Base metals Weekly report

Mar 31st 08

Weekly Inventory data
P. Week Copper Aluminium 1033875 Zinc Nickel Lead 122150 47802 46725 121875 C.week 115250 103155 0 124450 49992 48275 Diff -6625 Warrants 91625 985975 -2325 2300 2190 1550 120850 48990 47500

C. Week

P. Week

C. Week

Prev week (21 mar)

st

C. warrants 23625 45575

C. warrants
29725

Canc ratio 0.258

Canc ratio 0.323

Trend neutral positive

30900

0.046 0.030 0.020 0.016

0.031 0.022 0.015 0.019 Neutral Neutral Neutral

3600 1002 775

2675 684 850

C. Warrants-Cancelled warrants, C. Week –Current week Comparison of Spot and future prices:
Future Mar 28- mar 21-mar Copper Aluminium
2996 8546 7665 2808 188 2285. 5 28500 31500 3000 2664 2886 222 31150 2872. 5

Spot Diff
791

28-m ar
8540 2941. 5 2325. 5

21mar
7789

Diff
751

C .Week Contan go

P. Week Backwar dation -84 Contango Backwa rdation 124 Trend Slight pos Slight pos

46
2762 179.5 54.5

Zinc
2359

25.5
2260 2828 5 65.5 33.5

Slight pos

73.5

Nickel

215
2865 350

Slight pos

Lead

14
2650 222.5 13.5

Neutral

US Economic indicator preview: Date
24-Mar

Time
14:00

Events
Existing Home Sales (FEB)

Consensus
5.03M

Previous
4.89M Home sales are unexpectedly increased by 2.9% Consumers are very pessimistic on the outlook of economy and income prospectus

25-Mar

14:00

Consumer Confidence (MAR)

73.5

75

26-Mar

12:30

Durable Goods Orders (FEB)

0.8%

-5.3%

Unexpectedly dropped to a lower level

27-Mar

12:30

Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q F) Personal Income (FEB)

0.60%

0.60%

28-Mar

12:30

0.5%

0.3%

Increased to certain level Real personal disposable income is expected to be lethargic in the 1Q from high inflation and negative employment growth

28-Mar

13:30

Personal Spending (FEB)

0.1%

0.4%

28-Mar

18:15

PCE Core deflator/Feb

2.0% mom

2.2% mom

Market overview All base metals ended in negative territory last week due to ongoing credit market crunch in US . US dollar increased to a certain level in previous week against most of major currencies. Economic data released in prev week did not provide comfort. US consumer confidence declined to a lower level shows that economy is under depression .Core PCE eased to 2.0% which is in the fed comfort zone indicates there is further chance of rate cut.Personal income rose to 0.5% but personal spending was lower compared to previous month. Key data and events for Next week Date
01-apr

Time
14:00

Events
ISM Manufacturing (MAR)

Consensus
47.3

Previous
48.3 Expect to fall further indicating manufacturing sector is under contraction Consumers are very pessimistic on the outlook of economy and income prospectus jobs are expect to fall further showing weakness in US jobs sector

02 -apr

12:15 ADP Employment Change (MAR)

-30K

-23K

04-apr

12:30

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (MAR)

(-)80k

-63K

04-apr

12:30 Unemployment rate(Mar)

5.00%

4.80%

Technicals:

Scrip

Close

RSI

MACD

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

CU

336.10

Slight positive Slight Positive Neutral

Positive

340

344

350.95

330.60

326.8 0 116.6 0 90.85

324.6 5 115.5 0 86

bullish

Al

117.95

Slight positive neutral

121.40

123.50

124

117.40

Slightly bullish Neutral

Zn

92.15

93.50

95

97

92.10

Pb

113.45

neutral

Slight weakness Weakness

117

120

124

112.5

107.1

101.4 0 1086

Slight weak neutral

Ni

1211

neutral

1272

1306

1356

1192

1126

Rangarajan.H 9894703007

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