The Value of the Blocked Shot

Karthi Vignes
Niranjana Narayanan
Pradeep Dutta
Sneha Gangadharan
Utkarsh Rastogi

 John Huizinga – University of Chicago professor
 Saw the talent of Yao Ming
 Became Yao’s agent and got him a contract with Houston Rockets
 Started to wonder whether all blocks were alike
 The results were quite startling
Huizinga’s Formula
 John Huizinga and Sandy Weil, unhappy with the current formula to calculate the
value of a blocked shot came up with what’s called ‘Block Value’

Block Value = Points Saved + Points Created

 Points Saved is defined as the effect of a block on the opponents expected points during
the current possession, and
 Points Created equals the effect of a block on the defender’s own team’s expected
points during the ensuing possession.

Block Values
 Goaltending – W
 Blocking the shot back to the opponent – X
 Blocking the shot out of bounds – Y
 Blocking the shot to a team mate – Z
 A Russell is a situation when player A’s shot blocked by player B falls into the hands of
Player B’s team, which goes on to score from the chance.
 Named after Boston Celtic great Bill Russell

W < X < Y < Z
Most valuable Shot Block performances
Player Season Blocks Value per Block
Tim Duncan 2008 149 1.12
Andrew Bogut 2008 137 1.10
Tim Duncan 2005 171 1.06
Chris Kaman 2006 110 1.05
Least valuable Shot Block performances
Player Season Blocks Value per Block
Dwight Howard 2008 232 0.53
Erick Dampier 2003 165 0.6
Stromile Dampier 2003 119 0.63
Erick Dampier 2004 146 0.66
Player Salaries – A Perspective
Player Salaries
Kobe Bryant $21,262,500
Shaquille O’Neil $21,000,000
Tim Duncan $20,598,704
Dwight Howard $13,758,000
The Teams seem to realize the fact that Tim Duncan was the more valuable Centre / Power Forward.
Year Defensive MVP
2007-08 Kevin Garnett
2008-09 Dwight Howard
2009-10 Dwight Howard
2010-11 Dwight Howard
NBA has awarded the Defensive MVP to Dwight Howard thrice and Tim Duncan ZERO Times
Then Why Doesn’t the NBA Value Blocks ?
 Counting is easy; Measuring value is hard

 People count quantities rather than measure importance

 Leads to faulty decision making
Limitations of the Study
 Not a perfect study; Has not accounted for many factors. For instance
 Increased number of fouls due to aggressive play
 Potential increases in offensive rebounds that occur when the shot blocker leaves the
player he is guarding to attempt a swat
 Can’t account for any intimidation factor
 Shots deterred by the mere presence
 Causing a shooter to change the trajectory and angle
 Still, the research highlights that not all blocks are created equal
 It’s the value of the block and not the block itself that matters
Other ways of valuing a Block (1/2)
 Blocked Shots by Shot Clock timing
 Another consideration is that perhaps the time left on the shot clock has some influence
over the likelihood of a block. It would seem logical when the clock is winding down
and the defense knows a shot has to be launched quickly.

Shot Type 0-10 11-15 16-20 21+
Jumper 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1%
Close-Up 13.5% 14.7% 14.9% 15.5%
Dunks 1.7% 3.8% 4.5% 7.0%
Totals 7.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.2%
As it turns out, each individual shot
type shows the right flow of being
blocked more often later in the shot
Other ways of valuing a Block (2/2)
 Def. Rebounding Percentage after a Blocked by Position
 Does the position of the shot blocker make a difference as to the expected chance of the
defense getting the rebound
Blocker All Jump Close O/B
PG 50% 56% 41% 23%
SG 56% 58% 52% 22%
SF 54% 55% 53% 20%
PF 56% 58% 55% 16%
C 58% 59% 58% 14%
Data Shows that Centers
and Power forwards (Big Men)
have a statistical advantage in
keeping the ball in play after
swatting it.
 Cricket –
 Vernon Philander
 89 Test wickets in 16 Test Matches
 On the way to get fastest 100 wickets
 But, has played all his matches only on seaming tracks till now (It helps that
he plays his home matches in South Africa)
 What is his value if South Africa tours the Indian sub-continent ?
 Hockey –
 The value of an empty net-goal in hockey isn’t nearly as important as a
decisive overtime goal

 Cricket
 England tour of India, 2012
 Beaten emphatically in the first test match (Pujara 206*)
 World’s best test bowlers Anderson, Broad and Swann helpless as far as
pure numbers go
 Second test match they call upon Monty Panesar (had played no test
matches between 2009 – 2011 and only 3 in 2012)
 Takes 11 wickets in Mumbai; swings the series England’s way
 Does he have more value than Swann ?
 Need Horses for Courses
Other Parallels
 People count quantities rather than measure importance and as a
result sometimes make faulty decisions

 We award certificates for perfect attendance but seldom ask whether the winners
learned more while in school

 We care too much about the number of stocks and not enough about their value

 The associates promoted in a law firm often are those who bill clients most hours,
but did they do the best work. Eg. Harvey Specter vs Louis – Suits(TV Series)

 AD length – Advertising performance should be measured against the objective of the
advertising in question not based on ad length
 The average 15 sec ad can deliver similar performance to the average 30 sec ad
 So select the right ad length based on the media buy – fuller media analysis be consulted
to determine the media efficiencies of buying different ad lengths
 Eg. – Scoring 2 edits of the same ad by looking at the average index score on key measures like
credibility, relevance, persuasion, appeal etc.

 Shelf Space – The same shelf space may carry different value based on the visibility
provided by each location
 Therefore the rate of various shelf space is calculated not just based on the surface area,
but on the value attached to each location. Eg – Primary shelf has highest rate, whereas on
floor branding has the least

America- The Land of opportunities ?
 What’s happening to GDP per capita doesn’t tell us much about what the typical
American is experiencing
 If Bill Gates & Warren Buffett’s income go up, the average income goes up. More
meaningful is median income – which is stagnating or even falling in recent years
 UNDP developed IHDI (Income adjusted HDI)
 Before adjustment US looks reasonably good in 2011 –FOURTH
 America’s IHDI ranking is 23 behind all of the European nations
 Rank change is largest of any of the advanced industrial nations
 Scandinavian countries rank higher than US
 America now approaching the level of inequality that marks dysfunctional societies
– Iran, Jamaica, Uganda.

Rank Country IHDI HDI
1 Norway 0.890 0.943 5.6 0
2 Australia 0.856 0.929 7.9 0
3 Sweden 0.851 0.904 5.9 5
4 Netherlands 0.846 0.910 7.0 -1
5 Iceland 0.845 0.898 5.9 5
Rank Country IHDI HDI
1 Norway 0.890 0.943 5.6 0
2 Australia 0.856 0.929 7.9 0
4 Netherlands 0.846 0.910 7.0 -1
23 United States 0.771 0.910 15.3 -19
6 Ireland 0.843 0.908 7.2 0
12 Canada 0.829 0.908 8.7 -7
2011 Rankings of the countries based on Income adjusted HDI
2011 Rankings of the countries based on only on HDI
America – The Land of opportunities ?
 Before the crisis, Europeans looked to America as a model
 GDP per capita does not provide the full picture of how well the economy is doing
 Success of an economy also depends on living standards
 For these workers, American economy is failing to bring increase in LS
 American economic engine has been run to give benefits of growth to small sliver
at the top
 America managed to increase GDP per capita, from 1980 to 2010 by three forth,
most full time workers have seen their incomes falling
 Little income mobility – the notion of America as a land of opportunity is a myth.
 The demographic dimensions normally used by marketers are usually, age, gender, family
structure, income, life-cycle stage, race and religion.

 Psychographic segmentation is a method of dividing markets on the bases of the psychology
and lifestyle habits of customers. It segments customers in terms of shared activities, lifestyle
choices, interests and opinions.

 Psychographic segments usually include demographic information such as age or gender, but
the richer descriptions emerge well beyond these characteristics.
 Media Planning – TAM vs TGI data
 Case of KFC – KFC opened a store in Japan ,huge market - tasted failure initially –difference in psychographic
profile of Japanese as against Americans – Eat in less qty - hates waste
 Case of Kellogg’s India – Hot meal vs cold meal

Thank You!