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Pictures of Lighthouses
Friday November 20, 2009

Santiago Niño Becerra: The Crisis of 2010

Santiago Niño Becerra is Professor of Economic Structure
in the IQS Faculty of Economics. Ramon Llull University
and is also apparently astrologer ........

(This text was published in days between July 31 and August
10, 2007. The present is a revised and enlarged edition).

The month of September 2007 will mean the beginning of
the end of the economic system in which we are
immersed for nearly two centuries and which will
manifest itself in a big crisis starting in 2010. From here,
the system will evolve to its total transformation into
another very different structurally through a process
similar to that which followed the mercantilist system in
the second half of the eighteenth century. The crisis of
2010, will therefore be a consequence of the death
process of the present structure, the death that may
sound dramatic, but does not fall within the historical
dynamic that has happened in the last two thousand
years, a dynamic that is systems, like any living thing,
born, changes, evolves, it withers and dies.

The current structure was born in 1928 and is itself the
welfare state in which the planet has been involved since
that year. The 1929 crash and the Great Depression
meant a radical change from the past, a change that was
manifested through the junction between the 'social
support' and 'survival' and which was founded in
continued economic growth, however , this welfare state,
this state of 'going over', to grow, has left out something
that is indispensable: stability.
Therefore, the current structure is in the process of
profound change due to the pursuit of individual success,
intrinsic to the development the system has taken, has
not seen the need to meet the stability pacts that were
implicitly contained in the draft initiated in 1928, which
has involved an unreasonable expenditure of resources
that in most cases, has resulted in waste.

The reason for such waste has been capitalist philosophy
itself. Capitalism is individualistic, that is, each individual
must look to themselves to advance in their personal
evolution, implying that not to worry about others
because each of the other shall be determined solely on
himself in Consequently, each individual will act in the
best way I can and know for himself, but that course of
action carries with it the waste of resources.

Between 1973 and 1984, with the two energy crises, the
system warns you that the rate of consumption that are
undergoing resources can hardly move forward. The
response came in the 80s with the beginning of improved
productivity, economic growth, which disconnects the
employment of productive factors, however, the
individualistic aspect of the process, not reversed,
indeed, accelerated : the behavior of the yuppies and the
expansion of the globalization process attests.

In the 80 would have to be dealt a pact, would have had
to devise a collective and participatory strategy to
optimize the utilization of resources, which would have
resulted in reducing their consumption, which was not
done and continue to think in terms individual. Such
agreement has already been completely impossible after
1995 when the process becomes postglobal.
That is, the system is dying because it is not sustainable
in its current form, is thus depleted.

The crisis of 2010 will be very similar characteristics to
that of 1929: end of a way of doing things, though, unlike
what happened in 1929 when the arrival of the crisis was
a surprise because the company years 20 lived totally
focused on her mind, the 2010 is being seen coming for
some time, so its impact will not be as violent as that of
29; also the remains of the welfare model will mitigate, in
part, its consequences; however, this mitigating effect is
very limited due to the progressive cuts in the model
takes time forcing the evolution of the system, cuts will
be increased.

There is something that takes time announcing the germ
of a new philosophical elements. The Third Way, in
whatever form, with its constant reference to the liability,
that people should be responsible, people should act
responsibly, each person must act responsibly, is putting
on the table the idea that there is no one that, above the
individual, to ensure correct deviations as they occur, ie
what the philosophy behind the Third Way is announcing
is that "every suit has to hold his trades.

From September all going to be very different now.
Quickly he will impose the idea that things are not going
so well as now being said that van, but this finding will
be progressive, which will lead to a certain idea of
'foresight' which will result in the 'imposition' policies
and concrete measures. However, unlike the 1929 crisis
in which the family played an important role in providing
support to those affected, in this new situation, neither
this nor any other support of this caliber will be present,
on the contrary, in this crisis , which is, as the concept of
personal responsibility, the star of the party, the support
will completely absent, at most, although this only at the
individual, it should consider setting up a kind of subsidy
from subsistence to ensure minimal survival
unacceptable for the citizens of developed countries, and
in order for their perceptive / is to be actively involved in
the search for alternatives, ie take responsibility for their
own existence.

In September, immediately around the holidays, a feeling
that things are not as they should begin to settle in the
minds of people, which will translate into making a series
of economic policy decisions expressed in actions
concrete designed to redress the situation, actions that
will be imposed, not negotiated, decided not suggested.

The world economy has spent years running by inertia,
with the autopilot, largely programmed with the
philosophy inherent in the motto "the world is going
well." This, I mean that deep down, is that the system is
not prepared to act in situations of risk, therefore, the
measures taken will be a 'go on the run' without a
definite plan, trying to leave the problem and believing,
at first, it is merely a cyclical setback.

As happened between 1748 and 1762, when the
development took a new philosophy in the mercantilist
system: what would be the philosophy of the capitalist
system after 1995 a new philosophy is now defined in the
existing system, a new philosophy which speaks of the
individual as part of a collective, a group increasingly
shaped by rising productivity and a growing tendency to
use more than to own, a group increasingly influenced by
the need for communication.

In parallel, the consumption of resources and, indeed, the
expected evolution of the trend in consumption of
resources-all, including the consumption of something
that today is essential: the bandwidth of the
communications passing, shows a panorama unbearable
for the existing stock of resources. From September this
fact is displayed in all its harshness and involve the
gradual imposition of restrictions on the use and
consumption of resources, either through price increases,
either through the limitation or denial of their
consumption, which will lead to death from the activities
demonstrate ineffective when they were prevented

At the same time, everything has gone so far noting that
the system had not worked but has been masked by the
slogan 'the world goes well', is expressed: the problems
in international trade, financial dependency of the USA,
tensions leading to an increasingly devalued U.S. dollar,
the creaking of a Europe that does not quite fit,
insufficient but increasing social expenditures, depletion
of the debt capacity of families, different housing

All this will cause, from September, will lead to a
situation of cuts, intervention and increasing social
protests sometimes be harshly repressed. The obvious
consequence of this will be the loss of confidence in the
infallibility of the system, contributing to the
deteriorating situation and the disappearance of the false
sense of prosperity and whose implications, increased
consumption, increased debt, will now invoice.

From September issues begin to emerge internationally.
First, oil supplies, especially from January 2008 - is
clearly insufficient to meet the demand for oil, this
situation will continue until other energy sources truly
effective, they are operational, which will not happen
short term. On the other, disguised devaluation of the
U.S. dollar which is being completely useless be
demonstrated, continuing growth in the twin deficits
(until 2010 will continue to enter U.S. capital as its
economy will continue sustained, then those entries will
cease) . For another, the performance of the European
economy will manifest wrong but less negative than the
USA so that the euro will show greater strength, though
fictitious, as the dollar.

It will impose the idea of 'utility', 'no waste', even if it
means abandoning entrenched positions so far. Thus, in
Europe, may well impose a concept now considered
heretical 'variable geometry', too, the interest rate might
not be unique, but linked to the fate that is intended to
give the requested funds in an atmosphere in which the
idea of 'collective' will have a growing importance. At this
time it will be obvious that the idea of 'illusion' is
something we definitely now past.

Will be particularly sad Christmas this year.

Between September 2007 and October 2009 will result
the pre hardest years of the crisis: 2010, 2011 and 2012.
They will implement measures aimed at preventing 'get
worse'. In this scenario there will be a clash between
anything that gives security and sheer survival because
as this is essentially the maintenance of social protection
hinders the actions needed to achieve it.

Therefore, policies and actions will focus on 'the basics',
which will lead to minimalist conceptions are installed,
and that large numbers of basic services-health,
education, entering ...- crisis, which affect filled the social
protection model markedly worsen the quality of their
performance-lack of financial, professional, material, and
the degree of coverage, generalizing, moreover, the
payment for declining services received by their
perceptive and perceivers-called 'copago'-as already
happens in several European countries.

The manifestation of this problem so far underground,
will mean serious problems in employment, since it will
produce a gradual closure of companies, in fact, only very
small, the minimum size or the truly gigantic, can
survive, the former due to its flexibility and adaptability,
the latter, with its enormous resources even at the cost
of making constant cuts. This will adversely affect the
income of people, in fact, only the highly skilled
workforce truly useful tasks will be guaranteed access to

The result is confusion, among other reasons because we
will lack a long-term plan, on the other hand, it is
impossible to develop policies to serve not so far used
because of the systemic transition in which they are the
economy and society. Consequently, only short-sighted
measures will go designing the absence of a structured
long-term strategy. In other words, and literally do not
know what to do.

Contrary to what one might think, well enough people
will accept the passing of a message that everything
pointed to a wonderful, another studded with problems.
Regardless of citizenship in different countries perceive
these problems, it is possible that certain statistics, some
data may become manipulated and distorted in order to
inject a certain dose of optimism in the population at a
time, the increasing control Freedom of expression
framed in the 'fighting terrorism', provide interventions
and censorship of topics deemed sensitive.

The period January 2008 - October 2009 will be a pivotal
period in which the sole objective will be the 'lengthening
of what you have' to 'not lose what is', which will lead to
reductions take place generalized in all orders via the
application manifest into real cuts and massive 'scissors',
although depending on the intended use to the resources,
ie, the utility will have what it seeks to do with the
resources is required to use. The valuations are carried
out in this period the situation will end with a "still

That is, at that time, they accentuate the feeling that the
only important thing is survival, so the trust will decline
and beliefs, all beliefs and illusions, wobble. The views,
perceptions, will become much more utilitarian, so that
the message of the politicians will change, moving to an
environment of 'less talk and more do. "

The minimalist tendencies are more pronounced and
definitely would end the idea that a college degree or
even graduate is guaranteed employment, but instead
will be a significant and rapid expansion of the idea that
essentially are those knowledge-no matter how acquired,
which are oriented toward what is 'useful', ie that serve
to further the practicality of things and to design and
produce goods and services that are practical.

Funds for investment, contrary to what might seem, there
will be plenty, but not to invest in any uncertain
adventure. The question that every institution, public or
private, will arise when an application has before
investment will be "what's going to serve what will be
obtained with this investment?".

This eminently practical approach, geared to online
operation and the birth of a new philosophy, will make
values upheld in the previous phase, decay or even
eventually disappear. In this line, ethics, as many years is
being understood, surely will change its approach and
message. Likewise, and for the same reason, there will be
a reversal of the positions and movements based on
religious fundamentalism.

One of the harder aspects will become apparent is the
emergence of the concept of 'Responsibility' which will be
considered the fundamental value of this phase, so that
'being responsible', the 'feeling responsible', the 'to be
responsible', the 'take responsibility', will become central
to any action. Therefore, and in this pursuit of utility, will
be asked to account those who fail to exercise their

The circumstances and developments will quickly
conclude that much of the solution lies in the delimitation
of the various aspects of the actual economic, social and
scientific, which will start a similar process in its
principles, the Enclosures in England started in the third
quarter of the 18th century, it will be enacted by a large
number of regulatory mandates.

During the months between September 2007 and October
2009, will be installing the feeling that the trend toward a
worsening of things do you do. Increasingly be perceived
less availability of resources. Measures will be taken will
be aimed at plugging holes (this will be the fate of which
will inject liquidity into the monetary system). The
objective will be 'working to grow' and become 'work to

The gradual deterioration of the situation will become
apparent in the scarcity of resources, commodities, the
scarcity of water, and in the worst performance of
services. It will produce the progressive slowdown in the
monetary and stock, as well as in business
internationally. In parallel, following a noticeable yet but
continued weakness of the U.S., large corporations play a
greater role in economic and social life.

The lack of expectations will lead to over the year 2009
shall be widespread feeling that 'this is over'. When we
reach this crisis point, in fact, already be installed on the

However, towards the end of October 2009, the feeling
would be that you're in the right direction to solve the
problems, that measures have been taken are paying off,
even in an environment of scarcity and totally removed
Current perception people have of things, this sensation
is given by the fact that although resources are scarce,
based on regulations and sacrifices that may be available
than is essential.
Of Pictures

From October 2009, due to the feeling of being on the
road to recovery, an end to restrictive policies and
minimalist, while embodied the idea that something new
is necessary that A new idea is necessary to exit the
situation where the planet is, so is making serious efforts
to enhance international cooperation that both had been
restricted in previous months.

However, gradually, until May 2010, it will dramatically
highlighting the contradictions between the philosophy of
the current system, ours, with the idea of survival proper
to a real shortage of resources. Largely because of these
contradictions, it will spread the perception that 'things
do not work' as, based on the current philosophy, should

The Great Depression is one of the best examples that
exist of a combination of two of the worst things that can
occur in an economy: over-and under-consumption. In
January 2010 there will be the first clear signs that a
crisis is very close, a crisis that is rooted in a not over-
satisfied with a limited supply, but the scarcity of
resources both productive and purchasing capacity. This
is one aspect that will make such crises of 1929 and 2010
occurring after the outbreak of this.

As of May 2010 will be an accelerated deterioration of the
situation. He will live a day, so that 'every stick your
candle endurance' is law. The trigger of the crisis, which
make it concludes that the crisis is inevitable, is likely to
be a fact that affects the acquisition of resources.

Due to the difficulty of entry into the fundamentals of our
system, we reach the exhaustion of the capacity of
competition, the spirit that, from birth to early nineteenth
century, has guided capitalism. The reason is obvious: if
the ultimate goal is survival, against whom compete?,
This has a devastating effect on the principles that gave
meaning to the concept of 'entrepreneur'.

In parallel, it will manifest a lack of oil as well as most of
the commodities that are essential for economic activity,
which will accelerate the implementation of policies
aimed at the determination of basic needs, so it probably
will be implemented rationing of many goods and
services that, well, can be complemented by increases in
their prices in order to force a reduction in consumption
of goods and services rationed below even the production
and supply capacity of supply; the objective is clearly the
resource savings.

At this point a problem that will manifest it has now been
approached by some experts: the surplus of labor in low
or very low rating in recent years has done works of low
value added and that, fundamentally, is personalized in
the immigrant population, this is likely to add tension
between immigrant and native population due to the
scarcity of jobs and resources.

The dynamic regulatory and definition then in force, may
decide to convert some guarded neighborhoods into
ghettos where people can be isolated and identified as
unnecessary and potentially conflicting demands where
they lived a marginal existence. This policy will be widely
supported because of the social protests that the
situation will take months to generate and, in some
areas, may lead to the emergence of urban guerrillas.

In this sense, between August and October 2006, the
Pentagon developed the Urban Resolve 2015 maneuvers
aimed at finding answers to which are considered to be
the typical combat scenario on the horizon of 2015, urban
neighborhoods ultrapoblados and miserable. Months
later, in January 2007, USA tested the ADS (Active Denial
System), a system that uses heat waves to repel crowds
to 500 m. away and are expected to be operational in

2011 year will be especially hard, in fact will be the
toughest of the whole crisis period, which augurs social
protests, riots and reintegration process. Because of the
shortcomings, those with 'tangibles' palpably useful
elements such as resources, or experience, will have real
power. The specialization and professionalization, are
consequently highly valued, as is the inventions and
creations geared to saving and optimization, so that
productivity will increase. It will squeeze up to the limit
the resources used, including labor, so the feeling of
'exploitation' will reappear.

Obviously you reach verbal agreements and agreements
to coordinate policies, where the climate and climate
change. In relation to both measures will be taken, but
not ecological philosophy, but due to the negative impact
of climate change on resources and availability.

Between 2012 and 2015 is required, in fact, a model of
economic regulation in all countries. The population
assumes the regulations because they pose to reduce
their level of concern and uncertainty, but also because
for the people, the passage in less than four years, a
situation in which economic decision-makers and political
leaders touted the benefits of the moment from
widespread shortages, has plunged citizenships real

The regulation of the economy is, de facto, the
introduction of a subsistence economy in which
exchanges are reduced to a very primary level, drawing
on many occasions, to barter. In this scenario, the
support of institutions and states will be addressed,
specifically and concretely, to those techniques and those
processes for the conversion of resources to enhance
their usefulness. In this environment, one of the figures
will experience a deeper transformation is addressed to
the States.

During the crisis years the importance of the corporations
will grow rapidly continuing a process already started in
the '80s, this growing role of corporations will occur at
the expense of declining state role, in fact, the decline of
the state's role will be one most significant signs that the
system is still in force today, is dying.

Corporations will gain power in economic and social gain
of power to be provided and accepted by the population.
This will result from their much more operational in
terms of management compared to some states which
are powerless to function in an environment that
resembles nothing that they were accustomed to
operating in other words, people accept the power of
corporations because, in fact, corporations already
enjoyed real power when people are aware of it because,
since September 2007, but especially since January 2008,
will have been producing a wave of corporate takeovers
to be been feeding the corporate power.

A field that during these years of crisis will experience a
dramatic breakthrough biotechnology in all aspects
relating thereto, including genetics, the aim of these
developments will be to improve specific elements of
various subsectors and always from the perspective of

Around October of 2012 will be the first visible signs that
the brunt of the crisis has passed. It will manifest greater
ease of access to some cheap goods and services that
people need and to help them cope with their situation of
need, in this line is possible legalization of marijuana just
as Prohibition was repealed in 1933 during the Great
Depression to the possible free access to multichannel
television entertainment-oriented in a population largely

Between 2015 and 2018, though still with many
problems, it will produce a steady recovery, but not, as
hitherto has been traditional after periods of crisis, based
on consumption: this means and will not return. The
recovery will be sustained in the pursuit of efficiency in
resource use and rising productivity, which will generate
huge surplus labor, and also allow the implementation of
a living allowance to ensure a minimum vital.

The recovery therefore will be supported by a new
structure of productive relations and will have to do with
the development of new energy and new materials.
Though a spectacular advance of genetics. The recovery
will result in the assessment of creativity and
empowerment of new ideas. Throughout 2018 it will be
settled to the perception of the crisis.

In late 2018 the crisis will definitely closed, and yet
nothing will be same as it was before its outbreak in

Of Pictures
By pure logic, most activities that are now generating
GDP, developed in an atmosphere of joy and prosperity
admitted, can not remain the same to ensure survival in
an atmosphere of widespread shortages. Today, the
economic agenda is aimed-at least what is allegedly "into
a permanent 'go further'. When, after September 2007,
the first problems become apparent and the idea of
'utility' be seeping into the everyday economic and social,
what activities will be to ensure that essential utility, and
what activities are those are supported, and what
activities will be those that create jobs?.

From September will begin to manifest problems in the
service sector and services, manifested in poor
performances and the appearance of impediments to
their proper performance. This is due to several factors.
On one hand, the excessive level of indebtedness of the
population will adversely affect the level of private
consumption, on the other, the closure of a growing
number of small and medium enterprises because of the
continued narrowing of margins and the already
mentioned decrease in consumption , for another, to
cause increased energy prices and other items used by
them and that will adversely affect their costs.

At the same time, the incremental social demands and to
commence production in September, do not contribute to
the consumption of services, especially those related to
leisure, nor contribute to service consumption reduction
benefits that since that month and begin to occur.

In a dynamic resource constraints and spending down,
use-related activities and improving the use will have
traveled far. Professions related to rehabilitation of all
kinds of elements, with the recovery, repair and reuse of
goods that have hitherto been discarded, and the
recycling of items that are now considered waste and
therefore not utilized, will have the best chance of

Ie, primes the idea of recycling, reuse, the concept of
cheap, outlet, of discount, of useful, both because the
amounts of resources will be scarce, and because the
average individual income will suffer a major setback , as
personal debt capacity.

Obviously, all aspects of logistics will be essential,
primarily because an excellent logistics is the basis of the
performance improvement by enabling the proper
administration and to help achieve cost assess.

And also, as has been said in recent days, biotechnology
and genetics fields will experience a dramatic
development, although these are reserved for large
consortia and collaborative networks to define
substantial investment.

Creating new things will be very difficult, so you have to
take advantage of all that exists, this will be the central
idea for this period, an idea that can be summarized in
one sentence: 'I need to be as important'.

Those economies will not suffer by a as the effects of the

In the USA the development of its economy during these
years will be very negative. The crisis will mean the end
of a period of expansion that began in 1914, expansive
period, especially in the last two decades, has been
sustained for the rest of the world, what will happen as
the crisis erupted. This development, in a country where
private consumption accounts for nearly 70% of GDP and
debt reached 130% of income, broad consequences that
will trigger significant social unrest that will be
compounded by the fact that a significant their
citizenship is in possession of firearms.

In Germany there will be a very negative since 2008. The
country will generate quality ideas, but lack the
resources to implement them, just the opposite of what
will happen to UK. The fact that this country will never be
totally finished tied to any organization will give a free
hand to do what it considers appropriate at those times.
Moreover, and somewhat as happened in other times of
the past, UK held a number of ideas regarding the optimal
use of resources that will influence the definition and
structuring of the new system and will be of great
importance for Europe.

In France, very bad situation as soon as 2008, the total
loss of political and economic role in the country, will
cause and consequence, something very similar to what
will happen to Spain. In Spain, the degradation of the
situation and begin to perceive since September 2007,
being much more apparent throughout 2008, it will mean
the end of 'Spanish model'. Starting in 2010 generated
expectations that may cause the GDP to grow but that
growth will not benefit the population.

In Asia, Japan, and based on the total internationalization
of its economy will be greatly affected by a situation that
will be global, but you can cope much better than other
countries due to the great flexibility that is capable
society. For its part, the Chinese economy will evolve in a
very negative because their productive and social model
based on relationships, in touch, in the double meanings
will not be able to adapt to times when the operational
precedence, on the other , its significant dependence on
foreign exacerbate those problems.

Where harder will manifest the effects of the crisis will be
in Latin America and Africa, can actually speak of the
total collapse of their social models to international aid
disappear. Scattered areas of specialized areas in both
production and export of commodities will be exploited
by corporations without practical benefit to the
populations of both areas.

Overall, the problems affecting the environment, issues
very studied and discussed today, and that the Kyoto
Protocol aims to reduce and that for many people and
institutions has become an ideological issue, will be
addressed solely from a watershed-based operational
criteria of usefulness.

In the next few years of pre-crisis and crisis, the studies
which will then attract more attention are those related
to the economic sphere and that it has application in the
economic sphere, at a time, the economy will take the
role of science that will address the best way to manage
scarce resources, which fully understands the generation
born between 1984 and 1995, a vision far removed from
that of these last decades focused on sustained
exponential growth in waste and indebtedness.

Finally, a sentence that falls squarely within what we
have been talking about these days, a prescient quote.
Its author is Xavier Marshal, as you know, a sculptor by
profession. The comment made in an interview by Llàtzer
Moix and published in the newspaper La Vanguardia on
15 December 2005, one of his last works: the bursting of
a 1959 Chevrolet Impala.

This is the quote:

"The era of wastefulness of capitalism has ended or is
nearing its end. I understand that in the 50 were
designed cars like the Impala, which was a display of
beauty, decoration. But I think that in a world crowded
all that is unsustainable, that product must be adjusted
to needs. Because, after all, what is a car?. For it is a
chair with wheels for four. You need not become a fault
or allow one liters consumed more than was required. So
I made this Impala at the time of its outbreak, to
symbolize a 'so far we have come' from the civilization of
abundance. "
Of Pictures

Posted by Egarciaber in 11/20/2009


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