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Term Project

Summer Math 1040/ Intro to Statistics

7-11-2014

Barbara Freeman

Ashley Lingwall

Cami Einerson

Treasa Porter

1. Statistical Question

For this term project we are determining if there is a correlation between female body

weight and female body mass index (BMI). The data we collected from Mario Triola's

Elementary Statistics, 12

th

ed., published by Pearson, will define if a correlation exists such that

female weight(x) depends on female BMI (y). Data is in table 1 (page 2). We recognize that a

linear correlation between the two data sets will not determine causation. Our statistical question

is as follows: Is there a correlation between female body weight (x) and female BMI (y)?

2. Hypothesis

Using natural observation and experience, our group developed a unanimous hypothesis.

We reason that as female body weight increases, female BMI will increase accordingly, and

that a higher BMI will see a higher body weight. In the following pages you will find the raw

data sets, 5 number summaries, shape, outliers, mean, and standard deviation of data set female

body weight x and female BMI y. Also include are charts, graphs, linear correlation coefficient,

r, and the equation for the best fit line. Analysis of all of the collected data will either confirm or

deny the following hypothesis: As female body weight increases, female BMI will increase

accordingly.

TABLE 1. FEMALE WEIGHTS X and BMI OBSERVED Y

Weight kg BMI

59.3 22.13

74.5 27.2

77.7 29.21

97.9 35.4

71.7 26.79

60.9 20.85

60.5 25.68

43.8 18.71

47.9 19.43

64.8 24.91

75.6 26.6

81 33.11

72.8 28.65

67.3 24.96

58 20.31

54.1 20.85

59.6 26.21

48.9 17.62

75.3 26.36

60 23.7

67.3 24.22

77.3 33.68

49.7 20.37

58.4 26.41

82.2 29.02

79.5 31.21

80.3 29.18

56.4 25.89

64.3 23.5

62.3 24.8

74.6 27.2

92.6 31.3

65 22.44

3-4. Calculated Data – Data Summaries

Furthermore, the data was entered, a scatter plot was created to receive a visual of the

data points. After analyzing the scatter plot it was determined that there was sufficient reason to

continue with the analysis. Data set X presented a mean of 74.81 and a standard deviation of

20.70. Data set Y presented a mean of 28.44, standard deviation of 7.4. The data is shown on

Table 2 and 3 on following page: Columns.

According to the X and Y data, we found the shape to be skewed to the right from the histograms

of the quartiles. See Table 4.

When testing for outliers, based on our 1 variable summary, 7 of them were found to be outliers,

and were removed from further analysis. Table 5 is our Outliers.

The original formula was Y=2.86 + 0.342*X. After removing the outliers we used the formula

Y=0.3108 * 14.7727. R2=0.8948.

The raw data histogram table is also included on Table 6.

TABLES 2 & 3

WEIGHT SUMMARY (X)

Mean 74.8275

Standard Error 3.2711011

Median 72.25

Mode 67.3

Standard Deviation 20.68825986

Sample Variance 428.0040962

Kurtosis 0.13870212

Skewness 0.886657164

Range 82.8

Minimum 43.8

Maximum 126.6

Sum 2993.1

Count 40

BMI SUMMARY (Y)

Mean 28.44075

Standard Error 1.169106079

Median 26.505

Mode 27.2

Standard Deviation 7.394076072

Sample Variance 54.67236096

Kurtosis 0.196496055

Skewness 0.900222236

Range 29.62

Minimum 17.62

Maximum 47.24

Sum 1137.63

Count 40

TABLE 4. HISTOGRAM QUARTILES OF THE WEIGHTS (X) & BMI (Y)

WEIGHT (X) VALUES BMI (Y) VALUES

MIN: 43.8 MIN: 17.62

Q1: 58.85 Q1: 22.285

Q2: 72.25 Q2: 26.505

Q3: 76.45 Q3: 28.835

MAX: 126.6 MAX: 47.24

0

1

2

3

4

5

More 43.8

F

r

e

q

u

e

n

c

y

Bin

Weight Quartiles(x)

Frequency

0

1

2

3

4

32.51 17.62 More

F

r

e

q

u

e

n

c

y

Bin

BMI Quartiles (Y)

TABLE 5. OUTLIERS FOR WEIGHT (X) AND BMI (Y) VALUES

EQUATIONS FOR THE OUTLIERS FOR WEIGHT

(X)

Q3-Q1=IQR 17.6

1.5*IQR 26.4

Q1-(1.5*IQR) 32.45

Q3+(1.5*IQR) 102.85

EQUATIONS FOR THE OUTLIERS FOR BMI (Y)

Q3-Q1=IQR 6.55

1.5*IQR 9.825

Q1-(1.5*IQR) 15.735

Q3+(1.5*IQR) 35.385

TABLE 6. RAW DATA HISTOGRAMS OF WEIGHTS (X) & BMI (Y)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

71.4 85.2 57.6 More 99 112.8 43.8

FREQUENCY

WEIGHTS

Weight Values (X)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

F

r

e

q

u

e

n

c

y

BMI

BMI (Y)

Frequency

5. Calculate Linear Correlation (X vs Y)

When calculating the linear correlation coefficient r, we found a significant correlation

existed. Therefore we were able to proceed with the linear regression analysis (y=mx+b). The

best fit line equation we calculated is y= .3108x + 4.7727. See Table 7 below: Linear

Regression Line Plot.

TABLE 7. LINEAR REGRESSION COEFFECIENT PLOT

y = 0.3108x + 4.7727

R² = 0.8006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Series1

Linear (Series1)

6. Observed Y – Predicted Y

We found predicted Y by calculating the best fit line. See the raw data for predicted Y on

Table 8 shown on following page.

Residual Y vs X plot does not show a discrete pattern. Table 9 shown on following page shows

a random pattern and the spread does not increase or decrease. Therefore, the data is linearly

correlated.

7. Linear Model Validation

All three linear criteria were met in our data. The best fit line equation we calculated is

y= .3108x + 4.7727, R= .8948. This shows that we are correct in our hypothesis, when weight

increases the BMI increases. There is a clear linear correlation between weight and BMI.

TABLE 8. DATA SETS OF THE PREDICTED Y AND THE RESIDUAL Y

VALUES

Predicted Y Residual=Observed Y-Predicted Y X

Residual=Observed Y-Predicted

Y

Y=2.86+0.342*x Weight

23.1406 -1.0106 59.3 -1.0106

28.339 -1.139 74.5 -1.139

29.4334 -0.2234 77.7 -0.2234

36.3418 -0.9418 97.9 -0.9418

27.3814 -0.5914 71.7 -0.5914

23.6878 -2.8378 60.9 -2.8378

23.551 2.129 60.5 2.129

17.8396 0.8704 43.8 0.8704

19.2418 0.1882 47.9 0.1882

25.0216 -0.1116 64.8 -0.1116

28.7152 -2.1152 75.6 -2.1152

30.562 2.548 81 2.548

27.7576 0.8924 72.8 0.8924

25.8766 -0.9166 67.3 -0.9166

22.696 -2.386 58 -2.386

21.3622 -0.5122 54.1 -0.5122

23.2432 2.9668 59.6 2.9668

19.5838 -1.9638 48.9 -1.9638

28.6126 -2.2526 75.3 -2.2526

23.38 0.32 60 0.32

25.8766 -1.6566 67.3 -1.6566

29.2966 4.3834 77.3 4.3834

19.8574 0.5126 49.7 0.5126

22.8328 3.5772 58.4 3.5772

30.9724 -1.9524 82.2 -1.9524

30.049 1.161 79.5 1.161

30.3226 -1.1426 80.3 -1.1426

22.1488 3.7412 56.4 3.7412

24.8506 -1.3506 64.3 -1.3506

24.1666 0.6334 62.3 0.6334

28.3732 -1.1732 74.6 -1.1732

34.5292 -3.2292 92.6 -3.2292

25.09 -2.65 65 -2.65

TABLE 9. SCATTER PLOT OF THE RESIDUAL Y DATA

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 10 20 30 40

Residual=Observed Y-Predicted Y

Residual=Observed Y-

Predicted Y

8. Make A Prediction

The female weights will correlate with BMI using the formula Y= 0.3108x + 4.7727.

The following are some predictions:

.3108(95) + 4.7727 = 34.2987

.3108(60) + 4.7727 = 23.4207

.3108(75) + 4.7727 = 28.0827

.3108(50) + 4.7727 = 20.3127

.3108(30) + 4.7727 = 14.0967

9. Afterthought

In conclusion, our initial hypothesis is proven correct. There is a strong correlation

between female weight and their BMI. We have shown with the collected research and statistical

analysis that as a female individuals weight increases, their BMI increases too. When looking at

the information provided, there was sufficient statistical data to accurately show our evidence

and to ultimately exhibit our outcome. When considering our sample technique, we did obtain

data through convenience because of the absence of time and availability. Some important

questions would be, does this sampling technique accurately help us define information, or

would another sampling technique be more useful? Could the information be more impactful to

the audience with more time? Having said that, the data outcome is being accurately represented

and this conclusion makes sense because it correlates with evident health related studies that

involve female health biology.

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