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PostCivilWarEconomicDevelopmentinNepal

andSriLanka:ATaleofTortoiseandHare
MuttukrishnaSarvananthanPh.D.
PrincipalResearcher,PointPedroInstituteofDevelopment,
PointPedro,NorthernProvince.
APaperPresentedatthe13
th
AnnualSymposiumofthe
CentreforPovertyAnalysis,Colombo.
PostCivilWarNepalandSriLanka:A
ComparisonofKeyEconomicIndicators
Nepal
2006- 2010
SriLanka
2009- 2013
GDPGrowthRate(cumulative)
@currentprices
87.8 79.4
GDPGrowthRate(cumulative)
@constantprices
20.2 33.3
PerCapitaIncomeGrowthRate
@currentprices(cumulative)
78.5 79.1
PerCapitaGrowthRate
@constantprices(cumulative)
14.3 34.2
Inflation (+)1.6 (+)3.4
Unemployment (-)1.6 (-)1.4
Poverty (-)5.6 (-)2.2
PauseinCivilWaradPostCivilWarSriLanka:A
ComparisonofKeyEconomicIndicators
Economic
Growth
(cumulative)
@currentprices
PerCapita
Income
(cumulative)
Inflation Unemploym
ent
Poverty
2002-
2005
2009-
2012
2002-
2005
2009-
2012
2002-
2005
2009-
2012
2002-
2005
2009-
2012
2002-
2005
2009-
2012
East 44.6 69.6 176.8 21.3 N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A (-)3.5
North 68.5 95.9 N.A 72.9 N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A
Sri
Lanka
49.5 56.7 111.4 31.1 2.0 3.4 (-)1.6 (-)1.8 (-)7.5 (-)2.2
PostCivilWarSriLanka:AComparisonofCivil
WarAffectedandOtherProvinces
East North South West SriLanka
GrowthofPGDP
cumulative
2009-2012
69.6 95.9 71.4 48.5 56.7
GrowthofPer
CapitaIncome
HIES2009-2012
21.3 72.9 37.7 41.5 31.1
Growthof
Employment
LFS2010-2012
(-)0.8 8.0
(2011-2012)
3.3 2.6 5.5
Growthof
PovertyRatio
HIES2009-2012
Ampara(-)
6.4
Batticaloa(-)
0.9
Trincomalee-
2.7
Jaffna8.3%
Kilinochchi
12.7%
Mannar
20.1%
Mullaithivu
28.8%
Vavuniya
3.4%
Galle(-)0.4
Hambantota
(-)2.0
Matara(-)4.1
Colombo(-
2.2
Gampaha (-)
1.8
Kalutara (-)
2.9
(-)2.2
PostCivilWarSriLanka:AComparisonof
EconomicGrowthandEmploymentGrowth
EasternProvince
2010- 2012
NorthernProvince
2011- 2012
SouthernProvince
2010- 2012
Agriculture,
Forestry&
Fishery
EconGrowth
21.9 2.2 13.6
EmployGrowth
(-)1.4 (-)4.3 5.5
Manufacturing
EconGrowth
20.2 23.7 46.7
EmployGrowth
(-)2.3 49.4 (-)4.0
Construction,
Mining&Utilities
EconGrowth
52.3 56.6 39.5
EmployGrowth
4.9 5.3 37.1
Hotels&
Restaurants
EconGrowth
103.2 34.7 88.4
EmployGrowth
(-)33.3 (-)55.2 (-)25.5
Financial
Intermediation
EconGrowth
130.7 62.4 106.5
EmployGrowth
11.1 133.8 (-)3.2
PublicAdmin,
Defence,etc
EconGrowth
9.7 12.7 110.0
EmployGrowth
(-)12.4 10.4 16.1
CausesofCivilWar&PostCivilWar
RecoveryStrategy
CAUSES
Nepal underdevelopment
SriLanka land,language&politicalrights
STRATEGY
Nepal- constitutionalreform,truthand
reconciliation,etc
SriLanka economicdevelopment
PostCivilWarDevelopmentFinance
Nepal dependentonconcessionary
developmentfinancefromtraditional
Westerndevelopmentpartners,IFIs,&
I/NGOs.
SriLanka dependentonnon-traditional/
newdevelopmentpartners China&India
andinternationalprivatecapitalmarket
borrowings.
CausesofLackofLivelihoodsOpportunities
inSriLanka
Lackofcapacityofthepublicadministrative
systemtoundertakesmallandmediumscale
developmentprojectsandincreasing
dependenceonmegaprojectsinpost-1977
period.
SevererestrictionsonI/NGOsduetosecurity
phobiaareinimicaltolivelihoodsrestoration.
Reparations Nepal,Colombia,butnonein
SriLanka.
ProspectsofNepalandSriLanka
Nepal MinistryofPeaceandReconstructionandTruth
andReconciliationCommittee.However,inadequate
economicgrowthtoemergeoutofunderdevelopment.
Slowbutsteadyprogress.
SriLanka Rapideconomicadvancementatthenational
level.Notonlythereisnoprocessofreconciliationor
politicalsolution,newconflictsareinstigatedbyreligious
bigotssuspectedtobeclosertotheregime.Rapidbut
fragileprogress.VulnerabilitiesofSriLanka foreign
remittances,apparelexports,tourismearningsare
vulnerableduetoanti-Muslimhatecampaignand
internationalprobeonviolationofhumanitarianlawsand
warcrimesduringthelaststagesofcivilwar.