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Research Methodology

Quiz 01

20 October 2013

1

Probability Theory

1

Please Solve the Following

Q1 A box contains 6 white and 4 black balls.

Remove two balls at random without replacement.

What is the probability that the first one is white

and the second one is black? (08)

Q2 Two boxes B1 and B2 contain 100 and 200 light

bulbs respectively. The first box (B1) has 15

defective bulbs and the second 5. Suppose a box

is selected at random and one bulb is picked out.

a. What is the probability that it is defective? (08)

b. Suppose we test the bulb and it is found to be

defective. What is the probability that it came from

box 1? (14)

2

10/20/2013

Let W1 = first ball removed is white

B2 = second ball removed is black

We need We have

Using the conditional probability rule,

But

and

and hence

?)( 21 =ÇBWP). ()|()()( 1121221

WPWBPWBPBWP==

,

5

3

10

6

46

6

)( 1 ==

+

=WP,

9

4

45

4

)|( 12 =

+

=WBP.25 .081

20

9

4

9

5

)( 21 »=×=BWP.122121

WBBWBW==Ç

3

Probability Theory

An Important Question

Are the events W1 and B2 are independent?

4

10/20/2013

Are the events W1 and B2 independent?

Our common sense says No.

To verify this we need to compute P(B2).

Of course the fate of the second ball very much

depends on that of the first ball.

The first ball has two options:

W1 = first ball is white or

B1= first ball is black.

Note that

and

,11 f=ÇBW.11 W=ÈBWHence W1 together with

B1 form a partition

Probability Theory

5

6

As expected, the events W1 and B2 are dependent.

,

5

2

15

24

5

2

3

1

5

3

9

4

10

4

36

3

5

3

45

4

)()|()()|()(

==

++

1121122

+

×+×=×+×=

+=BPRBPWPWBPBP81 55

.

20

)(

32

)()( 12B21 =¹×=WBPWPP

10/20/2013

Question 2 Two boxes B1 and B2 contain 100 and 200 light

bulbs respectively. The first box (B1) has 15 defective

bulbs and the second 5. Suppose a box is selected at

random and one bulb is picked out.

(a) What is the probability that it is defective?

Solution: Note that box B1 has 85 good and 15 defective

bulbs. Similarly box B2 has 195 good and 5 defective

bulbs.

Let D = Defective bulb is picked out.

Then

1

15

( | ) 0 .15

10 0

PDB==

2

5

( | ) 0.0 25

2 00

PDB==

7

Since a box is selected at random, they are equally likely.

Thus B1 and B2 form a partition

Thus, there is about 9% probability that a bulb picked at

random is defective

1( )PB( )PD2( )PB=1

2

=

1( | )PDB=1( )PB2 2( | ) ( )PDBPB+

0 .1 5 =

1

2

×1

0.025

2

+×0 .0 8 7 5 =

Probability Theory

8

10/20/2013

(b) Suppose we test the bulb and it is found to be defective.

What is the probability that it came from box 1?

1( | )PBD?)|( 1 =DBP1 1( | ) ( )

( )

PDBPBPD

=

0.1 5 1 / 2

0 .0 8 75

×

=

0 .8 5 7 1 =

9

Probability Theory

Probability Theory

Notice that initially then we picked out a box

at random and tested a bulb that turned out to be defective.

Can this information shed some light about the fact that we

might have picked up box 1?

and indeed it is more likely at this

point that we must have chosen box 1 in favor of box 2.

(Recall box1 has six times more defective bulbs compared

to box2).

;5.0)( 1 =BP,5.0857 .0)|( 1 >=DBP10

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