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To: George Sinner for North Dakota
From: The Mellman Group, Inc.
Re: Sinner Leads Cramer
Date: September 23, 2014

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 voters representing the likely 2014 electorate in North Dakota,
who were interviewed by telephone September 20-22, 2014. The study uses a registration-based sample and has a
margin of error of +/-4.9% at a 95% level of confidence. Both mobile and landline phones were contacted. The margin
of error is higher for subgroups.

Our just completed survey reveals a wide-open race in North Dakotas upcoming congressional
election, with challenger George Sinner enjoying a narrow lead. Congressman Kevin Cramer earns
weak job ratings and trails State Senator Sinner by 2 points with only weeks to go until the election.
Sinner is well positioned to win a seat in Congress in November.

Sinner Has A Two-Point Edge Over His Republican Opponent

George Sinner leads incumbent
Kevin Cramer by two points,
40%-38%. Five percent are voting
for Libertarian Party candidate
Jack Seaman, leaving 17% of the
vote up for grabs.

Sinners lead is built on an edge
among independents and a more
consolidated party base both
necessities for a Democrat to win
in dark-red North Dakota. Sinner
holds defections to a minimum
among Democrats, leading 80%-
4%, while peeling away a
substantial number of votes
among Republicans. Cramer only
garners 72% of Republicans, while 16% defect to Sinner. Sinner has a seven-point lead among
independents (35% Sinner, 28% Cramer) and a huge 53%-19% lead among moderates.

2
2
0%
20%
40%
60%
Sinner Cramer Seaman Undec
40%
38%
5%
17%
Congressional Vote
Sinner Leads The Incumbent Cramer
+2
The Mellman Group
September 2014
Page 2 of 2
Sinner Is More Highly Regarded Than The Incumbent

Sinner enters the fall known to
slightly fewer voters, but he
maintains an image advantage
over Congressman Cramer.
The two candidates have
similar favorability ratings
(43% for Sinner vs. 44% for
Cramer), but Cramers
unfavorables are seven points
higher (22% for Sinner, 29% for
Cramer). While voters give
Sinner a positive job rating by a
7-point margin, they split
evenly in evaluating Cramers
performance in office (41%
positive, 41% negative).

Sinners advantage is even greater beneath the surface, where voters give him higher ratings on a
host of important character dimensions. He is 12 points more likely than Cramer to be seen as
caring about people like you, 9 points more likely to be seen as sharing your values, and 11 points
more likely to be seen as independent. He is also 13 points less likely to be seen as too much of a
politician, 9 points less likely to be seen as too extreme, and 8 points less likely to be seen as
putting the interests of his political party first.

Conclusion

While North Dakota leans strongly Republican, Senator Heidi Heitkamp demonstrated in 2012 that
the right kind of Democrat can win here. George Sinner is well positioned to follow in her
footsteps and win North Dakotas House seat this November.
1
1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
43%
36%
22%
29%
Fav/Pos Unfav/Neg
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
44%
41%
29%
41%
Fav/Pos Unfav/Neg
Sinner Has Lower Unfavorables And
Negative Job Ratings Than Cramer
George Sinner
+21 +7
Kevin Cramer
+15 0
Fav J ob
Fav J ob