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Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted N=400 landline and cellphone interviews with likely November 2014 voters

in KS-2,
October 3-6, 2014. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned based on expected voter turnout. Expected
margin of sampling error is ±4.9% with a 95% confidence level and higher for subgroups.




October 7, 2014

To: Interested Parties
Fr: Brian Stryker
Re: Kansas CD-2 polling results

The 2
nd
CD continues to move towards Margie Wakefield. She’s down just five points (43% Wakefield /
48% Jenkins), the same as the poll’s margin of error. Voters are responding well to Margie, who’s
quadrupled her favorable rating from our first poll. For Lynn Jenkins it’s the opposite: despite voters
seeing weeks of TV ads from Jenkins, Jenkins’ job rating and popularity are stuck.

Wakefield still has a lot of votes to gain by increasing her name ID, which is only at 38%. She’s also got
the wind at her back from the top of the ticket—both Paul Davis (52% Davis / 41% Brownback) and Greg
Orman (49% Orman / 40% Roberts) are convincingly beating their Republican opponents. Wakefield
has put herself in a position to win and is in a strong spot for the home stretch.

• On balance, voters think Jenkins is not doing a good job. By a five-point margin, voters rate the
job Jenkins is doing negatively (41% positive / 46% negative). Her overall rating includes a deeply
negative job rating among Independents (22% positive / 60% negative).

• Brownback and Roberts are a drag on Jenkins. Both of them trail by big margins in the district,
Brownback by 11 points (52% Davis / 41% Brownback) and Roberts by 9 points (49% Orman / 40%
Roberts). Given the district’s more Democratic posture than the state overall, competitive statewide
contests mean Republicans are losing big in the 2
nd
CD.

• Wakefield has improved her standing, and there’s more vote to get by continuing to improve
her name ID. Since last year, Margie’s favorable rating has quadrupled. Last October her name ID
was only 13% (7% favorable / 5% unfavorable); now it’s 38% (28% favorable / 10% unfavorable).
And by improving her name ID further, she will move votes towards her. She wins voters who know
both candidates by 35 points (65% Wakefield / 32% Jenkins).


• We are within striking distance due to our dominance among the middle of the electorate. In
this district, Republicans will always outnumber Democrats, and Margie needs to win Independents
to win the election. We’re doing that: Margie has a 23-point lead among self-identified Independents
(55% Wakefield / 32% Jenkins). She also has an 11-point lead (43% Wakefield / 32% Jenkins)
among people who are undecided in a race for Congress between two unnamed candidates.


• Margie’s communications are working; Jenkins’ are not. Voters who have seen Margie
Wakefield’s TV ads are heavily positive towards her (51% favorable / 15% unfavorable). Voters who
have seen Lynn Jenkins’ TV ads are net negative towards her (44% favorable / 46% unfavorable),
with more voters who have seen the ads being very unfavorable towards her (33%) than very
favorable (24%). If Wakefield’s campaign has the resources to continue to introduce her to voters,
her popularity and vote share are likely to keep growing.