Global emissions since Kyoto

7 Canada 6,385
8%
210

132

174 62

49 Sweden 668

56 Finland 606

179

23 Netherlands 2,850
63

54 Denmark 644

80 104 88

Eurasia 26,397m 17%
3 Russia 17,360
15%

tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007

growth in emissions over the period

%

Arrows show difference in country’s annual carbon emissions between 1997 and 2007

8 UK 6,281
-1%

27 Belgium 1,619
95

52 Belarus 649

26 Kazakhstan 108 1,790 109
68

6 Germany 9,487
-6%

20 Poland 3,308 18 Ukraine 3,722
38 Czech Rep. 1,045
65 106 118 99 64

35 Uzbekistan 1,237

12 France 4,466

105

44 North Korea 769

64,166 million tonnes
180

1 US

61

43 Austria 781

83

17 Spain 3,740
48 Portugal 678

55 Hungary 641

9 South Korea 5,059

10 Italy 4,997

78

85

59 Serbia & Montenegro
127

37 Romania 1,112

519
101

7%

120

57 Bulgaria 559

North America 74,867m 9%
tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007 growth in emissions over the period

Europe 50,370m 5%
growth in emissions over the period

135

36 Greece 1,124
140 209 103

tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007

Serbia & Montenegro since separation

24 Turkey 2,313

45,301 million tonnes
102%
165

2 China

4 Japan 13,342
9%

79

13 Mexico 4,302
173 98 113 167 112 122 115 89

121 73 217 153 84 93 185 71 211 90 181 204 212 147 206 144 188 199 194 156

70 192 133 119 177 191 163 146 186 159 166 110 116 183 154

197

40 Algeria 941
161

60 Libya 518
196

30 Egypt 1,497
102 107 168

Middle East 13,547m 59%
tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007 growth in emissions over the period
86

15 Iran 4,128

34 Pakistan 1,240
148

22 Taiwan 2,909
45 Hong Kong 735 42 Philippines 794
114

58 Syria 550
81

92

28 Venezuela 1,589

72

155

Central & South America 11,461m 26%
tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007 growth in emissions over the period

152 164

Africa 10,552m 25%

187 125 131 157 100

150 175

41 Iraq 883 46 Kuwait 703

39 Nigeria 1,028

158

47 Israel 701

134 189 69 96

182

53 Vietnam 647
136

tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007
216 142

172 117 124 184 126 207 138 82 141 91

169 151 205

171 145 129

growth in emissions over the period

123

51 Colombia 651
76 74

162 195

139

19 Saudi Arabia 3,663

77

66

5 India 11,870
60%

25 Thailand 2,194

Asia & Oceania 96,306m 64%
160 137 200 198 201 208 149 143 190

tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007

growth in emissions over the period

31 Malaysia 1,454

21 Indonesia 3,049

130 202

16 Brazil 3,881
97 128

50 Chile 656

29 Argentina 1,544

111

World 283,500m 29%
growth in emissions over the period

11 South Africa 4,504
tonnes of CO2 1997 to 2007

215 178 218 170 213

87 75

32 UAE 1,429
176

94

33 Singapore 1,307

203

14 Australia 4,203

214 193

CO2 emissions
Annual global emissions from fossil-fuel burning and cement, million tonnes of CO2
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950

Global warming
Change in global average near-surface temperature trend, relative to 1861-1900 average
0.75 0.5 0.25 0.0 -0.25 1850

Total carbon emissions, 1997–2007
Rank Country Million tonnes 97—07 Percent change 97—07 Rank Country Million tonnes 97—07 Percent change 97—07 Rank Country Million tonnes 97—07 Percent change 97—07 Rank Country Million tonnes 97—07 Percent change 97—07 Rank Country Million tonnes 97—07 Percent change 97—07

67

Earth has warmed 0.7C since around 1900

1975

2000

1875

1900

1925

1950

1975

2000

SOURCE: WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE 2006 (FROM STERN REPORT)

SOURCE: BROHAN ET AL. 2006 (FROM STERN REPORT)

The key issues at Copenhagen
Scientists say cuts of 25-40% by 2020 are needed, relative to 1990 levels, rising to 80-95% by 2050. Developed countries have grown rich on fossil fuels and still emit vast amounts of CO2 per person, so have a responsibility to make deepest cuts.

1

Cut carbon in rich world

Emissions from fast-growing economies such as China and India are surging, yet their citizens have small carbon footprints and millions live in poverty. So they’ll argue they need to be allowed to pollute for a while yet as they improve their citizens’ lives.

2

Curb carbon in developing world

All agree that the poorest nations need urgent aid, having done nothing to pollute the atmosphere. It will also cost a lot to create the clean technology essential for slashing global emissions. In both cases, rich nations will be expected to pick up the tab.

3

Pay the price for climate change

Poorer nations want to continue Kyoto’s top-down approach, with clear responsibilities placed on rich countries. Developing nations also want climate funds distributed by the UN, whereas developed countries would prefer the World Bank.

4

Keep tabs on funds and emissions

About 17% of the carbon emitted by human activity comes from razing forests. But paying people not to fell trees soon becomes complex... Who really owns them? Were they actually going to be chopped down? How do you verify the whole process?

5

Slow the speed of deforestation

Paying for clean technology is just the start, as the products and services required must be developed and deployed rapidly and efficiently all over the globe. But nations differ on whether a strong international body is needed, or just an advisory one.

6

Clean technology

Checklist of success
Rich nations commit to a combined reduction in greenhouse gases of 25-40% by 2020. Chance of success: Middling Developing nations commit to a 15–30% cut on the emissions levels expected in 2020. Chance of success: Good Richer nations commit to funding poorer ones, and clean technology, to tune of $200bn+ per year. Chance of success: Low Deal done on who monitors countries’ carbon emissions and distributes the money. Chance of success: Low Agreement which delivers cash to forested nations, meaning far fewer trees are cut down. Chance of success: Good Deal that delivers a radical overhaul in the deployment of clean technology. Chance of success: Fair

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

United States China Russia Japan India Germany Canada United Kingdom South Korea Italy South Africa France Mexico Australia Iran Brazil Spain Ukraine Saudi Arabia Poland Indonesia Taiwan Netherlands Turkey Thailand Kazakhstan Belgium Venezuela Argentina Egypt Malaysia United Arab Emirates Singapore Pakistan Uzbekistan Greece Romania Czech Republic Nigeria Algeria Iraq Philippines Austria North Korea Hong Kong

64,166 45,301 17,360 13,342 11,870 9,487 6,385 6,281 5,059 4,997 4,504 4,466 4,302 4,203 4,128 3,881 3,740 3,722 3,663 3,308 3,049 2,909 2,850 2,313 2,194 1,790 1,619 1,589 1,544 1,497 1,454 1,429 1,307 1,240 1,237 1,124 1,112 1,045 1,028 941 883 794 781 769 735

7 102 15 9 60 -6 8 -1 21 9 17 5 30 37 69 22 41 3 70 -11 29 47 9 51 40 81 -1 27 27 43 54 53 54 44 19 18 -15 3 12 25 37 16 13 4 80

46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

Kuwait Israel Portugal Sweden Chile Colombia Belarus Vietnam Denmark Hungary Finland Bulgaria Syria Serbia & Montenegro Libya Switzerland Norway Ireland Azerbaijan Slovakia Qatar New Zealand Turkmenistan Bangladesh Morocco Puerto Rico Trinidad & Tobago Cuba Peru Oman Ecuador Bahrain Croatia Tunisia Estonia Jordan Angola Slovenia Dominican Republic Bosnia & Herzegovina Lebanon Yemen Lithuania Panama Virgin Islands, US

703 701 678 668 656 651 649 647 644 641 606 559 550 519 518 497 471 456 430 428 426 410 387 375 370 364 362 345 310 277 249 249 234 223 200 186 185 184 181 170 169 166 164 148 148

49 25 16 -14 20 2 16 104 -24 -4 6 -7 15 -24 24 0 1 29 -7 -8 76 16 173 92 43 46 83 -25 28 102 37 58 36 17 16 53 71 3 54 97 -10 81 8 16 99

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135

Zimbabwe Netherlands Antilles Jamaica Sri Lanka Luxembourg Burma Bolivia Guatemala Armenia Kenya Macedonia Sudan Cyprus Latvia Mongolia Moldova Cameroon Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan IvoryCoast Uruguay Honduras El Salvador Brunei Costa Rica Ghana Gabon Georgia Senegal Gibraltar Bahamas Nicaragua Botswana Congo (Brazzaville) Ethiopia Tanzania Albania Paraguay Mauritius Papua New Guinea Equatorial Guinea Iceland Mauritania Nepal Malta

137 127 126 124 115 113 112 108 100 98 97 92 90 90 83 77 74 70 69 69 68 65 64 61 61 61 55 53 52 47 45 45 44 42 42 41 40 39 39 38 36 35 34 32 32

-23 3 24 46 41 98 70 72 48 68 -16 204 41 16 25 -12 8 -22 42 31 43 105 37 178 53 82 -23 -6 64 41 44 61 40 51 212 131 138 29 73 71 185 23 -8 78 11

136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180

Cambodia Guam Congo (Kinshasa) Reunion Serbia Zambia Namibia New Caledonia Martinique Madagascar Benin Guadeloupe Macau Fiji Djibouti Mozambique Suriname Haiti Togo Guyana Barbados Uganda Palestine Guinea Wake Island Niger Swaziland Burkina Faso French Guiana Afghanistan Sierra Leone Aruba Eritrea Malawi French Polynesia Seychelles Rwanda Belize Faroe Islands Somalia Maldives Mali American Samoa Greenland Bermuda

31 29 29 28 27 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 20 20 20 18 18 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 9.4 9.3 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 7.7 7.7 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2

111 -44 -35 48 -9 113 67 22 100 170 29 57 144 -4 108 36 26 300 44 -4 84 637 13 -1 12 24 18 16 -42 37 16 -33 41 48 83 22 123 19 36 157 28 6 16 26

181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218

Antigua & Barbuda Laos Liberia Burundi Cayman Islands Guinea-Bissau Central African Republic Saint Lucia Bhutan U.S. Pacific Islands Gambia Western Sahara Antarctica Grenada Lesotho Chad Cape Verde Solomon Islands St Vincent & Grenadines Nauru Samoa East Timor Tonga Saint Kitts & Nevis Comoros Dominica Sao Tome & Principe Vanuatu Montenegro St Pierre & Miquelon Virgin Islands, British Montserrat Cook Islands Falkland Islands Kiribati Saint Helena Turks & Caicos Islands Niue

6.1 5.6 5.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0

33 36 54 3 41 30 13 87 18 1 51 23 16 42 35 39 151 28 49 14 29 -46 87 43 47 40 59 -46 70 75 58 31 84 132 -47

The summit in numbers

15,000

Number of delegates expected to attend official Copenhagen summit

40,500

Tonnes of carbon dioxide predicted to be emitted by those delegates while at the summit

700,000 $62m+ 65%

Cost in euros of replacing outdated brick kilns in Bangladesh, paid for by Danish government to offset those emissions

Estimated cost to Danish government of staging the event

The data is the latest available compiled by the Environment Information Administration, part of the US Department of Energy. Although newer data is available from other sources, the EIA is the only credible source of carbon emissions for every country in the world.

Minimum proportion of food and drink provided to delegates that will be organic
DATA: SIMON ROGERS, GRAPHIC: PAUL SCRUTON