Throwing spokes in the wheel

August 21, 2014

An impending alliance between the feuding Ranil and Sajith factions may
ofer hope of unity within the main opposition nited !ational "arty, but will
it torpedo burgeoning hopes of a common #pposition platform to contest
the 201$ presidential poll%
#n 24 &uly, within the musty con'nes of !ew (own )all on *reen "ath,
e+traordinary political scenes unfolded, -ronically, the politically.charged
e/ent featured only academic, professional and ci/il society spea0ers, all of
whom discussed constitution and nation building, rampant abuse of power
and the bro0en 1uality of the present system,
(here were two remar0able things about the low 0ey e/ent organised by
the moderate scholar mon0 2aduluwawe Sobitha (hero, who is leading a
mo/ement agitating for constitutional reform that will abolish the e+ecuti/e
presidential system, 3irstly, the !ational 2o/ement for Social &ustice, with
its band of top legal luminaries and constitutional e+perts, announced that
it had de/eloped a tangible roadmap for abolition, (he discussion around
abolition has e+isted for decades and 'ngers ha/e been burnt many times
o/er, 4et Sobitha (hero5s e+perts succeeded in bringing the discussion out
of the abstract for the /ery 'rst time, setting deadlines, closing loopholes
and drafting a credible modus operandi to ensure that the presidential
system is abolished si+ months after the ne+t presidential race,
6ut the real show.stopper that afternoon was the #pposition
cast that showed up at !ew (own )all to witness the e/ent,
(he felicitous picture published in many newspapers the /ery
ne+t day featured a star cast including not only Ranil
7ic0remesinghe, 8handri0a 9umaratunga, Sarath 3onse0a, R,
Sampanthan, 9aru &ayasuriya and the &:"5s Sunil )andunetti,
but also ousted 8hief &ustice Shirani 6andaranaya0e, who was
ma0ing a rare public appearance, and 6ar Association
"resident pul &ayasuriya, whose 'ery anti.impeachment
positions propelled him to lead the country5s legal fraternity,
6andaranaya0e and &ayasuriya are important symbols of the
#pposition mo/ement; the former badly used and abused by
the ruling administration, while &ayasuriya has become a formidable warrior
in the battle to restore judicial independence and uphold the rule of law,
!eedless to say, the picture created ripples in se/eral 1uarters, nity is a
rare feature of Sri <an0an politics, e/en among factions seemingly battling
the same enemy, so the image of the smiling team of #pposition ri/als had
a strange efect, on both the Rajapa0sa administration and the main
opposition nited !ational "arty,
(he diferent beast
Successi/e pro/incial and local go/ernment elections seem to indicate that
the ruling "3A coalition is well entrenched, -n the past nine years of
2ahinda Rajapa0sa rule, the regime has done well to consolidate its
electoral gains and triumph o/er the <((= by introducing draconian
legislation, winning o/er #pposition politicians and sowing discord in
/irtually e/ery #pposition political party, 6ut
e/en "resident Rajapa0sa and his 0ey
ad/isors 0now that presidential elections are
an entirely diferent type of beast, and that
pro/incial electoral success may not
necessarily translate into outright /ictories in
a major national polls battle,
-n the 200$ presidential election, 2ahinda Rajapa0sa > incredulously
contesting as the underdog in that poll > sei?ed the presidency with a wafer
thin margin, polling $0,2@A nationally, (iger <eader :elupillai "rabha0aran
altered the course of Sri <an0a5s political destiny for the third successi/e
time, when he enforced a boycott of the election in the <((=.controlled
areas of the north and east, depri/ing Ranil 7ic0remesinghe of crucial
minority /otes that would ha/e helped him to clinch power, (he shadowy
electoral pact that stole 7ic0remesinghe5s presidential hopes in 200$
bac0'red badly on "rabha0aran when the Rajapa0sa administration
ploughed through with the military option, decimating the <((= and 0illing
its top leadership in 2ay 200@,
-n &anuary 2010, when "resident Rajapa0sa contested against his former
Army 8hief Sarath 3onse0a, who was 'elded by an #pposition alliance, he
was at the ?enith of his popularity, =/en at his most in/incible then, the
incumbent "resident garnered only $B,CA of the national /ote,
201$ will mar0 si+ years since the end of the war, (he inter/ening years
ha/e been diDcult ones for the regime, although it has managed largely, to
retain its political and popular support, 6ut as economic peace di/idends
continue to e/ade the majority of Sri <an0ans, as corruption soars and the
mar0ers of dynastic family rule grow stronger, incumbency fatigue is setting
in, 2inority oppression, brutality against political opponents and the
repression of ci/il society, including the mainstream media, has contributed
to the 1uiet and still insigni'cant gal/anisation of forces that are agitating
for a restoration of democratic freedoms,
Eownward spiral
(he results of the 7estern and Southern "ro/incial 8ouncil polls in 2arch
this year indicated the regime5s slight
downward trend, e/en after the *o/ernment
stro/e to whip the electorate up into a fren?y
about Finternational conspiracies5 unfolding at
the ! sessions in *ene/a,
(he regime5s determination to shift the
goalposts in the /a pro/incial battle by
allocating more seats to the 2oneragala
Eistrict which fa/ours the "3A was an early
indicator of the *o/ernment5s /ulnerability in
the pro/ince, (he contest in /a will be the last small election ahead of the
presidential poll, (he sta0es are high for the #pposition, which will need to
show some momentum in /a to sustain hope for the presidential election,
6ut the *o/ernment will also desperately need to win by large margins in
the region to maintain its image of electoral in/incibility,
(he hea/y.handed and disproportionate State response to run.of.the.mill
/oter awareness dri/es funded by the S *o/ernment, a staple feature
ahead of major elections o/er the past '/e years, and the near.psychotic
hysteria about foreign.funded !*#s operating in the country all point to a
growing paranoia in the ran0s of the regime ahead of a crucial polls battle,
!one of these actions are reGecti/e of a supremely.con'dent incumbency,
(rouble spots
(he *o/ernment5s own popularity sur/eys ha/e begun to indicate trouble
spots for the regime in se/eral regions, (he regime5s post.war minority
policies ha/e ensured it can count out (amil and 2uslim /otes en bloc
across the island, !o number of carpeted roads, pa/ed wal0ways, fountains
and highways can stem the tide of public discontent once it begins to ta0e
shape, (he prospect of a fast.coalescing #pposition mo/ement therefore,
one that directly threatens the heart of the regime5s power by ta0ing arms
against the e+ecuti/e presidency, remains deeply discom'ting to the
Rajapa0sa administration,
A broad #pposition coalition bringing discontented socio.political factions
together against the presidency has the potential to mobilise support by
e+tension against "resident Rajapa0sa himself, who has learned to wield
the tools of e+ecuti/e oDce better than any predecessor, -n the regime5s
assessment, the "resident5s re.election chances are much better against a
main contender drawn ideally from within the !", -ts ultimate preference
would be !" <eader Ranil 7ic0remesinghe, the consummate peaceni0 and
traitor in the 'ght against the (igers, whose popularity amongst the
majority Sinhalese community has ne/er been wea0er,
-n the 7ic0remesinghe camp too, momentum gained by Sobitha (hero5s
abolition mo/ement that see0s to pit a single #pposition candidate against
"resident Rajapa0sa in a 201$ election, has resulted in some discomfort,
(he !" <eader will ne/er be the 'rst or second choice for common
candidate, not only because of his Achilles5 heel with the Sinhalese /oters,
but also because he is yet to categorically e+press his resol/e to abolish the
presidency, (wice already, 7ic0remesinghe has been tragically unluc0y at
presidential elections, when he was a clear forerunner, (he suicide bomb
attac0 against "resident 9umaratunga on the campaign trail /irtually
ensured her re.election on a wa/e of sympathy, and in 200$ the <((=.
enforced boycott in (amil.dominated areas stole the election from
7ic0remesinghe,
So
close
and
yet
so far
3or
the
!"
<eader, the presidency has always been so close and yet so far, and he
came onboard with the abolition mo/ement, only after it became clear that
the issue would become the de'ning platform of the ne+t presidential
election, 7ith "resident Rajapa0sa5s popularity in decline, and minority
/otes in the bag, perhaps the !" <eader belie/es his third time will be the
charm and a common #pposition platform that chooses to 'eld a diferent
candidate threatens to dash these hopes once more,
(he *o/ernment strategy is to acti/ely support 7ic0remesinghe to emerge
as the main challenger in the 201$ poll, #/er the past two months, its
2inisters and 2"s ha/e regularly attac0ed 7ic0remesinghe at press
conferences and political debates, recalling 6atalanda and other scandals in
his past, and painting him out to be a credible threat to the regime,
2eanwhile, the Administration has also ordered blac0outs in certain
sections of the media o/er which it wields inGuence, of speci'c potential
common candidates hailing from the #pposition,
(he de/elopments shed some light on the sudden mo/es to forge an
alliance between the warring Ranil and Sajith factions of the !",
"remadasa, who a mere nine months ago was calling for 7ic0remesinghe5s
head, insisting he 1uit both as !" <eader and #pposition <eader, is once
again e+ploring the option of ser/ing as deputy leader of the !", under his
arch ri/al, -t is unclear what has resulted in this sudden change of heart, but
after his /ery public remar0s about the "arty <eader and its *eneral
Secretary (issa Attanaya0e o/er the past nine months, "remadasa will ha/e
some e+plaining to do, -n a strange twist, e/en the much maligned
Attanaya0e has suddenly thrown in his lot with "remadasa, strongly
ad/ocating his reinstatement as deputy leader with 7ic0remesinghe
loyalists and senior party members,
6ac0ing Ranil5s bid
6ut crucially, o/er the past year, "remadasa has insisted on the !"
'elding its own candidate under the elephant symbol at the ne+t
presidential poll, (he 4B.year.old politician has ofered to be his party5s
candidate, if 7ic0remesinghe also concedes the party leadership to him, -f
"remadasa is returned to the fold as deputy to 7ic0remesinghe, he will be
the main bac0er of the !" <eader5s presidential bid, insisting that the
party contest independent of the #pposition alliance, (he return will signal
a reuni'cation that will greatly boost !" morale at the grassroot le/els
and possibly gi/e the party a major impetus at the /a pro/incial election,
7hat it will not do, is ensure the !"5s /ictory at the presidential election,
(his is a calculation "remadasa and his bac0ers are ma0ingH
7ic0remesinghe5s certain defeat against "resident Rajapa0sa will propel the
)ambantota Eistrict 2" to the helm of the !", the one pri?e he has had
his eye on since he 'rst began the agitation for leadership changes in the
party, Si+ years down the road, "remadasa will hope to do battle against a
much wea0er, much more unpopular Rajapa0sa presidency, and win that
election, "remadasa5s 2021 game begins here, a long game in which many
/ested interests and puppeteers ha/e major sta0es, *i/en the
*o/ernment5s own preference for a Rajapa0sa.7ic0remesinghe battle, !"
2"s are raising 1uestions once more about whether the "remadasa faction
is playing out the sinister agendas of powerful sections of the regime,
(he spoiler
(orpedo politics has become Sajith "remadasa5s forte, !" 2"s and
moderates blame "remadasa for spoiling any success that may ha/e been
reaped from the establishment of the <eadership 8ouncil led by 9aru
&ayasuriya in !o/ember last year, refusing to participate in the process and
citing a fri/olous e+cuse, "remadasa has ne/er agreed to openly challenge
7ic0remesinghe in a leadership contest, preferring to push &ayasuriya into a
battle that cost the senior politician the deputy leadership and his place on
the !" 7or0ing 8ommittee,
)e has been on the sidelines of e/ery electoral contest, when a di/ided and
struggling !" has gone to battle time and again against the Rajapa0sa
juggernaut, losing badly in the 'nal outcome, "remadasa5s lac0 of
participation ensures he has to ta0e no part in the blame or responsibility of
defeat,
"remadasa5s attitude towards the /a poll, where young )arin 3ernando
put senior "arliamentarians in the !" to shame by resigning from
"arliament to contest as the party5s chief ministerial candidate, is not /ery
diferent, Since he refused to sit on the <eadership 8ouncil, "remadasa has
been fading slightly in the public consciousness, losing column space and
air time to Anura 9umara Eissanaya0e and other 0ey #pposition 'gures
e/en among his staunchest media bac0ers,
"remadasa 0nows a common #pposition platform will only increase his
irrele/ance, -n fact as a /irtual non.entity within the !", his place in the
alliance will pro/e e/en more tenuous than 7ic0remesinghe5s own, Iuite
li0e 7ic0remesinghe, Sajith "remadasa has also shown only desire to
occupy presidential oDce, rather than resol/e to abolish the system,
7ic0remesinghe, mentored by &,R, &ayewardene, who brought about the
e+ecuti/e presidency, has ne/er publicly repudiated the system with much
con/iction,
Eangerous candidates
3or a single.issue common platform, see0ing to elect the country5s last
e+ecuti/e president > and one who will ha/e to clip his own wings by
abolishing the system > both 7ic0remesinghe and "remadasa will pro/e
dangerous candidates to 'eld, (he Ranil.Sajith alliance, howe/er fruitful for
the !", will almost certainly distance the party from the common
#pposition cause to abolish the presidency, (he !" will win no friends in
the #pposition for derailing the momentum of the common platform for
without political leadership from the main #pposition, the mo/ement to
abolish the presidency will stand no chance in the election, -t may also
relegate itself to #pposition and e/en fewer numbers in "arliament, by the
choice to contest independently,
-n the end game, Ranil 7ic0remesinghe has a great deal more to lose, )e
may not be anyone5s choice for presidential candidate at an election in
which the #pposition is focused on ending the presidential system, 4et he is
widely ac0nowledged as a worthy choice for prime minister, in a
7estminster system, "arliament is 7ic0remesinghe5s comfort ?one, and the
system ensures swift remo/al, pre/enting the entrenchment of any
indi/idual in the position,
As policyma0er and head of *o/ernment, 7ic0remesinghe has already
pro/ed his mettle, e/en if his failure to pander to nationalist elements
during his 2001.2004 reign shortened his tenure in oDce, -t is therefore in
7ic0remesinghe5s interest to ha/e the presidency abolished following the
ne+t election and emerge as the leader of the general election campaign,
once the playing 'eld is le/elled under a nominal presidency,
2athematics
4et, for some reason, the !" <eader is loath to ta0e his chances with an
#pposition alliance, preferring to collaborate with a party member who has
been agitating for his ouster for se/eral years, 7ic0remesinghe appears to
be ma0ing a mathematical calculation, one in which multiple #pposition
candidates will see0 to pre/ent "resident Rajapa0sa from crossing the
magic $0AJ1 mar0, 6ut with the strength of the State machinery at his
command, pushing the election into a second count may not result in an
ad/antage for an #pposition candidate, (heories in abstract are all /ery
well, if the #pposition was guaranteed a fair 'ght,
=lections in which an incumbent is also contesting ha/e rarely pro/ed to be
fair contests, 3or the 'rst time in nine years, the incumbent5s /eneer of
in/incibility has been slightly sha0en, but unless it battles together, the
#pposition still faces tremendous odds,
)a/ing constructed a mini.0ingdom, with a powerful ruling family at its
helm, the Rajapa0sa administration has e/erything to lose at this ne+t
election, 2a0e no mista0e, it is preparing for the 'ght of its life,