ISE 3293/5013
Assignment 3
Due Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Remember to show your work for calculation problems. You can use Excel or a calculator to
calculate factorials, permutations, and combinations.
Problem 1
Suppose that 70% of an inventory of the memory chips used by a computer manufacturer
comes from Vendor 1 and 30% from Vendor 2. It is determined that 99% of the chips from
Vendor 1 and 88% of the chips from Vendor 2 are not defective. (adapted from [Modarres et al.
2010])
a. If a chip from the computer manufacturers inventory is selected and is defective, what
is the probability that the chip was made by Vendor 1?
b. What is the probability of selecting a defective chip (irrespective of the vendor)?
Problem 2
A passenger air bag (PAB) disable switch is used to deactivate the PAB in cases when the
passenger seat of a commercial van is not occupied. This saves the PAB from being wasted
when the van gets into a frontal collision. The switch itself is an expensive component, so its
feasibility needs to be justified based on the probability of the passenger seat being occupied
when a collision happens. Available data show that a commercial van driver has a passenger
30% of the time. In addition, expert opinion analysis indicates that the driver is 40% less likely
to get into a collision with a passenger than without one. Given that a frontal collision has
occurred, what is the probability of the passenger seat in the commercial van was occupied?
(adapted from [Modarres et al. 2010])
Problem 3
There are 15 teams in the National Basketball Association (NBA) Western Conference. The
conference is divided into 3 divisions, and each division has 5 teams. Assume that no two teams
have identical records.
a. How many different rankings of all 15 teams are possible?
b. If each division is ranked separately, how many different rankings are possible?
c. The Oklahoma City Thunder is one of the teams in the Western Conference. If each
division is ranked separately, how many different rankings are possible where Oklahoma
City is in first place in its division?
Problem 4
A production facility employs 20 workers on the day shift, 15 works on the swing shift, and 10
workers on the graveyard shift. A quality control consultant is to select six of these workers for
indepth interviews. Suppose the selection is made in such a way that any particular group of
six workers has the same chance of being selected as does any other group (that is, drawing six
slips without replacement from among the 45). (adapted from [Devore 2009])
a. How many selections result in all six workers coming from the day shift? What is the
probability that all six selected workers will be from the day shift?
b. What is the probability that all six selected workers will be from the same shift?
c. What is the probability that at least two different shifts will be represented among the
selected workers?
d. What is the probability that at least one of the shifts will be unrepresented in the
sample of workers?
Problem 5
From a collection of five women and seven men. (adapted from [Ross 1998])
a. How many different committees consisting of two women and three men can be
formed?
b. What if two of the men are feuding and refuse to serve on the committee together?
Problem 6
Chapter 3, Exercise 3.90 in [Mendenhall and Sincich 2007].
Problem 7
Suppose you have a standard 52card deck of playing cards. Lets develop the likelihood that we
are dealt a three of a kind. (adapted from [Sullivan 2007])
a. How many ways can five cards be selected from a 52card deck?
b. Each deck contains 4 twos, 4 threes, and so on. How many ways can three of the same
card be selected from the deck?
c. The remaining two cards must be different from the three chosen and different from
each other. For example, if we drew three kings, the fourth card cannot be a king.
Further, if we drew three kings, the fourth and fifth cards cannot be the same (or wed
have a full house). After selecting the three of a kind, there are 12 different ranks of
card remaining in the deck that can be chosen. Of the 12 ranks remaining, we choose
two of them and then select one of the four cards in each of the two chosen ranks. How
many ways can we select the remaining two cards?
d. Compute the probability of obtaining three of a kind when dealt five cards.
Problem 8
Show the following (use the variables dont simply plug in numerical values).


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