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Monthly Update

IIP – October ‘09

• The IIP figure for October stood at 10.3%, disappointing everybody since the expected figure was hovering
around 12%.The same index registered a growth of -0.4% y-o-y in Oct’08 whereas a growth of 9.6%
(revised) y-o-y in the last month
• The figure was below the market expectations, leading to a fall of 50.41 points in the Sensex, pulling it
down from 17,189.31 to 17,138.90, just after the release of the data. Since the market was expecting a
better number, all the gaining sectors lost their momentum and took a back step
• The figure will also help RBI for the interest-rate decision for January. But, the figures are still not bad for
they have again hit a double-digit growth for the second time in three months. Acc. To Montek Singh
Ahluwalia.the figure is strong enough to indicate that India’s IIP is still in good shape and the trend will
continue in future
• The manufacturing sector grew by 11.1% y-o-y compared to -1.2% in Oct’08 y-o-y on account of increased
manufacturing activities. This sector has seen a major correction in its numbers. The electricity sector
increased to 4.7% from 4.4% in Oct’08 y-o-y. Manufacturing and electricity sectors both grew by 9.3% &
7.9% respectively in Sep’09
• The mining sector, posted a growth of 8.2% against 2.8% in the same month of the last year. It grew by
8.6% in Sep’09 y-o-y respectively. It has been consistently showing good performance since the last 3-4
months
• In the use-based category the basic goods, capital goods and the intermediate goods sector registered a
growth of 5.0%, 12.2% and 14.3% y-o-y respectively compared to 2.7%, 3.1% and -3.7% y-o-y respectively
in Oct’08. All the three sectors have performed extremely well: especially the capital goods segment which
posted negative figures for around 3-4 months starting from March
• The consumer goods sector has grown by a satisfactory 11.8% y-o-y compared to its growth of -2.3% in
Oct’08 y-o-y. The sector’s growth got injected by a boost in the consumer durables segment which grew by
21.0% y-o-y, a huge increase from -3.0% in Oct’08 y-o-y. Even the consumer non-durable goods
performed stupendously registering a growth of 8.1% compared to a growth of -2.0% in Oct’08. It has been
performing meagerly since last 4-5 months, registering low growth figures since last few months and even
negative at times

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Monthly Update

Exhibit 1: Sector Breakdo wn of IIP

Y-o-Y Chang e (%)
Particulars W eight (%)
O ct-09 Sep-09 Oct-08 YT D FY10 YT D FY09
G eneral IIP 100.0 10.3 9.1 -0.4 7.1 4.1
M ining & Q uarrying 10.2 8.2 8.6 2.8 7.9 3.7
Electricity 10.5 4.7 7.9 4.4 6.5 2.8
M anufacturing 79.4 11.1 9.3 -1.2 7.1 4.2
Food products 9.1 2.4 -10.2 -2.9 -10.0 -1.7
Beverages, tobacco and related products 2.4 0.5 -3.8 7.5 -2.0 18.8
Cotton textiles 5.5 10.7 1.7 -9.6 2.5 -1.2
W ool, Silk and m an-m ade fibre textiles 2.3 12.9 6.5 -4.8 12.7 -1.1
Jute and other vegetable fibre textiles 0.6 -15.5 -15.3 -3.3 -16.9 -5.1
Textile products inc.wearing apparel 2.5 16.3 0.8 -4.6 10.9 4.0
wood and wood products 2.7 18.9 2.9 -14.4 8.3 -10.6
Paper & paper products 2.7 0.7 -2.2 5.4 1.4 4.4
Leather and leather & fur products 1.1 2.4 1.0 -18.1 0.8 -3.6
Chem icals & chem ical products 14.0 18.7 20.1 -5.5 9.1 4.5
Rubber, plastic, petroleum and coal products 5.7 14.5 10.1 5.1 12.9 -2.9
Non-m etallic m ineral products 4.4 1.1 2.9 -3.3 5.8 0.0
Basic m etal and alloy industries 7.5 2.4 5.5 4.0 6.1 5.9
M etal products and parts 2.8 8.8 -7.6 1.2 0.1 1.8
M achinery and equipm ent 9.6 18.3 16.5 0.3 12.1 8.3
Transport equipm ent and parts 4.0 18.9 8.9 -6.1 10.6 9.2
O ther m anufacturing industries 2.6 0.9 24.5 11.0 11.6 0.7
Use-Based G oods
Basic G oods 35.5 5.0 6.7 2.7 6.4 3.6
Capital G oods 9.7 12.2 12.8 3.1 6.3 9.2
Interm ediate Goods 26.4 14.3 10.8 -3.7 10.2 -0.3
Consum er Durable G oods 5.1 21.0 22.2 -3.0 19.4 5.6
Consum er Non-Durable Goods 23.2 8.1 2.6 -2.0 0.8 6.4

Source: CSO

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(%) (%)

-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18

10
12
14
16
18

-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8

Source: CSO
10/31/2009
10/31/2009

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5/31/2009
5/31/2009
12/31/2008
12/31/2008

7/31/2008 7/31/2008

2/29/2008
2/29/2008

9/30/2007 9/30/2007

4/30/2007 IIP
4/30/2007
Monthly Update

Mining Sector
11/30/2006 11/30/2006
Trend in IIP and its Sectors

6/30/2006 6/30/2006

1/31/2006 1/31/2006

8/31/2005 8/31/2005

3/31/2005 3/31/2005

(%) (%)

-5
0
5
10
15
20

-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
10/31/09 10/31/2009

5/31/2009 5/31/2009

12/31/2008 12/31/2008

7/31/2008 7/31/2008

2/29/2008 2/29/2008

9/30/2007 9/30/2007

4/30/2007 4/30/2007
Ele ctrical Se ctor
Manufacturing Sector

11/30/2006 11/30/2006

6/30/2006 6/30/2006

1/31/2006 1/31/2006

8/31/2005 8/31/2005

3/31/2005 3/31/2005

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Monthly Update

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