A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 1








Chapter-1

INTRODUCTION















A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 2


INTRODUCTION ABOUT INTERNSHIP

Internship is an important career stepping stone, an internship will always tell about the
company, strategies, work culture, attitude at work place and many more related to
organizational behavior.
Internship offer the important opportunity to work closely with professionals in our filed, and to
develop knowledge, competencies, and experience related directly to our career goals. If
managed correctly, internships will lead to new contracts, mentors, and references. With
recommendations in hand from business relationships developed during internship, securing a
job becomes much easier.
The project done in MBA really help and support a lot for the future growth.

TITLE OF THE PROJECT
“A Study on Volatility of Bellwether Stocks with respect to Pre and Post Budget Session.”

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Wide price fluctuations and heavy trading within a short span of characterize volatile markets.
Volatility is traditional worry of investors, and is associated with fast growing stocks.
Volatility of stock market is usually caused by company news, economic factors. Share prices
fluctuations affect the investor`s wealth creation. In this context, the study of the impact of
economic events on the movement of share prices in stock market is undertaken. The problem
could be characterized by the lack of information whether the budget is affecting the prices of
bellwether stocks.



A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

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OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
1. To study how share prices of bellwether stocks fluctuate with respect to pre and post
budget session.
2. To analyse the bellwether stocks in which investment can be made at the time of budget.
3. To examine the impact of Budget on the bellwether stocks from 2012 to 2014.
4. To study the correlation between the pre budget session returns and post budget session.

IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY:
 This study aids an investor to know the effect of Budget on share price.
 Research on volatility will help investor to built and plan his investment portfolio by
considering the uncontrollable factors, which would lead to fluctuation in the stock
market by an individual investor.
 Since there are problems associated with volatile stock markets, the study can help the
investors to take informed decisions regarding buying or selling of stocks.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY
 The study is considered the pre and post budget volatility of bellwether stocks.
 The scope of the study is limited to Bellwether stocks where in the following sectors are
selected:
In the year of 2014-15 sectors are Auto mobile, Manufacturing & Infrastructural.
o TATA Motors,
o Ashok Leyland limited
o Larsen & Turbo limited
In the year of 2013-14 sectors are Power, Steel & Textile
o National Thermal Power corporation Limited ,
o STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED (SAIL Ltd,)
o Raymond Limited
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In the year of 2012-13 sectors are FMCG, Banking & Information technology.
o Indian Tobacco Company Ltd
o State Bank of India
o TATA Consultancy Services
The study considers the above companies based on the market capitalization, these
companies reported the highest market capitalization in the related sectors during this period of
study. For this purpose the data relating to 3 years Budget for the selected bell whether stocks in
comparison with market index. The study also helps the investor to understand the working of
market index and the related concepts.
RESEARCH METHODOLGY
This study is based on Analytical study of secondary data.
Methodology of Data Collection:
In order to fulfill the objective of the study, the data is collected from both primary and
secondary sources.
 Primary data
The primary data means it is fresh data collected by researcher concerned with the research
problem refers to the primary data. Personal discussion was made with my external guide. There
is no formal design of questionnaire used in this study.
 Secondary data
The secondary data means already existing data and information available at various sources
made for other purpose but facilitating the study undertaken is called as secondary data.
The various sources that were used to understand the collection of secondary data are:
 Websites of the company
 Newspapers such as Economics Times, Business Line, etc.
 NSE website
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Tools & Techniques Used For the Study
 Risk
o Standard deviation.
The standard deviation is measure of the variables around its mean or it is square root of the
sum of the squared root deviations from the mean divided the number of observation. S.D is used
to measure the variability of return i.e., a measure of dispersion. S.D is calculated as the square
root of variation. In finance investments volatility .S. D is also known as historical volatility and
it`s used by investors as a gauge from the amounted of volatility. The standard deviation can be
calculated by using the following formula,
Standard Deviation (σ) = ∑ Pі (Ri-E(R)) ²
σ = VARIANCE
SD = √ Σ(R- R
1
)
2
/ (n-1)
Return:
A major purpose of investment is to set a return or income on the fund’s investment. On a
bond an investor expects to receive interest. On a stock, dividends may be anticipated. The
investor may expect capital gains from some investments and rental income from house property.
Return is the amount or rate of produce, proceeds, gain, fruit and profit which accrues to an
economic agent from an undertaking or enterprise or investment. It is a reward for and a
motivating force behind investment, the objective of which is usually to maximize return.
Return on a typical investment has two components; the basic one which is the periodic cash or
income receipts, either interest or dividend which is known as current yield; and the other which
is the appreciation or depreciation in the price of value of the asset, called the capital gain or the
capital loss. The capital gain is the difference between the purchase price of the asset and the
price at which it can be or is sold. The income component is usually but not necessarily received
in cash viz., stock dividend. The total return on an investment thus can be defines as income
plus/minus appreciation/depreciation of capital asset.
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Rate of Return:
Rate of Return = [(P
1
-P
0)
÷ P
0
] × 100
Where,
P
1
= current day close price. (Share price in opening)
P
0
=previous day close price. (Share price in closing)
Types of Return
1. Internal rate of return
2. Expected return
3. Rate of return
4. Holding period return

Hypothesis:
The following Null hypothesis (Ho) are formulated and tested to fulfill the objectives of the
study:
H01: The budgets have no significant impact on the returns of bellwether stocks over the study
period.
H02: There exists significant relationship between the budgets and returns of bellwether stocks
over the study period.







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LITERATURE REVIEW
There are some of the reviews of the studies which have been previously undertaken in the
related area of prospective researcher.
Pranav Saraswat (2012) examined the impact of Budget from 1995 to 2010 on the stock market
in terms of volatility of market. The Government Budget announcement is one of the important
factors as it is related to the financial or economic health of country involving all the industries.
The study reveals that in India, the budget mainly affects the stock market in short term mainly
and medium term also.
Gurcharan Singh & Salony Kansal (2010) examined the impact of Budget on stock market by
taking S & P CNX Nifty for the study period 1996 to 2009, segregated in to short term, medium
term and long term periods. The results suggested that the budget have maximum impact on
market trend in short term.
Arindam Gupta, Debashish Kundu (2006) observed the impact in terms of volatility and returns.
Budget exerts the maximum impact in terms of absolute returns immediately on and around
(pre-Post) budget day.
Mohanty (2004) examined the stock prices reaction to announcement of various policies.
Results reflected that stock usually reacted towards the public news quickly, but the first
adjustment is not always the correct one.
Rao (1997) studied the impact of some macroeconomic events including budgets and credit
policy of Government as they can increase the volatility of stock prices of market portfolios.
However, the credit policy announcements were found to have no impact on stock price
behavior.
Parul chotalia studied the impact of budgets of NSE from 2007 to 2011. The minor change at
global level brings surprising movement in stock market index. It is true that share market is the
most sensitive parameter of the economy. It responds negligible changes even immediately. It is
obvious that the budget, economic policy-making decision shall have significant impact on the
sensitive parameter, stock market.

A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

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LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
 The data collected for the research purpose is from secondary data source, finding and
conclusion arrived from the same data on basis of accuracy of data.
 Due to the paucity of the study is restricted to selected companies.
 For the foresaid reason only three years’ data is taken.
 Only Budget is considered.
 This study is restricted to selected companies.
 No primary data was associated with the project.















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Chapter-2
INDUSTRY PROFILE











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INDUSTRY PROFILE
A capital market is market for securities (debt and equity), where business enterprises
(companies) and governments can raise long term funds. It is defined as a market in which
money is provided for periods longer than a year, as the raising of short-term funds takes place
on other markets (e.g., the money market).
STOCK MARKET
Meaning
The market for long-term securities like bonds, equity stocks and preferred stocks is
divided into primary market and secondary market. The primary market deals with the new issue
of securities. Outstanding securities are traded in the secondary market, which is commonly
known as stock market or stock exchange.
INDIAN STOCK BROKING INDUSTRY
The Indian stock broking industry is one of the oldest trading industries that have been
around even before the establishment of the BSE in 1875. Deposit passing through a number of
changes in the post liberalization period, the industry has found its way towards sustainable
growth.
In 1860, the exchange flourished with 60 brokers. In fact the `Share Mania` in India began when
the American Civil War broke and the cotton supply from the US to Europe stopped. Further the
brokers increased to 250. At the end of the war in 1874, the market found a place in a street (now
called Dalal Street).
Pre-Independence Scenario – Establishment of Different Stock Exchanges
1875 “The Native Share and Stock Brokers Association (also known as “The Bombay
Stock Exchange”) was established in Bombay
1894 Establishment of “The Ahmedabad Share and Stock Brokers’ Association”
1908 “The Calcutta Stock Exchange Association” was formed
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1920 Madras witnessed boom and business at “The Madras Stock Exchange” was
transacted with 100 brokers.
1923 When recession followed, number of brokers came down to 3 and the Exchange
was closed down
1937 Re-organization and set up of the Madras Stock Exchange Limited (Pvt.)
Limited led by improvement in stock market activates in South India with
establishment of new textile mills and plantation companies
1994 Establishment of “The Hyderabad Stock Exchange Limited”
1947 “Delhi Stock and share Brokers` Association Limited” and “The Delhi Stocks and
Shares Exchange Association Limited”
Post Independence Scenario
The depression witnessed after the Independence led to closure of exchange in the
country. Lahore stock Exchange was closed down after the partition of India, and later on
merged with the Delhi Stock Exchange. Bangalore Stock Exchange Limited was registered in
1957 and got when they applied for recognition under Securities Contracts (regulations) Act,
1956.
The Exchanges that were recognized under the Act were:
1. Bombay Stock Exchange
2. Calcutta Stock Exchange
3. Madras Stock Exchange
4. Ahmedabad Stock Exchange
5. Delhi Stock Exchange
6. Hyderabad Stock Exchange
7. Bangalore Stock Exchange
8. Indore Stock Exchange
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The Equity Broking Industry in India has several unique features like it is more than a
century old, dynamic, forward looking, and good service providers, well conversant, highly
innovative and even adaptable. The regulations and reforms been laid down in Equity market has
resulted in rapid growth and development. Basically, the growth in the equity market is largely
due to the effective intermediaries. The Broking Houses not only act as an intermediate link for
the equity market but also for the commodity market, Foreign Currency Exchange Market, and
many more. The Broking Houses has also made an impact on the Foreign Investors to invest in
India to certain extent. In the last decade, the Indian brokerage industry has undergone a
dramatic transformation. From being made of close groups, the broking industry today is one of
the most transparent and compliance oriented businesses. Long settlement cycles and large scale
bad deliveries are a thing of the past with the advent of T+2 settlement cycle and
dematerialization. Large and fixed commissions have been replaced by wafer then margins, with
competition driving down the way is conducted. Technology has emerged as key driver of the
business and investment advice has become research based. At the same time, adherence to
regulation and compliance has vastly increased. The scope of services have enhanced from being
equity products to a wide range of financial services. Investor protection has assumed
significance,
Major Players in the stock broking industry
 Religare Securities Ltd
 ICICI Securities Ltd
 India Infoline security Pvt. Ltd
 HDFC Securitas Ltd
 India bulls
 Kotak Securities Ltd
 Fortune Equity Brokers India Ltd
 Sharekhan Securities Ltd
 Motilal Oswal Ltd
 Anand Rathi Securities Ltd

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FINANCIAL MARKETS
The financial markets have been classified as cash market derivatives market, debt
market and commodities market. Cash market, also known as spot market, is the most sought
after amongst investors. Majority of the broking firms are dealing in the cash market, followed
by derivative and commodities. 27% firms are dealing only in the cash market, 35% are into cash
and derivatives. Almost 20% firms trade in cash, derivatives and commodities market. Firms that
are into cash, derivatives and debt are 7%. On the other hand, firms into cash and commodities
are 3%, cash and debt market and commodities alone are 2%. 4% firms trade in all the markets.

In the cash market, around 34% firms` trade at NSE, 14% at BSE and 52% trade at both
exchanges. In the equity derivative market, 48% of the sampled broking houses are members of
NSE and 7% trade at BSE, while 45% of the operate in both exchanges. With 31% and 26%
firms uniquely at NSE and BSE respectively.
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Of the brokers operating in the commodities market, 57% firms operate at NCDEX and MCX.
Around 20% and 21% firms are solely in NCDEX and MCX respectively, whereas 2% firms
trade in NCDEX, MCX and NMCE.





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Products
The survey also revealed that in the past couple of years, apart from trading, the firms
have started offering various investment related value added services. The sustained growth of
the economy in the past couple of years has resulted in broking firms offering many diversified
services related to IPOs, mutual funds, company research etc. However, the core trading activity
is still the predominant form of business, forming 90% of the firms in the sample. 67% firms are
engaged in offering IPO related services. The broking industry seems to have capitalized on the
growth of the mutual fund industry, which was pegged at 40% in 2006. More than 50% of the
sample broking houses deal in mutual fund investment services. The average growth in assets
under management in the last two years is almost 48%. Company research is another lucrative
area where the broking firms offer their services; more than 33% of the firms are engaged in
providing company research services. Additionally, a host of other value added services such as
fundamental and technical analysis, investment banking, arbitrage etc are offered by the firms at
different levels.




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COMPANY PROFILE
Background and Inception of the LKP :
LKP Securities was started as one of India’s first securities brokerage houses in 1948 is today
one of the country’s largest multi-dimensional financial services group.LKP. LKP Finance
Limited is a Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC) registered with Reserve Bank of India & a
listed public limited company having a net worth of Rs.142 crores as on FY10.
It is the India's first financial group to be awarded the prestigious ISO 9002 certified KPMG
Quality Registrar, USA, for certain businesses.
Since 1948, LKP continues to provide clients with a single source capable of meeting all their
needs by its Equities markets, Debt markets, Corporate Finance, Investment Banking, Merchant
Banking, Wealth Management or Commodities.
LKP Securities Limited and its associates enjoy the following registrations & memberships:
1. Category I Merchant Bankers with SEBI.
2. Membership of BSE & NSE (Capital & Debt Market).
3. AMFI registered all India Mutual Fund Distributors.
4. Member of Commodity Exchanges MCX, NCDX and DGCX (Dubai).
5. Member of NSE for Interest Rate Futures.
6. Member of MCX SX and NSE Currency.
Nature of the business carried by LKP Securities:
LKP A legacy in financial expertise From a humble beginning in 1948, LKP Securities
today is a well-established and dynamic broking house in India. Known for it's state-of-the-art
systems and innovative processes, LKP offers a single window advantage to its clients for all
capital and money market related activities.
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LKP offers a wide spectrum of services that includes
 Equity Broking in Cash and Derivatives,
 Internet based trading,
 DP services,
 Research,
 Debt and Money Market Broking,
 Merchant Banking (category 1),
 Merger and Acquisition (M&A),
 Primary Markets,
 Commodity Trading,
 Mutual Fund Distribution, IPO and Life Insurance.
The company proactively delivers the full depth and breadth of broking and other financial
services to its clients through a network of more than 540 branches across India. company
offering Excellent research support, state of the art tools, smart risk management, capital
requirements, excellent order routing and efficient operational practices are the key components.
The company provides superior pre and post trading services to clients through robust technical
architecture.
Vision, Mission and Quality policy of LKP Securities:
Vision:
"To be the leading emerging markets financial services group driven by innovation, delivering
superior value for all stakeholders globally"

Mission:
Providing complete financial care driven by the core values of diligence and transparency.

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Quality policy:
LKP is committed to client satisfaction by offering quality services meeting their
specifications and expectations at competitive prices by customer- employee in involvement and
adopting good quality management systems.
It aims to create and maintain safe and healthy working conditions, protect the
environment, strive for continual improvement of company personnel, quality and process of
services and meet regulatory requirements.
Core values:
Excellence, Fairness, Transparency, Encouraging Research.

BOARD OF DIRECTORS:
Mr M. V. Doshi:
He is the Executive Chairman of LKP. He has done MBA in U.S.A. And he is a promoter
of the company, he has been associated with LKP since 1982. He has over 32 years of
experience in the field of Finance, Capital Markets and Business Administration.
Mr. Pratik Dosh:
He is Director of LKP, hisqualifications M.B.A. in U.K. He was having Over all
approximately seven years business experience in the field of Foreign Exchange, Stock Market
and Commodity Market.

Mr. Sayanta Basu :
He is director of LKP, his qualifications he is an Electronic Engineer from IIT KGP and PGDM
from IIM Bangalore He has a vast experience of 20 years in financial market and has expertise in
M & A, Investment Management and Capital Markets.
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Mr. Milan S. Bhise :
He is an independent Director of LKP. He holds a M. A., L.L.B., D.M.S. and has associated
With LKP since 2011, his experience spans over 18 years in the field of corporate Law and Legal
matters. He is a practicing advocate and proprietor of M/s. Milan Bhise& Co.
Mr. Vineet N. Suchanti:
He is an independent director of LKP. He holds MBA (U.S.A.) and has 14years of of experience
in the field of Finance, Capital Market and Business Administration.
Mr.HariPadmanabhan:
He is the independent Director of LKP. He holds a B Tech from IIT Kanpur and post graduate
from IIM Kolkatta. A serial entrepreneur a global corporate board level executive, mentor and
angel investor. He is also on the board of Prime Focus Ltd, India’s leading film post production
company, and LKP Finance Ltd.











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Products & Service profile of LKP:
Equities Retail:
LKP offers a wide spectrum of services that includes Equity Broking in Cash and Derivatives,
Internet based trading, Demat services & Research services. When clients deal with LKP they
are dealing with a professional broker who has centralized risk management system in place at
Mumbai. LKP follows a hub & spoke model of Branch management where in all the branches &
franchise interact with the hub/regional offices.

Equities Institutional:
The clientele at the institutional desk include Mutual Funds, Financial Institutions, Foreign and
Domestic Institutional investors, Insurance companies, Banks and Corporates. Some of the
esteemed domestic clients include among others – UTI MF, Birla MF, LIC, HDFC MF, Pru
ICICI MF, Reliance MF, Principal MF, Sundaram MF, Tata MF, Benchmark MF, ILFS,
CanaraRobecco MF, ABN Amro MF and FII clients include Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan,
Matterhorn and Blackstone among others. Clients whom we have been serving for the past
twenty-five years include UTI, LIC, IDBI, ICICI, Tata Group, Birla Group, and Dabur, Jain
Irrigation, Emco, Godrej, JB Chemicals, Paper Products and UB Group of Companies among
others.
LKP is the first brokerage house to offer Direct Market Access (DMA) to Institutional Clients on
FT Platform. The company offer research based broking services on the equity as well as
derivative segments to company institutional clients.
Fixed income market:
LKP understands Debt & Money Market in all its dimensions. Recognized as major dealer of
Fixed Income Securities, It execute deals for Banks, Institutions, FIIs, MFs, Insurance
companies, Primary Dealers, large Corporates, PSUs & PF Trusts.

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Retail Distribution
Primary Market Division:
LKP’s vibrant ‘Primary Market’ Division does syndication business in IPOs’, Company Fixed
Deposits, Capital Gain Bonds (U/s 54EC), 8.00% Saving (Taxable) Bonds floated by RBI &
various bonds floated by Central & State Governments. It provides clients with IPO Research
Reports, Recommendations, Pre-printed Public Issue forms, IPO Financing facility& also
continuous updates on Subscription Figures, Basis of Allotment and Listing Dates.
Mutual Funds & Insurance Advisory:
LKP Investment Advisory Services Offer tailor-made wealth management services to Retail,
High Net worth Individual and Corporate Clients. Company strongly believe that Investment
Planning is the stepping stone to achieve one’s financial aspirations.
Insurance Advisory Services exist for both Life and Non life insurance to provide simple &
flexible life insurance products that not only provide security for family but also investment and
long term wealth creation. Companies trained and certified professional consultants will help
investors to make the right decision.
Commodities:
A sister concern of the renowned and trusted LKP Group, Alpha Commodities offers a complete
bouquet of client- friendly services in the burgeoning Commodity Futures market. Commodities
have always been the foundation of world trade, and as they become an increasingly attractive
investment option, LKP at Alpha Commodities look to guide and assist investor in all the
possible ways to help you in all your endeavors in the Commodity markets.
Alpha Commodities provides a host of facilities to their clients, ranging from dealing, investing
or hedging in Commodity Futures which includes Bullions, Metals, Energy and Agro
Commodities.


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Currency Derivatives:
With the launch of currency derivatives, LKP offers its clients yet another segment for trading.
Jointly regulated by SEBI and RBI provides traders with another lucrative trading avenue.
Currency derivatives can be described as a future contract between two parties, to buy or sell the
underlying at a future date, in this case the underlying being a currency. LKP offers currency
derivative trading through NSE - Futures and Options, MCX-SX - Futures.
Depository:
LKP’s Depository Services offer dematerialization services to individual and corporate investors
as a Depository Participant with the Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL).With a
highly experienced team of professionals, backed with sophisticated technical support, and a
national network of franchisees, we ensure quality and convenience in our service.
LKP’s online depository service offers you a paperless and cost effective way to hold your
investments, not to forget the elimination of handling physical documents. We understand that
security is of utmost importance and therefore we have invested in various safety measures and
protocols that ensure your demat account is secure and every transaction is executed only after
its authenticity is established.

The various services provided by us are:
 Dematerialization of Shares.
 Re materialization of Shares.
 Pledging of Share.
 Maintenance of beneficial Holdings.
 Electronic Credit against Corporate Actions.
 SMS alerts on all transactions.


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Value Added Services and Supports:
 Complete back office supported and administration through advanced software.
This software will allow you to access all details of your clients like margin
Requirements, Contracts and Bills ,Sauda Confirmation / Summary etc .,and
facilitates risk management of your clients online from your premises.
 Advanced trading terminal with excellent features for quick and smooth execution
of deals. Additional features include simultaneous visibility of cash and F&O
segments on the same screen allowing implementation of arbitrage strategies for
incremental profit.
 Intra-day tick-by-tick charts for technical analysis at very nominal rates.
 Fundamental research for equities and market outlook through our website
www.lkpsec.com and regular buy/sell recommendations from our technical term.
 LKP Company even provides online depository facilities of pay in and payout
through our CDSL depository.
 24*7 online back-office systems for the partner as well as all their customers.
 Depository services.
 Investment ideas.
 Daily Ideas.
Areas of Operation – Global/National/regional:
LKP Presence in 600 + locations, 70,200 retail and high net worth clients giving nationwide
access. Pan India footprint with 540 branches in 147 cities and strong network to facilitate
research Network of 520 outlets across 220 cities in India with 545 sub brokers and 60 branches.
Head Office:
10th Floor, NarimanBhavan, Vinay k. shah marg
Nariman Point,
Mumbai -400 021,
Maharashtra.
Tel- 91-22-66351234, Fax- 91-22-66351249. Email: www.lkpsec.com
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Offices in India:


7 Zonal office and 500 plus franchise locations. Head office, Branch office, Zonal office.









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Competitors Information:
Today, LKP Securities Ltd. is a well-established brand among retail and individual investors in
India, Even though LKP is facing high level competition in India. Following are the main
competitors of LKP Securities Ltd.

Sl. No Name Of Stock Brokers
1 Kotak Securities Ltd
2 Sharekhan
3 India Infoline
4 Karvy Stock Broking Ltd
5 MotilalOswal
6 Religar
7 Angel Broking
8 Reliance Money
9 AnandRathi Securities Ltd
10 Geojit Financial Service


Infrastructural facilities of LKP:
Broking and distribution business today spans across India from Rameshwaram in the South to
Kashmir in the North; Imphal in the East to Porbandar in the West; there's a LKP Securities
outlet serving the needs of different investors
The LKP Equity Advisory Group is based in Mumbai dealing and advisory floor of India. This
centralized advisory team caters to peculiar Investment need of every HNI & MNI client and
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business partner; in a seamless, speedy and reliable manner using state-of-the-art technology and
telecommunication infrastructure.
All the Branches are connected internally via LAN and externally through VSAT or ISDN
network to provide real time data transfer. Each branch having TV and other electronic medium
to facilitate real time updates and dissemination of information to the customer. The employees
are well trained and qualified Investment advisors to take careof the needs of the customer.
Achievements/Awards of LKP:
 Ranked as No. 2 Arranger by Prime League Tables for the placement of short term debts,
Commercial Papers and ranked No 11 for placement of Long Term Debts.
 One of the top two Intermediaries for secondary market trades on Whole Sale Debt
Market segment of NSE and BSE.
 On panel list is decorated with almost all the prominent Banks, Institutions, Primary
Dealers, Mutual Funds, PSU’s, Insurance Companies, PF/Pension Trusts and Corporates.
 FY 2008-09 is marked with Fertilizer Bonds worth Rs.55Bn being placed for various
fertilizer companies
 In the FY 2008-09 LKP achieved tremendous success with the completion of primary
placement of CPs, NCDs and CD’s of about Rs.480Bn & of Rs. 980 Bn in FY 2009-10
and achieved a turnover of about Rs. 800 Bn in secondary debt market during FY 2008-
09 & of Rs 1748 Bn in FY 2009-10.
 In the FY2008-09 acted as an Arranger for private placement of long term bond issues
aggregating to Rs. 123Bn & of Rs 236 Bn during FY 2009-10






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Work flow model of LKP (end to end):



















CUSTOMER
OPEN A DMAT A/C
FUNDING OF CASH /
SECURITIES
GIVE ORDERS TO BUY OR
SELL
DEALERS WILL PLACE AN
ORDERS
TRADE CONFIRMATION
FROM DEALER
END OF CONTRACT
NOTE
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Future growth and prospects for LKP:
The Future prospects and growth in various field is as follows:
The company has a good network of franchisee and offices in north India and is planning open
more offices in south India.
The company aims to become the market leader in coming 5 years.
MC-KINSEY’S 7-S FRAME WORK with special reference to LKP:
Introduction:
McKinsey introduced the 7-S framework for strategy in the late1970s, The framework maps
seven interrelated factors that influence an organization’s ability to change shared values, skills,
staff, strategy, structure, style, and systems and shows how these forces interact. Unlike Porter’s
Framework, 7-S Framework emphasizes coordination more strongly; 7-S suggests that they can
make significant progress in any of their parts only if they progress in the others. As seen in the
diagram, the interrelations between these elements are equally important compared to the
elements themselves. They all work together :
Mc-kinsey’s 7s model:



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The 7-S elements are distinguished in so called hard S’s and soft S’s. The hard elements like
structure, system and strategy are feasible and easy to identify. The four soft-S like Style, skill,
staff and shared values are hardly feasible. They are difficult to describe since capabilities,
values and elements of corporate culture are continuously changing.
I think 7-S Framework is more important today. The important aspect of 7-S framework is
its simplicity. These elements allow organizations to step back and look at its position in the
global competitive environment holistically. It acts as a complement to Porter’s strategy
framework.
This is about authority and relationship between the executives and the individual contributors of
LKP Securities Ltd as follows.
Structure:


.









LKP SECURITIES
CEO
Mr. M.V.Doshi

National Head
Finance Head Compliance Head
Zone 1
Zone 5
Zone 4
Zone 3
Zone 2
Zone 7
Zone 6
Regional Head
Branch 1
Branch 3
Branch 2
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Business needs to be organized in a specific form of shape that is generally referred to as
organizational structure. Organizations are structured in a variety of ways, dependent on their
objectives and culture. The structure of the company often dictates the way it operates and
performs Traditionally, the businesses have been structured in a hierarchical way with several
divisions and departments, Many layers of management controlled the operations, with each
answerable to the upper layer of management.
Skill:
LKP has experience top management. The promoters are qualified MBA Graduates with over
Three decades of experience each in the financial services industry. All businesses are headed by
independent CEOs who are qualified and experienced professionals having demonstrated track
record in the businesses they lead. The company believe that the management's entrepreneurial
spirit, strong technical expertise, leadership skills, insight into the market and customer needs
provide us with a competitive strength, which will help the company to implement its business
strategies.LKP conducts trainings sessions covering number of participants on various subjects
like effective communication skills, advanced excel, basics of stock market etc.
Style:
Organizations have their own distinct culture and management style. It includes the dominant
values, beliefs and norms which develop over time and become relatively enduring features of
the organizational life. It also entails the way managers interact with the employees and the way
they spend their time. However the culture to a more open, innovative and friendly environment
with fewer hierarchies and smaller chain of command. Culture remains an important
consideration in the implementation of any strategy in the organization.
Strategy:
Strategy is the plan of action an organization prepares in response to, or anticipation of, changes
in its external environment. Well thought through and often practically rehearsed. It deals with
essentially three questions where the organisation is at this moment in time, where the
organisation wants to be in a particular length of time and how to get there. Thus, strategy is
designed to transform the firm from the present position to the new position described by
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objectives, subject to constraints of the capabilities or the potential. The main strategies made by
LKP is to maintain the consistency in quality and provide good quality services to their clients
 Marketing Strategy:
 To attract new customers by promising superior value
 To keep current customers by delivering satisfaction.
 Financial strategy:
 To maximize market share.
Systems:
Every organization has some systems or internal processes to support and implement the strategy
and run day-to-day affairs. The stock market operations are computerized trading system
designed to offer safe and easy way to invest for the investors. The system also include data
collection, storage and utilization for record and appraisal purposes. (Management information
systems i.e. reports of various departments, financial information system i.e. marketing and sales
information, employee information system.). The LKP provide Tele-calling, google chat and
online trading facilities to its clients in order to make the work smoother and faster.
Staff:
The staff of LKP securities Ltd is divided into National Head, Finance Head, Compliance Head,
Zonal Head, Regional Heads, and Branch Heads, Minimum education for the managers is master
degree in MBA and work experience, achievements, or the staffs is master degree. At present the
staff size of LKP is 505.
Shared Values:
Core Purpose and vales of LKP is to be a well-respected and preferred global financial services
organization enabling wealth creation for all their customers. Values of LKP core purpose is
complemented by their organizational values. Living these values, they believe, helps them to
achieve their core purpose.
Integrity: A company honoring commitment with highest ethical and business practices.
Teamwork: Attaining collectively and collaboratively.
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Passion & Attitude: High energy and self-motivation with a ‘Do it’ attitude and
entrepreneurial spirit.
Excellence in Execution: Time bound results within the framework of the company’s
value system.

Study on different Departments of LKP:


1. FINANCE DEPARTMENT:
Finance is said to be the lifeblood of any business thus data gives the proper attention to the
structure of the organization of the finance department. In modern money- oriented economy
finance is one of the basic foundations of all kinds of economic activities.
The Major functions of the Finance department are as follows:
 To Maintain Accounts.
 To Act as custodian of the company property.
 To advice the management on financial aspects

Finance Dept.
Research n
Development
Personnel Dept. Marketing Dept.
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2. RESEARCH DEPARMENT:
Research department covers a wide spectrum from macroeconomics forecasts to penetrating
analysis of companies and sectors; the research is highly rated for its accuracy, clarity and
comprehensive coverage which include Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis & daily
research reports. Research also covers Fixed Income Markets, Mutual Fund Schemes &
Commodities Market.
3. PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT:
The human resource is the key by which the goals and objectives of an organization can be
fulfilled.
FUNCTIONS:
 To maintain good industrial relationship.
 Recruitment of staff and their training and development.
 Performance Appraisal.
 Compensation Policy.
 Providing various welfare polices to its employees.


4. MARKETING DEPARTMENT:
Marketing is a total system of business activities designed to plan; price, promotion and
distribution of want satisfying products to target market to achieve organization objectives. Thus
the essence of marketing is a transaction for exchanger, intended to satisfy human needs and
wants. The major functions carried out are:


 INTEGRATED MARKETING:
 Get the facts.
 Facts analysis and interpretation.
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 Develop and Analyze.
 Plan marketing surveys
 Development marketing programs.
 Layout of the program.
 SELLING:
 Controlling sales and field activities.
 Territory and Quota allotment.
 Development of trade channels.
 Sales promotion and public relation.
 PLANNING:
 Formulating polices and implementation of program.
 Planning and product lining for product development.
 Forecasting research and development program.
 Coordinate with other departments.

This is why the organization has developed an integrated marketing program to reach at every
segment of the society. The 2 major theories are as follows:
 The entire system of business activities should be customer oriented. Customer’s
wants must be recognized and satisfied.
 Marketing should start with an idea about a want satisfying product and should
not end satisfied, which may be sometimes after exchange is made.





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 SWOT ANALYSIS OF LKP:

Strengths:
 Strong brand name. because it established since from 1948.
 Experienced top management.
 Dedicated Research team .
 Provide multi-dimensional financial services to the customer through a strong
network of 540 branches in 147 cities.
 Strong financial performance.
Weakness:
 Focus more on HNIs than retail investors which results in meager market share as
compare to core competitors.
 Lack of awareness among south region customers.
 Localized presence due to in sufficient investment for country wide expansion.




SWOT
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESS
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
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Opportunities:
 It can easily tap the retail investors with small saving through promotional
channels like print media electronic media.
 More and more small investors are entering into commodity market.
 Increasing usage of internet through broad band connectivity may boost a whole
new breed of investors for trading in securities.
 Product and service expansion.
 Regulatory reforms would aid greater participation by all class of investors.
 Economy is growing at healthy rate leading to investment / capital requirement.

Threats:
 Aggressive promotional strategy by close competitors may hamper LKP
acceptance by new clients.
 More and more players are venturing into this domain.
 Exchange rate fluctuations
 External changes (government, politics, taxes, etc)
GENERAL INTRODUCTION:
INVESTMENT:
Investment is the sacrifice of certain present value for the uncertain future reward. Such decision
making has not only to be continuous but rational too. Broadly speaking, an investment decision
is a trade-off between the risk and return.
Investment decisions are found to be the outcome of three different but related classes of factors.
1. The first may be described as factual or informal premises.
2. The second class of factors is exceptional premises.
3. The third class of factors is valuation premises.
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Investing has been an activity confined to the rich and business class in the past. But, today we
find that investment has become common and popular with people from all walks of life.
Increasing popularity of investment can be attributed to the following factors:
1. Increasing in working population, larger family incomes and consequent higher
savings.
2. Provisions of tax incentives with respect to investment in specified channels
3. Increase in tendency of people to hedge against inflation.
4. Availability of large and attractive investment alternatives.
5. Increase in investment related publicity.
6. Availability of investment to provide income and capital gains etc.
THE INVESTMENT PROCESS:
The investment process describes how an investor should go about making decisions about
marketable securities in which to invest, how extensively the investment should be and when the
investment should be made.
The five steps procedure for making these decisions forms the basis of the investment
process:

Set investment
policy.
Perform security
analysis
Perform security
analysis
Revise the
portfolio
Evaluate the
performance of
the portfolio.
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All investment is risky and uncertain. An efficient investor is one with the knowledge of the
market who can reduce the risk and maximize the returns. He can avoid pitfalls and protect his
interests. The management of risk and return requires expertise. Investment is both an art and
science. Investment in financial market is not a gamble or speculation that some investors
indulge in, which is risky.
Investors should be those who invest with the objective of receiving some income, share in the
prosperity of the company and gain capital appreciation in a longer time span.
Investing in stock market is always interesting, challenging and rewarding. Interesting because
the stock market is dynamic; the only certainty is uncertainty. Rewarding because it is risky and
is likely to yield high returns. Stock markets are dynamic, volatile and unpredictable.
Types of investment:
1. Short term investment
2. Long term investments











CCLASSIFICATION OF INVESTMENTS
Short Term
Long Term
Savings Bank Account
Money Market /
Liquid Funds
Fixed deposits with
bank
Post Office Savings
Public Provident
Fund
Securities(Bonds and
Shares)
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Factors influences to the stock price
Broadly there are two factors:
(1) Stock specific and
(2) Market specific.
The stock-specific factor is related to people’s expectations about the company, its future
earnings capacity, financial health and management, level of technology and marketing skills.
The market specific factor is influenced by the investor’s sentiment towards the stock market as
a whole. This factor depends on the environment rather than the performance of any particular
company. Events favorable to an economy, political or regulatory environment like high
economic growth, friendly budget, stable government etc. can fuel euphoria in the investors,
resulting in a boom in the market. On the other hand, unfavorable events like war, economic
crisis, communal riots, minority government etc. depress the market irrespective of certain
companies performing well. However, the effect of market-specific factor is generally short-
term. Despite ups and downs, price of a stock in the long run gets stabilized based on the stock
specific factors. Therefore, a prudent advice to all investors is to analyze and invest and not
speculate in shares
Growth Stocks:
In the investment world we come across terms such as Growth stocks, Value stocks etc.
Companies, whose potential for growth in sales and earnings are excellent, are growing faster
than other companies in the market or other stocks in the same industry are called the Growth
Stocks. These companies usually pay little or no dividends and instead prefer to reinvest their
profits in their business for further expansions.
Value Stocks:
The task here is to look for stocks that have been overlooked by other investors and which may
have a ‘hidden value’. These companies may have been beaten down in price because of some
bad event, or may be in an industry that's not fancied by most investors. However, even a
company that has seen its stock price decline still has assets to its name - buildings, real estate,
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inventories, subsidiaries, and so on. Many of these assets still have value, yet that value may not
be reflected in the stock's price. Investors look to buy stocks that are undervalued, and then hold
those stocks until the rest of the market realizes the real value of the company's assets.
The investor can acquire equity share either by the following two ways,
1. Primary market
2. Secondary market
You may subscribe to issues made by corporate in the primary market. In the primary market,
resources are mobilized by the corporate through fresh public issues (IPOs) or through private
placements. Alternately, you may purchase shares from the secondary market. To buy and sell
securities you should approach a SEBI registered trading member (broker) of a recognized stock
exchange.
Primary Market:
The primary market provides the channel for sale of new securities. Primary market provides
opportunity to issuers of securities; Government as well as Corporates, to raise resources to meet
their requirements of investment and/or discharge some obligation. They may issue the securities
at face value, or at a discount/premium and these securities may take a variety of forms such as
equity, debt etc. They may issue the securities in domestic market and/or international market.
Secondary Market:
Secondary market refers to a market where securities are traded after being initially offered to
the public in the primary market and/or listed on the Stock Exchange. Majority of the trading is
done in the secondary market. Secondary market comprises of equity markets and the debt
markets.




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Particulars Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10
SOURCES OF FUNDS :
Share Capital 12.20 12.34 13.08 13.08 13.08
Reserves Total 146.00 142.12 142.17 140.14 125.53
Equity Share Warrants 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Equity Application Money 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Shareholders Funds 158.20 154.46 155.25 153.22 138.61
Secured Loans 40.19 141.71 109.56 73.28 17.33
Unsecured Loans 39.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Loan Funds 79.23 141.71 109.56 73.28 17.33
Other Liabilities 0.39 0.53 0.32 0.00 0.00
Total Liabilities 237.82 296.70 265.13 226.50 155.94
APPLICATION OF
FUNDS :

Loan / Non-Current Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fixed Assets
Gross Block 2.01 1.92 1.45 5.63 5.53
Less: Accumulated
Depreciation
1.24 1.09 1.00 4.49 4.41
Less: Impairment of
Assets
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Block 0.77 0.83 0.45 1.14 1.12
Lease Adjustment 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Capital Work in Progress 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Investments 36.84 40.71 66.49 64.84 73.52
Current Assets, Loans &
Advances

Inventories 29.33 42.94 48.30 36.75 11.87
Sundry Debtors 0.38 0.05 4.40 3.50 0.10
Cash and Bank Balance 23.70 25.99 28.40 64.95 37.69
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Loans and Advances 154.08 211.78 122.57 72.08 69.16
Total Current Assets 207.48 280.77 203.67 177.28 118.82
Less: Current Liab. &
Provisions

Current Liabilities 4.47 22.78 6.11 6.26 8.47
Provisions 2.84 2.86 3.04 15.20 33.78
Total Current Liabilites&
Provisions
7.31 25.64 9.15 21.46 42.25
Net Current Assets 200.18 255.13 194.52 155.82 76.57
Miscellaneous Expenses not
written off
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Deferred Tax Assets 0.00 0.02 3.60 4.87 4.98
Deferred Tax Liability 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.25
Net Deferred Tax -0.01 0.02 3.60 4.63 4.73
Other Assets 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.00
Total Assets 237.81 296.71 265.13 226.50 155.94
Contingent Liability 8.34 8.34 8.00 5.00 5.00
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Years Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10
Debt-Equity Ratio 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3
Long Term Debt-Equity
Ratio
0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Current Ratio 2 1.8 2 2.5 2.2
Fixed Assets 18.1 20.6 6.3 9.6 1.1
Inventory 1 0.8 0.5 2.2 3.2
Debtors 165.4 15.6 5.6 29.9 195.2
Interest Cover Ratio 1.4 1.6 2 10.2 4
ROCE (%) 9.9 9.6 6.2 19 14.8
RONW (%) 4.8 4.4 3.2 17.9 13
PE 9.5 11.9 17.6 6.1 9.1
EPS 5.8 5.1 3.4 18.4 13.5


 Debt equity ratio has significant increase from march 2010 to 2014
 EPS showing growth from year to year
 PE ratio is decreased from last year to this year
 Current ratio is increasing from last two year








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Chapter -3

THEORITICAL BACKGROUND
OF STUDY










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VOLATILITY: DEFINITION AND MEASUREMENT
In pure financial terms, volatility is defined as, `the degree to which the price of a
security, commodity, or market rises or falls within a short term period`. As is evident from the
definition, volatility relates to the variability in price of a security. In the context of the stock
market, volatility of the market refers to the volatility of the indices of the securities within the
market. In India, for instance, the Bombay stock Exchange (BSE) SENSEX (a 30scrip Weighted
index of market capitalization) would be one of the relevant indices to look into for examining
stock market volatility. When examining the issue of stock market volatility, it is relevant to
measure percentage volatility of stock return. It reflects the change in the investor`s wealth.
Theorists use various measure of volatility like standard deviation, variance, and chi-square test,
to measure volatility of stock market return.
Stock market volatility is often classified as historical (actual) volatility implied
volatility. The most common measure of historical or actual stock market volatility is the
standard deviation. In simple terms, standard deviation measures the deviation of the returns of
equity from its mean return. It is a relative measure i.e., standard deviation of another period to
understand which period has more volatile.
This research is done in the field of Indian share market taking into account three years
data from 2012 to 2014. The research includes how the share prices of various selected
companies vary with regards to economic factor i.e., Budget. The research work includes the
collection of data regarding the share prices of the selected companies during the past five years.

Types of Volatility:
We can review volatility in three contexts:
 Historical volatility
 Implied volatility
 Projected volatility

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Historical volatility:
It refers to the movements, which have been observed in a particular stock price or index over a
given period of time. The volatility can be measured by using the past data on prices (or indices)
and expressed by manner of the Beta, and Coefficient Correlation. For this purpose, daily,
monthly data may be taken. Thus, we may determine volatility for any set of data and compare
the historical data with the prevailing conditions.
Implied volatility:
Implied volatility is a key variable required for determining premium on option. While the entire
input variable for a model like that of Black and Scholes can be easily observed, the standard
deviation of the instantaneous rate of return on the stock can’t be observed. We may estimate its
values from historical data, but there is a second way in which its value can be inferred.
Projected volatility:
This refer to the estimate of future volatility on the basis of past volatility,
Current market analysis and perception of the investor. All trading in options is in a large
measure, on the basis of projected volatility.

STATISTICAL TOOLS USED FOR CALCULATION OF VOLATILITY:
T- Test: T-Test is any statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic follows a student’s t
distribution, if the null hypothesis is supported.
It can be used to determine if two sets of data are significantly different from each other, and is
most commonly applied when the test statistic would follow a normal distribution. If the value of
scaling term in the test statistic were known.
If sample size is small then the distribution of these standardized statistics are for from normality
& consequently test.
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If x
1
,x
2
….x
n
is a random sample of size n from a normal population with mean µ and variance
σ
2
, then students t statistic is defined as:

=∑x/n
S
2=1/ (n-1) ∑(X-

)
2
Variance
The variance is a somewhat abstract measure of the variability in a set of data. Unlike the
variability the standard deviation can be easily conceptualized by plotting it along with the
individual points in the set. It is easy to visualize the standard deviation in this way along with
the data set
Variance (σ²) = ∑ Pi (R-E(R)) ²

OR (σ) ² = N (∑y²) - (∑y) ²
N ²
Coefficient of Correlation:
Coefficient of Correlation is a statistical technique, which measures the degree or extent to which
two or more variables fluctuate with reference to one another. Correlation analysis helps in
determining the degree of relationship between two variables but correlation does not always
imply cause and effect relationship.
The Coefficient of Correlation is essentially the covariance taken not as an absolute value but
relative to the standard deviations of the individual securities. It indicates, in effect, how much x
and y vary together as a proportion of their combined individual variations, measured by SD of x
multiplied by SD of Y

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Correlation Co-efficient
Correlation(r) = [N∑XY-(∑X) (∑Y)] ÷ √ [N∑X
2
- (∑X
2
)] [N∑Y
2
– (∑Y)
2
]
Techniques used for data analysis:
Basically whole data analysis has been performed using spreadsheet in Excel by using different
statistical functions inbuilt in Excel. The following statistical functions have been employed
during the data analysis.
Risk:
Risk is the uncertainty of the income and capital appreciation or loss of both. It is inherent in any
investment. This risk may relate to loss or delay in repayment of the principal capital or loss on
non-payment of the interest or variability of returns. While some securities are almost risk less
like Government securities others are more risky.
The degree of the risk however varies on the basis of the features of the assets, investment
instruments, the mode of the investment, the issuer of security, etc. The uncertainty associated
with the returns from an investment introduces risk into an investment. The possibility of the
variation of the actual return from the expected return in termed as risk. An investment whose
returns are fairly stable is considered as low-risk investment, whereas an investment whose
returns fluctuate significantly is considered to be a high-risk instrument.
Risk depends on the following factors:
 Wrong decision of what to invest in.
 Wrong timings of investments.
 Nature of the investments invested in.
 Creditworthiness of the issuer.
 Maturity period or length of the investment.
 Amount of the investments.
Risks can be classified as Systematic risks and Unsystematic risks.

A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 49

Unsystematic Risks:
The Risk of price change due to the unique circumstance of a specific security, as opposed to the
overall market. This risk can be virtually eliminated from a portfolio through diversification.
These are risks that are unique to a firm or industry. Factors such as management capability,
consumer preferences, labor, etc. contribute to unsystematic risks. Unsystematic risks are
controllable by nature and can be considerably reduced by sufficiently diversifying one's
portfolio.
Systematic Risks:
Risk, which is common to an entire class of assets or liabilities. The value of investments may
decline over a given time period simply because of economic changes or other events that impact
large portions of the market. Asset allocation and diversification can protect against systematic
risk because different portions of the market tend to underperformed at different times, also
called Market Risk.











A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 50





CHAPTER- 4


ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETAION









A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 51

FMCG & Consumer Durables:
The budget was largely positive for the FMCG & Consumer durable sector. While cigarettes will
become expensive for consumers, the rate hike was lesser than expectations Further, hike in
excise duty on beedi and other tobacco products is positive for cigarette manufacturers and could
lead to consumers shifting to cigarettes. Excise duty on cigarettes increased by 10%, Ad valorem
duty to be imposed on some cigarettes – cigarettes will become expensive. Hike in excise duty
on beedi and other tobacco products
















A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 52

Indian Tobacco Company:
Table NO 4.1 Showing of Indian Tobacco Company Ltd stock prices and returns of pre
and post budget session for year 2012-2013:
Date Close prices Days Return
2-Mar-12 205.25
-10
-0.77
3-Mar-12 205
-9
-0.12
5-Mar-12 207
-8
0.97
6-Mar-12 210.4
-7
1.64
7-Mar-12 209.95
-6
-0.21
9-Mar-12 208.25
-5
-0.80
12-Mar-12 206.8
-4
-0.69
13-Mar-12 209.05
-3
1.08
14-Mar-12 212.5
-2
1.65
15-Mar-12 208.9
-1
-1.69
16-Mar-12 216.15
0
3.47
19-Mar-12 220.5
1
2.01
20-Mar-12 223.6
2
1.40
21-Mar-12 223.85
3
0.11
22-Mar-12 219.7
4
-1.85
23-Mar-12 222.45
5
1.25
26-Mar-12 222.7
6
0.11
27-Mar-12 226.05
7
1.50
28-Mar-12 226.8
8
0.33
29-Mar-12 224.55
9
-0.99
30-Mar-12 226.9
10
1.04





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ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 53

Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of Indian Tobacco Company For the period of 21
days prior pre-budget along with high return 1.65% & post budget highest is 2.01%. The
standard deviation denotes 2.35 during the pre budget and 2.47during post budget session. The
percentage change between the standard deviation stood to 4.86%. The variance is 5.53 and 6.10
during pre and post budget session respectively.

Graph NO 4.1 Trend Movement of Indian Tobacco Company Ltd returns pre and post
budget session for year 2012-13:

Interpretation:
The market is more volatile in the pre budget session but not much positively volatile in the post
budget session.




-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 54

Banking sector:
 Rs. 15,888 Cr. For recapitalization of Public sector banks, RRB and NABARD
o Fresh infusion of equity for banks to meet Basel-iii norms and to fund future
growth
 Target for agricultural credit to Rs.5075 lakh Cr.
o More loans have to be disbursed to framing sector
 Interest income up to Rs.10,000 from saving bank accounts to be exempted for those
having an income up to Rs.5 lakhs
Table NO 4.2. Showing of State Bank of India company stock prices and returns of pre and post
budget session for year 2012-13:
Date Close prices Days Return
2-Mar-12 2246.7 -10 1.25
3-Mar-12 2250.85 -9 0.18
5-Mar-12 2176.05 -8 -3.32
6-Mar-12 2147.85 -7 -1.29
7-Mar-12 2141.55 -6 -0.29
9-Mar-12 2226.4 -5 3.96
12-Mar-12 2310.8 -4 3.79
13-Mar-12 2327.5 -3 0.72
14-Mar-12 2354.8 -2 1.17
15-Mar-12 2299.3 -1 -2.35
16-Mar-12 2227.9 0 -3.10
19-Mar-12 2157.55 1 -3.15
20-Mar-12 2187.35 2 1.38
21-Mar-12 2232.85 3 2.08
22-Mar-12 2160.6 4 -3.23
23-Mar-12 2166.75 5 0.28
26-Mar-12 2117.45 6 -2.27
27-Mar-12 2129.15 7 0.55
28-Mar-12 2079.25 8 -2.34
29-Mar-12 2061.35 9 -0.86
30-Mar-12 2096.35 10 1.69
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 55

Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of State Bank of India for the period of 21 days
prior pre-budget along with high return 3.79% & post budget highest is 2.08%. The standard
deviation denotes 75.51 during the pre budget and 52.39during post budget session. The
percentage change between the standard deviation stood to (-30.61%). The variance is 5701.83
and 2745.12 during pre and post budget session respectively.

Graph NO.4.2 Trend Movement of State Bank of India Company returns pre and post
budget session for year 2012-13:


Interpretation: The banking sector bellwether stock indicates that the pre budget returns are
highly volatile with positive but in post budget session returns are volatile with positive and
negative also.




-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 56

Information Technology:
 Introduction of Advance Priding Agreement (APA) in the finance bill of 2012
 Central plan outlay by the department of Information Technology (IT) increased by
86.7% to Rs. 53.6 billion.
 A national information utility (NIU) for the computerization of public distribution system
is being created.
 It is expected to become operational by December 2012.
Table NO.4.3 Showing of TATA Consultancy Services company stock prices and returns of
pre and post budget session for year 2012-13:
Date Close prices Days Return
2-Mar-12 1,217.25
-10
-0.19
3-Mar-12 1,218.40
-9
0.09
5-Mar-12 1,207.30
-8
-0.91
6-Mar-12 1,202.00
-7
-0.43
7-Mar-12 1,192.85
-6
-0.76
9-Mar-12 1,208.55
-5
1.31
12-Mar-12 1,189.05
-4
-1.61
13-Mar-12 1,197.00
-3
0.66
14-Mar-12 1,154.55
-2
-3.54
15-Mar-12 1,163.70
-1
0.79
16-Mar-12 1,169.55
0
0.50
19-Mar-12 1,122.00
1
-4.06
20-Mar-12 1,134.85
2
1.14
21-Mar-12 1,175.75
3
3.60
22-Mar-12 1,167.75
4
-0.68
23-Mar-12 1,184.65
5
1.44
26-Mar-12 1,161.60
6
-1.94
27-Mar-12 1,174.75
7
1.13
28-Mar-12 1,165.10
8
-0.82
29-Mar-12 1,141.20
9
-2.05
30-Mar-12 1,168.80
10
2.41
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 57


Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of TATA Consultancy Services for the period of 21 days
prior pre-budget along with high return 1.31% & post budget highest is 3.60%. The standard
deviation denotes 20.19 during the pre budget and 19.41 post budget sessions. The percentage
change between the standard deviation stood to (-3.86%). The variance is 407.56 and 376.90
during pre and post budget session respectively.

Graph NO.4.3 Trend Movement of TATA Consultancy Services company returns pre and
post budget session for year 2012-13:

Interpretation:
The Information Technology sector stocks showing that there is a quite volatility in stock in pre
budget session with expectations. On budget day the returns TATA consultancy Services is
4.24%. And in the post budget session also the returns are positive.



-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 58

2013-14
Power Sector:
 The power sector faces challenges on multitude front with 1) DISCOM restructuring
facing a roadblock due to inability of states to support the restructuring exercise 2)
continuing high AT&C losses making DISCOM threatening viability and 3) slower coal
production growth (4-5% CAGR) vis-a-vis 8-9% CAGR over the 12th Plan.
 NTPC Limited Company NTPC imports ~10% i.e. 16MT of 160MT coal requirement
and has pass-through PPAs. Consequently, the increase in steam coal prices would not
affect the company. On the other hand, as 80IA extension is positive as it plans to
commission 2.4GW in FY14.














A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 59

Table NO 4.4 Showing of NTPC Limited company stock pre and post budget session for
year 2013-14
Date Close prices Days Return
15-Feb-13 149.95
-10
0.43
18-Feb-13 151.1
-9
0.76
19-Feb-13 153.5
-8
1.58
20-Feb-13 152.4
-7
-0.71
21-Feb-13 152
-6
-0.26
22-Feb-13 151.55
-5
-0.29
25-Feb-13 149.85
-4
-1.12
26-Feb-13 151
-3
0.76
27-Feb-13 153.85
-2
1.88
28-Feb-13 150.9
-1
-1.91
1-Mar-13 150.05
0
-0.56
4-Mar-13 149.35
1
-0.46
5-Mar-13 149.55
2
0.13
6-Mar-13 148.45
3
-0.73
7-Mar-13 148.15
4
-0.20
8-Mar-13 149.05
5
0.60
11-Mar-13 149.6
6
0.36
12-Mar-13 147.8
7
-1.20
13-Mar-13 146.8
8
-0.67
14-Mar-13 146.85
9
0.03
15-Mar-13 145.95
10
-0.61

Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of NTPC limited for the period of 21 days prior pre-
budget along with high return 1.88% & post budget highest is 0.60%. The standard deviation
denotes 1.35 during the pre budget and 1.29 post budget sessions. The percentage change
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 60

between the standard deviation stood to (-4.44%). The variance is 1.82 and 1.65 during pre and
post budget session respectively.

Graph NO.4.4Trend Movement of NTPC Limited Company returns pre and post budget
session for year 2013-14:



Interpretation: The above graph is showing that the returns of the company are positive in pre
budget session. But in post budget session the returns are much negatively volatile.






-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 61

Steel sector:
 While the demand outlook continues to remain highly uncertain, the domestic steel
industry is witnessing a continuous rise in crude steel capacity. CARE Research expects
domestic steel capacity to increase at a CAGR of about 7.3 percent during the period
FY12 to FY17, marginally at a faster pace than the increase in domestic steel demand.
 Going forward favorable economic policy, prudent regulatory process, broad anti-
dumping measures and increased investment in research and development are needed to
provide impetus to the industry as a whole and fade away the short-term concerns.
 Increase in customs duty and CVD on steam coal is likely to result in increase in cost of
production.














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ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 62

Table NO 4.5. Showing of Steel Authority Of India Ltd company stock pre and post budget
session for year 2013-14:
Date Close prices Days Return
15-Feb-13 77.85
-10
0.32
18-Feb-13 78
-9
0.19
19-Feb-13 78.5
-8
0.64
20-Feb-13 78.85
-7
0.445
21-Feb-13 75.95
-6
-3.67
22-Feb-13 76.5
-5
0.72
25-Feb-13 74.95
-4
-2.02
26-Feb-13 72.75
-3
-2.93
27-Feb-13 74.35
-2
2.19
28-Feb-13 70.9
-1
-4.64
1-Mar-13 71.6
0
0.98
4-Mar-13 68.2
1
-4.74
5-Mar-13 69.5
2
1.90
6-Mar-13 70.45
3
1.36
7-Mar-13 69.1
4
-1.91
8-Mar-13 70.35
5
1.80
11-Mar-13 70.45
6
0.14
12-Mar-13 70.9
7
0.63
13-Mar-13 70.9
8
0
14-Mar-13 70.55
9
-0.49
15-Mar-13 68.75
10
-2.55






A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 63

Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of Steel Authority Of India Ltd company limited for
the period of 21 days prior pre-budget along with high return 2.19% & post budget highest is
1.90%. The standard deviation denotes 2.63 during the pre budget and 0.96 post budget sessions.
The percentage change between the standard deviation stood to (- 63.49%). The variance is 6.92
and 0.92 during pre and post budget session respectively.

Graph NO.4.5.Trend Movement of Steel Authority Of India Ltd company Company
returns pre and post budget session for year 2013-14:

Interpretation:
The graph showing that Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) returns are not much volatile in
pre budget session. In post budget session returns are highly volatile with the positive news from
the budget to steel sector, And also continuous increase in steel demand.




-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 64


Textile Sector:
 The ‘Zero excise duty route’, • as existed prior to Budget FY12, is being re-established
with respect to branded readymade garments and made-ups. Going by this, in the case of
cotton, there will be zero duty at the fiber stage also and in the case of spun yarn, there
will be a duty of 12% at the fiber stage. The ‘zero excise duty route’ will be in addition to
the CENVAT route now available.
 Allocation of ` 0.5 billion to the Ministry of Textiles for establishing apparel parks within
the Scheme for Integrated Textile Parks (SITP).
 Allocation of ` 0.96 billion to the Ministry of Textiles to provide working capital and
term loans at a concessional interest rate of 6%.
 The existing Technology Up gradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) for the textiles sector to
continue. Allocation of ` 24 billion for modernization of the power loom sector.
 The Integrated Processing Development Scheme with plan disbursement of ` 5 billion
would be implemented in the 12th Five Year Plan for addressing environmental issues
faced by the textiles industry. It is proposed to provide ` 0.5 billion in FY14 for the
scheme.









A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 65


Table NO. 4.6. Showing of Raymond Limited company stock pre and post budget session
for year 2013-14:
Date Close prices Days Return
15-Feb-13 341.5
-10
-0.04
18-Feb-13 349.6
-9
2.37
19-Feb-13 356.4
-8
1.94
20-Feb-13 358.6
-7
0.61
21-Feb-13 343.65
-6
-4.16
22-Feb-13 337.75
-5
-1.71
25-Feb-13 338.3
-4
0.16
26-Feb-13 333.15
-3
-1.52
27-Feb-13 329.15
-2
-1.20
28-Feb-13 311.15
-1
-5.46
1-Mar-13 317.05
0
1.89
4-Mar-13 310.85
1
-1.95
95-Mar-13 321.2
2
3.32
6-Mar-13 325.55
3
1.35
7-Mar-13 321.1
4
-1.36
8-Mar-13 321.1
5
0
11-Mar-13 321.2
6
0.03
12-Mar-13 320.4
7
-0.24
13-Mar-13 313.05
8
-2.29
14-Mar-13 309.3
9
-1.19
15-Mar-13 299.3
10
-3.23





A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 66


Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of Raymond Limited for the period of 21 days prior pre-
budget along with high return 2.37% & post budget highest is 3.32%. The standard deviation
denotes 13.83 during the pre budget and 7.99 post budget sessions. The percentage change
between the standard deviation stood to (-42.23%). The variance is 191.95 and 63.86 during pre
and post budget session respectively.


Graph NO.4.6.Trend Movement of Raymond Limited Company returns pre and post
budget session for year 2013-14:

Interpretation:
The above graph showing that pre budget returns are quite volatile. Post budget returns are more
positively volatile.



-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 67




2014-15
Auto mobile sector:
 The auto sector has slowed down significantly in the last few quarters. Car sales continue
to remain subdued. At such a time, the government has announced a reduction in excise
duty – the tax on goods produced within the country – across different segments. Excise
duty on small cars, two-wheelers and commercial vehicles has been cut to 8% from 12%,
while that on Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs) has been reduced to 24% from 30% earlier.
Large and mid-segment cars will attract an excise duty of 20%. This is expected to make
cars cheaper.
 Excise duty on SUVs reduced to 24%,on large cars to 20%










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ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 68

Table NO. 4.7 Showing of TATA MOTORS company stock pre and post budget session for
year 2014-15:
Date Close prices Days Returns (%)
5-Feb-14 355.1
-10
2.67
6-Feb-14 357.65
-9
0.71
7-Feb-14 360.2
-8
0.71
10-Feb-14 364.05
-7
1.06
11-Feb-14 374.5
-6
2.87
12-Feb-14 376.65
-5
0.57
13-Feb-14 375.95
-4
-0.18
14-Feb-14 388.8
-3
3.41
17-Feb-14 386.6
-2
-0.56
18-Feb-14 391.4
-1
1.24
19-Feb-14 391.5
0
0.02
20-Feb-14 391.85
1
0.08
21-Feb-14 396.2
2
1.11
24-Feb-14 396.55
3
0.08
25-Feb-14 398.5
4
0.49
26-Feb-14 401.2
5
0.67
28-Feb-14 416.95
6
3.92
3-Mar-14 410.7
7
-1.49
4-Mar-14 412.9
8
0.53
5-Mar-14 409.6
9
-0.79
6-Mar-14 408.45
10
-0.28

Analysis: The above table shows the share prices of TATA Motors for the period of 21days prior
pre-budget along with high return 3.41% & post budget highest is 3.92%. And the standard
deviation denotes 13.32 during the pre budget and 9.20 during post budget session. The
percentage change between the standard deviation stood to (-30.93%). The variance is 191.95
and 63.86 during pre and post budget session respectively.
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 69

Graph NO.4.7 Trend Movement of TATA MOTORS pre and post budget session for year
2014-15:

 Interpretation:
The above graph indicates that the returns of the company are volatile in pre budget session
but not volatile in post budget session effected quite negatively.
Manufacturing Sector:
 The sluggish import is a matter of concern for manufacturing and domestic trade sector.
 8 National Investment and Manufacturing Zones (NIMZ) along Delhi Mumbai Industrial
Corridor (DMIC) have been announced. 9 Projects had been approved by the DMIC trust.
 3 more Industrial Corridors connecting Chennai and Bangalore, and Mumbai & Amritsar
and Kolkata are under different stages of preparatory works.
 Additional capacities are being installed in major manufacturing industries
 The huge focus on building up manufacturing sector.
 National manufacturing policy is set to revive manufacturing in 2014


-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 70

Table NO. 4.8. Showing of Ashok Leyland limited company stock pre and post budget
session for year 2014-15:

Date Close prices Days Returns
(%)
5-Feb-14 16
-10
-2.73
6-Feb-14 15.95
-9
-0.31
7-Feb-14 16.1
-8
0.94
10-Feb-14 15.65
-7
-2.79
11-Feb-14 15.7
-6
0.31
12-Feb-14 15.6
-5
-0.63
13-Feb-14 15.5
-4
-0.64
14-Feb-14 15.6
-3
0.64
17-Feb-14 15.35
-2
-1.60
18-Feb-14 15.35
-1
0
19-Feb-14 15.65
0
1.95
20-Feb-14 15.65
1
0
21-Feb-14 15.7
2
0.31
24-Feb-14 15.5
3
-1.27
25-Feb-14 15.5
4
0
26-Feb-14 15.7
5
1.29
28-Feb-14 15.65
6
-0.31
3-Mar-14 15.55
7
-0.6
4-Mar-14 15.6
8
0.32
5-Mar-14 16.15
9
3.52
6-Mar-14 16
10
-0.92



A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 71

Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of Ashok Leyland limited for the period of 21days prior
pre-budget along with high return 1.51% & post budget highest is 6.32%. And the standard
deviation denotes 0.26 during the pre budget and 0.21 during post budget session. The
percentage change between the standard deviation stood to (-19.23%). The variance is 0.07 and
0.05 during pre and post budget session respectively.
Graph NO.4.8 Trend Movement of Ashok Leyland limited company returns pre and post
budget session for year 2014-15:

Interpretation:
The pre budget session returns are more negatively volatile. As the budget is positive news also
the market returns are not much volatile in post budget session. Market is not responding in both
session of budget.
Infrastructure Sector:
 In 2012-13 and in nine months of the current financial year, 29, 350 MW of power
capacity, 3, 928 kilometers of National Highways, 39, 144 kilometers of Rural Roads,
3,343 kilometers of New Railway track and 217.5 million tones of capacity per annum in
our ports have been created to give a big boost to infrastructure industries.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-
1
0

-
9

-
8

-
7

-
6

-
5

-
4

-
3

-
2

-
1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1
0

RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 72

 19 Oil and Gas blocks were given out for exploration and 7 new Air ports are under
construction.
 296 projects worth Rs 660000 crrore cleared by cabinet committee on investment by end
January 2014.
Table NO. 4.9. Showing of Larsen & Toubro Limited company stock pre and post budget session
for year 2014-15:
Date Close prices Days Returns (%)
5-Feb-14 985.4
-10
0.24
6-Feb-14 975.25
-9
-1.03
7-Feb-14 984.15
-8
0.91
10-Feb-14 995.9
-7
1.19
11-Feb-14 993.65
-6
-0.22
12-Feb-14 1,010.50
-5
1.69
13-Feb-14 986.95
-4
-2.33
14-Feb-14 992.75
-3
0.58
17-Feb-14 998.3
-2
0.55
18-Feb-14 1,017.40
-1
1.91
19-Feb-14 1,031.30
0
1.36
20-Feb-14 1,034.65
1
0.32
21-Feb-14 1,055.15
2
1.98
24-Feb-14 1,084.65
3
2.79
25-Feb-14 1,087.90
4
0.29
26-Feb-14 1,096.65
5
0.80
28-Feb-14 1,109.65
6
1.18
3-Mar-14 1,097.55
7
-1.09
4-Mar-14 1,116.70
8
1.74
5-Mar-14 1,123.35
9
0.59
6-Mar-14 1,142.50
10
1.70

A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 73

Analysis:
The above table shows the share prices of Larsen & Turbo Limited for the period of 21days prior
pre-budget along with high return 1.91% & post budget highest is 2.79%. And the standard
deviation denotes 12.54 during the pre budget and 31.87 during post budget session. The
percentage change between the standard deviation stood to 60.65%.The variance is 157.32 and
1015.80 during pre and post budget session respectively.

Graph NO.4.9.Trend Movement of Larsen & Turbo Limited Company returns pre and
post budget session for year 2014-15:




Interpretation: the above graph showing that there is negative returns before the budget period.
In the post budget session negative but not much as in pre budget session.


-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
RETURN
RETURN
A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 74







Chapter-5

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION
AND
SUGGESTIONS






A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 75


2012:
Sectors Effect Correlation t value P
value(two
tailed)
Results
FMCG & consumer
durables(ITC Ltd)
positive Negatively
correlated (-0.77)
-0.55 0.594 H
0
is
Accepted
Banking Sector(State
Bank of India)
positive Negatively
correlated(-0.41)
0.83 0.430 H
0
is
Accepted
Information
Technology(TATA
consultancy services)
Positive Positively
correlated(0.04)

-0.56 0.586 H
0
is
Accepted


We can infer the findings from the study that ITC Ltd was quite volatile during the budget period
with the pre budget standard deviation of 2.35 and post budget with 2.47, so we can find that
there was a 5.10% change in the standard deviation it means the risk is increased in the post
budget session for the investors.
We can infer the findings from the study State Bank of India was positive volatile during the
budget period with the pre budget standard deviation of 75.51 and post budget with 52.39, so we
can find that there was a -30.61% change in the standard deviation it means the risk in the State
Bank of India stocks is decreased.
We can infer the findings from the study TATA consultancy Services was negative volatile
during the budget period with the pre budget standard deviation of 21.31 and post budget with
20.19, so we can find that there was a -5.25% change in the standard deviation it means the risk
in the TATA consultancy services stocks is decreased.


A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

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2013
Sectors Effect Correlation T value p value(Two
tailed
Results
Power
sector(NTPC
Limited)
Negative Positively
correlated(0.1629)
0.99 0.347 H
0
is
Accepted
Steel Sector
(SAIL)
Negative Negatively
correlated(-0.04)
-0.49 0.635 H
0
is
Accepted
Textile Sector
(Raymond
Limited)
Positive Positively
correlated(0.64)

-0.56 0.588 H
0
is
Accepted


We can infer the findings from the study that National Thermal Power corporation Limited was
positive volatile during the budget period with the pre budget standard deviation of 1.35 and
post budget with 1.29, so we can find that there was a -4.44% change in the standard deviation it
means the risk is decreased in the post budget session for the investors.
We can infer the findings from the study that STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED
(STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED (SAIL) was quite volatile during the budget period
with the pre budget standard deviation of 2.63 and post budget with 0.96, so we can find that
there was a -63.49% change in the standard deviation it means the risk is decreased in the post
budget session for the investors.
We can infer the findings from the study that Raymond Limited was quite volatile during the
budget period with the pre budget standard deviation of 13.85 and post budget with 7.99, so we
can find that there was a -42.31% change in the standard deviation it means the risk is decreased
in the post budget session for the investors.


A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 77

2014
Sectors Effect Correlation T value P value(Two
tailed)
Results
Automobile
sector(TATA
motors)
positive Positively
correlated(0.15)
1.43 0.18 H
0
is
Accepted
Manufacturing
sector(Ashok
Leyland Ltd)
Negative Negatively
correlated(-0.26)
-1.35 0.20 H
0
is
Accepted
Infrastructure
Sector(L&T
Limited)
negative Positively
correlated(0.50)

-1.79 0.10 H
0
is
Accepted


We can infer the findings from the study that TATA motors was positive volatile during the
budget period with the pre budget standard deviation of 13.32 and post budget with 9.20, so we
can find that there was a -30.93% change in the standard deviation it means the risk is decreased
in the post budget session for the investors.
We can infer the findings from the study that Ashok Leyland Limited was marginally negative
volatile during the budget period with the pre budget standard deviation of 0.26and post budget
with 0.21, so we can find that there was a -19.23% change in the standard deviation it means the
risk is decreased in the post budget session for the investors.
We can infer the findings from the study that Larsen and Turbo Limited was negative volatile
during the budget period with the pre budget standard deviation of 12.54 and post budget with
31.87, so we can find that there was a 154% change in the standard deviation it means the risk is
increased in the post budget session for the investors.


A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 78

SUGGESTION AND RECOMMENDATION:
1. The union budget affects the stock market, so close examination should be made during
the budget session.
2. For an investor who is willing to take high risk an ideal portfolio would be consists of
state bank of India, Steel Authority Of India Limited (Steel Authority Of India Limited
(SAIL) & TATA Motors.
3. Hence an ideal risk free portfolio would be ITC Ltd, TCS & National Thermal Power
Corporation Limited during the budget.
4. Stock of L&T Ltd is highly risky during the budget and hence careful work should be
done before investing.
5. If budget contains any proposal regarding corporate tax i.e. if percentage of corporate tax
is reduced then the share prices increases and if percentage is increased hence the share
prices will decrease.












A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 79


CONCLUSION
The Government Budget announcement is one of the important factors as it is related to the
financial or economic health of country involving all the industries. The study reveals that in
India, the budget mainly affects the stock market in short term.

It is true that share market is the most sensitive parameter of the economy. It responds negligible
changes even immediately. It is obvious that the budget, economic policy-making decision shall
have significant impact on the sensitive parameter, stock market.

The study examines the casual relationship between the share prices of the selected Bellwether
Stocks of effected sectors and budget.
1. There are certain recommendations made in budget that affects’ the share prices of all the
industries. And there is a certain recommendation that affects only Bellwether Stocks.
2. The stock market will also affect depending on the financial decisions’ taken up by the
finance minister during the budget session.
3. Share prices fluctuate mainly due to
 Company news
 Country news (Budget).
4. Exemptions on duties of certain raw material used in different industries will affect on the
finished good to be produced.
5. More the favorable factors than the unfavorable in union budget will increases in the
share prices, if unfavorable factors is more than favorable in union budget then will
decreases.




A STUDY ON VOLATILITY OF BELLWETHER STOCKS WITH RESPECT TO PRE AND POST BUDGET SESSION

ACHARYA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BANGALORE Page 80


BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books:
1. S.C.Gupta, Fundamentals of statistics, Himalaya Publishing House, Seventh
revised and Enlarged Edition: 2012
Articles:
1. Gupta Arindam and Kundu Debashis (2006), “A Study of the Impact of Union
Budget on Stock Prices in India”, The ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance,
Vol.12, No.12, pp65-76.
2. Rao S.V.D Nageswara (1997), “Impact of Macroeconomic Events on Stock
Price Behaviour”, Management and Accounting Research, Vol 1, No.1, pp.
46-67.
3. Mohanty Munmum (2004), “Stock Market Reaction to Announcement of
Policy Changes” In “The ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance”, Dec 2004

Websites
1. Www. Fortune.co.in
2. www.nseindia.com
3. www.investopedia.com
4. www.myiris.com
5. www.moneycontrol.com
6. www.yahoofinance.com
7. http://financialdictionary.
8. http://finmin.nic.in/
9. www.euroojournals.com/finance.htm
10. http:/indiabudget.nic.in


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