A P R I L 1 3 , 2 0 1 3 Iran opens new uranium mines and upgrader 2 Netherlands: Next economy to crack? 4 Thatcher right about nearly everything 5 Does America feel like it is in a depression? 10 Your kids dont actually belong to you! 11 BY BRAD MACDONALD see GOLD page 12 J Us1 wui it appeared the news cycle had moved on from Cyprus, the island nation came splashing back yester- day with news from the European Commission: Nicosia will be made to sell around three quarters, or oo million (Uss,.: million), of its excess gold reserves. (Excess? Who has too much gold:) Whats the big deal? ask some. When a person or nation is in a nancial pinch, assets have to be liquidated. True. But with Cyprus its not that simple. From the out- set of this crisis, Cyprus has not been in control of its own destiny. Sure, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades was in on most, though apparently not all, of the discussions. Cypruss parliament voted on this and that, and ultimately agreed to the bailout agreement. But it was all smoke and mirrors. In the end, Cyprus was compelled to agree to a ruinous bailout package created and prescribed by Germany in consort with the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (icn) and the International Monetary Fund (imv). Now we learn from the troika that as part of the bailout agreement, Cyprus will have to sell the majority of its gold. Te important point to note is that this decision was ef- fectively made by Germany and its icn/EC/imv allies, .u o1 CvvvUs. Germany Snatches Gold From Cyprus APRIL 13, 2013 2 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY MIDDLE EAST The U.S. Struggles for Inuence in Iraq STRATFOR | April 10 A vUniiciziu eort by Iraqi of- cials to intercept Iranian planes bound for Damascus appears to be an act by Baghdad and Tehran to ease U.S. pressure on the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Iraqs alleged plane interceptions actually reveal a much tighter rela- tionship between Baghdad and Tehran as the Syrian conict continues to widen ethnic and sectarian ssures in the region. Te United States has been press- ing Baghdad to stop allowing Ira- nian aircraf to pass through Iraqi airspace en route to Syria. Afer the Iraqi government pledged to do more random searches to intercept weapons heading for Syria by land and air, Iraqi ocials claimed that they forced two Iranian cargo planes to land this week at Baghdad International Airport. Te Iranian cargo plane intercepted April8 was allegedly carrying human- itarian supplies. Iraqi ocials did not elaborate on the contents of the plane intercepted April . Tough Iran is now expressing outrage at the supposed interceptions, the Iraqi government was likely closely coordinating with Iranian authorities. Conveniently, the interceptions that Baghdad has publicized so far reveal only humanitarian supplies destined for Syria. However, it is an open secret that Iran has been funneling weapons and ghters in civilian aircraf primar- ily through Iraq to reinforce the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Te al-Maliki government is not simply doing its Iranian allies a favor in allowing Iraqi territory to be used for this purpose. Te Shiite government in Baghdad is care- fully manipulating the Sunni political situation in Iraq to prevent the return of a Sunni nationalist insurgency that could threaten the Shias hold on Baghdad. Te more the Syrian conict intensies, the more reason Baghdad has to align itself more closely with its sectarian allies in Iran and Syria to keep the Sunni rebellion contained. Al-Maliki also understands that the United States has a strategic interest in maintaining a foothold in Baghdad to balance against Iran, and he can exploit that interest to try to secure economic and military aid from Washington. But even the assets the United States currently has in Iraq and increased aid from Washington cannot compete eectively with Irans extensive politi- cal, intelligence, security, religious and business relationships in Iraq. Iran Opens New Uranium Mines THE TELEGRAPH | April 9 T ui coU1vv opened the Saghand : and : uranium mines in the central city of Yazd and the Shahid Rezaeine- jad yellow cake factory, capable of M iuuii E.s1 expert Matthew Levitt told iici1 in an exclusive interview that the recent conviction of a Hezbollah member in Cyprus on terrorism charges is extremely important because the trial outed and exposed Hezbollah. Levitt explained that because the trial was pub- lic and included details on Hezbollahs activities through- out Europe, it will pressure Europe to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. Tat designation would allow European countries to proactively monitor Hezbollah, rather than waiting to respond to a Hezbollah attack, which would be a minute too late, said Levitt. Dr. Matthew Levitt served as a counterterrorism intelli- gence analyst at the Federal Bureau of Investigation before becoming deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. According to Levitt, during the trial in Cyprus, Hos- sam Taleb Yaccoub admitted conducting surveillance of civilians in the country for Hezbollah, although he denied any terrorist activities. Before he went to Cyprus, he said he was sent by Hezbollah as a courier to Turkey, France and the Netherlands, demonstrating the global reach of the group. He also said, I belong to Hezbollah, I was just carrying out surveillance on the Jews, we do this all over the world. Levitt said the European footprint in this case is huge and that because its ndings are public, it will put extreme pressure on the EU to expand its eorts against Hezbollah. Europe, unlike the United States and other countries, has not designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Tis allows the group to operate oces and openly conduct fundraising and other operations in European states. Levitt noted that the trial, combined with increasing criminal activity by Hezbollah, involvement in Syria, and actions to destabilize Lebanon puts Hezbollah in the crosshairs. Levitt explained that Iran and Hezbollah have a strate- gic partnership, and that Iran has tasked Hezbollah with targeting Israeli tourists worldwide. Tis, said Levitt, is not necessarily in Lebanese interests, but is because of the rela- tionship with Iran. Te fact that Iran is a strategic partner of Hezbollah trumps its other interests, says Levitt. Hezbollah has capabilities that span the globe, according to Levitt, and has a presence on almost every continent. Cyprus Outs Hezbollah, Pressures EU LIGNET | April 5 APRIL 13, 2013 3 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY producing oo tonnes of yellow cake annually, to mark Irans National Nuclear Technology Day, ocial news agency iv. said. Te two mines in the city of Sa- ghand in central Iran operate :,:,o feet underground, and are within ,, miles of the yellowcake production facility in the city of Ardakan, in Yazd prov- ince, state television said. Yellowcake is the impure state of uranium oxide later used in enrich- ment facilities. Te announcements, on the occa- sion of Irans national Atomic Energy Technology day, come shortly afer talks between Iran and six world powers on Tehrans nuclear ambitions failed to achieve a breakthrough. Iran enriches uranium to both ,., and :o percent levels in its Natanz and Fordo enrichment facilities. Uranium puried at high levels can be used in a nuclear weapon. Leaving Corruptistan SPIEGEL ONLINE | April 6 G ivi 1u.1 friendship between Hamid Karzai and the Americans has long been a thing of the past, the negotiations are dogged. For weeks now, the Afghan president has been haggling with the United States over its troop withdrawal. Karzai is putting the Americans on notice that, this time, it is the Afghans who are calling the shots. For example, Karzai recently ordered elite U.S. soldiers to pull out as quickly as possible from Wardak Province, an important gateway for insurgents headed toward Kabul. Te soldiers have been accused of abusing villagers, but the accusation has yet to be substantiated. Just how poisoned relations have become can be seen particularly clearly in the way Afghans reacted to an order handed down by General James Mattis . In January, Mattis placed Kam Air, a private airline, on the blacklist of companies no longer allowed to receive contracts from the U.S. military. Te Americans suspect Kam Air of having smuggled bulk quantities of narcotics to Central Asia on passenger ights. In an unusually harshly formulated ocial communiqu to U.S. Ambas- sador James Cunningham, Afghans Foreign Ministry demanded that all documents related to the Kam Air case be made available to the Afghan government immediately. President Karzais oce has even threatened to le a compensation/damages suit against the U.S. military if no concrete proof of the allegations is supplied. Te Afghans fervent reaction is hard to comprehend, especially given the fact that Kam Air is a completely private company in which the state has no nancial stake. Afghanistan produces 8o percent of all the opium consumed worldwide, and most of those in power prot from its trade. Nevertheless, not a single one of the top-level drug barons with ties to Karzais network has yet to be convicted. Is that what a successful mission looks like: Of course, quips one Western diplomat. We declare victory, and then we leave. TW I N B R I E F n Dividing the Middle East Dubais police chief lashed out at the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) last week, shedding more light on the growing friction between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in the region. Te MB is banned in the United Arab Emirates (U.i), and is seen with a great deal of suspicion by many of the Sunni- ruled Gulf states. A string of arrests in the U.i has done nothing to heal the divide. Ninety-four members of the protest group al Islah have been arrested on charges of attempting to overthrow the government. Te al Islah movement is suspected by U.i ocials to be funded by the MB in Egypt, supporting the belief that the Brotherhood has a broader plan for the region. Mr. Khalfan shares the concern of many Sunni leaders who see that Iran has beneted from each toppled government so far. Although Egypt is overwhelmingly Sunni, it essentially fell to Iran in :o:: when the MB took control. Now the Gulf states are working to try to prevent that from happening with other nations. In December :o::, the Gulf Cooperation Council released a statement attacking the continuing Iranian interference in the aairs of the Gulf Cooperation Councils states. Since the U.S. is washing its hands of the Middle East and focusing more on eastern Asia, watch for the Gulf states to look more and more toward Europe for backing. EUROPE Greeces War Claims Against Germany THE TELEGRAPH | April 9 P vimiiv A1ois Samaras held a special meeting with the foreign minister Dimitris Avramopoulos and other key ocials this morning to limit the diplomatic damage from the 8o-page report. Te documentstamped Aporito, or secretwas drafed by a panel of experts appointed by the Greek nance ministry and delivered to of- cials last month. Te alleged claim against Germany reaches a grand total of :o: billion (Uss::: billion), including :o8 bil- lion (s:: billion) for rebuilding the countrys infrastructure afer the Nazi occupation from :: to :. Tis is 8o percent of Greek cuv. Te report was rst leaked to the Greek newspaper To Vima over the weekend in a story titled What Ger- many Owes Us. Te panel concluded that Ath- ens has legitimate grounds to press claims. Greece never received any APRIL 13, 2013 4 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY compensation, either for the loans it was forced to provide to Germany or for the damages it suered during the war, it said. Te newspaper said the issue has detonated like a bomb at a critical juncture when Greece is under intense pressure from creditors. Te govern- ment should publish all the ndings and determine its position on this sensitive issue, it said. Tere has long been a vociferous lobby calling for war reparations from Germany, with the so-called National Council calling for as much ,oo billion (so,.8 billion) to cover stolen art work and the loss of ,o percent of economic output over almost four years. Greece has already enjoyed con- siderable debt relief, though at the expense of private pension funds, insurers, and banks, rather than at the expense [of] the German state or other eurozone countries. Netherlands, the Next Chip to Fall? Mike Shedlock, BULLION MANAGEMENT GROUP | April 10 T ui Ni1uivi.us, Berlins most important ally in pushing for greater budgetary discipline in Europe, has fallen into an economic crisis itself, with huge debts and a burst real estate bubble. Te Netherlands is facing the kind of real estate crisis as the U.S. and Spain did. Dutch banks have pumped billions in loans into the private and commercial real estate market since the :os, without ensuring that bor- rowers had sucient collateral. Private homebuyers could eas- ily nd banks to nance more than :oopercent of a propertys price. Instead of paying o the loans, bor- rowers put some of the money into an investment fund, hoping for a prot. Te money was to be used to pay o the loan, at least in part. But it quickly be- came customary to expect the value of a given property to increase substantially. No nation in the eurozone is as deeply indebted as the Netherlands, where banks have a total of about o,obillion (s8,:.: billion) in mort- gage loans on their books. Consumer debt amounts to about :,o percent of available income. By comparison, in :o:: even the Spaniards only reached a debt ratio of ::,percent. Te Netherlands is still one of the most competitive countries in the EU, but the bursting real estate bubble threatens to take down the entire C o1vovivsv w.s but a stimulus for her to stick even more strongly to her moral and political convic- tions.Margaret Tatchercame from a family that was embedded in the old traditions and the heritage that once made BritainGreatBritain. In the latter half of the :oth cen- tury, the rise of Margaret Tatcher in the political ranks of the Conservatives in Britain primed her for her role as a three-term prime minister. Between the time of her election in :, and her forced resignation from the oce of prime minister in :o, Mrs. Tatchers economic policies transformed the British economy from its :,os state of listless drifing to one of the strongest of global economies. .1oSecretary General Anders Fog Rasmussen summed up Mrs. Tatchers leadership of Britain in the following terms: Baroness Tatcher was an extraordinary politi- cian who was a staunch defender of freedom, a powerful advocate of.1oand the transatlantic bond. She strongly supported.1ovalues and principles, believed in a strong defense and played a leading role in ending the Cold War. Troughout her tenure as British prime minister, Margaret Tatcher stood on principle and showed great courage, vi- sion and leadership (.1opress release, April 8). In August :8:, Herbert Armstrong met Mrs. Tatcher at :o Downing Street, the prime ministerial residence. Teir parting comments to each other following a half-hour meeting were reiterated by Mr. Armstrong in an address to his supporters in Pasadena, California, on Nov.:,,:8:. Commenting on that meeting, Mr. Armstrong went on to reiterate, As we were leaving, she said, Well, theres one thing. Our two countries, the United States and Britain, must absolutely continue to hang together. And I said, If they dont hang together, theyll probably hang separately. Sometime afer Britain had signed up to the Maastricht Treaty that was to chart the course to dominance by Ger- many in Europe, Mrs. Tatcher gave a very clear explana- tion of her reaction. At a meeting with Francois Mitterrand, George H.W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev in :,, Mrs. Tatcher de- clared: I was opposed to German unication from early on for the obvious reasons. To unifyGermanywould make her the dominant nation in the European community. Tey are powerful, and they are ecient. Tatcher then said, All this is atly contrary to all my ide- als. Some people say you have to anchor Germany to Europe to stop these features from coming out again. Well, you have not anchored Germany to Europe, but Europe to a newly dominant Germany. Tat is why I call it a German Europe. Te Iron Lady was right. With her dies the nal slice of real, courageous British political leadership. Tat quality of Britishness will not returnever!Your Bible says so. In fact, it is destined to be replaced by a far better qualitythe perfect character of the very One who gave Britain its greatness from the begin- ninghaving no connection with earthly politics. Follow Ron Fraser: Twitter Margaret ThatcherExit the Iron Lady RON FRASER Related: Germanys Conquest of the Balkans APRIL 13, 2013 5 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY economy. Unemployment is rising, consumption is down and growth has come to a standstill. Despite tough austerity measures, this year the government will violate the EU decit criterion, which forbids new borrow- ing of more than , percent of cuv. Its a heavy burden, especially for Dutch Finance Minister Dijsselbloem, who is also the new head of the Euro Group, and is now both a watchdog for the monetary union and a crisis candidate. France, Germany: Tense Allies STRATFOR | April 5 T wo vici1 events attest to the growing political tension between Germany and France. On April, French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said France would need more time to cut its decit. Ten on April ,, French President Franois Hollande received Peer Steinbrck, a member of Germanys main opposi- tion Social Democratic Party and a candidate for chancellor. Some consid- er the invitation an aront to current German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Hollandes leadership status in Europe has weakened as Merkels has strengthened. In this context, he is trying to use the German election campaign and ties to the Social Dem- ocratic Party to weaken Berlins push for austerity. France and Germany will likely reach an agreement on Frances decit; Paris and Berlin want to pre- serve their alliance, and Berlin does not want to see Paris build a wider opposition base. However, considering the popularity of Merkels approach to the European crisis within Germany and skepticism towards bailouts, fun- damental tensions will remain. While Steinbrck used his meeting with Hollande to promote international support for his candidacy, his strategy is not without risks. Polls show that most Germans support Merkels tough stance on scal discipline in the euro- zone. Steinbrck knows that capitulat- ing to French demands will not endear him to German voters. An important reason for Merkels popularity is the countrys approval of her crisis man- agement, which calls for structural reforms and austerity in peripheral countries and opposes Germanys con- tinued nancing of bailouts. [A]fer the elections in Septem- ber, the German government likely will continue to clash with Paris; the European Unions shortcomings are structural, so dierences between Ber- lin and Paris will remain regardless of political leadership. An Institution Where Facts Are Secondary THE TELEGRAPH | April 8 T ui HUc.vi. prime minister has poured scorn on the European par- liament describing it as place where I 1 is still terribly hard for those who opposed her to admit it, but Margaret Tatcher was right about most things. She was right that Britains trade unions had become much too powerful. She was right that nationalized indus- tries had to be privatized. She was right that ination has monetary causes. She was also mostly right about foreign policy. She was right to drive the forces of Argentinas junta out of the Falklands and she was right to exhort a wobbly George H.W. Bush to mete out the same treatment to Saddam Hus- seins forces in Kuwait. Above all, however, Tatcher was right about Europe. She was right to push Europe in the direction of real free trade by backing and signing the Single European Act of :8o. Yet she was equally right to oppose the idea of a single European currency. Consistently, Tatchers skeptics took the side of those, such as Nigel Lawson, Georey Howe and John Major, who favored shadowing the Deutschmark and then pegging the sterling-mark exchange rate. Having been dragged kicking and screaming into the ivm in October :o, Tatcher denounced the Delors plan for a federal Europe with a deant No! No! No!one no apiece for the European parliament, government and sen- ate he envisaged. Just weeks later, deserted by her cabinet colleagues, she was forced to resign. It has long been conventional wisdom that Tatcher was wrong about one thing above all. She was wrong, so the argument goes, to oppose German reunication. Indeed, most recent accounts of the events of :8-:o portray her as a kind of female Basil Fawlty, stuck in some kind of Second World War time-warp. Yet future historians may look back on negative reaction to German reunication with more sympathy than most commentators felt at the time. In an internal memorandum, written on Feb. :, :o, Tatcher oered a shrewd commen- tary on West Germanys position that reunication would pose no strategic threat if it was accompanied by increased European integration. Te problems will not be overcome by strengthening the E[uropean] C[ommunity], she wrote. Germanys ambitions would then become the dominant and active factor. Tere are rather a large number of people in southern Europe todayand perhaps also in Pariswho would ac- knowledge that here, too, Tatcher was right. Only last year the Italian prime minister complained of being treated as if Italy was in a semicolonial relationship with Germany. Margaret Thatcher: Right About Nearly Everything FINANCIAL TIMES | April 8 Related: Germany and the Holy Roman Empire APRIL 13, 2013 6 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY F ivs1 1uiv purloin the savings and bank deposits in Laiki and the Bank of Cyprus, including the working funds of the University of Cyprus, and thousands of small rms hanging on by their ngertips. Ten they seize three quarters of the countrys gold reserves, making it ever harder for Cyprus to extricate itself from imU at a later date. Te people of Cyprus rst learned about this from a Reuters leak of the working documents for the Eurogroup meeting on Friday. Tis seemed to catch the central bank by surprise. Ocials said they knew nothing about it. So who in fact made this decision: Cypriots are learning what it means to be a member of a monetary union when things go badly wrong. It is an interesting question why Cyprus has been treated more harshly than Greece, given that the eurozone itself set o the downward spiral by imposing de facto losses of ,, percent on Greek sovereign debt held by Cypriot banks. And, furthermore, given that these banks were pressured into buying many of those Greek bonds in the rst place by the EU authorities, when it suited the Eurogroup. You could say that this is condign punishment for the failure of Cyprus to deliver on its side of the bargain on the :oo Annan Plan to reunite the island, divided by the At- tila Line since the Turkish invasion in :,. Greek Cypriots gained admission to the EU on the basis of a gentlemans agreement, then resiled from the accord. President Tassos Papadopoulis later deployed the resources of the state to secure a No in the referendum on the Greek side of the island. No wonder the EU is disgusted. But there again, Greece behaved just as badly. It threatened to block Polish accession to the EU unless a still-divided Cyprus was admitted, much to the fury of Berlin. Te workhouse treatment of Cyprus is nevertheless remarkable. Te creditor powers walked away from their fresh pledges for an imU banking union by whipping up largely bogus allegations of Russian money-laundering in Nicosia. A Council of Europe by a British prosecutor has failed to validate the claims. Te EU authorities have gone to great lengths to insist that Cyprus is a special case, but I fail to see what is spe- cial about it. Tere is far more Russian moneylaundered or otherwisein the Netherlands. Te banking centers of Ireland and Malta are just as large as a share of cuv. Luxembourgs banking center is at least four times more leveraged to the economy. It should be clear by now that the solemn pledges of imU leaders are expendable. Tey change their mind whenever its suits them, and whenever the internal politics of their own countries demands. Cyprus may not be a template but it is clearly a warn- ing to any other imU country that needs help from now on. Te creditor powers will go to extraordinary lengths to avoid sharing the costs. We now learn that one of those lengths is to seize gold reserves. So what will happen as Portugals economy slides deeper into its contractionary vortex, and its decits remain stubbornly stuck near o percent of cuv despite the scal cuts, and its public debt hits :: percent of cuv this year: Portugal holds ,8: tonnes of gold, the :th largest hold- ing in the world, and more than either Britain or Spain. So will the troika order Portugal to hand over these reserves if the country requires a second bailout, as deemed likely by a great number of analysts in the city: EMU Plot for Cypruss Gold Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, TELEGRAPH | April 11 liberal, lef wing and Green mivs bel- low at each other with bulging veins and as an institution where facts are secondary. Hungarians think debate is based on a sober, matter-of-fact, the-other- person-may-be-right logic, but the Eu- ropean Parliament is not a European place, [Viktor] Orban said, during a radio interview. Facts are secondary. Mr. Orbans disparaging remarks on the European parliament come a week before the institution debates the state of democracy in Hungary. Te central European country has faced severe criticism from the EU and other European bodies over a series of contentious laws and changes to the constitution, which, critics claim, undermine democracy. In response, the Hungarian government has mounted an un- abashed defense, accusing the EU of meddling in the aairs of a sovereign state, and lambasting critics over their apparent ignorance of Hungar- ian aairs. Partner Nation Russia GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY | April 8 T ui Givm. chancellor and the Russian president attended yester- days opening of the annual Hannover Industry Trade Fair. Tis year, Russia was the fairs chosen partner nation, a move to help promote German- Russian economic relations. Te German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations an- nounced a German-Russian economic summit to be held today. Since the svu/Green coalition government encouraged the economic coopera- tion :o years ago, the trade volume has grown from :,.: billion (s:.8 bil- lion) in :8 to more than 8o billion (s:o., billion) in :o::to Germanys advantage. Germany is ensuring its access to energy resources from Russias huge deposits, while also tapping into the lucrative market for the German export-oriented industry. Te Ger- man industry needs this market, since its sales to the southern eurozone are tapering o, due to the economic crisis. Berlin is also seeking to boost this cooperation because of Chinas growing inuence in Russia. Moscow and Beijing are not only planning to expand their bilateral APRIL 13, 2013 7 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY economic relations, they are also increasing their political and mili- tary cooperationat the expense of Western hegemony, as seen from the German perspective. TW I N B R I E F n Bungled bailout costs Cyprus billions Te total amount of money needed to save Cyprus has increased by around o billion (Uss,.8 billion), since the rst bailout agreement was announced on March :o. A leaked European Commission document, dated April , shows that the total cost of the bailout will now be :, billion (s,o billion). Back in March, the total bailout was :, billion. Europe will still contribute only :o billion (s:,billion), but Cy- pruss portion has more than doubled, from , billion to :, billion. Tats the equivalent of about a third of Cypruss entire annual economic output. Tese kind of gures mean that Cyprus will probably need another bailout, or at least an extension on the current pro- gram. It will keep Cyprus subservient to Germany for years to come. n Former German chancellor: I acted like a dictator Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl admitted that most in Germany did not want the euro, and that he acted like a dictator. He made the remarks in an interview in :oo: conducted by journalist Jens Peter Paul for his doc- trate thesis, which was published several years later and recently been picked up by the media. Kohls motivation, he said, was to avoid war in Europe. Na- tions with a common currency never went to war against each other, he said. A common currency is more than the money you pay with. Kohl chose not to step down in : and let Wolfgang Schuble succeed him as chancellor, as he felt Schuble lacked the experience to persuade the country. Tis is yet further proof that the euro and the EU is an anti-democratic project. n Portugal could be pushed into another bailout Portugals supreme court blocked sev- eral key parts of the countrys austerity budget on April ,, further complicat- ing the countrys eorts to meet its ob- ligations under its bailout package. Te court ruled that the governments cuts to public sector workers pay and pen- sions, as well as unemployment and sickness benets, were illegal because they were a violation of the principle of equality and the principle of fair distribution of the public burden. Te ruling makes it incredibly dicult for Portugal to get its spending under con- trol. A couple of days later, Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho called the nations economic situa- tion a national emergency. A leaked document published by the Financial Times showed that the timetable for when Portugal has to pay back its loans will probably have to be extended by seven years. Te Financial Times wrote that although the document doesnt address it directly, it makes clear that Portugal will have a very hard time avoiding a second bailout. n Jack Lew tries to convince Europe to become like America U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew traveled to Europe on April , to visit with high-prole European Union nancial leaders in an attempt to convince them to cut back on austerity measures and instead focus on growth policies. Mr.Lew faces an uphill battle in convincing his EU counterparts. He met with Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, Jos Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council and German Finance Minis- ter Wolfgang Schuble. Lack of growth in the eurozone is aecting the American economy, and Lew wants to turn it around. Standing in the way of Mr. Lews growth policy, which could be better described as a borrow-and- print-more-money-to-spend policy, are several of Europes most powerful policymakers. Germany has shown little willingness to ease the burdens placed on austerity-enslaved nations such as Greece and Cyprus. Te truth is that the current euro crisis is beingused to drive European integra- tion. Tis is a crisis that EU leaders will not let go to waste. It is allowing them to break taboos to drive forward on the path to a unied European government. Tere is no need for Ger- many to change its economic policies. Chinas Expanding Drone Program STRATFOR | April 9 C ui. is rapidly expanding its re- search into and production, deploy- ments and sales of unmanned aerial vehicles . Te primary role of this growing program is to help Beijing control and monitor disputed territo- ries in the Asia-Pacic region. Beijing has decided to prioritize its drone program for security and eco- nomic reasons. In the security sphere, these machines are very useful for patrolling the East and South China seas, allowing Beijing to maintain a presence in the disputed waters, and play a role in Chinas anti-access/area denial strategy. China is developing multiple types of drones, ranging from high-altitude, long-endurance designs like the U.S. Global Hawk to small, hand-launched designs similar to the U.S. Raven. Te United States and Israel are currently the leaders in this technol- ogy. While Chinas drones are not as advanced, tested or capable of the same ranges, they do allow Beijing to monitor its borders and waters more eectively due to extended loiter time. Tey also help China deter coun- tries from intervening in the area by helping detect and target potential ASIA APRIL 13, 2013 8 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY violators of the area they are trying to deny. Tis is at the heart of the anti- access/area denial strategy and Chinas motivation for devoting resources to the program.Beijing has plans to build :: coastal drone bases by :o:, to increase its ability to survey the region for possible intrusions or threats. TW I N B R I E F n North Koreas strategy of unpredictability A new evaluation of North Koreas nu- clear capability published on Tursday by the Pentagons intelligence branch determined for the rst time, with moderate condence that Pyongyang can build nuclear weapons compact enough to be delivered by a ballistic missile. Also on Tursday, North Korea spouted o a fresh bout of war rhetoric, claiming that it has powerful striking means on standby. Analysts believe it implied another missile launch, and probably of a rocket capable of reach- ing the American territory of Guam. In recent months, North Korea has conducted a rocket launch, carried out an underground nuclear test and threatened a preemptive nuclear strike on the United States and South Korea. Although many in the West are quick to deride North Korea, Pyongyangs seemingly erratic threats are not irra- tional, and the news of its nuclear abili- ties is signicant. Wielding the weapon of unpredictability, North Korean lead- ers are able to rally their population, and they will likely be able to obtain concessions from the international community. So far, the U.S. response to the intensifying belligerence has been surprisingly strong. But until China the only nation with real leverage over the Northreins Pyongyang in, North Korean leaders will likely continue to wield the weapon of unpredictability to rally the people, to obtain more aid and to divert the Wests attention away from stealthier enemies. n Moscow fuming over U.S.-Georgia military drill Around ,,o U.S. Marines and sev- eral hundred Georgian Army troops participated in a month-long military drill in the former Soviet republic that ended last week. According to reports, the exercisecode-named Agile Spirit :o:,infuriated Russia, Geor- gias neighbor to the north. Tese annual events, which our American partners explain as preparation for the Afghan operations, cause con- cern, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich. In :oo8, Moscow launched a separatist movement in Russo-friendly regions in Georgia, which triggered an all-out war between the Georgian army and the Moscow-backed separatists. Russia ended up invading Georgia and wrest- ing the region of South Ossetia from its control, a move which Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry said marked the beginning of a danger- ous new era in history. Regarding the military drill last month, Lukashevich said Georgia is refusing to come to terms with new political realitiesa clear reference to Russias :oo8 inva- sion and conquest. Te U.S. values its alliance with Georgia, not only due to Russias alarming :oo8 invasion, but also because U.S. and .1o troops are scheduled to leave Afghanistan within a year, and are struggling to retain inuence in that resource-rich nation. World powers view Georgia as a key staging locale and transport hub for any future operations in Afghanistan, so they are vying for inuence in the former Soviet republic. Moscows dis- pleasure at the U.S.-Georgia military drills provides evidence that the dan- gers of the new era are intensifying. Russia will increasingly assert itself in Georgia, the Caucasus and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union region as it continues its quest to resurrect the Russian sphere of inuence. AFRICA/LATIN AMERICA Peace Between Ethiopia and Eritrea? THINK AFRICA PRESS | April 10 I 1 u.s been over a decade since talks regarding the demarcation of Eritrea- Ethiopia border stalled, and relations between the two long-standing nemeses deteriorated into an eective cold war. Both sides continue to undermine each others stability, from allegedly supporting armed opposition groups to waging a proxy war in Somalia. At the heart of this crisis is the ruling by the Boundary Commis- sion which was established under the Algiers Agreement, a peace treaty marking the end of two years of hos- tilities. Te Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission was tasked with dening the contested border, and both sides agreed to accept its decision. However, having initially welcomed the ruling in April :oo:, Ethiopia reversed its position a few months later, displeased that Badme, the ashpoint of the war, had been awarded to Eritrea. Eritrea refused to agree to a new commission and negotiations came to a standstill. Tensions remained high and relations remained sour. Recently, there seem to have been improved prospects for peaceful resolution. Te death in August :o:: of Ethiopias long-time leader Meles Zenawiwhose personal rivalry with Eritreas president Isaias Afewerki stoked hostilitieshas raised hopes of a return to the negotiating table. Afer taking oce, Meless successor, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, expressed a willingness to travel to Eritrea to talk with Afewerki without preconditions. Several other issues could also push both parties to end the low-level conict. Afer the Algiers Agreement, both governments sought to settle unnished scores. In the protracted cold war, however, there was a clear winner and loser. Ethiopia managed to seize the status of regional hege- mon, leave Eritrea diplomatically APRIL 13, 2013 9 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY isolated, win the support of major powers such as the U.S., and get UN sanctions imposed on Eritrea. Eritrea, meanwhile, suered economically, lost the upper hand in the legal border battle, and came to be seen as a pariah state, accused of sponsoring regional instability and terrorism. Te regime in Asmara is now in a struggle for its own survival. Its military capability is checked, external pressure remains high, its economic situation is dire, and there appears to be simmer- ing domestic dissent as exhibited by several high-level defections and an army mutiny on January ::. Tis could suggest that Eritrea is more likely to agree to talks TW I N B R I E F n Mexican drug cartels move into Colombia Te decline and fall of Colombias drug gangsonce the undisputed masters of the illicit drug tradehas allowed Mexican cartels to move into the area and gain access to large supplies of cheap Colombian cocaine. In order to bypass the Mexican cartels and regain some of their lost prots, the remaining fragments on the Co- lombian cartels are starting to export more to Europe. Despite this move, however, the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico is swifly becoming the dominant criminal force in Central America. Until the people of the United States get their drug addiction problems un- der control, death and crime will reign throughout the vast area from the Panama Canal to the Arctic Ocean. A s v.v1 of its longstanding policy of building ties with developing countries, China is on course to buy three million hectares of the Amazon rainforest from Ecuador to help it secure access to mineral wealth worldwide. Te relationship between China and Ecuador has been cozy since China began pumping money into Ecuador through nancing infrastructure projects and oil rener- ies in return for mineral resources. Te large amount of money that Ecuador owes China, combined with the rap- idly deteriorating relationship between Ecuador and other foreign oil investors, is forcing the South American country to welcome investment from the Asian giant. China has invested heavily in oil to expand its political and economic might, and to secure access to its growing demand for natural resources. China is nancing Ecua- dors oil reneries and transportation projects in return for oil shipments, with around 8o percent of Ecuadors oil exports currently going to China. It is providing ,o percent of the funding for a new s::.: billion oil renery, Reneria del Pacico, which is expected to process ,oo,ooo barrels of oil per day. Ecuador is interested in securing more Chinese invest- ment in its oil industry and would welcome a winning Chinese bid on its auction of :, oil blocks in the Amazon rainforest containing an estimated :oo million barrels of oil. Ecuadors government is counting on China to invest in oil from the Amazon because of its worsening relation- ship with U.S. oil investors and its indebtedness to China. China, in its continuing attempt to seize mineral resources worldwide to accommodate its growing demand at home, is almost certain to take Ecuador up on the oer. Despite international outcry over the environmental damages, China will go ahead and begin its oil extracting expedition in the Amazon forest. Chinas Amazon Rainforest Energy Grab LIGNET | April 10 ANGLO-AMERICA Targeted Killing Denes War on Terror NEW YORK TIMES | April 7 W ui SUi.im. Abu Ghaith, a son-in-law of Osama bin Laden, was taken into American custody at an airport stopover in Jordan last month, he joined one of the most select groups of the Obama era: high- level terrorist suspects who have been located by the American counterter- rorism juggernaut, and who have not been killed. John O. Brennan, now ci. director, said last year the preference was to use lethal force only when capture was not feasible. Mr. Abu Ghaiths casehe awaits a federal criminal trial in New Yorkis a rare illustration of what Obama ad- ministration ocials have ofen said is their strong preference for capturing terrorists rather than killing them. I have heard it suggested that the Obama administration somehow pre- fers killing al Qaeda members rather than capturing them, said John O. Brennan, in a speech last year when he was the presidents counterterror- ism adviser; he is now the ci. director. Nothing could be further from the truth. Despite Mr. Brennans protesta- tions, an overwhelming reliance on killing terrorism suspects, which began in the administration of George W. Bush, has dened the Obama years. Since Mr. Obama took oce, the ci. and military have killed about ,,ooo people in counterterrorist strikes in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, mostly using drones. Only a handful have been caught and brought to this APRIL 13, 2013 10 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY country; an unknown number have been imprisoned by other countries with intelligence and other support from the United States. Tis policy on targeted killing, according to experts on counterter- rorism inside and outside the govern- ment, is shaped by several factors: the availability of a weapon that does not risk American casualties; the resis- tance of the authorities in Pakistan and Yemen to even brief incursions by American troops; and the decreas- ing urgency of interrogation at a time when the terrorist threat has dimin- ished and the United States has deep intelligence on its enemies. Tough no ocial will publicly acknowledge it, the bottom line is clear: killing is more convenient than capture for both the United States and the foreign countries where the strikes occur. Te drone strikes have become unpopular abroad; in a Pew Research Center poll last year, just :, percent of Pakistanis supported them against leaders of extremist groups. And do- mestic critics have attacked from two dierent directions: Some Republi- cans in Congress accuse Mr. Obama of adopting a de facto kill prefer- ence because he shut down the ci.s overseas prisons and does not want to send more detainees to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Human rights advocates argue that some drone strikes have amounted to extrajudicial killings, the execution without trial of people suspected of being militants whose identities American ocials ofen do not know and who sometimes pose little threat to the United States. Only in the drone era has killing terrorism suspects become routine. In the :8os and :os, counterterror- ism ocers captured several suspects overseas and brought them back to the United States for trial. Americas Continuing Economic Depression MARKET ORACLE | April 2 T uis is not what economic recovery looks like. Tis is, however, what an economic depression looks like: First, the American workforce is far smaller than it was before the :oo8 economic collapse, even though the number of Americans of working age has increased by several millions. Second, the people who are lucky enough to be gainfully employed are earning less. Tird, with far fewer people em- ployed, those who are employed earning less, and the long-term unemployed and underemployed depleting their savings, the number of Americans living in poverty continues to grow. Fourth, with the employed earning less, millions of unemployed and underemployed depleting their sav- ings, and interest rates at record lows, Americans are saving less and less. Finally, the number of Americans dependent on the government for basic survival has grown by the tens of millions. Only two words adequately de- scribe this ve-year period of eroding lifestyle in the United States: economic depression. A Us1v.ii.s .oUcimi1 that it is abandoning the U.S. dollar for trade with China is the latest broad- side in the global currency war. Start- ing April :o, Australia and China will no longer use the U.S. dollar for trade between the two nations. Tis is a signicant announcement and key development for China as it continues its cam- paign to internationalize the yuan and chip away at the dollars role as the worlds reserve currency. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard made the an- nouncement during an ocial visit to Shanghai on Mon- day. She noted that China is now Australias biggest trading partner and that the direct currency trading would be a huge advantage for Australia. She called the currency accord a strategic step forward for Australia as we add to our economic engagement with China. According to usnc bank, more than o percent of small and medium-size Australian businesses that trade with China plan to oer quotes for goods and services in yuan. For China, this is a big accomplishment as it works toward its goal of having about a third of its foreign trade settled in yuan by :o:,. But for the U.S. dollar, it is another hit in a string of hits to its dominance as the global reserve currency. On March :o, China and Brazil agreed to cut out the U.S. dollar for approximately half of their trade. Some s,obillion worth of commerce per year will now be con- ducted in yuan and reals. Americas other major ally in the Pacic announced last year that it would be curtail- ing its use of the dollar too. In June, Japan and China began cutting out the dollar in bilateral trade. Similar dollar exclusion deals have been announced by Russia and China, Russia and Iran, India and Iran, and India and Japan. As more nations challenge the dollars position as reserve currency it will greatly impact living standards in America. Interest rates will skyrocket. Te government may be forced to resort to full-scale money printing to nance its debt. Credit and loan costs will rise, potentially collapsing Americas consumer economy. Ination will destroy the value of peoples savings. And higher levels of unemployment will become a way of life. By jumping ship and swimming to China, Australia may think it will mitigate the worst of the looming dollar war. But eking out strategic partnerships with China comes with a whole set of other risks that are just as deadly. Follow Robert Morley: Twitter Australia to Abandon the U.S. Dollar ROBERT MORLEY APRIL 13, 2013 11 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY Air Force Jets a Casualty of Cuts CNN | April 10 T ui U.S. Air Force began ground- ing a third of its ghter jet eet on Tuesday because of forced spending cuts, one of the most prominent con- sequences so far of government-wide austerity that began in March. Dozens of units in the United States, Europe and the Pacic ulti- mately will stand down, according to a statement from Gen. Mike Hostage, the commander of the Air Forces Air Combat Command. Te move involving jets assigned to ghter, bomber, airborne warning and other squads aims to ensure that re- maining units can maintain sucient readiness through the remainder of the scal year, which ends September ,o. Units will stand down on a rotating basis so our limited resources can be focused on fullling critical missions, Hostage said. Te current situation means were accepting the risk that combat air power may not be ready to respond immediately to new contingencies as they occur, he said. Units that stop ying will shif their emphasis to ground training. Tey will use ight simulators to the extent possible within existing contracts, and conduct academic training to main- tain basic skills and knowledge of their aircraf. Your Kids Dont Belong to You YAHOO | April 8 G ii Bicx opened his radio show Monday in a state of near disbelief over an msnc promo where anchor Melissa Harris-Perry calmly explains how your children dont really belong to youthey belong to the collective. Its almost a parody of reality, Beck said of the clip. It is so far be- yond what we have ever thought as a nation, its remarkable . For those who havent seen the advertisement, Harris-Perry says: We have never invested as much in public education as we should have because weve always had kind of a private notion of children.Your kid is yours and totally your responsibility.We havent had a very collective notion of these are our children. So part of it is we have to break through our kind of private idea that kids belong to their parents or kids belong to their fami- lies and recognize that kids belong to whole communities. Beck explained , I think that theres a good :o to ,o percent of America, maybe even higher now, Im not sure, [that] will gladly have the State take that over so they dont have to worry about it. Yet another one of your responsibilities taken from you Im sorry. Another one of your respon- sibilities that you will gladly hand over because you dont know what to do. And so they will do it for you: Dont worry! Well raise your kids. Well train your kids. Well educate your kids because its working out so well. Related: Parents! Take Charge of Your Childs Incredible Potential W i .ii know what successful people look like. Tey are the ones who do whatever it takes, the ones with the sharp elbows, the ones who know how to take what is theirs. But there is a dierent, better path to success, argues Adam Grant, in Give and Take. Grant, a professor of management at Wharton, shares research which sug- gest that some of the most successful peoplenot just in business, but in many realmsare in fact classic givers, people who genuinely try to help those around them. How could this be: He took questions from Mind Matters editor Gareth Cook. Cook: How do you think that Americans tend to think about the personality of successful people, and what rst led you to suspect that this may be wrong: Grant: Many of us assume that to achieve success, its necessary to get at least as much from other people as we contribute to them. If were too generous, others will take advantage of us, and well end up running out of time and energy to work toward our own goals. Most of us assume that people achieve success and then start giving back. But what if the opposite is true: Could it be that giv- ing rst actually leads people to succeed later: Cook: And then where did you go with this question: What research suggested to you that it might be true: Grant: In one of my own studies, hundreds of sales- people completed a questionnaire on their commitment to helping coworkers and customers, and I tracked their sales revenue over the course of a year. I found that the most pro- ductive salespeople were the giversthose who reported the strongest concern for beneting others from the very beginning of their jobs. Tey earned the trust of their cus- tomers and the support of their coworkers. Similar patterns emerged in a number of other elds, and before long, I had many data points showing that the most successful people in a wide range of jobs are those who focus on contributing to others. Te givers ofen outperform the matchersthose who seek an equal balance of giving and gettingas well as the takers, who aim to get more than they give. The Secret to Success Is Giving, Not Taking SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN | April 9 OTHER NEWS AND NOTES APRIL 13, 2013 12 THE TRUMPET WEEKLY When a nation no longer has control over its national assets, can it still be considered a sovereign state: Also, consider the tremendous power at Berlins disposal if it possesses the leverage to compel another nation to sell a core national asset. Moreover, we learned yesterday that Germany not only has the power to crush a nations sovereignty, it also has the motive! More people need to be alarmed by this. Europes nancial crisis began in :oo8, and since then a number of eurozone states have had to go to Germany and the EU for money. Berlin has generally responded by demanding some fairly stringent austerity measures in return for bailout money. Yet, although it has demanded austerity, Berlin has not asked or compelled a single eurozone country in need of a bailout (like Greece, Ireland, Portugal) to sell part or all of its gold reserves. Until now. We should note that Wednesday evening the Central Bank of Cyprus (cnc) denied the report that Cyprus will sell some of its gold. Te announcement of the gold sale, however, came from the European Commission, which, together with the imv and the icn, and under Germanys direction, is actually responsible for drawing up Cypruss bailout. Also, the media and analysts paid little attention to the cncs denial and continue to report that this is happen- ing. I wonder if the Central Bank of Cyprus simply hasnt been told that its selling its gold: To raise the desired oo million, Cyprus will have to sell around :o.,o tons of gold (at the current price). Te nation owns about :,. tons of gold, according to the World Gold Council. So it will have to depart with about ,., percent, i.viv 1uvii qU.v1ivs, of its total reserve. Again, Cyprus didnt decide to sell, it was told by the German-led troika that it must sell if it wants bailout money. Who will it sell the gold to: Its almost certain the buyers will be the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Afer all, theyre the ones, with Germanys sanction, bailing out Cyprus. Te imv and icn possess about :,8: tons and ,o: tons of gold respectively. Germany has ,,,: tons, and is the worlds second-largest holder of gold. Together, this amounts to o,,o, tons of gold. Tat equals about 8: percent of Americas total gold supply. Note: Tat gure uois o1 include the gold reserves of other European countries. And if Cyprus is a precedent, then some of this gold could also start to make its way to Brussels and Frankfurt. I think this could be a turning point, said Jonathan Spall, director of precious metals at Barclays Capital. Central bank stocks of gold which had looked to be ring-fenced in the bailout process coUiu ow siimiciv comi i1o vi.v. What if Germany and the icn make a play for gold owned by other ailing European economies: Italy is the fourth-largest holder of goldits central bank holds :,,: tons. France has the fh-largest stockpile in the world with :,,, tons. Te Netherlands has o:: tons. Portugal has about ,8, tons. Spains holdings stand at :8:.o tons. Austria has :8o tons. Belgium ::, tons. Greece has about ::: tons. All totaled, the stockpile of gold if col- lected from oiv the European nations mentioned above, including the icnbut not including the imv (as that gold technically belongs to all imv members)would come to roughly :o,o, tons. Tat exceeds Americas stockpile by :,,o., tons! Tats more than enough to bolster a centralized scal authority and underpin a newly revived European cur- rency. Nearly all these eurozone nations are experiencing extreme nancial diculty and will inevitably require further assistance. Meanwhile, Germany and many others in Europe recognize the need for greater scal consolida- tion and centralization. Is it inconceivable that Germany, as part of an eort to augment a central European scal authority and restore condence in the euro, might compel the likes of Spain, France, Italy, Portugal or Greece, just as it has done with Cyprus, to sell some or all of their gold to the icn: True, it wouldnt be a simple or clean task (were talking about abdicating national sovereignty), but extreme crises like Europe is enduring demand extreme measures like were seeing in Cyprus. When we step back and look at it, there are hints that Germany and the icn might be pursuing some sort of larger strategy that includes consolidating gold. In January, Germany suddenly announced that it was repatriating its gold from France and the United States. In February, it was discovered that buried within Greeces bailout package is a stipulation that allows the EU to seize Greeces gold reserves. Prominent German politicians in recent years have openly discussed the need for Italy and Spain to sell gold to pay o debt. Now Cyprus is being compelled to sell most of its gold to the icn and imv. Is this mere coincidence, or is there something else go- ing on here: Is it possible that Cyprus is merely the rst of multiple European nations that will be made to send gold to a central European authority, one led by Germany: We will know in time. What we .ivi.uv know, however, is that Berlins power and inuence in Europe, especially on issues of nance, is unparallelled and unchecked. Were seeing Germany get tougher and tougher with the rest of Europe, especially with southern European countries. Financially, the Continent has been subjugated and, as Charles Moore recently wrote, lies prostrate before the German imperium. Te same is happening politically with each passing month. Consider all this in the context of Germanys undeniable history of political and nancial imperialism, and you get an eery sense that dark forces are at work in Europe. You need to stay tuned to the Trumpet. If you havent read it already, read Germanys Gold Hoard. We dont have all the details, but its clear something is afootand Germanys play for Cypruss gold might just be the beginning. Follow Brad Macdonald: Twitter GOLD from page 1 COVER: GMUTLU/ISTOCKPHOTO BRAD MACDONALD