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contact@claritycampaigns.

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September 30, 2014 Page 1
!": kendra Porn
#$"%: 1om 8onler
&'(): SepLember 30, 2014
*+,-).(: SepLember 1racklng Survey 8esulLs

ClarlLy Campalgn Labs recenLly conducLed a survey of llkely 2014 general elecLlon voLers ln Cklahoma.
We surveyed 841 voLers and maLched Lhe sample Lo Lhe voLer flle, welghLlng lL Lo reflecL a mldLerm
elecLoraLe. 1he margln of error ls +/-3.74°.

Cur survey shows LhaL Covernor lallln's decllne ln popularlLy and supporL LhaL began laLe ln 2013 has
conLlnued lnLo SepLember. 1he Covernor's [ob approval ls now neL negaLlve, wlLh 46° of llkely voLers
expresslng dlsapproval of Lhe [ob Mary lallln ls dolng as governor, compared Lo 42° approvlng. 1he
Covernor en[oys hlgh name lu, as one would expecL wlLh an lncumbenL, wlLh only 3° of voLers
unfamlllar wlLh lallln.

!oe uorman remalns slgnlflcanLly less well-known Lhan Lhe Covernor, wlLh 37° of llkely voLers
unfamlllar wlLh hlm. Among Lhose voLers who reglsLered an oplnlon, 8epresenLaLlve uorman en[oys
sLrong raLlngs - 39° favorable, 23° unfavorable.

ln Lhe head Lo head conLesL, our survey flnds 8epresenLaLlve uorman Lralllng Covernor lallln by 2° -
43° Lo 43° among llkely voLers, and 47° Lo 43° when lncludlng leaners. 1hls resulL conflrms LhaL Lhe
Covernor's decllne ln supporL has conLlnued unabaLed over Lhe pasL several monLhs, and shows no slgn
of changlng course.

lL's worLh noLlng LhaL Lhls 2° margln ls well wlLhln Lhe margln of error of Lhe survey, maklng Lhls race a
sLaLlsLlcal dead heaL. WhaL's more, hlsLory would suggesL Lhe Covernor's re-elecLlon prospecLs are dlm -
ln Lhe 2010 elecLlon only one lncumbenL sLandlng for reelecLlon wlLh a Lwo-way polllng average below
30° wenL on Lo wln.

Cur survey demonsLraLes LhaL Lhe coallLlon 8epresenLaLlve uorman ls assembllng ls qulLe ldeologlcally
dlverse. Pls coallLlon ls bullL on a sLrong lead wlLh lndependenLs, wlnnlng 18° crossover 8epubllcan
voLers, and a consolldaLed uemocraLlc base.

Also encouraglng ls Lhe composlLlon of Lhe 8° of llkely voLers who are undeclded. 1hese swlng voLers
dlsapprove of Mary lallln's performance as Covernor by a 22° neL margln. As 8epresenLaLlve uorman's
name lu lncreases, lL ls llkely LhaL hls voLe share wlll lncrease.

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