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To: Interested Parties


From: Paul Harstad
Date: September 28, 2014
Re: Latest Poll Shows a Tie for Iowa Senate Seat Between Braley & Ernst

Our latest telephone survey in Iowa from September 21 to 25 among 809 likely voters
shows the U.S. Senate race is tied at 42% for Bruce Braley and 42% for Joni Ernst
confirming a clear trend in the direction of Braley since Labor Day.
The survey is based upon a sample of active voters from the Iowa voter file, screening
down to likely voters. This sampling approach is much more reliable than a random-
digit-dialing survey that is supposed to reach all adults and then screen down to likely
voters. This voter-list survey methodology is all the more preferable with a lower
turnout midterm election as opposed to a presidential election. Our survey was
conducted by live interviewers reaching likely voters on both landlines and cell
phones.
Conducted for the DSCC, the Harstad survey is based upon a sample that is 4% more
registered Republicans than registered Democrats. And it also shows that Braley
leads among the pivotal registered Independents by a margin of 40% to 36%.
Further affirmation is provided in terms of the candidates personal feelings showing
that Braley (36% favorable versus 36% unfavorable) is actually a shade more popular
than Ernst (38% favorable, 42% unfavorable). His very unfavorable score is 22%
versus 28% for her.

The survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. An Iowa native, Paul
Harstad has served as Senator Tom Harkins pollster from 1983 to the present and for
both of Governor Tom Vilsacks successful come-from-behind races. Harstad has
also polled for Barack Obama since 2002 including for his upset win in the 2008
Iowa Presidential Caucus and both of his general election wins in 2008 and 2012. No
pollster in America has conducted statewide surveys in Iowa with more frequency,
more accuracy or more success than Harstad.