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com | Call: 0731-655125
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International News
1. European markets were trading on a positive note yesterday on better than forecast
profit reports from utility major EON SE and Swiss Life Holding AG. Asian markets
ended higher and the US stock futures are trading in the green.
2. China’s Industrial Production fell to 9 percent in July from 9.2 percent in June. UK’s
Claimant Count Change fell by 33.6K in July as against a decline of 39.5K in June.
Unemployment Rate fell to 6.4 percent in June from 6.5 percent in May. Euro
Zone’s Industrial Production fell by 0.3 percent in June as against a plunge of 1.1
percent in May.
3. Talks to end a month-long war between Israel and Gaza militants are "difficult",
Palestinian delegates said, while Israeli officials said no progress had been made so
far and fighting could soon resume.
4. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that while the situation in several
producer countries was "more at risk than ever," supplies were ample and the
Atlantic Basin was facing a glut. OPEC output hit a five-month high of 30.44
million barrels per day (bpd) in July with a 300,000-bpd rise led by Saudi Arabia
and Libya, the IEA said.
5. Production in Iraqi Kurdistan remains largely unaffected
6. U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine have not yet
disrupted supply, but the IEA cautioned that the sanctions are expected to trim
Russian demand. (SOURCES : Reuters)
Precious Metals
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday on signs that the stand-off between Russia and
Ukraine was hurting economic confidence in the euro zone economy. Analyst and
investor morale in Germany, Europe's largest economy, plunged in August to its lowest
level in more than a year and a half as the crisis in Ukraine took its toll, the ZEW
monthly survey showed.
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While geopolitical tension has inspired some sporadic investment buying, gold has not
enjoyed much physical demand. In top consuming region Asia, demand has been
sluggish after a record year in 2013. Also, investors have been cutting positions in
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund. In the Indian
Markets, gold prices rose by 0.34 percent on Friday. Gold prices touched an intraday
High of 28891/10gms and closed at 28730/10gms.
Silver prices eased further on Tuesday in Asia following the U.S. lead as support from
tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine eased on prospects for negotiations in
both regions. In the Indian Markets, silver prices fell by 0.61 percent taking cues from
International Silver prices. Further, Stronger Indian Rupee also added pressure to the
prices. Silver Prices touched intraday low of 43555/Kg and closed at 43712/Kg
We expect gold prices to trade on the mixed note as weaker Indian Rupee on the back
of Inflation data coupled with Rise in Geopolitical tensions in Iraq and conflicts
between Russia and Ukraine may upsurge the demand for safe haven. However,
upcoming economic data from the US will be watched for the further improvement in
the economy. Additionally, Physical demand has not been strong enough to support
prices. In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may support prices.
Base Metals
London copper fell on Tuesday to near six-week lows as improving supply and renewed
tension between Ukraine and Russia combined with a summer lull to curb investors'
appetite for risky assets. Industrial production data from China due today could give a
clearer view about the health of the world's second-largest economy and the biggest
consumer of copper.
Among other metals, nickel has scope for further gains as third-quarter industrial
activity ramps up and China's stocks have diminished since Indonesia banned exports of
nickel ore in January.In the Indian Markets copper prices fell by 0.43 percent taking
clues from LME prices. MCX Copper touched an intraday low of 427.4/kg and closed at
We expect base metal prices to trade on the mixed note ahead of industrial production
data from China and major economic data from the United States, which should paint a
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clearer picture of the prospect for metals as the end of the year rolls around. Further,
weaker economic data from Europe and China may continue to keep prices under
pressure for lesser industrial demand. However, In the Indian Markets depreciation in
the Indian Rupee may support prices.
Crude prices fell on Tuesday in wake of a bearish report from the International Energy
Agency as well as perceptions that Iraqi oil exports will flow as normal despite an
insurgency taking place in the country. The International Energy Agency earlier cut its
2014 global oil demand growth forecast by 180,000 barrels per day to 1.0 million due
to lower than expected deliveries in the second quarter and the International Monetary ‐ ‐
Fund's weaker outlook for economic growth.
In the Indian Markets, crude oil price fell by 0.5 percent taking cues from NYMEX
Crude oil prices. Further, appreciation in the Indian Rupee also added pressure to the
prices. Crude oil prices touched an intraday low of 5945/bbl. and closed at 5981/bbl.
Natural gas futures rose on Tuesday as investors bet a heat wave making its way across
the eastern U.S. will prompt households to ramp up their air conditioning. While
showers and thunderstorms may cool off parts of the U.S. this week, a heat wave will
hold its ground through the third week in August. Higher temperatures often fuel
demand for more natural gas as households and business ramp up their air
conditioners. In the Indian Markets, Natural gas prices rose by 1.19 percent. Natural
Gas prices touched an intraday high of 246.8/mmbtu and closed at 245.8/mmbtu.
We expect crude oil prices to trade on the mixed note as couple of bearish reports from
IMF and EIA as well as worries over oil disruption from Iraq eased due to ample
supplies from other part of the country. Further, Stronger US Dollar may add pressure
to the international prices. However, In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian
Rupee may prevent sharp fall in the prices.
We expect Natural gas prices to trade on the mixed note. Forecast for showers and
thunderstorms may lower the demand for air conditioning. Further, continuous rise in
Natural Gas inventory and forecast of rise in supply/record production may also add
pressure to the prices. In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee may add
support to the prices.
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LME Inventory
NCDEX – Weekly News Letters
Chana Sept futures traded on a negative note on Thursday due to arrival pressure,
Prices have declined over the last few days on good rains which has improved prospects
for the rabi crop coupled with increasing sowing of kharif pulses.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 7th August
stands at 7.61 mn ha as against 8.9 mn ha last year. Sowing of Tur, Urad and Moong
stands at 2.78 mn ha, 1.83 mn ha and 1.71 mn ha respectively. CCEA increased the
MSP of tur and urad by Rs.50 to Rs.4,350 each, while the MSP of moong was increased
by Rs.100 to Rs.4,600/qtl.
The 3rd Advance Estimates pegged total pulses output for 2013-14 at 19.6 mn tn,
marginally lower from 19.8 mn tn earlier. There was a delay in the harvesting of the
chana crop along with some crop damage in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra
and Andhra Pradesh.
According to India Pulses and Grains Association, Apr-Dec’13 stood at import 2.4 mn tn
vs 2.8 mn tn last year. In value terms, India imported $2.3 billion of pulses in 2012-13,
almost 28% higher over $1.85 billion in the preceding year. However, imports in 2013-
14 season may decline 11% to 3.2 mn tn on expectations of higher output.
According to APEDA, Pulses exports (kabuli chana) between Apr-Feb ’14 rose 228% to
517,095 tn as against 157,799 tn between Apr-Feb ’13.
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LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminum Nickel
Current Stock 10675 215-00 715650 -1200 31-5-0
Change 700 0 -75 500 ,0
% Change 0.509 0.009 1.319 0.019 0.269
Soybean futures recovered from lower levels on Wednesday on short coverings and
traded in negative note on Thursday. Prices have declined sharply over the last few
days on good monsoon and weak meal export demand.
According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 7th August is reported at
10.31 mn ha compared to 11.88 mn ha last year. There have been concerns over below
normal monsoon this season, emergence of El-Nino and shortage of seeds for kharif
2014 sowing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs. 2500-2560/qtl.
The Ministry of Agriculture in its 3nd Advance Estimates, projected 2013-14 soybean
output at 11.9 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-13. Soy meal exports in July ’14
have declined 93.8% to 6,635 tn from 107,038 tn in July’13 on poor demand and lower
availability for crushing due to higher Indian quotes for foreign buyers.
CBOT Soybean
Nov futures traded on a negative note on Wednesday as USDA report forecast higher
soybean output. Rains in the Midwest coupled with favorable weather and record high
sowing also pressurized prices and settled 1.2% lower.
Planting in the US is complete at 84.839 mn acres, higher than the planting intention
forecast record high 81.493 mn acres. Good to excellent condition stood at 70% against
71% last week. According to NOPA, soybean crushing in June was reported at 118.718
mn bsh, against 128.824 mn bsh in May.
Jeera Sept futures recovered from lower levels on short coverings and settled 0.22%
higher. Prices have declined over the last few weeks on weak demand. Buyers are
waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover
stocks have also pressurized prices.
Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year
while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan.
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Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global
markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders
are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop
Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Wednesday. (Source: Agriwatch).
Exports of Jeera between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 96,500 tn, up 89% as against 50,944
tn between Apr-Dec 2012. (Source: Spices Board)
According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14.
Production of Jeera in 2013-14 is expected around 45-50 lakh bags (55 kgs each),
higher than 40-45 lakh bags last year.
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