You are on page 1of 3158

Modelo del repartidor de peridicos

Estado de la naturaleza
0
0
-40
-80
-120

1
-50
35
-5
-45

2
-100
-15
70
30

3
-150
-65
20
105

Probabilidad de Estado 0.1

0.3

0.4

0.2

Costo Faltante
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150

-85
0
-8.5
-17
-25.5
-34
-42.5
-51
-59.5
-68
-76.5
-85
-93.5
-102
-110.5
-119
-127.5
-136
-144.5
-153
-161.5
-170
-178.5
-187
-195.5
-204
-212.5
-221
-229.5
-238
-246.5
-255

Rendimiento esperado
-12.5
22.5
27.5
32.5
50
23.5
31.5
19.5
30.5
15.5
29.5
0
11.5
28.5
7.5
27.5
3.5
26.5
-50
-0.5
25.5
-4.5
24.5
-8.5
23.5
-100
-12.5
22.5
-16.5
21.5
-20.5
20.5
-24.5
19.5
-150
-28.5
18.5
-32.5
17.5
-36.5
16.5
-200
-40.5
15.5
-44.5
14.5
-48.5
13.5
-250
-52.5
12.5
-56.5
11.5
-60.5
10.5
-300
-64.5
9.5
-68.5
8.5
-72.5
7.5
-76.5
6.5
-80.5
5.5
-84.5
4.5
-88.5
3.5
-92.5
2.5

Rendimiento
Esperado
-85
-12.5
22.5
7.5

7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50

Decisin
0
1
2
3

Ordenar 0

75
40
50

45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150

Datos
Precio venta
Precio compra
Demanda no satisfecha

Ordenar 1

Ordenar 2

Ordenar 3

Decisin
0
1
2
3

Estado de la naturaleza
0
1
0
-50
-40
35
-80
-5
-120
-45

Probabilidad de Estado
0.1
Mejor opcin por estado 0
Rendimiento Esperado 59.5
VEIP
37.0

0.3
35

2
-100
-15
70
30

3
-150
-65
20
105

0.4

0.2
70

105

Criterios
Maximin
-65
-150
-65
-80
-120

Maximax
105
0
35
70
105

Maxima Posibilidad
Valor Esperado
70
22.5
-100
-85
-15
-12.5
70
22.5
30
7.5

CC
CC
Mercado
Mercado

CC
CC
Mercado
Mercado

CC
CC
Mercado
Mercado

Costos mensuales
Alquiler
S/.
420.00
S/.
500.00
S/.
400.00
S/.
450.00

Servicios
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.

Ingresos

Das por mes

Callao
Limasur
Paraso
Cenizas Rojas

Demanda Alta
S/.
400.00
S/.
400.00
S/.
400.00
S/.
400.00

Demanda Media
S/.
270.00
S/.
270.00
S/.
200.00
S/.
230.00

Demanda Baja
S/.
130.00
S/.
150.00
S/.
100.00
S/.
100.00

Callao
Limasur
Paraso
Cenizas Rojas

Demanda Alta
S/.
12,000.00
S/.
12,000.00
S/.
12,000.00
S/.
12,000.00

Demanda Media
S/.
8,100.00
S/.
8,100.00
S/.
6,000.00
S/.
6,900.00

Demanda Baja
S/.
3,900.00
S/.
4,500.00
S/.
3,000.00
S/.
3,000.00

Callao
Limasur
Paraso
Cenizas Rojas

420.00
500.00
250.00
250.00

Personal
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.

400.00
400.00
400.00
400.00
30

Total
S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.

Utilidades
1,240.00
1,400.00
1,050.00
1,100.00

CC Callao
CC Limasur
Mercado Paraso
Mercado Cenizas Rojas

Demanda Alta
S/.
10,760.00
S/.
10,600.00
S/.
10,950.00
S/.
10,900.00

Demanda Media
S/.
6,860.00
S/.
6,700.00
S/.
4,950.00
S/.
5,800.00

Probabilidad (Laplace)

0.33

0.33

Demanda Baja
S/.
2,660.00
S/.
3,100.00
S/.
1,950.00
S/.
1,900.00
0.33

Resultado
Decisin

Maximax
S/.
10,760.00
S/.
10,600.00
S/.
10,950.00
S/.
10,900.00
S/.
10,950.00
Mercado Paraso

Maximin
S/. 2,660.00
S/. 3,100.00
S/. 1,950.00
S/. 1,900.00
S/. 3,100.00
CC Limasur

Laplace
S/. 6,760.00
S/. 6,800.00
S/. 5,950.00
S/. 6,200.00
S/. 6,800.00
CC Limasur

Decisin
Demanda
Alta

Producir
1000
750
300

Regular
100%
100%
100%

Precio Venta
Costo Produccin

S/.
S/.

190.00
38.60

Otros Costos
Distribucin
Publicidad
Costos fijos

% de Ingresos
0.1
0.15
10,000.00

50%
60%
100%

Ingresos
Producir
1000
750
300

Alta
S/. 190,000.00
S/. 142,500.00
S/. 57,000.00

Costos
Producir
1000
750
300

Alta
S/. 96,100.00
S/. 74,575.00
S/. 35,830.00

Regular
S/. 95,000.00
S/. 85,500.00
S/. 57,000.00

Regular
S/. 53,050.00
S/. 48,745.00
S/. 35,830.00

Utilidad
Producir
1000
750
300
Prob (Laplace)

Alta
Regular
S/. 93,900.00 S/. 41,950.00
S/. 67,925.00 S/. 36,755.00
S/. 21,170.00 S/. 21,170.00
0.5
0.5
Resultado
Decisin

Maximax
S/. 93,900.00
S/. 67,925.00
S/. 21,170.00
S/. 93,900.00
1000

Maximin
S/. 41,950.00
S/. 36,755.00
S/. 21,170.00
S/. 41,950.00
1000

Laplace
S/. 67,925.00
S/. 52,340.00
S/. 21,170.00
S/. 67,925.00
1000

Decisin
Demanda
Flota
Alta
Mediana
Baja
10
100%
100%
100%
15
100%
50%
100%
20
100%
50%
100%
Precio Descuento
S/. 180.00 S/. 125.00

Flota
10
15
20
Prob (Laplace)

Capacidad
(Pasajeros)
28
Ingreso por asiento
S/. 250.00

Alta
Mediana
S/. 70,000.00 S/. 70,000.00 S/.
S/. 105,000.00 S/. 90,300.00 S/.
S/. 140,000.00 S/. 120,400.00 S/.
0.33

0.33

Baja
70,000.00
52,500.00
10,000.00
0.33

Resultado
Decisin

Maximax
Maximin
S/. 70,000.00 S/. 70,000.00
S/. 105,000.00 S/. 52,500.00
S/. 140,000.00 S/. 10,000.00
S/. 140,000.00 S/. 70,000.00
20
10

S/.
S/.
S/.
S/.

Laplace
70,000.00
82,600.00
90,133.33
90,133.33
20

Producir en su fbrica
Comprar en mercado nacional
Importar de China
Probabilidades
Resultados mximos
Valor esperado mximo
VEIP

alta
500
570
600
20%
alta
600
476.25
33.75

media
475
460
500
55%
media
500

baja
325
300
-100
25%
baja
325

Valor Esperado

Resultado
Decisin

442.50
442.00
370.00
442.50
Producir en su fbrica

For Evaluation Only


0.75
Alta
Planta Tamao Completo

6000000

-5000000

0.25
Baja

125000

2500000

1000000

-2500000

Tradicional
-4200000

2
187500

0.75
Alta

Tecnologa
3

500000

212500

-5500000

No ampliar
0

Planta Pequea
-1000000

187500

Tradicional
-4200000

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only\\vboxsrv\conversion_tmp\scratch_3\www.TreePlan.com

For Evaluation Only

0.25
Baja

Tecnologa
3

400000

112500

-5500000

No ampliar
0

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only\\vboxsrv\conversion_tmp\scratch_3\www.TreePlan.com

For Evaluation Only

1000000

-2500000

0.75
Alta
-2000000
2700000
-2525000

-2000000

0.25
Baja
-4100000
600000

-4100000

0.75
Alta
-3300000
2700000
-3825000

-3300000

0.25
Baja
-5400000
600000

-5400000

0.75
Alta
250000
750000
212500

250000

0.25
Baja
100000
600000

100000

0.75
Alta
-2100000
2700000
-2625000

-2100000

0.25
Baja

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only\\vboxsrv\conversion_tmp\scratch_3\www.TreePlan.com

For Evaluation Only


-4200000
600000

-4200000

0.75
Alta
-3400000
2700000
-3925000

-3400000

0.25
Baja
-5500000
600000

-5500000

0.75
Alta
150000
750000
112500

150000

0.25
Baja
0
600000

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Only\\vboxsrv\conversion_tmp\scratch_3\www.TreePlan.com

Concursar
No concursar
Prob

Ganar
220000
0
0.5

No Ganar V. Esperado
-54000
83000
0
0
0.5
Maximo VE
83000

Max Pagos
VECP
VEIP

220000
110,000
27,000

Exitoso
No Exitoso

Ganar
0.9
0.1

No Ganar
0.3
0.7

Exitoso
No Exitoso

Ganar
0.45
0.05

No Ganar
0.15
0.35

Exitoso
No Exitoso

Ganar
0.75
0.125

No Ganar
0.25
0.875

VEIM
Eficiencia

7900
29%

Prob marg
0.6
0.4
1
83000

0.5
Ganar
Concursar
-30000

250000
83000

220000

0.5
No Ganar

No hacer estudio
1
0

-24000

-54000

83000
No concursar
0

Concursar
-30000

143500

0.6
Exitoso
1
0

143500
No concursar
0

-8000

Hacer estudio
-8000

82900
Concursar
-30000

-27750

0.4
No Exitoso
2
0

-8000
No concursar
0

-8000

220000

-54000

0.75
Ganar
212000
250000

212000

0.25
No Ganar
-62000
-24000

-62000

-8000

0.125
Ganar
212000
250000

212000

0.875
No Ganar
-62000
-24000

-62000

-8000

ID

Name

Value

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
13
14
15
16

0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Prob

Pred

Kind

NS

S1

S2

S3

0
0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
5
5
1
1
0
0
6
6
7
7
9
9
8
8
13
13

D
E
T
T
T
D
E
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T

2
2
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0

5
3
0
0
0
1
7
9
13
11
0
0
0
15
0
0
0

6
4
0
0
0
2
8
10
14
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S4

S5

Row

Col

Mark

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

19
4
12
2
7
8
30
23
38
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37

1
9
9
13
13
5
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17

TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE

Dda Alta
Dda Regular Dda Baja
VE
Lanzar inmediatamente 200000
50000
-100000
No Lanzar
0
0
0
Prob. A priori
0.2
0.6
0.2

VCIP
VEIP

200000
70000
20,000
Dda Alta

Conveniente
No conveniente

0.3
0.7
Dda Alta

Conveniente
No conveniente

50000

Dda Regular Dda Baja


0.6
0.2
0.4
0.8

A Posteriori

Conveniente
No conveniente
VCIF
VEIF

Dda Regular Dda Baja


0.06
0.36
0.04
0.14
0.24
0.16

Dda Alta
0.13
0.26
50000
0

50000
0

Dda Regular Dda Baja


0.78
0.09
0.44
0.30

0.46
0.54

No Lanzar
0

0
0.2
Dda Alta
200000

Lanzar inmediatamente

0.6
Dda Regular

50000

50000

200000

50000

0.2
Dda Baja
-100000

-100000

2
50000

Lanzar
0
0.46
Conveniente
1
0

46521.7391

No Lanzar
0

Realizar estudio
-10000

40000

Lanzar
0
0.54
No Conveniente
1
0

34444.4444

No Lanzar
0

200000

50000

-100000

0.13043478
Dda Alta
190000
200000

190000

0.7826087
Dda Regular
40000
46521.7391

50000

40000

0.08695652
Dda Baja
-110000
-100000

-110000

-10000
-10000
0.25925926
Dda Alta
190000
200000
0.44444444

190000

Dda Regular
40000
34444.4444

50000

40000

0.2962963
Dda Baja
-110000
-100000

-110000

-10000
-10000

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
14
15
16
17
18

ID

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0
0
2
2
2
0
6
6
7
7
9
9
9
8
8
14
14
14

Kind
D
T
E
T
T
T
E
D
D
E
T
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
T

NS
3
0
3
0
0
0
2
2
2
3
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0

S1

S2
1
0
3
0
0
0
7
9
14
11
0
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
0

S3
2
0
4
0
0
0
8
10
15
12
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
0
0

S4
6
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
18
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
22
2
12
7
12
17
42
32
52
27
37
22
27
32
47
57
42
47
52

1
5
5
9
9
9
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
17
13
13
17
17
17

Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE

VEIM
VEIP

Cultivar
No cultivar
Prob a priori
Valor Esperado
Pagos Mximos
VCIP
VEIP

2.403 S/. 2,402.56

Sin plaga
Plagas
310
210
0.6
246
310
270
24

Valor Esperado
150
210
0.4

246
210

210

Reali
0

248.40256

No re
0

Cultivar
0

246

0.3
Templado
1
0

246
No cultivar
210

210

Cultivar
0

203.328

0.36
Subtropical

Realizar estudio

2
0

248.40256

210
No cultivar
210

210

Cultivar
0

291.184

0.34
Fro
1

1
0

291.184
No cultivar
210
0.6

210

Sin plaga
Cultivar
0

310
246

310

0.4
Plagas

No realizar estudio
1
0

150

246
No cultivar
210

210

150

0.6
Sin plaga
310
310

310

0.4
Plagas
150
150

150

210

0.3333
Sin plaga
310
310

310

0.6667
Plagas
150
150

150

210

0.8824
Sin plaga
310
310

310

0.1176
Plagas
150
150

150

210

310

150

210

ID
0
0
0
2
0
0
18
19
20
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Name
TreePlan

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0
0
1
1
1
3
3
6
6
4
4
10
10
5
5
14
14
2
2
18
18

Kind
D
E
D
D
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T

NS

S1
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0

1
3
18
6
10
14
8
0
0
0
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
20
0
0
0

S2

S3
2
4
19
7
11
15
9
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
17
0
0
0
21
0
0
0

S4
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
38
23
53
8
23
38
4
12
2
7
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37
49
57
47
52

1
5
5
9
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
9
9
13
13

Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE

Producir
No Producir
Prob
Valor Esperado
Pagos mximos
VECP
VEIP
VEIM
Eficiencia

Sin problemas Con fallas


1400
-1400
0
0
0.6
0.4
280
1400
840
560
175
31.25%

280
0

3
355

-100

0.6
Sin problemas
Producir
-800

2200
280

1400

0.4
Con fallas
-600

-1400

No Producir
0

Producir
-800

600

0.65
Alentador
1
0

600
No producir
0

-100

Realizar estudio
-100

355
Producir
-800

-716

0.35
Desalentador
2
0

-100
No producir
0

-100

1400

-1400

0.75
Sin problemas
1300
2200

1300

0.25
Con fallas
-1500
-600

-1500

-100

0.28
Sin problemas
1300
2200

1300

0.72
Con fallas
-1500
-600

-1500

-100

0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
12
13
14
15

ID

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0
0
1
1
0
5
5
6
6
8
8
7
7
12
12

Kind
D
E
T
T
T
E
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T

NS
3
2
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0

S1

S2
1
3
0
0
0
6
8
12
10
0
0
0
14
0
0
0

S3
2
4
0
0
0
7
9
13
11
0
0
0
15
0
0
0

S4
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Col
17
4
12
2
7
30
23
38
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37

1
5
5
9
9
5
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17

Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE

Autopista
Avenida

Abierta
25
30

Pagos mnimos
VCIP
Prob a priori
VEIP

Embotellada
45
30
V. Esperado

25
25.75
0.85
2.25

V Esperado
28
30
28
30

0.15

Estado del tiempo

Despejado
Neblina
Lluvioso

Abierta
0.8
0.2
0

Embotellada
0.1
0.3
0.6

Abierta
0.68
0.17
0

Embotellada
0.015
0.045
0.09

Prob conjunta

Despejado
Neblina
Lluvioso

Prob Total
0.695
0.215
0.090

3
26.65

Despejado
Neblina
Lluvioso
VEIM
Eficiencia

Abierta
0.9784
0.7907
0.0000

Embotellada
0.0216
0.2093
1.0000

1.35
60%

Estado del Tiempo


0

0.85
Abierta
Autopista
0

25
28

25

0.15
Embotellada
45

45

Avenida
30

30

Autopista
0

25.4316547

0.695
Despejado
1
0

25.4316547
Avenida
30

30

Autopista
0

29.1860465

0.215
Neblina

Estado del Tiempo

1
0

26.65

29.1860465
Avenida
30

30

Autopista
0

45

0.090
Lluvioso
2
0

30
Avenida
30

30

25

45

30

0.9784
Abierta
25
25

25

0.0216
Embotellada
45
45

45

30

0.7907
Abierta
25
25

25

0.2093
Embotellada
45
45

45

30

0.0000

Abierta
25
25

25

1.0000
Embotellada
45
45

45

30

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
17
18
19
20

ID
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
17
18
19
20

Name
0 TreePlan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Value

Prob
0

Pred
0
0
0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
2
0
2
0
0
5
5
5
6
6
9
9
7
7
13
13
8
8
17
17

Kind
D
T
E
T
T
E
D
D
D
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T
E
T
T
T

NS

S1
3
0
2
0
0
3
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
0

S2
2
0
1
0
0
6
9
13
17
11
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
19
0
0
0

S3
4
0
3
0
0
7
10
14
18
12
0
0
0
16
0
0
0
20
0
0
0

S4
5
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

S5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Row
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

21
2
4
7
12
38
23
38
53
19
27
17
22
34
42
32
37
49
57
47
52

Col
1
9
5
9
5
5
9
9
9
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17
13
13
17
17

Mark
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE
TRUE