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August 25, 2014

To: Interested Parties

From:

Re:
Ben Tulchin, Ben Krompak and Kiel Brunner; Tulchin Research

Bobby’s Clear Path to Victory Against Foreclosure King David
Trott



Tulchin Research just completed a scientific telephone survey among likely general election 2014 voters in
Michigan’s 11th Congressional district. The results indicate this is currently an extremely competitive race
between Democrat Bobby Mckenzie and Republican David Trott in what is clearly a swing district.
Furthermore, the survey shows McKenzie can pull ahead and win this district if he has the resources to
properly define the race due to the fact that Trott already has high negatives from getting attacked in the
primary for being Michigan’s “Foreclosure King”. This proves to be an enormous vulnerability for Trott that
gives Democrats an opportunity to pick up this seat. We present the key findings from the poll in this memo.

Competitive District

This is a very competitive district and there are many data points demonstrating just how closely
matched the two parties are in this suburban Detroit district.

 Party identification is even (38% for Democrats, 39% for Republicans, 20% independent);
 The generic Congressional vote is statistically tied as the results fall well within the survey’s
margin of error as a Democrat narrowly trails a Republican by just three points (41% to
44%).

Democratic Performance in Michigan’s 11
th
Congressional District
Democrat Republican
Democrat –
Republican
Party Identification (self-reported, including leaners) 38% 39% -1
Generic Congressional Vote 41% 44% -3


Horserace for Michigan’s 11
th
Congressional District

Our poll finds the Congressional horserace to be just as competitive as the partisan divide in the
district. Specifically, Democrat Bobby Mckenzie garners 40 percent of the vote and trails
Republican David Trott by only four percentage points, with the remaining 16 percent undecided.
These results are a statistical tie as they are within the survey’s margin of error, an impressive
showing given the fact that Trott substantially outspent McKenzie in communicating to voters in the
primary.
Tulchin Research – Poll Results – Bobby McKenzie for MI-11 2

Once voters hear more information about both candidates, the race becomes even more
competitive and McKenzie actually pulls into the lead. In fact, after voters are provided positive
descriptions about McKenzie and Trott, McKenzie gains more ground than his Republican
opponent and leapfrogs ahead, drawing 47 percent of the vote to 46 percent for Trott. After we
simulate an attack on both candidates, Mckenzie further extends his lead to 48 percent to 41
percent, with only 11 percent of voters undecided.


Poll Finds Highly Competitive Race, McKenzie Moves to Lead

Initial Vote:
McKenzie - Trott
Revote After
Positives
Revote After Negatives
on Both Candidates
Bobby McKenzie 40% 47% 48%
David Trott 44% 46% 41%
Undecided 16% 8% 11%
McKenzie - Trott -4 +1 +7

In sum, this poll finds that Bobby McKenzie is in a very competitive race against Republican Dave
Trott in an evenly matched district. McKenzie starts off in a statistical tie and pulls ahead once
voters hear more about both candidates. The poll shows that McKenzie has strong positives that
resonate with voters while, conversely, Trott has a major liability as Michigan’s “Foreclosure King”.
In fact, Trott spent $2.5 million promoting himself in the primary, most of which went to paid media
and TV ads, while his opponents only spent $100,000 attacking him as the “Foreclosure King”. Yet,
despite this 25-to-1 ratio, Trott’s unfavorable rating is now higher than his favorables, indicating
limited negative communication against Trott goes a long way. If the McKenzie campaign has the
resources to get its message out, Democrats can pick up this closely divided district.

Survey Methodology: From August 20-24, 2014, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey
among 500 likely November general election voters in Michigan’s 11
th
Congressional district using
live, professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones. The margin of error for the
survey is +/- 4.38 percentage points.
Initial Horserace for Michigan’s 11
th
Congressional District
If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates
were: (ROTATE) Bobby McKenzie, the Democrat, or Dave Trott, the Republican?