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PAYBACK PERIOD

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The length of time required to recover the cost of an investment. The payback period of a given investment or
project is an important determinant of whether to undertake the position or project, as longer payback periods
are typically not desirable for investment positions.

Cash flow using profitability factor
4 Forces that demand satisfaction out of your cash flow - and I can also assume they are in opposite order to
what you would prefer:
Taxes:
If you did not pay any taxes, you either didn’t make any money or you cheated: both are bad. The biggest
hindrance to paying taxes is the complexity of the tax code; the second is not planning to set aside cash for
paying the taxes. That is why you should monitor your profitability each quarter and determine how much to
set aside or pay in, depending on the rules.
Try to pay only what is required at the last possible moment to not incur a penalty, but that also means you
have to know to set taxes aside as profit is earned. Get your tax advisor to do this for you each quarter - it will
be worth it.
Debt:
Poor management of debt has killed many good businesses. It is like a drug in that it allows you to postpone the
hard decisions too long before you are forced to make them when you run out of credit. I do not recommend
funding losses with line of credit financing. It is OK to use lines of credit to fund profitable growth, but the
moment you use a line to cover a monthly loss, you have started down a slope that too often ends badly. Make
the hard decisions sooner!
The other key about debt is knowing that you can only repay debt with after-tax profits, with very few
exceptions. This is a big hit to most entrepreneurs who have a great year and think they can use 100% of all
their pre-tax income to pay off debt.
As for term debt, only use this debt when you are purchasing a necessary asset and the payments truly reflect
the cost of using that asset over its useful life.
Core Capital:
Somewhere along the way, it is important to find out the simple calculation that lets you know what a healthy
business is. Your business may be profitable, but if you are pulling all of your cash out of the business for the
wrong reasons, you will find your cash cow is out of milk when a downturn happens. The deepest downstroke
in operating cash flows for most businesses is equal to two months of operating expenses.
In turn, I recommend setting the “core capital target” at two months of operating expenses in cash, in addition
to owing nothing on the line of credit and setting aside any tax amount currently due. You may want to set the
target higher, but you would never set it lower.
Distributions:
Once you have taken care of the first three cash flow forces, you get to enjoy the fruit of your labor. You can
now use those after tax profits that the business does not need to diversify your wealth. Notice I said diversify,
not consume! Unless you have multiple sources of income beyond your needs, the moment you are looking to
the profits of your business to meet your consumption needs, you have headed down a dangerous path. This is
why it is important to pay yourself a market-based wage for the “job” you do in your business and live off your
salary. When your business has profits to distribute, you should first use it to eliminate personal debt and then
to build assets outside of the business.
In summary, once you are profitable, it is taxes, debt, core capital and then you can have a distribution. It is a
great formula for building lasting wealth from your entrepreneurial efforts, and keeping your cash cow healthy
for years to come.

Rate of return
is a profit on an investment over a period of time, expressed as a proportion of the original
investment.
[2]
The time period is typically a year, in which case the rate of return is referred to
as annual return.
Rate return ini diperhitungkan dengan irr dan npv

Forecast Revenues Using Both A Conservative Case And An Aggressive Case.
If you're like most entrepreneurs, you'll constantly fluctuate between conservative reality and an aggressive
dream state which keeps you motivated and helps you inspire others. I call this dream state "audacious
optimism."
Rather than ignoring the audacious optimism and creating forecasts based purely on conservative thinking, I
recommend that you embrace your dreams and build at least one set of projections with aggressive
assumptions. You won't become big unless you think big! By building two sets of revenue projections (one
aggressive, one conservative), you'll force yourself to make conservative assumptions and then relax some of
these assumptions for your aggressive case.
For example, your conservative revenue projections might have the following assumptions:
 low price point for base product, higher price for premium product
 three to four marketing channels managed by you and a marketing manager (Read my column on paying
employees during the startup stage to learn how you can afford a marketing manager.)
 two salespeople paid on commission
 one new product or service introduced in the first year, five more products or services introduced for each
segment of the market in years two and three
By unleashing the power of thinking big and creating a set of ambitious forecasts, you're more likely to
generate the breakthrough ideas that will grow your business.
Mungkin dengan kata lain, adanya invisible hand dan ceteris paribu kali ya?
Kalian masih ingat kah?
utility theory
A theory used in economics that holds the belief that an item or service's utility is a measure of
the satisfaction that the consumer will derive from the consumption of that particular good or
service.

The expected utility theory deals with the analysis of choices among risky projects with
(possibly multidimensional) outcomes.
The first important use of the expected utility theory was that who used the assumption of
expected utility maximization in their formulation of study of strategic decision making:
 Objectives must first be established
 Objectives must be classified and placed in order of importance
 Alternative actions must be developed
 The alternative must be evaluated against all the objectives
 The alternative that is able to achieve all the objectives is the tentative decision
 The tentative decision is evaluated for more possible consequences
 The decisive actions are taken, and additional actions are taken to prevent any adverse
consequences from becoming problems and starting both systems (problem analysis and
decision-making) all over again
 There are steps that are generally followed that result in a decision model that can be used to
determine an optimal production plan.
[11]

 In a situation featuring conflict, role-playing may be helpful for predicting decisions to be made
by involved parties.
[12]


Human performance with regard to decisions has been the subject of active research from several
perspectives:
 Psychological: examining individual decisions in the context of a set of needs, preferences and
values the individual has or seeks.
 Cognitive: the decision-making process regarded as a continuous process integrated in the
interaction with the environment.
 Normative: the analysis of individual decisions concerned with the logic of decision-making and
rationality and the invariant choice it leads to

Disini gw masih bingung ini dilihat dari sudut pandang orang yang akan memilih resiko atau
resiko yang di perhitungkan perusahaan?
Gw mau istrahat dulu deh sampai nanti sore agi ya kawan2,,,,,