 9:30pm 2.6% 2.6%
CNY Retail Sales y/y 08/12 10pm 12.4% 12.4%
CNY Industrial Production y/y 08/12 10pm 9% 9.2%
CNY Urban Investment y/y 08/12 10pm 17.4% 17.3%
GBP Claimant Count Change (July) 08/13 4:30am -30K -36.3K
GBP Avg. Earnings Excluding Bonus 08/13 4:30am 0.7% 0.7%
GBP Claimant Count Rate 08/13 4:30am 3.1%
GBP Avg. Earnings Including Bonus 08/13 4:30am -0.1% 0.3%
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 08/13 4:30am 6.4% 6.5%
EUR Industrial Production y/y 08/13 5am 0.1% 0.5%
GBP BoE Inflation Report 08/13 5:30am
GBP BoE Gov. Carney Speech 08/13 5:30am
USD Retail Sales m/m 08/13 8:30am 0.2% 0.2%
NZD Business NZ PMI (July) 08/13 6:30pm 53.3
NZD Retail Sales ex. Autos q/q (Q2) 08/13 6:45pm 0.8%
NZD Retail Sales q/q (Q2) 08/13 6:45pm 0.7%
Country Release Date Time Exp. Prev.
JPY Machinery Orders m/m (June) 08/13 7:50pm 15.3% -19.5%
EUR German GDP y/y (Q2) 08/14 2am 2.5%
EUR German GDP q/q (Q2) 08/14 2am -0.1% 0.8%
EUR EZ CPI 08/14 5am 0.4% 0.5%
EUR EZ Core CPI 08/14 5am 0.8% 0.8%
EUR GDP y/y (Q2) 08/14 5am 0.7% 0.9%
EUR GDP q/q (Q2) 08/14 5am 0.1% 0.2%
USD Initial Jobless Claims 08/14 8:30am 289K
CAD New Housing Price Index y/y 08/14 8:30am 1.5%
GBP GDP y/y (Q2) 08/15 4:30am 3.1% 3.1%
GBP GDP q/q (Q2) 08/15 4:30am 0.8% 0.8%
USD PPI y/y 08/15 8:30am 1.8% 1.9%
USD Industrial Production m/m 08/15 9:15am 0.3% 0.2%
USD UoM Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 08/15 9:55am 82.2 81.8
Charts
AUD/USD Weekly Chart -- Poised for a break lower or a bounce?
GBP/JPY Daily Chart -- How hungry is it for those bids (green line)?