IGCSE GEOGRAPHY

Population Dynamics

POPULATION &
SETTLEMENT
Population Dynamics

Candidates should be able to:

Describe the growth of the worlds population and associated problems and
show an understanding of the causes and consequences of overpopulation and under-population.
Identify and suggest reasons for contrasting patterns of population growth (or
decline) as influenced by migration, birth rate and death rate, especially
the impact of HIV/AIDS.
Describe the consequences (benefits and problems) of different patterns of
population growth.
Identify and suggest reasons for different types of population structure as
shown by age/sex pyramids.
Describe the factors influencing the density and distribution of population and
population migration.

THE GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION

In 1999, the worlds population reached ____________________. It has grown rapidly in the last 200
years, particularly since ______________.
Natural increase peaked at ___________ a year globally in 1960s.
Since then, falling birth rates have reduced this increase to _________a year.
However, the global population is still expanding by _________________. Estimates suggest that
by______ the global population will be _________, with zero growth occurring only towards the end of the
century.

TASK: Describe the pattern of world population growth shown on the graph.
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GEOGRAPHICAL SKILLS DEVELOPMENT: Describing graphs

Changes Downstream in Discharge
5
4
3

m/s3

The discharge increases

steeply and quickly from
1.2km -7,5km and then
decreases and remains
fairly consistent from
8.5km to 15.8

Discharge

This is the peak discharge on the

Innerliethen.
4m/s3 7.8 km downstream

1
0

2
-1
1.

2 25 25 . 8 . 5 25 .5 .8 .8
7 8 9. 13 14 15
4. 7.
distance KM

Very steep increase between 2

and 4 km. Rise from 0.1 4 m/
s3

The discharge steeply decreases between

7.8-8.5 KM

Lowest discharge is 01.m/s3 at

1.2 km downstream

Look for:
1. Major overall pattern and correlation: ie. The discharge increases with
distance downstream. It is a positive correlation.
2. Describe changes in the lines direction , steepness. (use words like:
increases, rapidly, quickly, decreases, sharply, slowly, smoothly)
3. Identify the highest and lowest values
4. Any anomalies?
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Causes of population growth:

Several different factors (which interrelate) have caused the growth in the worlds population:

Health: the control of disease, birth control measures, infant mortality rates, diet and malnutrition,
the numbers of doctors and nurses, sexual health, sanitation
Education: Heath education, the age at which compulsory schooling finishes, females in education,
levels of tertiary education, literacy levels
Social provision: levels of care for the elderly, availability of radio and other forms of media, clean
water supply
Cultural factors: religious attitudes to birth control status gain from having children, the role of
women in society, sexual morality
Political factors: taxation to support services, strength of the economy, impact of war and conflicts,
access to health care and contraception
Environmental factors: frequency of hazards, environmental conditions that breed disease

BUT REMEMBER!!!
The growth in world population has not taken place evenly. The populations of some continents have grown
and continue to grow at faster rates than others______________________________________________
____________________________________. In 1995, their share of the worlds population was ________
This is expected to fall to ________ by 2050. It is estimated that Europes population will shrink by 90
million during this period.
Asia has rapid, but declining, rate of population growth. Between 1995 and 2050, _________, ________
and ___________ will contribute most to world population growth. Indeed, it is estimated that by 2050 India
will overtake China as the worlds most populous country. Another potential area of growth is sub-Saharan
Africa, particularly Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

TASK: Explain the pattern of population change shown on the graph from 1950 to 2010

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WHAT CAUSES POPULATIONS TO CHANGE?

Birth Rate: number of live babies born in every
year for every 1000 people

Two main reasons:

1.NATURAL INCREASE (Increasing or decreasing birth and
death rates)
2. NET MIGRATION RATE (People moving into or leaving
an area. Immigra on= moving into an area, Emigra on =
moving out of an area)

Death Rate: number of people in every 1000 who

die each year.
Natural Increase: is the difference between birth
and death rates.
Birth rate is higher= increase in popula on
Death rate is higher= decrease in popula on

Birth rates fall because:

1. Introducing family planning
e.g. China, India

Death Rates fall because:

2. Increasing wealth and educa on

1. Improving medical care: longer life expectancies

3. Educa ng women, lengthening

girls me at school, delaying
marriage.

2. Improving sanita on, water supply.

3. Quality and quan ty of food improves
4. Transport and communica on improve movement of
food and medical supplies
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TASK: Draw a spider diagram to illustrate the different factors which explain why birth rates and death rates vary between countries. Try and add case
study examples where possible

What
factors
affect the
birth rate?

POPULATION
CHANGE

What
factors
affect the
death
rate?

PAST PAPER QUESTION

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POPULATION EXPLOSION?
POPULATION TRENDS IN LEDCS
The fastest rates of population growth have been in LEDCS. Consequently, the greatest falls in fertility
rates are expected to take place there. The average growth rate in the less developed world
(excluding
China)
is 1.8%.
Birth global
rates are now
declining in LEDCs, the exception is Africa and the
What
is the
future
for our
population?
middle east, where in almost 50 countries families of at least 6 children are the norm and the annual
population growth is still over 2.3%. India is approaching China as the most populous country. Its
population is over one billion, and is expected to overtake that of China by 2050. This assumes an
annual population growth of around 0.9% per year for India, compared with 0.4% per year for China.
Fertility rates are declining in a range of LEDCS, from East Asia to the Caribbean, and throughout
most of South America. Although traditional religious attitudes are usually seen as a barrier to low
fertility, in the Islamic world fertility is now below replacement level, fewer than 2.12 children per
woman. Tunisia, Iran and Turkey are now all in this category.

POPULATION TRENDS IN MEDCs

In the more economically developed world, population growth has been slow for several decades. In
some countries, for example Italy, Russia and Portugal there has even been a small fall in the
population in Italy a population decrease of 4 million by 2020 is forcast. In the next 40 years
Germany could see its population drop by almost 20% and Japan by 25%. The fertility level required
to maintain the population level is 2.12 children per woman. There are already over 50 countries with
fertility rates below this level. The UN predicts that by 2016 there will be 88 nations in this category.
China is already a member of the Under 2.1 club although its population will not begin to decline until
2040 at the earliest. This is due to the time lag between reaching replacement level fertility and actual
population decline. There are very low fertility rates in many eastern European countries. Here
economic collapse and uncertainty following the end of communist rule has made many women
postpone or abandon having children. Conversely, at 2.0, fertility in the USA is relatively high. As
concern spreads about low fertility in the more developed world, governments are beginning to act
with a variety of incentives such as financial benefits.
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REVISION
TASK: Explain the pattern shown on the graph
- explain why the global population has increased
generally since 1750
- explain why growth has been particularly rapid in
developing countries since 1950
- explain why growth has slowed in industrialized
countries

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KEY TERMS

Population change: the annual population change of an area is the cumulative change in the size
of a population after both natural change and migration have been taken into account

Natural change: the change in the size of a population caused by the interrelationship between
birth and death rates. If birth rate exceeds death rate, a population will increase. If death rate
exceeds birth rate, a population will decline

Birth rate: the number of live births per 1,000 people in one year

Death rate: the number of deaths per 1,000 people in one year

Fertility rate: the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15-49 (reproductive age) in one year. It
is also defined as the average number of children each woman in a population will bear

Infant mortality: the number of deaths of children under the age of one year, expressed per 1,000
live births per year

Life expectancy: the average number of years from birth that a person can expect to live

Longevity: the increase in life expectancy over a period of time

Population structure: the make-up of a population of an area, usually in the form of age and sex
distributions

Population density: the number of people per unit area. (It is the total population of an area
divided by the size of the area, usually in km2)

Migration: the permanent or semi-permanent change of residence of an individual or group of

people

Migration rate/ net migration: the difference between the number of people who migrate in
(immigrants) and the number of people who migrate out (emigrants) per 100,000 (or 1,000) of the
population, per year.
NB/ When in-migrants exceed out-migrants, there is net migrational gain. When outmigrants exceed in-migrants there is net migration loss.

Forced migration: when a migrant has to move because of the circumstances in his or her home
country

International migration: The UN defines international migration as the movement of people across
national frontiers for the minimum of one year

Rural-urban and urban-rural migration: in less developed countries, the net migtational gain of
urban areas at the expense on rural areas results in urbanisation. In more developed countries,
movements from urban areas to rural areas have led to counter urbanisation.

Voluntary migration: the migrant makes the decision to migrate.

Changes in Population over time:

o

Natural change: the change in population (increase or decrease) because of the difference
between birth rate and death rate (not including changes due to migration). For example,
when birth rate > death rate, the population will grow naturally (if migration rate is zero).
When death rate > birth rate, the population will fall (unless enough people migrate in)
Zero growth rate: the population is neither increasing nor decreasing (e.g. birth rate=death
rate)

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