educational data mining

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educational data mining

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Inderjeet Singh

inderjeetsinghit@gndec.ac.in

MPIT201226

Submitted To

Prof. Gurdeep Singh

August 30, 2014

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Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Data mining, writes Joseph P. Bigus in his book, Data Mining with

Neural Networks, is the ecient discovery of valuable, non-obvious

information from a large collection of data.

information from data.

quantities of data in order to discover meaningful patterns.

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Helpful in Analysing customer patterns for Banking System

Helpful in Law Enforcement

Helpful in Analysing Student Performance

Data mining may help scientists in classifying and segmenting data

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Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Classifcation

Data mining, writes Joseph P. Bigus in his book, Data Mining with

Neural Networks, is the ecient discovery of valuable, non-obvious

information from a large collection of data.

Association Techniques

Non-trivial extraction of implicit, previously unknown and potentially useful

information from data.

Clustering

Exploration and analysis, by automatic or semi-automatic means, of large

quantities of data in order to discover meaningful patterns.

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Classication

Aim

Predict categorical class/labels for new tuples/samples.

Input

A training set of tuples/samples each with a class label.

Output

A model (classier) based on the training data set and class label.

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Classication (contd.)

Building Classier (Model)

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Classication (contd.)

Using Classier (Model)

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Classication Techniques

ZeroR

ZeroR is the simplest classication method which relies on the target and

ignores all predictors.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Naive Bayesian

The Naive Bayesian classier is based on Bayes' theorem with independence

assumptions between predictors.

Algorithm

Bayes theorem provides a way of calculating the posterior probability,

from

P(c), P(x),

and

P (c|x),

P (x|c).

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Example of Naive Bayesian Classication

The posterior probability can be calculated by rst, constructing a frequency

table for each attribute against the target.The class with the highest posterior

probability is the outcome of prediction.

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J48 (A Java Implementation of C4.8)(Decision Tree Based

Classication)

Decision tree builds classication or regression models in the form of a

tree structure.

It breaks down a dataset into smaller and smaller subsets while at the

same time an associated decision tree is incrementally developed.

The nal result is a tree with decision nodes and leaf nodes.

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Core Algorithm of J48

The core algorithm for building decision trees called ID3 by J. R. Quinlan

which employs a top-down, greedy search through the space of possible

branches with no backtracking. ID3 uses Entropy and Information Gain to

construct a decision tree.

Entropy

A decision tree is built top-down from a root node and involves partitioning

the data into subsets that contain instances with similar values (homogenous).

Information Gain

Constructing a decision tree is all about nding attribute that returns the

highest information gain (i.e., the most homogeneous branches).

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Types of Entropy

Entropy using the frequency table of one attribute

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Types of Entropy (contd.)

Entropy using the frequency table of two attribute

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Calculating Information Gain

Calculate entropy of the target.

The dataset is then split on the dierent attributes. The entropy for

each branch is calculated. Then it is added proportionally.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Calculating Information Gain (contd.)

Choose attribute with the largest info. gain as the decision node.

A branch with entropy of 0 is a leaf node. A branch with entropy more

than 0 needs further splitting.

The ID3 algorithm is run recursively on the non-leaf branches.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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K Nearest Neighbors (KNN)

K nearest neighbors is a simple algorithm that stores all available cases and

classies new cases based on a similarity measure (e.g., distance functions).

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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K Nearest Neighbors (KNN) in action

Consider the following data concerning credit default. Age and Loan are two

numerical variables (predictors) and Default is the target.

We can now use the training set to classify an unknown case using Euclidean

distance.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Logistic Regression

Logistic regression predicts the probability of an outcome that can

only have two values (i.e. a dichotomy).

The prediction is based on the use of one or several predictors

(numerical and categorical).

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Clustering

Clustering (Dened)

A cluster is a subset of data which are similar.

Clustering (also called unsupervised learning) is the process of dividing a

dataset into groups such that the members of each group are as similar

(close) as possible to one another, and dierent groups are as dissimilar

(far) as possible from one another.

Two main groups of clustering algorithms are Hierarchical and Partitive

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Clustering Types

Hierarchical Clustering

Hierarchical clustering involves creating clusters that have a

predetermined ordering from top to bottom.

For example, all les and folders on the hard disk are organized in a

hierarchy.

There are two types of hierarchical clustering, Divisive and

Agglomerative.

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Partitive Clustering

Partitive clustering is categorized as a prototype-based model, i.e., each

cluster can be represented by a prototype, leading to a concise description

of the original data set. Two types of Partitive clustering are:K Means Clustering

Self Organizing Maps

K Means Clustering

K-Means clustering intends to partition n objects into k clusters in which

each object belongs to the cluster with the nearest mean.

L=

1

2n

k X

n

2

X

(j)

xi cj

(1)

j=1 i=1

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Self Organizing Maps (SOM)

SOM is used for visualization and analysis of high-dimensional datasets.

SOM facilitate presentation of high dimensional datasets into lower dimensional ones.

It is an unsupervised learning algorithm.

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Algorithm (SOM)

Initialization of each node's weights with a number between 0 and 1.

Choosing a random input vector from training dataset

Calculating the Best Matching Unit (BMU). The distance between the

input vector and the weights of node is calculated in order to nd the

BMU.

v

u i=n

uX

Dist = t

(Vi Wi )2

(2)

i=0

V= the current input vector & W= the node's weight vector

Calculating the size of the neighborhood around the BMU with an exponential decay function.

(t) = 0 exp t

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Association Rules

Association Rule (Dened)

Association Rules nd all sets of items (itemsets) that have support

greater than the minimum support and then using the large itemsets

to generate the desired rules that have condence greater than the

minimum condence.

The lift of a rule is the ratio of the observed support to that expected

if X and Y were independent.

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Association Rules

Example of Association Rule

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Association Rules

Apriori Algorithm

Candidate itemsets are generated using only the large itemsets.

The large itemset of the previous pass is joined with itself.

Each generated itemset having a small subset is deleted.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Visualization

Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) Analysis

ROC curve is a plot of the true positive rate against the false positive

rate for the dierent possible cutpoints of a diagnostic test.

The closer the curve follows the left-hand border and then the top

border of the ROC space, the more accurate the test.

The closer the curve comes to the 45-degree diagonal of the ROC

space, the less accurate the test.

Tree Visualization

Graph Visualization

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EDM (Dened)

Educational data mining can be dened as An emerging discipline concerned

with developing methods for exploring the unique types of data that come

from educational settings and using those methods to better understand

students, educational system and the settings which they learn in and grow

.[1]

Educational Data Mining (EDM) can be dened as an emerging discipline,

concerned with developing methods for exploring the unique types of data

that come from educational settings, and using those methods to better

understand students and associated educational parameters. [2]

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Suman and Pooja Mittal (2014)[3] described the various approaches and

techniques of data mining which can be applied on Educational data to build

up a new environment to improve performance of existing data and help to

create the new predictions on the data and performed the comparative study

of classication techniques are Bayes net, naive net and decision tree etc And

clustering techniques are k-mean, hierarchal, OPTICS and DBSCAN etc.

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Smita Bhanap and Rasika Kulkarni (2013)

Smita Bhanap and Rasika Kulkarni (2013)[4] discussed capabilities of data

mining in context of education by presenting a conceptual model for students

as well as teachers.

S. Anupama Kumar and M. N. Vijayalakshmi (2013)[1] explored the various

approaches and techniques of data mining which can be applied on Educational data to build up a new environment so as to give the new predictions

on the data.

Mohd Maqsood Ali (2013) [5]examined the role of data mining in an education sector and laid emphasis on application of data mining that contribute

to oer competitive courses and improve their business.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Manpreet Singh Bhullar (2012)

Manpreet Singh Bhullar (2012)[6] discussed about data mining , their dierent phase's, advantages and used J48 algorithm to predict the result of the

student.

Surjeet Kumar Yadav and Saurabh Pal (2012)[7] discussed the prediction

techniques that will help to identify the weak students and help them to

score better marks using C4.5, ID3 and CART decision tree algorithms.

Anuradha.Tadiparthi, Satya Prasad.R, Tirumala Rao S.N (2011)[8] proposed

the data mining technique called association rule mining can be applied to

identify the subjects in which the students are weak in the current semester

using previous semester's results.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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J. Ranjan and R. Ranjan (2010)

Jayanthi Ranjan and Raju Ranjan (2010) [9] discussed about the prediction

of higher education system pathway that can result in student preformance

improvement, retention rate and grant/fund management of an institution

in India.

Delavari et al (2004)

Delavari et al (2004) discussed a new model for using data mining in higher

educational system.

Waiyamai (2003)

Waiyamai (2003) suggested that the use of data mining in education can

help improve the quality of graduate students.

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Luan (2002)

Luan (2002) studied the impact of data mining on higher education. This

study helped to gain insights about the existing higher education worldwide

and its improvement from data mining perspective.

Ma et al (2000)

Ma et al (2000) visualized that the education domain oers many interesting

and challenging applications for data mining. First, an educational institution often has many diverse and varied sources of information.

There are

class and schedule information, alumni information), online information (online web pages and course content pages) and more recently, multimedia

databases.

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EDM in Action

Brijesh Kumar Baradwaj and Saurabh Pa (2011)[10] demonstrated how in

an educational system, a students' performance can be determined by applying data mining techniques on the internal assessment and end semester

examination resulting into a model that performs prediction weaker students.

Variable

Description

PSM

CTG

SEM

ASS

GP

ATT

LW

Seminar Performance

Assignment

General Prociency

Attendance

Lab Work

ESM

Possible Values

Third >36% & < 45% Fail < 36%

Poor , Average, Good

Poor , Average, Good

Yes, No

Yes, No

Poor , Average, Good

Yes, No

First > 60%, Second > 45 & < 60%

Third >36% & < 45% Fail < 36%

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Steps for Peforming Analysis

1

Data Preparations

Decision Tree

Measuring Impurity

Entropy =

pj log2 pj

(3)

j

6

Splitting Criteria

X

v Values(A)

|Sv |

Entropy (Sv )

|S|

August 30, 2014

(4)

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Split Information

SplitInformation(S, A) =

n

X

|Si |

i=1

|S|

log2

|Si |

|S|

(5)

Gain Ratio

GainRatio(S, A) =

Gain(S, A)

SplitInformation(S, A)

(6)

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Data Set for Training

S. No.

1.

2.

3.

4.

...

PSM

First

First

First

First

...

CTG

Good

Good

Good

Average

...

SEM

Good

Average

Average

Good

...

ASS

Yes

Yes

No

No

...

GP

Yes

No

No

No

...

ATT

Good

Good

Average

Good

...

LW

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

...

ESM

First

First

First

First

...

Entropy (S) = pfirst log2 (pfirst ) psecond log2 (psecond )

pthird log2 (pthird ) pfail log2 (pfail )

=

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

1.964

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Information Gain Calculation

|SFirst |

Entropy (SFirst )

S

|SSecond |

|SThird |

Entropy (SSecond )

Entropy (SThird )

S

S

|SFail |

Entropy (SFail )

S

Gain Values

Gain

Gain(S,PSM)

Gain(S,CTG)

Gain(S,SEM)

Gain(S,ASS)

...

Value

0.577036

0.515173

0.365881

0.218628

...

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Root Node Selection

Split Information

Split

Split(S,PSM)

Split(S,CTG)

Split(S,SEM)

...

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

Value

1.386579

1.448442

1.597734

...

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Gain Ratio

Gain Ratio

Gain Ratio(S,PSM)

Gain Ratio(S,CTG)

Gain Ratio(S,SEM)

...

Value

0.416158

0.355674

0.229

...

Decision Rules

IF PSM = `First' AND ATT = `Good' AND CTG = `Good' or

`Average' THEN ESM = First

IF PSM = `First' AND CTG = `Good' AND ATT = `Good' OR

`Average' THEN ESM = `First'

IF PSM = `Second' AND ATT = `Good' AND ASS = `Yes' THEN

ESM = `First ...

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Weka (pronounced Weh-Kuh) workbench contains a collection of visualization tools and algorithms for data analysis and predictive modeling together

with graphical user interfaces for easy access to this functionality.

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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Features of WEKA

Free availability under the GNU General Public License

A comprehensive collection of data preprocessing and modeling

techniques

Ease of use due to its graphical user interfaces

The various panels in WEKA are:

The Preprocess panel has facilities for importing data from a database,

a CSV le, etc

The Classify panel enables the user to apply classication and regression

algorithms

The Associate panel provides access to association rule learners

The Cluster panel gives access to the clustering techniques in Weka

The Select attributes panel provides algorithms for identifying the most

predictive attributes in a dataset

The Visualize panel allows to visualize data with various techniques

Inderjeet Singh ( M.Tech IT (PT))

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References I

S. A. Kumar and M. N. Vijayalakshmi, Relevance of data mining

techniques in edication sector, International Journal of Machine

Learning and Computing, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 46, 2013.

M. Goyal and R. Vohra, Applications of data mining in higher

education, International Journal of Computer Science, vol. 9, no. 1,

pp. 113120, 2012.

Suman and P. Mittal, A comparative study on role of data mining

techniques in education: A review, International Journal of Emerging

Trends & Technology in Computer Science (IJETTCS), vol. 3, pp.

6569, 2014.

S. Bhanap and R. Kulkarni, Student - teacher model for higher

education system, Current Trends in Technology and Science, vol. II,

pp. 258261, 2013.

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References II

M. M. Ali, Role of data mining in education sector, International

Journal of Computer Science and Mobile Computing, vol. 2, pp.

374383, 2013.

M. S. Bhullar and A. Kaur, Use of data mining in education sector,

Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering and Computer

Science, vol. I, pp. 69, 2012.

S. K. Yadav and S. Pal, Data mining: A prediction for performance

improvement of engineering students using classication, World of

Computer Science and Information Technology Journal (WCSIT),

vol. 2, pp. 5156, 2012.

Anuradha.Tadiparthi, S. Prasad.R, and T. R. S.N, Identifying weak

subjects using association rule mining, International Journal of

Scientic & Engineering Research, vol. 2, pp. 13, 2011.

48 / 50

References III

higher education in india, International Conference On Innovation In

Redening Business Horizons Institute of Management Technology,

Ghaziabad, 2008.

B. K. Baradwaj and S. Pal, Mining educational data to analyze

students' performance, International Journal of Advanced Computer

Science and Applications, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 6369, 2011.

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