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**Operation and Planning Under A Competitive Power Market
**

Stephen T. Lee, Senior Member, IEEE

EPRI, 3412 Hillview Ave, Palo Alto, CA 94304, USA

slee@epri.com

Abstract – A power market is a community of electricity.

Participants would benefit from knowing the effect of

transmission limitations on their activities in that community. The

Community Activity Room

™ ™™ ™

is a concept for treating these limits

as walls of a room within which market activities can freely take

place. The ability to analytically describe and visualize the

Community Activity Room in the state space of net interregional

power exports will enable greater understanding of the need for

more inter-state transmission superhighways. This metaphor will

also enable transmission planning and operation for a large

interconnected power system to evolve to the next generation of

probabilistic power system reliability assessment and integration

of reliability and market efficiency. This paper describes this

concept and illustrates its potential applications with some

examples.

I ndex Terms – Power System Reliability, Power

Transmission Control, Power System Planning, Power System

Monitoring

I. INTRODUCTION

Recent changes in the North American electric power industry

have caused dramatic increases in the use of the transmission

system. Transmission planning and operation have become an

increasingly important topic due to the transmission

bottlenecks and the curtailment of wholesale power

transactions as a result of congestion. Planners and operators

face tremendous challenges to maintain reliability and

facilitate efficient power market operation.

High-voltage transmission lines are needed for interstate

wholesale power transactions, just like highways are needed

for commerce. Transmission lines, based on their designs, can

only carry up to a certain amount of power, measured in MWs.

They may be due to thermal rating limits or to voltage or

stability limits. Regardless of the location and amount of

generators connected to the transmission grid, there are certain

hard limits on the amount of inter-state power transactions and

local network load service that can take place through these

existing transmission lines. These limits can be visualized as

walls, ceilings or floors (for simplicity, these will be referred

to as walls) that define the boundary of a Community Activity

Room (CAR) within which inter-state power transactions can

freely take place. The size of the room available for inter-state

™

The Community Activity Room (CAR) is a trademark of EPRI.

power transactions depend on the amount of local loads that

also use the same transmission lines. This is much like local

traffic using inter-state highways for local trips and causing

congestion during rush hours.

Figure 1 – Example of a 3-D Community Activity Room

(G1, G2 and G3 are net exports from region 1, 2 and 3,

for a 4-region system)

The number of dimensions defining the space of the

Community Activity Room exceeds the three dimensions of

the physical space in which human beings live. However, the

analogy is the same. These dimensions are the independent

amounts of power different areas wish to export above and

beyond their local needs, or in the opposite direction, the

amount of power they would like to import into their areas.

The parties that engage in power transactions with one

another, including generators, transmission owners, grid

operators, traders, load-serving entities, and ultimately the

customers constitute the community of electricity. Thus, the

Community Activity Room defines all possible combinations

of net import and net export for the different areas of that

community which would not run into the walls of the

Community Activity Room, in other words, the hard

0-7803-7967-5/03/$17.00 ©2003 IEEE

Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna Power Tech Conference, June 23th-26th, Bologna, Italy

transmission limits. Figure 1 shows an example of a 3-D

Community Activity Room for a system with four

interconnected regions.

The particular combination of net imports and net exports for

the areas within the community define the current operating

point, as a location inside the Community Activity Room.

Imagine that the current location is represented by a floating

light bulb that is lit. The wholesale power market drives the

movement of the floating bulb inside the CAR. The traffic

controller in the CAR is the grid operator whose job is to

monitor the location of the floating light bulb and to keep it

from crashing into hard walls. The consequence of it may be a

blackout. However, there are hard walls as well as soft walls.

Hard walls are constraints that involve immediate overloads or

immediate voltage violations. Soft walls are walls that will

move from outside to the predicted positions because of

outage contingencies. In other words, it is a hard wall that is

currently farther away but will slam into the predicted position

when some critical outage happens.

In summary, the concept of the Community Activity Room is

very powerful for communication with the public and also for

transmission operators and transmission planners to do a better

job of operation and planning.

This paper provides the mathematical basis for the Community

Activity Room and also illustrates its potential applications

through some examples.

II. STEADY-STATE SECURITY REGION

The concept for the CAR is based on the steady-state security

region, which can be formulated in both a full AC power flow

model and a linearized DC power flow model. For the purpose

of this article, the simpler DC model is used.

In a previous paper [1], the author described the mathematical

basis for the steady-state security regions using a set-theoretic

approach. The idea was to use the net MW power injections at

each bus as the independent variables and express the line

flows in terms of these variables. This eliminates the

intermediate step of computing bus voltages and angles as

would normally be required to solve a load flow. With the

direct equations relating line flows to bus injections, it is then

possible to express the line flow inequality constraints as

functions of bus injections.

The intersection of all these inequalities define the Community

Activity Room under the assumption of normal network

topology, i.e., without any branch (line or transformer) or

generator outages.

When branch outage possibilities are considered, the

inequalities would be different, reflecting the bus impedance

matrix for the post-outage network. An efficient algorithm is

well known for updating the impedance matrix for a single

branch outage. Therefore, the same form of inequalities

applies for different branch outage conditions.

With the traditional deterministic planning and operating

criteria which require that no overloads exist for any single

branch outage contingency, the steady-state security region, or

the Community Activity Room’s boundary, is defined to be the

intersection of all sets of constraints for the normal topology

and for all single branch contingency conditions.

For a large network, the number of these constraints is huge.

Fortunately, most of these constraints are redundant and can be

filtered. The relationships among the normal operating region,

the branch contingency security region and the generator

contingency security region are shown in Figure 2,

conceptually.

Normal Operating Region

Generator Contingency

Security Region

Branch Contingency

Security Region

Steady-State

Security

Region

Figure 2 Steady-State Security Region

III. VISUALIZATION OF THE COMMUNITY

ACTIVITY ROOM

A. Visualization of Reliability

The formulation of the steady-state security region has the

drawback that it defines reliability as a discrete pass or fail

criterion. If the operating point lies inside the intersection of

all the constraints, it is considered secure or reliable. If it is

outside, it is considered insecure or unreliable.

With the use of computer graphics to paint the outsides of the

constraints according to the degree of reliability impacts, and

to sum them up for each point of the state space, it is possible

to define a level of the reliability impacts or reliability indices

for each point of the state space. Using color to represent

different levels of these reliability impacts or indices, it is then

possible to visualize the degree of reliability as a complete

characterization of the Community Activity Room.

This paper describes the technique for combining the method

of Probabilistic Reliability Assessment (PRA) developed by

the author, in collaboration with researchers from Electricite

de France [2,3], with the Community Activity Room concept

for computing the PRI for the entire state space. The examples

in this paper were based on a system with 40,000 buses, but

only some aspects of the results are shown.

B. Visualization of Deterministic Criteria

The author applied this idea in a program called the CAR

Painter. The initial visualization effort did not include the

probabilities. Each contingency is given the same weight.

Therefore, the Community Activity Room thus painted

conforms to current deterministic operating criteria, which

require that all single contingencies must not result in any

thermal overloads or voltage violations. An example of this

visualization is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 – Community Activity Room Painted as Potential

Overload Levels (Deterministic Criteria) Shown in Color

Bands of 100 MW Steps, with SW Export = 0

In Figure 3, the horizontal axis represents net export out of the

NW region, and the vertical axis represents net export out of

the NE region. The SW net export is zero for all points in

Figure 3. The system shown in Figure 3 consists of four

regions connected to one another only. Therefore, the SE

region’s net export can be determined from the net exports of

the NW, NE and SW regions by the following equation:

SE Export = – NW Export – NE Export – SW Export (11)

The white zone in Figure 3 shows the state space within which

no constraint is violated, i.e., no potential overloads due to

contingencies would occur. The blue zone shows where up to

100 MW of potential overloads may happen, if the system

operates in that zone. The yellow zone shows the state space

where between 100 to 200 MW of potential overloads may

occur, and so on, with 100 MW being the step size of each

color band.

The blue dot in the center of the chart is the current operating

point of the system, with no export or import out of or into any

of the four regions. The short black line segment in a short

distance from the operating point towards the upper right

direction marks the location of the point on the closest wall

(constraint) as projected onto this plane where SW export = 0.

It is not located right on the boundary between the white and

the blue zones because the Community Activity Room in this

four-region system is three-dimensional and the walls of the

room may be inclined at an angle and not vertical. In this

example, the closest wall is inclined towards the center of the

room, which is why the closest point on that wall from the

current operating point (which lies on the floor of this room, or

the plane with SW export = 0) is somewhere above the floor.

Therefore, when that point is projected vertically downward to

the floor, it is away from the edge where the wall meets the

floor (which is the boundary line between the white and the

blue zones.)

C. Probabilistic Reliability Indices

In the past, attempts to compute a Probabilistic Reliability

Index or Indices for a combined generation and transmission

system have failed to provide a practical method. Defining

transmission reliability in terms of Expected Unserved Energy,

even though would be consistent with similar measures applied

to generation system reliability, turned out to require too much

details in the modeling of mitigation measures which in real-

life take place before customer load is dropped. In this new era

of decoupled ownership of generation and transmission

facilities and the separation between transmission and

distribution companies, it is the view of this author that

transmission reliability needs not get down to the measurement

of impacts in terms of loss of customer load. In the analogy of

airlines, air traffic congestion is rarely the cause of loss of

passenger lives, therefore it would not make sense to measure

air traffic efficiency by loss of passenger lives. Rather, it

makes more sense to measure air traffic performance by

congestion and time delay, weighted by the number of affected

passengers.

Likewise, the key physical performance measures of a

transmission grid is thermal overloads (or excedence of

stability limits measured by line flows), low voltages at

delivery points, and voltage collapse or dynamic instability.

EPRI developed a practical method to define and compute

performance indices based on these three types of undesirable

reliability impacts and combine them with probabilistic factors

that correctly and consistently recognize the different

contingencies that may cause these impacts. As described in

papers [2] and [3], this probabilistic factor is called the

Normalized Coefficient of Probability or NCP.

∏

∈

=

j i

OUT c i

i

j

c a

c u

CP

) (

) (

N (1)

Where: u(c

i

) is the unavailability of component c

i

.

a(c

i

) is the availability of component c

i

u(c

i

) + a(c

i

) = 1, for every component c

i

.

OUT

j

is the set of independent components c

i

which are simulated for situation j

The Normalized Coefficient of Probability is not, properly

speaking, a probability, but the ratio of two probabilities. It is

the unavailability of the component(s) divided by the

unavailability of the component(s). A Risk Index, e.g., for

thermal overloads, is defined by the sum of the products of the

NCP and the associated thermal overloads for all simulated

outage situations, as shown in the following equation.

{ }

∈

× = −

Situations Simulated j

j

OVimpact NCP PRI OV

j

_

(2)

with OVimpact expressed in MVA or MW.

In practice, simultaneous independent failures of multiple

components have exponentially diminishing probabilities.

Therefore, with an engineering approach to the problem of

estimating the risk index, it is only necessary to identify those

components the failures of which, singly or in combination,

have significant probabilities and significant impacts.

This method for Probabilistic Reliability Assessment provides

a transition from the deterministic contingency criteria and

makes use of the power of fast contingency simulation with

probabilistic calculation.

D. Probabilistic Reliability Criterion

In fact, the highly difficult problem of defining and agreeing

on a particular satisfactory level of Probabilistic Reliability

Criterion for transmission planning and operation is now

possible. The reasoning is as follows.

Because utilities have operated for years using the

deterministic criterion of single contingency for

transmission outages, it is possible to translate that

criterion into a probabilistic reliability index level by

computing the PRI along the single contingency walls of the

Community Activity Room and averaging them to a single

value.

In order to do this calibration, it is necessary to characterize an

advanced Community Activity Room in a probabilistic way,

which paints the color bands as ranges of PRI values. Then, by

integrating and averaging the PRI values along the walls of the

deterministic Community Activity Room, one can calibrate the

equivalence of the deterministic contingency criterion as a PRI

level. With this equivalence established, by operating to this

new PRI level, the true reliability performance of the grid will

be comparable to the past experience of operating under the

deterministic contingency criterion.

E. Visualization of Probabilistic Community Activity Room

By combining NCPs with the overload equations derived for

the deterministic Community Activity Room, the Risk Index

(PRI) values for all points in the state space can be computed

and painted in color bands. For illustration, by assuming the

same value of NCP for all single contingencies, the same

system shown in Figure 3 was painted showing the Risk Index

(PRI) values in color bands. This is shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7 – Probabilistic Community Activity Room

with SW Export = 0 MW and Each Color Band = 0.3 MW of

PRI. (Note: the border between the blue and the yellow zones

is the line with PRI=0.3 MW)

More research is needed to validate this concept and develop a

practical analysis tool for large systems. Figure 7 is based on

about 100 active constraints and the NCP values were generic

estimates assumed to be equal for all contingencies. The white

zone represents PRI=0 and corresponds exactly to the white

zone in Figure 3. In deriving Figure 7, contingencies with

order two and higher were not simulated. If they were, even

though their NCP values would be small, the white zone would

be smaller, and the border between the white and the blue zone

would not be the same as that in Figure 3. In fact, by

integrating the values of PRI along the border (or the surface)

of the white zone in Figure 3, using the values of PRI in Figure

7, will produce a value to equate the traditional deterministic

single-contingency criterion with the probabilistic reliability

criterion, as discussed previously. Another way of looking at

Figure 7 is to see the border between the blue and the yellow

zones as a reliability boundary at the constant PRI value of 0.3

MW. If it is determined by a reliability organization that it is

sufficient for an operator to maintain a reliability level of PRI

<= 0.3 MW, then the white and blue zones represent safe areas

for operation, and the border between the blue and the yellow

zones represents a reliability wall of the Community Activity

Room.

This effect is shown in another example illustrated in Figures 8

and 9, where Figure 6 shows only N-1 contingencies and

Figure 9 shows also N-2 contingencies. The border enclosing

the white area represents the boundary of operation which

respects the loss of a single transmission line. In Figure 9, with

both N-1 and N-2 contingencies simulated and the NCPs are

used to compute the PRI, the white area becomes smaller, and

the same border superimposed on Figure 9 shows that

respecting N-1 criteria (staying on the inside of that border)

incurs risks due to N-2 contingencies. Thus, if the system has

accepted N-1 criteria as satisfactory reliability, then one can

compute the average PRI along that border in Figure 9, or in

such modeling which incorporates all higher-order

contingencies as well.

Figure 8 – Probabilistic Community Activity Room

with only N-1 Contingencies

Therefore, it can be observed that if the community adopts a

probabilistic reliability criterion, it opens up the possibility of

enlarging the interior of the Community Activity Room using a

quantitative and consistent reliability measure. It will also

enable the community to trade off between reliability levels

and economic benefits from greater amounts of wholesale

power transactions.

Figure 9 – Probabilistic Community Activity Room

with N-1 and N-2 Contingencies

When an online Probabilistic Community Activity Room is

displayed for the entire community to see, it is quite

conceivable that reliability can be turned into an equivalent

energy product that has a monetary value. For example, parties

who would benefit from additional wholesale transactions

among themselves could determine that with their proposed

transactions, the operating point would violate the reliability

criterion by a certain amount, as seen in the Probabilistic

Community Activity Room. They also know the monetary

benefits to them. If an insurance policy can be bought based on

the additional risk and over the duration of the new

transactions, and the premium is less than the value of the

transactions, it may be an economical decision to proceed with

the transactions. Self insurance and commercial insurance

policies are both possible ways of enabling the tradeoff

between reliability and wholesale power transactions.

IV. CONCLUSION

This article has provided the foundation for the concept and

the technology of the Community Activity Room applied to

transmission operation and planning. The author believes that

the concept has tremendous potential for taking the power

industry into the next generation of tools for both operation

and planning. The key features of this technology are as

follows:

• It captures a complicated problem with huge dimensions

into something visualized in aggregated dimensions.

• It changes the mind-set of doing analysis based on an

operating point (or limited number of points) to a new

mind-set of analytically representing all operating points

in the state space.

• It enables the use of computer to pre-compute the

Community Activity Room for different network topology

conditions, and use the applicable views of the

Community Activity Room for online monitoring and

remedial actions. This enables instantaneous reliability

monitoring and faster operator guidance than what is

possible in today’s control centers.

• By displaying the online Community Activity Room in the

inter-regional dimensions for both the market participants

and the reliability authorities, it enables them to see the

close relationship between commercial activities and

reliability and it engenders the sense of community.

• It enables the computation of a Probabilistic Reliability

Index to jump from the current state of the art of a single

point computation to a complete characterization in the

entire state space.

• It enables a transition from deterministic transmission

reliability criteria to probabilistic transmission reliability

criteria, with a reasonable approach for setting an

equivalent probabilistic reliability standard.

• Eventually, when the availability and the quality of the

probabilistic data are adequate, the Probabilistic

Community Activity Room will create a new market for

reliability insurance and tradable reliability products.

V. REFERENCES

[1] E. Hnyilicza, S. T. Y. Lee, F. C. Schweppe, “Steady-State

Security Regions: Set-Theoretic Approach,” Proceedings

of the IEEE PICA Conference, pp. 347-355, 1975.

[2] V. Sermanson, N. Maruejouls, S. Lee, et al, “Probabilistic

Reliability Assessment of the North American Eastern

Interconnection Transmission Grid,” CIGRE, 2002.

[3] N. Maruejouls, V. Sermanson, and S. Lee, “Probabilistic

Reliability Assessment Application to the U.S. Eastern

Interconnection,” EdF/EPRI, 2002.

VI. BIOGRAPHIES

Stephen T. Lee (M’69, SM’75) is Senior

Technical Leader, Grid Operations and

Planning, in EPRI. Dr. Lee has over 30

years of power industry experience. He

received his S.B., S.M. and Ph.D. degrees

from M.I.T. in Electrical Engineering,

majoring in Power System Engineering. He

worked for Stone & Webster Engineering in

Boston, Systems Control, Inc. (now ABB) in

California, and he was Vice President of

Consulting for Energy Management

Associates (EMA). Before joining EPRI in

1998, Dr. Lee was an independent

Consultant in utility planning and operation. At EPRI, Stephen Lee is leading

technical research programs for grid operations and planning. He is also

active in cooperative projects with the North American Electric Reliability

Council (NERC) related to interregional operation and planning. He has been

actively developing new concepts and tools for power system operation and

probabilistic transmission planning.

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