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DREZNER - Notes from Reading 09/16/2009

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CS/gAAk7QAAJSMAACVHQAA leMAAJbaAACXigAAmCQ= On Nye:

On Krasner: Why is the US-Cuba television broadcasting payoff

matrix described as a deadlock? US wins out, IMO. By beaming signals to

the island, they are forcing Cuba to spend precious resources jamming the

signals, or face the cultural consequences
Emphasis on the importance of monitoring and info-gathering on

securing equilibrium situations. What are the global parameters addressing

spying? Everyone does it, no one admits it, no victim of spying wants it.

What gives?

Barnett and Duvall: Concern with power interpreted as a

disciplinary attachment to realism.

He argues that scholars of IR should employ multiple conceptions of

power and develop a framework that encourages rigorous attention to power

in its different forms.

Traditional (and erroneous) view of power is solely in relation to

coercing states to do something they would not normally do.

Power defined: “In general terms, power is the production, in and through

social relations, of effects that shape the capacities of actors to determine their circumstances and fate”

• 1. Compulsory Power: Direct control by one actor over another;

• 2. Institutional Power: Control actors exercise indirectly over

another through diffuse relations of interaction;
• 3. Structural Power: Constitution of subjects’ capacities in direct

structural relation to one another;

4. Productive Power: Socially diffuse production of subjectivity in

systems of meaning and signification.


DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

Session # 2

Who has benefitted from the global meltdown?:

• FED?

• China?

POWER --- what is it? We use the term frequently, but it is an

ineffable construct. Money is concrete. Power is ineffable.

• Resources

• Influence

• Achieve Goals

• Information
DREZNER - Notes from Reading 09/16/2009

AUTHORITY - - - - - - - - - - - -

Economists traditionally treat actors as atomistic and incapable

of moving markets… except when considering:

• Public Choice Models

• Oligopolies

• Optimal Tariff Theory: When you are a large market and you

impose a tariff, you are shifting the balance of trade in your favor.

Political Scientists have talked more about power.

• Robert Dahl defines power: A gets B to do what B wouldn’t

ordinarily do.

• But, how does A do this?
DREZNER - Notes from Reading 09/16/2009

○ Logic of consequences: If you don’t do this, you are up shit

creek. Material incentives and disincentives for complying.

(MATERIAL)

○ Logic of appropriateness: You can convince B that if not

complying is taboo. By instilling powerful norms in the

system b/c you disapprove or approve of certain actions, A

may be able to influence the actions of B. (NORMATIVE)

HARD POWER: A gets B to do what B normally wouldn’t do.

SOFT POWER: A gets B to think B wants to do what A wants them to

do.

HP and SP Usually correlate, but not always.

Operationalization

How do we measure power?

• Capabilities:
DREZNER - Notes from Reading 09/16/2009

○ GDP

○ Income/capita

○ Population

○ Military Strength

○ Natural Resource Reserves

○ Foreign Investment / Aid / Debt

 Currency Reserves (China has over $2 trillion in

currency reserves)

○ Human Resources: Education / Health

○ Credit Rating (Express measure of how much it costs to

borrow money)

• BUT >>> Power is relational. Power is also zero-sum.

• DIRECT DIFFUSE
DREZNER - Notes from Reading 09/16/2009

• SPECIFIC ACTORS Compulsory Institutional

• SOCIAL

• IDENTITIES Structural Productive

• 1. Compulsory Power: Direct control by one actor over another;

• 2. Institutional Power: Control actors exercise indirectly over

another through diffuse relations of interaction;

• 3. Structural Power: Constitution of subjects’ capacities in direct

structural relation to one another;

4. Productive Power: Socially diffuse production of subjectivity in

systems of meaning and signification.
DREZNER - Notes from Reading 09/16/2009

○ WE ARE ALL REALLY IN THE MATRIX – Very subtle

○ Private Property. We all accept the concept of private

property.

○ There is a spoon.

MEixcanitas….
09/16/2009

THEORIES

1) Actors --> Principally states

2) Incentives / Preferences: Fundamental disagreement between

realism and liberalism

3) Constraints: If all actors get what they want, it’s a boring theory.

YOU NEED PLOT TENSION! Something to get in the way of what one or

more actors want.

• Even in global economy, the system is anarchic.

4) Actions / Strategies: We know who are the actors, We know what

they want. We know constraints. How to they try to get it?

• GPE: A variety of actions: pass a domestic law; sign an intl

agreement; setup a foreign plant; hedge currency; sanction, etc.

5) Outcomes: Once you have a model of who actors are, what they

want, what are contstraints, what they do ---> OUTCOMES!

• OPENESS OR CLOSENESS


DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

DREZNER’S CARDINAL PET THEORY BAR: A good theory has to be better

than: “Every major global political disaster is the fault of the FRENCH

QUALITIES OF GOOD THEORY:

1) Generalizability: How much can this theory explain? How

widely can you apply the theory?

2) Parsimony: Theories are like massive levers: Theories should

help you take a few inputs and give you a much broader prediction

of outcomes.

3) Plausibility: Do your assumptions jive with reality? How good

are the assumptions?

4) Falsifiability: If you can’t be proven wrong, you have an

ideology, not a theory.
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

i. EG: Marxism: original theory was falsifiable. But

the theory has evolved. Modern Marxism -

Dependency Theory – says developed countries keep

under developed countries underdeveloped to

maintain hegemony over them. This directly

contradicts…

5) Accuracy

Debates on Political Economy can be described along four

axi:

1) Realism/Liberalism

2) Systemic/Domestic

3) Interests/Ideas

Where interests come from originally? Material interests or

ideas?
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

4) State/Non-State Actors

REALISM – (PRISIONERS DILLEMA, ONE GAME HORIZON)

ACTORS: States--> Unitary Actors.

PREFERENCES:

• SURVIVAL - States can disappear. States must take actions to

ensure that they keep existing. (really, all theories presume that

you want to survive). (Not as important on a GPE level)

• SECURITY – Not just survive, but keep control over security. (Not

as important on a GPE level)

• SOVEREIGNTY – Maintain control/autonomy over domestic affairs.

This is a concern on GPE.
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

CONSTRAINTS: Anarchy -- > No Supranational Government. No Supreme

International Authority. --> SELF HELP. Dog eat dog. The possibility exists

that we could potentially all throw down at any time. CONSTRAINTS ARE

IMPORTANT FOR REALISTS.

STRATEGIES: Certain national strategies will be employed by all

nations:

• ACQUIRE POWER

• PRESERVE ECONOMIC AUTONOMY / AVOID INTERDEPENDENCE

(though asymmetric interdependence with you as beneficiary is

great!)

• STRENGTHEN STATE:

○ Want a state that can effectively extract resources from the

rest of the economy if necessary.

○ Want to strengthen state’s ability to negotiate with others

(including: acquiring intelligence).
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

○ Maximize Relative Gains: Prevent other states from acquiring

power.

Atila the Hun: “Not just that I must win, but all others must lose”

OUTCOMES:

• DISTRIBUTION OF POWER:

○ Hegemony (Unipolarity) – Dominant Global Leader

 Property Rights: In H System, you will have relative

openness, you maximize productivity and as Hegemon

you get the most out of it. And all other states are

dependent on you!

 Why then would other actors (non-Hegemonic) go along

with this? B/c other actors get to free ride on the

system.

 Who has the most open economy (besides Hong Kong).

United States. We’ve also written the rules of the

game to be able to force open other markets through

the WTO. Other states go along with us b/c they get

more out of the deal.
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

 HEGEMONY AS VALHALA – Will ultimately lose, but lets

try to grow as much possible and structure the system

to keep on as long as possible.

• Bipolarity – Two titans and many midgets.

○ Bloc Management: Once it is clear that there are two pols

(like during Cold War), powers start creating blocs.

 US --> GATT

 USSR --> COMECON/CMEA

• Multipolarity – More than two dominant powers.

○ Closed System: More autarchic

QUESTION: DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MULITPOLARITY AND

APOLARITY??

LIBERALISM: (PRISONERS DILEMMA ASSUMPTION: LONG

HORIZON)
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

• ACTORS: There are other actors, NGOs, UN, etc.

○ PREFERENCES: Big difference between Liberals and Realists:

Liberals believe that states care about absolute, not relative

gains.

 Liberals are more into open economies

 Liberals tend to see the world as a non-zero come

system.

• CONSTRAINTS:

○ Agreements are not always reliable

○ Non-fungibility of power: Very difficult to exchange power in

one arena for power in another arena.

○ But hey man, there are other possibilities out there.

• STRATEGIES:
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

○ Tit-for-Tat (Realists aren’t fans of Tit for Tat: If you care

about relative gains, there is no strategy that Tit-for-Tat will

out-perform one on one)

 Cooperative strategy

 Quick to punish defection

 Forgiving

 Thrive with like-minded states

○ How to increase odds of successful Tit for Tat outcome:

1) Lengthen the shadow of the future.

2) Detection of Defection. In prisoner’s dilemma it is

easy to detect defection – not so in the real world.

3) Alter payoffs so that: either the prisoner’s dilemma

looks less extreme or the game no longer looks like a

prisoner’s dilemma:
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

0,5
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

6,6

5,0 1,1
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

a) Increase the rewards for cooperation. Decrease the gap between

mutual cooperation and unilateral defection. Futhermore, you are

increasing the gap between MC and MD. Pipe dream: if you can increase

rewards for MC higher than rewards for Unilateral Defection, then you

create a very stable system.

OUTCOMES PREDICTED BY LIBERAL MODEL:

Three legs of Kantian Triad for achieving perpetual peace

1) Institutions Promote Greater Cooperation, Openness

i. Easier Detection of Defections

1. Intl Inst. Write rules and presumable it is

easier to detect defection with a rule regime

2. IMF and WTO have monitoring mechanisms

ii.Power to Punish

1. Sanctions

2) Promote an Open Economy
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

a. The more globalized the economy, the greater the mutual

dependence. You have increased the gap between mutual

cooperation and mutual defection;

b. Trade tames man’s passions: Individuals have a whole

variety of ways to enrich themselves

i. Destructive: Rape & Pillage

ii.Productive: Trade

iii.Unproductive: Graft/Corruption

THE GREATER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PRODUCTIVE

BEHAVIOR, THE EASIER IT IS TO ENGAGE IN.

3) Stronger Cooperation Among Democracies

i. Democracies automatically lower cost of monitoring

and enforcement.

ii.Democracies more likely to cooperate b/c they are

(in theory) more bound by the rule of law

domestically. Global actors bound both at global and

domestic level. Democracies take intl treaties

seriously.
DREZNER CLASS – Session 2
09/16/2009

a.
Wednesday, September 23rd 09/16/2009

THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY:

1) Individuals

2) Domestic

3) Systemic --> Realism and Liberalism are in essence both

systemic theories. Start from anarchy assumption and then derive

behavior from that.

Systemic is more parsimonious.

DOMESTIC v. SYSTEMIC

DOMESTIC

○ Actors:

 Governments

 Regime type

 State Strength: Strong State / Weak State?
09/16/2009

• Strong state is capable of making decisions

autonomously of societal forces. Even able

to influence societal forces. Easy to impose

tariffs and collect taxes.

 Political Parties: Power

 Interest Groups: Motivated principally by material and

ideological gains

 Central Bank

 Courts: Justice

 Legislatures: Stay in Power

 Sub-national governments

 States

 Emirates

 Provinces

○ Incentives:

 STAY IN OFFICE

 PERCEPTION OF POWER
09/16/2009

STOLPER SAMUELSON THEORM – When an economy opens, whatever

factor was scarce in the closed economy gets hurt. On the other hand,

relatively abundant factors benefit from opening economy.

• In US (capital rich): Capital intensive industries benefit from

openness.

• In US: Labor intensive industries oppose openness.

• In China (labor rich): Wants openness in labor sectors.

RICARDO-VINER MODEL:

• If you are mobile between sectors, you will be more open.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

Headline editors are the most important people in currency trade!

IDEAS v. INTERESTS

Actions -->

• Roadmaps

• Hooks (don’t believe the idea, but believe in the policy outcomes)

• Institutionalization: Crackpot --> legitimacy.

○ IFIs (International Financial Institutions)
Wednesday, September 23rd 09/16/2009

Milton Friedman and fellow monetarists started getting power

in the economic arena. At one point, IFIs stopped hiring

Keynesians and started to hire monetarist economists.

• Norm Cascade: if you can get enough people to believe your idea,

the idea becomes accepted wisdom.

Outcomes:

• An idea entrepreneur can create a epistemic community. This could

create hard policy constraint.

• TARP: When Paulsen proposed the plan, economists disagreed.

○ Economists said to inject liquidity instead. Paulsen does a

180 and engages in the recommended strategy.

○ Causal Complexity: Murphy’s Law of Ideas: if there isn’t a

consensus saying you’re wrong, you (as a policy maker) will

get away with it.

• Shifts in norms or principled ideas are rare.
Wednesday, September 23rd 09/16/2009

• Consensus has to be politically palatable: during crisis, many

leading economists proposed nationalizing banks. Didn’t get

traction for two reasons: 1. Politically unpalatable; 2. No economic

consensus.

• Ideas as focal points.

NON STATE ACTORS –

• 1) STATE WANNABES - Hezbollah, Hamas

• 2) DOMESTIC INTERESTS –

• 3) DIASPORAS –

• 4) PRIVATE ORDERS –

○ “Fuck it, We’ll just make our own rules.”

○ MNCs—of 100 largest entities worldwide 51 are firms.

BUT using Sales Figures as a metric for comparision is

BULL SHIT! GDP is measure of value added. If you

look at revenues of MNS, the largest firm would be 81

among the top 100 actors, behind Lebanon.
Wednesday, September 23rd 09/16/2009

○ MOODY’s – STATES DON”T WANT TO MESS WITH

THESE FUCKERS.

○ Wolfbergs principal

• 5) IGOs

○ Not singular actors. Writ large, IGOs are usually tools of

powerful states.

○ EG: who does IMF lend money to? Who does IMF not led

money to? Who does IMF lend money to and then not enforce

repayment rules (CLOSE ALLIES OF US and FRANCE!)

○ BRANDING

 Short term sacrifice in profit maximization

○ PROFIT MAXIMIZATION

○ Proprietary standards for industry.

○ Maximize Sales

BAPTISTs & BOOTLEGGERs (bootleggers supported

prohibition b/c they didn’t want new competitors)

Domestic Lobbying:
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09/16/2009

Tragedy of the Commons – NOBEL PRIZE FOR ECONOMICS

MNCs & NGOs

NGOs get power as MNCs get power.

NGOs

• Interests:

○ Most are single issue interest groups.

○ All NGOs have a few transitory interests:

 Funding

 Remaining Extant

 Attention – Be noticed

 Reputation

• Actions:

○ Appeal to Emotive Norms
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Appeal to Executive Branch, Legislature Branch, Judicial

Branch

○ Agenda Setting

○ Have to decide whether to be ‘insiders’ or ‘outsiders’

 REFORMER – Play nice with powerful people.

 SYSTEM CHANGER – No compromise
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

TRADE

A (Very) Brief History of Trade

Factors that affect the size of trade across borders:

○ 1) Technology: Easier to trade, more of it.

 Containerization.

 Caravels

 Rail

 Refrigeration

○ 2) Economic Organization

 Need some type of trust: credits, loans

○ 3) Capital Markets

○ 4) WAR – Bad for Trade. International Conflict dramatically

decreases trade:
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

 Actual Sabotage – enemies try to destroy commercial

trade

 Long term war – greater share of resources to state.

Producing goods with no useful goods beyond killing

people.

 Import competing sectors thrive. And want to stay in

business after war.

○ 5) Trade Policy - Tariffs, Non-tariff barriers, trade

agreements, etc.

TRADE:

1) Pre 1860 --> Mercantilism: Fixed sum of global trade. Way to win:

have exports exceed imports, b/c you get gold. AND GOLD IS AWESOME!

Might have to go to war to protect your trade. Economists disdain

mercantilists. They were not completely insane at that time – economic

growth from the beginning of time and 1800.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

TOTAL

GDP

BEGINNING OF TIME 1860

2) 1860-1890 -->

• Gold becomes consistent currency.

• Massive technological advancements:

○ Transatlantic cable

○ Railroad increases x5

• Companies become more sophisticated

• UK liberalizes trade barriers

• Cobden-Chevalier Treaty – Great Britain & France
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Most Favored Nation Status – If either country further

liberalized with another countries, that tariff reduction (or

whatever the policy was), also applied to the other partner.

• New Countries. Germany and Italy were re-unified.

• US was a big whopping protectionist. Russia had a 84% tariff on

manufactures.

3) 1890-1914 -->

• 1870 – GB has more railtrack in GB, than LA, S.Af. India, Canada,

Australia combined. By 1914, the periphery has 5x more than GB.

• Vietnamese rice output quintuples.

• South Africa Chocolate exports expand.

• Economic recession --> Popular hostility towards globalization. Took

it out on the gold standard. B/C it was too expensive and caused

deflation. During recession, there was massive deflation.

• Massive waves of economic migration. People are shipping across

border.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Between 1845-1900, Irish average income grows by .7%

per/year. Irish per capita GDP grew by 1.6% b/c of massive

migration.

• Waning British Hegemony. By 1890 the English trading state was

the largest Trader in the world. But no longer the largest economy.

○ Their policy direction drifted back towards closure.

• Trade wars in Europe.

• Rising Agricultural protectionism in Europe (this starts a trend that

continues for the next 100 yrs).

• Rising Industrial Protectionism in rest of world

4) 1914-1945

• WW1

○ Blockades.

○ Transport costs more than double as result of WW1

○ Cost of capital increases as countries leave Gold Standard for

own printed currency.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Before the war, trade as % of global economic output was

about 25%. After the war, it was about 16%.

○ US was undisputed winner.

○ US manufacturing output is tripled.

○ Continental Europe is dealing with hyper inflation and other

domestic issues.

○ US now undisputed hegemon, but US had ZERO interest in

taking on that leadership role. Rejects the league of Nations

and treaty of Versailles. US ABDICATED LEADERSHIP

○ Outsources financial leadership role to JP Morgan and Lamont.

 Europe borrowed massive amounts of money from US

banks.

○ CFR founded during this period as internationalization

advocate.

○ Anti-dumping bills created.

○ 2000 US tariffs raised on some good or product.

○ With US abdicating leadership, Britain tries to take over. GB

goes back to Gold Standard, but at pre-war lb-Au rates.

Stupid!
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

Rise in MNCs.

Growth in Trade.

In US, it took until 1980 for levels of trade to exceed 1929

levels.

From 1929 on, DEPRESSION. US Fed. Reserve thought there

was a stock market bubble, so they raised interest rates.

Stock market bubble popped. Massive deflation. Rubber –

1929 – 21 cents / lb; 1931 – 3 cents. / lb.

Massive fallen output. US economy shrinks by 30%.

○ Policy Reactions: SMOOT-HAWLEY Average tariff – 52.5%.

Affects over 2000 goods. Canada, Mexico, France, Italy,

Turkey, China, Spain all react by raising tariffs. Egg war

between Britain and Canada. Within a year, 26 countries

levied tariffs against US. DIDN”T CAUSE GREAT

DEPRESSION, B/C it was enacted in 1930, but it SURE AS

HELL DEEPENED IT.’

○ Austrian bank closes.

○ All major currencies are non-convertible

○ Massive drops in Exports.

○ Currency blocks.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Massive shift towards autarchy. Each country engages in a

self-help program to try to boost its domestic economy. In

US and GB, it is Keynesian. In USSR – Collectivization in

Agriculture. In authoritarian countries it is fascism.

○ “Let goods be homespun”

○ US in 1934 – Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act. Congress

outsources trade policy to President. Allows Pres. To

renegotiate trade deals to up to 50% less than Smoot-

Hawley.

5) 1945-1973

• 1944 – Bretton Woods Conference – Chateau in NH

• 1947 – Create General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – little

agreement to reduce tariffs before big agreements.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

• 1948 – Havana Charter – Ambitious goal of creating International

Trade Organization - US negotiated this with US, LA, GB. US

wanted multilateral, open agreement. GB wanted commodity

protections and LA wanted economic development incentivizing

points. --> One problem: US Congress hated it. Republicans

thought it was too liberalizing. Didn’t want foreign imports coming

in. Liberal Democrats hated it b/c it wasn’t liberal enough. ITO

never comes into existence!

• Left with GATT. Intended to be interim treaty. But we had to build

on it. Didn’t include communist bloc. – Council of mutual economic

assistance. CMEA:> Inefficient economic union known to man. No

convertible currencies. No price system, so trading was difficult.

CMEA promoted mercantilist system if everyone adopted

mercantilism.

• GATT-->

○ Most Favored Nation.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

○ National Treatment. Once a good is imported into country,

you have to treat it and regulate it just as you do

domestically made goods. Tax it with a tariff when it comes

in, but once in, same as all other goods.

○ Quotas – made hidden trade barriers more visible and then

reduce them over time.

○ Norm – Agriculture is not covered under GATT (US idea).

 b/c Great D. started partially due to dust bowl hurting

ag. Commodities.

○ GB could keep preferred trading status.

○ Customs Unions: Reduces tariffs within custom unions (trade

promoting unions (EU, for example)). Simultaneously create

more trade, but also divert trade. NAFTA Creating a lot of

trade between US-CAN-MEX, but diverted it from other

places. EG: Mexico wanted NAFTA b/c it diverted trade with

US from China to Mexico.

○ Dispute settlement – need consent of violating organization.

○ GATTS winds up being very successful. Six rounds of GATT

negotiations before WTO is created.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

○ From post-WWII to 1960s Global output triples, trade

increases by factor of six.

• Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) - Raul Prebisch (ARG) –

observed that commodity markets function differently than

manufactured goods markets. If you liberalize commodity market,

prices inevitably go down. With manufacturing, the effect on prices

was more ambiguous. b/c mnf goods more heterogeneous.

• If all you are exporting is commodities then eventually you’ll be

screwed. Prebisch argued that there should be policies that protect

infant industries in LA. So in LA there were massive barriers to

Manufactured Goods imports (as in other developing countries).

• ISI by and large Succeeded. LA is mostly industrialized. Still, GDP

is low. Demand for imports didn’t decline. Saw luxury goods

demand increase, overvalued currencies and manufacturing sectors

that were ridiculously uncompetitive. Brazil exported less than 1%

of manufacturing output. As result, ISI countries suffered from

massive balance of trade deficits. They responded by devaluing

currencies, which lead to coups and dictatorships.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

• Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) Japan, SK, Sing, HK – no real

natural commodities to export anyway. ‘We will pursue policies

that protect our home markets’ Export Promotion. Purpose: We’ll

give you the domestic market, but you have to be able to export

and compete globally. ALTERNATE TO ISI

• ISI a lot of manufacturing, but none devoted to exports.

• Export Promotion – much of manufacturing devoted to exports.

• 1973- US runs first trade deficit. GDP growth slows.

• As US GDP declines, Japan and Germany GDP increases. By end of

this era, Japan is second largest economy.

• 1983 – Death of ISI – Export promotion strategy takes over. DEBT

CRISIS in LA. US (Volker) sets interest rates over 20% to curb

inflation. Developing countries can’t afford that.

• Prior to 1973, trade is between firms and countries. Post-1973,

trade grows between firms. Neo-classicist economist predict that

trade grows between LDCs and MDCs, but, that doesn’t happen.

US-->EU-->JAPAN

Strategic Trade Theory:
Wednesday, October 7, 2009 09/16/2009

6) 1973-1990

7) 1990-2008

• Knowledge of
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

Trade: Non-Strategic Trade Theory

How do you know what trading partners will say they have

increasing rerurns to scale

Non-tariff barriers:

• Anti-dumping.

• Countervailing Duties.

• ¼ of all traded goods covered under some sort of non-tariff barrier.

• For textiles, there is the Multi Fiber Agreement -->

Bangladesh benefitted most from this.

• Steel: Trigger price mechanism. Carter Admin. If foreign steel

drops below a certain ‘trigger’ price, we conduct automatic

investigation in anti-dumping.

• Voluntary Export Restrictions (VER): Japan, what if you voluntarily

restrict exports of autos to US? Do us this favor. By the way, we

protect you from the Soviet Union. Japan agrees.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Consumer prices go up, not as many cheap jap autos in the

market.

○ Government loses too, b/c no import taxes.

○ US Auto makers win, but b/c of lack of competition, quality

declined.

○ Japan got the bright idea of exporting Acuras and Lexuses,

luxury cars with higher profit marines

• In Japan 60% of imports from US were subject to some sort of non-

tariff barriers.

• After Kobe earthquake, Motorola offered to export cellphones for

free and Tylenol for free. Japanese Department of health argued

that the Japanese anatomy was different and Tylenol pills were too

big, so that US couldn’t export Tylenol.

• Uruguay round: more regional emphasis. Countries pursue this

strategy b/c of fear that GATT would break down. Triggered by the

fear that big countries were going at it alone (namely US).

1990-2008

• Massive productivity increases
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09/16/2009

• Internet

• GATT converts to WTO.

• WTO more significant:

○ Actual mechanisms for enforcement.

○ Most countries join, including developing counties like China.

○ Unlike 70s, developing countries adopt Washington

consensus.

○ Trade barriers drop.

○ Blowback:

 Countries start engaging in multilateral agreements

outside of WTO.

 Populist reaction to trade epitomized by ‘Battle in

Seattle’

• Drivers of trade: absence of war and technology

Why FDI?

• Transaction Costs lower

• Product Cycle: Production moves to cheaper labor sources.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09/16/2009

• Increasing Returns

• Comparative Advantage:

• Leapfrog protectionism.

• Multinationals are better at Politics that domestically-based firms

FPI: Foreign Portfolio Investment (Stock, Bonds, other interest bearing

assets).

FDI started out as extractive resource.

Pre-1900:

• Security not an issue, b/c investors had back-up of national forces.

1914-1950

• Mexico starts nationalizing production facilities.

• USSR starts nationalizing. They offer compensation, but then say

that the Allies will pay those compensation.

• Stages of grief: anger- invade; barter, accept.

• During WWII – out and out nationalization. US nationalized german

companies, English did the same, etc etc.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09/16/2009

• Havana charter that proposed ITO, also discussed including

investment in ITO. Developing countries opposed it. One of

reasons that Democrats opposed ITO was that it didn’t allow for

liberal enough provisions on investments in developing nations.

Post-WWII:

• Coups – Chile, Guatemala – b/c of attempts to nationalize.

• Seven sisters (oil companies in Iran).

• Heights of nationalization.

• Major Oil producers start seizing private companies’ oil faciilites.

Seven sisters controlled 60% of oil production, but in 1973 – 25%

• Andean pact – Andean countries pledge that 25 years later no more

FDI.

• Rather than just compensation (what the nationalized asset was

worth), adequate compensation (we’ll pay whatever we want to pay

you, a ‘socially fair’ amount)

• New International Economic Order (NIEO)

○ Mandated Tech transfer

○ Limits on profit repatriation.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09/16/2009

• UNCTAD: UN Committee on Trade and Dev.

○ Mandates of NIEO

• G7 still has control over WB and IMF.

1990s

• Host country preferences recognize that they are profiting from FDI

• OED countries get together and form MAI – Multilateral Agreement

on Investment. – Common code of investment that all OED

Countries would follow.

• MAI:

○ No more onerous conditions on FDI.

○ Dispute settlement mechanism.

○ Code to limit investment incentives. Race to bottom –

countries/municipalities offering ridiculous tax incentives to

attract foreign companies (think dollar game).

○ Regulatory takings conditions: If you impose restrictions on

company, that amounts to a de-facto nationalism and that

company deserves just compensation.

○ Doesn’t work very well.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 09/16/2009

• MAI ISSUES:

○ Cultural issues – Euro Disney

○ Helms Burton – Sanctions to back stop trade embargo with

Cuba. Executives of companies operating in Cuba would be

subject to arrest if they entered the US.

○ 1998 –France pulls out of MAI and se fine!

• BIT: Bilateral Investment Treaty

○ Germany-Pakistan – first BIT – 1989-1999 1742 BiTs signed

○ Currently have 2181 BITs

○ US has a form letter for writing BITs

• Renewed hostility to FDI – but now hostility coming from developed

countries – b/c developing countries now have MNC!


Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

4 Recent Trends

1) Growing Hostility to FDI

• EADS

• Racism – ARCELOR – biggest European steel company (in

Netherlands) was going to be bought out by an Indian firm,

but the EU was opposed to a ‘brown takeover’ and instead

sought a Russian company as a buyer.

2) Growing LDC MNCs –

• Infosys, Tatta, Lenovo

3) SOE – MNCs

4) FDI based not in extractive industries, but in services.

Outsourcing, Intellectual Property Rights Strengthen

Money & Finance
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

• Monetary Relations: Currency Convertibility and Exchange

Rate Regimes

○ Current Debate on Dollar/Won exchange rate.

○ How do these regimes retard or promote trade?

• Capital Market Regulation

○ Coordination of rules and standards designed to assist

global capital markets.

○ Not concerned with trade accounts, but rather capital

accounts.

○ FDI,

○ Foreign Portfolio Investment

○ ‘Hot Flows’ (hot capital – money moves very quickly

across borders – speculatory arbitrage. )

○ Carry Trade: Borrow money in low interest context and

invest in country with higher interest rate.

• Macroeconomic Policy Coordination

○ Coordinated Fiscal and Monetary policy.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

TERMS

Money – Commonly accepted good or token used by a society

that fulfills three functions:

• Unit of Account – Functions as a metric to measure value.

• Medium of Trade – People actually use it for trade.

• Store of Value – Money is considered intrinsically valuable.

SDR: Special Drawing Right. IMF created this in 1968.

• Basket of currency: Dollar, Yen, Euro, Pound

Fiat Money: a money that has no intrinsic value.

Nominal Exchange Rate:
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

e = Local Currency / Foreign Currency

Real Exchange Rate: Price Level of Non-Tradables.

• Real Exchange Rate = (e*P^n) / P

• In theory nominal exchange rate should converge at real

exchange rate.

○ But in reality, it moves awkwardly towards RER, but

never gets there. Capital markets are one retarding

factor.

Balance of Payments: What money is leaving your country and

what money is coming in:

• Consists of two components:

○ Capital Account: Balance flows of capital going to and

from.

○ Current Account: Primarily consists of balance of trade

○ Capital Account = Current Account

 If you run trade deficit, you have to run an equal

capital surplus.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

Fixed Exchange Rate: Government pledges to act in the market

to buy or sell currency to make sure that our currency is pegged to

some mark. High Gov’t intervention.

Floating Exchange Rate: Gov’t allows private market forces to

determine value of currency.

Dirty Float : Some Gov’t

IN THE BEGINNING:

• Money made of precious metals

• Gresham’s Law: Bad money drives out good money.

○ Let’s say the gov’t says 1 gold coin is worth 18 silver

coins.

○ But the market says 1 gold is worth 16 silver coins.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

 So the arbitrager sells gold to gov’t for 18 silver

and buys gold on market for 16 silver. Eventually

gold leaves market (b/c the gov’t buys it) and the

market value goes up.

• UK was on a gold standard

• “As Master of the Mint in 1717 in the "Law of Queen Anne"

Newton unintentionally moved the Pound Sterling from the

silver standard to the gold standard by setting the bimetallic

relationship between gold coins and the silver penny in

favour of gold. This caused silver sterling coin to be melted

and shipped out of Britain.”

• Bimetallic Standards: GOLD AND SILVER: WHY?

○ Both were useful

○ Even though there were occasional supply shocks,

surprisingly little volatility.

○ Brissage: Cost of shipping of gold and silver (VERY

HEAVY)
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Some level of Int’l cooperation. Latin Monetary Union

was an arrangement in EU in late 19th c that regulated

common standard of purity for silver coins.

• 1879 Classical Gold Standard

○ Gold Standard had bouts of serious deflation, b/c there

wasn’t bimetal standards in US.

• Pound is Medium of exchange, Sterling is Unit of account.

• Countries were willing to deal with inflation or recession to

ensure that gold standard was preserved.

• Only 6 adjustments in exchange rates between 1890 – 1914

WWI:

• Countries go off Au Standard and start printing money willy-

nilly.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

• Interwar Gold Exchange. Significant Economic Shocks:

Germany has to agree to indemnity of ~$40 Billion (in

today’s dollars). At same time UK and France owed US

massive sums of $$$ from loans to finance war.

• Political Shocks: Expansion of voting franchise (Most men,

and some women)

○ Expansion of Voting Franchise ratchets up expectations

of Govt (welfare state)

○ Social Democratic Party arises.

○ Communism rises.

○ Dramatic shrinking of cabinet security (duration of

governments) to about 18 months in office.

• In 1922 – International Monetary Conference in Genoa: Let’s

get back to gold standard.

○ Agreement: peripheral countries would take whatever

gold they had and deposit it in London’s major financial

firms. In return, they’d get convertible currencies.

○ Continued UK colonized policy
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Also minimized gold coinage. Allow for gold standard

without having to have all that gold. GB, FR, and US

would all make gold available and convertible.

○ League of Nations (that era’s UN and IMF) – could loan

money to nations.

○ US doesn’t send political representatives to Genoa,

rather bankers like Edward Kemeror:

 Jeff Sachs of his era.

 Was prostheletizing Gold Standard.

 Wherever Ed
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009

MONETARY POLICY

Y: C+I+G+X-M-T

(GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending+ Exports

– Imports – Taxes)

Y = C+S

(GDP=Consumption + Savings)
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

C+S = C + I + G – T + X - M

S-I = (G-T)+(X-M)

Although US runs huge trade deficit against china, No depreciation of

Yuan, b/c China is buying massive amounts of dollar-denominated debt.

Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: What circumstances

encourage this?

• 1) Global Crisis: It is likely that global crises are triggered

by lack of MPC.

• 2) Rising Macroeconomic Imbalances: For Eg: A country

runs a huge budget deficit (or surplus) or tight monetary

policy (with double digit real interest rates) or massive

Trade surplus/deficit.

○ Some market mechanisms usually push imbalances

back toward equilibrium. IF they don’t, something

might be screwy.

○ Negative Trade Externalities.
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Large budget deficits push up interest rates

○ Larger the imbalances , the more jittery markets get –

on the look out for policy signals.

LOW SUPPLY

• A)THE GOLD STANDARD:

○ Deflation was tolerated (despite crippling effects)

○ Willing to tolerate recession to have coordinate

○ Minimal political pressures for govt to diverge from

thses polcies

 Limited understanding of connection between intl

pol. Coordi. And domestic effects.

○ Fair amount of cooperation, but the world doesn’t look

like this now.
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

• B) 1920’s Isolated episodes of

• C) Bank runs, loss of faith in ability of major western

countries to coordinate.

• D) Bretton Woods –

○ Significant capital controls so link between exchange

rate and macroeconomic policy gets severed.

○ Unholy trinity

 Fixed exchange rates

 Capital mobility (bretton woods gave this up and

could pursue ‘embedded liberalism’)

Attempts to coordinate Macroeconomic Policy:

A) G-7: Only works as coordination mechanism when

things get really out of whack, like during 80s when US dollar was

severly overvalued.

- Low incentive to adjust.
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

- Easier for surplus countries to maneuver with monetary + fiscal

policies.

B) Structural Impediments Initiative:

○ Japan – US

○ US: Japan needs to allow large retailers to set up shops

and provide a stronger social safety net so that people

can consume more.

○ Japan: US needs to consume less and save more.

○ Somewhat successful. GHWB raises taxes in 1990,

Clinton in 1993 – reduces budget deficit.

○ Unclear if these steps were related to structural

impediments initiative.

C) EU

• Maastricht criteria would allow countries to stay out of

reckless fiscal spending and get the benefits of being part of

the euro --> Growth and Stability Pact (GSP)

• FR + GE liked this b/c it made Euro comptetitive to the

dollar. IT liked it b/c it helps knock off zeros from lire.
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

• By 2005 – the three largest economies, FR, GR, IT are not

compliant with the growth and stability pact. EU took the

countries to court. So GSP was rewritten. (IT WAS STUPID,

ANYWAY).

D) G-20: Proposed mechanism to address persistent

macroeconomic embalances. Did this in Fall 2009 in Pittsburg

Summit.

• Countries engage in peer-to-peer evaluation of

macroeconomic policy.

• Will this work? Quien Sabe…

• Peer-to-peer surveillance allows countries to monitor

without being overly saction-monius!

• More like Pacific Rim. Could work well…. But

• But, we are seeing it as ineffective already. China is not

listening to global whining about the RMB.
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

US Politicians need a better cover to reduce budget deficits

than saying: China wants us to!

1) Distributional Costs

• Adjustments carry relative sacrifices. Difficult to gain

political capital for these adj. better to influence other actor

to change instead.

2) Prisoner’s Dilemma: In response to 2008/2009 Crisis

(FISCAL STIMULUS)

• Most big economies agree that governments need to engage

in aggressive spending.

• Most govts like this (+jobs +investment + services), except

those that have been burned but hyper inflation in the past.

• Germans for example, don’t have to worry about domestic

stimulus, b/c if China, US, UK boost spending, Germany’s

export-driven economy benefits without having to increase

fiscal spending!
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

Reduces incentives for all countries to cooperate.

Could help reduce this by enforcement… but…..

3) No Enforcement Mechanism – so incentives to coordinate

dissipate.

DREZNER NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT G-20 WILL WORK. PERHAPS

SOME POLICY EDUCATION…

INTERNET: What are the Internet’s Effects in the GPE?

• Completely New:

○ Most topics so far have very long histories.

○ Reduction in time and cost of information exchange is

unprecedented.

○ Good symbol of globalization

• Paradox of ‘Globalization Studies’
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Friedman: World is flat. States look clunky and

obsolete.

○ Awesome means for communication

• Creation of Internet: (Previously known as: ARPANET) – for

gov’t purposes. Means of communication post-nuclear

attack.

○ Decentralized network. Couldn’t cut out 1 node and

destroy network.

• No Centralized Regime that governs the internet.

1) WHY NO SINGLE REGIME?

2) WHY NO DISAPPEARNCE OF STATES?

• Stringent regulation of internet that varies from country to

country. Why are they able to do this?

3) EXPLAINING VARIATION IN REGIMES

1) US Department of Commerce: Controls Root Server
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009

2)MNC’s

• Intellectual Property

• Free Reign

○ Sales

○ Marketing

3) GEEKS

• Left-libertarian Outlook:

○ Internet should be free (OPEN SOURCE)

4) Developed Economies:

5) LDCs

• Want to control political externalities while enjoying the

positive commercial opportunities

6) IGOs: See Internet as a great big opportunity for regulating.

7) NGOs: Want info to be free. Exploit all possibilities of

internet and allow unfettered access to it without Govt or MNC

involvement.
Monday, October 26, 2009 09/16/2009
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

Divergent restrictions

Regulation is never fool-proof : You could buy Nazi propaganda in

France if you really wanted to, but the barriers and risks are high.

Illegal to own a laptop in Myanmar.

In US, paranoia that the gov’t will have too much info.

In EU, paranoia about MNCs getting too much info.

In developing world: Not too concerned

Data Protection Directive: A EU law that protects user info

online

In US, Americans wanted private standards, not gov’t

controlled directive.
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009

US and EU Agree to SAFE HARBOUR:

• Rival standards outcome (US and EU have different

standards)

• Outcome: hypocritical regime

• US compliance not so great

• EU doesn’t really enforce safe harbor accord.

• Situation of benign neglect: like don’t ask don’t tell.

• US wants into EU market

Convergence in Technical Protocols:

• Everyone agrees, but there are still politics:

○ EG: Domain names: DNS

 Internet used to be run by geeks.

 As internet commercialized, increased desire for

top-level domains: .com, .edu, .org, .biz

 ITU has meeting on ad-hoc in Geneva, but no

consult with EU or US gov’t.
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009

 EU doesn’t like ad-hoc agreement b/c the US has

too much control.

 US doesn’t like it b/c it wasn’t consulted.

 US writes white paper on internet. Big town hall

meeting with a lot of geeks. The geeks hailed this

as the internet’s constitutional convention.

 But there was also a separate track: the US was

also negotiating with the Internet Task Force,

Japan, Australia and the EU to create ICANN:

Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and

Numbers (Non-profit registered in California).

 Great for Governments. Gov’ts have privilege, but

relatively opaque access. B/C it is not an

international corporation, no need to publish

public records.

 Furthermore the core of the internet remains with

US govt.

 EU likes this b/c they get somewhat more access

than under ITU.
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009

 Some gov’ts upset, and there were efforts to

create alternative sources of authority.

 WSIS: Equivalent to UN of internet – utterly

ineffective.

• INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY: Incentives R&D and creativity

○ 1) Patents

 Tech know-how or invention

 Process or product

○ 2) Copyrights

 Creative works: books, films, art, music

○ 3) Trademarks

 Logos, brands
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009

• For intellectual property producers we want protection.

• For intellectual property net consumers (dev. World) we

want dissemination.

1883 Paris Convention:

• Covers patents, trademarks and industrial design.

• Foreign patent holders and domestic patent holders treated

equally.

• Right of priority (to sell or disseminate) belongs to patent

holder.

1886 Berne Convention:

• Extends norms of Paris Convention to Copyrights.

• If you publish a book (for example) in any signatory country,

you effectively have a global patent.

• US doesn’t sign until 1986!!

1893 WIPO
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009

• Enforcement agreement.

US is the biggest problem country during this period.

Three most important patent-dependent industries:

• Pharmaceuticals

• Entertainment

• Software

• IN THESE THREE INDUSTRIES, MANUFACTURE OF PRODUCT

IS LOW COST. DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH COST.

GSP: Generalized system and preferences: lowered tariffs for

technology.

By late 80s. US creates ‘ Super 301’ where US determines

which countries were not compliant with patent law and therefore

vulnerable to trade sanctions.
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009

Pfizer and IBM lobby to have intellectual property rights on GATT

agenda in Uruguay round.

• Pfizer and IBM lobby to get EU and Japanese companies to

lobby their gov’ts to get Int.Prop. on Uruguay Agenda.

• MDCs out-gun LDCs on IP.

Geographical Indicators:

• Darjeeling Tea, Basmati Rice, Scotch, Tequila, Bourbon

US MAJORILY EXPLOITED THIS:

• US Gov’t has to make complaints on behalf of companies.

• AIDS is different than most pandemics:

○ Most pandemics hit old and very young: not a big deal

for economy.

○ AIDS affects working population the most – major hit

to economy.

 So US says it is a security issue (Dec. 1999).


Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009
Monday, November 9, 2009 09/16/2009

2008 Financial Crisis

HTF did this happen?

A) Bretton Woods II

• No more loans from IMF with embarrassing strings attached.

• Wanted Fuck You money – allowing them to go to IMF during

economic crisis with out hat in hand.

○ 1) Asian accumulation of dollars.

 Currency reserves as percentage of GDP at

unprecedented levels.

 What are opportunity costs?

 Use $$ to buy:

 a) Cash

 b) T-bills
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

 c) GSE: Government Sponsored Enterprises

(Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) – buying

mortgage backed securities from FM^2

 d) Equity (stocks)

 e) Buy real estate

○ 2) Pegged, Undervalued exchange rates –

○ 3) US – Led Consumption Growth

 US consumption rises to 72% of GDP

 China’s, by contrast, is 35% of GDP

 US Current Account Deficit is $800B – 7% of GDP,

1.7% of Global Output!

 Currency speculators eyeing this. Major risk of

run on $$

○ CHINA – Net exports 25-35% of China’s GDP growth.

 Chinese implicit compact: we provide better than

8% growth, you don’t protest or mass in the

streets.
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

 China’s only development option is to create a

viable export sector.

 Chinese government can’t mess with this, b/c it

would also mess with their only reliable engine of

growth.

○ OPEC:

 also doesn’t want to screw with this. Their

financial markets can’t handle the surplus

revenues they are generating from sale of oil, so

they invest in US financial markets.

 OPEC- US consumption is fueling their success

○ US: Could have mitigated risk, but the political costs

were too high

FOR EACH MAJOR PLAYER, ADJUSTMENT COSTS TOO HIGH TO

SHIFT FROM STATUS QUO.

• Massive Capital Flows going into the US:

○ (Opposite of Classic position: capital should be flowing

to the places with least capital)
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

• Greenspan Put: the guarantee that if there is a crisis, Alan

Greenspan will cut interest rates. This causes asset prices to

go way up. A lot of capital sloshing around, limited amount

of assets, so prices go up.

• Economists were worried, but about a run on the dollar.

What really happened was a crisis pertaining to where the

dollars were being invested.

B) FINANCIAL DEREGULATION, INNOVATION

• Elimination of limitations on Stock Trading.

• Causes stock brokers to lower brokerage fees

• Market forces also influenced firms to engage in riskier

behavior to generate profits.

○ 1) Use of Derivatives

○ 2) Greater use of Leverage
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

 Higher rates of borrowing, lower capital

requirements.

○ 3) Glass /Steagall

○ 4) Basel II

 Mark-to-Model

• INNOVATION:

○ 1) Hedge Funds + Private Equity

 Designed to secure investments from undue risk

○ 2) Subprime Mortgages:

 Adjustable rate mortgages

 Interest-only mortgages

 2008 – $2 Trillion tied up in subprime mortgages.

○ 3) Securitized Mortgages

 The bank that gets the mortgage sells it.

 Mortgage is a bond – if we can sell the mortgage

as a bond, we can get our money upfront.
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

 But, if the original issuer could sell off mortgage

bond, the buyer would have little information

about mortgage.

 In theory the bond agencies would rate the

mortgages through counter party

surveillance.

 But these get securitized and packaged and

no one party has enough of these ‘bonds’ to

worry about enforcing strict counter party

surveillance.

 Credit Default Swaps created to hedge

against downside risk. It is a bet on the

performance of the underlying bond. This

allowed investment banks to set up a

‘Fantasy Football version’ of the housing

markets. You create secondary markets that

reacted to the ‘real’ real estate market.

○ 4) Prime Brokerage Firms: ‘RE-HYPOTHECATION”
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

 Investment banks start to function as banks for

hedge funds and private equity. The prime

brokerage firms took this money and invested it

somewhere else. Like:

 The Carry Trade: Borrow money from low

interest places and invest it in places with

high interest rates (Iceland, for example).
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

• C) PREVAILING IDEOLOGICAL CONSENSUS:

○ Efficient Market Hypothesis

○ Great Moderation: Until 2008, every recession since

1929 was shorter and less-damaging than the previous

recession. This rests on the belief that Monetary Policy

was simplier than we realized:

 Focus on keeping interest rates low

 Cut interest rates when it looks like a recession is

starting to brew

 Don’t worry about asset bubbles

○ A Generation without a recession (since 1987).

“Financial crises happen in other countries”

Risk management is a science.

○ Asset valuation models: Very little probability placed

on extreme out of bounds events.
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Private Graders: Moody’s trusted.

• D) POLITICAL ECONOMY OF BUBBLES
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

2008 Crisis – Cont…

• 4) Political Economy of Bubbles

○ As an investor, if you think that everyone else will

invest in a particular asset, it is rational to invest in

that asset, even if you don’t believe it is the strongest

asset. Even if you think an asset is overvalued, if

everyone is investing in it, you should too.

○ People were pointing out overvaluation of some of

these assets (Cassandras), but they were often

assholes. Not often socialized (you have to have an off-

kilter perspective to go against the flow). Often raving

egomaniacs.

○ A few characters shorted all mortgage companies

around. Started going to all stockholder meetings and

telling CEOs that the default rate was going to be 50%

in one year. But these people were disregarded as

cranks.
Monday, November 9, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Futhermore, the longer it takes for these Cassandra

predictions to come true, the more disregarded is the

Cassandra.

○ CHEAP CREDIT:

 Whole new class of homeowners, which in US is

generally seen as a positive thing.

 Asset prices go up up up. (in interest of new class

of homeowners)

 Savings decrease. If capital gains are shooting

up, no reason to save.

 Because asset prices rose in unimpeded manner

for almost 20 years, you started to see strange

behavior.

 Flippers + Chartists

 Politics of Counterfactuals:

 Easy to say we are living in an asset bubble

and that something needs to be down.
Monday, November 9, 2009 09/16/2009

 If someone had regulated this growth, they

would have caused a recession. But they

would have averted financial crisis. BUT,,, it

is impossible to prove that this crisis would

have actually happened and the regulator

would have been blamed for causing the

recession.

 BERNAKE: Capital rushing into the United States

--> b/c US was looking good. A dynamic market.

Thriving market, deep capital markets, no where

else looked good.

 EICHENGREEN: Dark Matter Hypothesis – US

investors outperform foreign investors. US FDI

outperforms foreign FDI.

 So bubble bursts and subprime mortgages

become ‘toxic assets’ . Banks holding massive

amounts of these assets, but no one wants to buy

them. Not usually on books.
Monday, November 9, 2009 09/16/2009

 General belief is that sumprime mortgage brokers

will go under, but that this won’t affect wider

housing market.

 We are in a recession. Fed and other Central

banks trying to provide cheap credit to financial

sector.

 March 2008 – Bear Stearns goes under.

○ LIBOR: London Inter-bank Offer Rate

 Starts shooting up in March 2008. This means

that banks lose trust in other banks.

 FED responds by lowering interest rates, increase

credit facilities and they start arranging for failing

firms to be taken over.

 Balance Sheets for Fannie/Freddie look awful.

 September 2008 LIBOR Shoots up.

 9/7/08 – Treasury Dept. steps in to say that they

will start a gov’t conservancy of FM/FM but…

9/15 --> Lehman Bros goes under.
Monday, November 9, 2009 09/16/2009

 When LB went under, no one understood the role

LB had in credit default swaps.

 9/16 Treasury buys 85% of AIG – the primary

holder of credit default swaps. Bad news, as all

companies want to cash in on Credit Default

Swap.

 As Lehman goes under, any firm that held assets

with LB is in deep trouble. The first firm that is

affected by this is the Reserve Primary Fund (a

friggin Money Market account!) ---> RPF broke a

buck. $1 share of RPF = less than $1. ALL HELL

BREAKS LOOSE. Every financial investor says that

if RPF goes under, nothing is safe anymore. So

there is a run on the financial sector.

 LIBOR goes from 50 basis points to 350 basis

points.

 TED SPREAD: Dif between LIBOR and US Treasury

Bonds shoots up.

 GWB is at best a lame duck. And he never really

opens his mouth about the financial crisis.
Monday, November 9, 2009 09/16/2009

 During crisis, GWB defers to three people: Hank

Paulsen, Tim Geitner, and Ben Bernake.

 Congress is asked to pass TARP: Temporary Asset

Relief Program.

 Congress doesn’t pass it. Stock market falls 8%.

 Politicians saw the counterfactual. When public

saw TARP wouldn’t pass, the stock market tanks.

○ Sovereign Wealth funds invested at the very peak of

the bubble.

○ Iceland’s debt: 850% of GDP

○ Switzerland: UBS alone had outstanding debts

equivalent to 600% of Switzerland’s GDP.

○ Once LB and RPF goes under you see flight to quality.

○ Chinese government let’s US know that they are

thinking of selling FM/FM assets (one reason the US

gov’t bought FM/FM).

○ QUALITY = US T-Bills. Determined to be the safest

investment.
Monday, November 16, 2009 09/16/2009

2008 Crisis
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

Financial Sector loses $4Trillion

Totl Asset Decline 50 Trillion Globaly

Debt to GDP prior to crisis: 40%,

Debt/GDP post-crisis = 80%

In the fall of 2008 some argued it was just financial crisis

Estimate that 2009 World Trade will decline by 9%

1) Efforts at Policy Coordination

• G-7 Leaders on the phone daily

• BRIC

• Sarkozy suggests we have a global crisis meeting. Bush

suggests convening the G-20.

• G-20 developed out of Asian Crisis as an action by the G-7 to

be more inclusive.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

○ {G-8 + O-5 (China at Kiddie table for Thanksgiving)}

(Didn’t convene)

○ Pledge to refrain from trade protection

○ Pledge to launch fiscal stimuli

○ Pittsburg – pledge to pursue more balanced marco-

economic policy.

○ Request by G-20 to have IMF, WB, WTO to conduct

surveillance of G-20 actions to make sure they actually

follow through on pledges.

○ Central Banks also meet.

• G-10 + China agree to joint interest rate cuts

• G-7 Agree to unlimited currency swaps.

○ Primary concern that there might be a run on a

currency (forget run on bank, a run on a country). But

by pledging unlimited currency swaps, they protect

against this.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

 This made currency speculators think about un-

secured currencies like SK, Sing, Netherlands. So

G-7 countries start agreeing to unlimited currency

swaps in key economies.

2) RESCUES:

• US:

○ Banks: Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, WashMu,

○ TARP: Direct Equity Injection into Bank

○ Fed agrees to act as insurer to whole array of

industries that its never meddled with before through

actions like commercial paper funding facility. Money

Markets insured by Fed.

○ Bailouts of Auto Sector: GM + Chrysler.

• EU

○ Germany, GB, bail out banks,

○ Swiss pledge 60 B to pay off UBS’ bad debts

○ Iceland:

 Start seeing capital surplus countries
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

 Russia and GCC buy stock to keep prices

escalated.

 China allows massive credit bender.

STIMULUS:

• Obama: $750 Billion Fiscal Stimulus

• China: $580 Billion Fiscal Stimulus

○ Only 25% came from Beijing. But the rest came from

local regional govt and national development banks.

○ So, not really as strong as they had pledged.

○ Also, targeted at investment, not consumption, which

could potentially exacerbate the problem.

• BRIC:

○ India: $4 Billion Dollars

• EU: Squabbles amongst self.

○ Germany deplores crass Keynesianism the rest of the

world is obsessed with.

○ Rest of EU have automatic stablizers.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

• QUANTITATIVE EASING: Print Money.

○ Chinese lending institutions lend $855 Billion dollars.

TRADE/FISCAL

• If everyone engages in fiscal expansion, trade doesn’t change.

• But, if you are Germany and you know that other countries are

engaging in fiscal expansion and that your economy is dependent

on exports, you can do nothing and ride free.

○ It this happens, USA introduces Buy-American and China

passes Buy China.

TRUST: Little trust in financial markets. Not a lot of lending

either.

Authoritarian Capitalist Countries become more authoritarian:

• Sovereign Wealth Funds turned inward

• Russia seizes assets
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

• China

LONG-TERM: L, U,W

• L–

○ Look at how countries have recovered from financial crises in

the past

○ 8/2007 – 8/2008 – Central banks were working hard to stave

off crisis, but it didn’t work

○ Housing Crisis fell by 35% over the next six years (relative to

start of crisis)(Reinhart and Rokoff)

○ Equity Market fall by 55% over the next 6 years.

○ Unemployment should spike by 7% (US is almost here)

○ Flat Growth for a while.

• U–

○ Interest Rates at historic lows.

○ Massive Fiscal stimulus packages

○ IMF’s target was fiscal stimulus equivalent to 2% of Global

GDP: They hit 1.8%
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Zarnowitz Rule: As hard as we fell, so fast will we rise again.

• W – WE ARE IN NO-MAN’S LAND

○ HUGE CRISIS + HUGE RESPONSE = VOLATILITY

○ Recovery caused bubble?

○ Uncertainty about value of toxic assets

 Might be worth less, might be worth more

○ Monetary Policy usually takes 14-18 months to cycle through

economy.

○ Threat to Central Bank independence. Central Bankers were

too lax in their policies towards credit. Simultaneous

legislation trying to curb their powers, right when they have

to raise interest rates.

○ MASSIVE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY!!!

○ Financial Regulation is a big WILDCARD. WHO KNOWS?

○ BUBBLE CRASH BUBBLE CRASH BUBBLE CRASH --> $$$
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

BRIC

• 1) Why Them?

• 2) How Powerful?

• 3) Preferences?

• 4) How Cohesive?

OPEC – Never really made it

NIC - Now Middle Income Countries.

Usually with developing countries, 3-5 year bursts in static economic

growth are common.

Key to IDing rising powers is to make sure they continue to rise.

In 1997, Jeffery Garten referred to ‘Big 10’

• Brazil, Mex, Arg, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, India,

China, Indonesia, Turkey

Then the IBSA
Monday, November 16, 2009 09/16/2009

Then O5 – Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Mexico

• China and India paranoid – they were in the minority. Mexico was

in OEDC, Brazil and South Africa were pro-West.

In 2003, Goldman Sachs comes out with BRIC idea: a lot of common

strengths:

• Sizeable Land mass

• GDP over $1T

• Population over 140 Million

• Foreign Exchange reserves over $200 Billion – none are truest

vulnerable to international crisis.
Monday, November 16, 2009 09/16/2009

• Attracting significant Inward FDI / and have MNCs engaging in

outward FDI

BRAZIL

• Richest of BRIC economies, but smaller pop-wise

• Abundant natural resources

• Energy Independent –

• Water and Food independent

• Best security situation within the BRICs, hegemonic power in Latin

America. Pretty good friends with US.

RUSSIA

• Demographics

• Heartland

○ McKinder – whoever can control heartland can control

rimland.

HOW POWERFUL ARE THEY?

• Reversion to Historical Trend
Monday, November 16, 2009 09/16/2009

○ India + China biggest economies in year 1

○ India + China biggest economies in year 1500

○ Stronger tech, military, navy, etc.

○ THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN THE LAST 200 YEARS!

• Technological Diffusion Long Waves:

○ Tech origins in hegemony. They burst ahead / break away!

○ Than stasis kicks in, diffusion of tech from core to periphery.

○ Now BRICs can leapfrog tech. Don’t have to invest in

landlines, and can invest directly in wireless capabilities.

• Russia is a big version of Kuwait – 80% of economy falls under:

energy, metals, or timber

• India is most vulnerable strategically. The most politically insecure.

○ New Economic Order was never imposed

○ India still sees itself as a wretchedly poor, predominantly

agricultural economy.
Monday, November 16, 2009 09/16/2009

“GHANDI WAS FUCKING INSANE – I can not stress this

enough.”

 Total Luddite -

• The only power that could expand without making people nervous is

the EU.

Preferences:

• Poor

• Anti-American

• Resisted Washington Consensus

• Varieties of Capitalism that are inefficient

• Public opinions about free trade in each of these countries are more

simpatico with US populations that US public!

Cohesion?

• Cleavages:
Monday, November 16, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Per capita income: Brazil and Russia well ahead India and

China

○ History: China and Russia have always been perceived as

great powers and have many of the perquisites of the great

powers (IMF). India and Brazil have always been at the

kiddie table.

○ Regime Type: Brazil and India: Democracies; Russia and

China not so much.

○ Consumer v. Producer

 China and India will be consumer states

 Brazil and Russia will be raw material producers

○ Security Tensions: Russia, China, India have a few security

tensions to deal with. Russia:China; and China:India. Brazil

is OK here.

 Disputed China-India border. Russia-Chinese have

border dispute. China-India-Pakistan – wonderful

mess.


Monday, November 16, 2009 09/16/2009

○ dsdf
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

STATE POWER IN THE ECONOMY

• State has played an important role

○ Creation of bond markets

○ Property rights protection

○ Some concern that if US were to retire all debt, it would

destroy the bond market.

○ Direct State ownership

○ Government actors assume risk during crisis.

• Not a new phenomenon: 5 big state actors:

○ 1) State Owned Enterprises

 Oil, pipelines, utilities, etc. – Goals are still profi-

oriented and act like other firms on the global stage.

○ 2) Central Banks

 Hold large amounts of security reserves to preserve,

protect and intervene in currency markets.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

 Hold onto this money by depositing it into private

intermediaries.

 CBs primarily are concerned with liquidity.

 As sums get larger, Central Banks start taking risks with

a portion of their reserves.

○ 3) Public Pension Funds

 Social Security Trust Fund – Obligated to buy

government debt.

 Calpers (CA pension fund) – Major player in

international bond markets.

 Source of wealth: Working Contributions

○ 4) Direct Government Purchases Across Border

 State buying farmlands in Africa.

 (Look at export bans – and reaction of food

importers)

 Military base leases.

 Official aid flows.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

○ 5) Sovereign Wealth Funds

 Government Investment Vehicles that acquire

international financial assets to earn a higher than risk-

free rate of return.

 In some cases, SWF are funds for future generations.

Save now for lean years ahead. Joseph set up first

SWG (7 fat years, 7 lean years). Rainy day fund to

break glass in case of emergency.

 Central Banks sometimes set up and invest in SWF.

 Why are they such Assets of Interest now??

 1) Size matters: 2-4 Trillion Dollars (larger that

private equity and hedge funds combined.

1-2% of total global financial markets.

• We don’t have a great estimate of what

SWFs own – they are not very forthcoming.

• We are not exactly sure what classifies as a

SWF – pension funds: Saudi Arabia, China,

Hong Kong. SAMA, HKSE, SAFE
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

 2) Rate of Growth: Grew by 25% a year.

Includes rates of return and increases in size of

principal. Funds come from energy (and other

commodity) exports, and manufacturing exporters

in the Pacific Rim.

• Project annual growth rates: 20% per

annum.

• $7-16 Trillion by 2016

 3) Countries of Origin:

• Commodity producers responsible fore

2/3rds of all SWF assets.

• Come from countries w/o a robust history of

international investments.

• 16 of 20 SWFs based in authoritarian

countries.

• 2/3rds of SWF investment is going into

democratic countries.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

 4) Investment Trends: SWFs starting to invest in

more risky assets.

• Bonds --> Equities ---> ‘Alternatives’

• Starting to turn inward post-crisis. Acting as

domestic investment banks. Pressure from

government to sure up domestic

investments.

POLICY CONCERNS – Conclusion: OVERBLOWN!

• 1) Lack of Transparency / Regime Type of Home Country

○ The more authoritarian the home country, the less

transparent the SWF.

○ CONCLUSION: The Jury is Still Out: Will SWF adopt

GAPP?

• 2) Sovereignty: By definition, servants of the state.

○ They might say ‘they are profit-oriented’, but there are

always suspicions of other motives: access to sensitive tech,

for example.

○ Can Sovereign investors be treated like normal investors?
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

○ CONCLUSION: Exaggerates Unitarian intent of foreign

governments. Likely that SWFs cause internal

squabbling. CIC lost a lot and thus the managers are

unpopular in China. As citizens learn more about how

bad SWF are at investing, they want there money back.

• 3) Market Integrity:

○ Concerns that these incredibly opaque organizations are

sitting on trillions of dollars.

○ Corporate governance: if they buy up a lot of Citibank shares,

they might take an active role (and get accused of

manipulation). But if they keep silent, they sit back and let

the management do their thing, SWFs are accused of being

corporate partners.

○ No info on foreign exchange positions for countries.

○ CONCLUSION: Yes. But there is no evidence today that

they have exacerbated market volatility.

• 4) Political Leverage:
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Possible that they could buy an asset and run it into the

ground.

○ Could threaten investment withdraw:

 EG: Libyan investment authority threatened to pull out

of African investments if Sub-Saharan Africa didn’t give

Libya a larger leadership role.

○ Soft power – Goldman Sachs wanted SWF as client, so

colored their perception of SWFs as good.

○ CONCLUSION: Two-way Street. If investments are

made in the US or advanced industrialized states, those

states have a big desire to see those investments

succeed.

○ CONCLUSION: Companies with SWF investment may

get preferential access to the SWF markets.

• 5) Foreign Policy Risks

○ China offered a $900M deal to Costa Rica in exchange for not

recognizing Taiwan.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Non-SWF Countries overreact to SWF by levying high tariffs

and engaging in protectionism.

○ CONCLUSION: SWF countries in Democratic countries

are much more likely to engage in policy setting than

SWFs from authoritarian regimes.

• 6) Existential Risk

○ From Western Advanced Industrial Nation POV:

 SWF represent a contradiction to free-market

capitalism. Perhaps SWF are an alternative

development model that does not require

democratization.

 If you are not a member of the OECD, this is unnerving.

○ CONCLUSION: Bunch of Crap. SWF have bad luck.

‘Govts have a long tradition of losing a lot of money,

this is not going to change any time soon.’ – Ken Rogoff

 Case in point: SWF got into financial markets at

the height of the crisis.


Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009

• In 2007 the G7 started to push for a new GAPP mechanism to

regulate SWFs. This pissed off the Middle-Eastern SWFs who have

been working for 40 years, while noveau-riche Chinese and Russian

SWFs began tossing money around.

○ China and Russia were last holdouts to GAPP. Entirely

voluntary, no obligations for SWG to adhere to it.

○ GAPP is all about transparency.

○ But if SWF don’t comply with GAPP, may see adverse

investment reaction.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 09/16/2009

Reserve Currency:

• Currency against which all others are measured. De facto

numerare.

Bretton Woods II  Dollar Overhang

Foreign demands has switched to the short term end, not long

term (T-bills)

US isn’t going to stop issuing debt any time soon. They will

continue to borrow and roll over debt.

B/C of all of this, there has been a lot of speculation that the

dollar should no longer be the reserve currency.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

Relatively Plausible replacement for the dollar = €

○ Governs large economic area

○ Holds value relatively well

• China

○ Blames much of global economic ills on overdependence on

US dollar as reserve currency

○ Proposed a ‘Super-Sovereign’ currency

 IMF staff thought it would be good

 Many countries bought the idea

• ‘Gold Bug’

○ Over $1275 / ounce

○ Indicates loss of faith in world economy.

○ China has increased holdings in gold 5x in the last five years

○ India purchased $100 billion of IMF gold
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

• WILL WE SWITCH AWAY FROM DOLLAR ANYTIME SOON??

○ No real history of this.

○ In the last 300 years, only one switch of international reserve

currency. Pound Sterling --> Dollar

• MONEY:

○ Unit of account – to what extent are international

commodities valued in $$$

 Dollar is still pretty robust.

 Most commodity markets are invoiced in dollars.

 Switching away from that would be costly.

 Most currencies are pegged to the dollar.

• 66 countries are pegged to dollar

• 27 countries pegged to €

○ Store of value –

 Even during crisis, dollar maintained value

 Flight to quality paradox:
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

 Dollar rose in value during crisis.

 Int’l community wanted an asset that was not

risky and relatively liquid = US Gov’t debt.

 Fear of crisis leads to plunging dollar, which leads

to concerns which leads to flight to quality, which

leads to buying the dollar, which brings the dollar

back up.

○ Medium of exchange

 86% of all cross border transactions involve the dollar

 38% of “ “ “ “ “ Euro

OPTIONS

• 1) Stop Capital Mobility - Do away with international currency

reserve:

○ Capital Mobility has lead to huge instability

○ Getting rid of Capital Mobility eliminates the Unholy Trinity

problem.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Brazil tried to implement capital control --> insignificant 2%

tax. Easy to evade.

BUT … Capital markets are TOO SOPHISTICATED

○ Even though the RMB is non-convertible, international

investors find way to invest in China.

○ Emerging markets don’t want to limit capital inflow

○ FINANCIAL MARKETS DON’T WANT THIS.

• 2) Continue with the dollar

○ If you took a snapshot of the world economy right now you

would conclude that global reserve should be the dollar

 Significant financial strength

 HUGE Private wealth --> part of reason that dollar

increased in value during the crisis is that Americans

investing abroad decided to bring dollars home.

 Debt to GDP load is much lower than Japan and EU writ

large.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

 US has security relationships that cement the dollars

role. Key capital exporters (Japan and Gulf Council)

have important security relationships with US. Japan

and Gulf Council agree to support the dollar in exchange

for military support.

 In 1973 Bretton Woods ‘Spelled the end of the dollar’ -

the opposite happened.

○ If you stick with the dollar you get to avoid the switching

costs.

 Dollar value plummets, countries lose a lot of money,

very publically.

 China, for example, got very upset when CIC’s

investment in Blackstone went belly up.

 Private sector loses also huge.

But…

 Flight to quality paradox continues

 Concerns about huge increases in debt issues in the

next 10 years.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

• 3) Gold – Good old fashioned commodity based currency

○ As store of value, Gold has held up well

○ Other countries show interest in gold

○ Domestically, US conservatives love gold

 Ron Paul- head of house financial services committee:

Into Gold

Drawbacks:

 Not portable

 Not enough

 Not an interest bearing asset. Doesn’t do anything for

you when you hold it besides gleaming.

 China has quintupled gold reserves, but aggregate

reserves have increased by 15x, so as a percentage,

China’s holding of gold fell in value by 50%.

• 4) EURO: €

○ Second in all measurements to dollar

○ Germans are fanatical about inflation. Germans run currency.

Strong Euro policy.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

○ Complications b/c of make up of EU.

 Not clear what the precise relationship between all of

the EU actors.

 Euro was created as a pact between France and

Germany.

 Political Uncertainties

 Weak countries. Ireland, Greece.

 Financial Depth

○ 10 years old

○ ASIA: Euro-zone is not the most dynamic economic zone in

the world. Is the future of the European economy a robust

one?

 Heavily regulated markets

 Bad demographic picture

 Pacific Rim Actors have a good relationship with US.

 Pac Rim actors have little to no influence over European

actors.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

○ European Central Bank doesn’t want the Euro to be the

reserve currency.

 Performance during Financial crisis didn’t help out

much.

 For a country to have a foreign reserve currency.

• 5) ¥£ CHF

○ Not huge economies,

○ Not a lot of trade in these currencies

• 6) Yuan, RMB:

○ RMB --> Not convertible

 Many people want it to be convertible

 Fastest growing economy

 China promoted use of RMB in GoangDong Province and

other examples. China taking steps to making RMB

convertible.

 BUT… China’s Financial Sector is much more repressed.

 China took the ‘wrong lesson’ from the financial crisis.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

 Short term switching costs for China would be the

greatest of all countries we’ve talked about. Reliant on

exports, exposing it to major economic shocks.

 Political Stability

 Authoritarian, Opaque as best. Private + State

actors are not comfortable about this.

 India, Japan, Australia, Russia, ASEAN countries,

not thrilled over this.

• 7) Special Drawing Right: Basket of World Currencies.

○ Created in 1969 as a way to create liquidity

 11% £

 11% ¥

 44% $

 34% €

○ Some countries clearly are interested in this.

○ How often do SDR weights get adjusted?
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

○ IMF have begun to issue SDR denominated bonds. (Only $500

Bn – compared with global assets of 100Trillion Dollars)

○ Political issues huge!

○ No way the EU or the US will agree to this.

 Surrender of monetary sovereignty that no one will be

willing to do.

○ SDR is not money. Functions as a unit of account, doesn’t

serve as a medium of exchange. Doesn’t serve as store of

value.

UPSHOT:

• Maybe Soft regionalization of Euro.
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009

• LUO PING: Chinese Banking Regulator “We hate you guys. Once

you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion [$1,000bn-$2,000bn] . . .we

know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but

there is nothing much we can do.”

Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory

Commission, said after a speech in New York that China would

continue to buy Treasuries in spite of its misgivings about US

finances.

Mr Luo, speaking at the Global Association of Risk Management’s

10th Annual Risk Management Convention, said: “Except for US

Treasuries, what can you hold?” he asked. “Gold?"”


Monday, December 6, 2009 09/16/2009

CLIMATE CHANGE
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 09/16/2009

• Science – It’s getting hotter.

○ 1999 => Sunspots

○ Hockey Stick:

○ Clouds --> Biggest evil in global warming.

 Water vapor responsible for 98% of Global Warming

 1) CO2 – Human Activity

 2) Methane

 8x more powerful in effects than CO2 in terms of

greenhouse gas

 3) Nitrous Oxide

 4) Fluoridated Gases

 Montreal Protocol for Stratospheric Ozone

Regulated

○ Human Activity is

○ CHINA is biggest contributor to greenhouse gas.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 09/16/2009

○ US biggest per capita

○ WATER VAPOR is ‘biggest’ greenhouse gas.

• BY SECTOR:

○ Energy (POWER) => 30%

○ Industry => 16%

○ Transportation => 14%

○ Agriculture => 12%

○ Residential => 10%

 NONE OF THESE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS ARE TARIFF

– SENSITIVE.

• Anything over 2C increase in post-industrial time is really bad.

• Status quo predicts 3C rise by 2050.

Going forward, it is impossible to make these types of long term

predictions.

BAD THINGS TO HAPPEN
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 09/16/2009

1) SEA LEVELS RISE

• 2/3rds of global populations within 10 miles of ocean.

2) DROUGHT & DESERTIFICATION

3) INTENSIFICATION OF WEATHER PATTERNS

4) MIGRATION --> ISLAND STATES

5) LESS FOOD, DISEASE VECTORS INCREASE

GLOBAL ORGANIZATIONS DEALING WITH CC

1) UNEP

2) IPCC

3) G-8

4) APP

5) MEF

6) GCS

RULES

1) UNFCCC –

• Investigate the problem.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 09/16/2009

• Everyone signs on (not surprisingly)

2) 1997 Kyoto Protocol ‘Annex 1’

1) REALISM:

• No real political changes have taken place b/c of Climate Change

• Only the EU has really done anything and that was for energy

security.

• Most powerful country didn’t sign on.

• NOTHING WILL HAPPEN.

• COAL.COAL.COAL.

2) LIBERALISM:

• If you look at the pattern, you are seeing a slow accretion of

agreements.

• Cooperation is building.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009 09/16/2009

• At a minimum the int’l orgs set up to deal with Global Warming has

gotten the world on-board in agreeing there is a problem, and

talking about potential solutions. That alone is a success.

• Classic Tragedy of the Commons. N player prisoner’s dilemma.


Wednesday, December 9 09/16/2009

Bank of International Settlements – 1933

IMF: 1944/45

IBRD: 1945

WTO/GATT: 1947

OECD: 1948
Monday, December 6, 2009 09/16/2009

NETHERLANDS – 2.37%

SWITZERLAND – 1.59%

FRANCE – 4.9%

ITALY - 3.24%

GERMANY – 5.98%

SPAIN – 1.4%

UNITED KINGDOM – 4.94%

24.42%

JAPAN – 6.12%

CHINA – 3.72% voting rights in IMF

INDIA – 1.9% voting rights

RUSSIA – 2.73%

SAUDI ARABIA – 3.21%

UNITED STATES – 17.09%

CANADA – 2.93%

AUSTRALIA – 1.49%

LAT AM:

BRAZIL: 1.4%
Monday, December 6, 2009 09/16/2009

MEXICO: 1.45%

ARGENTINA: .97%

CHILE: .39%

VENEZUELA: 1.22%

COSTA RICA: .08%

COLOMBIA: .36%

PANAMA: .1%

PERU: .29%

BOLIVIA: .08%

URUGUAY: .14%

6.48%

EMPOWER THE G-20

Governance Bloc)

What has the G-20 accomplished to date?

People keep crashing.

Spain, Netherlands both got seats at table.

G-2