u.S.

8ebalanclng SLraLegy and
AusLralla's 8esponse:
8uslness As usual
LmerlLus Þrofessor Carlyle A. 1hayer
ÞresenLauon Lo conference on
u.S. 8ebalanclng SLraLegy and Asla's 8esponses
lnsuLuLe of Luropean and Amerlcan SLudles, , Academla Slnlca
1alpel, 1alwan, AugusL 2-122, 2014
CuLllne
1. u.S.-AusLralla Alllance (AnZuS)
2. u.S.-AusLralla uefence Cooperauon under Lhe
8ebalanclng SLraLegy
3. Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon LngagemenL wlLh
SouLheasL Asla before rebalanclng sLraLegy
4. Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon LngagemenL wlLh
SouLheasL Asla under Lhe rebalanclng sLraLegy
3. Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon LngagemenL wlLh
8eglonal MululaLeral lnsuLuuons
6. Concluslon
CenLral ArgumenL
• AusLralla gave lLs lmmedlaLe supporL Lo Lhe
Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon's sLraLegy of rebalanclng
because lL ls ln AusLralla's nauonal lnLeresL Lo
keep Lhe unlLed SLaLes engaged ln Lhe Asla-
Þaclñc and because u.S. engagemenL conLrlbuLes
Lo AusLralla's securlLy.
• 1he u.S.-AusLralla alllance has evolved over slxLy
years. ln oLher words, Lhe u.S. sLraLegy of
rebalanclng represenLed 'buslness as usual' from
an AusLrallan perspecuve.
u.S.-AusLralla Alllance (AnZuS)
• SecurlLy 1reaLy 8eLween AusLralla, new
Zealand and Lhe unlLed SLaLes of Amerlca
– SepLember 1, 1931
• Arucle lv
– Armed auack ln Þaclñc Area.acL Lo meeL Lhe
common danger
• Arucle v
– MeLropollLan or lsland LerrlLorles or armed forces,
publlc vessels or alrcraû ln Lhe Þaclñc
8eneñLs of Lhe AnZuS Alllance
1. SecurlLy guaranLee LhaL Lhe u.S. would come Lo
AusLralla's ald ln Lhe evenL of a ma[or sLraLeglc LhreaL,
2. Lxcepuonal access Lo hlgh-level u.S. pollcy-makers on
pollucal, dlplomauc and mlllLary añalrs,
3. Þrlvlleged access Lo Lhe ñndlngs, assessmenLs and
evaluauons of Lhe u.S. lnLelllgence agencles,
4. Þrlvlleged access Lo advanced sclence and
Lechnology, especlally ln defence-relaLed areas, and
3. Lconomlc beneñLs of speclal access Lo Lhe Amerlcan
markeL .

A Clobal Alllance
• AusLralla lnvokes AnZuS ln response Lo 9/11
auacks on Lhe unlLed SLaLes (14 SepL 2001)
• AusLralla paruclpaLes ln u.S.-led Clobal War
on 1errorlsm
– AfghanlsLan and lraq
– defence of AusLralla Lo Lhe defence of AusLrallan
lnLeresLs and values
Þrlme MlnlsLer Clllard Addresses !olnL
Slmng of Lhe u.S. Congress
March 9, 2011 ÞhoLo: !"# %&'(#& )*+(,(- .#+/0',
An ally for war and peace. .. An ally
for Lhe slxLy years pasL and AusLralla
ls an ally for all Lhe years Lo come.
u.S.-AusLralla uefence Cooperauon
under Lhe 8ebalanclng SLraLegy
ÞresldenL Cbama addresses Lhe AusLrallan ÞarllamenL, november 17, 2011
Lhe Asla Þaclñc a Lop prlorlLy
new SLraLeglc uefense Culdance
• ºwhlle Lhe u.S.
mlllLary wlll conunue
Lo conLrlbuLe Lo
securlLy globally, 1#
1,00 *2 (#3#44,5&
+#6/0/(3# 5*1/+'
5"# 74,/89/3,:3
+#-,*(."
AusLralla-unlLed
SLaLes MlnlsLerlal
ConsulLauons
(AuSMln)
november 20, 2013
AugusL 12, 2014
november 14, 2012
u.S.-AusLralla uefence Cooperauon
• lorce ÞosLure lnluauves
– 8oLauon of u.S. Marlnes
– !olnL SLaLemenL of Þrlnclples (2012)
• lnvolvemenL of oLher counLrles
– lorce ÞosLure AgreemenL (2014)
– u.S. Marlne Alr Cround 1ask lorce of 2,300
– Speclal lorces cooperauon (2014)
• lncreased roLauon of u.S. Alr lorce ln norLhern
AusLralla and poLenual naval cooperauon
– PMAS %;+0,(- ln WesLern AusLralla

u.S.-AusLralla uefence Cooperauon
• MCu on Space Survelllance
– C-8and 8adar, Space 1elescope, lnLernauonal
Code of ConducL for CuLer Space Acuvlues
– Comblned Communlcauons CaLeway
• uefence 1rade Cooperauon
• 8alllsuc Mlsslle uefence
• Lxpanded Lxerclse 1ALlSMAn SA88L
• uefence sclence and Lechnology, cyber
u.S.-AusLralla uefence Cooperauon
• 1rllaLeral uefence Cooperauon and uefence
Cooperauon lorum
– u.S., AusLralla and !apan
• 8eglonal ulalogue mululaLeral mechanlsms
– ASLAn
– ASLAn 8eglonal lorum
– ASLAn uefence MlnlsLers Meeung Þlus
– Lxpanded ASLAn Marlume lorum
– LasL Asla SummlL
• Speclal role of lndonesla
u.S.-AusLralla uefence Cooperauon
!"#$%&'&()*+ -./01(. "2 304)')#1&#5
• Lconomlc uevelopmenL and lnLegrauon
– AÞLC
– 1rans-Þaclñc ÞarLnershlp
– lree 1rade Area of Lhe Asla Þaclñc
• 8llaLeral Lrade and lnvesLmenL leadlng Lo
deepened economlc lnLegrauon.
• Þeople-Lo-people ues such as Lhe AusLrallan-
Amerlcan lulbrlghL Commlsslon.
• lnnovauon cooperauon ln energy, sclence,
Lechnology and healLh.
Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon LngagemenL wlLh
SouLheasL Asla 8efore Lhe 8ebalanclng SLraLegy
• Plgh level auenuon Lo SouLheasL Asla
• Slgned 1reaLy of AmlLy and Cooperauon
• Lower Mekong lnluauve launched
• ÞermanenL Mlsslon & Ambassador Lo ASLAn
• llrsL ASLAn-unlLed SLaLes Leaders' Meeung
• Shangrl-La ulalogue/AuMM Þlus
• ºnauonal lnLeresL" ln SouLh Chlna Sea
Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon LngagemenL wlLh
SouLheasL Asla under Lhe 8ebalanclng SLraLegy
1. SLrengLhenlng bllaLeral securlLy alllances,
2. ueepenlng worklng relauonshlps wlLh
emerglng powers, lncludlng wlLh Chlna,
3. Lngaglng wlLh reglonal mululaLeral
lnsuLuuons,
4. Lxpandlng Lrade and lnvesLmenL,
3. lorglng a broad-based mlllLary presence,
6. Advanclng democracy and human rlghLs'.
Cbama AdmlnlsLrauon LngagemenL
wlLh 8eglonal MululaLeral lnsuLuuons
• ASLAn 8eglonal lorum
– All meeung auended by SecreLary of SLaLe
• ASLAn uefence MlnlsLers' Meeung Þlus
– u.S. auended lnaugural meeung
• Lnlarged ASLAn Marlume lorum
• LasL Asla SummlL
– ÞresldenL Cbama auended 2011 and 2012
• SLraLeglc uncerLalnLy
Concluslon
• AnZuS alllance modernlsed and ralsed ln
lmporLance
• CenLreplece roLauonal deploymenL of Marlnes
– ConLrlbuuon Lo reglonal PA/u8
– lnvolvemenL of lndonesla, Chlna
• llnance ls an lssue for AusLralla
• 1rllaLeral defence cooperauon wlLh !apan
– SupporL for Abe's collecuve self-defence pollcy
Concluslon
• u.S. engagemenL ln Asla-Þaclñc/SouLheasL Asla
conLrlbuLes dlrecLly Lo reglonal sLablllLy and
AusLralla's securlLy
– SupporLs AusLralla's broad reglonal ob[ecuves
– lnßuence on u.S. pollcles of dlrecL lnLeresL Lo AusLralla
– Coordlnauon ln reglon's mululaLeral securlLy
archlLecLure
– Lngages boLh Lhe u.S. and Chlna
– Leverage for relauons wlLh lndonesla and Chlna
• CapablllLy of AusLrallan uefence lorce ralsed

Concluslon
• 8eneñLs for AusLrallan defence sclence and
Lechnology and nauonal defence lndusLry
– uefence 1rade Cooperauon 1reaLy
• 8eneñLs Lo u.S.
– uemonsLraLes Lhe value of closer cooperauon
wlLh Lhe u.S. mlllLary
– ÞosslblllLy of AusLrallan dlplomacy conLrlbuung Lo
u.S.-Chlna relauons
Concluslon
SLraLeglc uncerLalnLy ln AusLralla
• AblllLy of u.S. Lo ñnance lLs rebalance
• 8ebalanclng wlll provoke sLraLeglc rlvalry and
reglonal lnsLablllLy
• SLraLeglc lnLenL behlnd Chlna's mlllLary
modernlsauon
• Chlna wlll become more powerful and
dlsplace Lhe unlLed SLaLes as hegemon
Concluslon
1he Chlna Cholce?
• 1he CovernmenL does noL belleve LhaL
AusLralla musL choose beLween lLs
longsLandlng Alllance wlLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes
and lLs expandlng relauonshlp wlLh Chlna, nor
do Lhe unlLed SLaLes and Chlna belleve LhaL
we musL make such a cholce.
– uefence WhlLe Þaper 2013
u.S. 8ebalanclng SLraLegy and
AusLralla's 8esponse:
8uslness As usual
LmerlLus Þrofessor Carlyle A. 1hayer
Lmall: c.Lhayer[adfa.edu.au

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