56 June 2005 Physics Today 2005 American Institute of Physics, S-0031-9228-0506-230-7

Why No New Einstein?

Lee Smolin
I
am sure I am not the only one in this
year of Einstein who receives calls
from journalists asking, Why is there
no new Einstein? While we have
ready answers, there is still the dis-
quieting worry that perhaps a lesson
might be learned from the fact that
this one person, who was initially un-
able to find an academic job, did more
to advance physics than most of the
rest of us put together have since.
Many of Einsteins contemporaries
testified that he was not unusually
talented mathematically. Instead,
what enabled him to make such
tremendous advances was a driving
need to understand the logic of na-
ture, tied to a breathtaking creativity
and a fierce intellectual independ-
ence. But Einstein does not stand
alone. One can cite many examples
showing that big advances in physics
come when unusually creative and in-
tellectually independent individuals
ask new questions and forge new
directions.
It follows that new Einsteins are
unlikely to be easily characterized in
terms of research programs that have
been well explored for decades. In-
stead a new Einstein will be develop-
ing his or her own research program
that, by definition, will be one that no
senior person works on. He or she may
even feel the need to focus on the re-
ally deep and difficult questions, such
as the foundations of quantum me-
chanics, that are ignored in leading
American research institutes and de-
partments, despite the work of a few
leading physicists who had estab-
lished their credentials in other topics
first. After all, if Einstein himself felt
the deepest problems were in the
foundations of quantum theory, and if
those problems remain unsolved half
a century later, why should we expect
a new Einstein to ignore them?
Over the past few years many have
expressed concern about the chal-
lenge to US physics from growing in-
vestments abroad, from the Euro-
pean Union to China. I believe our
future success in physics will depend
on how well we can answer a single
question: Are our universities, insti-
tutes, and foundations doing all they
can to identify and promote individu-
als who have the creativity and intel-
lectual independence that character-
ize those who contribute most to
physics? I say that they are not. They
are not even doing as well as some of
their competitors do to support those
with the most creativity and inde-
pendence. Simple changes could
greatly improve the extent to which
American science is hospitable to
very talented physicists.
Creativity and independence
The mechanisms we have constructed
to ensure fairness and quality have
the unintended side effect of putting
people of unusual creativity and inde-
pendence at a disadvantage.
Those who follow large well-sup-
ported research programs have lots of
powerful senior scientists to promote
their careers. Those who invent their
own research programs usually lack
such support and hence are often un-
dervalued and underappreciated.
People with the uncanny ability to
ask new questions or recognize unex-
amined assumptions, or who are able
to take ideas from one field and apply
them to another, are often at a disad-
vantage when the goal is to hire the
best person in a given well-estab-
lished area.
In the present system, scientists
feel lots of pressure to follow estab-
lished research programs led by pow-
erful senior scientists. Those who
choose to follow their own programs
understand that their career
prospects will be harmed. That there
are still those with the courage to go
their own way is underappreciated.
It is easy to write many papers
when you continue to apply well-
understood techniques. People who
develop their own ideas have to work
harder for each result, because they
are simultaneously developing new
ideas and the techniques to explore
them. Hence they often publish fewer
papers, and their papers are cited less
frequently than those that contribute
to something hundreds of people are
doing.
To give the advantage to people
who are unusually creative and inde-
pendent, we should change the meas-
ures we use to judge quality and
promise.
Sometimes it is asserted that more
independent and creative thinkers
constitute a greater risk in hiring.
But I think an examination of the ca-
reers of individual physicists shows
that on the whole the opposite is true.
It is the creative and independent
thinkers who are more likely to con-
tinue to make important contribu-
tions throughout their lifetime. They
are driven by their own curiosity and
need for understanding, rather than
by career motives. Their research is
not going to fall off when the tech-
niques they learn in graduate school
run out, for they have the ability to
invent new ideas and directions and
learn new techniques.
We also greatly underestimate the
risks of having large numbers of peo-
ple follow speculative but trendy re-
search programs, even those led by
very accomplished senior people.
String theory
Over the past 20 years, string theory
has attracted the effort of a large
number of theorists and mathemati-
cians. Nevertheless it is clear that the
program has not progressed as origi-
nally envisioned. Many key conjec-
tures remain unproven, including the
basic claim that the theory gives finite
answers.
1
The hope for a unique the-
ory and the promise of new falsifiable
predictions have dissolved with the
discovery of evidence for vast num-
bers (greater than 10
300
) of theories.
The well-studied versions disagree
with experiment, and little is known
explicitly about the many versions
that are conjectured to agree with ob-
servation. Despite much effort, no
evidence has been found to confirm
the key hypotheses, including hidden
Lee Smolin, formerly professor of
physics at the Pennsylvania State Uni-
versity, moved in 2001 to Perimeter
Institute for Theoretical Physics in
Waterloo, Ontario. He has worked on
quantum gravity, string theory, particle
physics, and foundations of quantum
mechanics.
http://www.physicstoday.org June 2005 Physics Today 57
dimensions, grand unification, and
supersymmetry. I suspect most prac-
titioners can agree that if string the-
ory is to fulfill its promise, it needs an
infusion of new ideas and directions.
The problem is that the kind of peo-
ple most likely to have such ideas
have not recently had easy times mak-
ing careers, compared to less inde-
pendent people, who were content to
follow the fashion in string theory.
Each year, one or two trendy direc-
tions came and went, often leaving
unsolved problems. Young string the-
orists feel a lot of pressure to follow
the changes, if they are to have the
benefit of recommendations from sen-
ior people. Several young string theo-
rists have told me they simply have
neither the time nor the freedom to
ask their own questions or develop
their own ideas.
Alternatives to strings
More worrisome, young theorists who
pursue alternatives to string theory
have had great difficulty finding any
academic positions in the US. This is
true of those who pursue alternative
programs in particle physics, like
technicolor and preon models, and
also true of those who pursue alter-
native approaches to quantum grav-
ity, such as dynamical triangulations,
causal sets, and loop quantum grav-
ity. These subjects are all pursued
much more vigorously outside the US,
because leading researchers in these
areas are drawn to leave US univer-
sities by offers of very good opportu-
nities elsewhere.
One approach barely represented
in the US is quantum gravity phe-
nomenology, which studies how to test
quantum gravity theories experimen-
tally by means of high-energy astro-
physics experiments such as the
Gamma Ray Large Area Space Tele-
scope and the Pierre Auger Observa-
tory. The experiments are supported
in the US, but most theorists who are
developing the relevant phenomenol-
ogy are outside the US.
Other examples show the hazards
of too much concentration of resources
on a few areas, to the exclusion of oth-
ers. For decades, the foundations of
quantum mechanics got virtually no
support in the US; it was believed to
be a direction without promise. In the
last 10 years the fast-moving field of
quantum information has shown that
important experimental and theoreti-
cal results about foundations of quan-
tum mechanics were always there for
the finding. In other cases, such as
LIGO, the concentration of resources
on a large project has weakened the
ability of NSF to support individual
scientists working on their own ap-
proaches to fundamental questions.
Some modest proposals
But my purpose here is not to argue
for or against any existing research
program. It is to propose that, under
the pressure to support programs ad-
vanced decades ago by now influential
senior scientists, we have forgotten
that theoretical physics is most often
advanced by people who ignore estab-
lished research programs to invent
their own ideas and forge their own
directions. Such people are often, but
not always, young people, whose ca-
reers are the most vulnerable. If we do
not explicitly make room for these
kinds of people, they will leave
physics or they will continue, as now,
to leave the US to do the physics they
want to do.
Some other countries seem to be
better at making room for the inde-
pendent thinkers. The UK, through
the Royal Society Fellowships, is able
to pick very bright mavericks who
would not be hired in the US, and give
their careers good starts. France picks
a small number of very talented
young scientists and gives them per-
manent positions; that security im-
munizes them to some extent from
sociological pressures. Canada has
opened the Perimeter Institute,
whose specific mandate is to be a
home for independent foundational
thinkers, and other such projects are
in planning stages around the world.
In addition to the importance of se-
lecting individuals over research pro-
grams, science as a whole benefits
from diverse points of view. When a
group of researchers aggressively pur-
sues a research program but has little
interaction with either experiment or
outsiders, the group tends to overin-
terpret results, undervalue risks, and
complacently postpone facing up to
hard questions and negative results.
This is groupthinka well-docu-
mented phenomenon in government,
intelligence agencies, and business.
When it happens in an academic spe-
cialty, the fault is not with a scientist
who aggressively promotes his or her
program. The whole scientific com-
munity makes the rules that allow
consensus to be established without
sufficient evidence.
It is ironic that the US, which
rightly encourages racial and gender
diversity, worries less about ensuring
the creative and intellectual diversity
on which the health of science de-
pends. Some obvious recommenda-
tions follow from a comparison of
practices in the US and elsewhere.
Young scientists should be hired
and promoted based only on their abil-
ity, creativity, and independence,
without regard to whether they con-
tribute to any research programs es-
tablished by older people.
To prevent overinvestment in spec-
ulative directions that may end up as
dead ends, departments should en-
sure that different points of view
about unsolved problems, and rival
research programs, are represented
on their faculties.
Scientists should be penalized for
doing superficial work that ignores
hard problems and rewarded for at-
tacking the longstanding open conjec-
tures, even if progress takes many
years of hard work. More room could
be made for people who think deeply
and carefully about the really hard
foundational issues.
Research groups should seek out
people who pursue rival approaches,
and include them as postdocs, stu-
dents, and visitors. Conferences in one
research program should be encour-
aged, by those funding them, to invite
speakers from rival programs. In-
structors should encourage students
to learn about competing approaches
to unsolved problems, so that the stu-
dents are equipped to choose for them-
selves the most promising directions
as their careers advance.
Funding agencies and foundations
should take steps to see that at every
level scientists are encouraged to
freely explore and develop all viable
proposals to solve deep and difficult
problems. Funding should go to indi-
vidual scientists for individual
thought and not to research pro-
grams. Aresearch program should not
be allowed to become institutionally
dominant until supported by convinc-
ing scientific proof of the usual kind.
Before such proof is demonstrated, al-
ternative and rival approaches should
receive encouragement to ensure that
the progress of science is not stalled
by overinvestment in a direction that
turns out to be wrong.
A foundation or agency could cre-
ate a small number of Einstein fel-
lowships, to go specifically to theorists
under 40 who invent their own ideas
and programs aimed at solving foun-
dational problems in physics. As Ein-
stein told us, to solve such problems
requires concentration for years, re-
gardless of fashion, so these fellow-
ships should offer 10 years of support
and go only to theorists whose work
cannot be categorized as a contribu-
tion to an existing approach.
Reference
1. E. DHoker, D. H. Phong, Phys. Lett. B
529, 241 (2002).