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**In a random sample of the length (in mins) of songs on CDs produced by hard rock bands, mean is
**

3.35 and s.d is 0.5.

a) Find the approximate proportion of observations between 2.35 and 4.35

b) Approximately what proportion of songs last more than 5 mins.

Q2.

Better Bedding in East Hartford, Connecticut, claims 99.4% of all mattress deliveries are on time.

Suppose two mattress deliveries are selected at random.

a) What is the probability both mattresses will be delivered on time

b) What is the probability both mattresses will be delivered late

c) What is the probability exactly one mattress will be delivered on time

Q3.

Suppose 20% of clerical staff in office smoke cigarettes. Research shows that 60% of smokers and

15% of non-smokers suffer a breathing illness by age 65.

a) Do these percentages indicate that smoking and breathing illness are independent?

b) What's the probability that a randomly selected 65 year old employee who has breathing

illness smokes.

Q4.

The probability a randomly selected family belongs to the AAA automobile club is 0.25. If a family

belongs to AAA, the probability they have more than one car is 0.45. Suppose a family is randomly

selected. What is the probability they have more than one car and belong to AAA?

Q5.

In a manufacturing plant, there are three machines producing 50%, 30% and 20% respectively of the

total output. Out of the items produced by 1

st

machine, 4% are defective. Corresponding

percentages for 2

nd

and 3

rd

machines are 5 and 3 respectively. An item is drawn at random from the

production line.

a) Find the probability that this item is defective.

b) Given that this item defective, what is the conditional probability that it has been produced by

machine 2?

Q6.

You are trying to assess the effectiveness of an advertising campaign for a product which is bought

by 20% of people. A survey shows that 40% of people recognize your advertisement while 12% of

people both recognize your advertisement and buy your product.

a) Does seeing the advertisement increase the probability of purchasing?

b) For another advertisement, 30% of people recognize it while 10% both recognize it and buy the

product.

c) Which of the two ads seems to be the most effective?

Q7.

A manufacturing process produces computer chips in large numbers. Over the long-run the fraction

of bad chips produced by the process is around 20%. Thorough testing is expensive but there is a

cheap test. All good chips pass the cheap test but so do 10% of bad chips.

a) Given that a chip passes the test what is the probability that it is a good chip?

b) If a company sold all chips that passed the test what fraction of those they sold would be bad?

Q8.

Hartnett car company has 12% market share. They are trying to assess the value of their long-

standing advertising campaign. A standard way of doing this is to ask purchasers whether they recall

the advertising campaign at the point of purchase. It turns out that 75% can recall the main details

of the campaign. They also have general market research data which indicates that amongst those

people who do not own a Hartnett, only 21% recall the major details of the campaign. On average,

Hartnett makes a profit of k$12,200 on each customer.

a) What proportion of people overall recall the major details of the campaign?

b) Given that someone recalls the major details of the campaign, what is the probability that

they will buy a Hartnett?

c) On average, Hartnett makes a profit of k$12,200 on 12% of the car buying population so

their average profit per member of this target population is 12% of k$12,200 which is

$1,460. Given that someone recalls the major details of the campaign, what is the average

profit per member of the target population?

Q9.

You are considering launching a new product – male aftershave fragrance. It is very difficult for new

products in this market. On the basis of your experience, expert judgment and (to some extent)

historic records, you guestimate that there is around 10% chance that your product will be a

success. It is more likely to be a flop. To try and reduce your risk, you are considering retaining a

marketing company to do some marketing based on product testing and focus groups.The company

claims following accuracy rates:

99% of ultimately successful products test well and return an overall positive recommendation. On

the other hand, 89% of the products that ultimately flop test poorly and give an overall negative

recommendation.

a) How much does company’s service help you to reduce the uncertainty in product’s outcome?

Does it actually reduce uncertainty at all?

b) Q2. How much would the marketing company’s service be worth to you? Let’s say that a success

makes you INR 1,000,000 and a flop loses you INR 100,00

Q10.

A game is being played between two players A and B according to following rule: Each of them rolls

a die with faces 1,2,..,6. If the total score is a perfect square, then A receives as many rupees as total

score, otherwise B receives from A as many rupees as total score.

a) Find the probability distribution of the gain of A

b) Find the mean gain for A

Q11.

A red and a black die are thrown, and X denote the sum of the two dice. What is X’s expected

value, variance and standard deviation? What fraction of probability mass lies within one

standard deviation of the expected value?

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