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Outlook for Energy

A View to 2030
Exxon Mobil Corporation Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030
Table of Contents

Evolution of energy and technology 2

Our key energy challenges 6

Growing global demand 13

Global transportation demand 15

A single-cell oil well? 16

Improving today’s vehicle 18

Thinking outside the tank 20

Global industrial demand 21

Managing emissions 22

Global energy demand and supply 25

The importance of natural gas 27

Options for carbon policy 31

CO2 emissions 32

Integrated energy solutions 34

Key findings 36

Glossary 37

This publication includes forward-looking statements. Actual future


conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and
energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology,
the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic
changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of
ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be
reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

IFC1 exxonmobil.com
The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2030
In our Outlook for Energy – A View to 2030, we see many the world varies dramatically but equates to an average of
hopeful things – economic recovery and growth, improved 200,000 British thermal units (BTUs) a day. Globally, that
living standards and a reduction in poverty, and promising translates to 15 billion BTUs every second.
new energy technologies.
ExxonMobil believes that meeting future energy needs while
But we also see a tremendous challenge: how to meet the also reducing environmental risk will require an integrated set
world’s growing energy needs while also reducing the impact of solutions that includes:
of energy use on the environment.
• Accelerating energy efficiency, which tempers demand and
As the Outlook shows, ExxonMobil expects that global energy saves emissions
demand in 2030 will be almost 35 percent higher than in • Expanding all economic energy sources, including oil and
2005, even accounting for the recession that dampened natural gas
energy demand in 2009. Other key findings include: • Mitigating emissions through the use of new technologies
and cleaner-burning fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and
• Growth will be led by rapid expansion in non-OECD other renewable sources.
countries such as China and India, where energy usage will
rise by about 65 percent. This multidimensional approach will need trillions of dollars
• Demand will be particularly intense for electric power in investment, and an unwavering commitment to innovation
generation, which will comprise 40 percent of global energy and technology that evolves over years and decades. It will
demand by 2030. require sound, stable government policies that enable access
• Oil and natural gas will remain essential, but other sources to resources and encourage long-term investments and
including nuclear and renewables (e.g., wind, solar and technological development. And it will require the global
biofuels) will play an expanded role. energy industry to operate on a scale even larger than today.

The future of energy is directly linked to the future well-being Updated each year, The Outlook for Energy is a comprehensive
and prosperity of the world’s people. look at long-term trends in energy demand, supply, emissions
and technology. The report is built upon detailed analysis of
Today, about 1.5 billion people – a quarter of the world’s data from about 100 countries, incorporating publicly available
population – lack access to electricity. Even more lack modern information as well as in-house expertise.
cooking and heating fuels. Expanding access to energy – and
the opportunities it affords – should be a shared global goal. ExxonMobil uses the Outlook to guide its long-term investment
decisions. We share it publicly to encourage a better
Our energy and environmental challenges are intertwined and understanding of our company, our industry and the global
their scale is enormous. Today, energy use per person around energy challenges that we all have a vested interest in meeting.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 1


Evolution of energy and technology

Energy sources and technology evolve industrial needs of an increasingly wealthy


over time – and each influences the nation. Coal remained significant and
other. By understanding the history of helped meet growing electricity demand.
energy and technology, we can better
understand the future course of the From 1950 to 2000, we saw the
energy challenge. introduction and growth of nuclear energy
and the first meaningful appearance of
As an example, the history of energy modern renewable fuels. Natural gas also
use in the United States over the last continued to grow and was now fueling
150 years illustrates the way energy use power generators as well.
and technologies develop over time.
Looking out to 2030, we see gradual
In the United States in 1850, wood shifts in energy and technology
was the biggest energy source. But by continuing. Both the U.S. and world
1900, coal had become predominant. energy mix continue to grow more
Technology played a role in this trend, as diverse, which strengthens energy
mining evolved and coal fed the newly security by reducing the risk from
industrialized nation. America’s access to disruption to any single supply source.
energy enabled its growth as an industrial We will need to expand all these
economy; in turn, industrial growth and sources – and develop new ones –
the wealth it created expanded U.S. to meet future demand. New energy
energy demand. It is important to note technologies will open up new energy
that it took about 40 years for coal to sources, and new end-use technologies
achieve its substantial share. will reshape demand patterns, just
as they have for the last 150 years. It
By 1950, oil was overtaking coal, as is important to remember, however,
more Americans owned cars and rail that these shifts happen slowly, over
transport shifted from coal to diesel. the course of decades. Free markets,
The growth of cars and trucks, as open trade, and stable legal, regulatory
well as the birth of the commercial and tax frameworks will facilitate these
airline industry, meant a new need for positive transformations.
transportation fuels. Improvements in
oil-exploration technologies helped keep Change in energy use and technology
pace with this growing fuel demand. development is an evolutionary
process, but one that often has
Also by 1950, hydroelectric power came revolutionary impacts.
into use. And natural gas, considered
nearly worthless a generation earlier, grew
as a fuel to meet the growing heating and
Transition to modern energy/technology
U.S. Energy Demand
Percent Wood Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear

100

75

50

25

1869 Golden 1879 First 1884 First 1896 1901 1907 First
1859 First oil spike set in commercial steam turbine Niagara Falls First-gasoline drive-in gas
well drilled in Transcontinental incandescent hydroelectric powered station
Titusville, PA. Railroad light bulb plant opens automobile opened
mass-produced
Modern Renewables Source: Energy Information Administration

1916 First 1927 1933 1936 1947 First 1954 1956 1969 First flight 1975 Vehicle
radio turner Charles Philo Hoover Dam offshore Modern Interstate of the Concorde fuel economy
Lindbergh Farnsworth completed well out of silicon Highway supersonic jet standards
flew across develops sight of solar cell Bill signed 1969 Man (CAFE) enacted
Atlantic electronic land invented walks on the by Congress
television moon
1952 First
commercial jet
service

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 2


1979 The first 1980 The first 1992 U.S. 2009 U.S. natural gas resources now cover about 100 years at
commercial U.S. windfarm 2001 Human 2005 U.S.
"Energy Star" current demand due to unconventional gas drilling technology
citywide cellular consisting of genome mandate for
program advances (Source: Colorado School of Mines)
network was 20 turbines is sequenced ethanol
introduced
launched in built in New blending into
1991 First gasoline
Japan Hampshire
commercial
1981 IBM lithium battery 2003 First
introduces ultra-deepwater
the personal well depth
computer greater than
3,000 meters
Importance of energy
Before considering the many energy demand, supply and
emissions trends that constitute the world’s energy outlook
through 2030, it is worth reflecting on the importance of
energy to all aspects of our lives.

Fundamentally, the energy outlook is about people – billions


of people and their families using energy to improve their
daily lives.

At a national and international level, it is the lifeblood


of modern economies. For developed nations, reliable
energy fuels the technologies and services that enrich and
extend life. Energy powers advanced computers, improved
transportation, expanded communications, cutting-edge
medical equipment and procedures, and much more.

For developing nations, expanding reliable and affordable


supplies of energy supports and even accelerates changes
that improve and save lives. Reliable energy means
expanded industry, modern agriculture, increased trade
and improved transportation. These are building blocks
of economic growth that create the jobs that help people
escape poverty and create better lives for their children.

For these reasons and more, energy issues are vitally


important and demand our understanding.

4 exxonmobil.com
Your energy footprint
Your energy footprint
daily energy use
BTUs per Person

740,000
North America
BTUs per Day

Russia/Caspian

Europe

Middle East
Direct Energy Use
Household Personal Vehicle
Latin America
Indirect Energy Use

Asia Pacific

Africa

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

The benefits of energy reach far beyond of the total. In other words, when direct
what we may see in our day-to-day lives. and indirect energy consumption are
Data as of 11/30/2009
counted, each of us has on average an
The energy XOM Energyuse
that people Outlook
every day – to run energy “footprint” that is about Households
twice the Personal Car Public Buildings Commercial Tra
For: GCG
their householdsPatand drive
Gabriel / Briantheir cars
Wilburn – is what
817-332-4600 size of what weNAmight typically 146542
consider 129057 117161 80377
File name: as 05A
we can categorize XOMEO-EnergyUse.ai
personal, or direct, R/C
our personal energy consumption. 96721 7707 29261 28943
Placed file(s): None
Europe 92112 35434 45103 52179
consumption of energy, and it includes the ME 73984 14388 26748 62898
For page: 05 updated: 12/07/2009
fuel used to make electricity for theLast home. In 2005, the average
LA person in North21908America 9398 8081 25550
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
AP footprint equivalent
had a daily energy 30218to 5442 10042 10873
ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc. Africa 35406 1882 2788 8025
To complete the picture, we also need nearly 740,000 BTUs of energy.
to count theUsage:
energy that
Unlimited powers
within ExxonMobilprivate

enterprise, public services and other The pattern of direct and indirect energy
important needs across society. use holds true in every region of the
world. While the absolute level of energy
This indirect consumption includes energy use differs, indirect use is larger in every
required to run buildings (schools, hospitals, region.
retail shops), commercial transportation
(trucking, air and rail travel) and industry As we look at different ways to solve our
(manufacturing, chemicals, steel). Every energy challenges, we must consider not
member of society benefits from this only the energy we use in our daily lives,
indirect energy usage – through job but also the tremendous energy being
opportunities, higher living standards and used behind the scenes that makes our
overall economic growth. modern lives possible.

On a global, per-capita basis, indirect


energy consumption is about two-thirds

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 5


Our key energy challenges

As we survey the global energy landscape to need to manage the risks to our climate Globally, about 2.5 billion people rely
on traditional fuels such as wood and
2030, we see several interlocking challenges. and environment. That includes taking
dung for heating and cooking.
meaningful steps to curb carbon dioxide
One of the biggest jobs through 2030 will be (CO2) emissions, while at the same time
to reduce poverty and raise living standards utilizing local resources to help maintain
around the world. An important factor in secure supplies.
achieving this goal will be to continue meeting
the world’s energy needs safely, reliably and We can meet these interlocking
affordably, even as population and economic challenges. To do it, we will need an
growth – particularly in developing countries – integrated set of solutions that includes
pushes global demand higher by almost 35 expanding all economic energy sources,
percent compared to 2005. improving efficiency and mitigating
emissions through the use of cleaner-
By providing reliable and affordable energy, burning fuels such as natural gas.
we will also help revitalize economies and
enable broad economic gains around the These solutions must be supported
world. Meeting this demand will not be by trillions of dollars in new energy
easy, especially considering that the world’s investment, a long-term focus and constant
energy resources are increasingly found in technological innovation.
difficult or hard-to-reach places. And it will
require the global energy industry to operate ExxonMobil is committed to pursuing each
on a scale even larger than it does today. of these integrated solutions.

At the same time, because we want to


ensure that today’s progress does not come
at the expense of future generations, we

6 exxonmobil.com
Challenge: meeting basic needs
Challenge: meeting basic needs Globally,
electricity modern cooking and heating fuels about

Available Available 1.5


billion people
lack access
About About
to electricity.
1.5 Billion People 2.5 Billion People
with No Electricity with No Modern
Cooking or Heating Fuels

Over the past 150 years, the evolution of poverty. For nations with widespread
modern energy and technology has enabled poverty, affordable and reliable energy also
people in developed countries to achieve is vital to building homes, schools, hospitals
a lifestyle in which access to energy – at and sanitation systems that can improve
home, at work and on the road – is largely XOM
and save Energy Outlook
lives.
For: GCG
taken for granted. In many of these places, Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
File name: 07A XOMEO-MeetingBasicNeeds.ai
the challenge today is largely one of securing As we consider the energy outlook to 2030,
None
Placed file(s):
enough reliable, affordable energy to it is important to keep in mind this “energy
For page: 07 Last updated: 12/07/2009
continue meeting these existing needs. gap,” and energy’s potential to lift lives and
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison A satellite image of the Earth
improve ZM
communities in developed
GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 and
• carol@zmgraphics.com at night shows electricity
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
But in some parts of the world, the challenge developing nations alike. usage by region.
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
is far more basic. Today, globally, about
1.5 billion people lack access to electricity.

Even more live without modern fuels for


cooking and heating. Instead, these
2.5 billion people – nearly 40 percent of the
world’s population – rely on burning wood,
dung or other traditional biomass fuels,
which can be dangerous to people’s health
and harmful to air quality.

Gaining access to energy represents


hope and opportunity. It means improved
transportation, increased commerce,
expanded industry and greater access to
health care and other social services – all of
which create jobs that help people escape

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 7


8 exxonmobil.com
On average, a city of 1 million people
in the OECD:
Needs 6 million BTUs of energy every second

Consumes over 1,000 gallons of oil per minute

Uses 150 tons of coal each hour

Requires two world-scale power plants

Drives 500,000 cars that use over 500,000


gallons of petroleum every day

Naples, Italy, population 1,004,500

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 9


1/1/82 45
1/1/83 46
1/1/84 47
1/1/85 47
1/1/86 48

Energy demand to grow significantly 1/1/87


1/1/88
1/1/89
49
50
51
Energy demand to grow sharply 1/1/90
1/1/91
52
53
1/1/92 53
1/1/93 54
population GDP energy demand 1/1/94 55
Billions Trillions in 2005 Dollars Quadrillion BTUs 1/1/95 56
1/1/96 57
10 100 700
0.9% 2.7% 1.2% 1/1/97 57
Average Growth per Year Average Growth per Year Average Growth per Year 1/1/98 58
2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030 1/1/99 59
600
1/1/00 60
8 80
1/1/01 60
500 1/1/02 61
1/1/03 62
1/1/04 63
6 60
400 1/1/05 63
1/1/06 64
1/1/07 65
300 1/1/08 65
4 40
1/1/09 66
1/1/10 67
200 1/1/11 67
1/1/12 68
2 20 1/1/13 69
100 1/1/14 69
1/1/15 70
1/1/16 71
0 0 0 1/1/17 71
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
1/1/18 72
1/1/19 73
1/1/20 73
1/1/25 76
When ExxonMobil prepares its Outlook for ExxonMobil expects that global energy 1/1/30 79
Energy each year, we start with the world’s demand will rise by an average annual
XOM Energy Outlook
economic outlook, because economic rate of 1.2 percent a year through 2030,
For: GCG
Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
activity – along with population growth – is when the world will be using almost 35
10A XOMEO-WorldFactors.ai
File name:
a fundamental driver of energy demand. percent more energy than it did in 2005.
Placed file(s): None

For page: 10 The composition of the world’s energy will


Last updated: 12/07/2009
The economic
Updatedtrend, globally,
by: Carol is the same,
Zuber-Mallison continue to evolve through 2030, as we
ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
and it’s encouraging. (c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
will discuss later in the Outlook.

Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil


While the recession is expected to produce a It’s important to note that while economic
2 percent contraction in global GDP in 2009, growth drives energy demand, because
In the United States and other OECD
economic growth will return, and return of expected gains in energy efficiency, our
countries, energy demand will be
to a pre-recession rate. In fact, from 2005 projected rate of energy-demand growth
essentially flat and CO2 emissions
through 2030, we see global GDP expanding (1.2 percent) is less than half the rate will decline through 2030 even as
at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent. of global GDP growth (2.7 percent) economies and populations grow.
through 2030. Energy efficiency will play a key role.
At the same time, the world’s population
is expected to rise from 6.7 billion today to
almost 8 billion. As we noted earlier, rising
populations not only create new demands for
energy for personal needs such as fuels for
cars and electricity for homes, but also energy
that is consumed “indirectly” – the energy that
serves the broader society and economy.

Together, population and economic growth


through 2030 will continue to drive global
energy demand higher.

10 exxonmobil.com
Data as of 10/28/2009

Economic growth drives energy demand


GDP
OECD Non
1/1/80 16631 3627
Economic growth drives energy demand 1/1/81 16928 3645
Global 1/1/82
1/1/83
16953
17420
3682
3768
1/1/84 18236 3913
GDP energy demand energy demand 1/1/85 18893 4027
Trillions in 2005 Dollars Quadrillion BTUs 1/1/86 19473 4214
will be almost1/1/87 20150 4403

35
60 400 1/1/88 21074 4588

%
Non-OECD 1/1/89 21876 4719
1/1/90 22524 4781
50 1/1/91 22894 4877
OECD 1/1/92 23334 4967
300 1/1/93 23632 5127
1/1/94 24350 5352
40
1/1/95 24948 5610
OECD 1/1/96 25679 5895
higher in 2030 1/1/97 26547 6198
30 200 1/1/98 27165 6336
Non-OECD than it was1/1/99
1/1/00
28016
29085
6548
6913
1/1/01 29400 7140
20
in 2005. 1/1/02 29820 7423
100 1/1/03 30380 7856
1/1/04 31333 8453
10
1/1/05 32117 9057
1/1/06 33063 9770
1/1/07 33885 1055
0 0 1/1/08 34141 1118
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1/1/09 33023 1139
1/1/10 33391 1191
1/1/11 33961 1249
1/1/12 34743 1313
While global energy demand is expected By contrast, in OECD countries, energy 1/1/13 35544 1379
to rise by almost 35 percent through 2030, demand is expected to actually be 1/1/14 36350 1447
1/1/15 37176 1517
to fully understand the energy outlook in slightly lower in 2030 versus 2005, even 1/1/16 38011 1591
comingXOM Energy
decades, weOutlook
need to examine what’s though their economies will be more 1/1/17 38866 1668
For: GCG 1/1/18 39743 1748
going on inPatdeveloped
Gabriel / Brian Organization for
Wilburn 817-332-4600 than 50 percent larger on average. 1/1/19 40640 1833
11A XOMEO-EconomicGrowth.ai
File name: 1/1/20 41552 1921
Economic Co-operation and Development 1/1/21 42436 2010
None
Placed file(s):
(OECD) countries (like the United States and How is this possible? The main reason is 1/1/22 43339 2102
11A
For page: Last updated: 12/07/2009 1/1/23 44261 2199
European nations) and non-OECD
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
nations efficiency. ExxonMobil continues to project 1/1/24 45203 2300
(such asZMChina and •India),
GRAPHICS because
214-906-4162 the trends
• carol@zmgraphics.com substantial improvements in efficiency in OECD 1/1/25 46165 2406
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc. 1/1/26 47127 2507
in these two groups can be starkly different. countries. In non-OECD countries, we also see 1/1/27 48110 2612
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
efficiency improving, but faster growth in GDP 1/1/28 49113 2721
1/1/29 50137 2834
Through 2030, the economies of non-OECD and personal incomes will continue to drive 1/1/30 51182 2953
countries, while still relatively smaller, will grow demand higher there.
at a much faster rate than those of the OECD.
By 2030, these developing economies will
have reached close to 60 percent of OECD
economic output.

In non-OECD countries, rapid economic


growth is expected to produce a steep climb
in energy demand. In fact, we expect
that between 2005 and 2030, non-OECD
energy demand will grow by about
65 percent. However, even with this rapid
growth, per-capita energy demand in non-
OECD countries still will be much smaller The world uses 15 billion BTUs
than in OECD countries. of energy every second. As more
countries move up the economic
ladder, more energy will be required.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 11


1/1/81 14.3 1/1/81 293.5
1/1/82 14.1 1/1/82 291.9
1/1/83 14 1/1/83 295.9
1/1/84 13.9 1/1/84 308.6
1/1/85 13.8 1/1/85 315.7

Efficiency: reducing demand growth 1/1/86


1/1/87
13.6
13.6
1/1/86
1/1/87
322.7
334.2

Efficiency: reducing demand growth 1/1/88


1/1/89
13.5
13.3
Gains in energy
1/1/88
1/1/89
346.3
354.1
1/1/90 13.2 1/1/90 359.4
1/1/91 13.1 1/1/91 364.1
energy per GDP energy demand efficiency through
1/1/92 12.9 1/1/92 365.1
1/1/93 12.8 1/1/93 367.1
Millions of BTUs per Unit of Gross Domestic Product
in 2005 Dollars
15
Quadrillion BTUs
1000
1/1/94
1/1/952030 will
12.5
12.5
1/1/94
1/1/95
371.4
382.6
1/1/96 12.5 1/1/96 393.3
900
What demand would be
without efficiency gains
reduce global
1/1/97 12.1 1/1/97 397.7
1/1/98 11.9 1/1/98 400.1

1.2% Constant 2005 Level 800 ~300


Quads
energy-demand
1/1/99
1/1/00
11.8
11.5
1/1/99
1/1/00
406.3
414.5
Average Efficiency Gain 1/1/01 11.4 1/1/01 417.3
10 per Year
1980 – 2000
700
1/1/02growth by
11.4 1/1/02 424.6
600 1/1/03 11.5 1/1/03 439.7
approximately
1/1/04 11.5 1/1/04 458.7

65
1.5% 1/1/05 11.4 1/1/05 470.7
500

%
Average Efficiency Gain
per Year
1/1/06 11.3 1/1/06 483.5
1.2%
2005 – 2030 1/1/07 11.1 1/1/07 495.3
400 Average Growth per Year
2005 – 2030 1/1/08 11 1/1/08 499.7
5 1/1/09 10.8 1/1/09 481.8
300
1/1/10 10.9 1/1/10 491.6
200
1/1/11 10.8 1/1/11 501.6
1/1/12 10.7 1/1/12 512.2
100
1/1/13 10.5 1/1/13 520.1
1/1/14 10.4 1/1/14 527.4
0 0
1/1/15 10.2 1/1/15 533.8
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1/1/16 10 1/1/16 540.2
1/1/17 9.8 1/1/17 546.4
1/1/18 9.7 1/1/18 552.5
1/1/19 9.5 1/1/19 558.6
Our world continues to become more energy was held flat at 2005 levels. In that case, 1/1/20 9.3 1/1/20 564.6
1/1/21 9.1 1/1/21 571.1
efficient. From 1980 to 2000, the energy it global energy demand in 2030 would not 1/1/22 9 1/1/22 577.6
1/1/23 8.8 1/1/23 584.2
took to produce one unit of GDP fell by an be almost 35 percent higher than in 2005, 1/1/24 8.7 1/1/24 590.9
average 1.2 percent a year. This occurred as we currently project; it would be about 1/1/25 8.5 1/1/25 597.7
XOMhigher.
Energy Outlook 1/1/26 8.4 1/1/26 603.7
for a number of reasons, including the use 95 percent Put another way, gains 1/1/27 8.2 1/1/27 609.8
For: GCG
of new, energy-saving technologies. in energy efficiency through
Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn2030 will curb
817-332-4600 1/1/28 8.1 1/1/28 615.9
12A XOMEO-EnergyPerGDP.ai
File name: 1/1/29 7.9 1/1/29 622.1
energy-demand growth through 2030 by 1/1/30 7.8 1/1/30 628.4
None
Placed file(s):
We expect efficiency gains to accelerate about 65 percent.
For page: 12 Last updated: 12/07/2009
between 2005 and 2030 versus historical Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
trends, with energy-per-GDP falling at an In this respect, the greatest
ZM GRAPHICS source
• 214-906-4162 of energy
• carol@zmgraphics.com
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
average global rate of 1.5 percent a year. in the future is finding ways to use energy
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
more efficiently. Taking sensible steps to improve
energy efficiency is a “triple win” –
This faster pace will be driven by higher energy
it saves money, reduces energy
costs, government mandates and regulations,
demand and curbs CO2 emissions.
technology advances and expected CO2
emissions costs in OECD countries.
Through 2030, the amount of

Improving efficiency at this rate will save a energy saved through improved
efficiency will be greater than the
significant amount of energy.
energy consumed from any single
supply source.
Through 2030, ExxonMobil expects global
energy demand to grow by an average
1.2 percent. To see how energy efficiency
works to curb energy-demand growth,
imagine if the world’s economies grew as
projected through 2030, but efficiency

12 exxonmobil.com
Growing global demand
Growing global demand By 2030,
energy demand in each sector will increase . . . . . . but increasing efficiencies power generation
will help mitigate growth
Quadrillion BTUs will account for

40
300

%
Power
Generation Data as of 10/28/2009
Power
Generation
“2005” “2030”
Transportation 89.2 121.8
Industrial 137.2 167.5
200 Res/Comm 74.9 83.2
Residential/ PowerGen 169.4 255.8
Industrial Commercial
ofTransportation
all energy Industrial Res/Comm
53.1 101.5 63.7
Transportation demand.
Residential/ Industrial
100
Commercial

Transportation

0
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2030 Energy Savings

Broken down by the four main end-use demand more than doubles through 2030
sectors, the biggest demand for energy and accounts for 80 percent of total growth
comes from electric power generation – a in electricity demand through 2030.
fact that might surprise some people, who
may think that transportation is the largest. Anyone asking how the world will meet XOM Energy Outlook
For: GCG
Transportation is, in fact, in third place its energy and environmental goals must Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
behind industrial demand, which represents consider electric power generation; by File name: 13A XOMEO-GlblDmnd
the energy used for manufacturing, 2030, this sector alone will account for Placed file(s): None
For page: 13 Last updated:
steelmaking and other industrial purposes. about 40 percent of total primary energy
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
Residential/commercial demand is the demand, and its largest energy source ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zm
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
smallest sector. will continue to be coal, the fuel with the
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
highest carbon intensity.
Power generation is not only the largest
energy-demand sector, but also the In each sector, demand would be growing
fastest-growing. Through 2030, this sector much faster without improvements in
represents 55 percent of the total growth efficiency. Efficiency improvements in each
in energy demand. sector will add up to significant energy
savings each year – reaching 300 quadrillion
The story behind the remarkable increase BTUs in 2030.
in demand for energy for power generation
is not just the high-tech demands of
the developed world, but also the more
basic needs and economic growth of the
developing world. Non-OECD electricity

Rising living standards in non-OECD


countries will create new demands
for energy through 2030.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 13


Residential /commercial demand
Residential/commercial demand
by sector residential residential energy use
Quadrillion BTUs Billion Households Millions of BTUs per Household
120 3.0 80

70 OECD
Residential
100 2.5

60

80 2.0
50

60 1.5 40 Non-OECD

Non-OECD 30
40 Commercial 1.0

20

20 0.5
10
OECD
0 0 0
2005 2030 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030

In the residential/commercial sector – biomass – fuels like wood and dung – will
the energy we use in our homes and retain a substantial share of supply, mainly in
businesses – residential demand dominates, the non-OECD.
Data as of 11/23/2009 Data as of 10/28/2009
XOM Energy Outlook
at about three times bigger than commercial.
For: GCG
“2005”
This trend continues as demand “2030”
in this Note:/ Brian
Pat Gabriel In each
Wilburnsector, we
817-332-4600 have included "2005" "2030"
Residential 81.7 100.4 14A XOMEO-ResCommDemand.ai
File name: OECD 68.4 54.9
sector grows through 26.0
Commercial 2030. 36.8 “electricity” in the breakdown of demand by Non OECD 38.1 33.6
Placed file(s): None
fuel. Electricity, of course, is not a fuel in itself –
For page: 14 Last updated: 12/07/2009
Residential energy demand is tied closely Updated by:it must beZuber-Mallison
Carol generated by other energy sources
to the total number of households in the such as
ZM GRAPHICS coal and natural
• 214-906-4162 gas. But it is
• carol@zmgraphics.com important
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
world. Through 2030, we see the number of to recognize the share of total electricity that is There will be 900 million more households
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
households rising by 900 million, with nearly consumed by each end-use sector. in the world by 2030 – and they will need
energy for heating, cooking and appliances.
90 percent of that growth occurring
in non-OECD countries.

OECD countries today use substantially


more energy per household than non-OECD
countries. While that remains true in 2030, 3000 80
120
all around the world, households are growing Non OECD
“2030”
more efficient in their use of energy. Through 70
2500
2030,
100 the steepest decline in energy-per- OECD
“2005” 60
household will come from OECD countries,
2000
with
80 more modest rates of improvement in 50
non-OECD nations.
1500 40
60
A diverse mix of energy is used to meet
30
residential/commercial demand. Natural 1000
40
gas and electricity account for most of the 20
growth in this sector through 2030. But 500
20
10

14 exxonmobil.com 0 0
0
Residential Commercial
1/1/80
1/1/81
1/1/82
1/1/83
1/1/84
1/1/85
1/1/86
1/1/87
1/1/88
1/1/89
1/1/90
1/1/91
1/1/92
1/1/93
1/1/94
1/1/95
1/1/96
1/1/97
1/1/98
1/1/99
1/1/00
1/1/01
1/1/02
1/1/03
1/1/04
1/1/05
1/1/06
1/1/07
1/1/08
1/1/09
1/1/10
1/1/11
1/1/12
1/1/13
1/1/14
1/1/15
1/1/16
1/1/17
1/1/18
1/1/19
1/1/20
1/1/25
1/1/30 OECD Non OECD
Global transportation demand
Global transportation demand Data fo

1/1/80
by sector personal vs. commercial 1/1/81
1/1/82
Millions of Oil-Equivalent Barrels per Day Millions of Oil-Equivalent Barrels per Day
1/1/83
70 25 1/1/84
Non-OECD 1/1/85
1/1/86
60 1/1/87
Rail
20 1/1/88
1/1/89
50
Marine 1/1/90
OECD
1/1/91
Aviation OECD 1/1/92
15
40 Commercial 1/1/93
1/1/94
1/1/95
Heavy-Duty 1/1/96
30 Vehicles 10 1/1/97
Non-OECD
1/1/98
20
1/1/99
1/1/00
5 1/1/01
Light-Duty 1/1/02
10 Personal
Vehicles 1/1/03
1/1/04
1/1/05
0 0
1980 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 1/1/06
Personal Commercial 1/1/07
1/1/08
1/1/09
1/1/10
Transportation is one of the fastest- but especially in personal vehicles, energy 1/1/11
1/1/12
growing energy demand sectors. It is also demand is higher in OECD countries today.
THESE DATA POINTS 1/1/13
the one associated most closely with oil. While, 1/1/14
MAY BE IN WRONG ORDER 1/1/15
for example,XOM Energy
we can Outlook
use many different fuels But through 2030, weDataseeasa of
significant
10/28/2009 1/1/16
For: GCG 1/1/17
to make electricity, the same
Pat Gabriel is not817-332-4600
/ Brian Wilburn true right shift. In the OECD, personal transportation
“Personal OECD” “Personal Non-OECD” 1/1/18
now for transportation;
File name: 15A XOMEO-TransDemand.ai
globally, 98 percent of demand is expected“2005”
to drop by 15053
25 percent 8529 1/1/19
Placed file(s): None “2030” 11283 4017 1/1/20
transportation runs on fuel made from oil. through 2030, while non-OECD demand 1/1/25
For page: 15 Last updated: 12/07/2009
“Comm OECD” “Comm Non-OECD” 1/1/30
more than doubles. “2005”
Why is this? First,
13359 11219
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
Historically, ZM
light-duty
GRAPHICS vehicles – cars,
• 214-906-4162 SUVs vehicle ownership is“2030”
• carol@zmgraphics.com closely tied16825
to personal 22953
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
and light pickup trucks – have been the income, and in OECD economies, vehicles-
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
largest sub-sector, but that is changing. per-capita is already high. So, better fuel
economy over time – enabled by greater
Through 2030, light-duty demand flattens penetration of conventional and advanced
as more efficient vehicles enter the market. technologies across the fleet – will more
Heavy-duty vehicles (trucks and buses) grow than offset additional demand created by
the most, the result of a number of factors, an increase in vehicles per capita. But in
including economic growth and the increased non-OECD countries, economic progress will
shipment of goods across and between be accompanied by rapid growth in vehicle
nations, and within local communities. ownership through 2030.

By 2030, heavy-duty vehicles will have Commercial transportation demand will


become the largest transportation grow in all regions, but far more rapidly in
demand segment; aviation and marine non-OECD countries. By 2030, these fast-
transport also grow significantly, reflecting developing nations will have overtaken the
global economic links. OECD as the largest source of commercial
transportation demand.
We can classify transportation into two basic
categories – personal and commercial. In both, Heavy-duty vehicles such as commercial trucks
will soon overtake personal vehicles as the largest
source of transportation-related energy demand.
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 15
A single-cell
oil well?

ExxonMobil believes that biofuels from photosynthetic • Algae-based biofuels likely would not impact the global
algae could someday play an important role in meeting the food supply. While biofuels made from plants like corn and
world’s growing need for transportation fuels, while also sugar cane are an expanding energy source, they require
reducing CO2 emissions. fertile land and fresh water; algae can be grown using land
and water unsuitable for plant or food production. Algae also
In July 2009, we announced a significant new project to research could yield between three and eight times more biofuel per
and develop algae biofuels. Our partner is Synthetic Genomics acre compared to other biofuel sources.
Inc (SGI), a California-based biotech firm founded by genome
research pioneer Dr. J. Craig Venter. The goal of the program: to Getting these algae fuels from the lab to broad, commercial
produce a commercially scalable, renewable algae-based scale at the local gas station will be a tremendous
fuel compatible with today’s gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. undertaking – and could require decades of work.

• Why algae? Scientists already know that certain algae It is an exciting project that brings together SGI’s expertise in
naturally produce oils similar to the petroleum products we genomics, synthetic biology, microbiology and biochemistry;
use today. If commercial quantities of these algae-based oils and ExxonMobil’s expertise in transportation fuels and the
could be developed, they could avoid the need to build the development of technologies and systems needed to increase
extensive new delivery infrastructure that some other alternative scale from concept phase to large-scale manufacturing.
transportation fuels might require.
ExxonMobil expects to spend more than $600 million on
• Algae-based biofuels have potential environmental this project if research and development milestones are met.
advantages. Through photosynthesis, algae absorb CO2 –
the main greenhouse gas – and convert it to useful products, ExxonMobil’s investment in algae-based fuels is just one part
like oils and oxygen. As a result, fuels made from algae could of our commitment to the breakthrough technologies and
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. integrated solutions that will be needed to address rising
demand for transportation fuels and other long-term challenges
illustrated in our Outlook for Energy.

16 exxonmobil.com
Personal vehicle fleet is growing
Personal vehicle fleet is growing
vehicle penetration fleet by car type
In Millions Million Cars
China
1500
Population 1250

Population

1200 1000 Advanced Data


Diesel
2000
900 750 2001
2002
Europe
OECD 2003
600 500
Population Population 2004
United States
2005
Population Gasoline
Population Cars 2006
300 Cars 250
Cars Cars 2007
Cars
2008
Cars
0 0
2009
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2010
2011
2012
To accurately estimate future demand for per-capita will be almost 10 times lower than
2013
light-duty transportation fuels, we need the United States’, with about eight vehicles 2014
to project the number of vehicles that for every 100 people. Data as of 10/28/2009
2015
will be on the world’s roads in 2030, and US 2005 231.9 294.9 2016
XOMPersonal
the types of fuels they will use. Energy Outlook US 2030
At the same time, the composition of the 274.6 344.1 2017
For: GCG
transportation demand is very sensitive to Wilburnglobal
Pat Gabriel / Brian vehicle fleet is expectedEurope
817-332-4600
OECD 2005 218.8
to change 531.8 2018
File name:
vehicle fleet size, which we forecast from 17A through 2030. Conventional gasoline OECD 2030 261.5
XOMEO-CarFleet.ai Europe 543.7 2019
Placed file(s): None China 2005 19.2 1307.8
income levels and vehicle penetration. vehicles will continue to be the majority, 2020
For page: 17 Last updated: 12/07/2009 China 2030 125.5 1475.9
followed by diesel. Hybrids and other 2025
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
In the United States, vehicle penetration
ZM GRAPHICS–• 214-906-4162
advanced vehicles will grow rapidly; we
• carol@zmgraphics.com
2030
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
the number of vehicles relative to population – estimate that by 2030 they will constitute
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
is quite high, at nearly 80 percent, reflecting approximately 15 percent of the total
the strong correlation between income and personal-vehicle fleet, compared to less
vehicle ownership. than 1 percent today.

Europe has a larger population than the The expanding market share of hybrids and
United States but a similar fleet size, other advanced vehicles, combined with
reflecting a much lower number of vehicles ongoing improvements to the fuel efficiency
per capita. of conventional vehicles, will combine
to curb growth in energy demand for
The picture in other areas can be very transportation through 2030.
different. For example, in China, rising
incomes will result in rapid growth in that
country’s personal-vehicle fleet through
China today has only about 27 vehicles
2030. Yet even in 2030, China’s vehicles- per 1,000 people, compared to 780 per
1,000 in the United States. Rising incomes
in China and other developing countries
will produce strong growth in the number
of global vehicles through 2030.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 17


Improving today’s vehicle
Improving today’s vehicle
improvement in mileage
Percent Improvement in Miles per Gallon

Engine

Transmission

Body and
Accessories

Total

0 5 10 15 20

Making vehicles more efficient is a goal of • For transmissions, increasing to a 6-speed


automakers, governments and consumers or higher transmission, or to a continuously
around the world. Many technologies already variable transmission, could increase miles
have been developed to substantially improve per gallon by another 5 percent to 10 percent.
the fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles.
These are not far-off innovations; they are • Potential improvements to the car body
available today, and there is a lot of positive and accessories include improving vehicle
news in this area. aerodynamics and reducing vehicle weight
through lightweight materials such as
• Improved engine-based technologies plastics. They also include tires that stay
can increase miles per gallon by about inflated longer and higher-efficiency air-
15 percent versus today’s conventional conditioner compressors. Together, these
gasoline vehicles. For example, engines technologies could produce a 10 percent to
can be made more efficient via 15 percent improvement in fuel efficiency.
turbocharging, cylinder deactivation
and camless valves.

18 exxonmobil.com
Aerodynamics Lightweight
Materials

Turbocharging

Cylinder
Deactivation

Improved Tires

Camless
Valves

Continuously
Variable
Transmission
Air Conditioning
Efficiency
6 Speed
and
7 Speed

25 30 35

When we combine all these improvements Our view is that compared to hybrids, plug-
to conventional vehicles, we see an overall in hybrids or electric vehicles, improvements
potential increase in miles per gallon of to conventional vehicles will likely be a more
about 35 percent. cost-effective approach for improving light-
duty vehicle efficiency through 2030. It’s a
While these technologies are available today, matter of affordability and scale – making
some have not yet been widely utilized incremental and economical improvements
because of cost or other issues. We expect, to the millions of conventional cars that
however, that this will change as automakers make up the vast majority of new-car sales
seek to ramp up fleet efficiencies to meet is expected to have a greater overall impact
mandates. than revolutionary and costly changes in
new cars with technologies that as of yet
have not proven capable of significantly
penetrating the market.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 19


Thinking outside
the tank

ExxonMobil’s interest in cars and trucks goes far beyond the energy is required to circulate the oil in the engine. Mobil AFE
fuel tank. Using our expertise not only in fuels and lubricants, can improve fuel economy by up to 2 percent versus motor oils
but also in chemicals and plastics, we are advancing new most commonly used.
technologies to make vehicles more fuel efficient.
Conventional vehicle efficiency improvements will be a key in These ExxonMobil technologies may not get much notice from
reducing the demand for personal transportation fuel demand drivers, but they can add up to significant fuel savings. For
in the OECD by 2030. example, if all vehicle tires on the road in the United States retained
air pressure as well as tires made with our new technology, it
Some of our technologies are already on the road. For example: would save more than 700 million gallons of fuel annually.

• Working with major tire manufacturers, ExxonMobil By enabling cars and trucks to travel farther on a gallon of fuel,
developed a new tire-lining technology that uses up to 80 drivers not only spend less money per mile, they also emit
percent less material in the manufacturing process, making tires less CO2 per mile.
lighter and keeping them properly inflated. A car with under-
inflated tires burns up to an extra tank of gasoline every year. Reducing emissions associated with transportation is one of the
key long-term challenges outlined in The Outlook for Energy. In
• ExxonMobil has developed lightweight plastics for car the United States, transportation accounted for 33 percent of all
parts such as bumpers and fuel tanks. Lighter vehicles use energy-related CO2 emissions in 2008, second only to electric
less fuel; for every 10 percent drop in vehicle weight, fuel power generation, according to the Department of Energy.
economy improves by 7 percent. ExxonMobil is a leading
supplier of polyolefinic polymers used in the manufacture of In addition to technologies available today, ExxonMobil
plastic car parts. also is researching advanced engine technologies that
could make the internal-combustion engine more efficient,
• We introduced Mobil 1 Advanced Fuel Economy, a and developing innovations that could advance hybrid and
lower-viscosity synthetic motor oil. Lower viscosity means less hydrogen-powered vehicles.

20 exxonmobil.com
Global industrial demand
Global industrial demand
by sector by region by fuel Data as o
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Oil
1/1/80 46.8
120 Heavy 250 250
Industry
1/1/81 43.9
1/1/82 42.7
1/1/83 41.9
100 1/1/84 42.5
200 200
1/1/85 42.4
Electricity/ 1/1/86 43.5
Heat 1/1/87 44.5
80
Biomass 1/1/88 45.9
150 150
1/1/89 46.4
Non-OECD Coal 1/1/90 44.8
60
Chemical 1/1/91 45.1
1/1/92 45.3
Energy 100 100
1/1/93 44
40 Industry Gas 1/1/94 45.1
1/1/95 46.4
1/1/96 47.8
50 50
20 Other 1/1/97 49.2
OECD Oil 1/1/98 48.3
1/1/99 49.6
1/1/00 49.9
0 0 0 1/1/01 51
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
1/1/02 51.4
1/1/03 52.6
1/1/04 54.5
1/1/05 55.2
The industrial sector is the second-largest 2005 to 2030, with China making up 1/1/06 56.6
demand sector, behind power generation. In about 35 percent of that increase. This is 1/1/07 56.2
1/1/08 55.2
2005, it accounted for nearly 30 percent of consistent with the robust economic growth 1/1/09 54.7
global energy usage. and continued industrialization of the 1/1/10 55.3
1/1/11 55.9
XOM Energy Outlook developing world. 1/1/12 56.7
For: GCG
Heavy industryPatand chemicals
Gabriel make
/ Brian Wilburn up the
817-332-4600 1/1/13 57.4
21A XOMEO-IndustrialDemand.ai 1/1/14 57.9
majority ofFile name:
industrial demand. These two Meanwhile,
Data OECD industrial energy demand
as of 12/02/2009 1/1/15 58.4
None
Placed file(s): 1/1/16 58.8
sub-sectors will account for 90 percent of the is projected to be down slightly from 2005
For page: 21 Last updated: 12/07/2009 "2005" "2030" 1/1/17 59.2
growth in industrial demand through
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
2030, to 2030, Heavy
despite
Inda near-term
79.2 recovery in
110.7 1/1/18 59.6
Chem 38.2 54.4 1/1/19 59.9
which is theZMresult of economic
GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162expansion, demand following the recession. This decline
• carol@zmgraphics.com
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc. Energy Ind 36.9 37.6 1/1/20 60.3
concentrated in non-OECD countries. will be driven
Otherby several14.4
factors: relatively
18.5 1/1/25 62.7
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil 1/1/30 65.3
mature economies, ongoing efficiency gains
The next largest sub-sector is the energy and a decline in heavy manufacturing as a
industry. Here, energy usage stays about percentage of OECD economies.
flat through 2030, even as demand for
the industry’s products is projected to Broken down by energy type, oil remains the
grow substantially. This achievement is the largest industrial fuel through 2030 due to
result of ongoing efficiency improvements growing non-OECD demand. We see natural
throughout the industry and a reduction in gas and electricity gaining share while coal
natural gas “flaring.” declines, reflecting the shift to less-carbon-
intensive energy sources.
Broken down by country group, industrial
energy demand increases by nearly
60 percent in non-OECD countries from

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 21


Managing
emissions

ExxonMobil is successfully reducing emissions from its new facilities under construction, we expect to increase our
own operations. In 2008, we achieved a global reduction of cogeneration capacity to more than 5 gigawatts by 2011.
10 million metric tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – about
a 7 percent decline from 2007. • Flare Reduction. Across our operations, we are working
to reduce flaring of gas that has no economic outlet as
We reduce emissions by increasing efficiency in our day-to- well as gas that is flared as a result of maintenance or
day operations, using new energy efficiency technologies and unexpected operating events. In 2008, we reduced upstream
reducing flaring. flaring by about 30 percent, and we plan further reductions
of more than 20 percent over the next several years
• Efficiency. Since the launch of our Global Energy compared to 2008 levels.
Management System in 2000, ExxonMobil has identified
opportunities to improve efficiency by 15 percent to 20 percent at Since 2004, we have invested more than $1.5 billion in
our refineries and chemical plants. We have already implemented activities to increase efficiency and reduce emissions. We plan
about 60 percent of these. Over the past several years, efficiency to spend at least $500 million more over the next few years.
at our refining and chemicals operations has improved at a rate
two to three times faster than the industry average. ExxonMobil believes that energy efficiency is the most powerful
tool for meeting the central challenge outlined in The Outlook
• Cogeneration. ExxonMobil continues to expand its use of for Energy: how to meet rising demand for energy while also
cogeneration – a process in which we produce electricity to reducing the impact of energy use on the environment.
power our operations while also capturing heat to make steam
needed to transform raw materials into consumer products. In addition to improving efficiency and reducing emissions
ExxonMobil is an industry leader in this highly efficient form at our own operations, ExxonMobil also is developing
of energy production, with interest in about 100 cogeneration technologies to help consumers do the same. This is
facilities in more than 30 locations worldwide. In 2008, we important because while about 10 percent of petroleum-
added 125 megawatts of power capacity, with the startup related greenhouse gas emissions are from industry
of new facilities at our refinery in Antwerp, Belgium. With operations, 90 percent are from consumer use of petroleum.

22 exxonmobil.com
Data as of 10/28/2

1218
1279
1354
1414
1488
1583
1671
1768
1851
1935
2026
2116
2165
2248
2344
2437
2544
2657
2764
Com
1740
1788
1846
1929
2023
2102
2187
2294
2379
2456
2591
2692
2756
2902
2996
3104
3239
3293
3427
Res
Electricity use is growing rapidly

1/1/80
1/1/81
1/1/82
1/1/83
1/1/84
1/1/85
1/1/86
1/1/87
1/1/88
1/1/89
1/1/90
1/1/91
1/1/92
1/1/93
1/1/94
1/1/95
1/1/96
1/1/97
1/1/98
Electricity use is growing rapidly
by sector by region by generation
Thousands of Terrawatt Hours Thousands of Terrawatt Hours Thousands of Terrawatt Hours
30 30 30

Transportation

25 25 25

Other Other Gas


Industry 1/1/80
20 20 20 1/1/81
1/1/82
Other 1/1/83
Heavy Asia Pacific
Industry 1/1/84
15 15 15 1/1/85
Coal 1/1/86
China
1/1/87
1/1/88
Other Oil 1/1/89
10 10 Non-OECD 10 1/1/90
Commercial Asia Pacific 1/1/91
Nuclear 1/1/92
Europe 1/1/93
40%
5 5 5 1/1/94
OECD 1/1/95
Residential 1/1/96
United States Renewables
1/1/97
0 0 0 1/1/98
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1/1/99
1/1/00
1/1/01
1/1/02
Is unit correct?? 1/1/03
Growing demand for electricity, and the fuels ones that seek to reduce emissions by 1/1/04
1/1/05
1098.9
1164.7

1313.7
1371.3
1524.6

1519.6
1529.6
1570.5
1636.2
1722.8
1780.7
1919.5

2238.4

2475.4
2616.8
2752.3
2947.1
3109.8
3247.3
3541.6
3633.3
3584.4
3790.8
3972.1
4182.1
4347.6
4503.7
4645.2
4826.4
5007.6
5192.4

5581.3
6590.7
7643.8
1/1/06
887.4
915.4
944.7
987.2

used for power generation, is a major trend putting a cost on carbon emissions.
1212

1488

2042

2323

5380
Gas

1/1/07
XOM Energy Outlook 1/1/08
of the last 25 years, and will remain so for the 1/1/09
For: GCG
2664.7

2761.5
2878.7

3116.3
3205.1
3390.7
3498.5
3556.8
3805.4
3920.2
3977.8
4053.6
4174.6

4488.9
4621.5
4700.1
4818.1

5217.8
5438.4
5821.7
5998.3
6344.1
6718.6

7218.8
6793.3
6935.8
7125.2
7342.8
7490.9
7598.8
7718.6
7815.4
7882.2
7950.2
8018.5
8081.1
8449.6
8815.8
2708

2982

4287

5164

7158
nextPat25Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600 1/1/10
Coal

years as living standards continue By 2030, we expect that 40 percent of the 1/1/11
File name: 23A XOMEO-ElectricityUse.ai 1/1/12
to improve worldwide and more people gain world’s electricity will be generated by
1302.4
1256.3
1163.9
1131.5
1106.1
1003.8
1016.6

1025.1
1004.1

1057.1
1046.8
1058.8
1079.6
1059.1
1022.9
1001.2

1020.8
1026.5
Placed file(s): None 1/1/13
995.7

924.2
933.3

999.5

967.2
960.1
945.4
838.9
846.7
851.2
847.8
853.5
860.8
873.6
879.5
885.2
890.3
893.3
893.2
933.2
978.4
1181
1015

1/1/14
981

992

access to 23
electricity. Last updated: 12/07/2009 nuclear and renewable fuels.
Oil

For page: 1/1/15


1/1/16
1123.8
1328.5
1431.1

1707.8
1734.1
1825.3
1837.3
1888.5
1935.4
2008.5
2081.4
2067.7
2106.9
2183.6

2299.4
2304.6
2288.1
2371.4
2394.3
2419.1
2378.5
2377.9
2398.4
2444.1
2523.2
2599.5
2666.1
2751.5
2816.9
2887.8

3151.2
3240.3
3790.5
4338.9
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
635.7
753.7
812.9
922.1
Nuclr

1557
1693

2235

2980
3063
1/1/17
ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com 1/1/18
Power generation is the largest energy-
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
Projecting the future mix of fuels for power 1/1/19
Renew
1554.3
1598.6

1710.7
1780.6
1804.2
1846.8
1860.5
1925.7
1937.8
1995.2
2043.1
2051.2

2185.6
2289.4
2326.3
2370.7
2384.2
2409.2
2479.7

2529.1
2569.9
2737.6
2865.5
3001.4
3091.6
3253.2
3256.6
3402.5
3548.2

3884.4
4053.9

4565.6
4748.6
4928.2
5115.5
5919.5
6754.2
demand sector and the fastest-growing, generation is a complex task with many 1/1/20
1639

2156

2460

3719

4220
4391
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil 1/1/25
rising at an average of approximately 1.7 1/1/30
variables. As part of this process, we must
1/1/80
1/1/81
1/1/82
1/1/83
1/1/84
1/1/85
1/1/86
1/1/87
1/1/88
1/1/89
1/1/90
1/1/91
1/1/92
1/1/93
1/1/94
1/1/95
1/1/96
1/1/97
1/1/98
1/1/99
1/1/00
1/1/01
1/1/02
1/1/03
1/1/04
1/1/05
1/1/06
1/1/07
1/1/08
1/1/09
1/1/10
1/1/11
1/1/12
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1/1/15
1/1/16
1/1/17
1/1/18
1/1/19
1/1/20
1/1/25
1/1/30
percent a year and will account for about consider how these fuels will compete
40 percent of all energy demand, up from economically, because these are the real-life
36 percent in 2005 and 26 percent in 1980. factors that utilities and power generators By 2030, about 40 percent of the
This will support strong increases in global look at when considering which fuels to use world’s electricity will be generated
electricity demand, which will be about four or what types of new power plants to build. by nuclear and renewable fuels.
times higher than 1980.

Electricity demand rises at a much faster rate


in non-OECD countries, reflecting their faster
economic growth and relatively low electricity
penetration to date.

What fuels will be used to generate this


electricity? Through 2030, there is a shift
away from coal toward natural gas, as well
as to nuclear and renewable fuels. This will
be driven by environmental policies, including

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 23


Electricity generation cost
Electricity generation cost
U.S. baseload plants, startup 2025
“Baseload plants” are electric power plants that run continuously to meet minimum electricity demand requirements while peaking power plants
run intermittently to meet seasonal and daily peak electricity demand.
Cost per Kilowatt Hour in 2009 Cents
20 20 20 XOM
No CO2 Cost At $30 per Ton At $60 per Ton For: GC
Pa
File nam
15 15 15 Placed f

For page

Updated
ZM GR
10 10 10

Usage: U

5 5 5

0 0 0
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind* Coal/ Gas/ Solar* Coal Gas Nuclear Wind* Coal/ Gas/ Solar* Coal Gas Nuclear Wind* Coal/ Gas/ Solar*
CCS** CCS** CCS** CCS** CCS** CCS**

* Wind and solar exclude additional costs for intermittency and transmission investments ** With carbon capture and storage technology

In the United States, absent any policies Carbon capture and storage (CCS), a
that impose a cost on CO2 emissions, we process in which CO2 emissions are
would expect coal and natural gas to be the captured before they can enter the
lowest-cost options for future, new-build atmosphere, holds promise in the future.
power plants. However, even with CO2 emissions priced
Data as of 10/28/2009
at $60 per ton, new-build plants with CCSGas
Coal Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS G
But policies that impose a costLow, no CO2
on carbon remain2009cents/kWh 4.71
challenged and very expensive – 5.48 7.16 6.59 9.21 8
would sway these economics. Delta, no CO2
Coal, being 2009cents/kWh
meaning 1.82of
a less affordable source 1.84 1.26 1.84 2.2 2
30$/ton
the most carbon-intensive fuel, would electricity for consumers. This high cost,
Low, with CO2 2009cents/kWh 7.08 6.54 7.16 6.59 9.49 8
increase in price more than natural gas. combined with the need to build a regulatory
Delta, with CO2 2009cents/kWh 1.82 1.84 1.26 1.84 2.2 2
At $30 per ton of CO 2, natural 60$/Ton
gas would framework for CO2 storage, presents
become the most economic alternative
Low, withfor
CO2 significant challenges for its use
2009cents/kWh over the 7.6
9.46 7.16 6.59 9.77 8
new-build power plants. This isDelta,
where with
weCO2 next two 2009cents/kWh 1.82
decades beyond government- 1.84 1.26 1.84 2.2 2
expect CO 2 costs may evolve over the subsidized demonstration projects.
next 10 years.
Likewise, solar energy faces significant
As the CO2 price increases, we would expect hurdles to becoming economically
to see fuel switching from coal to natural competitive in this time frame. The cost of
gas. This will happen by running existing capturing solar energy in photovoltaic cells or
natural gas plants at higher load factors, as concentrators remains generally unaffordable
well as by building new natural gas plants for large, commercial applications.
and retiring old coal plants.

At $60 per ton, natural gas is still very


competitive. In addition, nuclear and wind are Climate policies that put a “cost”
now competitive, which is why we include on CO2 emissions will shift the
strong growth for both in our Outlook. economics of fuels used for power
generation. Natural gas, nuclear
and wind stand to benefit.

24 exxonmobil.com
Data fo
O
1/1/80 1

Global energy demand and supply


1/1/81 1
1/1/82 1
1/1/83 1

Global energy demand and supply


1/1/84 1
1/1/85 1
1/1/86 1
1/1/87 1
1/1/88 1
1/1/89 1
by sector by energy type 1/1/90 1
1/1/91 1
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 1/1/92 1
1/1/93 1
700 700 1/1/94 1
Wind, Solar, Biofuels 1/1/95 1
Hydro, Geo 1/1/96 1
600 600 1/1/97 1
1/1/98 1
Residential/ 1/1/99 1
Biomass 1/1/00 1
Commercial
500 500 Nuclear 1/1/01 1
1/1/02 1
1/1/03 1
Industrial 1/1/04 1
400 400 Coal
1/1/05 1
1/1/06 1
1/1/07 1
300 300
1/1/08 1
Transportation 1/1/09 1
Gas 1/1/10 1
1/1/11 1
200 200 1/1/12 1
1/1/13 1
1/1/14 1
1/1/15 1
100 Power Generation 100 Oil 1/1/16 1
1/1/17 1
1/1/18 1
1/1/19 1
0 0
1/1/20 1
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030
1/1/25 1
1/1/30 2

Through 2030, the global energy-demand will remain relatively small at about 2.5 percent

Res/Comm
Data for left chart as of 10/28/2009
picture is clear: Expansion and progress, of total energy.
particularly in non-OECD countries, will boost

58.1
57.7
57.9
58.1
59.9
61.1
61.5
62.4
63.7

64.1
65.4

66.6
65.8
67.1
69.8
68.7
67.3

69.8
70.6
71.1
73.3
74.2
74.9
64

65

69
the need forXOM Energy
energy Outlook
in all four end-use sectors – No single fuel can meet our energy challenges.

110.1
106.3
103.6
103.4
108.1
108.8
110.2
114.1
117.9
118.9
113.1
112.7
111.6
109.9
112.1
117.4
119.5
121.7
120.7
120.1
121.9
120.9
122.5
127.7
134.2
137.2
For: GCG
power generation, transportation, industrial To satisfy projected increases in global energy
Ind
Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
File name: 25A XOMEO-TransDemand.ai
and residential/commercial. Even assuming demand to 2030 – and ensure reliable and
PowerGen Trans
51.9
51.6
51.5
52.1
53.6
54.7
56.8
58.8
61.4
63.1
64.2
64.9
66.2
67.1
68.6
70.5
72.2
73.9
75.8
77.9
79.4
79.8
81.5
83.4
87.1
89.2
Placedin
significant gains file(s): None this will stack up to
efficiency, affordable energy to help meet our interlocking
For page: 25 Last updated: 12/07/2009
a significant increase in global energy demand social, economic and environmental challenges –
Carol Zuber-Mallison

103.2
108.1
117.9
121.1
122.3
123.5
124.8
127.6
131.8
133.4
136.4
139.4
143.3

149.4
155.3
163.2
169.4
Updated by:
76.2
77.8
78.8
82.2
86.9
91.1
94.2
98.9
to 2030 – anZMaverage 1.2 percent a• year. we will need to expand all economic fuel sources

146
GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 carol@zmgraphics.com
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
through 2030.
1/1/80
1/1/81
1/1/82
1/1/83
1/1/84
1/1/85
1/1/86
1/1/87
1/1/88
1/1/89
1/1/90
1/1/91
1/1/92
1/1/93
1/1/94
1/1/95
1/1/96
1/1/97
1/1/98
1/1/99
1/1/00
1/1/01
1/1/02
1/1/03
1/1/04
1/1/05
What types Usage: Unlimited within
of supplies will ExxonMobil
we use to meet this
rising need for energy through 2030? Technology will play a key role. Many do not
realize that energy already is a high-tech
ExxonMobil scientists and engineers use
Fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – will industry. New innovations and improvements 3-D seismic technology to locate oil and
continue to meet most of the world’s needs in energy technology continue to advance the natural gas deposits with greater accuracy
during this period, because no other energy potential for all sources of energy. and a smaller environmental footprint.
sources can match their availability, versatility,
affordability and scale. The fastest-growing
of
700these fuels will be natural gas, because 700
it is the cleanest-burning. By 2030, global Res/Comm
600
demand for natural gas will be more than
600
55 percent higher than it was in 2005. Industrial
500 power will also grow significantly to
Nuclear 500
support increasing needs for power generation. Transportation
400 400
Wind, solar and biofuels will grow sharply PowerGen
300 2030, at nearly 10 percent per year on
through 300

average. However, because they are starting


200
from a small base, their contribution by 2030 200

100 100
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 25
Global energy demand and supply
Global energy demand and supply Oil and natural gas
demand and supply remain essential
Annual
Quadrillion BTUs
300
Energy
Savings
through 2030,
Data as of 10/28/2009
Oil Non-
but the most
By Fuel "2005" "2030"
Average
250 OECD Oil 171.1 206.9
Growth Rate
Per Year
important “fuel”
Coal 112.3 127
0.8% Gas 100.4 156.9
200
Total
of all will be 45.1
Biomass 51.2
Gas Energy Nuclear 28.6 50.9
1.8% Growth energy
Hydro, Geo saved11.8 20.1
150 Coal Wind, Solar, Biofuels 1.5 15.4
0.5%
OECD through
Total Energyimproved
Growth 157.6
Energy Savings
100
Non-
efficiency.
Biomass Nuclear OECD
0.5% 2.3%
50 Wind, Solar,
Hydro, Geo
Biofuels
2.2%
9.6%

0
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005-2030 2030

Today, fossil fuels provide the majority of Total global energy demand through 2030
the world’s energy, led by oil and then coal is expected to rise by about 160 quadrillion
and natural gas. Biomass and nuclear BTUs. All of this growth will occur in non-
come next, followed by hydroelectric and OECD countries; OECD demand is expected
geothermal power. Wind, solar and biofuels to be slightly lower in 2030 versus 2005. XOM Energy Outlook
For: GCG
combine for a very small share. Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
File name: 26A XOMEO-GlblDmndSu
Through 2030, the most important “fuel”
Placed file(s): None
In 2030, fossil fuels remain the of all will be the energy saved through
For page: 26 Last updated: 12
predominant energy sources, accounting improvements in energy efficiency. Energy Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
for nearly 80 percent of demand. Oil still saved through efficiency gains will ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgra
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
leads, but natural gas moves into second reach about 300 quadrillion BTUs per
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
place on very strong growth of 1.8 percent year by 2030, which is about twice
a year on average, particularly because the growth in global energy demand
of its position as a favored fuel for power through 2030. Most of the energy saved
generation. through efficiency will be in OECD countries.

Other energy types – particularly nuclear, ExxonMobil has partnered


with the National Community
wind, solar and biofuels – will grow sharply,
Action Foundation to help
albeit from a smaller base.
low-income Americans
save money and energy by
Other reputable sources, including the weatherizing their homes
U.S. government’s Energy Information through the U.S. Department

Administration and the International of Energy’s Weatherization


Assistance Program.
Energy Agency, share a similar view of
this supply picture.

26 exxonmobil.com
The importance of
natural gas
Natural gas will provide a growing share of the world’s energy
through 2030. Affordable and abundant, natural gas can help
provide the energy needed for economic and social progress.
And because it burns cleaner than oil and much cleaner
than coal, natural gas is a powerful tool for reducing the
environmental impact of energy use.

ExxonMobil produces more natural gas than any other public


company in the world. We also develop breakthrough
natural gas technologies that make more of this cleaner-
burning fuel available to consumers around the world.

In the United States, ExxonMobil technologies have unlocked


vast new resources of natural gas that previously were
trapped in dense rock formations, as well as other types of
so-called “unconventional” natural gas. These technologies cargo than conventional LNG carriers, reducing transportation
have resulted in a significant upswing in U.S. natural gas costs while improving efficiency and reducing emissions.
production, and may have similar applications in other parts
of the world. • We are building state-of-the-art LNG receiving terminals in
the United State and Europe. In 2009, off the coast of Italy, we
• Our Multi-Zone Stimulation Technology (MZST) allows opened the world’s first offshore gravity-based structure
operators to create fractures in reservoir rock at a more rapid for unloading, storage and re-gasification of LNG. The terminal’s
rate than conventional technology so gas can flow more main structure rests on the seabed in 95 feet of water, about 10
easily. Using MZST and our Fast Drill Process, ExxonMobil miles offshore, and out of sight of land.
is increasing recovery and production rates while reducing
development costs and our environmental footprint. • ExxonMobil, together with its partners, is producing nearly
35 million tons per year of LNG. We anticipate increasing our
• ExxonMobil has joined with Qatar Petroleum and other joint production to almost 65 million tons per year by 2010. And
partners to further develop Qatar’s North Field, the largest beyond 2010, we expect this to go up to around 100 million
non-associated natural gas field in the world. There, we tons per year.
plan to develop natural gas resources exceeding 150 trillion
cubic feet, which will serve a global customer base. The most significant single use of natural gas is as a fuel to
make electricity. As The Outlook for Energy shows, the world’s
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): ExxonMobil is a global leader in need for electricity – and the fuels used to produce it – will grow
developing and delivering advanced LNG technologies. These substantially over the coming decades. Natural gas can help
breakthroughs are creating a “global gas market” that can link meet this growing need for electricity.
the world’s largest natural gas reserves, such as those in Qatar,
with consumers who need them. Natural gas used for electricity can reduce CO2 emissions by
up to 60 percent versus coal, which today is the most popular
• ExxonMobil helped pioneer a new class of LNG carriers. fuel for power generation. It also has fewer emissions of sulfur
These ships, called Q-Max, can carry up to 80 percent more oxides and nitrogen oxides.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 27


Global liquids supply grows C+C Sands Cond. Biofuels

Global liquids supply grows 1/1/80


1/1/81
34646 163

Through 2030,
35378 146
4834
5054
51
57
1/1/80
1/1/81
1/1/82 36375 165 4997 82 1/1/82
1/1/83 37203 217 5139 107 1/1/83

global liquids supply and demand OPEC and non-OPEC


1/1/84
1/1/85
38733
39029
193
255
5164
5215
149
164
1/1/84
1/1/85
Millions of Oil-Equivalent Barrels per Day 1/1/86 39005 315 5370 152 1/1/86

120
sources will combine
1/1/87
1/1/88
39371
39285
334
369
5640
5963
168
172
1/1/87
1/1/88
1/1/89 38395 374 6107 175
to meet an expected
1/1/89
1/1/90 38533 344 6108 177 1/1/90

24
1/1/91 38072 350 6281 185 1/1/91

%
100 OPEC 1/1/92 36952 363 6625 188 1/1/92
2030
Adds Non- 1/1/93 36070 376 6963 197 1/1/93
OPEC 1/1/94 36627 396 7277 213 1/1/94
~37
1/1/95 36968 428 7674 220 1/1/95
80
~34 1/1/96 37942 443 7995 199 1/1/96
~28 1/1/97 38581 526 8202 205 1/1/97
Liquids Demand
1/1/98 38684 590 8378 211 1/1/98
~27 Biofuels
60 1/1/99 38672 568 8738 220 1/1/99
1/1/00 39493 608 9253 213
increase
1/1/00
OPEC Crude Other Petroleum
2005 1/1/01 39966 659 9409 233 1/1/01
Supplies 1/1/02 40829 741 9711 271 1/1/02
Canada Oil Sands
40 1/1/03
1/1/04 in liquid fuels
41492
41847
867
1002
9910
10501
335
380
1/1/03
1/1/04
1/1/05 41660 1002 11011 442 1/1/05

20
Non-OPEC Crude
and Condensate
1/1/06
1/1/07
41455
41520
demand.
1160
1215
11102
11405
587
754
1/1/06
1/1/07
1/1/08 41053 1222 12018 1012 1/1/08
1/1/09 40851 1250 12575 1085 1/1/09
1/1/10 40472 1300 13175 1234 1/1/10
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Base/Adds 1/1/11 40106 1400 13870 1310 1/1/11
1/1/12 39724 1430 14333 1389 1/1/12
1/1/13 39462 1510 14669 1461 1/1/13
1/1/14 39320 1550 15007 1534 1/1/14
1/1/15 39159 1650 15206 1612 1/1/15
The world’s liquid fuel supply consists mostly 1/1/16 39439 1860 15465 1661 1/1/16
1/1/17 39716 2010 15660 1712 1/1/17
of crude oil, but also includes condensate, Total liquids supply needed in 2030 is about 1/1/18 39846 2140 15924 1767 1/1/18
1/1/19 40176 2310 16112 1824 1/1/19
natural gas liquids and biofuels. Liquid fuels 20 MBDOE above 2005. This increase will 1/1/20 40401 2440 16401 1885 1/1/20
will be especially important for meeting be met by non-OPEC and OPEC liquids in 1/1/21 40825 2600 16573 1954 1/1/21
1/1/22 41067 2720 16762 2029 1/1/22
XOM Energy
projected strong growth inOutlook
transportation nearly equal share. 1/1/23 41160 2860 16985 2111 1/1/23
For: GCG 1/1/24 41283 2970 17204 2201 1/1/24
demand through
Pat 2030. Nearly
Gabriel / Brian all 817-332-4600
Wilburn the world’s 1/1/25 41354 3110 17584 2299 1/1/25
File name: 28A XOMEO-LiquidsSupplyGrows.ai 1/1/26 41468 3270 17852 2406 1/1/26
transportation runs on liquid fuels because Meeting this demand in an economic 1/1/27 41578 3430 18085 2525 1/1/27
Placed file(s):None
they provide a large quantity of energy in and environmentally sound manner is an 1/1/28 41624 3590 18284 2659 1/1/28
For page: 28 Last updated: 12/07/2009 1/1/29 41573 3740 18451 2811 1/1/29
small volumes, making them easy to transport
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
ongoing task of the global energy industry. 1/1/30 41681 3880 18648 2984 1/1/30

and widely available. It will require large investments to maximize


ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc. New technologies – such as floating offshore
yields from mature fields as they naturally 2005 Base Non OPEC
platforms that can reach crude oil located
OPEC
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil Base/Adds 84130 8594 11463
Through 2030, total liquids demand decline, and develop new sources of under thousands of feet of water – are helping
increases steadily to 104 MBDOE – about supplies in existing development areas as meet rising global demand for oil.

24 percent higher than in 2005. well as promising new regions.

To meet this demand, non-OPEC supplies


are projected to grow to about 67 MBDOE,
including about 3 MBD from biofuels. Gains
also are expected in “other” non-OPEC
petroleum, which includes natural gas liquids,
condensate, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids
and refinery gains.

The gap between non-OPEC supplies and


total liquids demand – known as the “call on
OPEC crude” – remains relatively flat in the
near term, but then expands to 37 MBDOE in
2030. This level is achievable, given OPEC’s
large resource base and continued investment.

28 exxonmobil.com
Natural gas supply and demand balance
Natural gas supply and demand balance
Data as o
United States Europe Asia Pacific
Conv Uncon
Billions of Cubic Feet per Day Billions of Cubic Feet per Day Billions of Cubic Feet per Day 46.58 8.28
42.34 9.17
120 120 120 43.58 10.24
41.16 11.05
39.34 12.17
36.72 13.3
100 100 100 34.9 14.56
36.2 17.66
35.17 20.24
30.89 21.26
LNG 30.41 20.67
80 80 80
30.13 21.07
Imports 27.96 22.78
LNG Imports 27.07 24.91
Pipeline 26.16 27.08
60 60 LNG 60 25.26 29.35
Pipeline
24.43 31.73
23.66 33.79
Unconventional 22.93 35.33
40 40 Pipeline Imports 40 Unconventional 22.24 36.56
23.81 37.44
23.84 38.02
Unconventional 24.43 38.4
Local Conventional Local
23.98 38.64
20 Production 20 20 Production
23.41 38.86
Local 22.87 39.1
Conventional Production
Conventional 22.37 39.34
21.89 39.57
0 0 0 21.44 39.8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 21 40
20.58 40.2

Natural gas will meet a growing share of In Europe, local natural gas production
our energy needs through 2030. Given its continues to decline, driving imports from
XOM Energy Outlook
abundance and properties as a clean-burning about 45 percent of total supply in 2005
For: GCG
Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600
fuel, expanded use of natural gas in power to about 70 percent in 2030. This shift will
29A XOMEO-GasSplyDmndBalance.ai
File name:
generation can serve economic progress and require growth in pipeline imports from Russia
Placed file(s):None
help advance environmental
For page: 29
goals as well. and Caspian countries as well as LNG.
Last updated: 12/07/2009
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com
Total natural gas demand in the United
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
In Asia Pacific, domestic natural gas
States and Europe will follow a similar production – unconventional in particular –
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
pattern – dipping in the near term because continues to climb, but at a slower pace
ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum’s
of the recession, and then growing than demand. As a result, Asia Pacific will
Q-Flex and Q-Max ships are fostering a
modestly through 2030. Growth averages need to rely more heavily on gas imports, new “global gas market” that can link the
about 0.8 percent per year. Asia-Pacific especially LNG, which will meet more than world’s largest natural gas reserves with
demand grows much more rapidly, at almost one-third of the region’s demand in 2030. the consumers who need them.
4 percent per year, with demand more than
doubling over the outlook period.

In terms of supply, an important development


has been the expansion of unconventional
natural gas – the result of recent improvements
in technologies used to tap these hard-to-
reach resources. This is particularly the case
in the United States, where it is expected to
satisfy more than 50 percent of demand by
2030. The growth in unconventional supplies
will moderate the need for liquefied natural
gas (LNG) imports in the United States in the
short term.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 29


128.1
123.5
120.5

122.1
121.9
125.5
128.2
132.8
134.7
136.6
137.6
139.1
138.8

144.2
147.8
150.8

155.4
156.4
157.7
159.3
162.6
168.3
Chart of left, Data

120

141

152
Oil
Coal
70.3
70.4
70.7
72.5
75.5
77.8
78.4
81.9
84.6
85.8
86.2
85.6

84.1
84.7
88.2
89.7
89.4

87.3
89.7
90.3
92.4
99.2
107
84

89
Global energy demand and CO2 emissions

1/1/80
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1/1/00
1/1/01
1/1/02
1/1/03
1/1/04
Global energy demand and CO2 emissions
energy supply CO2 emissions by sector CO2 emissions by fuel
Quadrillion BTUs Billion Tons Billion Tons
700 40 40
1.2% 0.9% 0.9%
Average Growth per Year Average Growth per Year Average Growth per Year
600 2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030 2005 – 2030

Other 30 Residential/ 30
500 Commercial Gas

Gas Transportation
400

20 20
Oil
300 Industrial

Oil
200
10 10

Power Generation Coal


100
Coal

0 0 0
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030

Rising emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse share as fuels for power generation.
gases pose significant risks to society and Natural gas used for power generation
ecosystems. Since most of these emissions can result in up to 60 percent less CO2
XOM Energy
are energy-related, Outlook approach
any integrated emissions than coal, currently the most
the GCG
to meeting For: world’s
Pat Gabriel /growing energy
Brian Wilburn needs
817-332-4600 widely used fuel for power generation.
30A XOMEO-DemandCO2.ai

3123
3086
3060
3079
3302
3400
3457
3622
3770
3974
4020
4169
4153
4211
4230
4368
4580
4667
4703
4856
4970
5004
5147
File name:
over the coming decades must incorporate
Gas
file(s): None
strategies toPlaced
curb emissions and address the Broken down by end-use sector, power
8566
8223
7982
7922
8000
7961
8185
8298
8574
8676
8787
8805
8859
8850
8925
9029
9215
9357
9460
9614
9636
9700
9740
For page: 30 Last updated: 12/07/2009
Oil

risk of climate change. These strategies will generation accounts for the largest
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
need to be implemented by both OECD and share of the growth in CO2 emissions
6923
6941
6966
7145
7446
7677
7736
8084
8344
8467
8527
8463
8315
8325
8381
8719
8870
8844
8799
8639
8883
8948
9149
Coal

ZM GRAPHICS • 214-906-4162 • carol@zmgraphics.com


(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
non-OECD countries. through 2030. This is not only because it is
1/1/80
1/1/81
1/1/82
1/1/83
1/1/84
1/1/85
1/1/86
1/1/87
1/1/88
1/1/89
1/1/90
1/1/91
1/1/92
1/1/93
1/1/94
1/1/95
1/1/96
1/1/97
1/1/98
1/1/99
1/1/00
1/1/01
1/1/02
Global CO2 emissions will rise by
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
the fastest-growing demand sector, but also
0.9 percent a year through 2030,
The outlook for energy-related CO2 emissions because it is the one that relies most heavily with emissions growing fastest in
is linked directly to the types and amounts of on coal. the power-generation sector.
energy required around the world. By 2030,
global CO2 emissions are likely to be about
25 percent higher than they were in 2005.

While this is a significant increase, it is


substantially lower than the projected
growth in energy demand over the period.
This positive development is the result of
expected gains in efficiency, as well as
a shift over time to a significantly less-
carbon-intensive energy mix – mainly
natural gas, nuclear and wind gaining

30 exxonmobil.com
Options for
carbon policy

ExxonMobil believes that the broad objective of actions encourages companies to invest in advanced technologies,
to address climate change should be to reduce the risk of and provides a clear incentive for all consumers to increase
serious impacts on society and the environment, while not efficiency and reduce emissions.
harming the contribution of energy to economic development
and expanded prosperity around the world. • A carbon tax avoids the costs and complexity of having
to build a new market for emissions allowances or the need
As a company with 125 years of experience developing the for new layers of regulators and administrators to manage
technology and infrastructure that delivers the world’s energy, this market. It also does not open up significant opportunities
we believe we have a unique perspective on what types for market manipulation, or require complex and costly
of conditions are necessary to successfully tackle such a compliance and enforcement systems.
complex global energy challenge.
• A carbon tax can be made revenue-neutral. Returning
Above all, companies, consumers and investors will need a the tax revenue to consumers through reductions in other
market environment that provides clear signals to encourage taxes – payroll taxes or a simple dividend – reduces the
sensible and broad-based investment in the two most burden on the economy, and ensures that government
powerful emissions-fighting tools: improvements to energy policy is specifically focused on reducing emissions, not on
efficiency and the expanded use of lower-carbon fuels such becoming a revenue stream for other purposes.
as natural gas. Continued progress on these fronts will require
trillions of dollars in new investment, and steadfast work on • Because global participation is so important to controlling
the creation of new technologies. emissions, a carbon tax may be a more viable framework for
engaging participation by other nations.
Some governments are considering policies that would
impose a “cost” on CO2 emissions. In these cases, As The Outlook for Energy shows, curbing greenhouse gas
ExxonMobil believes that a revenue-neutral carbon tax emissions while also meeting rising energy demand will
has many advantages over a cap-and-trade system in terms require a tremendous global effort, sustained over decades.
of achieving our society’s shared goal of reducing emissions Compared with a cap-and-trade system, a carbon tax – by being
over the long term: predictable, transparent, and comparatively simple to understand
and implement – is a more effective approach for creating the
• A carbon tax can create a clear and uniform cost for conditions necessary to achieve emissions-reduction goals.
emissions in all economic decisions. This price stability

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 31


CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions emissions per capita emissions per GDP
Tons per Thousand Dollars of GDP
Billion Tons Tons per Person
in 2005 Dollars
40 12 2.0
OECD

10
Non-OECD
30 1.5

Non-OECD
20 6 1.0

4
Non-OECD
10 0.5 OECD
2

OECD

0 0 0
1980 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030

Reducing emissions is a global priority. Yet higher per-capita energy use in that country
because different countries are at different group. By 2030, this gap shrinks, but remains
Please check units
stages in their economic development, significant – at about two and a half times
Data as of 10/28/2009 Data as of 10/28/2009
CO2 emissions patterns through 2030 vary higher. "2005' "2030" "2005" "2030"
XOM Energy
greatly between Outlook
OECD and non-OECD OECD 11.26 8.76 OECD 0.4083 0.2159
Non OECD 2.7 3.41 Non OECD 1.5554 0.7719
For: GCG
country groups.
Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600 When emissions are measured per unit of
File name: 32A XOMEO-CO2Emissions.aieconomic output, however, OECD nations
Placed file(s): None
Growth in CO2 emissions through 2030 have much lower levels. This is because
For page: 32 Last updated: 12/07/2009
will be dominated by China, India and the developed nations have relatively productive
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison Non-OECD countries account for all of
other non-OECD countries.
ZM GRAPHICS Non-OECD
• 214-906-4162 economies and are less energy-intensive. By
• carol@zmgraphics.com
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
the CO2 emissions growth through 2030,
emissions surpassed OECD emissions in 2030, this gap also shrinks, although OECD yet their per-capita emissions remain far
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
2004; by 2030, non-OECD countries will nations remain far less energy-intensive than lower than the OECD’s.
account for two-thirds of the global total. non-OECD countries.

Meanwhile, OECD emissions will decline


by about 15 percent, and by 2030 will be
down to 1980 levels.

When comparing the CO2 emissions of OECD


and non-OECD countries, several measures
can be used – producing very different results.
On a per-capita basis, 2005 emissions in
the OECD were about four times that of
non-OECD countries, consistent with the

32 exxonmobil.com
OECD transitions to lower emissions
OECD transitions to lower emissions
change in CO2 emissions improving energy efficiency and CO2 emissions
Billion Tons
3 Energy per GDP 12
Millions of BTUs
per Thousand
2 Dollars of GDP 10 1980

Increasing Efficiency
1 8
2005

0 6
2030

–1 4

–2 2

Reducing CO2 Content


–3 0
1980 – 2005 2005 – 2030 0 20 40 60 80
CO2 Content
Tons of CO2 per Million BTUs

As a result of ongoing efficiency improvements and power homes and businesses. Another
and a switch to less-carbon-intensive fuels is reducing CO 2 intensity – choosing fuels
such as natural gas, CO2 emissions in the that have lower CO 2 emissions.
OECD appear to have already peaked and
XOMlower
are set to trend Energy Outlook
through 2030. From 1980 to
Data2005, OECD2134
as of 10/28/2009 energy usage
"1980-2005"
For: GCG
Pat Gabriel / Brian Wilburn 817-332-4600 became both more efficient-2064
"2005-2030" and less carbon-
Absolute CO 33Ain
emissions
File name: XOMEO-ToLowerEmissions.ai
the OECD rose intensive. Through 2030, we see this positive
2

by about 2 Placed tonsNone


billionfile(s): from 1980 to 2005. trend continuing. Beyond 2030, further gains
For page: 33 Last updated: 12/07/2009
But from 2005 to 2030, we expect them are likely as OECD countries continue to
Updated by: Carol Zuber-Mallison
to fall by about 2 billion •tons,
ZM GRAPHICS and by
214-906-4162 2030 pursue efficiency and shift to less-carbon-
• carol@zmgraphics.com
(c) 2009, ZM Graphics Inc.
be back to about 1980 levels. This is a intensive fuels to help mitigate risks
Usage: Unlimited within ExxonMobil
noteworthy achievement considering that associated with CO2 emissions.
OECD economic output will have tripled over
the period and population will have grown by
about 30 percent. This proves it is possible
to achieve economic growth and also reduce
the impact of energy use on the environment.

How has this progress been achieved? To


curb CO 2 emissions and still meet rising
energy demand, we have two main tools.
One is improving energy efficiency – doing
the same or more with less energy by
employing advanced technologies and
making smart choices about how we use
energy to fuel vehicles, generate electricity

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 33


Integrated energy solutions

34 exxonmobil.com
By 2030, there will be more than 1 billion additional
people on the earth – in total, close to 8 billion
people, all seeking better living standards. Economic
expansion will be key to reducing poverty and
improving health and prosperity, and we expect
developing countries to expand their economies
rapidly toward that end. This will require reliable and
affordable energy, driving demand up by close to 35
percent versus 2005. At the same time, there is an
ongoing need to protect
the environment for future generations.

These interlocking challenges require an integrated set


of solutions. No single source of energy, sector of the
economy or segment of society can solve all of these
challenges. In our view, there are three key elements
related to energy:

• Accelerating gains in energy efficiency, which


conserves supplies, minimizes energy costs and
reduces the growth rate of both energy demand
and emissions
• Expanding the availability of reliable and affordable
energy supplies
• Developing and deploying technology to help
mitigate the growth of emissions associated
with energy use.

We believe it is prudent to pursue strategies that


address the long-term risks associated with rising
emissions, while keeping in mind the central
importance of energy to the economies of the world.
In this light, it is essential to consider and implement
policies with the lowest overall cost to society. This
requires economy-wide, predictable and transparent
costs to shape business and consumer plans and
investments. Global participation is also critical to
reducing costs and risks.

We must pursue each of these three elements with vigor


if we are to meet our global energy and environmental
challenges. Technology will, as it has in previous
decades, continue to play a critical role in enabling all
three of these areas.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 35


The Outlook for Energy through 2030 – key findings

Demand
Economic recovery and growth, coupled with rising • The most important “fuel” of all is energy efficiency.
populations and living standards, will push energy demand The energy saved by improved efficiency through 2030 is
up by 1.2 percent a year on average through 2030. larger than from any other single source, including oil.

• By 2030, global energy demand will be almost 35 percent Emissions


higher than in 2005. This assumes significant gains in Global CO 2 emissions will rise by an average 0.9 percent a
energy efficiency. Without efficiency improvements, year – a significant increase but substantially slower than
demand in 2030 could be about 95 percent higher. the pace of energy-demand growth because of improved
efficiency and a shift toward lower-carbon fuels.
• All the growth in demand through 2030 occurs in non-
OECD countries, where economies are growing most • Non-OECD countries account for all of the CO 2 emissions
rapidly. Non-OECD energy demand rises by more than growth through 2030, yet their per-capita emissions
60 percent; demand in OECD countries declines remain far lower than the OECD’s.
slightly even as their economies expand.
• CO 2 emissions in the United States and other OECD
• Power generation is the largest and fastest-growing countries are declining, even as their populations and
sector. By 2030, power generation will account for economies grow; by 2030, OECD emissions will be
40 percent of all energy demand. approaching 1980 levels.

• Demand for transportation fuels continues to increase, • Emissions grow fastest in the power-generation sector,
due largely to greater use of heavy-duty vehicles (trucks in part because it is the sector that relies most heavily
and buses). Demand for light-duty vehicles (cars and on coal.
SUVs) actually plateaus and declines toward 2030.
• Beyond 2030, further progress on emissions will require
Supply more aggressive gains in efficiency and/or the use
To meet demand through 2030, we will need to expand all of less-carbon-intensive fuels. New technologies will
economic energy sources. Demand will be strongest for fuels be essential on both fronts.
that can help reduce CO2 emissions, such as natural gas.
Improve efficiency. Expand energy supplies. Mitigate
• Oil remains the largest energy source through 2030, but emissions. Develop new technologies. Each of these
natural gas will move into second place ahead of coal. In solutions will be needed to meet our interlocking energy
2030, these three fuels will meet close to 80 percent of challenges through 2030 and beyond.
global energy needs.
The Outlook for Energy is available on our Web site at
• Natural gas will be the fastest-growing major fuel. www.exxonmobil.com.
By 2030, demand for natural gas will be more than
55 percent higher than in 2005. Technologies that
have unlocked “unconventional” gas will help satisfy
this demand.

• Nuclear and renewable fuels will see strong growth,


particularly in the power-generation sector. By 2030,
about 40 percent of the world’s electricity will be
generated by nuclear and renewable fuels.

36 exxonmobil.com
Glossary

ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy contains global


projections for the period 2005-2030. In the Outlook,
we refer to standard units for the measurement of energy:

BCFD. Billion cubic feet per day. This is used to measure


volumes of natural gas. One BCFD of natural gas can heat
approximately 5 million homes in the U.S. for one year. Six
BCFD of natural gas is equivalent to about 1 MBDOE.

BTU. British Thermal Unit. A BTU is a standard unit of


energy that can be used to measure any type of energy
source. It takes approximately 400,000 BTUs per day to
run the average North American household.

Gigawatt (GW). A unit of electric power, a gigawatt


is equal to 1 billion watts, or 1,000 megawatts. A
1-GW power plant can meet the electricity demand of
approximately 500,000 homes in the U.S.

MBDOE. Million barrels per day of oil-equivalent. This


term provides a standardized unit of measure for different
types of energy sources (oil, gas, coal, etc.) based on
energy content relative to a typical barrel of oil. One
MBDOE is enough energy to fuel about 3 percent of the
vehicles on the world’s roads today.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 37


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