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2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Chapter 2
Electrical Load Forecasting
Chapter content:
(1.0)System planning optimality
(2.0)Types of Patterns
(3.0)Some definitions
(4.0)Forecasting Methodology
(5.0)Method of Calculation
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(6.0)Practical Example of ELF
Chapter 2
Electrical Load Forecasting
Power distribution system planning is essential to assure that the
growing demand of electricity can be satisfied by distribution system
additions which are both technically adequate and reasonably
economical the application of some type of systematic approach to
generation and transmission system planning.
In the future more than the past, electric utilities will need a fast and
economical planning tool to evaluate the consequences of different
proposed alternatives and impact on the test of the system to provide
the necessary economical, reliable and safe electric energy to
consumers.
The objective of distribution system planning is to assure that the
growing demand for electricity, in terms of increasing growth rates and
high load densities can be satisfied in any optimum way.
Technically adequate implies the system is:
1 Reliable (voltage and service continuity)
2 Supply satisfies demand.
3 Equipment is not overloaded.
Total system cost is minimum, where:
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Total cost = fixed cost + variable cost
Several factors affecting power distribution
(1.0) System planning optimality:
(1.1) Load forecasting:
The load growth of the geographical area served by a utility company
is the most important factor influencing the expansion of distribution
system. Therefore, forecasting of load increases and system reaction
to these increases is essential to the planning process. There are two
common time scales of importance to load forecasting longrange, with
time horizon of up to five years distant. Ideally, these forecasts would
predict future load in detail, extending even to the individual customer
level.
Frequently, there is a time lag between awareness of an impending
event, or need, and the occurrence of that event. This time lag is the
main reason for planning and forecasting. If the time lag is long, and
the outcome of the final event is conditional upon identifiable factors,
planning can play an important role. In such situations, forecasting is
needed to determine when a need will arise so that the appropriate
actions can be taken.
(1.1.1)Definition of ELF:
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
T
i
m
e
Load K
n
o
w
n
H
i
s
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
F
u
t
u
r
e
H
o
r
i
z
o
n
y
e
a
r
?
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Electric Load Forecast is perform analysis of post or/and present data,
identifying trends and patterns that exist in the data, that are then
used to project load into the future.
Fig. 2.1
Load forecasts can be divided into three categories: shortterm
forecasts which are usually from one hour to one week, medium
forecasts which are usually from a week to a year, and longterm
forecasts which are longer than a year. The forecasts for different time
horizons are important for different operations within a utility
company. The natures of these forecasts are different as well. For
example, for a particular region, it is possible to predict a next day
load with an accuracy of approximately 13%. However, it is impossible
to predict the next year peak load with the similar accuracy since
accurate longterm forecasts are not available. For the next year peak
forecast, it is possible to provide the probability distribution of the load
based on historical weather observations. It is also possible, according
to the industry practice, to predict the socalled weather normalized
load, which would take place for average annual peak weather
conditions or worse than average peak weather conditions for a given
area.
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Load forecasting has always been important for planning and
operational decision conducted by utility companies. However, with the
deregulation of the energy industries, load forecasting is even more
important. With supply and demand fluctuating with the changes of
weather conditions and energy prices increasing by a factor of ten or
more during peak situations, load forecasting is vitally important for
utilities. Shortterm load forecasting can help to estimate load
demands and to make decisions that can prevent overloading. Timely
implementations of such decisions lead to the improvement of network
reliability and to the reduction occurrences of equipment failures and
blackouts. Load forecasting is also important for contract evaluations
and evaluations of various sophisticated financial products on energy
pricing offered by the market. In the deregulated economy, decisions
on capital expenditures based on longterm forecasting are also more
important than in a nonderegulated economy when rate increases
could be justified by capital expenditure projects.
Over the last few decades a number of forecasting methods have been
introduced. Most of these methods use statistical techniques
sometimes combined with artificial intelligence algorithms such as
neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. Two of the methods,
socalled enduse and econometric approach are broadly used for
medium and longterm forecasting. A variety of methods, that include
the socalled similar day approach, various regression models, time
series, neural networks, statistical learning algorithms, fuzzy logic, and
expert systems, have been developed for shortterm forecasting.
A large variety of mathematical methods and ideas have been used for
load forecasting. The development and improvements of appropriate
mathematical tools will lead to the development of more accurate load
forecasting techniques.
In this chapter, we are concerned to talk mainly about the longterm
forecast using various regression techniques, and choosing which of
them will be more accurate, to use it at the end to make calculations
for an electrical load forecast for the next 10 years depending on an
available historical data of the loads in the previous years.
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(1.1.2)Factors Affecting ELF:
Several factors affect ELF. Among them we mention:
1. Land use:
(Residential, industrial, commercial, agriculture . . . etc.). Different
types of use affect the capacity of the substation, i.e. residential loads
is different from industrial loads.
2. Population growth:
As the population increases more loads are needed.
3. Historical Data:
Historical data plays an important role in forecasting since they can tell
how the load will behave in the future.
4. Load Densities (KVA/Km
2
):
Load density must be put into account during load forecasting, we
must consider the range of enmities as it differs for different types of
loads. Common figures for load densities are 1000 KVA/Km
2
for
agricultural areas; 3000 KVA/Km
2
for residential areas; 5000 KVA/Km
2
for city center and 10,000 KVA/Km
2
for industrial areas.
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(1.2)Substation expansion:
Presents some of the factors affecting the substation expansion the
planner makes a decision based on tangible or intangible information.
For example, the forecasted load, load density and load growth may
require a substation expansion or a new substation construction. In the
system expansion plan the present system configuration, capacity and
the forecasted loads can play major roles.
Fig. 2.2: Factor of substation expansion
(1.3)Substation site selection:
The factors that affect substation site selection. The distance from
the load centers and from the existing sub transmission lines as well
as other limitation, such as availability of land its cost and land use
regulations, are important.
Fig. 2.3: Factors affecting substation site
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(1.4) Other factors:
Once the load assignments to the substation are determined then
the remaining factors affecting primary voltage selection, feeder
route selection, number of feeders, conductor size selection and
total cost, need to be considered.
(2.0) Types of Patterns :
By the word pattern we mean how the load changes with time. Four
basic types of patterns often exist in data series:
(2.1) Horizontal pattern:
This exists when there is no trend in a data series. This can happen
when there is no more expected load increase in the area. Such
pattern is generally referred to as stationary. Example of this load
pattern is the load pattern of Abbasia district in Cairo where there is
not a single meter to build more buildings on. Figure below shows
changing of load in the yaxis with time in the xaxis.
Fig. 2.4: Horizontal pattern
( 2 .2 ) Trend pattern:
This exists when there is an increase or decrease in the value of
electric load consumption. Such pattern is generally referred to as non
stationary.
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Fig. 2.5: Trend pattern
(2. 3) Seasonal pattern:
This exists when data series fluctuates according to some seasonal
factors.
Fig. 2.6: Seasonal pattern
(2. 4) Cyclical pattern:
This exists when data series fluctuates and doesn't repeat itself at
constant time interval. One of the factors that may cause the pattern
to be so is an economical crisis in the state which may cause to stop
some industries in the state causing a dip in the load curve.
Fig. 2.7: Cyclical pattern
(3.0)Some definitions:
Load Duration Curve:
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Line charts showing the percentage of time the hourly load was at or
near peak values. The Yaxis is percentage of peak; the Xaxis is
percentage of time.
Average Annual Energy:
Average kWh consumption of energy in specific time duration.
NonCoincident Peak Demand:
Average peak hourly demand regardless of the time of occurrence .
Maximum Demand:
The maximum diversified demand of the energy consumed for specific
time periods.
Load Factor (LF):
Ratio of average energy for the year (annual kWh/8760) to peak
demand .
Coincident Factor (CF):
Ratio of maximum demand to the noncoincident peak. A related
measure is the diversity factor, which is the reciprocal of the
coincidence factor.
Site NonCoincident Peak Demand:
Average peak hour demand regardless of the time of occurrence .
Group Diversified Peak Demand:
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
The maximum, simultaneous, hourly demand of all sites for that
month; it is determined by averaging demand of the sites hour by hour
and then finding the maximum demand for the group.
( 4 .0) Forecasting Methodology:
Forecasting is simply a systematic procedure for quantitatively
defining future loads. Depending on the time period of interest, a
specific forecasting procedure may be classified as a short term,
intermediate or long term technique.
Because system planning is our basic concern and because planning
for the flow generation, transmission and distribution facilities must
begin 4  10 year in advance of the actual in service data, we shall be
concerned with the methodology of intermediaterange forecasting.
For simplicity, the word “Forecast” will usually imply an intermediate
range forecast.
Forecasting techniques may be divided into 3 broad classes.
Techniques may be used on extrapolation or correlation or a
combination of both. Techniques may be further classified as
deterministic, probabilistic, or stochastic.
(4 .1) Extrapolation :
Extrapolation techniques involve fitting trend curves to basic historical
data adjusted to
reflect the growth. It produces reasonable results in many cases.
Such a technique is to be classified as a deterministic extrapolation,
since no attempt is made to account for random errors in the data or in
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
the analytical model. Some standard analytical functions are used in
trend curves fitting, including:
1. Straight line
Y
∧
= a + b x
2. Parabola
Y
∧
= a + b x + cx
2
The most common curve  fitting technique for finding coefficients of
function in a given forecast is the method of least squares as will be
discussed later
(4 .2) Correlation :
Correlation techniques are used to relate system loads to various
demographic and economic factors. This approach has an advantage
of forcing the forecast to understand clearly the interrelationship
between load growth patterns and other measurable factors. The most
obvious disadvantage, however results from the need to forecast
demographic and economic factors, which can be more difficult than
forecasting system load. Typically, these factors may be population,
employment, building permits saturation and business indicators.
(5 .0) Method of Calculation :
(5 .1) Simple Regression :
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Regression in general is a relationship between the variable we want to
forecast (dependant) and another variable (independent).
Or, we can say
Y = f (x)
If the independent variable is time, then we call it simple timeseries
regression, and simple refers to a single independent variable.
In a simple regression the relationship is assumed linear, i.e.
Ŷ = a + b t
The principle of regression theory is that, any function Ŷ = f (x) can be
fitted to a set of data points so as to minimize the sum of errors
squared at each data point and this type of fitting is called least square
fit in which the objective is to:
∑
·
· −
n
i
i i
x f Y
1
2
)] ( [
Minimum
Where n is the number of data points
(5 .2) Linear Regression :
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
∑ ∑ ∑
∑
∑
∑
· · ·
·
·
·
+ ·
· − + − ·
∂
∂
+ − ·
− ·
+ ·
·
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
bt a Y
bt a Y
a
e
bt a Y e
Y Y e
bt a Y
x f Y
0 0 0
0
2
2
0
2
0
2
^
2
^
0 ) 1 )]( ( [ 2
)] ( [
) (
) (
,
`
.

·
,
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.

⋅
,
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.

+ ·
· − + − ·
∂
∂
+ ·
∑
∑
∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑
·
·
· ·
·
· · ·
·
· ·
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
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n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
tY
Y
b
a
t t
t n
bt at tY
bt a Y
b
e
bt na Y
Or
0
0
0
2
0
0
0 0 0
2
0
2
0 0
0 ) 1 )]( ( [ 2
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(5 .3) Quadratic Regression :
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
∑
∑
∑
· · · ·
·
· · · ·
·
· · ·
· ·
·
·
·
+ + ·
· − + + − ·
∂
∂
+ + ·
· − + + − ·
∂
∂
+ + ·
+ + ·
· − + + − ·
∂
∂
+ + − ·
− ·
+ + ·
·
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
t c t b t a Y t
t ct bt a Y
c
e
t c t b t a tY
t ct bt a Y
b
e
t c t b na Y
ct bt a Y
ct bt a Y
a
e
ct bt a Y e
Y Y e
ct bt a Y
x f Y
0 0 0 0
4 3 2 2
0
2 2
2
0 0 0
3
0
2
0
2
2
0 0 0
2
0 0
2
0
2
2
0
2 2 2
0
2
^
2
2
^
0 ) )]( ( [ 2
0 ) )]( ( [ 2
0 ) 1 )]( ( [ 2
)] ( [
) (
) (
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
,
`
.

·
,
`
.

⋅
,
`
.

∑
∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
·
·
·
· · ·
· · ·
· ·
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
i
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o i
Y t
tY
Y
c
b
a
t t t
t t t
t t n
0
2
0
0
0
4
0
3
0
2
0
3
0
2
0
0
2
(5 .4) Polynomial Regression :
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
∑
∑
∑
· · · · ·
·
· · · · ·
·
· · · · ·
·
· · · ·
· ·
·
·
·
+ + + ·
− + + + − ·
∂
∂
+ + + ·
· − + + + − ·
∂
∂
+ + + ·
· − + + + − ·
∂
∂
+ + + ·
+ + + ·
· − + + + − ·
∂
∂
+ + + − ·
− ·
+ + + ·
·
n
i
n
i
n
i
n
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n
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n
i
n
i
t d t c t b t a Y t
t dt ct bt a Y
d
e
t d t c t b t a Y t
t dt ct bt a Y
c
e
t d t c t b t a tY
t dt ct bt a Y
b
e
t d t c t b na Y
dt ct bt a Y
dt ct bt a Y
a
e
dt ct bt a Y e
Y Y e
dt ct bt a Y
x f Y
0 0
6
0
5
0
4
0
3 3
0
3 3 2
2
0 0 0 0
5
0
4 3 2 2
0
2 3 2
2
0 0 0
4
0
3
0
2
0
3 2
2
0
3
0 0 0
2
0 0
3 2
0
3 2
2
0
2 3 2 2
0
2
^
2
3 2
^
) )]( ( [ 2
0 ) )]( ( [ 2
0 ) )]( ( [ 2
0 ) 1 )]( ( [ 2
)] ( [
) (
) (
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
,
`
.

·
,
`
.

⋅
,
`
.

∑
∑
∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
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·
·
·
·
· · · ·
· · · ·
· · · ·
· · ·
n
i
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Y t
Y t
tY
Y
d
c
b
a
t t t t
t t t t
t t t t
t t t n
0
3
0
2
0
0
0
6
0
5
0
4
0
3
0
5
0
4
0
3
0
2
0
4
0
3
0
2
0
0
3
0
2
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(6.0)Practical Example of ELF:
The load forecasting of a new area is to be considered. This area
consists of several zones, each of a known area:
(1)Agriculture.
(2) Residential.
(3) City center.
(4) Light industrial.
(5) Heavy industrial.
The area under study is given below:
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Fig. 2.8:Area under study
(6.1) Agriculture region :
year t y t
2
t
3
t
4
y * t y *t
2
1999 1 66.67 1 1 1 66.67 66.67
2000 2 66.67 4 8 16 133.34 266.68
2001 3 72.22 9 27 81 216.66 649.98
2002 4 72.22 16 64 256 288.88 1155.52
2003 5 77.78 25 125 625 388.9 1944.5
2004 6 83.33 36 216 1296 499.98 2999.88
2005 7 86.67 49 343 2401 606.69 4246.83
2006 8 88.89 64 512 4096 711.12 5688.96
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
2007 9 92.22 81 729 6561 829.98 7469.82
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4
Σ(y *
t)
Σ(y *
t
2
)
45
706.6
7 285 2025 15333
3742.
22
24488.
84
Table 2.1
(6.1.1) linear model:
Where a
o
& a
1
are computed constants as :
t a a y * ˆ
1 0
+ ·
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑ ∑
∑
) * (
*
1
0
2
t y
y
a
a
t t
t n
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Therefore: a
o
=61.11305556, a
1
=3.481166667
year t y y^ e e2
1999 1 66.67
64.5942
2
2.07577
8
4.30885
3
2000 2 66.67
68.0753
9

1.40539
1.97511
8
2001 3 72.22
71.5565
6
0.66344
4
0.44015
9
2002 4 72.22
75.0377
2

2.81772
7.93955
9
2003 5 77.78
78.5188
9

0.73889
0.54595
7
2004 6 83.33
82.0000
6
1.32994
4
1.76875
2
2005 7 86.67
85.4812
2
1.18877
8
1.41319
3
2006 8 88.89
88.9623
9

0.07239 0.00524
2007 9 92.22
92.4435
6

0.22356
0.04997
7
Σe
2
18.4468
1
Table 2.2
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(6.1.2)Quadratic model:
Where
Therefore
a
o
=62.43785714 , a
1
=2.758547619 , a
2
=0.07226190476
year t y y^ e e
2
1999 1 66.67
65.2686
7
1.40133
3
1.96373
5
2000 2 66.67 68.244 1.574
2.47747
6
2001 3 72.22
71.3638
6
0.85614
3
0.73298
1
2002 4 72.22
74.6282
4

2.40824
5.79961
1
2003 5 77.78
78.0371
4

0.25714
0.06612
2
2
2 1 0
* * ˆ t a t a a y + + ·
]
]
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
) * (
) * ( *
2
2
1
0
4 3 2
3 2
2
t y
t y
y
a
a
a
t t t
t t t
t t n
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
2004 6 83.33
81.5905
7
1.73942
9
3.02561
2
2005 7 86.67
85.2885
2
1.38147
6
1.90847
6
2006 8 88.89 89.131 0.241
0.05808
1
2007 9 92.22 93.118 0.898
0.80640
4
Σe
2
16.8385
Table 2.3
From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model, therefore:
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Table 2.4
For 2017: Load
(MVA) =140.368
MVA
(6.2) Residenti
al region:
year t y t
2
t
3
t
4
y * t y *t
2
1999 1 118 1 1 1
118 118
2000 2 120 4 8 16
240 480
2001 3 125 9 27 81
375 1125
2002 4 125 16 64 256
500 2000
2003 5 130 25 125 625
650 3250
2004 6 140 36 216 1296
840 5040
2005 7 150 49 343 2401
1050 7350
2006 8 160 64 512 4096
1280 10240
2007 9 170 81 729 6561
1530 13770
Σt
Σy Σt
2
Σt
3
Σt
4
Σ(y *
t)
Σ(y *
t
2
)
45 1238 285 2025 15333 6583 43373
Table 2.5
year t
1999 1
65.268
67
2000 2 68.244
2001 3
71.363
86
2002 4
74.628
24
2003 5
78.037
14
2004 6
81.590
57
2005 7
85.288
52
2006 8 89.131
2007 9 93.118
2008 10
97.249
52
2009 11
101.52
56
2010 12
105.94
61
2011 13
110.51
12
2012 14
115.22
09
2013 15
120.07
5
2014 16
125.07
37
yˆ
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(6.2.1) linear model:
Where a
o
& a
1
are computed constants as :
Therefore: a
o
=104.80555556 , a
1
=6.55
year t y y^ e e2
1999 1 118
111.35
56
6.6444
44
44.148
64
2000 2 120 117.90 2.0944 4.3866
t a a y * ˆ
1 0
+ ·
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑ ∑
∑
) * (
*
1
0
2
t y
y
a
a
t t
t n
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
56 44 97
2001 3 125
124.45
56
0.5444
44
0.2964
2
2002 4 125
131.00
56

6.0055
6
36.066
7
2003 5 130
137.55
56

7.5555
6
57.086
42
2004 6 140
144.10
56

4.1055
6
16.855
59
2005 7 150
150.65
56

0.6555
6
0.4297
53
2006 8 160
157.20
56
2.7944
44
7.8089
2
2007 9 170
163.75
56
6.2444
44
38.993
09
Σe2
206.07
22
Table 2.6
(6.2.2)Quadratic model:
2
2 1 0
* * ˆ t a t a a y + + ·
]
]
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
) * (
) * ( *
2
2
1
0
4 3 2
3 2
2
t y
t y
y
a
a
a
t t t
t t t
t t n
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Where
Therefore a
o
=119.0714286 , a
1
= 1.231385281 , a
2
=0.7781385281
year t y y^ e e
2
1999 1 118
118.618
2

0.61818
0.38214
9
2000 2 120
119.721
2
0.27878
8
0.07772
3
2001 3 125
122.380
5 2.61948
6.86167
8
2002 4 125
126.596
1 1.5961
2.54754
8
2003 5 130 132.368

2.36797 5.60726
2004 6 140
139.696
1
0.30389
6
0.09235
3
2005 7 150
148.580
5 1.41948
2.01492
5
2006 8 160
159.021
2
0.97878
8
0.95802
6
2007 9 170
171.018
2

1.01818
1.03669
4
Σe
2
19.5783
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
5
Table 2.7
From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model, therefore :
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Table 2.8
year t y
^
1999 1
118.618
2
2000 2
119.721
2
2001 3
122.380
5
2002 4
126.596
1
2003 5 132.368
2004 6
139.696
1
2005 7
148.580
5
2006 8
159.021
2
2007 9
171.018
2
2008 10
184.571
4
2009 11 199.681
2010 12
216.346
8
2011 13
234.568
8
2012 14
254.347
2
2013 15
275.681
8
2014 16
298.572
7
323.019
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
For 2017: Load (MVA) =376.5831 MVA
( 6.3 ) City Center :
year t y t
2
t
3
t
4
y * t y *t
2
1999 1
466.6
7 1 1 1 466.67 466.67
2000 2
488.8
9 4 8 16 977.78 1955.56
2001 3
555.5
6 9 27 81 1666.68 5000.04
2002 4 555 16 64 256 2220 8880
2003 5
588.8
9 25 125 625 2944.45
14722.2
5
2004 6
622.2
2 36 216 1296 3733.32
22399.9
2
2005 7 661.1 49 343 2401 4627.7 32393.9
2006 8 700 64 512 4096 5600 44800
2007 9
744.4
4 81 729 6561 6699.96
60299.6
4
Σt Σy Σt
2
Σt
3
Σt
4
Σ(y * t)
Σ(y *
t
2
)
45
5382.7
7 285 2025 15333
28936.5
6 190918
Table 2.9
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(6.3.1) linear model:
Where a
o
& a
1
are computed constants as :
Therefore: a
o
= 429.5263889, a
1
= 33.71183333
year t y y^ e e
2
1999 1
466.6
7
463.23
6
3.43427
8
11.7942
6
t a a y * ˆ
1 0
+ ·
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑ ∑
∑
) * (
*
1
0
2
t y
y
a
a
t t
t n
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
2000 2
488.8
9
496.94
8

8.05756 64.9242
2001 3
555.5
6
530.65
9
24.9006
1
620.040
4
2002 4 555
564.37
1

9.37122
87.8198
1
2003 5
588.8
9
598.08
3

9.19306
84.5122
7
2004 6
622.2
2
631.79
5

9.57489 91.6785
2005 7 661.1
665.50
7

4.40672 19.4192
2006 8 700
699.21
9
0.78144
4
0.61065
5
2007 9
744.4
4 732.93
11.5096
1
132.471
1
Σe
2
1113.27
Table 2.10
(6.3.2)Quadratic model:
Where
2
2 1 0
* * ˆ t a t a a y + + ·
]
]
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
) * (
) * ( *
2
2
1
0
4 3 2
3 2
2
t y
t y
y
a
a
a
t t t
t t t
t t n
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Therefore a
o
=443.6035714, a
1
= 26.03337013, a
2
=0.7678453203
year t y y^ e e
2
1999 1
466.6
7
470.40
5

3.73479
13.9486
4
2000 2
488.8
9
498.74
2 9.8517
97.0559
3
2001 3
555.5
6
528.61
4 26.9457
726.070
8
2002 4 555
560.02
3

5.02259
25.2264
4
2003 5
588.8
9
592.96
7

4.07658 16.6185
2004 6
622.2
2
627.44
6

5.22626
27.3137
9
2005 7 661.1
663.46
2

2.36163
5.57730
6
2006 8 700
701.01
3 1.0127
1.02555
5
2007 9
744.4
4
740.09
9
4.34054
5
18.8403
4
Σe
2
931.677
3
Table 2.11
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model,
therefore
year t y^
1999 1
470.404
8
2000 2
498.741
7
2001 3
528.614
3
2002 4
560.022
6
2003 5
592.966
6
2004 6
627.446
3
2005 7
663.461
6
2006 8
701.012
7
2007 9
740.099
5
2008 10
780.721
9
2009 11 822.88
2010 12
866.573
9
2011 13
911.803
4
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
2012 14
958.568
6
2013 15 1006.87
2014 16
1056.70
6
2015 17
1108.07
8
2016 18
1160.98
6
2017 19 1215.43
Table 2.12
For 2017: Load (MVA) =1215.43 MVA
(6.4)Light Industries:
year t y t
2
t
3
t
4
y * t y *t
2
1999 1 118 1 1 1 118 118
2000 2 120 4 8 16 240 480
2001 3 125 9 27 81 375 1125
2002 4 125 16 64 256 500 2000
2003 5 130 25 125 625 650 3250
2004 6 140 36 216 1296 840 5040
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
2005 7 145 49 343 2401 1015 7105
2006 8 150 64 512 4096 1200 9600
2007 9 155 81 729 6561 1395 12555
Σt Σy Σt
2
Σt
3
Σt
4
Σ(y *
t)
Σ(y *
t
2
)
45 1208 285 2025 15333 6333 41273
Table 2.13
(6.4.1)Linear model:
Where a
o
& a
1
are computed constants as :
t a a y * ˆ
1 0
+ ·
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑ ∑
∑
) * (
*
1
0
2
t y
y
a
a
t t
t n
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Therefore: a
o
= 109.8055556, a
1
= 4.88333
year t y y^ e e
2
1999 1 118
114.688
9
3.31111
4
10.9634
8
2000 2 120
119.572
2
0.42778
4
0.18299
9
2001 3 125
124.455
5
0.54445
4
0.29643
1
2002 4 125
129.338
9

4.33888
18.8258
4
2003 5 130
134.222
2

4.22221
17.8270
2
2004 6 140
139.105
5
0.89446
4
0.80006
7
2005 7 145
143.988
9
1.01113
4
1.02239
3
2006 8 150
148.872
2
1.12780
4
1.27194
3
2007 9 155
153.755
5
1.24447
4
1.54871
7
Σe
2
52.7388
9
Table 2.14
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(6.4.2)Quadratic model:
Where
Therefore a
o
=115.142857 , a
1
= 1.972077922 , a
2
=0.2911255411
year t y y^ e e
2
1999 1 118
117.406
1
0.59393
9
0.35276
4
2000 2 120
120.251
5

0.25152 0.06326
2001 3 125
123.679
2
1.32077
9
1.74445
8
2002 4 125
127.689
2

2.68918
7.23167
5
2003 5 130
132.281
4

2.28139
5.20471
9
2004 6 140
137.455
8
2.54415
6
6.47272
9
2005 7 145
143.212
6
1.78744
6
3.19496
3
2
2 1 0
* * ˆ t a t a a y + + ·
]
]
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
) * (
) * ( *
2
2
1
0
4 3 2
3 2
2
t y
t y
y
a
a
a
t t t
t t t
t t n
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
2006 8 150
149.551
5
0.44848
5
0.20113
9
2007 9 155
156.472
7

1.47273
2.16892
5
Σe
2
26.6346
3
Table 2.15
From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model,
therefore:
year t y^
1999 1
117.406
1
2000 2
120.251
5
2001 3
123.679
2
2002 4
127.689
2
2003 5
132.281
4
2004 6
137.455
8
2005 7
143.212
6
2006 8
149.551
5
2007 9 156.472
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
7
2008 10
163.976
2
2009 11
172.061
9
2010 12
180.729
9
2011 13
189.980
1
2012 14
199.812
6
2013 15
210.227
3
2014 16
221.224
2
2015 17
232.803
5
2016 18
244.964
9
2017 19
257.708
7
Table 2.16
For 2017: Load (MVA) =257.7087 MVA
(6.5)Heavy Industrial:
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
year t y t
2
t
3
t
4
y * t y *t
2
1999 1
194.117
6 1 1 1
194.117
6
194.117
6
2000 2
217.647
1 4 8 16
435.294
1
870.588
2
2001 3
247.058
8 9 27 81
741.176
5
2223.52
9
2002 4
270.588
2 16 64 256
1082.35
3
4329.41
2
2003 5
282.352
9 25 125 625
1411.76
5
7058.82
4
2004 6
311.764
7 36 216 1296
1870.58
8
11223.5
3
2005 7
335.294
1 49 343 2401
2347.05
9
16429.4
1
2006 8
358.823
5 64 512 4096
2870.58
8
22964.7
1
2007 9
382.352
9 81 729 6561
3441.17
6
30970.5
9
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 Σ(y * t)
Σ(y *
t
2
)
45 2600 285 2025 15333
14394.1
2
96264.7
1
Table 2.17
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
(6.5.1)Linear model:
Where a
o
& a
1
are computed constants as :
Therefore: a
o
= 172.172, a
1
= 23.2353
Year t y y^ e e2
1999 1
194.117
6
195.407
7

1.29005
1.66423
6
2000 2
217.647
1 218.643

0.99593
0.99188
2
2001 3
247.058
8
241.878
3 5.18054 26.838
t a a y * ˆ
1 0
+ ·
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑ ∑
∑
) * (
*
1
0
2
t y
y
a
a
t t
t n
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
2002 4
270.588
2
265.113
6 5.47466
29.9719
1
2003 5
282.352
9
288.348
9

5.99593
35.9511
2
2004 6
311.764
7
311.584
2
0.18054
8
0.03259
7
2005 7
335.294
1
334.819
4
0.47466
8
0.22530
9
2006 8
358.823
5
358.054
7
0.76878
8
0.59103
5
2007 9
382.352
9 381.29
1.06290
8
1.12977
3
Σe
2
97.395
86
Table 2.18
(6.5.2)Quadratic model:
Where
Therefore a
o
=172.128831 , a
1
= 23.5536 , a
2
=  0.03183
2
2 1 0
* * ˆ t a t a a y + + ·
]
]
]
]
]
·
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
]
∑
∑
∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
) * (
) * ( *
2
2
1
0
4 3 2
3 2
2
t y
t y
y
a
a
a
t t t
t t t
t t n
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Year t y y^ e e
2
1999 1
194.117
6
195.650
6

1.53296
2.34996
3
2000 2
217.647
1
219.108
7

1.46166
2.13644
8
2001 3
247.058
8
242.503
2
4.55565
6 20.754
2002 4
270.588
2 265.834
4.75428
2 22.6032
2003 5
282.352
9
289.101
1

6.74814
45.5373
3
2004 6
311.764
7
312.304
5

0.53983
0.29141
7
2005 7
335.294
1
335.444
3

0.15022
0.02256
5
2006 8
358.823
5
358.520
5
0.30306
1
0.09184
6
2007 9
382.352
9
381.532
9
0.82000
2
0.67240
3
Σe
2
94.459
17
Table 2.19
From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model,
therefore :
Year t yˆ
11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
1999 1
195.650
6
2000 2
219.108
7
2001 3
242.503
2
2002 4 265.834
2003 5
289.101
1
2004 6
312.304
5
2005 7
335.444
3
2006 8
358.520
5
2007 9
381.532
9
2008 10
404.481
7
2009 11
427.366
9
2010 12
450.188
4
2011 13
472.946
2
2012 14
495.640
4
2013 15
518.270
8
2014 16 540.837
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
7
2015 17
563.340
8
2016 18
585.780
3
2017 19
608.156
2
Table 2.20
For 2017:Load (MVA) =608.1562 MVA
(6.6 ) The Final Forecasted Load Density for year
2017:
12
2 Electrical Load Forecasting
Table 2.21
Agriculture Residential
Heavy
Industries
Light
Industries
City
Center
Load(MVA) 140.9368 376.5831 608.1562 257.7087
1215.4
3
Area(Km
2
) 125 112.5 37.5 37.5 187.5
Load
Density(MVA/KM
2
)
1.1275 3.3474 16.2175 6.872 6.4823
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