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putinis

sagareo politika
ioseb
toroSeliZe
Tbilisi
2008
bTkk-s saerTaSoriso politikis
kvlevebis seria
wigni gamoica evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis dafinansebiT
(granti 08-0004) SvedeTis saerTaSoriso ganviTarebis
saagentos saxsrebis meSveobiT. wignSi gamoTqmuli
mosazrebebi SeiZleba ar emTxveodes SvedeTis saerTaSoriso
ganviTarebis saagentosa da evraziis TanamSromlobis fondis
Sexedulebebs.
2008 bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi
ISBN 978-9941-0-0625-8 (yvela wignis)
ISBN 978-9941-0-0687-6 (meoTxe wignis)
ISSN 1512-4118
saerTaSoriso politikis
kvlevebis proeqtis
direqtori:
proeqtis koordinatori:
recenzenti:
kompiuteruli dizaini:
bTkk-s saerTaSoriso
politikis kvlevebis seriis
saredaqcio sabWo:
mamuka komaxia
revaz baxtaZe
bakur kvaSilava
vaxtang elerdaSvili
mamuka komaxia,
revaz baxtaZe,
Tornike TurmaniZe,
gela kvaSilava
winasityvaoba
`bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi~ `saerTaSoriso poli-
tikis kvlevebis~ proeqtis farglebSi agrZelebs bTkk-s saerTa-
Soriso politikis kvlevebis seriis gamoqveynebas, romelic ax-
algazrda qarTvel mecnierTa naSromebs aerTianebs da
saqarTveloSi politikuri mecnierebebis ganviTarebisaTvis xe-
lis Sewyobas isaxavs miznad. seriis mexuTe wignia `putinis sagar-
eo politika~ _ avtori ioseb toroSeliZe.
vimedovnebT, rom bTkk-s saerTaSoriso politikis kvleveb-
is seriis mexuTe wigni saintereso informacias miawvdis mkiTxv-
els ruseTis federaciis prezidentis vladimer putinis sagareo
politikis ZiriTad etapebze da masSi warmodgenili analizi ga-
mosadegi iqneba, rogorc mecnierebisa da studentebisaTvis, ise
politikuri gadawyvetilebis mimRebi pirebisaTvis saqarTvelo-
Si.
`bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi~ gansakuTrebul madlo-
bas uxdis `evraziis TanamSromlobis fondsa~ da SvedeTis saer-
TaSoriso ganviTarebis saagentos `saerTaSoriso politikis kv-
levebis~ proeqtis ganxorcielebis mxardaWerisaTvis.
bTkk - politikis kvlevis jgufi
2008 weli
winaTqma
Tqvens win mdebare wignis dawera SesaZlebeli gaxda `bTkk -
politikis kvlevis jgufis~ iniciativiTa da ZalisxmeviT, ris
gamoc msurs uRrmesi madliereba gamovxato aRniSnuli orga-
nizaciis, iseve, rogorc proeqtis finansuri mxardamWerebis -
`evraziis TanamSromlobis fondisa~ da SvedeTis saerTaSoriso
ganviTarebis saagentos mimarT.
ruseTis saSinao da sagareo politikis Seswavlas Cemi stu-
dentobisa da saqmianobis ukanaskneli ramdenime weli davuTme,
ramac Cemi azriT sakmarisi safuZveli Semiqmna imisTvis, raTa
gavkadnierebuliyavi da aRniSnul Temaze wigni damewera. aqve
msurs aRvniSno, rom gamomdinare Tqvens win mdebare naSromis
zomidan, mas ar gaaCnia pretenzia srulad mimoixilos ruseTis
meore prezidentis, vladimir putinis mier ukanaskneli rva wlis
ganmavlobaSi gatarebuli sagareo politika. Tumca, igi maqsi-
malurad ecdeba warmoaCinos yvela ZiriTadi momenti putinis
sagareopolitikur saqmianobaSi.
garda amisa, didi madloba minda gadavuxado yvela im ad-
amians, gansakuTrebiT Cems TanamSromlebs, vinc wvlili Seitana
am wignis momzadebaSi da aRvniSno is fasdaudebeli daxmareba,
romelic Cemma megobrebma da ojaxis wevrebma gamiwies samecnie-
ro muSaobisTvis saukeTeso pirobebis SeqmniT.
rasakvirvelia, wignSi gamoTqmul yvela mosazrebasa da Sec-
domaze mxolod avtori aris pasuxismgebeli.
ioseb toroSeliZe
2008 weli
s a r C e v i
Sesavali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Tavi pirveli.
Teoriebi da xedvebi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .15
Tavi meore.
putinis sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi.......21
Tavi mesame.
ruseTis sagareo politika putinamde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
Tavi meoTxe.
putinis sagareo politikis pirveli faza - `koncentrireba~,
qveynis SigniT Zalauflebis konsolidacia da ekonomikuri
reabilitacia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40
Tavi mexuTe.
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza - `liberaluri impe-
ria~ da `energetikuli xelketi~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49
Tavi meeqvse.
putinis sagareo politikis mesame faza - miunxenis konfer-
encia da `suverenuli demokratia~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
Tavi meSvide.
ruseTi putinis Semdeg. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
bibliografia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84
Sesavali
rva wlis win, 2000 wlis ianvarSi, davosis ekonomikur forumze,
pirvelad gaisma kiTxva `vin aris batoni putini?~. miuxedavad im-
isa, rom kiTxvam dabneuloba gamoiwvia ruseTis delegaciaSi, Zne-
lia uarvyoT misi samarTlianoba. arc dasavleTisTvis, arc aR-
mosavleTisTvis da arc Tavad ruseTisTvis bolomde ar iyo naTe-
li Tu vis gadaabara boris elcinma samarTavad uzarmazari qvey-
ana uamravi problemiTa da birTvuli iaraRiT. gaugebari iyo
ruseTis axali prezidentis Sexedulebebi, misi msoflmxedvelo-
ba da pozicia sarTaSoriso politikis ZiriTad sakiTxebze.
sakuTari prezidentobis pirveli wlebi putinma miuZRvna im
drois umTavres amocanas - qveynis socialur-ekonomikuri kriz-
isidan gamoyvanas da qveynis SigniT erTiani samarTlebrivi sivr-
cis Seqmnas. saukunis dasawyisSi ruseTSi mTavar terminad iqca
`Zalauflebis vertikali~, romelsac moskovi qmnida xelisufleb-
is sxvadasxva doneebze elementaruli disciplinis dasamyare-
blad. aRniSnul periodze saubrisas Tavad vladimir putini acx-
adebs, rom ruseTi idga daSlis piras, regionuli kanonebi ewi-
naaRmdegebodnen konstitucias da federalur kanonebs, romel-
Ta aRsrulebac, Tavis mxriv, regionebSi SeuZlebeli iyo.
Semdeg dadga federaciis sabWos reformirebis droc. guber-
natorebs, romlebic maSin Sediodnen parlamentis zeda palata-
Si, SesTavazes miexedaT regionebis ganviTarebisTvis, xolo par-
lamentSi sakuTari warmomadgenlebi gaegzavnaT, ramac regionu-
li liderebis ara marto politikuri aqtivoba, aramed maTi poli-
tikuri wonac Seamcira.
2003 wlis saxelmwifo saTaTbiros arCevnebis Semdeg, gamsvle-
li barieris 5%-dan 7%-mde gazrdam da arCevnebis Sereuli siste-
mis proporciuliT Secvlam gamoiwvia 1990-iani wlebis mTavari
liberaluri partiebis - `iablokosa~ da `memarjvene ZalTa kav-
Siris~ faqtobrivi marginalizacia. Seicvala agreTve kanoni par-
8
tiebis Sesaxeb
1
, ramac 2003 welTan SedarebiT 2007 wlis saparla-
mento arCevnebisTvis arCevnebSi monawile partiaTa raodenoba
gaanaxevra - 23-dan mxolod 11-ma moaxerxa monawileobis miReba.
parlamentis arCevis sistemis Secvlis Semdeg Seicvala guberna-
torTa arCevis sistemac. faqtobrivad gauqmda regionuli xe-
lmZRvanelebis pirdapiri arCeva, ris Sedegadac maT kandida-
turebs regionuli parlamentebi prezidentis wardginebiT amt-
kiceben
2
.
qveynis politikur mowyobaSi gatarebuli yvela es cvlileba
mimdinareobda sainformacio sivrcisa da media-biznesis `stru-
qturirebis~ fonze. 2000 wlis agvistoSi atomuri wyalqveSa navis,
`kursk~-is CaZirvasa da aRniSnul tragediaze xelisuflebis reaq-
cias (ufro swored reaqciis arqonas), rusuli masmediis mxridan
mkveTrad negatiuri gamoxmaureba mohyva. kremlma aRniSnuli me-
dia-kampaniis ukan elcinis droindeli oligarqebi dainaxa da
sazogadoebriv azrze maTi gavlenis Semcirebaze daiwyo zrunva.
Sedegad biznesmen boris berezovskis, romelsac 1990-iani wlebis
bolos sainformacio saSualebebi `kremlis rux kardinals~
uwodebdnen, 2001 wels yvelaze msxvili rusuli telearxis -
`ort~-s aqciebis gayidva da did britaneTSi politikuri TavS-
esafris moTxovna mouwia. biznesmen vladimir gusinskis mier kon-
trolirebadi damoukidebeli telekompania `ntv~ `valebis gada-
uxelobis~ sababiT `gazpromis~ mflobelobaSi gadavida, xolo
Tavad gusinski iZulebuli gaxda israelSi gadaxvewiliyo. umsx-
vilesi gazeTebisa da telekompaniebis aqciebi Seisyides kremlis
mier kontrolirebadma da mis mimarT loialurad ganwyobilma
biznes-struqturebma.
rac Seexeba cvlilebebs ruseTis sagareo politikaSi, say-
ovelTaod miRebulia azri, rom putinis prezidentobis rva wlis
ganmavlobaSi ruseTma moaxerxa ara marto sakuTari poziciebis
SenarCuneba msoflio arenaze, aramed sakuTari interesebis or-
bitaze daabruna sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg `miviwyebuli~
aziis, afrikisa da axlo aRmosavleTis qveynebi. putinis
1
axali kanoniT registraciisTvis partiis wevrTa raodenoba unda yofil-
iyo aranakleb 50000 da isini warmodgenilni unda yofiliyvnen fedraciis sub-
ieqtTa naxevarze metSi.
2
Dale R. Herspring, Putins Russia, Past Imperfect, Future Uncertain (Rowman & Litterfield
Publishers Inc., 2007), 53-99.
Sesavali
9
mmarTvelobis periodSi ruseTis xelisuflebam aqtiurad daiwyo
ekonomikuri faqtoris gamoyeneba sakuTari sagareo politikuri
interesebis gasatareblad, maT Soris ganviTarebad qveynebTan
savaWro brunvis gazrdis xarjze da sxva qveynebis bazrebze gams-
vleli rusuli kompaniebis aqtiuri mxardaWeris wyalobiT. `gaz-
promis~, `rosneftis~, `lukoilis~, `rusalis~, `ruseTis rkinig-
zis~ mier germaniaSi, italiaSi, nigeriaSi, yazaxeTSi, arabul Tu
aziur qveynebSi ganxorcielebuli uamravi msxvili proeqti Sesa-
Zlebeli gaxda ara marto maTi komerciulad momgebianobis gamo,
aramed qveynis xelmZRvanelobis mxridan aqtiuri sagareo poli-
tikuri mxardaWeris xarjzec.
Tumca, ruseTis mier ukanaskneli rva wlis ganmavlobaSi saer-
TaSoriso scenaze miRweuli warmatebebi pirvel rigSi dakavSire-
bulia xelsayrel sagareo ekonomikur koniuqturasTan, kerZod
maRal fasebTan nedleulze, upirveles yovlisa navTobsa da
gazze, ramac saSualeba misca ruseTs ara marto sagrZnoblad
Seevso sakuTari biujeti, aramed gamoeyenebina `energetikis faq-
tori~ sagareo politikaSi. ruseTi araerTxel daadanaSaules
`energetikuli xelketis~ gamoyenebaSi, upirveles yovlisa, saku-
Tar uaxloes mezoblebTan - saqarTvelosa da ukrainasTan, rom-
lebmac `vardebisa~ da `narinjisferi~ revoluciebis Semdeg sak-
uTar prioritetebad evrokavSirsa da nato-Si Sesvla gamoacxa-
des.
miuxedavad yvela mcdelobisa, ruseTma ver moaxerxa multi-
polarul msofliosTan met-naklebad miaxloebuli sistemis Se-
qmna. dominantad saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi kvlav rCeba aSS,
romelTanac vladimir putinis urTierTobebi misi prezidento-
bis periodSi sul ufro uaresdeboda.
ruseTsa da aSS-s Soris urTierTobebis gaumjobeseba 2001 wels
daiwyo, rodesac 11 seqtembris teroristuli aqtebis Semdeg
putinma msoflio liderTagan pirvelma daureka jorj buSs Tan-
agrZnobis gamosaxatad da daxmarebis SesaTavazeblad. Tavdasxmebs
moyolili samxedro operacia avRaneTSi iribad mxardaWerili
iyo ruseTis mier, romelmac gauxsna sakuTari sahaero sivrce
nato-s TviTmfrinavebs da xeli ar SeuSala aSS-is samxedro baze-
bis ganTavsebas dsT-is wevr aziur qveynebSi. 11 seqtembris Semdeg
vaSingtonis esoden naCqarevi mxardaWeriT kremli miznad isaxav-
Sesavali
10
da aRniSnuli teroristuli aqtis CeCneTSi sakuTari qmedebebis
gasamarTlebel sabuTad gamoyenebas.
Tumca, 2003 wels eraySi aSS-is xelmZRvanelobiT koaliciuri
Zalis mier operaciis dawyebisa da dsT-is sivrceSi aSS-is mier
mxardaWerili `feradi revoluciebis~ Semdeg or qveyanas Soris
urTierTobebi uaresobisken wavida. erays mohyva nato-s aRmosav-
leTiT gafarToebis gegmebi, ruseTis sazRvrebTan amerikuli
raketsawinaaRmdego Tavdacvis sistemis ganTavsebis proeqti,
kosovos aRiareba da ruseTTan dapirispirebuli qveynebis -
saqarTvelosa da ukrainis mxardaWera nato-Si integraciis gza-
ze.
evropasTan urTierTobebi mTeli am periodis ganmavlobaSi
agreTve araerTmniSvnelovani iyo. jer kidev prezidentis mova-
leobis Semsruleblis, vladimir putinis erT-erTi pirveli stu-
mari britaneTis premieri toni bleri iyo, romelsac ruseTis
momavali prezidentis mxardaWera surda. or qveyanas Soris erTi
SexedviT kargad dawyebuli urTierTobebi putinis prezidento-
bis dasasrulisTvis aSkara mtruli ganwyobebiT Seicvala. ruse-
Ti iTxovda britanelebisgan berezovskisa da axmed zakaevis
3
ga-
dacemas. Sedegad orive maTganma politikuri TavSesafari miiRo
londonSi, xolo rusul-britanul urTierTobebs pirveli bzari
gauCnda. amas mohyva londonis pretenziebi moskovisadmi samo-
qalaqo sazogadoebisa da demokratiuli Rirebulebebis devnisa
da ruseTis uSiSroebis federaluri samsaxuris (ufs) yofili
TanamSromlis, aleqsandr litvinenkos mkvlelebis dafarvis
gamo.
miuxedavad kargi urTierTobebisa evrokavSiris umsxviles qvey-
nebTan - germaniasTan, safrangeTTan da italiasTan, erToblivi
energoproeqtebisa da savizo reJimis Semsubuqebisa, ruseTma mainc
ver moaxerxa putinis prezidentobis periodSi evrokavSirTan
partniorobasa da TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb axal xelSekruleba-
ze molaparakebebis dawyeba. aRniSnuli Seferxebis mizezi jer
ruseTis mier energetikuli qartiis ratificirebaze uaris Tqma
3
CeCeni separatistebis yofili `kulturis ministri~ da `sagareo saqmeTa
ministri~, romelic iZebneba rusi samarTaldamcavebis mier 2001 wlidan. 2003
wlidan sargeblobs politikuri TavSesafriT did britaneTSi.
Sesavali
11
gaxda
4
, Semdeg poloneTis winaaRmdegoba, romelic mogvianebiT
litvam Secvala.
ukanaskneli rva wlis ganmavlobaSi msoflio momswre gaxda
ruseTis aRzevebisa im qaosis Semdeg, rac putins memkvidreobiT
ergo. ram gamoiwvia misi esoden damajerebeli qceva saerTaSoriso
politikis gatarebisas? ra Tqma unda amis erT-erTi ganmsazRvre-
li mizezi msoflio bazarze navTobis maRali fasebi da qveynis
ekonomikis aRmavloba aris. amavdroulad saerTaSoriso arenaze
gaZliereba asaxavs ufro fundamentur tendenciebs ruseTis bi-
urokratiul da politikur elitaSi da msoflioSi ruseTis ro-
lis Sesaxeb rusul sazogadoebaSi arsebul konsensusis maRal
dones. eWvi ar aris, rom qveynis gaumjobesebulma ekonomikam gam-
oiwvia moskovis SesaZleblobebis zrda ganaxorcielos sakuTari
geopolitikuri interesebi. Tumca es dakvirveba jer kidev ar
xsnis ruseTis erovnuli interesebisa da miznebis warmomavlo-
bas.
sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan xelisuflebaSi putinis mosvlam-
de, ruseTis sagareo politikam TviTgamorkvevis procesSi gai-
ara gaurkvevlobebiT aRsavse gza, ramac saerTaSoriso arenaze
moskovis wonis Semcireba da misi gavlenis sferos Seviwroeba gam-
oiwvia. mxolod putinis mmarTvelobis periodSi daiwyo ruseTis
sagareo politikaSi mTavari konsesusis Camoyalibeba. aRniSnuli
konsensusis mTavar elements warmoadgens gacnobiereba imisa, rom
miuxedavad sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg momxdari istoriu-
li da xSir SemTxvevaSi mtkivneuli cvlilebebisa, ruseTs aqvs Sesa-
Zlebloba moiqces ise, rogorc es `did saxelmwifos~ Seefereba.
ruseTis sagareo politikis Semqmnelebi, nacvlad imisa, rom maTi
qveynis usafrTxoeba saerTaSoriso normebsa da institutebze
daefuZnebinaT, daubrundnen usafrTxoebis tradiciul gagebas -
usafrTxoebis, rogorc Zlierebisa da damoukideblobis funq-
cias. Sesabamisad ruseTis liderebi xedaven ZiriTadad geopoli-
tikur da samxedro safrTxeebs, romlebic sxva `didi saxelmwi-
foebisgan~ momdinareobs. aRniSnuli xedvis gamo evrokavSirisa
da aSS-sgan gansxvavebiT, nacvlad transnacionaluri urTierTo-
bisa, ruseTi upiratesobas aniWebs ormxriv saxelmwifoTaSoris
4
aRniSnuli qartia gzas uxsnis ucxour energokompaniebs rusuli mil-
sadenebisken.
Sesavali
12
urTierTobebs `did saxelmwifoebTan~. islamuri terorizmic ki,
romelsac mniSvnelovani pozicia ukavia ruseTis strategiul
azrovnebaSi, ganixileba rogorc sxva saxelmwifoebTan ruseTis
urTierTobis qvekomponenti.
amavdroulad, aRniSnuli strategiuli xedva metwilad gan-
pirobebulia ruseTis mmarTveli elitis politikuri mosazrebe-
biT. saxelmwifos, ekonomikisa da samxedro Zalis gaZliereba, war-
moadgenen winapirobebs msoflioSi ruseTis rolis aRniSnuli
xedvis gansaxorcieleblad. dReisTvis arsebuli mdgomareobiT,
SegviZlia vivaraudoT, rom ruseTis sagareo politika momaval-
Sic SeinarCunebs konservatiulobas (msoflioSi ruseTis gavle-
nis Semcirebis prevenciis gagebiT) Sida konsolidaciis proce-
sis gagrZelebis fonze
5
.
ukanaskneli rva wlis ganmavlobaSi vladimir putinis sagareo
politikis aRweras Tu gaanalizebas uamravi naSromi mieZRvna.
putinis memkvidreoba imsaxurebs seriozul Seswavlas da miuker-
Zoebel analizs, Tumca amis gakeTeba dRes rTulia. miuxedavad
formalurad prezidentis Tanamdebobis datovebisa, premier-min-
istris Tanamdebobaze igi kvlav rCeba qveyanaSi yvelaze gavle-
nian politikosad. ruseTSi xelisuflebis cvlilebis Semdeg gasu-
li mcire dro adasturebs, rom putini faqtobrivad erTpirovnu-
lad ganagrZobs qveynis sagareo da usafrTxoebis politikis mar-
Tvas, maSin rodesac axal prezidents mxolod qveynis socialuri
da ekonomikuri politikis ganviTarebaze uwevs zrunva. sakmao
dro unda gavides, vidre putinis mxardamWerebis Zlieri enTu-
ziazmi da misi mowinaaRmdegeebis Zlieri ukmayofileba Cacxreba.
mxolod amis Semdeg gaxdeba SesaZlebeli putinis epoqis miuker-
Zoeblad da zustad gaanalizeba.
vladimir putinis sagareo politikisadmi miZRvnili naSrome-
bis umetesoba mis gasaanalizeblad ZiriTadad or midgomas iy-
enebs: 1. ruseTis sagareo politikis dayofa konkretul qveynebTan
an regionebTan mimarTebaSi (ZiriTadad gamohyofen ruseTis urT-
ierTobebs aSS-sTan, evrokavSirTan, CineTTan, dsT-is sivrcesTan
5
damatebiTi informacisTvis ixileT Ingmar Oldberg, Russias Great Power
Ambitions and Policy Under Putin in Russia Re-emerging Great Power, ed.Roger E. Kanet
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), 13-31 da Nikita A. Lomagin, Forming a New Security Identity
Under Vladimir Putin in Russia Re-emerging Great Power, ed.Roger E. Kanet (Palgrave
Macmillan, 2007), 31-54.
Sesavali
13
da axlo da Soreul aRmosavleTTan); 2. ruseTis sagareo poli-
tikis dayofa sferoebis mixedviT (ZiriTadad gamohyofen poli-
tikis, ekonomikis, samxedro da kulturis sakiTxebs). Tqvens win
mdebare naSromi cdilobs am ori midgomisgan gansxvavebuli gziT
moaxdinos ruseTis meore prezidentis mier ukanaskneli rva wlis
ganmavlobaSi gatarebuli sagareo politikis analizi.
pirveli Tavi, san-franciskos saxelmwifo universitetis pro-
fesor, andrei cigankovis naSromze dayrdnobiT
6
, ganixilavs ruse-
Tis sagareo politikur azrovnebaSi droTa ganmavlobaSi Camoy-
alibebul sam gansxvavebul tradiciasa da skolas - zapadnikurs
(Westernist, igive medasavleTeebi), etatisturs (Statist, igive pro-
saxelmwifoebrivi) da civilizacionisturs (Civilizationist, igive
evrazionistuli) da maT gavlenas ruseTis sagareo politikaze
qveynis istoriis garkveul etapebze.
meore Tavi mimoixilavs qveynis Sida faqtorebs, romlebic
metwilad gansazRvraven ruseTis sagareo politikas. aRniSnul
faqtorebs warmoadgenen: qveynis Sida politikuri da
ekonomikuri mdgomareoba, ZiriTadi gavleniani dajgufebebi
kremlSi, sazogadoebaSi arsebuli xedvebi da xelisuflebasTan
daaxloebuli eqspertebi.
mesame TavSi ganxilulia ruseTis sagareo politika xelisu-
flebaSi putinis mosvlamde, misi winamorbedi prezidentebis
qmedebebi saerTaSoriso asparezze da is memkvidreoba, rac ruse-
Tis meore prezidents wilad xvda.
imisTvis, raTa mkiTxvelisTvis ufro gasagebi gamxdariyo pu-
tinis mier konkretul qveynebisa da regionebis mimarT gatarebu-
li politika sxvadasxva sferoebis mixedviT, mocemul naSromSi
misi sagareo politika dayofilia sam fazad, romlebic momdevno
sam TavSi iqneba ganxiluli:
meoTxe Tavi mimoixilavs putinis sagareo politikis pirvel
fazas, romelic moicavs periods 2000-dan 2003 wlamde da xasiaT-
deba qveynis SigniT strategiuli xedvisa da instituciuri kon-
solidaciiT da sagareo urTierTobaTa ganmsazRvreli ZiriTa-
di dokumentebis `sagareo politikis koncefciisa~ da `erovnu-
li usafrTxoebis koncefciis~ miRebiT, xolo sagareo politikaSi
6
Andrey P. Tsygankov, Understanding Change and Continuity in Russias Foreign Policy
in Russias Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity (Rowman & Littlefield
Publishers, Inc., 2006), 1-31.
Sesavali
14
`koncentrirebis~ politikis gatarebiT.
mexuTe TavSi ganxilulia putinis sagareo politikis meore
faza, 2003 wlidan 2006 wlamde da gamoyofilia aRniSnuli perio-
dis wamyvani Temebi, maT Soris energetikuli berketi ruseTis sa-
gareo politikaSi, kerZod ki `gazpromis~ roli da urTierTobe-
bis ganviTareba dsT-is wevr qveynebTan. putinis sagareopoli-
tikur saqmianobaSi aRniSnuli periodis ukeT aRsaqmelad mim-
dinare faza ganixileba im periodisTvis rusul elitaSi aqtu-
aluri `liberaluri imperiis~ Teoriis fonze.
meeqvse Tavi mimoixilavs prezidentis rangSi putinis sagareo
politikis ukanasknel, mesame fazas, romelic moicavs periods
2006-dan 2008 wlamde da xasiaTdeba dasavleTTan Ria konfront-
aciiT, ruseTis politikur cxovrebaSi `suverenuli demokrati-
is~ koncefciis SemosvliT da putinis miunxenis konferenciaze
gamosvliT.
da bolos, meSvide da daskvniTi Tavi mokled mimoixilavs uka-
naskneli rva wlis ganmavlobaSi putinis mier gatarebul sagareo
politikas da mis Sedegebs da im sagareo politikur memkvidre-
obas, romelic man mis Semdgom prezidents dimitri medvedevs
dautova.
dasasruls unda aRvniSnoT, rom gamomdinare Tqvens win mde-
bare naSromis zomidan, mas ar gaaCnia pretenzia srulad mimoixi-
los ruseTis meore prezidentis, vladimir putinis mier ukanaskne-
li rva wlis ganmavlobaSi gatarebuli sagareo politika. Tumca,
miuxedavad amisa, igi maqsimalurad ecdeba warmoaCinos yvela Zir-
iTadi momenti putinis sagareopolitikuri saqmianobis TiToeul
fazaSi da ar datovos arc erTi mniSvnelovani movlena Tu qmede-
ba, romelsac ruseTis sagareo politikaSi hqonda adgili, mkiTx-
velis yuradRebis miRma.
Sesavali
Tavi pirveli
Teoriebi da xedvebi
Tqvens win mdebare Tavi warmoadgens `analitikur iaraRs~, auci-
lebels wignis mTlianobaSi aRsaqmelad. igi mimoixilavs ruseTis
qcevas saerTaSoriso arenaze da gamohyofs mis sagareo politikaSi
arsebul dominant xedvebs. naSromi fokusirebulia ruseTis urT-
ierTobebze gare samyarosTan, gansakuTrebiT ki dasavleTTan urT-
ierTobebze, romelic ganixileba, rogorc misi qmedebebis didwilad
ganmsazRvrelad. moskovis sagareo politikur arCevans xSirad gan-
sazRvravs rusebis TvaliT danaxuli dasavleTis qmedebebi - aRiq-
vams, Tu ara igi ruseTs, rogorc msoflios Tanasworuflebian da
legitimur wevrs. Tavs safuZvlad udevs san-franciskos saxelmwifo
universitetis profesoris, andrei cigankovis naSromi `ruseTis
sagareo politika: cvlileba da uwyvetoba erovnul identuroba-
Si~
7
, romelic dawvrilebiT mimoixilavs ruseTis arsebobis sxvadasx-
va etapebze mis sagareo politikaSi arsebul gavlenian xedvebs.
ruseTis sagareo politika yalibdeboda da viTardeboda sxva-
dasxva sagareo konteqstSi da pasuxis gacema uwevda rig gamowveve-
bze misi usafrTxoebisadmi. miuxedavad mravalferovani saerTa-
Soriso konteqstisa, istoriis manZilze igi aCvenebda mdgradobis
garkveul xarisxs. monarqiisa da liberalizmis epoqebis gavlisas,
msofliosTan WidilSi ruseTis sagareo politikuri azrovneba da
qceva efuZneboda ramdenime xedvas, romlebic erTmaneTs enacvle-
bodnen. rogorc saxelmwifos, romlis sazRvrebic ZiriTadad
xmeleTze gadis da romelsac gaurkvevel, xSirad cvalebad gare-
moSi uwevda arseboba, ruseTs xSirad uwevda iseT usafrTxoebis
gamowvevebze pasuxis gacema, rogorebic aris areulobebi mezobel
teritoriebze, sagareo safrTxeebi dampyroblebisgan da sirTulee-
7
Andrey P. Tsygankov, Understanding Change and Continuity in Russias Foreign Policy
in Russias Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity (Rowman & Littlefield
Publishers, Inc., 2006), 1-31.
16
bi Sida erTianobis SenarCunebaSi. droTa ganmavlobaSi ruseTis sa-
gareo politikur azrovnebaSi Camoyalibda sami gansxvavebuli
tradicia da skola - zapadnikuri (Westernist, igive medasavleTeebi),
etatisturi (Statist, igive prosaxelmwifoebrivi) da civilizacion-
isturi (Civilizationist, igive evrazionistebi).
zapadnikuri skola
zapadnikuri midgomis momxreebi aqcents akeTebdnen dasavleT-
Tan ruseTis msgavsebaze da ganixilavdnen mas, rogorc yvelaze war-
matebul da progresul civilizacias msoflioSi. adreuli zapad-
nikebi cdilobdnen waredginaT ruseTi, rogorc evropuli monar-
qiebis ojaxis erTguli wevri. istoriulad azrovnebis aRniSnuli
skolis Camoyalibeba ukavSirdeba petre didis
8
`samxedro vestern-
izacias~, romelic erT-erTi pirveli iyo vinc aRtacebas gamoxat-
avda dasavleTis teqnologiuri upiratesobis mimarT da cdilob-
da esesxebina dasavluri teqnologiebi rusuli CamorCenilobis
aRmosafxvrelad. aleqsandre I
9
aranakleb mtkiced icavda Zveli
evropis Rirebulebebs da napoleonis damarcxebis Semdeg germaniasa
da avstriasTan erTad Seqmna `saRvTo kavSiri~, raTa Seeviwroebina
revoluciuri moZraobebi kontinentze.
liberal zapadnikebs axasiaTebdaT dasavluri Rirebulebebis -
konstituciuri Tavisuflebebisa da politikuri Tanasworobisad-
mi erTguleba. didi cvlilebebis epoqaSi aleqsandre II-is
10
xelmZR-
vanelobiT sagareo politikis orientiris germaniidan safrangeT-
sa da britaneTze gadataniT, ruseTi axali evropuli Rirebulebeb-
is - konstitucionalizmisken gadaixara. pavel miliukovs, ruseTis
sagareo saqmeTa ministrs 1917 wels da rusi liberalebis liders,
ekava yvelaze proevropuli pozicia da moiTxovda pirvel msof-
lio omSi monawileobis gagrZelebas, rasac qveynis orientaciis
dadasturebad miiCnevda.
zapadnikebi sabWoTa sistemaSi ganixilavdnen ruseTs, rogorc
evropul social-demokratiul ideebTan axlos mdgoms. mixeil
gorbaCovis
11
erT-erTi prioriteti iyo sabWoTa kavSirSi `humanuri
socializmis~ ganviTareba. sakuTar sagareo politikaSi gorbaCovi
8
ruseTis mefe 1682-1725 ww.
9
ruseTis mefe 1801-1825 ww.
10
ruseTis mefe 1855-1881 ww.
11
sabWoTa kavSiris prezidenti 1990-91 ww.
Tavi pirveli
17
ormxrivi usafrTxoebis politikas misdevda da monawileoba miiRo
iaraRis SezRudvis revoluciur xelSekrulebebSi, iseve rogorc
evropidan da mesame samyaros qveynebidan sabWoTa jarebis gayvanaSi.
liberali zapadnikebi postsabWoTa ruseTSi amtkicebdnen maTi
qveynis bunebriv siaxloves dasavleTTan, iseT saerTo Rirebulebe-
bze dayrdnobiT, rogorebic aris demokratia, adamianis uflebebi
da Tavisufali bazari. iTxovdnen yofil sabWoTa mokavSireebisgan
CamoSorebas da amtkicebdnen, rom mxolod dasavluri liberaluri
institutebis mSenebloba da e.w. `dasavluri civilizebuli erebis~
koaliciaSi gawevrianeba miscemda ruseTs saSualebas, pasuxi gaeca
safrTxeebisTvis da daeZlia ekonomikuri da politikuri CamorCe-
niloba. andrei kozirevisa
12
da boris elcinis
13
xedvebi `integra-
ciasa~ da `dasavleTTan strategiuli partniorobis~ Sesaxeb
gulisxmobda ruseTis mier liberaluri demokratiuli institute-
bis ganviTarebas da dasavleTis modelze sabazro ekonomikis
mSeneblobas.
etatisturi (prosaxelmwifoebrivi) skola
etatisturi midgomis mimdevrebi aqcents akeTebdnen saxelmwi-
fos SesaZleblobebze emarTa da daecva socialuri da politikuri
wesrigi. aRniSnuli skola udavod warmoadgens yvelaze ufro gav-
lenian skolas rusul sagareo politikur azrovnebaSi. igi Tavisu-
flebisa da demokratiis Rirebulebebze gacilebiT ufro maRla
ayenebs Zalauflebas, stabilurobasa da suverenulobas. yvelaze
mniSvnelovani etatisturi azrovnebisTvis aris ruseTisTvis sagar-
eo safrTxis cneba. monRoli dampyroblebis orsaukunovani batono-
bis Semdeg rusebis fsiqologiaSi ganviTarda erTgvari daucvelo-
bis kompleqsi da mzaoba Seswiron yvelaferi damoukideblobasa da
suverenulobas. mravalma omma evropasa da aziaSi kidev ufro gaam-
yara es mentaliteti da misca etatizmis mimdevrebs damatebiTi ar-
gumenti. swored seriozuli sagareo safrTxeebi mohyavda ioseb
stalins
14
, aRniSnuli skolis erT-erT yvelaze warmatebul mimde-
vars, 1930-iani wlebis `didi wmendisa~ da sabWoTa kavSiris swrafi
industrializaciis gasamarTleblad.
miuxedavad amisa, etatistebi ar arian erTmniSvnelovnad anti-
12
ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa minisrtri 1990-96 ww.
13
ruseTis prezidenti 1991-99 ww.
14
sabWoTa kavSiris komunisturi partiis generaluri mdivani 1922-53 ww.
Teoriebi da xedvebi
18
dasavlurebis. isini ibrZvian mxolod dasavleTis mier aRiarebi-
sTvis, aqcentebis ekonomikur da samxedro Zlierebaze gakeTebiT.
monarqiuli epoqis etatistebi upiratesobas aniWebdnen ruseTSi
Zalauflebis avtokratiul struqturas nawilobriv imis gamoc, rom
msgavsi struqtura gamoiyeneboda evropul monarqiebSic. etatiste-
bis erTi nawili sakuTar politikur da inteleqtualur warmomav-
lobas miawers aleqsandre II-is sagareo saqmeTa ministr aleqsandr
gorCakovs
15
. gorCakovi atarebda e.w. `koncentrirebis~ politikas,
rac gulisxmobda moqnili aliansebis sistemis ganviTarebas da evro-
pul saqmeebSi ruseTis SezRudul CarTulobas, raTa koncentrire-
ba momxdariyo saSinao reformebze. etatistebis meore nawili saku-
Tar Tavs petre didis saqmis gamgrZeleblad miiCnevs. gansxvavebiT
zapadnikebisgan, romlebic petres evropelobaze akeTeben aqcents,
etatistebi miuTiTeben petres samxedro siZliereze. maTi mtkice-
biT, swored usafrTxoebam da samxedro konkurentunarianobam mis-
ca mefes saSualeba, evropasTan daaxloebaze efiqra.
socialisti etatistebis mtkicebiT, politikuri wesrigisa da
sagareo kapitalisturi safrTxis Tavidan asarideblad aucilebe-
li iyo komunisturi partiis mtkice kontroli sazogadoebaze. sab-
WoTa xelmZRvanelobaSi aRniSnuli skola yovelTvis eWvis TvaliT
uyurebda partiis gareT politikuri institutebis amoqmedebas da
ewinaaRmdegeboda gorbaCovis reformebs. sagareo politikaSi zo-
gierTi etatisti, magaliTad maqsim litvinovi
16
da nikita xruSovi
17
(vidre dasavleTTan mwvave dapirispirebaSi gadavidoda) mxars uWer-
da dasavleTTan SedarebiT daaxloebas da potenciurad saxifaTo
kapitalistur samyarosTan vaWrobasa da mSvidobian Tanacxovreba-
ze gadasvlas. meore mxriv, stalinis paqti nacistur germaniasTan
da breJneviseuli
18
`ZalTa Tanafardobis~ politika asaxavs gare
samyarosgan momdinare saxifaTo gavlenis dabalansebis survils,
sagareo politikaSi ruseTis damoukideblobis SenarCunebis mizniT.
postsabWoTa epoqis liberali etatistebi aRar uWerdnen mxars
erTpartiul saxelmwifos da sabazro ekonomikisa da politikuri
demokratiis mSeneblobis mniSvnelobaze amaxvilebdnen yuradRebas.
miuxedavad amisa, isini mzad ar iyvnen SeewiraT am axali Rirebule-
15
ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa ministri 1856-82 ww.
16
sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo saqmeTa ministri 1930-39 ww.
17
sabWoTa kavSiris komunisturi partiis pirveli mdivani 1953-64 ww.
18
sabWoTa kavSiris komunisturi partiis generaluri mdivani 1964-82 ww.
Tavi pirveli
19
bebisTvis istoriulad gamocdili Zlieri saxelmwifos cneba da
amtkicebdnen, rom liberalurma Rirebulebebma unda iarsebon sax-
elmwifos gasaZliereblad da ara mis dasasusteblad. liberal eta-
tistebs sjerodaT, rom ruseTs kvlav emuqreboda sagareo safrTx-
eebi da igi unda darCeniliyo `did saxelmwifod~, aRniSnul safrTx-
eebze msoflios nebismier wertilSi pasuxis gacemis SesaZleblo-
biT. miuxedavad amisa, isini gansxvavebul strategiebs gvTavazobd-
nen `didi saxelmwifos~ statusis misaRwevad. aRsaniSnavia msgavse-
bebi evgeni primakovisa
19
da putinis sagareo politikas Soris. maTi
moRvaweobis garkveul etapze orive politikosi mimarTavda gor-
Cakoviseul politikas da orive xedavda ruseTis sidiades da
Zlierebas maTi sagareo politikis ZiriTad miznad. saSinao poli-
tikaSi orives surda meti wesrigisa da kontrolis damyareba so-
cialur da politikur cxovrebaSi. primakovi cdilobda didi bi-
znesis gakontrolebas. putinma ganagrZo aRniSnuli mimarTuleba,
magram masTan erTad axlad Camoyalibebuli politikuri institute-
bisa da ekonomikuri liberalizaciisadmi mxardaWeris deklarire-
bis fonze gaamkacra kontroli sakanonmdeblo organoze, partiul
mSeneblobaze, regionebze da masmediaze.
civilizacionisturi (evrazionistuli) skola
civilizacionistebs yovelTvis miaCndaT, rom rusuli Rirebule-
bebi gansxvavdeboda dasavlurisgan da yovelTvis cdilobdnen maT
gavrcelebas mTel msoflioSi, dasavleTis garda. maTi pasuxi ruse-
Tis usafrTxoebis dilemaze iyo ufro agresiuli, vidre SedarebiT
ufro status-kvo-ze orientirebuli etatistebisa. rogorc sagar-
eopolitikuri filosofia, civilizacionizmi momdinareobs ivane
`mrisxanes~
20
`rusuli miwebis Segrovebisa~ da `moskovi - mesame ro-
mis~ politikidan. zapadnikebisa da etatistebisgan gansxvavebiT,
civilizacionistebi upirispirdebian dasavlur RirebulebaTa
sistemas, amtkiceben ruseTis kulturul da ruseTze orientirebu-
li civilizaciis upiratesobas. magaliTad, XIX saukuneSi civili-
zacionistebi icavdnen slavuri erTianobis cnebas da maTi
panslavizmis ideologia gavlenas axdenda mefis sagareo politikur
gadawyvetilebebze. aRniSnuli xedvis zogierTi warmomadgeneli
19
ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa ministri 1996-98 ww. da premier-ministri 1998-99 ww.
20
ruseTis mefe 1547-84 ww.
Teoriebi da xedvebi
20
mtkice mxardaWeras ucxadebs marTlmadidebluri qristianobis
Rirebulebebs, maSin rodesac sxvebi xedaven ruseTs, rogorc sxva-
dasxva religiebis sinTezs.
socialisti civilizacionistebi kidev ufro Sors wavidnen
dasavleTis pirdapir gamowvevaSi. lenin-trockis msoflio rev-
oluciis doqtrina warmoadgenda civilizacionisturi azrovneb-
is sabWoTa versias. miuxedavad imisa, rom 1921 wels igi, rogorc
oficialuri filosofia, gardaicvala, mas mravali mimdevari
SemorCa oficialur Tu socialur wreebSi. magaliTad, sabWoTa kav-
Siris dasasrulisken an postsabWoTa periodSi arsebul sagareo
politikur konteqstSi, uamravi xisti politikis mimdevari poli-
tikosi Tu inteleqtuali ganixilavda ruseTis sagareo eqspansias,
rogorc ruseTis usafrTxoebis garants. e.w. evrazionistebi moiaz-
reben ruseTs, rogorc mudmivad eqspansiis mdgomareobaSi myof
saxmeleTo imperias, romelic ibrZvis ZalauflebisTvis sazRvao,
upiratesad aSS-sTan dakavSirebul `atlanticizmTan~. Sedegad, sa-
bWoTa civilizacionistebi amarTlebdnen sakuTar eqspansionistur
sagareo politikas, rogorc pasuxs dasavleTis `globalur impe-
riul eqspansiaze~. Sesabamisad eqspansionizmi ganixileboda rusi
mmarTvelebis mier, rogorc legitimuri da misaRebi saerTaSoriso
konteqstidan gamomdinare.
Tanamedrove postsabWoTa evrazionizmi ZiriTadad `saerTa-
Soriso evraziuli moZraobis~ liderTan, filosofos aleqsandr
duginTan asocirdeba. igi sakmaod didi yuradRebiT sargeblobs
rusuli mediisgan, rusi Zalovnebisgan da nacionalisturad ganwy-
obili axalgazrdebisgan, Tumca naklebi gavlena aqvs qveynis saSi-
nao Tu sagareo politikis formirebaze. aRniSnuli xedvis mimdevre-
bi warmoadgenen dasavlur civilizaciasTan dapirispirebis yvelaze
radikalurad ganwyobil momxreebs.
Tavi pirveli
Tavi meore
putinis sagareo politikis
ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
ruseTis damajerebloba sagareo politikaSi bevrs aZlevs sababs
ifiqros, rom msoflioSi wina planze gamodis axali energetikuli
imperia. qveyanas dRes marTavs postsabWoTa uSiSroebisa da samxedro
elita, romelSic gamjdaria dasavleTze sakuTari upiratesobis
gancda. aRniSnuli elitebi msoflios upiratesad ekonomikuri da
samxedro Zlierebis kuTxiT uyureben. isini iyeneben sagareo poli-
tikas qveynis SigniT mxardaWeris gaZlierebisa da ruseTis, rogorc
mtruli qveynebiT garSemortymuli imperiis imijis warmosaCenad.
miuxedavad Zalismieri sagareo politikisa, ruseTs uamravi Sida
sisuste gaaCnia. politikuri da ekonomikuri Tavisuflebebis
SezRudviT kremlma, marTalia gaaZliera sakuTari kontroli qvey-
anaze, magram daasusta rusuli samoqalaqo sazogadoeba. ruseTis
winaSe dgas demografiuli krizisisa da nacionalizmis mwvave prob-
lemebi.
aRsaniSnavia vladimir putinis mier naTqvami fraza 2002 wlis mai-
sis gamosvlaSi - `ruseTi arasodes ar yofila iseTi Zlieri,
rogoric mas surda yofiliyo da iseTi susti, rogorc es zogierTs
egona~
21
. ruseTis ekonomikurma gaZlierebam aiZula misi xelisufle-
ba da sazogadoeba erwmunaT, rom qveyana jer kidev Sedis `did sax-
elmwifoTa~ rigSi, miuxedavad sisusteebisa, rac zRudavs mas am sta-
tusis Sesabamisad moqmedebaSi. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan dRemde
ruseTis xelisuflebam ver moaxerxa eris ganviTarebis Camoyali-
bebuli da Tanamedrove ideologiis Seqmna da dakarguli imperi-
isadmi nostalgiis gadalaxva. yvelaze mravlismTqmeli aris puti-
21
gancxadeba gakeTda putinis erTobliv pres-konferenciaze nato-s gener-
alur mdivan lord jorj robertsonTan da italiis premier-ministr silvio
berluskonisTan erTad 2002 wlis 28 maiss - http://www.kremlin.ru/appears/2002/05/28/
0003_type63374type63377type63380_28926.shtml (accessed August 6, 2008).
22
nis 2005 wlis aprilis gancxadeba, romlis mixedviTac sabWoTa kav-
Siris daSla `XX saukunis yvelaze did geopolitikur katastrofas
warmoadgens~
22
. vinaidan qveynis Sida faqtorebi metwilad gan-
sazRvraven ruseTis sagareo politikas, SeuZlebelia ignorireba
gavukeToT ruseTis Sida sisusteebs
23
.
xelisufleba: marTvadi demokratia
marTalia ruseTi Zlierad gamoiyureba, magram qveynis poli-
tikuri institutebi susti da mowyvladia. kremlma, SeinarCuna ra
demokratiuli procedurebi da ceremoniebi, mospo qveyanaSi
demokratiuli reJimis Camoyalibebis SesaZlebloba. qveyanaSi mo-
qmedebs Zlieri saprezidento sistema da susti saxelmwifo insti-
tutebi, maT Soris sakanonmdeblo da sasamarTlo. xelisuflebis
aRmasrulebeli Sto gavlenas axdens politikuri azris gamoxatvis
Tavisuflebaze masmediis, politikuri opoziciisa da samoqalaqo
sazogadoebis mkacri gakontrolebiT. samoqalaqo Tavisuflebebis
SezRudvis kuTxiT ruseTma kidev ufro ukan daixia 2007 wlis sapar-
lamento arCevnebze evropis usafrTxoebisa da TanamSromlobis
organizaciis (euTo) damkvirvebelTa ardaSvebiT.
naTqvamia, rom demokratiaSi saarCevno wesebi naTelia, xolo Sede-
gi ucnobi. ruseTSi piriqiT - Sedegi naTelia, xolo saarCevno wesebi
bundovani. kremli Tavad qmnis saarCevno sistemas sasurveli Sede-
gebis miRebis mizniT. saarCevno kanonebis cvlilebiT Zalauflebis
konsolidaciisa da saxelisuflebo vertikalis Camoyalibebis
saukeTeso magaliTs 2005 wels gubernatorebis arCevnebis gauqmeba
warmoadgens. Sedegad prezidenti Tavad irCevs gubernators, romel-
sac mogvianebiT adgilobrivi sakanonmdeblo organo amtkicebs.
garda amisa, parlamentSi gamsvleli barieri gaizarda 7%-mde da
SemoiRes arCevnebis proporciuli sistema. aRniSnulma cvlilebeb-
ma gamoiwvia liberaluri opoziciuri partiebis marginalizacia
da 2007 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg sakanonmdeblo orga-
nos ZiriTadad marTvadi partiebiT dakompleqteba.
garda amisa, ruseTSi Camoyalibda maRali Tanmdebobis pirTa kas-
ta, romlebic marTalia formalurad ar floben, magram srulad
22
prezidentis mimarTva ruseTis federaciis federalur krebas 2005 wlis 25
aprils http://www.kremlin.ru/appears/2005/04/25/ 1223_type63372type63374type82634
_87049.shtml (accessed August 6, 2008).
23
Stephen White, Zvi Gitelman and Richard Sakwa, Developments in Russian Politics (6
th
edition, Duke University Press, 2005), 222-232.
Tavi meore
23
akontroleben ruseTis yvela strategiul sawarmos. isini warmoad-
genen gansakuTrebiT mdidar da gavlenian pirebs, magram ukidure-
sad arian damokidebulni sakuTar Tanamdebobebze, rac niSnavs, rom
2008 wels, prezidentis cvlilebis gamo Seqmnil gardamaval etapze,
romelic miuxedavad arCevnebis Catarebisa jer kidev ar dasrule-
bula, fsonebi gansakuTrebiT maRali iqneba.
saxelmwifos mflobelobaSi myofi an mis mier kontrolirebadi
masmediis saSualebebi gamoiyeneba rogorc instrumentebi sasurve-
li sazogadoebrivi azris Sesaqmnelad. 2000 wlis Semdeg 13 Jurnal-
isti mokles, ris gamoc jer aravin dasjila. interneti iqca gansx-
vavebuli azris dafiqsirebis erTaderT saSualebad. rusuli `mar-
Tvadi demokratia~ zRudavs samoqalaqo aqtivobas da sazogadoe-
briv debatebs. rusuli arasamTavrobo organizaciebi, gansakuTre-
biT ucxouri fondebis mier dafinansebulni, mudmivi saxelmwifo
zewolis qveS imyofebian mas Semdeg, rac 2006 wels miRebulma kanon-
ma registraciisa da angariSis wardgenis mkacri wesebi daadgina.
kritikulad ganwyobili eqspertebis gancxadebiT, putinis admin-
istraciam ar gaatara uamravi reforma, rac mmarTvelobis xarisxs
gaaumjobesebda. 2001 wlis Semdeg sajaro moxeleTa raodenoba
ruseTSi oficialuri monacemebiT 40%-iT gaizarda da amJamad 1.6
milions Seadgens, rac daaxloebiT sabWoTa biurokratias utolde-
ba. damoukidebeli eqspertebis monacemebiT, rusuli biurokratia,
adgilobrivi donis moxeleebis CaTvliT, 3.5 milions Seadgens. mi-
uxedavad xelfasebis saSualo donis sagrZnobi zrdisa, mmarTvelo-
bis xarisxi dabali rCeba. 2006 wlis msoflio bankis kvlevaSi, kano-
nis uzenaesobisa da korufciis kontrolis mixedviT, ruseTi 212
qveyanaSi ukanasknel meoTxedSi moxvda. saxelmwifos eqspansia ker-
Zo seqtorSi iwvevs investorTa SeSfoTebas, aferxebs ekonomikur
ganviTarebas da xels uwyobs korufcias.
24
putinis prezidentobis
periodSi biurokratiuli da biznes elitebis mWidro kavSiri war-
moadgens mmarTveli elitis SeuzRudavi Zalauflebis naTel ilus-
tracias:
prezidentis administraciis 11 wevri Sedioda qveynis eqvsi
umsxvilesi saxelmwifo kompaniis direqtorTa sabWoebSi, maT
Soris: prezidentis administraciis ufrosis moadgile igor
24
Edward Lucas, Putin In Power in The New Cold War Putins Russia and the Threat to
the West (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), 37-57.
sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
24
seCini
25
- ruseTis yvelaze didi navTobkompaniis, `rosneft-
is~ direqtorTa sabWos Tavmjdomare; putinis TanaSemwe viq-
tor ivanovi
26
- qveynis erT-erTi umTavresi samxedro sawar-
mos, `almaz-anTeisa~ da `aeroflotis~ direqtorTa sabWoeb-
is Tavmjdomare; prezidentis pres-mdivani aleqsei gromovi
27
- ruseTis umTavresi satelevizio arxis, `ort~-s direqtor-
Ta sabWos Tavmjdomare;
mTavrobis 15 umaRles Tanamdebobis pirs ekava eqvsi direq-
torTa sabWos Tavmjdomaris da 24 direqtorTa sabWos wevris
Tanamdeboba. maT Soris: pirveli vice-premierebi dimitri
medvedevi
28
- `gazpromis~ direqtorTa sabWos Tavmjdomare
da sergei ivanovi
29
- samxedro-samrewvelo kompleqsis
zedamxedveli da aviamSeneblobisa da gemTmSeneblobis sax-
elmwifo korporaciebis direqtorTa sabWoebis Tavmjdomare;
klanuri mmarTveloba: Kremlin Inc.
ruseTis Rirsebisa da prestiJis aRdgenis misia prezidentma putin-
ma sabWoTa kavSiris himnis dabrunebiT, prosaxelisuflebo axal-
gazrduli dajgufebebis CamoyalibebiT da saxelmwifo uSiSroebis
komitetis (suk) yovlisSemZle oficris kultis aRdgeniT daiwyo.
magram miuxedavad am sabWoTa arqetipebis dabrunebisa, putini ar
aris dainteresebuli sabWoTa kavSiris kopirebaSi. misi xedviT, ruse-
Tis gza didebis mwvervalisken gadis Tanamedrove avtoritaruli
korporaciuli saxelmwifos mSeneblobaze. putinis mmarTvelobis
periodSi kremlis mier saSinao Tu sagareo politikis formirebaze
damkvirvebel eqspertTa Soris popularuli gaxda kremlis -
rogorc erTiani korporaciis warmoCena.
prezidentobis rva wlis ganmavlobaSi putini amkvidrebda saku-
Tar, rogorc ruseTis erTpirovnuli mmarTvelis imijs. misi, xSir
SemTxvevaSi, moulodneli da erTi SexedviT logikas acdenili gada-
wyvetilebebi, romlis magaliTebic misi prezidentobis periodSi
25
2008 wlis maisidan ruseTis mTavrobis pirveli vice-premieri. kurirebs
mrewvelobis, energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis sferoebs. rosneft~-Tan
erTad gaerTianebuli gemTmSenebeli korporaci~-is direqtorTa sabWos Tavmj-
domare.
26
2008 wlis maisidan ruseTis narkotikebis kontrolis federaluri samsax-
uris xelmZRvaneli.
27
2008 wlis maisidan prezidentis administraciis ufrosis moadgile
28
2008 wlis maisidan ruseTis federaciis prezidenti.
29
2008 wlis maisidan ruseTis mTavrobis vice-premieri
Tavi meore
25
uamravi iyo, swored am imijis ganmtkicebas emsaxureboda. magram
sinamdvileSi ruseTi imarTeboda koleqtiuri mmarTvelobiT - `ko-
rporacia kremlis~ erTgvari `direqtorTa sabWos~ mier. putini war-
moadgenda am elitaruli dajgufebis yvelaze gavlenian wevrs da
mis saxes sazogadoebaSi. aRniSnuli dajgufeba putinis msgavsad Zir-
iTadad Sedgeboda suk-is veteranebisgan da peterburgelebisgan.
isini erTad marTavdnen ruseTs da akontrolebdnen qveynis
ekonomikis umniSvnelovanes komponentebs. yvela ZiriTadi poli-
tikuri gadawyvetileba, rogorc saSinao ise sagareo politikaSi,
warmoadgenda im viwro wris gansjisa da wevrebs Soris konsensusis
Sedegs, romelsac eqspertebi `koleqtiur putins~ uwodeben.
`Tuki sabWoTa da postsabWoTa pirvel periodSi suk-isa da ufs-
is TanamSromlebi ZiriTadad uSiSroebis sakiTxebSi iyvnen CarTulni
... dRes maTi naxevari CarTulia biznesSi, politikur partiebSi,
arasamTavrobo organizaciebSi, regionul mTavrobebSi da kultur-
aSic ki. maT daiwyes yvela politikuri institutis gamoyeneba~ -
acxadebs moskovis elitebis Semswavleli centris direqtori, olga
kriStanovskaia
30
. 2006 wels, ruseTis 1016 wamyvani politikuri fig-
uris biografiebis mis mier gakeTebulma analizma cxadyo, rom maTi
26% msaxurobda suk-Si an mis memkvidre organoebSi. maTi biografie-
bis kidev ufro detaluri analizisas - reziumeebSi bundovanebiT
moculi periodebis da suk-Tan asocirebul organizaciebSi muSao-
bis Seswavlisas - aRmoCnda rom kidev 52% sakuTari karieris
garkveul etapze iribad mainc uSiSroebaze muSaobda. swored uSiS-
roebis samsaxurebis gavlenis zrda warmoadgens erT-erT umniS-
vnelovanes komponents ruseTSi `Zalauflebis vertikalis~ Camoy-
alibebasa da damajerebeli sagareo politikis gatarebaSi. ruse-
Tis an sabWoTa istoriaSi, uSiSroebis organoebis ekonomikuri da
politikuri gavlena arasodes ar yofila iseTi, rogorc es dRes
aris
31
.
miuxedavad piradad prezident putinisadmi maTi erTgulebisa,
`korporacia kremlis~ wevrTa xedvebi da interesebi xSir SemTxvevaSi
gansxvavdeba erTmaneTisgan. putinis prezidentobis periodSi,
30
Piter Finn, In Russia, A Secretive Force Widens, The Washington Post, December 12,
2006, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/11/AR200612110
1434.html (accessed August 6, 2008).
31
Victor Yasmann, Russia: Siloviki Take The Reigns In Post-Oligarchy Era, Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, September 17, 2007, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1078686.html
(accessed August 6, 2008).
sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
26
kremlSi SegviZlia gamovyoT sami ZiriTadi dajgufeba, romelic
qveyanaSi prezidentis keTilganwyobisa da gavlenisTvis ibrZoda:
1. `liberalebi~ - yvelaze susti dajgufeba samidan, romelic
Sedgeba ekonomistebisa da yofili biznesmenebisgan. dajgufe-
bis liderebi arian aleqsei kudrini
32
, german grefi
33
da
mixail zurabovi
34
. miuxedavad imisa, rom maTi xedva dasav-
luri liberalizmTan SedarebiT ekonomikaSi saxelmwifos
ufro did intervencias gulisxmobs, igi sxva dajgufebebTan
SedarebiT gacilebiT ufro metad aris sabazro ekonomikaze
orientirebuli.
2. `teqnokratebi~ - dajgufebas putinis prezidentobis peri-
odSi ruseTis pirveli vice-premieri da `gazpromis~ direq-
torTa sabWos Tavmjdomare dimitri medvedevi da `gazpro-
mis~ prezidenti aleqsei mileri xelmZRvanelobs. am jgufis
mTavar iaraRs warmoadgens saxelmwifo gazis monopolia `gaz-
promi~, riTac isini seriozul gavlenas axdenen qveynis saSi-
nao da sagareo politikur gadawyvetilebebze.
3. `silovikebi~ - dReisTvis kremlSi yvelaze gavleniani da-
jgufeba, romelic TiTqmis srulad akontrolebs Zalovan
saministroebs da specsamsaxurebs, putinis prezidentobis
periodSi ruseTSi yvelaze gavlenian saxelmwifo struqtu-
ras - prezidentis administracias da uamrav msxvil korpo-
racias, maT Soris `rosnefts~, `rosoboroneqsports~, `al-
maz-anTeis~, `aeroflots~, `ruseTis rkinigzas~, `vneSekonom-
banks~, `meJprombanks~ da `bank rosias~.
`silovikebi~
ukanaskneli rva wlis ganmavlobaSi kremlSi yvelaze gavlenian
dajgufebas warmoadgenda Zalovnebis - e.w. `silovikebis~ dajgufe-
ba, romelSic ZiriTadad uSiSroebis samsaxurebis veterani da amJa-
mindeli TanamSromlebi Sedian. dajgufebaSi, romlis araformalur
lideradac Tavad suk-is yofili TanamSromeli vladimir putini
iTvleba, Sedis ruseTis specsamsaxurebis 6000-ze meti TanamSrome-
32
ruseTis finansTa ministri 2000-08 ww.
33
ruseTis ekonomikuri ganviTarebisa da vaWrobis ministri 2000-07 ww.
34
ruseTis janmrTelobis dacvisa da socialuri ganviTarebis ministri 2004-
07 ww.
Tavi meore
27
li, romelic misi prezidentobis dasawyisSi sxvadasxva Tanamdebobe-
bze dainiSnen. dajgufebis xelmZRvanelebi da ZiriTadi birTvis
wevrebi arian:
igor seCini - 1999-2008 ww. ruseTis prezidentis administraci-
is ufrosis moadgile da `rosneftis~ direqtorTa sabWos
Tavmjdomare. dRemde erT-erTi yvelaze gavleniani poli-
tikuri figura ruseTis mmarTvel elitaSi. rusuli presa da
saeqsperto wre swored mas miawers `iukosis saqmis~ momzade-
bas da mis ganxorcielebas. garda amisa, igi pasuxismgebeli
iyo prezidentis Sexvedrebis grafikis Sedgenaze;
sergei ivanovi - 2001-07 ww. ruseTis Tavdacvis ministri. erT-
erTi iSviaTi Tanamdebobis piri, romelsac putinisgan
damoukideblad SeeZlo strategiulad mniSvnelovani saSi-
nao da sagareo gadawyvetilebebis miReba;
viqtor ivanovi - 2000-04 ww. ruseTis prezidentis adminis-
traciis ufrosis moadgile, 2004-08 prezidentis TanaSemwe,
`almaz-anTei~-s da `aeroflotis~ direqtorTa sabWos Tavmj-
domare. pasuxs agebda biznessa da saxelmwifo struqturebSi
sakadro daniSvnebze;
nikolai patruSevi - 1999-08 ww. ruseTis yvelaze gavlenini
specsamsaxuris - uSiSroebis federaluri samsaxuris direq-
tori da antiteroristuli komitetis xelmZRvaneli.
CamoTvlil pirovnebebis msoflmxedvelobaze gansakuTrebuli
gavlena iqonia iuri andropovis
35
ideebma, rac ar aris gasakviri Tu
gaviTvaliswinebT, rom yvela maTganma, putinis CaTvliT swored an-
dropovis suk-is Tavmjdomareobis periodSi daiwyo am organiza-
ciaSi msaxuri. 1984 wels mis gardacvalebamde, andropovi cdilob-
da gardaeqmna sabWoTa kavSiris ekonomika, raTa ufro konkuren-
tunariani gaexada igi da amasTan erTad SeenarCunebina qveyanaSi av-
toritaruli politikuri sistema, romelSic wamyvan rols suk-i
iTamaSebda. swored amis gamo, `silovikebisTvis~ idealur models
warmoadgens CineTi, romelmac politikuri Zalauflebis komunis-
turi partiisTvis SenarCunebiT, moaxdina ekonomikis liberaliza-
cia. andropovma, romelic sabWoTa kavSiris liderad gaxdomidan
15 TveSi gardaicvala, ver moaswro aRniSnuli gegmis ganxorciele-
ba, Tumca, misi gardacvalebidan 15 wlis Semdeg xelisuflebaSi mo-
35
suk-is Tavmjdomare 1967-82 ww. sabWoTa kavSiris komunisturi partiis gen-
eraluri mdivani 1982-84 ww.
sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
28
sulma andropovis moswavleebma suk-dan swored misi kursi airCies
ruseTis ganviTarebis gzad. aRsaniSnavia, rom dajgufebis yvela
lideri suk-is veterani da warmoSobiT sankt-peterburgeli aris.
maT, garda saerTo warsulisa, ruseTis ganviTarebis saerTo xedva
aerTianebT:
centralizebul saxelmwifoSi politikuri da ekonomikuri
Zalauflebis konsolidacia;
saxelmwifos monawileoba qveynis ekonomikis strategiul se-
qtorebSi da sagareo investiciebis SezRudva qveynis bunebrivi
resursebis aTvisebaSi;
saerTaSoriso arenaze ruseTis siZlieris aRdgena armiis ga-
ZlierebiTa da yofili sabWoTa qveynebis maqsimaluri rein-
tegraciis gziT;
ruseTis marTlmadidebluri eklesiis nacionalisturi, qse-
nofobiuri da zog SemTxvevaSi antisemituri xedvebis mx-
ardaWera.
sagareo urTierTobebSi dajgufeba dasavleTis mimarT ufro
mkacri politikis gatarebas emxroba. miuxedavad imisa, rom ruse-
Tis `didi saxelmwifos~ statusis aRdgenis aucileblobas kremlis
yvela dajgufeba eTanxmeba, `silovikebi~ gamoirCevian sakuTari
radikalizmiT sagareo politikaSi. isini mxars uWeren iranis ms-
gavs `urC~ saxelmwifoebTan daaxloebas da aSS-is dasabalanseblad
CineTTan TanamSromlobis gaRrmavebas. Tumca, am ukanasknel alianss
aferxebs `silovikebis~ SeSfoTeba CineTis mzardi politikuri,
ekonomikuri da samxedro gavleniT da rusuli qsenofobia. miuxe-
davad amisa, CineTi ganixileba yvelaze ufro misaReb partniorad
moklevadian perspeqtivaSi, rasac adasturebs maTi savaWro brun-
vis, `silovikebis~ mier kontrolirebad kompaniebsa da Cinur sax-
elmwifo korporaciebs Soris Seqmnili erToblivi sawarmoebis
raodenobisa da `Sanxais TanamSromlobis organizaciis~ mniSvnelo-
bis zrda. yofil sabWoTa sivrceSi dajgufeba mxars uWers agresi-
ul ekonomikur da politikur integracias.
putinis prezidentobis periodSi `silovikebis~ gavlenis zrdas
ZiriTadad ganapirobebda ruseTis ekonomikaSi maTi Careva. maT Zir-
iTadi roli iTamaSes ruseTis navTobis sferos renacionalizacia-
Si - 2001 wlis Semdeg qveynis navTobis seqtoris 44%-ze meti saxelm-
wifo sakuTrebaSi gadavida. aRniSnuli gadasvlis procesis ZiriTa-
di nawili Cumad mimdinareobda. Tumca, erT-erTi iSviaTi gamonak-
Tavi meore
29
lisi, `iukosis~ gaxmaurebuli saqme, naTlad gviCvenebs im sqemas,
romliTac `silovikebi~ qveynis ekonomikis umsxviles sawarmoebs
xelSi igdebdnen. aRsaniSnavia, rom dajgufebis erT-erTi lideri,
igor seCini uSualod Rebulobda monawileobas `iukosis~ winaaRm-
deg masalebis momzadebaSi da Tavad xelmZRvanelobda korporaci-
is winaaRmdeg warmoebul kampanias.
ekonomikaSi aqtiurad Carevis garda, `silovikebis~ gavlenis zr-
das uSiSroebis samsaxurebisadmi putinis damokidebulebamac Seuw-
yo xeli. prezidentad arCevis Semdeg, misi warsulidan gamomdinare,
aRniSnuli samsaxurebi mis ZiriTad sayrdenad iqcnen. sagareo poli-
tikaSi gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani roli mieniWa sadazvervo sam-
saxurebs, romelTac putini ruseTis strategiuli Tavdacvis um-
niSvnelovanes komponentad miiCnevda da aqtiurad iyenebda maT
rusuli diplomatiisa da ekonomikis mxardasaWerad. ruseTis sadaz-
vervo samsaxurebi putinis miTiTebebiT ZiriTadad sami mima-
rTulebiT muSaoben:
1. samxedro dazverva - Sedis ruseTis Tavdacvis saministros
mTavari sadazvervo sammarTvelos (mss) kompetenciaSi, rom-
lis umTavres obieqtebs warmoadgenen aSS-is raketsawinaaRm-
dego, kosmosuri da `stelsis~ teqnologiebi da samxedro
bazebi centralur aziaSi. garda amisa, aRniSnuli samsaxuri
aqtiurad moqmedebs dsT-is sivrceSi arsebul konfliqtis
zonebSi, maT Soris saqarTveloSic
36
.
2. politikuri dazverva - eqvemdebareba ruseTis sagareo daz-
vervis samsaxurs (sds), romelic ZiriTadad piradi kavSireb-
is, presisa da internetis gamoyenebiT muSaobs da mWidrod
TanamSromlobs mss-Tan da ufs-Tan. aRniSnuli samsaxuris Zir-
iTad moqmedebis scenas dasavleTis ganviTarebul saxelmwi-
foebTan erTad, yofili sabWoTa qveynebi warmoadgennen
37
.
36
oficialuri Tbilisis mtkicebiT, q.gorSi 1 Tebervals momxdari teroris-
tuli aqtis erT-erTi organizatori swored mTavari sadazvervo sammarTvelos
polkovniki anatoli sisoevi iyo (Jean-Christophe Peuch, Georgia: Tbilisi Says Russian
Officers Behind Gori Bombing, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 26, 2005, http://
www.rferl.org/content/article/1060186.html, accessed August 6, 2008), xolo 2006 wlis Se-
modgomaze saqarTvelom mss-is oTxi jaSuSi daakava da rusul mxares gadasca.
37
aRsaniSnavia 2006 wlis noemberSi kanadidan mss-is jaSuSis viliam hempelis
deportacia da TbilisSi 2007 wlis noembris areulobebSi mss-is oficrebis monaw-
ileoba (saqarTvelos Sinagan saqmeTa saministros oficialuri veb-gverdi, 9
noemberi, 2007 weli, http://police.ge/curview.aspx?newsid=30470&categoryid=1#, accessed
August 6, 2008)
sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
30
3. ekonomikuri dazverva - ZiriTadad muSaobs samxedro te-
qnologiebis mopovebaze.
38
garda amisa, axorcieleben ruse-
Tis strategiuli mrewvelobebis xelisSemwyob sadazvervo
qmedebebs, ris gamoc sargebloben gavleniT qveynis Sida
ekonomikazec. aRniSnuli saxis dazverviTi saqminoba aqti-
urad gamoiyeneba rusuli saxelmwifo korporaciebis mier,
romlebic putinis mmarTvelobis periodSi aqtiur saerTa-
Soriso eqspansias eweodnen.
ekonomika: nedleulze damokidebuleba da saxelmwifo inter-
vencia
ukanaskneli 8 wlis ganmavlobaSi saSualod 7%-iani zrdis miuxe-
davad, ruseTis ekonomika didwilad damokidebuli aris nedleu-
lis, gansakuTrebiT navTobis, bunebrivi airisa da liTonebis
eqsportze, rac mas mowyvlads xdis nedleulis saerTaSoriso baz-
arze fasebis cvlilebis gamo. putinis prezidentobis wlebSi sax-
elmwifo stabilurad zrdida sakuTar wils qveynis ekonomikaSi da
Sedegad masze kontrols. saxelmwifo Carevis mxriv, liderebs war-
moadgenen energoresursebis sfero, samxedro-samrewvelo kompleq-
si da samoqalaqo birTvuli seqtori, romlebic srulad kon-
troldeba saxelmwifos mier. aRsaniSnavia, rom samive seqtoris war-
matebulad da momgebianad muSaobisTvis ruseTs xels aZlevs arast-
abiluri viTareba rig regionebSi:
1. energoresursebi - navTobisa da gazis seqtorSi TavisTavad
Cadebulia moTxovna arastabilurobaze arabul samyaroSi.
2000 wels, rodesac putini xelisuflebaSi movida, navTobis
fasi 18-dan 20 dolaramde meryeobda. dRes es maCvenebeli 140
dolars aRemateba. misi prezidentobis periodSi sagrZno-
blad gaizarda bunebrivi airis fasic. aRniSnuli fasebis
zrda upiratesad gamowveulia sabrZolo moqmedebebiT avRa-
neTsa da eraySi da axlo aRmosavleTSi arsebuli arastabil-
uri situaciiT.
2. samxedro-samrewvelo kompleqsi - jer kidev sabWoTa kav-
Siris droidan, ruseTi cdilobda sxvadasxva konfliqtis
monawile yvela mxarisTvis mieyida iaraRi, rogorc es iranisa
da erayis 1980-iani wlebis omis dros an 1990-iani wlebis
38
2005 wels iaponiis policiam ruseTis savaWro misiis wevri daadanaSaula
saidumlo samxedro teqnologiebis Sesyidvis mcdelobaSi.
Tavi meore
31
dasawyisSi saqarTveloSi momxdari konfliqtebis dros xde-
boda. rusi eqspertebi yovelTvis aRniSnavdnen, rom iaraRis
eqsporti qmnis mokavSireebs. dRes rusuli iaraRis yvelaze
didi importiorebi `didi saxelmwifoebidan~ ruseTis yvelaze
axlo mokavSireebi, CineTi da indoeTi arian.
3. samoqalaqo birTvuli seqtori - `samoqalaqo~ birTvuli
reaqtori xSirad win uswrebs samxedro birTvuli programis
dawyebas. msgavsi eWvi gaCnda iranis mimarTac, rodesac ruseT-
ma misTvis birTvuli reaqtoris mSeneblobaze daiwyo muSao-
ba. aRniSnuli eWvebi putinma araerTxel gamoiyena dasavleT-
Tan vaWrobis sagnad.
kremlis mier sakuTari merkantilizmis gamarTlebas, rac iwvevs
bunebrivi resursebis sferoSi dasavluri investiciebis wilis
SezRudvas, negatiuri gavlena aqvs aSS-sa da evropasTan urTierTo-
bebze. xelisuflebis mier biznesis Zaladobrivi gziT xelSi Cagdeba
zrdis ruseTSi biznesis keTebis politikur riskebs da aferxebs qvey-
nis ekonomikaSi investiciebis Semosvlas. miuxedavad imisa, rom ucx-
ouri investiciebis moculoba ruseTSi wlidan wlamde izrdeba,
eqspertTa gancxadebiT, es maCvenebeli gacilebiT dabalia qveynis
masiurad moZvelebuli infrastruqturisa da ekonomikis saSualod
7%-iani zrdis fonze.
ideologiebi da daZabuloba rusul sazogadoebaSi
rusul sazogadoebaSi arsebuli tendenciebi gamomdinareobs misi
istoriidan da memkvidreobidan. saukuneebis ganmavlobaSi mefis
ruseTisa da sabWoTa kavSiris dros totalitaruli mmarTvelobis
qveS cxovrebam ruseTSi aRzarda Taobebi, romlebic upiratesad
pativs scemen Zalauflebas, xolo stabilurobas Tavisuflebaze
metad afaseben.
sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg prodasavluri ideologia aR-
mavlobas ganicdida, Tumca, arc Tu ise didi xniT. 1991 wels
damoukidebeli ruseTis federaciis SeqmniT, kremli cdilobda
moeTavsebina mravalerovani sazogadoeba erT araimperiul er-sax-
elmwifoSi. Tumca, Sesaferisi ideologiisa da saxelmwifos
mSeneblobis strategiis arqonam elcinis prezidentobis bolos
ruseTis ekonomikuri dasusteba da saerTaSoriso gavlenis Semcir-
eba gamoiwvia, ris gamoc naxevrad reformirebul postsabWoTa el-
itaSi dasavluri liberaluri modelisadmi mtruli ganwyoba gaCn-
sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
32
da.
ukanaskneli 8 wlis ganmavlobaSi ruseTis mmarTveli partia, `er-
Tiani ruseTi~ agzavnis iseT `araideologiur mesijebs~, rogoric
aris sabazro ekonomikisa da Zlieri saxelmwifos `harmoniuli
Tanaarseboba~ da cdilobs kulturulad prorusuli orientaciis
rusul eTnikurobasTan gaigivebas. ZiriTadma liberalurma partie-
bma, `iablokom~ da memarjvene ZalTa kavSirma~ ver moaxerxes sazoga-
doebaSi saTanado mxardaWeris mopoveba. `liberal-demokratiuli
partia~ da `rodina~ qsenofobiuri devizebis erTgulni rCebian.
gavleniani politikuri partiebis umetesoba mzad aris amomrCevel-
Ta xmebis misaRebad aqtiurad gamoiyenos qsenofobiuri ritorika.
aRniSnuli midgoma saSualebas aZlevs kremls gamoacxados sazR-
vargareT mcxovrebi rusulenovani mosaxleoba rusebad da izrun-
os maT `usafrTxoebaze~ iseTi qmedebebiT, rogorc es magaliTad
afxazeTSi xdeba - ruseTis moqalaqis pasportebis darigebiTa da
rusi samxedroebis SeyvaniT.
xelisuflebasTan daaxloebuli eqspertebi
xelisuflebasTan daaxloebuli wamyvani rusi strategebidan gav-
lenis mixedviT SegviZlia gamovyoT inteleqtuali pragmatikose-
bi, romlebic dasavleTTan konstruqciul dapirispirebas uWeren
mxars. maTi mowinaaRmdegeebi am ideologiur dapirispirebaSi arian
Zalismieri kursis mimdevrebi (hard-liners), filosofosi evrazianistebi
da izolacionistebi. isini aSS-s warmoaCenen, rogorc ruseTis mters
da gvTavazoben masTan dapirispirebis sxvadasxva meTodebs. maTi naw-
ili fiqrobs, rom saWiroa aSS-sTan dapirispireba saerTaSoriso
asparezze, maSin rodesac sxvebi izolacionizmisken ixrebian. yvela
maTgans aqvs saSualeba warmoaCinos sakuTari xedva masmediis saSu-
alebiT, ramdenime ki gavleniTac ki sargeblobs kremlis zogierT
dajgufebaSi. magaliTad, pragmatikosebs, rogorc wesi, ruseTis
amJamindel prezident dimitri medvedevTan akavSireben, maSin rode-
sac sxvebi SesaZloa ufro radikal Zalovnebis - samxedroebisa da
specsamsaxurebis - frTas amjobinebdnen. Tavad putini preziden-
tobis ganmavlobaSi arasodes ar asocirdeboda romelime am kate-
goriasTan da yovelTvis cdilobda maT Soris balansis dacvas.
Tavi meore
33
pragmatikosebi
ruseTis sagareo politikaze momuSave sxvadasxva organizacieb-
is, kvleviTi institutebisa da Jurnalebis warmomadgeneli
eqspertebis nawili, romelTac SegviZlia pragmatikosebi vuwodoT,
mxars uWeren ruseTis damajerebel da mtkice sagareo politikas,
Tumca mouwodeben xelisuflebas Sors daiWiros Tavi ideologiuri
an refleqsuri antiamerikanizmisgan. eqspertebs Soris, romlebic
aSS-sTan konstruqciul dapirispirebas emxrobian, arian sagareo
da TavdacviTi politikis sabWos direqtori sergei karaganovi,
ruseTis mecnierebaTa akademiasTan arsebuli msoflio ekonomikisa
da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa institutis saerTaSoriso usa-
frTxoebis centris xelmZRvaneli aleqsei arbatovi da yovelk-
vartluri Jurnalis `ruseTi globalur politikaSi~ mTavari re-
daqtori fiodor lukianovi.
pragmatikosebis ideebs kargi gaSuqeba aqvT masmediaSi da aso-
cirdebian medvedevTan, Tumca kremlze maTi gavlenis mkafiod gan-
sazRvra SeuZlebelia. pragmatikosebTan daaxloebul politiko-
sebad moiazrebian finansTa ministri aleqsei kudrini da anatoli
Cubaisi, romlebic medvedevis mokavSireebad iTvlebian. aRniSnuli
dajgufeba mxars uWers sagareo politikis formirebisas ekonomikis
wonis gazrdas da ruseTis oficialur pozicias nato-s gafarToe-
basa da aSS-is saraketo Tavdacvis sistemaze. miuxedavad amisa, prag-
matikosebi afrTxileben xelisuflebas ar dauSvas pragmatuli mo-
sazrebebiT gansazRvruli sagareo politikis ideologiaze
dafuZnebul konfrontaciaSi gadasvla. isini skeptikurad uyureben
ruseTis sagareo politikis samxedro gadaiaraRebaze dafuZnebas
da ewinaaRmdegebian qveynis CarTvas mis sazRvrebs gareT warmoe-
bul ZiriTad omebSi. maTi azriT, ruseTma unda wamoayenos mza gada-
wyvetilebebi nacvlad aSS-is winadadebebis dablokvisa da Tavi Seika-
vos iseT qveynebTan axlo urTierTobebze, rogorebic arian irani
da CrdiloeT korea, mxolod maTi antiamerikanizmis gamo.
Zalismieri kursis mxardamWerebi
zogierTi gadamdgari maRali samxedro wodebis oficeri jer
kidev aqtiurad agrZelebs civi omis droindeli Sexedulebebis dac-
vas. maT Soris arian gadamdgari general-polkovniki leonid ivaS-
ovi, geopolitikuri problemebis akademiis vice-prezidenti da gad-
sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
34
amdgari general-maiori aleqsandr vladimirovi, samxedro
eqspertTa kolejis vice-prezidenti. isini geopolitikuri mo-
sazrebebidan gamomdinare aSS-ruseTis dapirispirebas xedaven,
rogorc bunebrivs da gamosavlad axal civ oms an aSS-is saboloo
hegemonias miiCneven. Zalismieri kursis mxardamWerebi regularu-
lad Cndebian mediaSi da maT mosazrebas iziarebs ruseTis Zalovani
struqturebis uamravi warmomadgeneli. isini mudmivad amtkiceben,
rom aSS ruseTis bunebrivi resursebis xelSi Casagdebad emzadeba
masTan omisTvis da am mizniT winaswar sazogadoebriv azrsac ki amza-
debs. aRniSnuli jgufi sxva eqspertebisgan imiT gamoirCeva, rom
samxedro potencialis gaZlierebas msoflio scenaze ruseTis ro-
lis aRdgenisa da aSS-is agresiis SeCerebis centralur elementad
miiCnevs. isini amtkiceben, rom ruseTi CamorCa CineTs samxedro Sesa-
ZleblobebSi, xolo mas Semdeg, rac CineTi birTvul Tanafardobas
miaRwevs, ruseTi dasavleTis garda aRmosavleTis zewolis qveSac
aRmoCndeba.
evrazianistebi
evrazianizmi, romelic `saerTaSoriso evraziuli moZraobis~
liderTan, filosofos aleqsandr duginTan aris gaigivebuli,
msoflios ramdenime gansxvavebuli civilizaciisgan Semdgars xe-
davs, romelTaganac ruseTi dominant rols TamaSobs evraziul
civilizaciaSi. dugini sakmaod didi yuradRebiT sargeblobs rusu-
li mediisgan, xolo mis xedvebs uamravi mxardamWeri hyavs rus
ZalovnebSi da nacionalisturad ganwyobil axalgazrdebSi. misi
xedviT, imperia warmoadgens ruseTisTvis `arsebobis erTaderT
formas, mis identurobas da bedisweras~. ruseTis amJamindel kon-
fliqtebs dasavleTTan dugini dausrulebeli civilizaciaTa Set-
akebis nawilad miiCnevs. ruseTis dapirispirebas aSS-sTan da brit-
aneTTan dugini `atlantikuri~ da `evraziuli~ civilizaciebis Wi-
dils uwodebs. Tumca, kontinenturi evropis im qveynebs, romlebic
ar axdenen sakuTari Tavis asocirebas arc aSS-sTan da arc ruseT-
Tan, dugini potenciur megobrebad ganixilavs. mTlianobaSi igi sax-
elmwifoebs afasebs aSS-sadmi maTi liderebis damokidebulebis
mixedviT. igi Tanabrad akritikebs liberalebsac da izolacion-
istebsac: `Tu proamerikelebi Tvlian, rom ruseTs mxolod erTi
mokavSire hyavs - aSS, da izolacionistebs miaCniaT rom ruseTis
mokavSireebi misi armia da floti aris, maSin evrazionistebis xed-
Tavi meore
35
viT ruseTs dRes uamravi mokavSire hyavs... es aris aRmosavleTisa da
dasavleTis qveynebi, romlebic uaryofen aSS-is hegemonias da uni-
polarul samyaros~.
izolacionistebi
eqspertTa nawili ruseTis geopolitikur izolacionizms uWers
mxars. isini miiCneven, rom ruseTis sidiade damokidebulia mis mier
dasavleTisgan da aziisgan kulturuli identurobis SenarCuneba-
ze. izolacionistebi arc Tu ise xSirad Cndebian mediaSi, rac maT
mimarT sust mxardaWeraze metyvelebs. isini Tanabrad upirispird-
ebian, rogorc zapadnikebs, agreTve evrazionistebs da miaCniaT, rom
ruseTis teritoriuli eqspansia ar unda gascdes sabWoTa kavSirs.
aRniSnuli dajgufebis warmomadgenlebi ruseTs msoflioSi marTl-
madidebluri rwmenis erTaderT CiraRdnad, mis damcvelad da gam-
avrceleblad miiCneven.
sagareo politikis ganmsazRvreli Sida faqtorebi
Tavi mesame
ruseTis sagareo
politika putinamde
ruseTis sagareo politika gorbaCovis dros
rodesac 1980-iani wlebis bolos mixail gorbaCovma `pere-
stroikisa~ da `axali sagareo politikis Camoyalibebis~ cnebebis
danergva daiwyo, mTavari mizani iyo, ar daeSva sabWoTa kavSiris
CamorCena ganviTarebul dasavleTTan mimarTebaSi ekonomikur da
teqnologiur sferoebSi da SeenarCunebina misi saerTaSoriso sta-
tusi. gorbaCovma daiwyo sabWoTa kavSiris sagareo politikisa da
misi miznebis gadaxedva, vinaidan qveyana kargavda saerTaSoriso
gavlenis SenarCunebisTvis aucilebel SesaZleblobebs.
strategiul miznad Tavidanve SeirCa saerTaSoriso arenaze sab-
WoTa kavSiris `did saxelmwifod~ (Great Power) dabruneba. gorbaCo-
vis mTavari miRweva iyo sagareo politikis ideologiisgan gawmen-
da da aRebuli valdebulebebis Semcireba, raTa koncentrireba mo-
mxdariyo saSinao reformebze. man uari Tqva sabWoTa kavSiris,
rogorc `zesaxelmwifos~ (Super Power) koncefciaze da daiwyo axa-
li, SedarebiT ufro zomieri `didi saxelmwifos~ rolis adapta-
cia.
gorbaCovma xazi gausva saerTaSoriso urTierTdamokidebule-
bas, saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobas da karg urTierTobebs dasav-
leTTan. sabWoTa kavSirSi arsebuli Zlieri tradiciisgan gansxvave-
biT, romelic sagareo politikaSi usafrTxoebis aspeqtebsa da
samxedro saSualebebze iyo damokidebuli, gorbaCovma aqcenti sa-
gareo politikis arasamxedro instrumentebze gaakeTa, gansakuTre-
biT ekonomikur aspeqtebsa da ekonomikur saSualebebze. Sedegad
qveynis politika miznad isaxavda gaezarda kremlis xelT arsebuli
resursebi Sida reformebis xarjze da Seemcirebina danaxarjebi
saerTaSoriso monawileobis Semcirebisa da aSS-sa da misi mokav-
37
39
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Andrey P. Tsygankov, The Post-Cold War
Euphoria and Russias Liberal Westernism in Russias Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in
National Identity (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2006), 55-91.
SireebTan kargi urTierTobebis SenarCunebiT. Tumca, gorbaCovs ar
dascalda dawyebuli reformebis bolomde miyvana, vinaidan mis mier
inicirebulma politikis gadaxedvis procesma daaCqara sabWoTa
blokisa da Tavad sabWoTa kavSiris daSla
39
.
ruseTis sagareo politika elcinis dros
prezidentma boris elcinma ganagrZo gorbaCovis mier dawyebu-
li procesi. misi strategia eyrdnoboda igives: ekonomikuri da
politikuri reformebi, saerTaSoriso TanamSromloba da daaxloe-
ba dasavleTTan. Tumca, elcinis prezidentobis dros ruseTis sa-
gareo politikis strategiuli mimarTuleba - sagareo pirobebis
Seqmna saSinao reformebisTvis - daikarga prezidentTan daaxloe-
bul wreebSi ZalauflebisTvis, gavlenisa da fulisTvis dawyebuli
brZolis gamo. sagareo politika iqca brZolis velad, sadac erT-
maneTs upirispirdeboda ZalauflebisTvis mebrZolTa interesebi.
mTavrobis pasiurobis gamo politika dinebas iyo mindobili da
wina planze instituciurma interesebma wamoiwia. amis ilustracia
aris 1990-iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi yofili sabWoTa kavSiris
teritoriaze arsebuli SeiaraRebuli konfliqtebis mimarT ruse-
Tis mier gatarebuli politika. maSin rodesac mTavroba ganze gad-
ga da Tavi Seikava am konfliqtebSi Carevisgan, iniciativa sakuTar
Tavze rusulma samxedro sistemam aiRo.
1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi elcinis garSemo Semokrebili
demokratebi cdilobdnen Tavi aeridebinaT ruseTis `didi saxelm-
wifos~ statusisTvis dabrunebaze ganxilvaSi monawileobisgan, vi-
naidan SiSobdnen, rom maT `axali imperializmis~ an `didi saxelmwi-
fos sindromis~ gamo gaakritikebdnen. miuxedavad sakuTari ga-
naTlebisa da gambedaobisa, axalgazrda reformatorebma sisuste
da arakompetenturoba gamoavlines. swored maTma warumateblobam
ganapiroba ruseTis Zalauflebisa da simdidris moyvarul adamian-
Ta, e.w. `oligarqebis~ xelSi gadasvla. finansurma da politikurma
korufciam epidemiuri xasiaTi miiRo. yofili suki (kgb) TandaTano-
biT gamovida Crdilidan da sakuTari Rirebulebebis - avtorita-
rizmisa da qsenofobiis danergva daiwyo. ruseTis regionebSi da
respublikebSi adgilobrivi mmarTvelebi iqceodnen sakuTari sur-
ruseTis sagareo politika putinamde
38
vilebis da interesebis mixedviT. xolo is saSualebebi, romlebsac
elcini da misi gundi iyenebda Zalauflebis SesanarCuneblad
sasikvdilo aRmoCnda ruseTis mcdelobebisTvis Camoeyalibebina
kanonierebaze da Tavisuflebaze dafuZnebuli sistema. maTma six-
arbem da ZalauflebisTvis brZolam sabolood moaxdina prodasav-
luri Rirebulebebis, mravalpartiuli sistemisa da sabazro
ekonomikis ideebis diskreditireba.
Sedegad, 1993 wels, ruseTis erovnuli interesebis daucvelo-
bisa da dasavleTis `Wkuaze siarulis~ gamo dawyebuli kritikis ze-
woliT, elcini da misi sagareo saqmeTa ministri, andrei kozirevi
daubrundnen `did saxelmwifoseul~ ritorikas da dsT-is blokSi
liderobisa da aSS-Tan Tanasworuflebianobis pretenziebs. ruse-
Tis mTavrobam airCia SedarebiT ufro mkacri ritorika da saSinao
reformebis gatarebis mizniT sagareo asparezze daxevis strategia
ukana planze gadavida. Sedegad ruseTis politikam dsT-is sivrce-
Si gazarda gaurkvevloba ruseTis miznebis Sesaxeb da xSir SemTx-
vevaSi madestabilizirebeli faqtoris rolic ki iTamaSa.
1996 wlis ianvrisTvis didi ufskruli gaCnda ruseTis sagareo
ambiciebsa da mis SesaZleblobebs Soris. aRniSnuli metwilad
gamowveuli iyo ruseTis warumateblobiT saqmiT mihyoloda saku-
Tar ritorikas da eTamaSa yofil sabWoTa teritoriaze ekonomikuri
da samxedro gamaerTianeblisa da usafrTxoebis garantoris roli.
Sedegad gaCnda saWiroeba ruseTis ambiciebis droebiT daokebisa,
raTa momxdariyo arsebuli resursebis ukeT morgeba SesaZlebel
miznebTan. evgeni primakovi
40
, miuxedavad imisa, rom dasavleTi mas
antidasavlurad ganwyobil da sabWoTa stiliT moazrovned Tvli-
da, iyo is figura, romelmac Seatriala ruseTi ufro pragmatuli
da TavSekavebuli politikisken yofil sabWoTa teritoriaze, raTa
Seemcirebina sxvaoba politikis deklaraciebsa da realur SesaZle-
blobebs Soris.
amavdroulad primakovi cdilobda aRedgina ruseTis sagareo
politikis strategiuli mimarTuleba - saSinao reformebis war-
matebis Sedegad ruseTis `didi saxelmwifos~ statusiT dabruneba.
am mizniT primakovma ruseTis sagareo politikur azrovnebaSi
daabruna aleqsand gorCakovis
41
saxeli. gorCakovs yirimis omSi
42
Tavi mesame
40
ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa ministri 1996-98 ww. da premier-ministri 1998-
99 ww.
41
ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa ministri 1856-82 ww.
42
1853-1856 wlebi.
39
damarcxebis Semdeg daevala ruseTis sagareo politikis gadaxalise-
ba. yirimis omi, romelSic ruseTi CaerTo erT-erTi `didi saxelmwi-
fos~ statusiT, misTvis damamcirebeli zaviT da evropuli saxelm-
wifoebisgan samxedro da ekonomikuri CamorCenilobiT dasrulda.
politika, romelic gorCakovma Camoayaliba da romelic Tan gas-
devda misi ministrobis periods, iyo mcdeloba, moexdina sagareo
politikis reorientacia, raTa dro da Sansi miscemoda ruseTs
aRedgina sakuTari siZliere. man moaxdina saSinao reformebis kom-
binireba grZelvadian sagareo politikur mizanTan - daebrunebina
`didi saxelmwifos~ statusi. gorCakovis politikas saukeTesod
gamoxatavs misive fraza - `ruseTi ar brazdeba, ruseTi koncentr-
irebas axdens~. ruseTi swored rom koncentrirebas axdenda - qmni-
da saxarbielo sagareo pirobebs Sida reformebisTvis, romelTa
mizanic iyo ekonomikuri reabilitacia da ganviTareba. swored gor-
Cakoviseuli `koncentrirebis~ politika gaxda primakovis mTavari
memkvidreoba putinisadmi, rodesac igi 1999 wels xelisuflebaSi
movida.
miuxedavad elcinis mcdelobisa (erT weliwadze nakleb droSi 4
premier-ministri Seicvala), 1998 wlis agvistos finansurma krizis-
ma saboloo wertili dausva mis mmarTvelobas. aSkara gaxda, rom
saWiro iyo gacilebiT ufro masStaburi donis gamosavlis Zieba vi-
dre es mTavrobis cvlileba iyo. elcinis `ojaxis~ mier SeirCa yve-
lasTvis ucnobi da usaxuri kandidatura, romelic idealur garan-
tad sCanda maTi simdidrisa da usafrTxoebisTvis.
43
vladimir putinma sakuTari Tavis warmosaCenad da poziciebis
gasamyareblad Zalzed martivi taqtika airCia - man sazogadoebis
zizRi elcinis drois sixarbisa da qaosisadmi Secvala uaxloesi
safrTxeebisadmi (terorizmi, CeCneTis omi a.S.) SiSiT. moskovSi sacx-
ovrebeli korpusebis idumalebiT moculma afeTqebam gazarda sa-
zogadoebis moTxovna meti usafrTxoebisadmi, Tundac Tavisuflebis
Semcirebis xarjze, xolo CeCneTSi omis ganaxlebam putini oTx Tve-
Si erovnul gmirad aqcia.
44
ruseTis sagareo politika putinamde
43
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Andrey P. Tsygankov, The New Security
Challenges and Great Power Balancing in Russias Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in
National Identity (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2006), 91-127.
44
Edward Lucas, Putins Rise to Power in The New Cold War Putins Russia and the
Threat to the West (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), 19-37.
Tavi meoTxe
putinis sagareo politikis
pirveli faza 2000-2003
`koncentrireba~,
qveynis SigniT Zalauflebis
konsolidacia
da ekonomikuri reabilitacia
prezidentobis pirvel wlebSi putinis sagareo politikis
gasagebad mniSvnelovania ara saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa
Teoriebsa Tu koncefciebSi CaRrmaveba, aramed misi saSinao poli-
tikuri da ekonomikuri moRvaweobis Seswavla. putinis sagareo
politikis pirvel fazaSi, romelic 2000-dan 2003 wlamde peri-
ods moicavs, putini cdilobs aRadginos ruseTis erovnuli sid-
iade stagnaciisa da ngrevis Semdeg. mis azrovnebaSi qveynis Sig-
niT wesrigis damyareba da amiT saxelmwifos gaZliereba mWidrod
aris dakavSirebuli sazRvargareT ruseTisadmi pativiscemis mop-
ovebasTan. sagareo politikas igi xedavs ara mxolod saxelmwi-
fosTvis politikuri Tu ekonomikuri Semosavlebis wyarod (iar-
aRis miyidviT da specialuri savaWro urTierTobebiT CineTTan,
indoeTTan da iranTan), aramed rogorc Tavad rusebSi saxelmwi-
fos mimarT pativiscemis amaRlebis saSualebas. am mizniT igi iy-
enebs sagareo politikas qveynis SigniT politikuri da
ekonomikuri wesrigis dasamyareblad. elcinisgan gansxvavebiT
putinma gazarda sakuTari gavlena da mkacri kontroli daamyara
sagareo politikuri gadawyvetilebebis miRebaze, CamoaqveiTa ra
sagareo saqmeTa saministro politikis iniciatoridan, mis Sem-
sruleblamde.
41
instituciuri da strategiuli konsolidacia
miuxedavad putinis mkacri kontrolisa, sawyis etapze ruse-
Tis gare samyarosTan urTierTobaSi rTuli iyo erTi
gamokveTili strategiis danaxva. nawilobriv aRniSnuli
gaurkvevloba gamowveuli iyo kremlis mier orazrovani poli-
tikis ganzrax gatarebiT da oficialuri dokumentebis bundov-
anebiT. amavdroulad, ruseTis sagareo politika xSirad pasiur,
an saukeTeso SemTxvevaSi reaqciul xasiaTs atarebda. Tumca, saer-
TaSoriso scenaze iniciativebis nakleboba, sulac ar mianiSneb-
da ruseTis sagareo politikaSi strategiuli koncefciis ararse-
bobas. sinamdvileSi, rig SemTxvevebSi, es sawinaaRmdegosac ki mi-
aniSnebda. ruseTis imdroindeli socialuri da ekonomikuri
mdgomareobidan gamomdinare saSinao konsolidaciis politika
da stabilur saerTaSoriso wesrigze aqcentis gakeTeba warmoad-
genda msoflios da masSi ruseTis rolis xedvis nawils.
putinis xedva, qveynis gaZlierebis gziT ruseTis damoukidebel
saerTaSoriso moTamaSed qceva, dafuZnebuli iyo 1990-iani wleb-
is bolodan politikur elitasa da sazogadoebaSi arsebul
umTavres strategiul konsensusze. aRniSnuli konsensusi gulisx-
mobs, rom ruseTi aris `didi saxelmwifo~, Tumca am etapze dasus-
tebuli, interesebiT msoflios mraval regionSi. politikuri
elitis xedviT, ruseTs saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi unda eTa-
maSa realpolitikis mimdevari aSS-s roli, nacvlad liberaliz-
mis mimdevari evrokavSirisa. Sesabamisad, ruseTis sagareo poli-
tika aqcents akeTebda im saxis saerTaSoriso sistemis SenarCuneba-
ze, sadac didi saxelmwifoebi, gaero-s uSiSroebis sabWos saSu-
alebiT warmoadgendnen msoflio wesrigis ZiriTad sayrdenebs.
primakoviT dawyebuli, rusi diplomatebi da politikis Semqm-
nelebi amtkicebdnen, rom civi omis dasrulebis miuxedavad, ruse-
Ti warmoadgens msoflio wesrigis erT-erT dasayrdens, romel-
sac unda gaaCndes damoukidebeli sagareo politika da ara dasav-
leTis umniSvnelo nawils an bunebrivi resursebis mimwodebels.
putini, rogorc am midgomis memkvidre, yovelTvis inarCunebda
manevrirebis Tavisuflebas da arasodes srulad ar aigivebda Tavs
rusul sagareo politikur azrovnebaSi arsebul `zapadnikur~
an `evrazianistul~ tendenciebTan.
aRniSnul periodSi Seqmnili ruseTis oficialuri dokument-
putinis sagareo politikis pirveli faza
42
ebic, gansakuTrebiT sagareo politikisa da erovnuli usafrTx-
oebis koncefciebi, srulad asaxavdnen aRniSnul xedvas samyaro-
sadmi. miuxedavad imisa, rom am dokumentebs arc Tu ise didi praq-
tikuli mniSvneloba gaaCniaT - isini Seiqmnen dapirispirebul
jgufebs Soris vaWrobis Sedegad da xSir SemTxvevaSi maTi inter-
esebis dasakmayofileblad bundovani eniT aris dawerili - es
dokumentebi asaxaven ruseTis erovnul usafrTxoebaze pasux-
ismgebeli pirebis xedvas. putinis mier 2000 wlis dekemberSi miRe-
buli sagareo politikis koncefcia upiratesad aqcents akeTebs
`suverenulobis~ da `didi saxelmwifos~ cnebebze. koncefcia geo-
politikuri eniT aris dawerili da aRwers Zalauflebisa da
erovnuli interesebis dakmayofilebisTvis mebrZoli saxelmwi-
foebisgan Semdgar msoflios
45
. msgavsi ena da xedva warmoudgene-
li iqneboda aSS-is da evrokavSiris oficialur gancxadebebSi.
kidev ufro adre putinis mier damtkicebuli erovnuli usa-
frTxoebis koncefcia mimoixilavs ruseTis sagareo politikis
safuZvelSi Cadebul ideologiur mosazrebebs. igi ganixilavs or
urTierTsawinaaRmdego tendencias, rogorc saerTaSoriso wes-
rigis momavali ganviTarebis ganmsazvrels. erTi mxriv, civi omis
Semdgom samyaroSi arsebul saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi Sein-
iSneba `qveynebis didi raodenobis ekonomikuri da politikuri
poziciebis gaZliereba da maTi integracia saerTaSoriso pro-
cesebis mravalmxrivi marTvis meqanizmis srulyofaSi~. Tumca,
amavdroulad, integraciisa da multipolarulobisken mima-
rTul am tendencias aferxebs `aSS-is liderobiT ganviTarebuli
dasavluri qveynebis mier dominirebaze dafuZnebuli da msof-
lio politikis ZiriTadi problemebis calmxrivi, samxedro-Zal-
adobrivi gziT saerTaSoriso samarTlis fuZemdebluri normeb-
is gverdis avliT gadawyvetaze gaTvlili saerTaSoriso urTier-
TobaTa sistemis Seqmnis mcdelobebi~
46
. ZiriTadad saxelmwifoe-
bsa da Zalauflebaze fokusireba, rwmenasTan erTad, rom msof-
lioSi ruseTis pozicias emuqreba msoflio wesrigis Seqmna, rom-
lidanac igi gamoricxulia, aris is mTavari principebi, romelTa
Tavi meoTxe
45
ruseTis fedraciis sagareo politikis koncefcia http://www.ln.mid.ru/ns-
osndoc.nsf/0e9272befa3420974325 6c630042d1aa/fd86620b371b0cf7432569fb004872a7?Open
Document (accessed August 6, 2008).
46
ruseTis federaciis erovnuli usafrTxoebis koncefcia http://www.scrf.gov
.ru/documents/1.html (accessed August 6, 2008).
43
gamoc msoflio politikis rusul xedvas SegviZlia `geopoli-
tikuri~ vuwodoT. swored es xedva warmoadgens sagareo poli-
tikisadmi rusuli midgomis safuZvels.
aRniSnul xedvas seriozuli gavlena aqvs ruseTis sagareo
politikis warmarTvaze. saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi ruseTi
dRes upiratesobas aniWebs ormxriv urTierTobebs, gansakuTre-
biT iseT qveynebTan, rogorebic aris aSS, CineTi da indoeTi, nacv-
lad mravalmxrivi urTierTobebisa, romlebic saerTo Rirebule-
bebze iqneboda dafuZnebuli. rusuli xedviT ormxrivi urTier-
Tobebi, mravalmxrivisgan gansxvavebiT, saSualebas aZlevs saxelm-
wifoebs Tavi aaridon qcevis SemzRudavi normebis Camoyalibebas
da unarCunebs maT suverenul Tanasworobas. ruseTi aqtiurad
uWers mxars mxolod gaero-s uSiSroebis sabWos an didi rvianis
msgavs saerTaSoriso organizaciebs, romlebic warmoadgenen
`didi saxelmwifoebis~ klubebs da ar zRudaven ruseTis suveren-
itets mis saSinao saqmeebze (maT Soris CeCneTze). igi xSir SemTx-
vevaSi aqtiurad monawileobs iseT organizaciebSi, rogoric aris
euTo, sadac SeuZliaT gadawyvetilebebze gavlenis moxdena da am
gavlenis sakuTari interesebis Sesabamisad gamoyeneba.
sawyis etapze putinisTvis saerTaSoriso scenaze pativiscemisa
da gavlenisTvis brZola niSnavda ekonomikur eqspansias da sta-
bilurobas saxlSi. saxelmwifos gaZlierebis putiniseul poli-
tikas safuZvlad edo 2000-iani wlebis dasawyisis ekonomikuri
eqspansia. energoresursebze gazrdili fasebisgan miRebuli Se-
mosavlebi ixarjeboda iseT strategiul miznebze, rogoric iyo
sagareo valis da Sesabamisad ruseTze sagareo berketis Semcir-
eba da samxedro modernizeba. 2004 wels saxelmwifos mier navTo-
bkompania `iukosis~ aqtivebis xelSi Cagdeba putinis mier dawye-
buli ekonomikuri eqspansiis erT-erT TvalsaCino magaliTs war-
moadgens. energoresursebis sferos monopolizebiT kremlma
uzrunvelyo sruli gavlena navTobisa da gazis eqsportze, xolo
ucxoel investorebis mier `iukosis~ aqtivebis SeZenis dablokviT
mianiSna maT Sors daeWiraT Tavi im sferos xelSi Cagdebis mcde-
lobisgan, romelsac ruseTi strategiulad sasicocxlod ganix-
ilavs.
miuxedavad putinis aqtiuri muSaobisa qveynis SigniT Zalau-
flebis ganmtkicebisas, misi prezidentobis pirvel wlebSi krem-
li uCveulod wynar sagareo politikas atarebda. ruseTi cdi-
putinis sagareo politikis pirveli faza
44
lobda sakuTari interesebis dacvas, gansakuTrebiT yofili sab-
WoTa kavSiris teritoriaze, Tumca, mTlianobaSi aRniSnul peri-
odSi arc erTi seriozuli diplomatiuri proeqtis inicireba ar
mouxdenia da Tavs ikavebda aSS-sTan dapirispirebisgan. aRniSnu-
li politika srulad jdeba gorCakoviseul `koncentrirebis~
politikaSi, romelic wina TavSi iqna ganxiluli. warumateblo-
bisTvis ganwiruli dapirispirebis Tavidan aridebiT, putini cdi-
lobda uzrunvelyo, rom misi saSinao reformirebis proeqti
Seuferxeblad gagrZeldeboda.
47
urTierTobebi aSS-Tan
ruseTis SedarebiT pasiuri sagareo politika gansakuTrebiT
SesamCnevi iyo aSS-Tan mimarTebaSi. vaSingtonTan urTierTobebi
agreTve warmoadgens ruseTis msoflmxedvelobisTvis cen-
tralur saxelmwifoTaSoris ormxrivi urTierTobebis logikis
naTel demonstrirebas. putinis prezidentobis pirvel wlebSi
ruseTi aSS-is xelmZRvanelobis qmedebebs naklebi protestiTa da
muqariT pasuxobda, vidre es elcini-klintonis dros xdeboda,
miuxedavad imisa, rom amisi gacilebiT meti sababi gaaCnda (aSS-is
balistikuri raketebis SezRudvis xelSekrulebidan gamosvla,
amerikuli jarebis ganlageba centralur aziaSi da nato-s ga-
farToeba). aRniSnuli politika dafuZnebuli iyo pragmatul
gaTvlaze - ruseTs im droisTvis vaSingtonze zemoqmedebis nak-
lebi pirdapiri berketi gaaCnda. rogorc ki mas gauCnda SesaZle-
bloba wasuliyo aSS-is gavlenis eqspansiis sawinaaRmdegod - ma-
galiTad 2005 wlis zafxulSi, rodesac pekinTan da taSkentTan
TanamSromlobiT maxerxa uzbekeTidan amerikuli jarebis gayvana
- moskovma ar daayovna.
aRniSnuli midgoma asaxavs moskovis aqcents ormxriv urTier-
Tobebze. aSS-is upiratesobis mosaTokad putinis administracia
ufro metad iyenebda pirdapir garigebebs vaSingtonTan, vidre
mravalerovan organizaciebs. sityvierad rusi liderebi
yovelTvis gmobdnen aSS-is hegemonias, rogorc saxifaTos msof-
lio wesrigisTvis, magram realobaSi Tavs aridebdnen sakiTxebSi
Carevisgan, romelTa Secvlis naklebi Sansi hqondaT. magaliTad
Tavi meoTxe
47
Edward Lucas, Putin In Power in The New Cold War Putins Russia and the Threat to
the West (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), 37-57.
45
gamodgeba ruseTis reaqcia im periodis or umwvaves sakiTxze
rusul-amerikul urTierTobebSi. yofil sabWoTa sivrceSi nato-
s gafarToebis gegmebma ruseTis mxridan mkveTri dapirispireba
gamoiwvia. amas daemata 2002 wels aSS-is mier birTvuli saraketo
Tavdacvis sistemis Seqmnis mizniT balistikuri raketebis
SezRudvis xelSekrulebidan gamosvla. vaSingtonis am nabijis
sapasuxod putinma aSS-sa da evropas Soris ganxeTqilebis Setanis
mcdelobiT upasuxa, wamoayena ra erToblivi evropul-rusuli
saraketo Tavdacvis sistemis idea. aSS-sa da nato-sTan dapiri-
spirebis Ria politika mxolod 2001 wlis lublianas samitze pu-
tinisa da buSis pirveli Sexvedris Semdeg Seicvala. putinma gaac-
nobiera, rom im periodisTvis ruseTi ar flobda aranair realur
berketebs aSS-is gadawyvetilebebze zegavlenis mosaxdenad da
Sesabamisad mouwia nato-s gafarToebasa da amerikis balistikuri
raketebis SezRudvis xelSekrulebidan gamosvlasTan Segueba.
11 seqtembris Tavdasxmebma kidev erTi impulsi misca putins
daemyarebina primakov/elcinis periodis mwvave ritorikisgan
Tavisufali pragmatuli urTierTobebi vaSingtonTan. putini iyo
pirveli ucxoeli lideri, romelic daukavSirda prezident buSs
Tavdasxmebidan ramdenime saaTis Semdeg. ufro metic, buSis Zal-
ismieri pasuxi Tavdasxmebze ruseTSi ganixileboda, rogorc mosk-
ovis mier CrdiloeT kavkasiasa da centralur aziaSi islamuri
radikalizmis winaaRmdeg gatarebuli mkacri politikis gamama-
rTlebeli. CeCneTSi faqtobrivad dausrulebeli omiT damZime-
buli ruseTi mzad iyo dasTanxmeboda, rom `sjobs amerikelebis
yofna uzbekeTSi, vidre Talibebisa TaTreTSi~
48
. ruseTis lider-
ebma daaskvnes, rom gamomdinare 11 seqtembris Tavdasxmis masSta-
bebidan da sakuTari mowyvladobidan islamuri terorizmis mima-
rT (ruseTs hyavs 20 milionze meti muslimi moqalaqe, xolo mis
teritoriaze - CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi aris islamuri terorizmis
erT-erTi yvelaze arastabiluri kera), fundamentalizmis
winaaRmdeg brZolaSi aSS-is mxardaWeris miReba sakmarisi iyo yo-
fili sabWoTa kavSiris sivrceSi misi Zalauflebis eqspansiaze
droebiT Tvalis dasaxuWad. Tumca, umTavres mizezs, ramac gam-
oiwvia aRniSnuli movlenis Semdeg putinis mxridan aSS-s mxardaW-
putinis sagareo politikis pirveli faza
48
interviu politolog gleb pavlovskisTan - Ariel Cohen, Central Asia: The War
Preparations Tempered By Political Indecision, EurasiaNet, October 13, 2001, http://
www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav101301.shtml (accessed August 6, 2008).
46
era, warmoadgens CeCneTis faqtori. kremlma maqsimalurad gam-
oiyena 11 seqtembris teraqti, raTa moexdina CeCneTSi `boevikebis
winaaRmdeg~ sakuTari qmedebebis legitimacia. Talibebis dama-
rcxebisa da CeCneTis sakiTxis aqtualurobis Semcirebis Semdeg,
regionSi amerikelebis CarTulobis zrdiT Sewuxebulma ruseTma
CineTisa da uzbekeTis mTavrobebis daxmarebiT daiwyo
uzbekeTidan da yirgizeTidan amerikuli jarebis gayvanaze zrun-
va.
urTierTobebi evropasTan
evropasTan mimarTebaSi putinis sagareo politikis gansazRvra-
Si yovelTvis ekonomikuri mosazrebebi dominirebda. evropa aris
ruseTis umsxvilesi savaWro partniori da rusuli gazisa da nav-
Tobis umTavresi importiori. Tumca, putini yovelTvis upirate-
sobas aniWebda calkeul evropul, gansakuTrebiT `didi saxelm-
wifos~ statusis matarebel qveynebTan ormxriv urTierTobebs da
ara evrokavSirTan, rogorc erTian organizmTan. prezidento-
bis pirvel wlebSi igi cdilobda maTTan kargi urTierTobebis
SenarCunebas da aranairad ar ewinaaRmdegeboda evrokavSiris ga-
farToebas. mis mTavar mizans warmoadgenda Camoeyalibebina evro-
pa, rogorc umTavresi energetikuli bazari da teqnologiisa da
sagareo investiciebis umTavresi wyaro.
ekonomikur sargebelTan erTad, putini cdilobs ormxrivi
urTierTobebi gaaRrmavos evropul saxelmwifoebTan, raTa
mogvianebiT gamoiyenos isini aSS-ze gavlenis mosaxdenad. mas ar
aqvs iluziebi, rom nato zurgs aqcevs aSS-s balistikuri rakete-
bis SezRudvis xelSekrulebidan gamosvlis gamo, Tumca, igi xe-
davs, rom am nabijma ganxeTqileba gamoiwvia evropaSi da cdilobs
am berketis gamoyenebas ara mxolod amerikelebTan, aramed evro-
pelebTanac. amasTanave ZiriTadi aqcenti ekonomikur iniciative-
bze keTdeba. rusuli biznesis liderebi, romlebic ukve CarTule-
bi arian dasavleTTan savaWro urTierTobebSi, miiCneven, rom
ruseTis momavali evropaSi energoresursebis eqsportSi da dasav-
luri kapitalis mozidvaSi Zevs. isini ewinaaRmdegebian sabWoTa
da antidasavlur poziciebs da cdiloben, mediatoris roli iTa-
maSon rusul saxelmwifosa da dasavleTs Soris. erTi SexedviT
moskovis Zlieri politikuri, ekonomikuri da biznes interesebi
evropaSi (gansakuTrebiT germaniaSi) xels uwyobs ruseTis inte-
Tavi meoTxe
47
gracias dasavlur samyaroSi.
sagareo politika aziaSi
aziaSi, sadac kremlis umTavresi interesis sagans CineTi war-
moadgens, ruseTi sakuTar Tavs, rogorc umTavres regionul `did
saxelmwifos~ xedavs. 1996 wlidan ruseTi da CineTi strategiul
urTierTobebs anviTareben, xolo 2001 wels `kargi mezoblobis,
megobrobisa da TanamSromlobis xelSekrulebac~ ki gaaformes.
droTa ganmavlobaSi CineTi iqca rusuli iaraRis umTavres im-
portiorad. putinis prezidentobis pirvel wlebSi ruseTis sa-
gareo politikis prioritets am regionSi CineTis, indoeTisa da
iranis iaraRis bazrebze adgilis damkvidreba warmoadgens. aRniS-
nuli qveynebis mimarT rusi eqspertebis midgoma ar aris erTiani.
maTi nawili mxars uWers aSS-is gavlenis dasabalanseblad am qvey-
nebTan erTad koaliciis Seqmnaze. isini vinc am `evrazianistul~
pozicias emxrobian (magaliTad `evrazianizmis~ mTavari ideolo-
gi aleqsandr dugini), xedaven ruseTs aRmosavleT naxevarsfer-
oSi antiamerikuli blokis birTvad. isini Ria mxardaWeras ucxa-
deben putins, romelic, maTi azriT, emxroba am `evrazianistul~
xedvas. Tumca, sxvebs miaCniaT, rom putinis mTavari motivacia
naklebad aris ideologiuri da ufro ekonomikasa da geopoli-
tikas efuZneba. maTi azriT, igi mxolod ekonomikur sargebelsa
da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi damatebiTi berketebis mopove-
bas cdilobs, rasac am qveynebTan `specialuri~ urTierTobebi
iZleva.
yvelaze ufro saintereso aris ruseTis urTierTobebi CineT-
Tan. rusebis midgoma CineTisadmi yovelTvis orazrovani iyo. mi-
uxedavad CineTTan megobrobis xelSekrulebis gaformebisa, ruse-
bis umetesoba SeSfoTebas gamoTqvamda misi ekonomikuri da
samxedro Zalauflebis zrdis gamo. rusebs gansakuTrebiT aS-
foTebdaT CineTis uari xelSekulebaSi sazRvrebis sabolood gan-
sazRvris Sesaxeb punqtis Cadebaze. isini ukmayofilebas gamoTq-
vamdnen ruseTis teritoriaze metwilad CinelebiT dasaxlebuli
soflebis arsebobis gamo da aprotestebdnen CineTis saelCos
TanamSromlebis mier Cineli biznesmenebis saqmianobis koor-
dinirebas.
49
putinis sagareo politikis pirveli faza
49
putinis politikaze centralur aziaSi damatebiT ixileT - Lena Jonson, Vladimir
Putin and Central Asia the Shaping of Russian Foreign Policy, (I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2006).
48
daskvna
vladimir putinis prezidentobis pirvel wlebSi, mis mier ga-
tarebuli sagareo politikas SegviZlia `koncentrirebis~ poli-
tika vuwodoT. putini, sakuTari sagareo politikis pirvel fa-
zaSi, romelsac 2000-dan 2003 wlamde periodi mivakuTvneT, cdi-
lobs, Tavi aaridos dasavleTTan mkveTr da marcxisTvis ganwir-
ul dapirispirebas, ris gamoc rig mniSvnelovan sakiTxebze Tva-
lis daxuWvac ki uwevs. aRniSnul periodSi ruseTis axali xelisu-
fleba cdilobs Zalauflebis konsolidacias da qveynis
ekonomikur reabilitacias. aqtiurad mimdinareobs elcinis
droindeli oligarqebis gavlenis Sesusteba, ekonomikis strate-
giuli seqtorebis renacionalizacia da `Zalauflebis vertika-
lis~ mSenebloba. ruseTi cdilobs evropisa da aziis iaraRisa da
bunebrivi resursebis bazrebze eqspansias. saerTaSoriso urTier-
TobebSi putini upiratesobas aniWebs ormxrivi urTierTiobebis
gaRrmavebas, gansakuTrebiT CineTTan, indoeTTan, iranTan, ger-
maniasTan, italiasTan da safrangeTTan. mogvianebiT swored aRniS-
nuli qveynebi gaxdebian misi uaxloesi mokavSireebi saerTaSoriso
asparezze aSS-sTan dapirispirebisas. am fazaSi ruseTis politi-
ka dsT-sTan mimarTebaSi SedarebiT pasiuria da ufro reaqciul
xasiaTs atarebs. ruseTi jer ar aris mzad saerTaSoriso batalie-
bisTvis. ruseTi emzadeba. ruseTi `koncentrirebas axdens~.
Tavi meoTxe
Tavi mexuTe
putinis sagareo politikis
meore faza 2003-2006
`liberaluri imperia~ da
`energetikuli xelketi~
prezidentobis periodSi putini umTavresi sagareo poli-
tikuri gamowvevebis winaSe 2003-04 wlebSi dadga. erayis krizisisa
da saqarTvelosa da ukrainaSi `feradi revoluciebis~ Semdeg,
ruseTis sagareo politika Seicvala da qveyanam, `koncentrireb-
is~ politikis Semdeg saerTaSoriso asparezze aqtiuri qmedebebi
daiwyo. Tumca, axali midgomis safuZvels aRar warmoadgenda `sa-
bWoTa meTodebi~ - samxedro upiratesobis ganmtkiceba da `axlo
samezobloSi~ samxedro Zalis ganTavseba. ruseTis axali iaraRi
ekonomika, umTavresad ki energoresursebi gaxda. ruseTis sagar-
eo politikis meore fazis, romelSic 2003 wlidan 2006 wlamde
periodi Sedis, strategiul miznad iqca yofil sabWoTa terito-
riaze ekonomikuri eqspansia da am gziT maTze gavlenis mopoveba.
2003 wlidan ruseTis sagareo politikas saukeTesod asaxavs ana-
toli Cubaisis
50
mier Camoyalibebuli `liberaluri imperiis~ Teo-
ria.
`liberaluri imperiis~ Teoria Cubaisma pirvelad 2003 wlis
oqtomberSi gaaxmovana
51
. misi gancxadebiT `1991 wels arseboba Sew-
yvita msoflios yvela drois udidesma imperiam~. ruseTma unda
aaSenos axali `liberaluri imperia~ yofili sabWoTa kavSiris
namsxvrevebisgan. amisTvis ruseTma unda moaxdinos Tavis samezob-
loSi rusuli kulturis popularizacia da rusulenovani mosax-
leobis usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa, daikavos dominanti pozi-
50
rusuli eleqtroenergiis monopolistis, "rao ees~-is xelmZRvaneli.
51
, I , , October 1,
2003, http://www.ng.ru/ideas/2003-10-01/1_mission.html (accessed August 6, 2008).
50
cia misi mezoblebis vaWrobasa da biznesSi (`aqtivebis SeZenasa da
ganviTarebaSi~) da uzrunvelyos maTi `damoukidebloba da
demokratia~. Cubaisis mosazrebiT `mxolod am gziT SeZlebs ruse-
Ti aSS-is, evrokavSirisa da iaponiis gverdiT, didi demokratieb-
is wreSi sakuTari bunebrivi adgilis dakavebas~.
`gazpromis~ roli
`liberaluri imperiis~ TeoriaSi, rogorc ukve aRvniSneT
umTavresi adgili konomikur eqspansias, maT Soris upiratesad
energoresursebis gamoyenebas uWiravs. ekonomikuri eqspansiis
umTavresi iaraRi, romelsac putini misi sagareo politikis am
fazis dros iyenebda, iyo saxelmwifos mflobelobaSi myofi gazis
monopolia `gazpromi~. putinis mier 2003 wels damtkicebuli
ruseTis energetikis strategia energetikul politikas qveynis
diplomatiis safuZvlad aqcevs. kremlis mosazrebiT bunebrivi
resursebis industria unda gamoiyenebodes ruseTis geopoli-
tikuri poziciebis gasaZliereblad. praqtikaSi es oTx nabijs
moicavs:
1. kremlma ar unda dauSvas evropuli qveynebis mier energet-
ikuli, gansakuTrebiT bunebrivi airis mowodebis wyaroeb-
is diversifikacia;
2. rusulma energokompaniebma unda gaaZlieron kontroli
gazis saerTaSoriso bazarze;
3. maT unda gaakontrolon dasavleTSi gazis miwodebis jaWvis
yvela rgoli- dawyebuli resursebis mompovebeli kompanie-
biT ruseTSi (romlebis nacionalizaciac kremlma pirvel
fazaSi moaxdina), aRmosavleT evropasa da dsT-is qveynebSi
satransporto derefnebis da evropaSi sadistribucio ko-
mpaniebisa da gazis sacavebis aqtivebiT damTavrebuli;
4. kremlma unda gamoiyenos es aqtivebi politikuri zewolis
iaraRad
52
.
yofili sabWoTa kavSiris qveynebSi sakuTari milsadenebis
sistemis gafarToebasa da evropaSi samomxmareblo bazrebze wilis
zrdis garda, `gazpromi~ cdilobs axlo da Soreuli aRmosavle-
Tis, samxreT amerikisa da afrikis bazrebze Sesvlasac. miuxeda-
vad am globaluri eqspansiis strategiisa, `gazpromma~ sakuTari
52
Edward Lucas, The New Cold War: Putins Russia and the Threat to the West (Palgrave
Macmillan, 2008).
Tavi mexuTe
51
Zalisxmevis fokusireba mis umTavres samomxmareblo bazarze -
evropaze da umTavres satransporto derefanze - dsT-sa da aR-
mosavleT evropaze moaxdina. evrokavSiri gazis moxmarebis 60%-
s importiT faravs, romlidanac TiTqmis naxevari ruseTze mo-
dis. Sesabamisad, ruseTi uzrunvelyofs evropis 25%-ze metis
gaziT momaragebas. kremlma aqtiurad daiwyo evropis energet-
ikul bazrebze Sesvla ara marto bunebrivi airis miwodebis zrdiT,
aramed strategiuli aqtivebis SeZenaSi monawileobiTac. aRniS-
nuls xeli Seuwyo evrokavSiris bunebrivi airis bazris liberal-
izaciamac. `gazpromma~ miznad daisaxa resursebis miwodebis garda
mis saboloo momxmareblamde mitanaSic mieRo monawileoba. evro-
pasa da dsT-Si `gazpromi~ cdilobs ubralo investoridan, iqces
energokompaniebis aqciaTa sakontrolo paketis mflobelad, rac
mas saSualebas miscems SeinarCunos, rogorc gavlena da kontro-
li satranzito gzebze, aseve uzrunvelyos samomxmareblo moTx-
ovna mis produqtze.
faruli gavlenis SenarCunebis mizniT `gazpromi~ uzarmazar
Zalisxmevas debs ofSoruli kompaniebis saSualebiT sakuTari kva-
lis dafarvaSi, ris gamoc rTulia sazRvargareT misi saqmiano-
bis sruli suraTis daxatva. garda amisa, mis investiciebs xSirad
Tan axlavs politikuri protestebi, rogorc es saqarTveloSi
magistraluri milsadenis an britaneTSi gazis gamanawilebeli
kompaniis SeZenis mcdelobebisas iyo. miuxedavad amisa, dReisTvis
cnobilia, rom `gazpromi~ flobs aqtivebs evrokavSiris 27 qvey-
nidan minimum 16-Si.
evrokavSirma araerTxel gamoxata SeSfoTeba rusul gazze
damokidebulebis gamo. miuxadavad oficialuri SezRudvebis
ararsebobisa, evrokavSiris qveynebisTvis rekomendebulia, rom
bunebrivi airis erT momwodebelze damokidebuleba ar unda
aRematebodes 30%-s. rogorc cxrilidan Cans, evropuli qveyneb-
is umetesobis damokidebuleba am zRvars gacilebiT aWarbebs. Se-
sabamisad, evropa cdilobs moaxdinos gazis wyaroebis diversi-
fikacia, risTvisac lobirebs milsadenebs CrdiloeT afrikidan
53
,
53
umTavres momwodeblad ganixileba alJiri, romelTanac ruseTi aqtiurad
cdilobs kavSirebis damyarebas, raTa ar dauSvas misi monawileoba evropul ba-
zarze
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza
52
nabukos milsadens
54
da Txevadi bunebrivi airis terminalebis
mSeneblobas.
putinis erT-erT umTavres sagareo politikur miRwevas war-
moadgens xelis SeSla evrokavSirisTvis rusul gazze damokide-
bulebis gamo arsebuli SeSfoTebis realur erTian energetikul
politikaSi transformirebisTvis. aRniSnul mizans man uZvelesi
`dayavi da ibatone~-s principis gamoyenebiT miaRwia. erTian evro-
pasTan ekonomikuri urTierTobebis nacvlad ruseTi amjobinebs
saqme daiWiros calkeul saxelmwifoebTan. evrokavSiris qveyneb-
54
proeqti "nabuko"iTvaliswinebs weliwadSi 31 miliardi kuburi metri airis
gamtarobis gazsadenis mSeneblobas, romelic kaspiis zRvas azerbaijanis,
saqarTvelos, TurqeTis, bulgareTis, ungreTis, rumineTisa da avstriis gav-
liT evropasTan daakavSirebs. gazsadeni ZiriTadad daitvirTeba bunebrivi air-
iT Sah-denizis sabadodan, Tumca gamoricxuli ar aris misi Sevseba Turqmenuli
da yazaxuri resursebiTac.
55
"gazpromis"wliuri angariSi, 2006 weli.
Tavi mexuTe
53
is umetesobis (magaliTad, germaniisa da italiis) lider ener-
gokompaniebs specialuri SeTanxmebebi akavSirebT rusul `gaz-
promTan~. aRniSnuli midgomis warmatebulobas adasturebs ruse-
Tis mier mxardaWerili `CrdiloeTis nakadis~ da `samxreTis naka-
dis~ proeqtebi.
milsadeni saxelwodebiT `CrdiloeTis nakadi~ SesaZlebeli
gaxda evropis uaxloes istoriaSi erT-erTi yvelaze RirsSesani-
Snavi aliansis Sedegad - gerhard Srioderis
56
germaniasa da pu-
tinis ruseTs Soris. aRniSnuli aliansi warmoadgens ruseTis mxri-
dan saxelmwifoTaSoris ormxriv urTierTobebze da `dayavi da
ibatone~-s politikaze aqcentis gakeTebis naTel ilustracias.
Srioderis mTavrobisa da piradad kancleris `specialuri~ urT-
ierTobebi putinTan da Tanamdebobis datovebis Semdeg `Crdilo-
eTis nakadis~ konsorciumis direqtorTa sabWos Tavmjdomared
misi daniSvna mravali miTqma-moTqmis safuZveli gaxda, Tumca,
faqtia, rom swored am ori politikosis mWidro urTierTobebma
gaxada SesaZlebeli aRmosavleT da CrdiloeT evropis qveynebis
umetesobis winaaRmdegobis gadalaxva da 51%-iT gazpromis mflo-
belobaSi myofi gazsadenis mSeneblobis dawyeba. 6 miliard evrod
Sefasebuli gazsadenis mSenebloba, romelic baltiis zRvis gav-
liT ruseTs germaniasTan daakavSirebs, savaraudod 2010 wels
56
germaniis kancleri 1998-2005 ww.
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza
54
dasruldeba. igegmeba ori paraleluri milsadenis gayvana,
romelTaganac TiToeuls weliwadSi 28 miliardi kuburi metri
bunebrivi airis gatareba SeeZleba.
milsaden `samxreTis nakadis~ mSenebloba putinis kidev erT
axlo megobar, italiis premier-ministr silvio berluskonis
57
saxels ukavSirdeba. swored am ori politikosis `specialurma~
urTierTobebma gaxada realuri aRniSnuli gazsadenis mSeneblo-
ba. 2006 wlis ivnisis bolos `gazpromma~ da italiurma `ENI~ xeli
moaweres memorandums weliwadSi 30 miliardi kuburi metri gazis
gamtarobis gazsadenis `samxreTis nakadis~ mSeneblobis Sesaxeb,
romelic ruseTs Savi zRvis gavliT bulgareTTan daakavSirebs.
bulgareTSi `samxreTis nakadi~ gaiyofa or ganStoebad, romelT-
agan erTi rumineTis teritoriis gavliT ungreTsa da avstrias
SeuerTdeba, xolo meore _ saberZneTis gavliT italiis samxreTs
daukavSirdeba. axali gazsadenis aSenebis SemTxvevaSi `gazpromi~
evropaSi sididiT mesame, italiis bazarze Seva.
gazsadenebis `CrdiloeTis nakadisa~ da `samxreTis nakadis~
amoqmedebiT `gazpromi~ uzrunvelhyofs evropaSi gazis miwodeb-
is usafrTxoebas (magaliTad politikurad arastabilur ukrain-
aze gazis tranzitis 50%-iT SemcirebiT) da amavdroulad
araefeqtians gaxdis evrokavSiris mier lobirebul `nabukos~
gazsadenis proeqts. miuxedavad proeqtebis teqnikuri sirTulee-
bisa, maTi momgebianoba kremlisTvis aSkara aris - amJamad arsebu-
li ori gazsadeni
58
, romlebiTac ruseTi germanias amaragebs mosk-
ovs satranzito qveynebis, belorusiisa da ukrainis keTili nebis
mZevlad aqcevs. am problemis naTeli magaliTi iyo 2006 wlis
dasawyisSi momxdari rusul-ukrainuli gazis krizisi, rodesac
ruseTma fasze SeuTanxmeblobis sababiT bunebrivi airis miwode-
ba Seuwyvita sakuTar mezobels, Tumca aman asaxva hpova evropazec.
garda imisa, rom evropelebs sagrZnoblad SeumcirdaT gaziT
momarageba, gaCnda kiTxva ruseTis - rogorc momwodeblis san-
doobis Sesaxeb. aRniSnulma faqtma didi ziani miayena ruseTis
imijs. garda amisa, ukrainisTvis mogvianebiT miwodebis aRdgenam
aCvena, rom ruseTi aranakleb aris damokidebuli rogorc satran-
zito qveynebze, aseve saboloo momxmareblebze. 2006 wlisTvis `gaz-
57
italiis premier ministri 2001-06 ww. da 2008 wlidan dRemde.
58
pirveli belorusiasa da poloneTze, xolo meore ukraina, slovakeTsa da
CexeTze gadis.
Tavi mexuTe
55
promis~ mier eqsportirebuli gazis 70% xom swored evropis qvey-
nebs miewodeboda. axali gazsadenebi saSualebas miscems kremls
Tavi aaridos msgavs problemebs da gauTiSos gazi problematur
qveynebs sxvebisTvis zianis miuyeneblad. garda amisa, gazze dam-
yarebul diplomatias erTi upiratesobac aqvs - ruseTs realo-
baSi aranairi praqtikuli nabijis gadadgma aRar uwevs. ukve imis
codna rom ruseTs SeuZlia gadaketos gazi rodesac dasWirdeba,
zrdis mis politikur da ekonomikur berkets.
59
garda milsadenebis qselis gafarToebisa, 2006 wels `gazprom-
ma~ ramdenime mniSvnelovani xelSekrulebac gaaforma, romlebic
saSualebas miscemen mas momavalSic darCes evropisTvis umTavres
gazis mimwodeblad:
xelSekruleba gaaforma strategiul partniorobaze ital-
iuri `ENI~-sTan, romlis mixedviTac 2007 wlidan `gazpromi~
uflebas miiRebs evropaSi sididiT mesame, italiis ba-
zrisTvis gazis pirdapir miwodebaze, xolo `ENI~, `gaz-
promTan~ erTad monawileobas miiRebs ruseTis navTobis
sferoSi aqtivebis SeZenaSi. `gazpromis~ mier italiisTvis
miwodebuli gazis moculoba 2010 wlamde etapobrivad 3
miliardi kuburi metriT gaizrdeba. xelSekruleba agreTve
iTvaliswinebs ruseTis mier italiisTvis gazis miwodebaze
moqmedi kontraqtebis 2035 wlamde gagrZelebas;
kontraqti gaaforma frangul `Gaz de France~-Tan, romlis
mixedviTac franguli kompania weliwadSi 12 miliard kubur
metrs gazs miiRebs, aqedan 4 miliardze xelSekruleba 2012
wlamde aris gaformebuli, xolo 8 miliardze - 2015-mde;
15 wliT, 2035 wlamde xelSekruleba gaagrZela germanul
`E.ON Rurghas~-Tan, romliTac igi weliwadSi 20 miliard
kubur metr airs miiRebs;
2027 wlamde gaagrZela xelSekruleba avstriul `OMV~-
sTan, romlis mixedviTac avstria weliwadSi 7 miliard
kubur metr airs miiRebs;
urTierTobebi yofil sabWoTa qveynebTan
2003-05 wlebis `feradma~ revoluciebma saqarTveloSi, ukrain-
asa da yirgizeTSi xazi gausva ruseTis warumatebel midgomas sak-
59
Edward Lucas, Pipeline Politics in The New Cold War Putins Russia and the Threat
to the West (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), 163-189.
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza
56
uTar mezoblebTan. samive SemTxvevaSi xalxma mSvidobiani gziT
Secvala korumpirebuli da avtoritaruli reJimebi. ruseTma am
gamowvevas postsabWoTa sivrceSi moqmedebis taqtikis SecvliT
upasuxa, ramac misTvis sasurveli Sedegebi gamoiRo. putinma yo-
fil sabWoTa qveynebTanac igive midgoma gamoiyena rac evropasTan
- man sagareo politikaSi ekonomikis roli gaaZliera. mezobleb-
is e.w. `safulis~ politikis saSualebiT ekonomikuri reintegraci-
is mcdeloba yvelaze kargad somxeTis magaliTze sCans, sadac
rusuli kompaniebi floben yvela metnaklebad Rirebul aqtivs.
`feradi~ revoluciebis Semdeg yofili sabWoTa qveynebis mimarT
gatarebuli politika warmoadgens Cubaisis mier SemoTavazebu-
li `liberaluri imperiis~ politikis gagrZelebas. prezidentis
mimarT loialuri oligarqebis meSveobiT kremlma Seqmna alian-
si romelSic Sedian ruseTis umsxvilesi kompaniebi - `gazpromi~,
`rosnefti~, `lukoili~, `rao eesi~, `rusali~ da a.S. alianss uax-
loes momavalSi SesaZlebloba eqneba gaakontrolos energetikis
seqtori ruseTis mezoblebis umetesobaSi.
situaciis kremlis sasargeblod Semotrialebas orma mniS-
vnelovanma faqtormac Seuwyo xeli: 1. evroatlantikurma Tan-
amegobrobam, aSS-sa da ramdenime aRmosavleT evropuli qveynis
gamoklebiT, SeaCera sakuTari swrafva aRmosavleTisken. evrokav-
Sirisa da nato-s gafarToebis mada Semcirda, axali wevrebisgan
miRebuli imedgacruebis zrdis fonze; 2. ruseTis Zala, ZiriTadad
energoresursebze fasebis zrdis xarjze ekonomikuri ganviTare-
bis gamo, gacilebiT gaizarda.
pirveli Sedegebi centraluri aziidan movida. uzbekeTis diq-
tatori prezidenti islam karimovi, romelic manamde aSS-Tan
politikur TamaSs TamaSobda, dRes ukve putinis erT-erTi uax-
loesi mokavSirea. karimovma daafasa ruseTis daxmareba opozici-
is SeviwroebaSi da dasavleTTan misi reJimis dacva uzbekeTSi
gauaresebuli adamianis uflebaTa mdgomareobis gamo. garda
amisa, umsxvilesma uzbekurma kompaniebma grZelvadiani Tanam-
Sromlobis xelSekrulebebi gaaformes uzbekuri gazis sabadoeb-
is erTobliv aTvisebaze rusul `gazpromTan~ da `lukoilTan~.
60
dasavleTma agreTve gavlena dakarga yazaxeTSic, romelic
60
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Uzbekistan in
The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New
York: Routledge, 2008), 196-202.
Tavi mexuTe
57
korufciis maRali donis miuxedavad erT-erTi yvelaze ganvi-
Tarebuli qveyana aris centralur aziaSi. yazaxeTis sagareo
politika zedmetad frTxilia da asaxavs misi prezidentis Sida
prioritetebs - ekonomikur zrdas da ganaTlebas. yazaxeTisTvis
kremlis gavlenis zrdis aSkara kontr-strategia iqneboda gazisa
da navTobis eqsportirebis alternatiuli gzebis Zieba, rac
yovelTvis gaRizianebas iwvevda rusebSi. nursulTan nazarbaevis
reJimi mtkice kavSirebs abams CineTTan da dasavleTTan, Tumca
amas moskovTan urTierTobebis xarjze ar akeTebs. rukaze daxed-
vac sakmarisia imis dasanaxad Tu ratom - ruseT-yazaxeTis sazR-
vari yvelaze grZeli saxmeleTo sazRvaria msoflioSi. garda
amisa yazaxeTis mosaxleobis daaxloebiT erTi mesamedi eTnikuri
rusia. 2002 wels, satranzito damokidebulebam aiZula yazaxeTs
xeli moewera yazaxuri bunebrivi airisa da navTobis ruseTis gav-
liT transportirebis grZelvadian xelSekrulebebze. miuxeda-
vad amisa yazaxeTma mainc gamoTqva baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTob-
sadenze mierTebis survili.
61
ruseTis `safulis~ politika yvelaze metad amarTlebs didi
valis mqone saxelmwifoebSi. kremlis Zalaufleba yvelaze didia
tajikeTSi, siRaribisgan dauZlurebul `narkosaxelmwifoSi~,
romelic srulad ruseTze aris damokidebuli finansuri da
samxedro gadarCenisTvis. swored rusulma jarebma uzrunvely-
ves amJamindeli prezidentis emomali raxmonovis gamarjveba 1997
wels dasrulebul xuTwlian samoqalaqo omSi. ruseTSi aralega-
lurad momuSave naTesavebisgan miRebuli Semosavlebi TiTqmis
erTaderT saarsebo wyaros warmoadgens am qveynis mosaxleo-
bisTvis. ruseTi gazis warmoebaze kontraqtebis saSualebiT TiTq-
mis srulad akontrolebs tajikeTs. es qveyana didad aris damok-
idebuli sakuTari resursebis mosapoveblad saWiro rusul te-
qnologiebsa da dafinansebaze. garda amisa `rao eesma~ araerTi
aqtivi Caigdo tajikeTSi am qveynis valis Camoweris sanacvlod.
62
yirgizeTi sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg qveynis lider askar
akaevis xelmZRvanelobiT garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi pro-
61
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Kazakhstan in
The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New
York: Routledge, 2008), 175-182.
62
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Tajikistan in
The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New
York: Routledge, 2008), 188-196.
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza
58
dasavlur da idealistur Rirebulebebs epotineboda. Tumca 2005
wlisTvis, rodesac qveyanaSi e.w. `titebis revolucia~ moxda, yir-
gizeTi korufciasa da diqtaturaSi iyo Cafluli. samwuxarod
yirgizeTi, iseve rogorc ukraina cvlilebebisTvis mzad ar aR-
moCnda. dRes axalma xelisuflebam ver moaxerxa myari urTier-
Tobebis ageba verc ruseTTan da verc aSS-sTan, romelTa aviaba-
zebsac igi maspinZlobs. yirgizeTi, iseve rogorc tajikeTi mow-
yvladia ruseTis `safulis~ politikis mimarT, am qveynis mimarT
dagrovili didi davalianebis gamo. qveyana valebis gastumrebas
ZiriTadad msxvili sawarmoebis daTmobiT cdilobda: 2001 wels
yirgizeTma ruseTs 27 umsxvilesi sawarmos wilebi mihyida, 2003
wels SeTanxmeba gaformda ramdenime samxedro qarxnis gadace-
maze, 2004 wels `rao eesma~ ufleba miiRo ori hidroeleqtrosad-
guris mSeneblobis dasrulebaze, xolo 2004 wels ruseTis sagar-
eo saqmeTa ministrma sergei lavrovma gadasca yirgizeTis xelisu-
flebas im sawarmoTa sia, romelTa sanacvlodac ruseTi valis
Semcirebas dasTanxmdeboda.
63
regionSi yvelaze idumalebiT moculi qveyana dRes udavod
TurqmeneTia.
64
qveyana, romelsac yofil sabWoTa qveynebSi ruse-
Tis Semdeg sididiT meore gazis maragebi aqvs, 15 wlis ganmavlo-
baSi erT-erTi yvelaze odiozuri diqtatoris - safarmurat nia-
zovis mier imarTeboda. misi gardacvalebis Semdeg mosulma gur-
banguli berdimuxamedovma gaauqma niazovis droindeli SezRud-
vebis nawili, Tumca aman qveynis izolacionisturi midgomis da-
susteba gamoiwvia da dRes ukve qveyanaSi ruseTis gavlenis zrda
SeiniSneba.
65
msxvil rusul kompaniebs didi moculobis investiciebi aqvT
ukrainaSic, gansakuTrebiT am qveynis bunebrivi resursebis mop-
ovebis sferoSic. garda amisa ukraina didad aris damokidebuli
63
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Kyrgyztan in
The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New
York: Routledge, 2008), 182-188.
64
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Turkmenistan
in The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New
York: Routledge, 2008), 202-207.
65
centraluri aziis qveynebTan mimarTebaSi vladimir putinis sagareo poli-
tikis Sesaxeb damatebiTi informacisTvis ixileT Lena Jonson, Vladimir Putin and
Central Asia the Shaping of Russian Foreign Policy, (I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2006) da Bertil
Nygren, Russia and the Asian regional sub-complex in The Rebuilding of Greater Russia
Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New York: Routledge, 2008), 161-207.
Tavi mexuTe
59
rusul bunebriv airze da sakmaod soliduri davalianebac gaaC-
nia kremlis mimarT. swored bunebriv airze davalianeba da misi
fasi gamoiyena kremlma sababad 2006 wlis `gazis omis~ dros, rode-
sac ukrainas Sua zamTarSi momarageba Seuwyvita. ruseTis am nabij-
ma ar gaamarTla - ukrainam gazis miReba tranzitisTvis gamoyo-
fili moculobidan daiwyo, ramac evropa daazarala. ruseTi iZu-
lebuli gaxda daTmobaze wasuliyo da ganaaxla miwodeba. Tumca,
gazsaden `CrdiloeTis nakadis~ warmatebiT dasruleba Seamcir-
ebs ruseTis damokidebulebas ukrainul tranzitze da saSuale-
bas miscems mas ufro efeqturad gamoiyenos `energetikuli xe-
lketi~ am qveynis xelisuflebaze zewolisas.
66
belorusiasTan urTierTobebi, romelic kremlis uaxloesi
mokavSire aris, 1990-iani wlebidan erTiani kavSiris Seqmnaze iyo
koncentrirebuli. miuxedavad belorusiis prezidentis aleqsan-
dr lukaSenkos mcdelobebisa, aRniSnuli kavSiri ver Sedga ise,
rogorc es mas surda. putinis mosvla kidev ufro uaresi aRmoCn-
da lukaSenkosTvis. putinma uaryo kavSiris Tanasworobis safuZ-
velze Seqmnis idea da ganacxada, rom politikuramde saWiro iyo
ekonomikuri integracia. aRniSnuli gziT wasvlis SemTxvevaSi
ruseTis ekonomika ubralod `Caylapavda~ belorusiisas. dsT-Si
momxdarma `feradma revoluciebma~ erT mxareze daayena putini
da lukaSenko, Tumca, aman xeli ar SuSala ruseTs gaeZvirebina
gazis fasi belorusiisTvis. 2007 wels lukaSenko iZulebuli gax-
da daeTmo `gazpromisTvis~ nacionaluri energokompaniis `bel-
transgazis~ aqciaTa naxevari 2.5 miliard dolarad. sanacvlod
`gazpromma~ gaoTxmagebis magivrad `mxolod~ gauormaga beloru-
sias bunebrivi airis fasi.
67
gansxvavebiT moldaveTis mimarT elcinis politikisgan, romel-
ic am qveyanas met-naklebad ignorirebas ukeTebda da erTxelac
ki ar Casula iq, putini 2001 wlidanve mxars uWerda moldaveTis
amJamindel xelisuflebas prezident vladimir voroninis xe-
lmZRvanelobiT. Sedegad, miuxedavad ruseTis mier dnestri-
spireTSi separatistebis mxardaWerisa, urTierTobebi ukanasknel
66
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Ukraine in The
Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New York:
Routledge, 2008), 196-202.
67
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Belarus in The
Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New York:
Routledge, 2008), 66-82.
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza
60
periodamde sakmaod normalurad viTardeboda. moldaveTSi
dasavleTis politikuri marcxis mizezi Tavad qveynis poli-
tikuri da ekonomikuri sisuste aris. qveyanaSi, romlis mTavro-
bis arc erTma wevrma inglisuric ki ar icis, sagareo politikaSi
evroatlantikuri arCevani TiTqmis arasodes ar ganixileboda.
rumineTi, romelic moldaveTisTvis xidi unda yofiliyo evro-
paSi, moiazreba rogorc araprognozirebadi da Sovinisturi sa-
frTxe. qveynis ekonomika ZiriTadad damokidebulia iseT dabal
Semosavlian produqtebze, rogorebic aris gadaumuSavebeli xili
da iaffasiani Rvino, romlis eqsportirebac ZiriTadad ruseTSi
xdeba. aRniSnuli mowyvlads xdis moldaveTs ruseTis mimarT. 2006
wels, rogorc ki moskovma moldaveTis xelisuflebis mxridan
dasavleTTan daaxloebis mcdeloba SeniSna, man dasjis mizniT
embargo dauwesa moldavur Rvinoebs da soflis meurneobis
produqcias, riTac didi dartyma miayena qveynis ekonomikas. garda
amisa, moskovs gavlena aqvs separatistul reJimze dnestrispireT-
Si, rac moldaveTis xelisuflebis evroatlantikur miswrafebe-
bze zemoqmedebis kidev erT berkets warmoadgens. Sedegad ram-
denime dnestripiruli paikis gawirviT kremli sabWoTa kavSiris
daSlis Semdeg pirvelad SeZlebs mTeli saxelmwifos sakuTar
orbitaSi dabrunebas.
68
kavkasiaSi yvelaze mowyvladi da rusul energoimportze yve-
laze metad damokidebuli somxeTi aris. rusuli kompaniebi
floben yvela met-naklebad Rirebul aqtivs am respublikaSi, rac
mas srulad damokidebuls xdis kremlze. garda amisa, sxva qvey-
nebisgan gansxvavebiT rusuli kompaniebi Riad axdenen eqspansias
somxur ekonomikaSi, rac saSualebas gvaZlevs mimovixiloT `lib-
eraluri imperiis~ mSeneblobis erT-erTi yvelaze naTeli magal-
iTi - dReisTvis somxeTSi sul 800-mde kompania moqmedebs rusuli
kapitaliT:
2002 wlidan `gazpromi~ flobs somxeTis udides, razdanis
Tboeleqtrosadgurs, romelic qveynisTvis saWiro
eleqtroenergiis 30%-s gamoimuSavebs da warmoadgens am
qveyanaSi gazis erTaderT mimwodebels;
68
damatebiTi informacisTvis ixileT Graeme P Herd, Russias Transdniestria
Policy: Means, Ends and Great Power Trajectories in Russia Re-emerging Great Power,
ed.Roger E. Kanet (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), 81-107 da Bertil Nygren, Russia and Moldova
in The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New
York: Routledge, 2008), 82-101.
Tavi mexuTe
61
2002 wlidan rusuli saxelmwifo kompania `rao eesi~ flobs
sevan-razdanis hidroeleqtrosadgurebis kaskads da ato-
muri eleqtrosadgur `mecamors~, romelic qveynisTvis
saWiro eleqtroenergiis kidev 40%-s gamoimuSavebs;
2003 wlis ianvridan `rusali~, rusuli aluminisa da Senad-
nobebis mwarmoebeli kompania, romelic sididiT msoflios
sameulSi Sedis, srulad akontrolebs qarxana `armenals;
2003 wlis aprilidan rusuli aviakompania `sibiri~ flobs
somxuri `armavias~ 70%-s da uzrunvelyofs somxeTis mgza-
vrTa erTi mesamedis momsaxurebas;
2004 wlis ianvarSi $93.76 milioni valis dafarvis sanacv-
lod somxurma mxarem ruseTs sabWoTa kavSiris droindeli
samxedro-samrewvelo kompleqsis oTxi sawarmo gadasca;
2004 wlis martSi ruseTis erT-erTma umsxvilesma bankma
`vneStorgbankma~ Seisyida somxeTis sididiT meore bankis
`armsberbank~-is aqciaTa 70%, riTac rusuli kapitalis
moculoba somxeTis sabanko sistemaSi 25%-mde gaizarda;
2006 wlis agvistoSi ruseTSi erT-erTi umsxvilesi kavSir-
gabmulobis operatorma `komstarma~ SeiZina somxeTSi si-
didiT meore satelekomunikacio jgufi `kolnetis~ aqcia-
Ta 75%;
2006 wlis seqtembridan `rao eesi~, kompania `somxeTis eleqt-
roqselebis~ mflobeli gaxda;
2006 wlis noemberSi, ruseTSi yvelaze didma fiWuri kavSir-
gabmulobis kompaniam `vimpelkomma~ somxeTis fiWuri kav-
Sirgabmulobis bazris 40%-is mflobeli kompania `arment-
elis~ aqciaTa 90% Seisyida.
aRsaniSnavia, rom erTaderTi gazsadeni, saidanac somxeTi bune-
briv airs iRebs da erTaderTi derefani, romlis gavliTac somx-
uri tvirTi da mgzavrebi ruseTSi Sedian, saqarTveloze gadis.
Sedegad saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg mimarTuli nebismieri qmedeba
ruseTis mxridan - energetikul Tu satransporto blokadaSi mo-
qcevis saxiT - zians ayenebs somxeTsac. swored aRniSnuli mizez-
iT daiwyo `gazpromma~ somxeTis iranTan damakavSirebeli gazsad-
enis mSenebloba. aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTis zewolis Sedegad, somx-
eT-iranis damakavSirebeli gazsadenis mSeneblobis dawyebamde
somxeTma uari Tqva ufro farTo gamtarunarianobis mqone mil-
sadenis mSeneblobaze, rac irans saqarTvelosa da aRmosavleT
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza
62
evropaSi gazis eqsportis saSualebas miscemda, xolo amJaminde-
li gamtarunarianoba mxolod somxeTis moTxovnilebas akmay-
ofilebs.
69
prezidentad gaxdomisTanave putinma miznad daisaxa azer-
baijanTan urTierTobebis gaumjobeseba, raTa gadaeWra kaspiis
zRvaSi resursebis mopovebis Semaferxebeli problemebi. imis
gaTvaliswinebiT, rom irani da TurqmeneTi savaraudod Seewi-
naaRmdegebodnen am sakiTxis maTTvis SedarebiT wamgebian gadaw-
yvetas, putins gansakuTrebiT sWirdeboda azerbaijanisa da yaza-
xeTis mxardaWera. mas Semdeg ruseTisa da azerbaijanis urTier-
Tobebi gaumjobesebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeboda. Tumca, aRniS-
nulze uaryofiTi efeqti aqvs mTiani yarabaRis konfliqtSi ruse-
Tis mxardaWeras somxeTisadmi. mTlianobaSi azerbaijanis prezi-
denti ilham alievi ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris yovelTvis da-
balansebis politikas atarebda.
70
putinis prezidentobis periodSi ruseTis sagareo politikaSi
yvelaze did Cavardnas savaraudod saqarTvelos mimarTebaSi ga-
tarebuli politika warmoadgens. 2003 wlis `vardebis revolu-
cias~, romelmac daamtkica saqarTvelosadmi misi Zalismieri
midgomis warumatebloba, ruseTi moumzadebeli Sexvda. man ver-
anairi gavlena ver moaxdina mezobel qveyanaSi mimdinare pro-
cesebze da Sedegad dsT-is sivrceSi yvelaze prodasavluri xe-
lisufleba miiRo. misTvis cudi scenariT ganviTarebuli movle-
nebis Sesacvlelad ruseTma taqtikis Secvla gadawyvita. man uari
Tqva sagareo politikaSi sabWoTa midgomaze, rac ZiriTadad
samxedro Zalasa da ideologias efuZneba. igi dasTanxmda 2008
wlis bolomde saqarTvelodan samxedro bazebis gayvanas. Tumca,
rusul samxedro bazebs rusuli kapitali Caenacvla. putinma Zve-
li `iaraRis JRarunis~ politika, axali `liberaluri imperiis~
politikiT Secvala, romlis mTavar komponentsac saqarTvelos
ekonomikis ZiriTad elementebze kontrolis gazrda warmoadgens.
2003 wels saqarTvelos ekonomikaze kontrolis damyarebis
pirveli nabijebi gadaidga. ivlisSi `gazpromma~, romelic
69
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Armenia in The
Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New York:
Routledge, 2008), 114-119.
70
damatebiTi informaciisTvis ixileT - Bertil Nygren, Russia and Azerbaijan in
The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries (New
York: Routledge, 2008), 110-114.
Tavi mexuTe
63
saqarTveloSi bunebrivi airis umTavres mimwodebels warmoad-
genda, 25 wliani CarCo-xelSekruleba gaaforma saqarTvelos xe-
lisuflebasTan gazis miwodebaze, milsadenebis qselis reabili-
taciaze da somxeTSi gazis tranzitze. mogvianebiT imave wels `rao
eesma~ SeiZina Tbilisis eleqtroenergiis sadistribucio ener-
gokompania `eies-Telasi~ da ramdenime hidroeleqtrosadguri.
rusulma `vneStorgbankma~ 2005 wlis ianvarSi moaxerxa `gaer-
Tianebuli qarTuli bankis~ sakontrolo paketis SeZena, romlis
meSveobiTac mogvianebiT daafuZna kompania `enerji investi~. 2005
wlis seqtemberSi `enerji investma~ SeiZina samxreT kavkasiaSi erT-
erTi umsxvilesi qimiuri sawarmo `azoti~, xolo momdevno wels
daasrula 100 milioni dolaris Rirebulebis airturbinuli
eleqtrosadguris mSenebloba. garda amisa, 2006 wlis ivlisSi
saqarTveloSi ruseTSi yvelaze didi fiWuri kavSirgabmulobis
kompania, `vimpelkomi~ (savaWro markiT `bilaini~) Semovida. rusu-
li kompaniebi momdevno wlebis ganmavlobaSic aqtiurad monawi-
leobdnen msxvili aqtivebis privatizebis konkursebSi. xSir SemTx-
vevaSi es monawileoba xdeboda evropul qveynebSi daregistrire-
buli saSuamavlo kompaniebis meSveobiT, ris gamoc ucnobi iyo Tu
visi interesebi idga maT zurgs ukan. Sedegad rTulia saqarTvelo-
Si rusuli kapitalis realuri moculobis dadgena. Tumca yve-
laze mTavari aqtivi saqarTveloSi, romlis xelSi Casagdebadac
kremli Tavdauzogavad ibrZoda, saqarTveloze gamavali da ruse-
Tis somxeTTan damakavSirebeli bunebrivi airis magistraluri
milsadeni iyo. miuxedavad mudmivi mcdelobisa moskovma mainc
ver SeZlo am strategiulad umniSvnelovanesi gazsadenis xelSi
Cagdeba.
71
daskvna
putinis sagareo politikas 2003-06 wlebSi SegviZlia vuwodoT
`liberaluri imperiis~ mSeneblobisTvis safuZvlis Cayrisa da
saerTSoriso asparezze, maT Soris dsT-is sivrceSi ekonomikuri
faqtoris, gansakuTrebiT energoresursebis gamoyenebiT saku-
Tari gavlenis ganvrcobis faza. iseTma gamaRizianebelma movle-
71
damatebiTi informacisTvis ixileT Bertil Nygren, Putins Attempts to Subju-
gate Georgia: From Sabre-Rattling to the Power of the Purse in Russia Re-emerging Great
Power, ed.Roger E. Kanet (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), 107-124 da Bertil Nygren, Russia and
Georgia in The Rebuilding of Greater Russia Putins Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Coun-
tries (New York: Routledge, 2008), 119-154.
putinis sagareo politikis meore faza
64
nebma, rogoric aris erayis omi, nato-s gafarToeba da `feradi~
revoluciebi dsT-Si aiZula ruseTi Seewyvita `koncentrirebis~
politika da aqtiurad gamosuliyo saerTaSoriso asparezze. pu-
tinis prezidentobis aRniSnul etapze ruseTis sagareo politi-
kas saukeTesod gansazRvravs 2003 wels anatoli Cubaisis mier Se-
moTavazebuli `liberaluri imperiis~ Teoria. aRniSnul midgo-
maSi aqcenti keTdeba saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis `ekonomikur
relsebze~ gadayvanaze, umTavresad ki energoresursebis sagar-
eo politikis iaraRad gamoyenebaze. rogorc evropisa da yofili
sabWoTa qveynebis mimarT ruseTis mier gatarebuli politikis
analizma gviCvena, `energetikuli xelketis~ gamoyenebam ruseTs
xSir SemTxvevaSi warmateba moutana.
2006 wels rusul politikaSi axali ideologiis - `suverenuli
demokratiis~ koncefciis Semotanam da 2007 wels miunxenis usa-
frTxoebis konferenciaze putinis gamosvlam saTave daudo misi
sagareo politikis mesame fazas - aqtiur da Ria konfrontacias
dasavleTTan. kosovos damoukideblobis aRiarebam, CexeTsa da
poloneTSi aSS-is raketsawinaaRmdego sistemebis ganTavsebisa da
nato-s kidev ufro aRmosavleTiT gafarToebis gegmebma am fazis
dawyebisTvis katalizatoris roli iTamaSes. garda sagareo faq-
torebisa, aRniSnul periodSi ruseTis sagareo politikis
formirebaze mniSvnelovani gavlena moaxdines momavalma sapar-
lamento da saprezidento arCevnebmac.
Tavi mexuTe
Tavi meeqvse
putinis sagareo politikis
mesame faza 2006-2008
miunxenis konferencia da
`suverenuli demokratia~
2007 wlis 10 Tebervals vladimir putinis gamosvlas miunxenis
usafrTxoebis konferenciaze eqspertTa erTi nawili axali civi
omis dasawyisad miiCnevs. sxvebi ar eTanxmebian maT da miaCniaT,
rom es iyo ruseTis mier perioduli `orTqlis gamoSveba~ saku-
Tari Sesustebuli msoflio statusis gamo. prezidentobis peri-
odSi yvelaze mwvave saerTaSoriso gamosvlaSi putinma gaakriti-
ka aSS saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi calmxrivad moqmedebisTvis,
unipolaruli msoflios Seqmnis mcdelobisTvis da amiT msofli-
oSi usafrTxoebis SesustebisTvis. misi gancxadebiT, aSS-is mier
`TiTqmis SeuzRudavi, gadaWarbebuli Zalis gamoyenebam~ da `saer-
TaSoriso samarTlis ZiriTadi principebis ugulvebelyofam~ Se-
qmna situacia, sadac `veRaravin ver grZnobs Tavs daculad~.
aRniSnulma gamosvlam aCvena, rom ruseTi-aSS-is urTierTobebi
dRes sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg yvelaze cud mdgomareoba-
Si imyofeba. rTulia virwmunoT, rom msgavsi gamosvliT ruseTis
prezidents imedi aqvs amerikis sagareo politikis Secvlisa. Se-
sabamisad Cndeba kiTxva - ra saWiro iyo msgavsi mgznebare gamosv-
la? ruseTis prezidentis gamosvlis simwvaves SegviZlia ramden-
ime axsna movuZebnoT:
1. putinis gamosvlaSi kritikis erT meoTxedze meti global-
ur usafrTxoebas, iaraRis kontrolsa da ganiaraRebis sak-
iTxebs eTmoboda. Tebervlis Sua ricxvebSi ruseTis Tav-
dacvis saministros genereluri Stabis ufrosma iuri bal-
uevskim da sagareo saqmeTa ministrma sergei lavrovma,
xolo maisSi pirvelma vice-premierma sergei ivanovma gaax-
66
movanes ruseTis saSualo radiusis birTvuli Zalebis xe-
lSekrulebidan
72
gamosvlis SesaZlebloba, rogorc pasuxi
nato-s gafarToebasa da aSS-is gegmebze ganaTavsos polo-
neTsa da CexeTSi raketsawinaaRmdego Tavdacvis sistemis
obieqtebi. aRniSnuli gancxadebebi waagavs koordinirebul
politikas, romlis mizanic aris aCvenos ruseTis SeSfoTe-
ba aSS-is mier saerTaSoriso sakiTxebis gadawyvetisas misi
ignorirebis gamo da daanaxos msoflios ruseTis mier ade-
kvaturi pasuxis gacemis SesaZlebloba.
2. putini cdilobs ruseTis antiamerikulad ganwyobil qvey-
nebs Soris liderad damkvidrebas. igi cdilobs gamoiyenos
is saerTaSoriso sirTuleebi, romlebic aSS-s eqmneba uka-
naskneli wlebis ganmavlobaSi, gansakuTrebiT eraySi.
radikalurad ganwyobili rusi politikosebis azriT, am
gamosvliT putini CineTsa da arabul samyarosTan erTad
ruseTis antiamerikuli koaliciis saTaveSi moqcevas cdi-
lobs - `Tuki adre ruseTs saerTaSoriso asparezze saku-
Tari adgilisTvis xvewna sWirdeboda, dRes igi Tavad gan-
sazRvravs am adgils, moswons es vinme sxvas Tu ara~
73
. dRes
ruseTs ukve aRar eSinia izolaciis an dasavluri sesxebisa
da investiciebis dakargvis.
3. misi gamosvla gamiznuli iyo Sida auditoriaze, raTa gaem-
yarebina putinis, rogorc Zlieri nacionaluri lideris
adgili ruseTis istoriaSi da gaezarda misi mxardaWera an-
tiamerikulad ganwyobili rusebis umetesobaSi sapreziden-
to arCevnebis gardamavali periodis ganmavlobaSi. swored
aRniSnul periodSi daiwyes kremlis politologebma prez-
identis Tanamdebobis datovebis Semdeg putinis naciona-
lur liderad darCenis Sesaxeb ideis ganviTareba.
4. eqspertTa nawili putinis gamosvlas sparseTis yuris arab-
ul qveynebSi misi vizitisTvis niadagis Semzadebad miiCnevs.
maTi azriT, sparseTis yureSi vizitis win, romlis mizanic
ruseTSi investiciebis mozidva aris, putini cdilobs ar-
abul samyaroSi dadebiTi imiji Seuqmnas ruseTs. ukanasknel
72
xelSekruleba, romelic 1987 wels sabWoTa kavSirsa da aSS-s Soris gaform-
da gulisxmobs saSualo da mcire radiusis birTvuli raketebis ganadgurebas
http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/treaties/inf1.html (accessed August 6, 2008).
73
2004-07 ww. ruseTis saxelmwifo dumis vice-spikeri sergei baburini.
Tavi meeqvse
67
wlebSi ruseTma kargi urTierTobebi ganaviTara sunitur
arabul qveynebTan, maT Soris gansakuTrebiT saudis ara-
beTTan.
putinis sagareo politikuri Seteva dasavleTze miunxenamde
gacilebiT adre daiwyo. erayis omma, nato-s gafarToebam, ferad-
ma revoluciebma, aRmosavleT evropaSi aSS-is raketsawinaaRm-
dego Tavdacvis sistemam, msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi ruse-
Tis gawevrianebis dablokvam da mudmivma Tavdasxmebma ruseTSi
demokratiisa da adamianis uflebebis dacvis xarisxis gamo ruse-
Tis sagareo politikaSi kardinaluri cvlilebebi gamoiwvia.
ruseTma Sewyvita `koncentrirebis~ politika da 2003 wlidan
dasavleTTan konfrontaciis gziT wavida. 2007 wlamde aRniSnu-
li kursi mxolod sagareo politikis qveda dinebebSi Tu iyo Ses-
amCnevi. miunxenis gamosvlam da rac yvelaze mniSvnelovania am
sityvas moyolilma saqmem es cvlileba saerTaSoriso urTier-
Tobebis zedapirze amoitana. miunxenis gamosvla iyo dasavleT-
Tan Ria da mwvave konfrontaciisken gadadgmuli erT-erTi pirve-
li nabiji. Tumca manamde iyo `suverenuli demokratia~.
`suverenuli demokratia~
cneba `suverenuli demokratia~ pirvelad kremlis mTavarma
ideologma da `ruxma kardinalma~, vladislav surkovma
74
2006
wlis TebervalSi gaaxmovana. vidre Tavad cnebis gavecnobodeT,
sainteresoa putinis prezidentobis periodSi misi avtoris poli-
tikuri rolis mimoxilva. vladislav surkovi, romelic putinis
prezidentad arCevamde xodorkovskis bank `menatepSi~ (1991-96 ww.)
da berezovskis telekompania `ort~-Si (1998-99 ww.) sazogadoe-
basTan urTierTobaTa menejerad muSaobda, ukanaskneli rva wlis
ganmavlobaSi ruseTSi erT-erT yvelaze gavlenian figurad da
kremlis ideologad iTvleboda. swored mas miaweren ruseTis
mmarTveli partiis `edinaia rosias~, nacionalisturad ganwyo-
bil opoziciur partia `rodinasa~ da ruseTSi yvelaze Zlieri
axalgazrduli moZraobis `naSis~ Seqmnas. axal ideologias, rom-
lis prezentaciac man 2006 wlis TebervalSi moaxdina, Tavad surk-
ovi Semdegnairad aRwers:
`dasaSvebia ganvsazRvroT suverenuli demokratia, rogorc
74
ruseTis prezidentis administraciis ufrosis moadgile 1999-2008 ww.
putinis sagareo politikis mesame faza
68
sazogadoebis politikuri cxovrebis forma, romlis drosac xe-
lisufleba, misi organoebi da qmedebebi irCeva, formirdeba da
imarTeba mxolod da mxolod rusi eris mier~
75
axali koncefciis aRwerisas surkovi aqcents akeTebs ruseTis
samoqalaqo sazogadoebis ganviTarebasa da konkurentunariani
ekonomikis Seqmnaze, riTac qveyana Tavs daaRwevs gare Zalebis
gavlenas da realur suverenitetsa da msoflio movlenebze ze-
gavlenis meqnizms moipovebs. koncefcia Semdeg mosazrebebs
efuZneba:
rusma xalxma Tavad unda gansazRvros qveynis xelisufleb-
is wyaroebi da misi gamoyeneba, raTa daculi iqnas materi-
aluri Tanafardoba da socialuri samarTlianoba;
ruseTma xeli unda Seuwyos saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi
saxelmwifoebis suverenulobis zrdas - rac ganasaxierebs
dasavleTis mier mis saSinao saqmeebSi CarevasTan moskovis
mudmiv winaaRmdegobas;
suverenulad demokratiuli saxelmwifo Tavad unda wyvet-
des ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis sakiTxebs da irCevdes sa-
gareo politikur orientacias - rac warmoadgens nato-s
axal wevrebisa da aliansSi Sesvlis msurvelebisgan mTavar
gansxvavebas, romlebmac ruseTis azriT, alianss, da Sesa-
bamisad aSS-s, zedmeti gavlena mianiWes sakuTar erovnul
usafrTxoebaze.
termini suverenuli demokratia, araerTxel gamoiyenes saku-
Tar gamosvlaSi ruseTis wamyvanma politikosebma, maT Soris Ta-
vad vladimir putinma, Tavdacvis ministrma sergei ivanovma da
saxelmwifo saTaTbiros Tavmjdomarem boris grizlovma. `suv-
erenuli demokratiis~ praqtikaSi realizebas warmoadgenda
politikuri sistema erTi dominanti partiiT, romelic 2007 wlis
saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg Camoyalibda ruseTSi. koncefci-
is konkretulma prioritetebma da orientirebma asaxva hpova e.w.
`putinis gegmaSic~ - 2007 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis win ruse-
Tis prezidentis politikur da ekonomikur programaSi, xolo
2007 wels gamoSvebul ruseTis istoriis axal saxelmZRvaneloSi
`ruseTis uaxlesi istoria 1945-2006~, mas specialurad Tavic ki
75
, , 43 (537), November
20, 2006, http://www.expert.ru/printissues/expert/2006/43/nacionalizaciya_buduschego/ (access-
ed August 6, 2008).
Tavi meeqvse
69
mieZRvna
76
.
putinis mmarTvelobis dasawyisSi ruseTis sagareo politika
deideologizirebuli iyo. `narinjisferi Sokis~ Semdeg, gan-
sakuTrebiT ki misi sagareo politikis mesame fazaSi ideologiuri
datvirTva sagrZnobi gaxda. `suverenuli demokratiis~ Tezisi
iqca umniSvnelovanes formulad kremlis sagareo politikis
gasagebad. ruseTis `suverenuloba~, rac am formulis umniSvnelo-
vanes nawils warmoadgens, niSnavs mis formalur da faqtobriv
damoukideblobas dasavleTisgan, kerZod ki aSS-sa da evrokav-
Sirisgan. `demokratia~ Seicavs dasavleTTan ruseTis xarisxobriv
Tanasworobas. rusuli demokratia damyarebulia ara imdenad
institutebze, ramdenadac xalxis ndobaze qveynis xelisuflebis
mimarT, rogorc amas Tavad putini acxadebs. kremlis mosazre-
biT, msoflioSi ruseTis garda mxolod erTi `suverenuli
demokratia~ arsebobs - es aris aSS. rac Seexeba sxva saxelmwifoe-
bs, isini an arasakmarisad suverenulebi arian an arasakmariasad
demokratiulebi.
miunxenis Semdeg
saeqsperto wreebSi miRebulia mosazreba, rom 2007 wlis Teberv-
lis `miunxenis gamosvliT~ vladimir putinma ruseTis sagareo
politikaSi axali gverdi gadaSala. sinamdvileSi am nabijiT man
mxolod daasrula is cvlileba, rac sami-oTxi wliT adre daiw-
yo. cvlilebis mizans warmoadgens saerTaSoriso asparezze ruse-
Tis TviTmyofad moTamaSed dabruneba. `miunxenis gamosvla~ am
konteqstSi mxolod urTierTobebis tonalobis da Sesabamisad
taqtikis, da ara strategiis mkveTr cvlilebaze mianiSnebs.
ruseTis sagareo politikuri TviTmyofadobis materialuri
safuZveli aSkara aris - praqtikulad bolomde gadaxdili sagar-
eo vali, mkveTrad gazrdili savaluto rezervebi, mravaljer
gazrdili mTliani Sida produqti (1.25 trilioni dolari 2007
wels, 2000 wlis 200 miliardTan SedarebiT). es maCveneblebi uka-
naskneli rva wlis myar ekonomikur zrdaze mianiSnebs da is faqti
rom es zrda, zogierTi eqspertis SefasebiT sanaxevrod, ener-
goresursebze fasis zrdis xarjze moxda, ar amcirebs mis mniS-
76
, : ,
, , September 14, 2007, http://www.kp.ru/daily/23967/73114/
(accessed August 6, 2008).
putinis sagareo politikis mesame faza
70
vnelobas.
saerTaSoriso politikuri koniunqtura iseve keTilganwyo-
bili iyo ruseTis mimarT, rogorc fasi energoresursebze. 2005
wlidan erTaderTi `zesaxelmwifo~-s statusis mqone qveyana - aSS,
ganicdida sirTuleebs eraysa da avRaneTSi. daiwyo saubari aSS-s
sagareo politikis krizisze da misi saerTaSoriso imijis upre-
cedento dacemaze. ukanasknel periodSi mas daemata amerikis fi-
nansuri SesaZleblobebis Semcireba. `feradi revoluciebi~ post-
sabWoTa sivrceSi, romlebic kremls 2004-2005 wlebSi sakmaod aS-
foTebda, sagrZnoblad gafermkrTalda da maTi magaliTis mimz-
idvelobac Semcirda. evrokavSiri uwindeburad dakavebulia sak-
uTari Sida integraciis problemebiT. CineTi Seuferxeblad ga-
nagrZobs aRmasvlas, Tumca misi urTierTobebi ruseTTan kvlav
stabilurad megobruli rCeba. izrdeba sxva ganviTarebadi qvey-
nebis - indoeTis, braziliis, samxreT afrikis - saerTaSoriso
wonac. `multipolaruli samyaro~, romelsac kremli ukanaskne-
li aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi uWerda mxars, sul ufro realuri
xdeba.
ruseTis sagareo politikis `zurgic~ sakmaod Zlierad gam-
oiyureba. xelisufleba kvlav inarCunebs erTianobas. parlamen-
tis arCevnebi faqtobrivad popularuli prezidentis mxardaW-
eris plebiscitad iqca. saprezidento arCevnebis bedi jer kidev
kandidatebis dasaxelebamde iyo garkveuli. oligarqebisgan mx-
olod mogonebaRa darCa, xolo biznesma gakveTili kargad aiTvi-
sa. komunistebma, romlebic erTaderT opoziciur Zalad darC-
nen qveyanaSi, sakuTari viwro niSa daikaves, xolo liberalebi
sruliad ganadgurebulni da marginalizebulni arian. qveynis
teritoriuli mTlianoba dRes ukve aRdgenilia da ukanaskneli
sami-oTxi wlis ganmavlobaSi seriozul teraqts adgili ar hqo-
nia.
kremlis politteqnologebma da prezidentis administraciam
metwilad moaxerxa nacionalizmis postimperiuli talRis kon-
servatiul patriotizmis kalapotSi mimarTva. kremlis rusul
eklesiasTan mWidro TanamSromlobis Sedegad, marTlmadideblo-
ba sazogadoebrivi cxovrebis erT-erT umTavres Rirebulebad da
safuZvlad iqca. maswavleblebma ki axali, `erovnulobaze orien-
tirebuli~ istoriis saxelmZRvaneloebi miiRes. am pirobebSi mosk-
ovis TviTmyofadi sagareo politika farTo mxardaWeras pou-
Tavi meeqvse
71
lobs ruseTis socialuri fenebis umetesobaSi. 1990-iani wlebis
fermkrTali sagareopolitikuri konsensusi kremlis nebismieri
diplomatiuri nabijis avtomatur mxardaWerad iqca.
amgvarad, miuxeni-2007 warmoadgens upirveles yovlisa ruse-
Tis sagareo politikis taqtikis cvlilebas: aSS-is qmemedebebis
gamo ukmayofilebis Cumad gamoxatvidan - maT sajaro kritikisken,
ruseTis interesebis gauTvaliswineblobis gamo Civilidan - amave
interesebis uzrunvelsayofad calmxriv qmedebebisken, dasavle-
Tis mier ruseTis xelisuflebis kritikis gamo aRSfoTebidan -
mwvave, xSirad Seuracxmyofeli gamosvlebisken, ruseTis terito-
riaze maTi gavlenis instrumentebis aRkveTisken da diskusiis
mowinaaRmdegis moedanze gadatanisken. miunxeni da yvelaferi rac
mas mohyva iyo kremlis pirobebze partniorobisken iZulebis mcde-
loba.
miunxenis Semdeg gasuli periodis ganmavlobaSi, ruseTma
mkveTrad gamohyo is punqtebi, sadac moskovis pozicia winaaRm-
degobaSi modioda dasavleTis poziciasTan. SeiaraRebis kontro-
li yvela doneze - strategiul TavdacviT da SeteviT, saSualo
da mcire radiusis raketebis da evropaSi Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis
- kvlav moxvda rusul-amerikuli da rusul-evropuli urTier-
TobaTa centrSi. am fonze moskovma daiwyo sahaero da sazRvao
samxedro Zalis SezRuduli demonstrireba: 2007 wlidan, pirve-
lad ukanaskneli 20 wlis ganmavlobaSi, rusuli strategiuli
bombdamSenebi patrulirebas axorcieleben msoflios okeaneeb-
is Tavze, xolo rusulma xomaldebma patrulireba ganaaxles xmel-
TaSua zRvaSi da CrdiloeT-yinulovan okeaneSi. am nabijiT ruse-
Ti cdilobs aCvenos, rom msoflioSi aSS-s garda aris saxelmwifo,
romelsac ZaluZs globalur doneze sakuTari Zalis Tu ara, dro-
Sis demonstrireba mainc.
daskvna
putinis sagareo politikis mesame faza, romelic 2006-08 wlebs
moicavs, warmoadgens wina ori fazis logikur gagrZelebas. mas
Semdeg, rac pirvel fazaSi ruseTma warmatebulad moaxerxa waru-
mateblobisTvis ganwirul saerTaSoriso TamaSTa umetesobisgan
Tavis arideba da qveynis SigniT Zalauflebis konsolidaciasa da
ekonomikuri stabilizaciaze `koncentrireba~, xolo meore fa-
putinis sagareo politikis mesame faza
72
zaSi daiwyo globalur doneze ruseTis ekonomikuri eqspansia
ZiriTadad energoresursebis gamoyenebiT da `liberaluri im-
periis~ mSenebloba, dadga dro aRniSnuli berketebisa da miRw-
evebis aqtiurad da Riad gamoyenebisa. sagareo politikis mesame
fazaze gavlena iqonia momaval saparlamento da saprezidento
arCevnebTan dakavSirebulma gardamavali periodis faqtormac,
Tumca gamomdinare iqidan, rom putini prezidentis Tanamdebo-
bis datovebis miuxedavad, kvlav faqtobrivad erTpirovnulad
ganagebs qveynis sagareo politikas, masSi arsebiTi cvlileba ar
gamouwvevia. eqspertTa nawilis SefasebiT aRniSnuli periodi 2006-
dan 2008 wlamde, warmoadgens `axali civi omis~ dasawyiss, Tumca,
rogorc es putinis sagareo politikis meore fazis ganxilvisas
gamoCnda, `axali civi omi~ miunxenamde gacilebiT adre daiwyo.
miunxenis gamosvlas da mis Semdgom ganviTarebul movlenebs Seg-
viZlia mxolod `farulidan Ria konfrontaciaSi~ gadasvlis etapi
vuwodoT.
Tavi meeqvse
daskvna
ruseTi putinis Semdeg
1999 wels, rodesac vladimir putini politikur scenaze avi-
da, farTo ganxilvis erT-erTi umtkivneules sagans warmoadgen-
da Tema `msoflio ruseTis gareSe~. 1998 wlis ekonomkurma kriz-
isma da defoltma eqspertTa mosazrebiT wertili dausva mosko-
vis saerTaSoriso ambiciebs. prezidentis rangSi mis erT-erT pirv-
el statiaSi vladimir putini aRiarebs, rom sabWoTa kavSiris
rRveva pirvel rigSi misma ekonomikurma araefeqturobam gana-
piroba. prezidentad arCevis Semdeg putinma miznad daisaxa ruse-
Tis `didi saxelmwifos~ statusiT saerTaSoriso poziciebis aRd-
gena da mis globalur moTamaSed qceva, magram sabWoTa kavSiris-
gan gansxvavebiT, es unda momxdariyo ara samxedro-ideologiur,
aramed ekonomikur safuZvelze. am miznis misaRwevad, rogorc es
mogvianebiT aRmoCnda, putinisTvis uaRresad xelsayreli gare-
mo Seiqmna - mas wilad xvda qveynis prezidentoba, ruseTis
ekonomikis swrafi zrdis epoqaSi, rac ZiriTadad msoflioSi en-
ergoresursebze fasis zrdiT iqna ganpirobebuli.
saerTaSoriso scenaze putini warsdga, rogorc pragmatikosi,
romelic mzad aris gamoiyenos sxvadasxva saSualebebi da meTode-
bi dasaxuli miznis misaRwevad. dasawyisisTvis putinma wesrigSi
moiyvana boris elcinisgan memkvidreobiT miRebuli sagareo
politikuri sakiTxebi. man daxura `kosovos~ Tavi nato-sTan urT-
ierTobebSi, rac gamowveuli iyo moskovis protestis ignorire-
biT iugoslaviis dabombviT. Semdeg mWidro urTierTobebi daam-
yara britaneTis premier toni blerTan, italiis premier silvio
berluskonisTan da germaniis kancler gerhard SrioderTan,
romlebic garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi evropasa da aSS-Si
mis interesebsac ki icavdnen (ukanaskneli ori politikosi evro-
pel liderebs Soris dRemde mis saukeTeso megobrebad iTvlebi-
74
an). aRniSnul partniorebze dayrdnobiT putins saSualeba mieca,
ignorireba gaekeTebina CeCneTis omTan dakavSirebiT evrokavSiris
kritikisTvis. moskovma moaxdina sakuTari politikis koreqtireba
dsT-sTan mimarTebaSi da ganagrZo aziis qveynebTan, pirvel rigSi
CineTTan da indoeTTan daaxloeba.
prezidentobis dasawyisSi putini dasavleTTan daaxloebis
survils gamoxatavda. xelisuflebaSi yofnis pirvel dReebSi
putinma gadawyvita ar gaemwvavebina urTierTobebi aSS-sTan, sa-
dac 2000 wels saprezidento arCevnebi unda Catarebuliyo da
dalodeboda axali prezidentis arCevas. igi kargad moemzada
jorj buSTan pirveli SexvedrisTvis, daamyara masTan Tbili urT-
ierTobebi, xolo 2001 wlis 11 seqtembris teroristuli Tavdasxme-
bis Semdeg miiRo erTaderTi swori gadawyvetileba - piradad dau-
Wira mxari aSS-is prezidents misTvis rTul momentSi. mogvianebiT
putinma, sakuTari garemocvis sawinaaRmdego poziciis miuxeda-
vad, gadawyvita avRaneTis operaciaSi aSS-is mxardaWera da xeli
ar SeuSala centralur aziaSi amerikuli jarebis ganTavsebas.
es nabiji, sakuTari masStaburobiT udavod strategiuls war-
moadgenda: ruseTis prezidents mieca Sansi gamxdariyo aSS-is wamy-
vani mokavSire terorizmTan brZolaSi. am strategiuli daaxloe-
biT bevri ram Tavdayira dgeboda: azrs kargavda nato-s arseboba
da iqmneboda axali globaluri koalicia aSS-sa da ruseTis li-
derobiT. savaraudod, putinma miiCnia, rom arsebul pirobebSi
moskovs vaSingtonisgan sakuTari ZiriTadi interesebis mimarT
ufro meti keTilganwyobis imedi unda hqonoda. Tumca, sinamd-
vileSi putinis am nabijis ukan aranairi konkretuli strategiu-
li gegma ar ikveTeboda. rogorc mogvianebiT gamoCnda, 11 seqtem-
bris Semdeg, saerTaSoriso terorizmTan brZolaSi aSS-is mxardaW-
eris erT-erTi umTavresi mizezi iyo CeCneTSi sakuTari moqmede-
bebis gamarTleba. eqspertTa umetesobas miaCnda, rom putinis sa-
gareo politikis mizans ruseTis evropul qveynad qceva da evro-
paSi demokratiis mxardamWeri Tanamedrove lideris saxelis
damkvidreba warmoadgenda. Tumca drom daamtkica, rom msgavsi
optimisturi prognozebi safuZvels iyo moklebuli. putinma sak-
uTari sagareo politikis pirveli faza e.w. `koncentrirebis~
politikas miuZRvna, romlis drosac igi cdilobda dro da dasav-
leTis keTilganwyoba moego, raTa qveynis SigniT Zalauflebis
konsolidaciisa da ekonomikis strategiuli seqtorebis renacio-
daskvna
75
nalizaciis procesi Seuferxeblad ganexorcielebina. aSS-sTan
aliansis SesaZleblobam didxans ar gastana - amerikelebma uari
Tqves postsabWoTa sivrcis ruseTis sacicocxlo intersebis sf-
erod aRqmaze, rac kremlis dRis wesrigis mTavar punqts warmoad-
genda, xolo 2002 wlis zafxulidan aSS-m ukve erayis omisTvis dai-
wyo mzadeba. amerikelebis eraySi Sesvlis Semdeg, moskovisa da
vaSingtonis TanamSromloba gauaresebisken wavida. TeTri saxli
da gansakuTrebiT pentagoni aRar saWiroebdnen ruseTis daxmare-
bas, xolo moskovma aSS-is aqciebSi Zalismieri hegemoniisken
swrafvis saxifaTo simptomi dainaxa.
swored am viTarebaSi Camoyalibda axali aliansi aSS-is `mego-
bruli Sekavebis~ mizniT - parizs, berlinsa da moskovs Soris.
putinma jer kidev sakuTari prezidentobis dasawyisSi ganacxada
ruseTis `evropuli arCevnis~ Sesaxeb da axla ukve, energoresurse-
bze fasebis zrdis pirobebSi, imedi hqonda evropasTan politikuri
da pirvel rigSi ekonomikuri daaxloebis. prezidentobis pirv-
el wlebSi da sagareo politikuri moRvaweobis pirvel fazaSi
putinma Tavi Seikava vaSingtonTan Ria da mwvave konfrontaciaze
wasvlisgan da winaswar wagebul TamaSSi CarTvisgan. sanacvlod
man koncentrireba moaxdina qveynis SigniT Zalauflebis konsol-
idaciaze, `saxelisuflebo vertikalis~ mSeneblobaze, ekonomikis
reabilitaciaze da germaniis, safrangeTisa da italiis
liderebTan piradi urTierTobebis gamoyenebiT evropasTan
ekonomikur urTierTdamokidebulebaze dafuZnebuli urTierTo-
bebis Camoyalibeba daiwyo. ruseTma sakuTari sagareo poli-
tikidan sami sabWoTa komponenti amoiRo: man uari Tqva mesianur
ideologiaze, mxolod samxedro Zalaze damokidebulebaze da
teritoriuli eqspansiis upiratesobaze. putinis sagareo poli-
tikis ZiriTad iaraRad biznesi iqca. amis erT-erTi mizezi aris is
faqti, rom xalxi, romelic marTavs ruseTs, agreTve flobs mas -
ruseTis umsxviles korporaciebs pirdapir Tu iribad qveynis
politikuri elita akontrolebs. erTi SexedviT ruseTisa da wamy-
vani evropuli qveynebis strategiuli daaxloeba gardauvali
Canda.
`iukosis saqmis~ dawyebiT urTierTobebi dasavleTTan gauares-
da, xolo 2003-05 wlebi - erayis omis, `vardebis revoluciis~,
evrokavSirisa da nato-s gafarToebis, beslanis teraqtisa da
ukrainis `narinjisferi revoluciis~ wlebi - gadamwyvet peri-
ruseTi putinis Semdeg
76
odad iqca ruseTisa da dasavleTis urTierTobebSi. beslanis
tragediis Semdeg putinma faqtobrivad daadanaSaula aSS ruse-
Tis dasustebisa da danawevrebisken mimarTuli politikis gatare-
baSi. ukrainis movlenebi, sadac ruseTis prezidentma mZime pira-
di marcxi ganicada, rusebis mier aRqmuli iqna ukrainis ruseTis-
gan CamoSorebis amerikul specoperaciad da placdarmad mosk-
ovSi msgavsi `narinjisferi scenaris~ gameorebisTvis, rasac mo-
hyva kidec ruseTSi `naSi~-s msgavsi nacionalisturad da anti-
dasavlurad ganwyobili axalgazrduli organizaciebis Camoy-
alibeba.
putinis mmarTvelobis dasawyisSi ruseTis sagareo politika
Tavisufali iyo ideologiuri datvirTvisgan. `feradi revolu-
ciebis~ Semdeg, gansakuTrebiT ki misi sagareo politikis mesame
fazaSi, `suverenuli demokratiis~ koncefciis Semosvla da na-
cionalisturad ganwyobili axalgazrduli moZraobebis Camoy-
alibeba, warmoadgens dasavleTidan momdinare safrTxisgan krem-
lis TavdacviT reaqcias. aRniSnuli Tezisi iqca umniSvnelovanes
saxelmZRvanelod, ukanasknel periodSi kremlis sagareo poli-
tikis gasagebad. `suverenuloba~, rac am formulis umniSvnelov-
anes nawils warmoadgens, niSnavs mis formalur da faqtobriv
damoukideblobas dasavleTisgan, kerZod ki aSS-sa da evrokav-
Sirisgan. `demokratia~ Seicavs dasavleTTan ruseTis xarisxobriv
Tanasworobas. ruseTis mmarTveli elitis mosazrebiT, msofli-
oSi ruseTis garda mxolod erTi `suverenuli demokratia~ arse-
bobs - es aris aSS. rac Seexeba sxva saxelmwifoebs, isini an sarasak-
marisad suverenulebi arian an arasakmariasad demokratiulebi.
mas Semdeg rac gaistumra sagareo valebi, kremli demonstraci-
ulad uars ambobs `msmenelis~ rolSi yofnaze da parteridan
scenaze gamodis. dRevandeli putini, rva wlis winandelisgan gan-
sxvavebiT, uars ambobs SemzRudav kavSirebSi CarTvaze (magali-
Tad ruseTis nato-Si Sesvlis hipoTetiur SesaZleblobaze), da
uSvebs ruseTis monawileobas mxolod `elitaruli donis~ inte-
graciaSi (didi rviani, msoflio savaWro organizacia) an ruse-
Tis mier dominirebul sivrceSi (postsabWoTa sivrce). moskovi
aris erTaderTi didi rvianis qveynebidan, romelsac urTierTo-
bebi aqvs palestinaSi hamasis reJimTan da venesuelasTan. aSS-sTan
dapirispirebul iranTan da siriasTan ruseTi TanamSromlobs
samxedro SeiaraRebis sferoSi. kremli dRes ukve pretenzias acx-
daskvna
77
adebs mis globalur statusze da mis uflebaze monawileoba mi-
iRos universaluri Rirebulebebis da msoflio dRis wesrigis
formirebaze.
rusuli sazogadoebis umniSvnelovanes safuZvlad sul ufro
xmamaRla saxeldeba marTlmadidebloba. amasTan erTad kremli
ar izRudavs Tavs ruseTis sazRvrebiT: putini piradad uwyobda
xels moskovis patriarqatis sazRvargareTul eklesiasTan Serw-
ymas. sruliad ruseTis patriarqis aleqsei II-is gamosvla evrosa-
bWos saparlamento asambleaze 2007 wlis 2 oqtombers
77
warmoad-
genda gansakuTrebuli `rusul-marTlmadidebluri xedvis~ gac-
nobas evropuli auditoriisTvis. am nabijebiT ruseTi cdilobs
evropis tradiciuli e.i. qristianuli Rirebulebebis damcvelad
wrmoaCinos Tavi. evrosabWosa da euTo-s pretenziebis, adamianis
uflebaTa da TavisuflebaTa dacvis sferoSi universalurobis
Sesaxeb, pasuxad ruseTma Seqmna Tavisuflebisa da demokratiis
sazogadoebrivi instituti, ganyofilebebiT niu-iorksa da pariz-
Si da ukve Tavad akritikebs fundamenturi Rirebulebebis dacvis
dones dasavleTSi.
moskovis sainformacio winsvla msoflioSi aRiniSna uprece-
dento donisa da masStabis saerTaSoriso forumebis organize-
biT ruseTSi: sanqt-peterburgis 300 wlisTavi (2003 wels), meore
msoflio omSi gamarjvebis 60 wlisTavi (2005 wels) da didi rvi-
anis samiti (2006 wels), xolo win soWis zamTris olimpiada (2014
wels) da vladivostokSi azia-wynari okeanis ekonomikuri Tanam-
Sromlobis samiti (2012 wels) aris. amuSavda - inglisur da arab-
ul enebze - 24 saaTiani telearxi `Russia Today~, romelic sazR-
vargareT mauwyeblobs. dasavleTis wamyvan gazeTebSi ruseTis
politikur da ekonomikur mimoxilvas regularulad eZRvneba
adgili. xolo Tavad vladimir putini, romelic prezidentad
arCevis dros sruliad ucnobi pirovneba iyo, 2007 wels Jurnalma
`Time~-ma wlis adamianad daasaxela.
miuxedavad amisa, ruseTis imiji ukanaskneli oTxi wlis ganmav-
lobaSi sagrZnoblad gauaresda. `litvinenkos saqmem~ gamoiwvia
kritikis gamwvaveba ara mxolod konkretuli qmedebebis mimarT,
aramed mTlianad ruseTis xelisuflebis saSinao da sagareo poli-
ruseTi putinis Semdeg
77
ruseTis patriarqis, aleqsei II-is gamosvla strasburgSi, evrokavSiris
saparlamento asambleaze, http://www.strasbourg-reor.org/modules.php?name=News&new_
topic=32&file=article&sid=612 (accessed August 6, 2008).
78
tikis da piradad prezidentis mimarT. kremlis xedviT, dasavle-
Tis amgvari reaqcia mxolod erTze mianiSnebda: ruseTis dabrune-
ba msoflio scenaze aRqmul iqna, rogorc safrTxe sabWoTa kav-
Siris ngrevis Semdeg Camoyalibebuli unipolaruli msof-
liosTvis. Sedegad putinma miiRo gadawyvetileba kontrSetevaze
gadasuliyo.
putinis sagareo politikis meore da mesame fazaSi ruseTi cdi-
lobda ufro msxvil saerTaSoriso moTamaSeebs Soris balansis
dacviT evraziaSi sakuTari Zalis centri Seeqmna - dasavleTiT
evrokavSiridan samxreTiT CineTamde, CrdiloeT polusidan ruse-
Tis imperiisa da sabWoTa kavSiris yofil samxreT sazRvramde.
aqcenti keTdeboda ruseTis ekonomikaze, rogorc yvelaze ufro
Zlier iaraRze, romelsac SeeZlo magnitis roli eTamaSa dsT-is
saxelmwifoebis ekonomikebTan mimarTebaSi. rusuli kompaniebis
eqspansia dsT-is wevr qveynebSi unda yofiliyo am iaraRis praq-
tikuli realizacia. ruseTis saerTaSoriso politikuri da
ekonomikuri wonis zrdas, saSualeba unda mieca misTvis realuri
mxardaWera gaewia megobruli reJimebisTvis da efeqturad moex-
dina regionaluri usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa. da bolos,
rusul enas, ganaTlebas, mecnierebas da kulturas unda Camoey-
alibebina ruseTis garSemo prorusuli sazogadoeba da rusocen-
truli sivrce.
praqtikaSi es gaTvla ar gamarTlda. politikur sferoSi, uka-
naskneli rva wlis ganmavlobaSi, dsT-is sivrceSi ruseTma verc
erTi konfliqtis mogvareba ver moaxerxa. ekonomikis sferoSi
integracia Zalzed nela mimdinareobs. amasTan erTad, am mima-
rTulebiT moqmedebs ruseTze gacilebiT ufro Zlieri magnitebi
- Tundac igive evrokavSiri da CineTi. garda amisa, ruseTis mxri-
dan SeRavaTebis gauqmebas, anu rogorc mas sagareo saqmeTa minis-
tri sergei lavrovi uwodebs saxelmwifoebis `ekonomikur eman-
sipacias~ Tan sdevda iseTi Cavardnebi, rogoric iyo 2006 wlis
gazis krizisi ukrainasTan. usafrTxoebis sferoSi, rTulia me-
gobruli reJimebis mimarT moskovis mier qmediTi daxmarebis gaw-
evis SesaZleblobisa da mzaobis donis gansazRvra. rusuli ena
ukve dRes iZulebulia konkurencia gauwios nacionalur da sxva
ucxour enebsa da kulturul gavlenas, ris gamoc misi gamoyeneba
postsabWoTa sivrceSi jerjerobiT mcirdeba. ruseTis sagareo
politikis erT-erT umniSvnelovanes problemas warmoadgens
daskvna
79
saerTaSoriso asparezze misi mokavSireebis TandaTanobiT Sem-
cireba. multipolaruloba ar niSnavs aSS-is hegemoniasTan dakav-
Sirebuli yvela problemis TavisTavad gadawyvetas. piriqiT, es
niSnavs TamaSis wesebis kidev ufro garTulebas. ruseTma romc
moaxerxos 2020 wlisTvis msoflios wamyvani ekonomikebis xuTeul-
Si Sesvla, rogorc es qveynis xelisuflebam daisaxa miznad, gansx-
vaveba massa da liderebs - aSS-s, evrokavSirsa da CineTs - Soris
uzarmazari iqneba. am pirobebSi wonasworobis SenarCuneba da miT
umetes Tanasworobaze pretenziis qona advili ar iqneba. polusi
SesaZloa mravali iyos, magram kalibri eqnebaT maT sxvadasxva.
prezidentis rangSi putinis moRvaweobis rva wlis Sefasebisas,
unda aRvniSnoT, rom ruseTis saerTaSoriso poziciebi aSkarad
gaZlierda. amaSi gadamwyveti roli iTamaSa energoresursebze
fasebis matebis paralelurad ekonomikuri zrdis gamo finansuri
mdgomareobis gamyarebam. dRes ori umTavresi mizezis gamo ruse-
Tis ekonomika aRmavlobas ganicdis:
1. maRali fasebi navTobze, gazze da sxva nedleulze - rac
idealuria ruseTisTvis, rogorc bunebrivi resursebiT
mdidari qveynisTvis;
2. politikuri stabiluroba - SesaZloa adgilobrivi da ucx-
oeli investorebisTvis biznesis warmoebis wesebi ruseTSi
zedmetad mkacria, magram elcinis droisgan gansxvavebiT
isini met-naklebad inarCuneben stabilurobas.
putinis mier qveyanaSi ganxorcielebulma xelisuflebis cen-
tralizaciam, biznesze saxelmwifos mier, xolo xelisuflebaze
biurokratiis mier kontrolis realizaciam, gamoiwvia ruseTis
`korporacia kremlis~ saxiT Camoyalibeba, romlis calkeuli
elementebic - `gazpromi~, `rosnefti~, `rosatomi~, `ruseTis
rkinigza~, `rusuli teqnologiebi~ da sxva korporaciebi -
Seudgnen aqtiur saerTaSoriso eqspansias. ruseTis ekonomikuri
interesebis sazRvargareT mizanmimarTuli mxardaWera iqca
vladimir putinis sagareo politikis umniSvnelovanes maxasiaTe-
blad. amavdroulad moxerxda SeiaraRebul ZalebSi situaciis
stabilizireba da `derJavuli~ patriotizmis oficialur
ideologiur platformad aRdgena.
konkretulad sagareo politikuri saqmianobis Sedegebi gac-
ilebiT ufro mokrZalebuli aris. ruseTis mcdeloba daaxloe-
boda dasavleTs sakuTar pirobebze - warumatebeli aRmoCnda,
ruseTi putinis Semdeg
80
xolo aSS-sa da evrokavSiris pirobebze - miuRebeli. urTierTo-
bebi aSS-sTan da evropis qveynebis umetesobasTan, iseve rogorc
ruseTis zogierT mezobelTan sagrZnoblad gauaresda, CineTTan
urTierTobebSi umTavres Sedegs sazRvris Sesaxeb SeTanxmebis miR-
weva warmoadgens, xolo dsT-is wevri qveynebi ufro daSordnen
mas, vidre dauaxlovdnen. Tumca, es yvelaferi jerjerobiT nak-
lebad adardebs ruseTis xelisuflebis im warmomadgenlebs,
romelTac miaCniaT, rom ruseTis namdvili megobrebi - mxolod
misi armia da floti, navTobi da gazi arian. miuxedavad amisa,
zRvari mkacr konkurenciasa da konfrontacias Soris - romelze-
dac amJamad ruseTi imyofeba - sifrifana da TiTqmis SeumCneveli
aris da am zRvarze TamaSi mxolod didostatebs Tu SeuZliaT.
dRemde ruseTis sagareo politikuri saqmianobis erTaderTi
ganmsazRvreli misi prezidenti iyo. vladimir putinis pirovnebam
didi daRi daasva ruseTis saerTaSoriso qcevas. putini miCveulia
ZiriTadad samTavrobo informaciisa da analizis ndobas da
politikis, rogorc specoperaciaTa seriis, gatarebas. ruseTis
prezidentma sakmaod swrafad aiTvisa pirovnuli diplomatia da
yovelTvis cdilobda kolegebTan pirdapiri ormxrivi urTier-
Tobebis damyarebas, rasac xSirad warmatebiT arTmevda Tavs. sxva
`oficialuri pirebi~ ZiriTadad mis TanaSemweebs an kurierebs
warmoadgendnen. sagareo saqmeTa saministros, sakanonmdeblo
organos, prezidentis administraciis da uSiSroebis sabWos
roli sagareo politikis gatarebasa da miT umetes mis formire-
baSi Tavad putinis fonze sagrZnoblad Semcirda.
aRniSnuli faqtorebis Sedegi saxezea - sagareo politikaSi
kremli sakuTar Tavs imaze gacilebiT metis uflebas aZlevs, vi-
dre es ramdenime wlis win xdeboda. mas aRar eSinia ucxoeli kred-
itorebis, vinaidan ukve gaistumra isini. mas aRar eSinia kapital-
is bazrebis dakargvis, vinaidan investorebi rigSi dganan rusu-
li kompaniebis aqciebis SesaZenad, fulis sasesxeblad da er-
Toblivi biznesis dasawyebad.
represiebs qveynis SigniT ruseTi Tan urTavs agresias saerTa-
Soriso arenaze. ruseTma SeaCera iaraRis kontrolis saerTa-
Soriso xelSekrulebebSi monawileoba da agzavnis sakuTar TviT-
mfrinavebs nato-s wevri qveynebis sahaero sivrceebTan patru-
lirebisTvis ara marto mezobel qveynebTan (estoneTi), aramed
gacilebiT ufro Sorsac (didi britaneTi). ruseTma gaaxmovana
daskvna
81
ambiciuri gadaiaraRebis gegma, xmelTaSua zRvaSi da CrdiloeT
yinulovan okeaneSi sakuTari samxedro flotis ganTavsebis CaTv-
liT. igi daubrunda birTvuli iaraRiT aRWurvili strategiuli
bombdamSenebis SenaerTis mudmivad haerSi yofnis praqtikas,
romelic sabWoTa kavSiris dros gamoiyeneboda. ruseTi imuqre-
ba, rom kvlav daumiznebs sakuTar birTvul raketebs evropul
qveynebs.
kulisebs miRma ruseTi kidev ufro agresiulad moqmedebs. or-
ganizaciebSi rogorebic arian gaero-s ganviTarebis programa
(UNDP), euTo (OSCE) da evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviTareb-
is banki (EBRD) ruseTi aferxebs maTTvis miuRebel qveynebSi gan-
saxorcielebel proeqtebs. ruseTis sagareo dazvervis sajaSuSo
saqmianobam civi omis piksac ki gadaaWarba.
Tumca, miuxedavad yvela am nabijisa, safrTxe realurad sxva-
gan imaleba. ruseTis SeiaraRebs jer kidev ar warmoadgens an-
gariSgasawev safrTxes, xolo birTvuli arsenali mxolod
fsiqologiur faqtorad Tu gamodgeba. axali iaraRi, romelsac
ruseTi XXI saukunis pirvel dekadaSi iyenebda, iyo fuli, bune-
brivi resursebi, diplomatia da propaganda.
dReisTvis arsebuli sabrZolo xazebi ukve sakmaod mkafiod
gamoikveTa: erTi mxriv eseni arian aSS, britaneTi da ramdenime
evropuli qveyana, ZiriTadad aRmosavleT evropidan, romlebic
cdiloben daupirispirdnen ruseTs; meore mxriv kremlis mokav-
Sireebi, rogorebic arian siria, venesuela, irani da belarusiis
an tajikeTis msgavsi yofili sabWoTa qveynebi. ruseTi agreTve
poziciebs iziarebs CineTTanac, romelTanac dakavSirebulia
mzardi mniSvnelobis aliansiT - Sanxais TanamSromlobis orga-
nizaciiT. am or dapirispirebul mxares Soris arian qveynebi, ma-
galiTad, germania, safrangeTi da italia, romlebic cdiloben
mWidro biznes-kavSirebi SeinarCunon ruseTTan, imedi aqvT ra, rom
moaxerxeben politikuri distanciis dacvas.
prezidentobis rva wlis ganmavlobaSi putinis sagareo poli-
tikis Sefasebisas, eqspertTa erTi nawili mas axali civi `omis
dasawyisad~ afasebs, sxvebi `civ mSvidobaze~ saubroben, Tumca,
naTelia, rom ar gamarTlda 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisis optimist-
Ta prognozebi ruseTis dasavlur Rirebulebebze gadasvlasa da
civilizebul samyaroSi integrirebaze. ruseTis xelisuflebaSi
mosulma dajgufebam, Tanmimdevrulad daiwyo qveyanaSi Zalau-
ruseTi putinis Semdeg
82
flebis konsolidacia da qveynis strategiuli sferoebis rena-
cionalizacia. maT daiwyes sabWoTa tipis Zlieri avtoritaruli
saxelmwifos mSenebloba, sabWoTa ekonomikisa da ideologiis
gareSe.
Tu es dajgufeba warmatebas miaRwevs, dasavleTs da mTel msof-
lios mouwevs kidev ufro arademokratiul, damajerebel da agre-
siul ruseTTan dapirispireba saerTaSoriso asparezze. msgavsi
ruseTi savaraudod uars ityvis qveynis SigniT demokratiuli
normebisadmi moCvenebiT erTgulebaze da saerTaSoriso sakiTx-
ebSi dasavleTis sando partniorobis iluziebze. igi kidev ufro
Riad daiwyebs mezoblebis daSantaJebas `energetikuli xelketis~
gamoyenebiT. kremli ganagrZobs ruseTis sazRvrebTan axlos,
saqarTvelosa da ukrainaSi demokratiuli reformebis xelis
SeSlas da winaaRmdegobas gauwevs amgvar liberalizacias mTel
sabWoTa sivrceSi.
Tumca, imisTvis, rom ganagrZos rva wlis win dawyebuli saqme,
`koleqtiurma putinma~, pirvel rigSi, unda uzrunvelyos 2008
wlis saprezidento arCevnebis Semdeg Zalauflebis SenarCuneba.
es niSnavs elitis erTianobis SenarCunebas, mis wevrebs Soris pi-
radi, politikuri da komerciuli konfliqtebis marTvas da rome-
lime konkretuli dajgufebis zedmetad gaZlierebis ardaSvebas.
putinisTvis es niSnavs delikaturi balansis dacvas - imas, rasac
igi sakuTari prezidentobis periodSi yovelTvis brwyinvaled
arTmevda Tavs.
vladimir putinis memkvidreoba imsaxurebs seriozul Seswav-
las da miukerZoebel analizs, Tumca amis gakeTeba dRes rTulia.
miuxedavad formalurad prezidentis Tanamdebobis datovebisa,
premier-ministris Tanamdebobazec igi kvlav rCeba qveyanaSi yve-
laze gavlenian politikosad. ruseTSi xelisuflebis cvlilebis
Semdeg gasuli mcire dro adasturebs, rom putini kvlav erT-
pirovnulad ganagrZobs qveynis sagareo da usafrTxoebis poli-
tikis marTvas, maSin rodesac axal prezidents mxolod qveynis
socialuri da ekonomikuri politikis ganviTarebaze uwevs zrun-
va. sakmao dro unda gavides, vidre putinis mxardamWerebis Zlieri
enTuziazmi da misi mowinaaRmdegeebis Zlieri ukmayofileba
Cacxreba. mxolod amis Semdeg gaxdeba SesaZlebeli putinis epo-
qis miukerZoeblad da zustad gaanalizeba.
qveyana romelsac putini Tavis memkvidres, dimitri medvedevs
daskvna
83
`gadascems~, sagrZnoblad gansxvavdeba imisgan, romelic Tavad
miiRo boris elcinisgan. prezidentis rangSi putinis miRwevebis
Sefasebisas Sedegebi SesaZloa gansxvavebuli iyos, Tumca aris
erTi ram, rac man udavod SesaniSnavad moaxerxa - man Seqmna qvey-
nis saSinao da sagareo warmatebulobis STabeWdileba. es warmate-
bulobis gancda gamomdinareobs ara mxolod yovlismomcveli
samTavrobo propagandisgan, aramed rusebis survilisganac gad-
alaxon civ omSi damarcxebis gamo gaCenili kompleqsi. mxolod
mas Semdeg, rac warmatebulobis gancdis es emociuri safuZveli
dakargavs Tavis mniSvnelobas, SesaZlebeli gaxdeba putinis sa-
gareo politikuri memkvidreobis ufro miukerZoeblad Sefase-
ba. kerZod, gaxdeba naTeli, Tu romeli Sansebi gauSva ruseTis
meore prezidentma xelidan, ras miaRwia man sinamdvileSi da ris
miRweva ver SeZlo misgan damoukidebeli mizezebis gamo.
ruseTi putinis Semdeg
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Summary
Putin's Foreign Policy
By Ioseb Toroshelidze
The ascendance of Vladimir Putin as a President of Russian Fed-
eration in 2000 has brought a dramatic change in the development of
Russian statehood and subsequently in the formation of country's
foreign policy. Taking over the power in Russia by "Siloviki", former
employees of the special services, has changed Russian foreign pol-
icy towards aspiration for re-establishment of strong and indepen-
dent role of Russia once played by the former Soviet Union.
The book's first three chapters review the three main schools
established in Russian foreign policy thinking, describe most impor-
tant internal factors defining Russian foreign policy and explains
Russia's domestic and foreign policies before Putin. Following three
chapters will analyze Putin's foreign policy dividing it into three phas-
es - 1. The phase of "Concentration" and domestic strategic and
institutional consolidation; 2. The phase of building "Liberal Empire";
and 3. The phase of "introducing concept of "Sovereign Democra-
cy". The last chapter briefly reviews Putin's foreign policy during last
eight years and analyzes it's results.
bTkk-s saerTaSoriso
politikis kvlevebis seria
buferuli saxelmwifoebi
Tornike TurmaniZe, 2006.
rusuli sagareo politikuri
azrovneba postsabWoTa periodSi
erekle uruSaZe, 2006.
gadawyvetilebis miReba sust saxelmwifoSi
revaz baxtaZe, 2007.
ZalTa wonasworoba Tu safrTxis wonasworoba?
aliansebi samxreT kavkasiaSi.
giorgi gvalia, 2008.