The diffusion of mobile phones in India

-
Sanjay Kumar Singh*
July, 2006
Address for orrespondene!
Dr. Sanjay K. Singh
Assistant Professor of Economics
Department of Humanities and Social Sciences
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
Kanpur – !"!#$
%ttar Pradesh& India.
E'mail( sanjay)iit*.ac.in
+a, ( -.#'/#'/.'0/#!
Phone ( -.#'/#'/.'0/!# 123
( -.#'/#'/.'"44 153
6 Assistant Professor of Economics in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences at
Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur& India.
!
Abs"ra"
7o8ile phones& 9hich 9ere introduced a decade ago in #../'.$ in India& are 8ecoming the
dominant means of accessing communication. At the end of !!/'!$& there 9ere .! million
mo8ile su8scri8ers in India in comparison to /! million su8scri8ers for landlines. The
increase in mo8ile phones has 8een phenomenal in comparison to landlines since the
introduction of mo8iles in the country. The main aim of this paper is to estimate the future
trend and analy:e the pattern and rate of adoption of mo8ile phones in India. The paper uses
S'shaped gro9th cur;e models for the same. It is found that mo8ile'density 1num8er of
mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants3 in India 9ill increase from ".# in !!/'!$ to 4$./ in
!#!'## and 0# in !#/'#$. <onse=uently& mo8ile su8scri8er 8ase is projected to increase
from .! million in !!/'!$ to >44 million in !#!'## and nearly .!! million in !#/'#$.
Due to this& re;enues collected 8y mo8ile operators and the go;ernment 9ill increase
su8stantially during the coming years. 7o8ile operators? re;enue is projected to increase
appro,imately from 5s. >!/ 8illion in !!/'!$ to 5s. 44$ 8illion in !#/'#$. The
go;ernment?s re;enue from regulatory charges 1that is& license fee including uni;ersal
ser;ice o8ligation le;y and spectrum charges3 and ser;ice ta, is estimated to increase
appro,imately from 5s. .! 8illion 15s. /! 8illion from regulatory charges and 5s. >! 8illion
from ser;ice ta,3 in !!/'!$ to 5s. 0!! 8illion 15s. 4!! 8illion from regulatory charges and
5s. >!! 8illion from ser;ice ta,3 in !#/'#$. The projected rapid gro9th in mo8ile sector
9ill ha;e important implications for future plans of mo8ile operators& infrastructure
pro;iders& handset suppliers& and ;endors. 7o8ile operators should 8e ready 9ith
contingency plans to deploy and operate infrastructure including customer care& 8illing&
applications& etc.& faster than that they might ha;e initially planned. Infrastructure pro;iders&
handset suppliers& and ;endors should 8e prepared to respond to such plans.
J#$ lassifia"ion! </4@ A.$@ 24!
Key%ords! Technology diffusion@ mo8ile telecommunications
#
&' In"rodu"ion
The mo8ile phone industry in India is e,periencing an astonishing gro9th since the
introduction of mo8iles in the country. 7o8ile phone su8scri8er 8ase has increased from a
meager !.!4 million in #../'.$ to .! million in !!/'!$. 7ar*et oriented regulation that
encouraged competition in terms of 8oth the num8er of competitors and the 8readth of
ser;ices that they can offer has played an important role in stimulating the demand. India?s
B%nified Aicensing for Casic and <ellular 7o8ile Ser;icesD has ena8led operators to use the
most cost'efficient access technology. <ompetition among operators has resulted in rapid
fall in tariffs. Presently& telecommunication usage charges in India are among the lo9est
9hereas gro9th in su8scri8er 8ase is among the highest in the 9orld.
7o8ile is 8ecoming and 9ill continue to 8ecome the dominant means for accessing
communications in India primarily 8ecause deploying mo8ile net9or* is not only more cost'
efficient than deploying copper landline 8ut also mo8ile pro;ides greater fle,i8ility and
con;enience to its su8scri8ers than landline telephone. It costs only 5s. $!!! in added
infrastructure to ser;e a ne9 mo8ile su8scri8er 9hereas the corresponding costs for a ne9
landline connection are 5s. >!!! 1Eayaram& !!>3. Since 9ireless can 8e deployed more
rapidly& cash flo9 and return on in;estment is faster for the operators. Although corporate
sector and home data users 18asically& internet surfers3 are still going for landlines& the
general pu8lic are opting for mo8ile ser;ices& 9hich are no9 really cheap. It is unli*ely that
this trend 9ill change anytime in the near future.
An effecti;e management of mo8ile ser;ices re=uires an understanding of the factors
that underlie the e;olution of the mar*et. +actors such as mar*et potential and timing and
speed of adoption are of great importance for telecom operators for capacity planning.
%nderstanding the e;olution of mo8ile phone mar*et and its li*ely future trend is e=ually
important for policy ma*ers. The diffusion of mo8ile phones has 8een e,hausti;ely studied
in de;eloped countries 1see& for e,ample& <haddha and <hitgope*ar 1#.0#3& Fru8er 1#...3&
Carros and <adima 1!!!3& Fru8er and Ger8o;en 1!!#3& and Cotelho and Pinto 1!!>33.
Ho9e;er& there are fe9 such studies for de;eloping countries and none& to the 8est of
*no9ledge& for India. In this paper& 9e analy:e the diffusion of mo8ile phones in India to
inform the larger discussion of managing the communication ser;ices as 9ell as to assist

analysts concerned a8out assessing the impact of pu8lic policies in the e;olution of
telecommunication sector.
The paper is organi:ed into the follo9ing sections. Section deals 9ith the historical
data of mo8ile phone demand in India. Section 4 discusses the diffusion model 9hereas
Section > presents the model estimation and its analysis. Section / contains concluding
remar*s.

2' (obile phone demand in India! &))*-)6 "o 200*-06
+igure # presents historical data of mo8ile phone demand in India. 7o8ile phones& 9hich
9ere introduced a decade ago in #../'.$ in India& are 8ecoming the dominant means of
accessing communication. At the end of !!/'!$& there 9ere .! million mo8ile phones in
India in comparison to just /! million landlines. There has 8een /'fold increase in mo8ile
su8scri8er 8ase in a span of just fi;e years from !!!'!# to !!/'!$.
Although India?s mo8ile net9or* 9ith .! million connections ran*ed among the
largest in the 9orld& its mo8ile'density 1num8er of mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants3 is still
among the lo9est. Ho9e;er& gro9th in mo8ile'density has 8een phenomenal during the last
/ years or so. 7o8ile'density in the country has increased more than 4'fold from !.4/ in
!!!'!# to ".# in !!/'!$.
Deregulation& li8erali:ation& and competition ha;e played a *ey role in incredi8le
gro9th in mo8ile net9or*s in India. There has 8een a dramatic fall in mo8ile tariffs 9ith
increased competition. 7o8ile telephony prices for local calls ha;e dropped from 5s. #$ per
minute in !!! to 5s. #.! per minute in !!/. The pu8lic sector operators& Charat Sanchar
Higam Aimited 1CSHA3 and 7ahanagar Telephone Higam Atd. 17THA3& ha;e launched the
I2ne'India Plan? 9ith effect from 7arch #& !!$. This ne9 plan 9ill ena8le the customers of
CSHA and 7THA to call from one end of India to other at the cost of 5s. #.!! per minute&
any time of the day to any phone. Similar schemes are getting introduced 8y the pri;ate
mo8ile phone operators. At the same time& there has 8een significant increase in a;erage
income of the people. +or e,ample& per capita gross domestic product 1FDP3 in India has
increased at the rate of almost /J per year from the last fi;e years or so. The reduction in
4
tariffs and increase in a;erage income of the people is stimulating the demand for mo8ile
phones in India.
+igure &' ,ro%"h in mobile subsriber base in India
-' .iffusion model
The inno;ation diffusion literature re;eals that the spread of a successful inno;ation o;er
time typically follo9s a sigmoid or S'shaped cur;e 1see& Friliches 1#./03& 7ansfield 1#.$#3&
Artle and A;erous 1#.043& 7ahajan and Peterson 1#."/3& 5ogers 1#../3& Feros*i 1!!!3&
Cotelho and Pinto 1!!>33. This happens primarily 8ecause during an early phase of
diffusion only a fe9 mem8ers of the social system adopt the inno;ation 9hereas& o;er time&
due to net9or* consumption e,ternality& dissemination of information a8out technical and
economic characteristics& etc.& many people opt for inno;ation as the diffusion process
unfold. +inally& during the maturing phase& the rate of diffusion goes do9n 9hen diffusion
cur;e approaches a saturation le;el. In line 9ith these& 9e hypothesi:e that the gro9th in
mo8ile'density o;er time in India follo9s an S'shaped cur;e.
#
+or a time series li*e mo8ile'
#
7any empirical studies related 9ith diffusion of communication ser;ices emphasi:e that the factors such as
income distri8ution& the price and =uality of communication ser;ices& competition& technological de;elopment&
>
density& it is concei;a8le that the time series con;erge to a certain ma,imum as time passes
8y. There are a num8er of different functional forms that can descri8e S'shaped cur;es& for
e,ample& the logistic& Fompert:& logarithmic logistic& log reciprocal and cumulati;e normal
functions.

Among these& the logistic and Fompert: functions are the t9o most 9idely used
functional forms. Therefore& it is decided to use these t9o functions to model and forecast
the de;elopment of mo8ile'density in India. The logistic model can 8e 9ritten as(
t
t
t
time
Md ε
β γ
α
+
− +
=
3 3 1 e,p1 #
/&0
9here
t
Md
is mo8ile'density 1representing the num8er of mo8ile phones per #!!
inha8itants3 at period t&
t
time3 1
is ;alue assigned to time at period t& α is the saturation le;el
and εt is an error term at period t. Parameters γ and β determine the location and shape of the
cur;e& respecti;ely. All the parameters( α& β and γ are positi;e. The logistic function ranges
from a lo9er asymptote of ! to the upper 8ound α as time ranges from '∞ to -∞. The
logistic cur;e reaches its ma,imum gro9th rate αβK> 9hen
t
Md
L αK& that is& at half of the
saturation le;el of mo8ile'density. Thus& the logistic cur;e is rotationally symmetric a8out its
inflection point 1the point at 9hich ma,imum rate of diffusion ta*es place3.
Similarly& the Fompert: model can 8e 9ritten as(
t t t
time Md η β γ α + − − = 33 3 1 e,p1 e,p1
/20
9here all the ;aria8les and parameters ha;e their pre;ious meaning and ηt is an error term at
period t. Again& all the parameters( α& β and γ are positi;e. The Fompert: function also
ranges from a lo9er asymptote of ! to the upper 8ound α as time ranges from '∞ to -∞. In
this case& ma,imum gro9th rate αβKe is achie;ed 9hen
t
Md
L αKe& that is& 9hen mo8ile'
density reaches around 40J of its saturation le;el.
regulatory mechanism& etc.& play a significant role in e,plaining the o8ser;ed diffusion pattern 1see& for
e,ample& <haddha and <hitgope*ar 1#.0#3 and Fru8er 1#...33. Ho9e;er& this study mainly focuses on mo8ile
phone diffusion process pro;ided 8y measures of diffusion trends rather than identifying determinants of
mo8ile phone adoption.

An o;er;ie9 of such functional forms is gi;en in 7eade and Islam 1#.."3& see also Friliches 1#./03&
7ansfield 1#.$#3& <ho9 1#.$03& Tanner 1#.0"3& Ce9ley and +ie8ig 1#.""3& 7eade and Islam 1#../3& Dargay
and Fately 1#...3& Singh 1!!!3& +ranses Philip Hans 1!!3& Cotelho and Pinto 1!!>3& and 7ohamed and
Codger 1!!/3.
/
7odels /&0 and /20 can easily 8e estimated using non'linear least s=uare method.
These t9o models can 8e estimated once 8y assuming no restriction on the saturation le;el
and then 8y imposing restrictions on the saturation le;el. This should 8e done primarily
8ecause there is no guarantee that the final estimate of the saturation le;el& α& is close to the
glo8al optimum 1Heij <. et al.& !!>3.
The saturation le;el of mo8ile'density for a country is li*ely to depend on 9hether it
is an early adopter or a late adopter of telephones. De;eloped countries 9hich are early
adopters of telephones are e,pected to ha;e lesser reliance on mo8iles 9hereas de;eloping
countries 9hich are late adopters of telephones are e,pected to ha;e lesser reliance on main
line telephones. This is 8ecause de;eloped countries ha;e a 9ell esta8lished land line
net9or* and as a result face high s9itching cost if they mo;e from land line to mo8ile
net9or*. S9itching cost is minimal for the de;eloping countries and they can easily adopt
mo8ile phones in higher proportion. Analysis of mo8ile share in de;eloped and de;eloping
countries re;eals that the saturation le;el of mo8ile share in de;eloped countries could 8e
any9here 8et9een /!J and 0!J 9hereas the same 9ould 8e 8et9een "!J and .!J for the
de;eloping countries 1+igures and 43. Analysis of the le;el and gro9th in teledensity 1total
num8er of telephones per #!! inha8itants3 in de;eloped countries re;eals that the saturation
le;el of teledensity in de;eloping countries could 8e any9here 8et9een #! and #/!
telephones per #!! inha8itants. Therefore& the de;eloping countries 9hich are late adopters
of telephones are li*ely to e,perience the saturation le;el of mo8ile'density 8et9een #!! and
#! mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants. Since India is a late adopter of telephones& its
saturation le;el of mo8ile'density is li*ely to 8e 8et9een #!! and #! mo8ile phones per
#!! inha8itants. Ho9e;er& 8oth logistic and Fompert: models can 8e estimated for different
saturation le;els 1e.g.& 0!& "!& .!& #!!& ##! and #! mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants3 not
only to illustrate the different possi8le paths of mo8ile'density 8ut also to find out the most
appropriate saturation le;el. The mean a8solute percentage error 17APE3
4
for the last fe9
o8ser;ations 1say& last three o8ser;ations from !!4'!> to !!/'!$3 can 8e used to find out
the most appropriate model and saturation le;el.
4
The 7APE is commonly used in =uantitati;e forecasting methods 8ecause it produces a measure of relati;e
o;erall fit. The a8solute ;alues of all the percentage errors are summed up and the a;erage is computed.
$
+igure 2' Teledensi"y and peren"age share of mobile in sele"ed de1eloped oun"ries
+igure -' Teledensi"y and peren"age share of mobile in sele"ed de1eloping oun"ries
0
2' (odel es"ima"ion and analysis
The logistic model /&0 and Fompert: model /20 is estimated using the econometric soft9are
AI7DEP Gersion ".!. Coth the models ha;e 8een estimated for si, different saturation le;els
10!& "!& .!& #!!& ##!& and #! mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants3 along 9ith 9ithout
imposing any restriction on the saturation le;el. Annual data of mo8ile'density from #../'
.$ to !!/'!$ is used for the estimation of the models 1+igure >3.
>
The ;aria8le time is ta*en
as # for #../'.$& for #..$'.0& 4 for #..0'."&MM& and ## for !!/'!$.
Ta8le # reports the estimation results for 8oth the models. According to the 5

and
Adj. 5

;alues& models fit the data ;ery 9ell. All the estimated parameters ha;e the e,pected
sign and most are highly significant. Ho9e;er& 9hen no restriction on the saturation le;el is
placed& logistic model predicts the saturation le;el of around #. 9hereas corresponding
figure for the Fompert: model is around #". It is clear that the saturation le;el of mo8ile'
density in India can not 8e as lo9 as #. or as high as #". As e,plained in the pre;ious
section& final estimate of the saturation le;el need not 8e glo8ally optimal. Hence& models
9ith restriction on the saturation le;el should 8e e,amined.
>
Data on mo8ile su8scri8er 8ase and mo8ile'density is ta*en from Telecom 5egulatory Authority of India
1T5AI3 pu8lications 1999.trai.go;.in3 and telecom sector data8ase from 999.infraline.com.
"
To choose the 8est model and saturation le;el& 9e also compared the predicted ;alues
9ith the actual ;alue of mo8ile'density for the last three year period from !!4'!> to !!/'
!$. The 7APE for the last three o8ser;ations from !!4'!> to !!/'!$& reported in Ta8le #&
is in the range of /.# to /.>$ for the logistic models and >.0! to /.#! for the Fompert:
models. According to 8oth 5

and 7APE& the Fompert: models fit the data 8etter than the
logistic ones. Among the Fompert: models 9ith the restriction on the saturation le;el& the
one that is associated 9ith a saturation le;el of #! mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants has
the lo9est 7APE. Therefore& the Fompert: model 9ith the saturation le;el of #! mo8ile
phones per #!! inha8itants should 8e used to depict the diffusion of mo8ile phones in India.
+igure / presents the future mo8ile'density trend in India up to the year !#/'#$
using the estimated Fompert: models for the saturation le;els of #!!& ##!& and #! mo8ile
phones per #!! inha8itants. +urther analysis in this paper 9ill primarily 8e 8ased on the
estimated Fompert: model at saturation le;el of #! mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants as
sho9n in e=uation /-0.
3 1 #$4. . !
> . #$
#!
time
e
e Md


=
/-0
9here time is # for #../'.$& for #..$'.0& 4 for #..0'."&MM& and # for !#/'#$.
2n the 8asis of the estimated Fompert: model for the saturation le;el of #! mo8ile
phones per #!! inha8itants& projected path of mo8ile'density in India is presented in +igure
$. The analysis re;eals that the inflection point of the cur;e 9ill occur in the first half of
!#'#4. This implies that the rate of gro9th of mo8ile'density 9ill increase till the first half
of !#'#4 and start declining after9ards. 7o8ile'density trend in India sho9s that during
the year !#/'#$& there 9ill 8e 0# mo8ile phones for #!! people in the country 1+igure 03.
To project the mo8ile phone demand in India during the ne,t ten years& 9e re=uire
population estimates up to the year !#/'#$. Cased on the World Population Prospects: The
2004 Revision Population Database pu8lished 8y the %nited Hations Population Di;ision&
population of India is assumed to gro9 at the rate of #.>#J per annum from !!/'!$ to
!#!'## and #.0J per annum from !#!'## to !#/'#$. Cased on the estimates of mo8ile'
density and population of the country from !!/'!$ to !#/'#$& mo8ile phone demand has
8een projected 1see& +igure "3. It is projected that almost 4/! million ne9 mo8ile su8scri8ers
9ill 8e added 8et9een !!/'!$ and !#!'##. 7o8ile su8scri8er 8ase in India is e,pected to
.
increase from .! million in !!/'!$ to >44 million in !#!'##. At the end of !#/'#$& 9e
can e,pect around .!! million mo8ile su8scri8ers in the country.
Projected rapid gro9th in mo8ile su8scri8er 8ase in the India 9ill ha;e important
implications for re;enues collected 8y mo8ile operators and the go;ernment. 7o8ile
operators? re;enue depends on the num8er of mo8ile su8scri8ers and the a;erage re;enue
per mo8ile user. Although a;erage re;enue per mo8ile user in India is declining o;er the
years& it is e,pected to sta8ili:e 8y the year !#!'##. A;erage re;enue per user 1A5P%3 in
India has declined from 5s. ###4 per month in !!!'!# to 5s. 40/ per month in !!/'!$
1+igure .3. Ne can safely assume that this 9ill sta8ili:e at around 5s. 4!! per month 8y the
year !#!'##. The A5P% is not e,pected to decline further from !#!'## on9ards at least
up to !#/'#$ due to inflationary and income effect.
/
Cased on this assumption a8out the
A5P% and estimates of the num8er of mo8ile su8scri8ers& mo8ile operators? re;enues
during the year !#!'## and !#/'#$ ha;e 8een estimated and presented in Ta8le .
During the year !!/'!$& total mo8ile spending in India 9as around 5s. >!/ 8illion&
an amount 9hich 9as #.0J of the country?s FDP at factor cost at current prices.
$
India?s
FDP at factor cost at current prices in !!/'!$ is estimated to 8e around 5s. 4!!! 8illion&
#./J more than the pre;ious year. In fact& India?s FDP at current prices is increasing at the
rate of around #./J per year from the last fe9 years. Assuming that the gro9th in FDP at
current prices 9ill 8e at this rate up to the year !#/'#$& India?s FDP at current prices in
!#!'## and !#/'#$ 9ill 8e around 5s. /0$!! 8illion and 5s. #!4$"! 8illion& respecti;ely.
Nhen 9e assume a;erage mo8ile spending of 5s. 4!! per month per user during !#!'##
and !#/'#$& total mo8ile spending in India during !#!'## and !#/'#$ is estimated to 8e
5s. #//. 8illion and 5s. 44$ 8illion& respecti;ely. India?s mo8ile spending 9ill 8e
e=ui;alent to .0J of its FDP in !#!'## and 4.#J of its FDP in !#/'#$ 1Ta8le 3. This
suggests that the re;enues of mo8ile operators may pro;e significantly greater than the
amount that might ha;e 8een commonly assumed. The high gro9th in mo8ile su8scri8er
/
Although change in the A5P% in the coming years 9ill 8e determined 8y the factors such as competition in
the mar*et& technological progress& producti;ity of operators& inflation& income of the users& relati;e spending
for mo8ile ser;ices 8y the users& etc.& inflation and income effect is li*ely to 8e strong enough to offset the
do9n9ard trend in the A5P% due to technological progress& producti;ity gain& competition& etc. 2ne should
note that the relati;e spending for telecommunication ser;ices increases as income increases. Therefore& the
assumption that the A5P% 9ill 8e sta8le from !#!'## on9ards at least up to !#/'#$ seems to 8e plausi8le.
$
In this paper& Bmo8ile spendingD and Bmo8ile operators? re;enueD 9ill 8e used interchangea8ly.
#!
8ase and re;enues 9ill ha;e important implications for operators& infrastructure pro;iders&
handset suppliers& and ;endors. 7o8ile operators should 8e ready 9ith contingency plans to
deploy and operate infrastructure including customer care& 8illing& applications& etc.& faster
than that they might ha;e initially planned. Infrastructure pro;iders& handset suppliers& and
;endors should also 8e geared up to respond to such plans.
5apid increase in mo8ile su8scri8er 8ase and mo8ile spending 9ill ha;e e=ually
important implications for the go;ernment re;enue particularly in the form of regulatory
charges and ser;ice ta,. 5egulatory charges in India are in the form of license fee 1including
uni;ersal ser;ice o8ligation le;y3 and spectrum charges. Aicense fee ;aries from /J to #!J
9hereas spectrum charges ;ary from J to $J of the re;enue. 2n an a;erage& annual direct
regulatory cost faced 8y the operators in India is more than #4J& much higher than that in
the compara8le de;eloping countries. The corresponding figure for Pa*istan& Sri Aan*a&
7alaysia& and South Africa is >./J& !.4J& $./J& and /J& respecti;ely. It is remar*a8le that
despite the hea;y regulatory charges 1and other form of ta,es such as ser;ice ta,& sales ta,&
;alue added ta,& etc.3 in India ;is'O';is many other countries& tariffs for mo8ile calls in the
country are among the lo9est in the 9orld. Ho9e;er& there is a case to reduce the le;ies
particularly regulatory charges to further 8oost the sector. The sector paid more than 5s. /!
8illion to the go;ernment as regulatory charges during the year !!/'!$. E;en if 9e assume
a reduction in regulatory charges from #4J to say #!J in forthcoming years& contri8ution of
the mo8ile sector to the go;ernment?s re;enue 9ill 8e more than 5s. #/! 8illion in !#!'##
and 5s. 4!! 8illion in !#/'#$.
The mo8ile sector is already one of the largest contri8utors of ser;ice ta, in India.
During the year !!/'!$& this sector contri8uted around 5s. >! 8illion in the form of ser;ice
ta,. The rate of ser;ice ta, faced 8y the sector has increased from /J up to 7ay !!4 to "J
up to 7arch !!>& #!J up to 7arch !!$& and #J from April !!$ on9ards. If 9e include
the education cess of J 1of #J3& ta, 8urden on the sector 9ould 8e #.>J from the
financial year !!$'!0 on9ards. If this rate persists& go;ernment?s re;enue from the ser;ice
ta, on mo8ile phones 9ill increase from around 5s. >! 8illion in !!/'!$ to 5s. #.! 8illion
in !#!'## and 5s. >!! 8illion in !#/'#$.
##
Table &' 3arame"er es"ima"es of "he logis"i and ,omper"4 models /%i"h "-s"a"is"i in paren"heses0
(odel #s"ima"e
5o res"ri"ion on "he sa"ura"ion le1el
Aogistic /&0 α L #".. 14."3& β L !.04>0 1##.!3& γ L >44#. 1..3@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L /.>4
Fompert: /20 α L #0.. 1!.03& β L !.#4. 14.#3& γ L #/. 1".03@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L >.0!
Sa"ura"ion le1el, α 6 70
Aogistic /&0 β L !./.0! 1$..3& γ L /4$#.$ 1>.43@ 5

L !.../@ Adj. 5

L !...$@ 7APE L /.#
Fompert: /20 β L !.#./> 14.#3& γ L #".$ 1#$.!3@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L /.#!
Sa"ura"ion le1el, α 6 80
Aogistic /&0 β L !./.# 1$.$3& γ L /"./.$ 1>.43@ 5

L !.../@ Adj. 5

L !.../@ 7APE L /.
Fompert: /20 β L !.#"$/ 14.$3& γ L #0.. 1#0.!3@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L /.!>
Sa"ura"ion le1el, α 6 )0
Aogistic /&0 β L !./""4 1$.43& γ L $>>!.! 1>.43@ 5

L !.../@ Adj. 5

L !.../@ 7APE L /.4!
Fompert: /20 β L !.#0.4 144.!3& γ L #0.> 1#0..3@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L >...
Sa"ura"ion le1el, α 6 &00
Aogistic /&0 β L !./"/4 1$.#3& γ L $..#.> 1>.3@ 5

L !.../@ Adj. 5

L !.../@ 7APE L /.40
Fompert: /20 β L !.#044 144.3& γ L #0.! 1#".$3@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L >..>
Sa"ura"ion le1el, α 6 &&0
Aogistic /&0 β L !./"" 1$.!3& γ L 0/>0.$ 1>.3@ 5

L !.../@ Adj. 5

L !.../@ 7APE L /.>
Fompert: /20 β L !.#$"4 144.>3& γ L #$.$ 1#..43@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L >..#
Sa"ura"ion le1el, α 6 &20
Aogistic /&0 β L !./"!" 1/."3& γ L "#!0. 1>.3@ 5

L !.../@ Adj. 5

L !.../@ 7APE L /.>$
Fompert: /20 β L !.#$4. 144.$3& γ L #$.> 1#...3@ 5

L !...0@ Adj. 5

L !...0@ 7APE L >.""
+igure 2' (obile-densi"y in India be"%een &))*-)6 and 200*-06
#
+igure *' Assump"ions and proje"ions of mobile-densi"y in India

+igure 6' 3roje"ed pa"h of mobile-densi"y in India
#4
+igure 7' +u"ure mobile-densi"y in India
7
+igure 8' +u"ure mobile subsriber base in India
8
0
7o8ile'density figures ha;e 8een rounded off to one decimal place.
"
7o8ile su8scri8er 8ase figures ha;e 8een rounded off to :ero decimal place.
#>
+igure )' .eline in a1erage re1enue per mobile user per mon"h in India
Table 2' #s"ima"es of mobile opera"ors9 re1enue
#/
Ho. of mo8ile
su8scri8ers
1in million3
7o8ile A5P%
per year
15s.3
5e;enues from
mo8ile ser;ices
15s. in 8illion3
FDP
15s. in 8illion at factor
cost at current prices3
7o8ile re;enue as a
percentage of FDP
!!/'!$ .! >/!! >!/ 4!!! #.4
!#!'## >44 4$!! #//. /0$!! .0
!#/'#$ ".. 4$!! 44$ #!4$"! 4.#
*' :onluding remar;s
In this paper& the gro9th of the mo8ile phone and mo8ile'density in India has 8een analy:ed
using S'shaped gro9th cur;e models. The result sho9s that the Fompert: model ade=uately
descri8es the path of mo8ile phone diffusion in India. The analysis sho9s that the high
gro9th phase of the diffusion of mo8ile phones 9ill continue for another se;en years till
!#'#4. It is estimated that there 9ill 8e 0# mo8ile phones per #!! inha8itants in India at
the end of year !#/'#$. The num8er of mo8ile phones 9ill e,ceed the num8er of people in
the country 8y !'4. 2n an a;erage& mo8ile phone demand in India 9ill increase at the
rate of 4$..J per year 8et9een !!/'!$ and !#!'## and #/.0J per year 8et9een !#!'##
and !#/'#$. As a result& total mo8ile phone demand is projected to increase from .! million
in !!/'!$ to >44 million in !#!'## and nearly .!! million in !#/'#$. It is =uite li*ely
that the rapid e,pansion of mo8ile ser;ices 9ill pro;ide economic& logistic and strategic
challenges to the operators. As operators e,pand co;erage into ur8an& semi'ur8an& and rural
areas& they 9ill 8e confronted 9ith the daunting tas*s of de;eloping a country9ide
infrastructure and impro;ing and maintaining the =uality of ser;ice. The e,pected high
gro9th in mo8ile su8scri8er 8ase in India 9ill ha;e important implications for future plans
of operators& infrastructure pro;iders& handset suppliers& and ;endors. 7o8ile operators
should 8e ready 9ith contingency plans to deploy and operate infrastructure including
customer care& 8illing& applications& etc.& faster than that they might ha;e initially planned.
Infrastructure pro;iders& handset suppliers& and ;endors should 8e prepared to respond to
such plans.
5apid gro9th in mo8ile su8scri8er 8ase in the India 9ill ha;e important implications
for re;enues collected 8y the operators and the go;ernment. 5e;enue collected 8y the
mo8ile operators is projected to increase from 5s. >!/ 8illion 1#.4J of FDP3 in !!/'!$ to
5s. #//. 8illion 1.0J of FDP3 in !#!'## and 5s. 44$ 8illion 14.#J of FDP3 in !#/'#$.
#$
The go;ernment?s re;enue from regulatory charges 1license fee including uni;ersal ser;ice
o8ligation le;y and spectrum charges3 and ser;ice ta, 9ill increase su8stantially due to rapid
increase in operators? re;enue. The go;ernment?s re;enue from regulatory charges is
e,pected to increase from 5s. /! 8illion in !!/'!$ to more than 5s. #/! 8illion in !#!'##
and around 5s. 4!! 8illion in !#/'#$. The go;ernment?s re;enue from ser;ice ta, is
projected to increase from 5s. >! 8illion in !!/'!$ to 5s. #.! 8illion in !#!'## and 5s.
>!! 8illion in !#/'#$.
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#"

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