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A

LIVE PROJECT REPORT


ON
“STOCK PRICE ANALYSIS OF
DIFFERENT SECTORS”

SUBMITTED BY:
AVDHESH KUMAR SHARMA

ROLL NO. : 0823170010


M.B.A.

2008-2010

A Project Report Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement


for Award of
M.B.A.

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R.D. Engineering College

DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this project report prepared in lieu of a compulsory paper for the

partial fulfilment of Management of Business Administration (Finance and

Marketing) is my original work which I have submitted in Gulf Bulls Securities Pvt.

Ltd. to my guide Ms Anuja Shukla. No part of it has been submitted to any other

university or organisation.

All the information and data in my project are authentic to the best of my knowledge

and taken from reliable sources.

Avdhesh Kumar Sharma

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Acknowledgement
Project work is never the work of an individual. It is more a combination of views,
ideas, suggestions, contribution and work involving many individuals.
I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Gulf Bulls Securities’ management for

giving me an opportunity to be a part of their esteem organization and enhance my

knowledge by granting permission to do my summer training project under their

guidance.

I am grateful to Ms. Anuja Shukla, my guide, for his invaluable guidance and

cooperation during the course of the project. He provided me with his assistance and

support whenever needed that has been instrumental in completion of this project.

The project could not have completed without the guidance of Mr. Vishal Thakur,
Ms.

Neha Goel, Ms. Anuja Shukla and last but not the least Mr. Mandeep. Their

continuous guidance helped me immensely during the project work

Avdhesh Kumar Sharma

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Preface
The stock market in India has been a kind of mysterious place for many people who

think that the persons investing their money in the market are sort of gambling on

their money. There is usual misconception in the minds of the common man that

because of the volatility of the market, their hard earned money is not safe in the
stock

market.

However, this fear can be checked by proper research on a share someone is

interested to invest on. The market doesn’t behave in an arbitrate manner but certain

trends are repeated over the time again and again. It is quite responsive towards the

economic activities taking place in India as well as around the whole world.

The broad objective of the project is to understand the behavioural pattern of the

shares of IndiaBulls Financial Services Ltd. over the past one year and a half so that

one can understand the movement of the share on a particular trading session as well

as the impact of news coming from different quarters of the market.

The project will provide a tool in the hands of the investors to take the decisions

regarding their investment in the shares of IBFSL that is, when to buy or when to sell

the shares. It will also give them the answer that whether it is right time to invest in

this share or not, and what could be the best time to invest in this share. project deals

with the analysis of different companies of different sectors.

My project is divided into different chapters and they are given as under:

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SR. PARTICULARS PAGE NO.


NO.
1 Executive Summary
2 Objective of Study
3 Research Methodology
4 Chapter 1
• Introduction of the company

Chapter 3
5 • Research An Introduction
 Technical Analysis
 Fundamental Analysis

6 Chapter 5
• Analysis of Different Indian sectors and its
leading companies
 IT
 Banking
 Real Estate

7 Chapter 6
• Conclusion

8 • Annexure
 Bibliography

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Indian economy remained on a high growth trajectory with renewed vigour and

greater participation from various sectors of the economy. The dynamism is expected

to gather further momentum with policy initiatives, thrust on building infrastructure,

emphasis on rural and agricultural reforms that would further stimulate demand,

growth and employment.

It seems that corporate India’s growth is likely to remain robust, given the massive

capital expenditure plans of Indian companies. 14 key manufacturing sectors reported

26.5% increase in capital work-in-progress on a y-o-y basis, thus indicating strong

business outlook and confidence.

I have introduced a new section in this year’s edition, viz., Insights. Some major

findings contained therein are as follows:

It is the PSU companies that rule the roost in terms of market capitalisation. The 54

PSU companies featured in the Top 500 list command a high share of 25.2% in the

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total market capitalisation of the Top 500 Companies.

The report describes various aspects of the Stocks and focus on the various

opportunities and threats that have emerged as a result of change in the regulatory

environment. The objective of the project is to find out the risk and return

perspective of the stocks of different sectors.

In doing so I have used various selection techniques. For the purpose of selecting the

company’s products we have used the main selection analysis is Technical analysis

and fundamental analysis for ICICI Bank, Educomp Solutions and Unitech. The

intention behind such an analysis is that to analyze the competitive advantage of the

company by knowing the resistance and support level for the company’s which is

particularly helpful in identifying areas of development. I have conducted a detailed

study of various real economy snapshots so as to consider the growth opportunities of

the economy as a whole.

Then I have done the fundamental analysis to predict the stocks behaviour in future

moreover the technical analysis for stocks return for the above mentioned stocks, the

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Also I have done the Financial Strength Analysis of the company’s because to know

how it is efficient in financial way .

In this section I have done the full study of the ICICI, Educomp Solutions and

Unitech.

I have also done swot analysis for these three companies with strengths, weakness,

opportunity and threats of each of the company’s. The swot analysis would also

provide an overview to an investor regarding the future certainity and uncertainity.

At last I have done a analysis of these stocks and had predicted the stock prices for

future and the support as well as resistance level so that it can be taken up by the

investors to decide the time and date for their investment to have greater returns at

their end.

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OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

As per the requirement of course I have prepared this report.

• To track the share prices of the companies.

• To study the share price movements.

• To analyze the balance sheet and income statement in order to know the

position of the companies.

• To do the fundamental analysis of the companies taken for comparison in

order to know the financial position of the companies.

• To do the technical analysis.

• To do the swot analysis.

In this study I had to present an introduction to the Indian economy and study of

different Indian sectors Data for companies were collected and analyzed. A

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Comparison of stock market index and stock prices of these companies was done and

it was clarified how much change is there with a change is Sensex. The study
includes

a SWOT analysis of different companies, which points out the strength, weakness,

opportunity and threats, with a focus on the Indian market.

Need of the study was to get an incite into the different sectors and future market

prospects. This study was required because when it comes to business generation and

growth in this highly competitive world, each of such companies need to understand

the market they want to enter, the competitors, know the market potential and future

growth prospects. It becomes more complex when it comes to dealing with


someone’s

hard earned money. One needs to generate trust and give better services as compared

to their competitors. This study will be of importance for Gulf Bulls as they will
come

to know about the different sector, how it functions, and trends in the sector etc. Also

it is very important to know the liquidity and returns of the market one is planning to

enter. So a research was done to know the volumes they generate, the type of client

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they have, the type projects they have, the type of segment they need to enter or come

out, the growth that they require for there order book so that they sustain in this

market scenario, their strategy to trade, liquidity and investments made by them. This

will provide an insight to formulate business strategies for better growth.

Another study to collect a database of the prospective clients in not only nationally

but also in global was conducted. It includes the type of project they are getting and

bid which they giving at time of tender issue by government or other corporate. On

the basis of this analysis, a feasibility report has been prepared to make Gulf Bulls

Securities aware of the highly active unorganized and organized sector present in the

market. This database will help them to make a good research report.

The financial statements of the companies were studied to analyze their investments

and returns. This also gave an idea about the returns on investments from this market.

Hence in this project report I have tried to cover all the possible dimensions related to

the study of construction sector and its returns, liquidity and future growth prospects

in this market. Suggestions are also given in the end as to how Gulf Bulls Securities

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can be benefit from these analysis for there research report.

METHODOLOGY
An Introduction
Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define

research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent information on a specific

topic. Some people consider research as a movement, a movement from the known to

the unknown. It is actually a voyage of discovery. We all possess the vital instinct of

inquisitiveness for things. When the unknown confronts us, we wonder and our

inquisitiveness make us probe and attain full understanding of the unknown. This

inquisitiveness is the mother of all knowledge and the method, which a person

employs for obtaining this knowledge of whatever the unknown, can be termed as

research.

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Research is an academic activity and as such the term should be used in a technical

sense. Research is an original contribution to the existing stock of knowledge made

for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the help of study, observation,

comparison, and experiment. In short, the search for knowledge through objective
and

systematic method of finding solutions to a problem is research.

Significance of research

It is very important to understand the importance of research to perform it better and

also to appreciate a research work. So I thought of stating the significance of

research.

“All progress is born of inquiry. Doubt is better than overconfidence, for it leads to

inquiry and inquiry leads to invention” is a famous Hudson Maxim in context of

which the significance of research can be well understood. Increased amount of

research makes progress possible. Research inculcates scientific and inductive

thinking and it promotes the development of logical habits of thinking and

organization.

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The role of research in several fields of applied economics and finance, whether

related to business or to the economy as a whole, has greatly increased in modern

times. The increasingly complex nature of business and government has focused

attention on the use of research in solving operational problems. Research, as an aid


to

policy formation, has gained added importance, both from the government and the

business houses.

Research Methodology
The objective of this research project was to provide Gulf Bulls Securities with

analysis of different sectors with a detailed feasibility report in respect to order

growth and trend nationally and internationally.

The section on parameters that affect the different sector required secondary data

collection and then use of valuation ratio for the estimating the revenue which they

can generate in future like steel prices to sales ratio, cement prices to sales ratio along

with independent variables like inflation, interest rates etc.


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One of the section is to establish ratio analysis and order book analysis, for which
data

relating to the companies traded at sensex, nse etc was collected and spot and risk

factor has been associated. Price of raw material and sales trend were also

established. Beta factor of each company was studied.

Seasonal variations in order book for each of company was calculated from the

secondary data collected and analysis has been done as to how much are the

seasonality in each of these stocks last section of my research was to do valuation

ratio as a common factor indicating the future prospectus of the companies.

In this study, mainly two types of data collection techniques were used i.e. with the

help of research analyst and secondly with the help of research report given by

project guide at the company. In both the methods, the analysis has been done for the

sector. It was taken care that I refrained from expressing my own opinion.

Limitations

• The biggest problem that I faced during this research study was that of data

collection.

• Calculation of Valuation ratios was another problem

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• In my research it was difficult to get persons at company to give out information

regarding their order of the project and value of uncompleted project.

• Year ending period and my survey period were same, creating a problem, as

people

• were scared to give required data. They said they would have to consult their C.A

regarding it.

• During the working days my sir has to submit daily research report so during the

market time he was not able to attention to me so I have to wait when I have any

query regarding the report.

CHAPTER 1
COMPANY
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PROFILE

COMPANY’S PROFILE

About company

Gulf Bulls Securities Pvt. Ltd. is a company registered under the Companies Act,

1956 .It is a professionally managed group headed by the directors, having vast

experience in the stock market.

The company is serving a diverse customer base of institutional and retail investors

The Company has a balanced mix of revenues from emerging markets and is well

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positioned to leverage the growth potential offered by these markets.

GBS provides investors a robust platform to trade in Equities in NSE and BSE, and

derivatives in NSE. The company has a worldwide vision and it along with its

associates is currently providing state of the art stock broking services through all the

major stock exchanges, trading through NSE & BSE, depository services through

CDSL and all the services are available under the one roof. With its ability to evolve

with the changing environment the Company has been able to put itself to the

forefront of stock broking activities. With its network spreading across various parts

of India, it has made a distinct mark among the stock broking houses and high net

worth corporate as well as individuals.

The company offers financial information, analysis, investment guidance, news &

views, which are designed to meet the requirements of everyone from a beginner to a

savvy and well-informed trader.

“Our vision is to grow our business and make our presence across the world.”

“Our mission is to create and introduce the new definition of investments around the

globe.”

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Management Team:

Name Designation
Mr. Vivek Rana Chairman / Managing Director

Mr Rajiv Balhara Director

Mr. Kuldeep Sharma Director

Mr. Yajur Chaudhary Director

Mr. Rajneesh Aggarwal Director

Mr. Vipin Kumar Director

Mr. Gajraj Singh Director

Mr. Anil Kaushik Director

Prominent feature of Gulf Bulls Securities

• Strong research department located at Faridabad office.

• Well structured infrastructure for trading

• Highly skilled and experience staff

• Dedicated user friendly website for its customers, named www.monepore.com

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and www.moneyporeexpress.com

• Moneypore express, software developed by Gulf Bulls Securities provides

retail investors better opportunity to trade at home and that to at greater speed

and convenience.

Areas of Expertise

Gulf Bulls offers real time trading opportunities on the NSE. It also offers depository

and online services to clients for account accessing and information through its online

portal catering to the needs of mobile trader as well as the net savvy investor. Gulf

Bulls offers state-of –the–art online trading through its website

(www.gulfbullsecurity.co.in). Regular updates during trading hours, and access to

information, analysis and research, and a range of monitoring tools is available. The

company has steadily building up a comprehensive portfolio of products and services

apart from conventional broking. High speed anywhere trading through the net,

online depository services, commodities trading and retail debt products are

increasingly areas of special emphasis for the company.

Research
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Gulf Bulls is a research driven organization. Daily Call is its morning newsletter that

takes a trading call on the market and gives a ringside view of the overnight national

and international events. Customers get real time feeds on news, comments and

recommendations through instant messaging that are of utmost essence to the serious

trader. The Weekly Watch delivered to all the clients every Saturday evening is the

most comprehensive reports of its kind. The report summons developments over the

past week, major economic talking points, summary on derivatives markets, technical

outlook and trading ideas for the forthcoming week and fundamental investments
with

an exhaustive research report for a medium to long term horizon. On the commodities

side, it releases daily and weekly reports providing outlook on international agri-

commodities.

Mutual Funds

Gulf Bulls provides a host of services for customers investing in mutual funds. It

offers wide range of services like, rankings of different mutual fund schemes, list of

new schemes issued in the market, interviews with fund managers, InstaNAV – a

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quick search based application that enables customers to get the related information

about the desired scheme, Primer – a brief description about mutual funds, RBI

procedural guidelines and a Risk Profiler – which helps the customers in ascertaining

one’s own profile, thus minimizing risk.

Advisory Services

Apart from broking business, Gulf Bulls is also engaged in offering advisory services

of investments into mutual funds, primary market, life insurance and other small

saving products. The distribution services add up to their broking business and are

serviced by experts at each location. The business is supported by an efficient

research and back office team. Gulf Bulls’s set of diligent advisors helps its
customers

plan and get more out of one’s money. The schemes include, fixed income, bank
fixed

deposits, company fixed deposits, small savings schemes, tax saving schemes and

NRI deposits. Gulf Bulls also provides tax planning services – where a list of tax

saving schemes and a forum for Q&A where the queries are answered by the tax

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advisors; and an NRI advisory body, where it provides information for NRIs in

helping them makes judicious investment decisions.

Loan Advisory

Gulf Bulls also provides advisory services on the loan schemes of certain banks to its

customers. The schemes include, home loans, adhoc loans, professional loans,

educational loans, consumer loans and auto loans. Its advisory services are classified

into four categories namely; Primers – giving an overview about all schemes that are

available, Calculators – where it helps the customers with quick calculators, Jargon

Buster – a translator and Digital Advisors – which help in making decisions easy. It

has entered into partnership with many leading banks in providing this facility.

Performance

The Company registered strong growth during the first 10 months of 2007. The

company added 26,460 domestic customer accounts in 2007 as compared to 25,295 in

2006. Number of terminals, sub brokers and employees almost doubled during this

period.

Growth Areas
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Gulf Bulls has diversified its business to other areas such as portfolio management

services and is looking forward at opening overseas branches. It plans to introduce

company fixed deposits and merchant banking to its current offerings. It is also

aiming at increasing their institutional client base, acquiring new business/brokerage

firms and also entering into joint venture operations in the near future.

Membership

Cash Market: NSE

MEMBERSHIP

Cash Market : NSE,

Products offered

Currently Gulf Bulls Securities and Stockbroking is offering following product


bouquet to people who wish to deal in stock market

Offline

Demat : Rs. 500

Rs 100 : Stamp duty

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Rs. 200 : Advance Delivery

Rs.200 : AMC

Online

Online trading account : Rs. 750

Online trading account

Online Software Moneypore Express

Online package : Rs. 500 (+ Rs 5000 margin)

Demat

Online trading account

Online Software Moneypore Express

SWOT Analysis

Strength

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• Highly skilled and experienced staff.

• Excellent infrastructure

• Branches all over India

• Strong research department, headed by V K Sharma

• Various investment services under one roof

Weakness

• In adequate center within the city, vis-à-vis its major competitors

• No mass marketing programme

Opportunity

• Growing investment in capital market from retail investors

• Development of online trading as the speed of communication has increased

• Tapping young investors and making them their loyal client

• Initiate awareness about stock market and initiate classes for people interested

to trade but are anxious because of their lack of knowledge.

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Threat

• Bigger players like Reliance entering market

• Reducing brand loyalty among clients

• Security threat in online trading

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CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE
REVIEW

Similar work that is related to Equity Research and Stock Analysis has been

undertaken by several authors. Some of the thoughts I am briefing out here :

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In this article author reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in

February 1995 on the use by foreign exchange dealers in Hong Kong of fundamental

and technical analyses to form their forecasts of exchange rate movements. Our

findings reveal that>85% of respondents rely on both fundamental and technical

analyses for predicting future rate movements at different time horizons. At shorter

horizons, there exists a skew towards reliance on technical analysis as opposed to

fundamental analysis, but the skew becomes steadily reversed as the length of
horizon

considered is extended. Technical analysis is considered slightly more useful in

forecasting trends than fundamental analysis, but significantly more useful in

predicting turning points. Interest rate-related news is found to be a relatively

important fundamental factor in exchange rate forecasting, while moving average

and/or other trend-following systems are the most useful technical technique.

In this another study the author documents the behaviour of earnings, abnormal stock

returns, analysts' earnings forecasts, and accounting accruals following years in which

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companies report negative annual earnings. Changes in accounting accruals (earnings

minus operating cash flows) frequently are used as proxies for managerial

manipulation of earnings numbers. Our evidence indicates that earnings typically

increase sharply in the year following a loss. The earnings increases are due to

improved operating cash flows, not to accounting “window dressing.” However,

financial analysts expect even better earnings performance than the rebounding firms

are able to provide. Investors also appear not to understand the post-loss behaviour of

annual earnings. Therefore, the market commonly is disappointed by the earnings

increases, and the result, on average, is negative excess stock returns. The excess

returns are correlated with analysts' earnings forecast errors, which proxy for the

market's failure to understand post-loss earnings behaviour.

(Michael Ettredge Richard Toolson Steve Hall Chongkil Na, Oct 2002)

The paper seeks to estimate and analyze the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient

(VAIC) for measuring the value-based performance of the Indian banking sector for a

period of five years from 2000 to 2004. Design/methodology/approach - Annual

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reports, especially the profit/loss account and balance-sheet of the banks concerned

for the relevant years, were used to obtain the data. A review is conducted of the

international literature on intellectual capital with specific reference to literature that

reviews measurement techniques and tools, and the VAIC method is applied in order

to analyze the data of Indian banks for the five-year period. The intellectual or human

capital (HC) and physical capital (CA) of the Indian banking sector is analysed and

their impact on the banks' value-based performance is discussed. Findings - The study

confirms the existence of vast differences in the performance of Indian banks in

different segments, and there is also an improvement in the overall performance over

the study period. There is an evident bias in favour of the performance of foreign

banks compared with domestic banks. Research limitations/implications - All 98

scheduled commercial banks are studied as per the information provided by the

Reserve Bank of India (RBI)/India's Apex bank. Regional rural banks (RRBs), a

segment of the indian banking sector, are not dealt with in the study since their

number is large (more than 200), but they contribute only 3 percent of the market of

Indian banks. This paper is a landmark in Indian banking history as it approaches

performance measurement with a new dimension. Practical implications - The paper

has strong theoretical foundations, which have a proven record and applications. The

methodology adopted has been research tested. Domestic banks in India are provided

with a new dimension to understand and evaluate their performance and benchmark it

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with global standards. The paper also has policy implications, as it reflects the lop-

sided growth of a few sections in the Indian banking segment. Originality/value - The

paper represents a pioneering and seminal attempt to understand the implications of

the business performance of the Indian banking sector from an intellectual resource

perspective.

(“Barathi Kamath Journal of Intellectual Capital”)

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CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH AN
INTRODUCTION

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RESEARCH an Introduction

Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define

research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent information on a specific

topic. Some people consider research as a movement, a movement from the known to

the unknown. It is actually a voyage of discovery. We all possess the vital instinct of

inquisitiveness for things. When the unknown confronts us, we wonder and our

inquisitiveness make us probe and attain full understanding of the unknown. This

inquisitiveness is the mother of all knowledge and the method, which a person

employs for obtaining this knowledge of whatever the unknown, can be termed as

research.

Research is an academic activity and as such the term should be used in a technical

sense. Research is an original contribution to the existing stock of knowledge made

for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the help of study, observation,

comparison, and experiment. In short, the search for knowledge through objective
and systematic method of finding solutions to a problem is research.

Significance of research
It is very important to understand the importance of research to perform it better and
also to appreciate a research work. So I thought of stating the significance of
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research. “All progress is born of inquiry. Doubt is better than overconfidence, for it
leads to inquiry and inquiry leads to invention” is a famous Hudson Maxim in context
of which the significance of research can be well understood. Increased amount of
research makes progress possible. Research inculcates scientific and inductive
thinking and it promotes the development of logical habits of thinking and
organization.
The role of research in several fields of applied economics and finance, whether
related to business or to the economy as a whole, has greatly increased in modern
times. The increasingly complex nature of business and government has focused
attention on the use of research in solving operational problems. Research, as an aid
to policy formation, has gained added importance, both from the government and the
business houses.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is simply the study of prices as reflected on price charts.


Technical analysis assumes that current prices should represent all known
information about the markets. Prices not only reflect intrinsic facts, they also
represent human emotion and the pervasive mass psychology and mood of the
moment. Prices are, in the end, a function of supply and demand. However, on a
moment to moment basis, human emotions…fear, greed, panic, hysteria, elation,
etc. also dramatically effect prices. Markets may move based upon people's
expectations, not necessarily facts. A market "technician" attempts to disregard
the emotional component of trading by making his decisions based upon chart
formations, assuming that prices reflect both facts and emotion. Analysts use
their technical research to decide whether the current market is a BULL MARKET or
a BEAR MARKET.

1. STOCK CHARTS

A stock chart is a simple two-axis (X-Y) plotted graph of price and time. Each
individual equity, market and index listed on a public exchange has a chart that

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illustrates this movement of price over time. Individual data plots for charts can be
made using the CLOSING price for each day. The plots are connected together in a
single line, creating the graph. Also, a combination of the OPENING,
CLOSING, HIGH and/or LOW prices for that market session can be used for the data
plots. This second type of data is called a PRICE BAR. Individual price bars are then
overlaid onto the graph, creating a dense visual display of stock movement.
Stock charts can be drawn in two different ways. An ARITHMETIC chart has
equal vertical distances between each unit of price. A LOGARITHMIC chart is
a percentage growth chart.

2. TRENDS

The stock chart is used to identify the current trend. A trend reflects the
average rate of change in a stock's price over time. Trends exist in all time frames
and all markets. Trends can be classified in three ways: UP, DOWN or
RANGEBOUND. In an uptrend, a stock rallies often with intermediate periods of
consolidation or movement against the trend. In doing so, it draws a series of
higher highs and higher lows on the stock chart. In an uptrend, there will be a
POSITIVE rate of price change over time. In a downtrend, a stock declines
often with intermediate periods of consolidation or movement against the trend. In
doing so, it draws a series of lower highs and lower lows on the stock chart.
In a downtrend, there will be a NEGATIVE rate of price change over time.
Range bound price swings back and forth for long periods between easily seen
upper and lower limits. There is no apparent direction to the price movement on the
stock chart and there will be LITTLE or NO rate of price change. Trends tend to
persist over time. A stock in an uptrend will continue to rise until some change in
value or a condition occurs. Declining stocks will continue to fall until some
change in value or conditions occur. Chart readers try to locate TOPS and
BOTTOMS, which are those points where a rally or a decline ends. Taking a
position near a top or a bottom can be very profitable. Trends can be

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measured using TRENDLINES. Very often a straight line can be drawn UNDER
three or more pullbacks from rallies or OVER pullbacks from declines. When price
bars then return to that trend line, they tend to find SUPPORT or RESISTANCE
and bounce off the line in the opposite direction.

3. VOLUME
Volume measures the participation of the crowd. Stock charts display
volume through individual HISTOGRAMS below the price pane.
Often these will show green bars for up days and red bars for down days. Investors
and traders can measure buying and selling interest by watching how many up
or down days in a row occur and how their volume compares with days in
which price moves in the opposite direction.

Stocks that are bought with greater interest than sold are said to be
under ACCUMULATION. Stocks that are sold with great interest than bought
are said to be under DISTRIBUTION. Accumulation and distribution often LEAD
price movement. In other words, stocks under accumulation often will rise some time
after the buying begins. Alternatively, stocks under distribution will often fall some
time after selling begins. It takes volume for a stock to rise but it can fall of its own
weight. Rallies require the enthusiastic participation of the crowd.

When a rally runs out of new participants, a stock can easily fall. Investors and
traders use indicators such as ON BALANCE VOLUME to see whether
participation is lagging (behind) or leading (ahead) the price action. Stocks
trade daily with an average volume that determines their LIQUIDITY. Liquid
stocks are very easy for traders to buy and sell. Liquid stocks require very
high SPREADS (transaction costs) to buy or sell and often cannot be eliminated
quickly from a portfolio. Stock chart analysis does not work well on illiquid stocks.

4. PATTERNS AND INDICATORS

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How can one organize the endless stream of stock chart data into a logical
format? Charts allow investors and traders to look at past and present price
action in order to make reasonable predictions and wise choices. It is a highly visual
medium. This one fact separates it from the colder world of value-based
analysis. The stock chart activates both left-brain and right-brain functions of
logic and creativity. So it's no surprise that over the last century two forms of
analysis have developed that focus along these lines of critical examination.
The oldest form of interpreting charts is PATTERN ANALYSIS. This
method gained popularity through both the writings of Charles Dow and
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, a classic book written on the subject just
after World War II. The newer form of interpretation is INDICATOR
ANALYSIS, a math-oriented examination in which the basic elements of price and
volume are run through a series of calculations in order to predict where price will go
next. Pattern analysis gains its power from the tendency of charts to repeat the same
bar formations over and over again.

These patterns have been categorized over the years as having a bullish or
bearish bias. Some well-known ones include HEAD and SHOULDERS,
TRIANGLES, RECTANGLES, DOUBLE TOPS, DOUBLE BOTTOMS and
FLAGS. Also, chart landscape features such as GAPS and TRENDLINES are said to
have great significance on the future course of price action. Indicator analysis uses
math calculations to measure the relationship of current price to past price
action. Almost all indicators can be categorized as TREND-FOLLOWING or
OSCILLATORS. Popular trend-following indicators include MOVING
AVERAGES, ON BALANCE VOLUME and MACD. Common oscillators
include STOCHASTICS, RSI and RATE OF CHANGE. Trend-following
indicators react much more slowly than oscillators. They look deeply into the rear
view mirror to locate the future. Oscillators react very quickly to short-term changes
in price, flipping back and forth between OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD
levels.

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R.D. Engineering College
Both patterns and indicators measure market psychology. The core of investors
and traders that make up the market each day tend to act with a herd mentality as
price rises and falls. This "crowd" tends to develop known characteristics
that repeat themselves over and over again. Chart interpretation using these two
important analysis tools uncovers growing stress within the crowd that should
eventually translate into price change.

5. SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

The concept of SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE is essential to understanding


and interpreting stock charts. Just as a ball bounces when it hits the floor or
drops after being thrown to the ceiling, support and resistance defines
natural boundaries for rising and falling prices. Buyers and sellers are constantly in
battle mode. Support defines that level where buyers are strong enough to keep
price from falling further. Resistance defines that level where sellers are too strong to
allow price to rise further. Support and resistance play different roles in uptrends and
downtrends. In an uptrend, support is where a pullback from a rally should end. In a
downtrend, resistance is where a pullback from a decline should end. Support and
resistance are created because price has memory. Those prices where significant
buyers or sellers entered the market in the past will tend to generate a similar
mix of participants when price again returns to that level. When price pushes above
resistance, it becomes a new support level. When price falls below support, that level
becomes resistance. When a level of support or resistance is penetrated, price tends to
thrust forward sharply as the crowd notices the BREAKOUT and jumps in to buy
or sell. When a level is penetrated but does not attract a crowd of buyers or
sellers, it often falls back below the old support or resistance. This failure is
known as a FALSE BREAKOUT. Support and resistance come in all varieties
and strengths.

They most often manifest as horizontal price levels. But trend lines at various angles
represent support and resistance as well. The length of time that a support or
resistance level exists determines the strength or weakness of that level. The strength
or weakness determines how much buying or selling interest will be required
39
R.D. Engineering College
to break the level. Also, the greater volume traded at any level, the stronger that
level will be. Support and resistance exist in all time frames and all markets.

Levels in longer tie frames are stronger than those in shorter time frames. The ideas
of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street Journal, form the basis of technical
analysis today. The behavior patterns that he observed apply to markets throughout
the world.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is the process of looking at a business at the basic or
fundamental financial level. This type of analysis examines key ratios of a business to
determine its financial health and gives you an idea of the value its stock.

Many investors use fundamental analysis alone or in combination with other tools to
evaluate stocks for investment purposes. The goal is to determine the current worth
and, more importantly, how the market values the stock.

Earnings

It’s all about earnings. When you come to the bottom line, that’s what investors want
to know. How much money is the company making and how much is it going to
make in the future.

Earnings are profits. It may be complicated to calculate, but that’s what buying a
company is about. Increasing earnings generally leads to a higher stock price and, in
some cases, a regular dividend.

When earnings fall short, the market may hammer the stock. Every quarter,
companies report earnings. Analysts follow major companies closely and if they fall
40
R.D. Engineering College
short of projected earnings, sound the alarm. For more information on earnings, see
my article: It’s the Earnings.
While earnings are important, by themselves they don’t tell you anything about how
the market values the stock. To begin building a picture of how the stock is valued
you need to use some fundamental analysis tools. These ratios are easy to calculate,
but you can find most of them already done on sites like cnn.money.com or MSN
MoneyCentral.com.
These are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis. They focus on earnings,
growth, and value in the market. The tools are given belows:-

1. Earnings per Share – EPS


2. Price to Earnings Ratio – P/E
3. Projected Earning Growth – PEG
4. Price to Sales – P/S
5. Price to Book – P/B
6. Dividend Payout Ratio
7. Dividend Yield
8. Book Value
9. Return on Equity
No single number from this list is a magic bullet that will give you a buy or sell
recommendation by itself, however as you begin developing a picture of what you
want in a stock, these numbers will become benchmarks to measure the worth of
potential investments.

Ratio analysis

Ratio analysis is a powerful tool of financial analysis. a ratio is defined as the


“indicated quotient of two mathematical expressions” and as” the relationship
between two or more things.” in financial analysis, a ratio is used as a benchmark for
evaluating the financial position and performance of a firm. The absolute accounting
figures reported in the financial statements do not provide a meaningful
understanding of the performance to some other relevant information. For example,
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R.D. Engineering College
Rs5 corer net profits may look impressive, but the firm s performance can be said to
be good or bad only when the net profit figure is related to the firm s investment. The
relationship between the two accounting figures, expressed mathematically, is known
as financial ratio. Ratio helps to summarize the large quantities of financial
performance.

Uses of ratio analysis:


• We can determine the ability of the firm to meet its current obligations
• We determine the overall operating efficiency and performances of the firm
• Useless in analysis of financial statements
• Useless in locating the week spots of the business
• Useless in comparison of performance
• The extent to which the firm has used its long –term solvency by borrowing
• The efficiency with which the firm is utilizing its assets in generating sales
• Useful in simplifying accounting figures
• Useful In forecasting purpose
• Weakness in financial structure on account of incorrect policies in the
present are revealed through accounting ratios
• The comparisons can be made on the basis of ratios

Limitations of accounting ratios:


• Ratios may be worked out for insignificant and unrelated figures
• Price level changes affect ratio analysis
• Difficult to forecast future on the basis of the past facts
• Give false result if the ratios are based on incorrect accounting
• Ignore qualitative policies
• No single standard ratio for comparison
• Limited utility if based on single set of figures.

Financial ratios provide the basic for answering some important questions concerning
financial (well being) of the firm.
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R.D. Engineering College
How liquid is the firm? Liquidity refers to the firms’ ability to meet maturing
obligating and to convert assets into cash. This factor is very important to the firms’
creditors.

Is management generating sufficient profits from the firm’s assets?


Primary purpose for purchasing an asset is to produce profits, the analysts often seek
an indication of the adequacy of the profits being realized if the level of profits
appears insufficient in relation to the investment, an investigation into the reasons for
the inferior returns is in order.

How does the firms’ management finance its investment? These decisions
have a direct impact upon the returns provided to the common stockholders.

Are the stockholders receiving sufficient return on their investment?


The objective of financial manager is to maximize the value of the firm’s common
stock, and level of returns being received by the inventors relative to their investment
is a key factor in determining the value.

STANDARDS OF COMPARISON
The ratio analysis involves comparison for a useful interpretation of the financial
statements. Standards of comparison may consist of:
• PAST RATIOS: i.e. ratios calculated from the past financial
statements of the same firm:
• PROJECTED RATIOS: i.e. ratios developed using the projected, or
pro forma, financial statements of the same firm;
• COMPETITORS’ RATIO: i.e. ratios of some selected firms,
especially most progressive and successful competitor, at the same
point in time, and

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R.D. Engineering College
• INDUSTRY RATIOS: i.e. ratios of the industries to which the firms
belongs

CLASSIFICATION OF RATIOS

Ratios can be classified from various points of view .In reality; the classification
depends on the objectives and available data. Ratio may be based on figures in the
balance sheet .in the profit & loss account in both
Thus they may be worked out on the basis of figures contained in the financial
statements.
In the view of the requirement of the various users (e.g. short term creditors, long
term creditors, management, investors etc….) of the ratio may classify the ratio as
follows-

1. INCOME STATEMENT RATIOS:-


These ratios are calculated on the basis of the terms of income statement only e.g.
gross profit ratio, stock turnover rationed

2. POSITION STATEMENT RATIOS:-


These ratios are calculated on the basis of the figures of the figures of position
statement only e.g. current ratio, debt equity ratio etc.

3. INTER STATEMENT RATIO OR COMPOSITE RATIO:-


These ratios are based on the figures of income statement as well as position
statement e.g. fixed assets turnover ratios net profit to capital employed etc

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CHAPTER 5
ANALYSIS OF
DIFFERENT INDIAN
45
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SECTORS & ITS
LEADING COMPANIES

INDIAN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

Information technology, and the hardware and software associated with the IT
industry, are an integral part of nearly every major global industry.
The information technology (IT) industry has become of the most robust industries in
the world. IT, more than any other industry or economic facet, has an increased
productivity, particularly in the developed world, and therefore is a key driver of
global economic growth. Economies of scale and insatiable demand from both
consumers and enterprises characterize this rapidly growing sector.
The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) explains the
“information technology” as encompassing all possible aspects of information
systems based on computers.

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R.D. Engineering College
Both software development and the hardware involved in the IT industry include
everything from computer systems, to the design, implementation, study and
development of IT and management systems.
Owing to its easy accessibility and the wide range of IT products available, the
demand for IT services has increased substantially over the years. The IT sector has
emerged as a major global source of both growth and employment.

Features of the IT Industry at a Glance


• Economies of scale for the information technology industry are high. The
marginal cost of each unit of additional software or hardware is insignificant
compared to the value addition that results from it.
• Unlike other common industries, the IT industry is knowledge-based.
• Efficient utilization of skilled labor forces in the IT sector can help an
economy achieve a rapid pace of economic growth.
• The IT industry helps many other sectors in the growth process of the
economy including the services and manufacturing sectors.

The role of the IT Industry


The IT industry can serve as a medium of e-governance, as it assures easy
accessibility to information. The use of information technology in the service sector
improves operational efficiency and adds to transparency. It also serves as a medium
of skill formation.

MAJOR STEPS TAKEN FOR PROMTION OF IT INDUSTRY

Domain of the IT Industry


A wide variety of services come under the domain of the information technology
industry. Some of these services are as follows:

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R.D. Engineering College
• Systems architecture
• Database design and development
• Networking
• Application development
• Testing
• Documentation
• Maintenance and hosting
• Operational support
• Security services

EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
Company description
Educomp Solutions Ltd, formerly Educomp Datamatics Limited, was
incorporated in 994 and is based in New Delhi, India. It is India's largest
market-listed educational service provider mainly focused on the K-12 space.
Educomp group serves over 19,000 schools and 9.4 million learners and
educators across the world. Company operates private schools across various
cities and also partners with various state governments.

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R.D. Engineering College
It has 27 offices worldwide. In addition, the Company operates through its various
subsidiaries including authorGEN, Threebrix eServices, Learning.com, USA,
AsknLearn Pte Ltd, Singapore and via its associates such as Savvica in Canada.

The company has three primary business segments :-


1. Licensing of tools that help existing education system to
Move to a higher standard of delivery.
2. Direct Intervention - running schools, pre-schools and tutoring classes,
online
delivery etc.
1. Post K-12 initiatives such as vocational and professional education.

Educomp's main business is developing and licensing digital lessons, which


are uploaded onto servers and provided to schools. It also trains teachers
(75,000 in the last quarter), provides vocational training to students with courses
such as accounting and marketing, and offers online and in-person tutoring. It
runs eight K-12 schools. It has joined up in January with New Delhi real
estate developer Ansal Properties & Infrastructure to start 25 private
schools in new townships. It aims to start 150 schools over the next three years.

Educomp's big money-maker is Smartclass, a range of interactive digital lessons


with animation and graphics that's marketed mainly to private schools as they
have deeper pockets than public schools. The multimedia lessons-- 16,000 so
far--are based on the different curricula in place across the country and use
12 of the country's Languages.

Key Developments during 1HFY2009


• Smart Class: Company has covered 27 cities with total plan of 80 cities.
EBIT margins for this business more than 50%.
• Margins for ICT improved to 35% from 27%
earlier, however such margins are unsustainable in the long
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R.D. Engineering College
run, and are likely to settle around 20%.
• Educomp achieved growth rate of 700% on its education portal
Mathguru.com on paying customers.
• Margins for retail business improved from 41% to 71%

• Received financial closure for Rs 725cr of debt for its K-12 business.
• Debtor days for company have come down from 179 days to 145 days.

Important Agreements Made by the Educomp Solution Pvt.Ltd.


• The first seven “Millennium Schools” (as defined below) are launched, with
Edu Manage (as defined below) acting as vendor of the Company’s products
and services.
• The Company, via Edu Infra (as defined below) enters collaborative
agreements to ensure sufficient land is available for development of new
schools in accordance with its K-12 initiative.
• Edumatics signs a joint development agreement with U.S. based company,
Learning.com, to provide educators with innovative, web-delivered
curriculum solutions that support student learning.
• The Company enters into a partnership with Microsoft to make its multimedia
content curriculum available for use on the Xbox 360 platform, which
• currently has over 50,000 users worldwide. The official launch of the product
is expected during FY 2009.
• Edumatics enters into a strategic alliance and joint development agreement
with Siboney Learning Group, Inc. to create a new online test preparation
programme, leveraging IP, a software development programme, manpower
and the expertise of both parties.
• In May, the Company acquires a 51% strategic stake (on a fully diluted basis)
in Learning.com.

COMPANY MANAGEMENT

Shantanu Prakash Chairman & Managing Director

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Jagdish Prakash Whole-Time Director
Gomal Jain Director
Sankalp Srivastava Director
Shonu Chandra Director
Sankalp Srivastava AUDIT COMMITTEE
Chairman, Independent & Non-Executive

Subsidiaries of the company

Name of Company Ownership Interest


Edumatics Inc. -U.S.A. 1655 100%
Educomp Learning Private Limited –India 51%
Educomp Professional Private Limited –India 100%
Sikhya Solutions LLC-U.S.A. 100%
Learning.com, U.S.A. 51%

The Company has seventeen subsidiaries, one associate and two planned joint
ventures. The subsidiaries focus mainly on providing services and products directly to
the individual consumer as part of the Company’s Direct initiatives. In Fiscal 2008,
Direct Initiatives contributes 14.09% of the total consolidated revenues of Educomp.

SHARE DATA
Market Cap Rs.3647.25 Crs
Price Rs.1898.00
BSE Sensex 9459.34
BSE Code 532696
NSE Code INE216H01019
Face Value Rs.10
52-Week High/Low Rs.4219/1331
Index BSE 100 ,BSE Mid Cap
Group A
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Listed on BSE/NSE 13th January 2006

Shareholding pattern(%)
Promoters 55.03%
FII's 6.97%
Public and Others 38.00%

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Public and
Others
P romoters
38%
FII's
Promoters P ublic and Others
55%
FII's
7%

MONTHLY HIGH AND LOW VALUE OF SHARE PRICE OF


EDUCOMP SOLUTION PVT.LTD
MONTH HIGH LOW

PRICE DATE PRICE DATE


MARCH 4,309.00 3-Mar-08 2,901.00 10-Mar-08
2008
APRIL 2008 4,219.00* 28-April-08 3,380.00 3-April-08

MAY 2008 4,185.00 23-May-08 3,651.00 12-May-08

JUNE 2008 4,065.00 2-June-08 2,569.00 30-June-08

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JULY 2008 3,589.00 24-Jul-08 2,320.00 1-Jul-08

AUG 2008 3,841.00 29-Aug-08 3,099.00 1-Aug-08

SEPT 2008 4,020.00 1-Sep-08 2,985.00 18-Sep-08

OCT 2008 3,449.00 1-Oct-08 1,515.00 27-Oct-08

NOV 2008 2,825.00 5-Nov-08 1,627.00 20-Nov-08

DEC 2008 2,865.00 22-Dec-08 1,982.15 2-Dec-08

JAN 2009 2,722.00 7-Jan-09 1,375.00 21-Jan-09

FEB 2009 2,177.00 19-Feb-09 1,331.00** 6-Feb-09

MARCH 2,039.90 17-Mar-09 1,473.60 6-Mar-09


2009

*Note: It was also company 52-weeks high as on 20-march-09


** It was also company 52-weeks low as on 20-march-09

➢ As the high/low for every month is specified here, we can determine the
difference which is highest in percentage for the particular month.
➢ In the month of October 2008, we can see the kind of volatility present in
share price of Educomp as it is having the difference of 48.85% within high
and low in the equity report for the month.

MONTHWISE HIGHEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INTRADAY


HIGH AND LOW PRICE OF EDUCOMP SOLUTION PVT.LTD

MONTH DATE HIGH LOW DIFFERENCE

MARCH 2008 10-Mar-08 3,504.00 2,901.00 603.00

APRIL 2008 2-Apr-08 3,950.00 3,530.00 420.00

MAY 2008 13-May-08 4,009.00 3,730.00 279.00

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JUNE 2008 24-Jun-08 3,310.00 2,931.00 379.00

JULY 2008 23-Jul-08 3,579.90 3,102.00 477.90

AUG 2008 12-Aug-08 3,619.70 3,292.20 327.50

SEPT 2008 19-Sep-08 3,880.00 3,371.00 509.00

OCT 2008 29-Oct-08 2,400.10 1,830.00 570.10

NOV 2008 19-Nov-08 2,406.90 1,875.00 531.90

DEC 2008 18-Dec-08 2,674.00 2,305.25 368.75

JAN 2009 21-Jan-09 1,932.00 1,375.00 557.00

FEB 2009 10-Feb-09 1,968.00 1,595.00 373.00

MARCH 2009 13-Mar-09 1,793.00 1,585.15 207.85

Margin
Average Difference between the day High and day Low in the last one year for
Educomp Solution is at Rs.230 and for last three month is Rs.120 .If on an average
we take 10-12% of this as a risk free return then it comes out anywhere between Rs.
14-16 which is margin at 0% risk.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY,


FEBRUARY, AND MARCH 2009

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January 2009
3,000.00

2,500.00

2,000.00 Resistance Level


1,500.00 High
Low
1,000.00
Close
500.00
Support Level
0.00
09

09

09

09

09

09

09
09

09

09

09

09

09

09

09
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
1-
1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-

1-
-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0
04

08

12

16
02

06

10

14

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

The stock has seen a downtrend for past few months, we have taken Share High, Low
and closing price into consideration in order to determine the difference between Day
high and day low which is significantly.

During January the Support level was 1750, and the Resistance level was 2105, and
each time it has broken the resistance or support we have reported a move of 30-40
point downside or upside.
F e b r u ar y 2 009
2,500.00

2,000.00

1,500.00
Hig h
1,000.00 L ow
C lose
500.00

0.00
9

09

09

09

09

09

09

09
09

09

09

09

09
00

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
-2

2-

2-

2-

2-

2-
2-

2-

2-

2-

2-

2-

2-
02

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0
-

04

10

16

22
02

06

08

12

14

18

20

24

26

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R.D. Engineering College
For the month of February, the stock declined due to some of the rumours about the
company accounting fudging case, but was resolved very well by the Management . It
has been able to break the previous month support level.

So it has attained new its 52 week low price level. Support level was 1500 points and
the Resistance level was 2050 points. Even the market sentiments were not going
with the stock.

March 2009
2,500.00

2,000.00
Resistance Level
1,500.00
High
1,000.00 Low
Close
500.00

0.00
09

09

09

09

09

09

09

09

09

09
20
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
3-

3-

3-

3-

3-

3-

3-

3-

3-

3-
-0

-0

-0

-0

-0

-0
-0

-0

-0

-0
02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

March month remained positive for the market as a result this script continues to
achieve new high in this time frame. The gap between Low and High was
significantly low and closing price was closer to the highest price on all the trading
day. Support level was 1680 points and resistant level was 1900 points.

Looking at this data we have come to the conclusion that Educomp Solution followed
market trend and investors were optimistic and Profit booking was reasonably low.

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JANUARY EQUITY CHARTING
W
eeklyChart5Jan-9Jan
3,000.00

2,5
00.00

2,000.00

1
,5
00.00

1
,000.00

5
00.00

0.00
1
/5/2009 1
/6/2009 1
/7
D/2
a0
t0
e9 1
/8/2009 1
/9/2009

• HIGH 2643 5-JAN-2009


• LOW 2127 9-JAN-2009
• fall of Rs.516 within a week
• Analyst recommendation: To be away from the stock price as it has been hit
hardly during the first week of January.
• Resistance Level: Rs.2650
Share Price (Rs.)

• Support Level: Rs.2100

WeeklyChart12Jan-16Jan
2,100.00
2,050.00
2,000.00
1,950.00
1,900.00
9

1,850.00
0

0
0
0

0
/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
2

6
/1

/1

/1

/1

/1

D
ate
1

• HIGH 2088 15 -JAN-2009


• LOW 1535 16-JAN-2009
• Fall of Rs.553 with in a week
• Analyst recommendation: Accounts fudging allegation has made the share price
to move in the negative way.
• Resistance Level: Rs.2050
• Support Level: Rs.1500
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R.D. Engineering College
Share Price (Rs.)

W
eeklyC
hart1
9Ja
n -2
3Ja
n
2
,50
0.0
0
2
,00
0.0
0
1
,50
0.0
0
1
,00
0.0
0
5
00.0
0
9

9
0

0
0
.00
0

0
2
2

2
/

/
1
9

3
/1

/2

/2

/2

/2
D
ate
1

• HIGH 1796 29-JAN-2009


• LOW 1720 17-JAN-2009
• Fall of Rs.76 within a week
• Analyst recommendation: Change occurred but minimal change because of the
downside happened in the third week.
• Resistance Level: Rs.1800
• Support Level: Rs.1650
Share Price (Rs.)

W
eeklyChart27Jan-30Jan
1,820.00
1,800.00
1,780.00
1,760.00
1,740.00
1,720.00
1,700.00
9

9
0

1,680.00
0

0
0

0
2

2
2

2
/

/
7

0
8

/3
/2

/2

/2

D
Eate
1

• HIGH 1825 27-JAN-2009


• LOW 1652.55 27-JAN-2009
• Rise of Rs.53 Within a week

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FEBRUARY EQUITY CHARTING
SHRE PRICE

R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T

2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00 Series1
50 0.00
9

9
0.0
0
0

0
0
0

0
/2

/2

/2
/2

/2
/2

/3

/4

/6
/5
2

D
ATE

• HIGH 1695 2-FEB-2009


• LOW 1394 5-FEB-2009
• fall of Rs.304 within a week
• Analyst recommendation: Allegation from ministry has pressurized and had hit
hardly during the first week of February.
• Resistance Level: Rs.1550
• Support Level: Rs.1400
SHARE PRICE

R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T

2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00 S
eries1
1,000.00
50 0.00
9

9
9

9
9

0.00
0

0
0

/2

/2

2
/2

/
0

3
/9

/1

/1

/1

/1
2

D
A TE

• HIGH 2097 13-FEB-2009


• LOW 1597 09-FEB-2009
• Fall of Rs.600 within a week

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• Analyst recommendation: FII taking in the position of share price for the time
period of the second week.
• There has been gradual increase in the the share price of the stock of educomp
solution.
• Resistance Level: Rs.2100
• Support Level: Rs.1900
SHARE PRICE

R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T

2,200.00
2,100.00
2,000.00
1,900.00 S
eries1
1,800.00
1,700.00
9

9
1,600.00
0

1,500.00 0
0

0
0

0
2

2
/2

/2

/2
/

/
7

0
6

/1

/1

/2
/1

/1
2

D
ATE

• HIGH 2177.50 19-FEB-2009


• LOW 1711.10 20-FEB-2009
• Fall of Rs.400 within a week
• Resistance Level: Rs.2100
• Support Level: Rs.1700
SHARE PRICE

R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T

1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 Series1
9

1,500.00
0

0
0

0
/2

/2

/2

/2
4

7
/2

/2

/2

/2
2

D
A TE

• HIGH 1725.00 24-FEB-2009


• LOW 1480.00 26-FEB-2009
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R.D. Engineering College
• Fall of Rs.120 within a week
• Resistance Level: Rs.1630
• Support Level: Rs.1550

MARCH EQUITY CHARTING


SHARE PRICE

R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T

1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 S
eries1
1,500.00
9

1,450.00
0

0
0

0
0

0
/2

/2
/2

/2

/2
/2

/3

/5

/6
/4
3

D
ATE

• HIGH 1605 2-MAR-2009


• LOW 1530 3-MAR-2009
• Fall of Rs.75 within a week
• Resistance Level:Rs.1600
• Support Level: Rs.1550
SHARE PRICE

R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T

1,800.00
1,700.00
1,600.00 Series1
1,500.00
9

1,400.00
9

1,300.00
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

/2

/2

/2

/2
/2

3
/9

/1

/1

/1

/1
3

D
A TE

• HIGH 1762 13-MAR-2009

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R.D. Engineering College
• LOW 1513 09-MAR-2009
• Rise of Rs.249 within a week
• Resistance Level: Rs.1750
• Support Level: Rs.1500
SHARE PRICE

R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T

2,000.0
0
1,950.0
0
S
erie
s1
1,900.0
0
9

9
0

1,850.0
0
0

0
0

0
2

/2

2
/

/
7

0
6
/1

/1

/1

/1

/2
3

D
ATE

• HIGH 2039.90 17-MAR-2009


• LOW 1826.00 20-MAR-2009
• Rise of Rs.200 within a week
• Resistance Level:Rs.2000
• Support Level: Rs.1900

ResearchReport

2,250.00
2,200.00
2,1
50.00
2,1
00.00
Series1
2,050.00
2,000.00
1
,950.00
1
,900.00
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/200
9

Date

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R.D. Engineering College
• HIGH 2255.00 27-MAR-2009
• LOW 1940 13-MAR-2009
• Rise of Rs.250 within a week
• Resistance Level: Rs.2300
• Support Level: Rs.2050

Financials

Good 2QFY09 results: %age share of revenue among various segments


has changed significantly.

2nd quarter saw huge increase in contribution from SmartClass and Retail
line of business, going forward SmartClass, will continue to remain main driver
for growth for next three financial years.

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R.D. Engineering College
RATIO ANALYSIS:
Profitability Ratios Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06
%
Operating Profit 48.2 48.12 50.58
margin
Gross profit Margin 35.87 39.31 40.44
Net Profit Margin 25.51 25.54 25.89
Turnover Ratios
Inventory Turnover 185.88 32.75 30.1
Ratio
Debtor Turnover 2.29 2.16 2.08
Ratio
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.27 1.67 2.76
Ratio
Solvency Ratio
Current Ratio 5.41 4.5 5.33
Debt Equity Ratio 1.28 1.09 0.11
Interest Covering 21.69 25.81 37.13
Ratio
Valuation Ratio
P/E adjusted 35 110 na
P/BV 18 24 31

VALUATION RATIOS AS ON 31ST MARCH 2009


EPS 47.87

RETURN ON AVERAGE EQUITY 24.43%


DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 25% (02-06-2008)

P/E RATIO 50.32 (23-03-2009)

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R.D. Engineering College
PEG RATIO 2.625

Analysis of Ratios:-

Company’s Debt Equity Ratio has increased significantly from 0.11 in 2006 to
1.27 in 2008. Company has already made financial closure of secured debt for
capital expenditure requirement for K-12 business up to the year 2011. Company’
Interest coverage ratio remains comfortable as most of the debt of the company is
in the form of FCCB maturing in 2012. Company had high inventory turnover
ratio as company has built up inventory of installing computers for its SmartClass
and ICT business.

Future Outlook

• Company is poised to continue perform exceeding well with more


than 70% revenue growth for period FY09-FY11 and margins staying
above 45%.

• Net Profits are expected to rise 5 fold from Rs.700 million in 2008 to
3566 million in FY11giving a CAGR of 70%.

• Company’s P/E to growth ratio is highly discounted for FY10 and


FY11, as company is expected to continue its growth trajectory of 30%
for several more years.

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R.D. Engineering College
Growth Outlook
Company is likely to post very high growth rate for a long time. Revenue figures are
expected to show a CAGR of 70% for the period 2009-2011, 35% for the period
2011-2014 and 20% for the period 2014-2016.

We forecast strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see limited risks to
estimates given.EBITDA margins are likely to improve as revenue share of high
margin retail and online business is likely to improve considerably. We expect ROE to
double and settle in the range between 30-35%.
Company has forward P/E of 7.5 for FY-2011 on constant prices while growth rate is
expected to be upwards of 30% for year FY11-FY14. Company will continue to shine
even in downturn as spending on Education and price levels are highly resilient to
economic downturns.Another positive for this company is its short payback period on
its investment as significant business comes from long term contracts of 5
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R.D. Engineering College
years.Company understands its strengths and challenges ahead to deal with these
challenges. Company has recognized four areas of opportunities/ strengths as under:

1. Large market opportunity(scale)


2. Create barriers of entry for other players through strong IP and
product differentiation.
3. High operating margins (50%+)
4. Experience and ability to execute

Risks:
• Due to high margins and nature of business, company might face competition
from new entrants.
• Company is in high growth phase; PEG (P/E to Growth) ratio will be an
important consideration for the stock. Any disappointment
on Earnings Growth numbers will see a downward price movement.
• Free cash flows to remain negative for a while; if credit market tightens or
company fails to deliver on expectation, raising fresh
funds will be a problem.
• If government reduces spending on education, earnings and growth potential are
likely to taper down.
• Company faces huge execution risks in its Edu-Infra business. Also
company has been very aggressive in its growth plans, both
Organic and Inorganic, and it would be very difficult to manage such
growth plans under unforeseen circumstances (E.g.-Key
Man Risk, Death of MD/Promoter).

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE MONTH

Market is at the resistant level (SENSEX 10,300 points as on 15th May, 2009) and
this share price is highly correlated with market so for next 1 month Educomp share price
is expected to achieve a new support level of 2670 points but looking at the international
market we can say that international investors are bit optimistic so market can sustain at
this high for some more time.

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R.D. Engineering College
News from India
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo Rate and CRR, which can keep
market interest for some more time. Inflation is all time Low (As on 14 th May 2009) etc.
Further stimulus announced made by the govt. of India can uplift the market to 15000,
but 4th quarters result and annual result would be the major focus for the investor and it
would also decide the direction of the market in the upcoming months.

“Looking at the above given information we can project the


new Support Level at 2770* points and Resistance Level at
3540* points for the Second and third week of May”.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR THE COMING MONTHS OF


2009
Beginning of June news could be favorable but will the same Support
and Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our team have done research on
it and made the conclusion that it will not be maintaining the same levels.

REASONS:
1- Market fall is expected because it cannot sustain at this level for longer time
(Market as on 2nd April, 2009).
2- Company 35-40% Revenue of total revenue comes in this quarter alone.
3- 4th Quarter Results are expected in the month of April and it may be good news
for the investors, particular for education sector.
4- General Election is not far away and market will take some rest during this time
frame.

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R.D. Engineering College
“Looking at the above given information I projected that the
new Support Level for the Month of June will be 2700* points
and Resistance level will be 3500* points”.

Why Buy: Valuations at 22x FY09E, 12.25x FY2010E and 8.5x FY2011E, on the
lower side look cheap. More over company is expected to post CAGR of 50%+ in
revenues for next four years. EBITDA margins for 2QFY09 excluding extraordinary
forex losses were around 60%. Earnings have been forecasted keeping EBITDA on the
lower side at 45-50%.Higher EBITDA will lead to further revision in Earnings Estimate.
Continue recessionary conditions will make this stock more attractive relatively as
Education segment remains recession proof.

Downside Risks:
1. Short Term Market sentiments (High beta of 1.4)
2. Lower Earnings than market expectations
3. Execution/Regulatory/Key Man Risks
4. Tight credit conditions will pose difficulty for company to raise
more cash at cheaper interest rates.

SWOT ANALYSIS OF EDUCOMP

Strengths:
• Global R&D facility.
• Retention of the man-power is the best in the industry.
• Impressive list of clientele.
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R.D. Engineering College
• Relatively lower receivable compared to the industry average.

Weaknesses:
• Low operating margin of the other group companies.
• Free floating stock is very less.

Opportunities:
• In the branded product category.
• In the consultancy area.
• In the emerging technology areas like Blue Tooth, WAP etc.

Threats:
• Increasing cost of human capital.
• Slowdown in the US economy.
• Appreciation of Indian Currency
• Will face fierce competition in the areas of e-business and ASP services.

INDIAN BANKING SECTOR


The Indian Banking industry, which is governed by the Banking Regulation Act of India,
1949 can be broadly classified into two major categories, non-scheduled banks and
scheduled banks. Scheduled banks comprise commercial banks and the co-operative
banks. In terms of ownership, commercial banks can be further grouped into nationalized
banks, the State Bank of India and its group banks, regional rural banks and private
sector banks (the old/ new domestic and foreign). These banks have over 67,000
branches spread across the country.

The first phase of financial reforms resulted in the nationalization of 14 major banks in
1969 and resulted in a shift from Class banking to Mass banking. This in turn resulted in
a significant growth in the geographical coverage of banks. Every bank had to earmark a
minimum percentage of their loan portfolio to sectors identified as “priority sectors”. The
manufacturing sector also grew during the 1970s in protected environs and the banking
sector was a critical source. The next wave of reforms saw the nationalization of 6 more

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commercial banks in 1980. Since then the number of scheduled commercial banks
increased four-fold and the number of bank branches increased eight-fold.

After the second phase of financial sector reforms and liberalization of the sector in the
early nineties, the Public Sector Banks (PSB) s found it extremely difficult to compete
with the new private sector banks and the foreign banks. The new private sector banks
first made their appearance after the guidelines permitting them were issued in January
1993. Eight new private sector banks are presently in operation. These banks due to their
late start have access to state-of-the-art technology, which in turn helps them to save on
manpower costs and provide better services.

During the year 2000, the State Bank Of India (SBI) and its 7 associates accounted for a
25 percent share in deposits and 28.1 percent share in credit. The 20 nationalized banks
accounted for 53.2 percent of the deposits and 47.5 percent of credit during the same
period. The share of foreign banks (numbering 42), regional rural banks and other
scheduled commercial banks accounted for 5.7 percent, 3.9 percent and 12.2 percent
respectively in deposits and 8.41 percent, 3.14 percent and 12.85 percent respectively in
credit during the year 2000.

Current Scenario
The industry is currently in a transition phase. On the one hand, the PSBs, which are the
mainstay of the Indian Banking system are in the process of shedding their flab in terms
of excessive manpower, excessive non Performing Assets (Npas) and excessive
governmental equity, while on the other hand the private sector banks are consolidating
themselves through mergers and acquisitions.
PSBs, which currently account for more than 78 percent of total banking industry assets
are saddled with NPAs (a mind-boggling Rs 830 billion in 2000), falling revenues from
traditional sources, lack of modern technology and a massive workforce while the new
private sector banks are forging ahead and rewriting the traditional banking business
model by way of their sheer innovation and service. The PSBs are of course currently
working out challenging strategies even as 20 percent of their massive employee strength

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has dwindled in the wake of the successful Voluntary Retirement Schemes (VRS)
schemes.

The private players however cannot match the PSB’s great reach, great size and access to
low cost deposits. Therefore one of the means for them to combat the PSBs has been
through the merger and acquisition (M& A) route. Over the last two years, the industry
has witnessed several such instances. For instance, Hdfc Bank’s merger with Times Bank
Icici Bank’s acquisition of ITC Classic, Gulf Bulls Finance and Bank of Madura.
Centurion Bank, Indusind Bank, Bank of Punjab, Vysya Bank are said to be on the
lookout. The UTI bank- Global Trust Bank merger however opened a pandora’s box and
brought about the realization that all was not well in the functioning of many of the
private sector banks.

Private sector Banks have pioneered internet banking, phone banking, anywhere banking,
mobile banking, debit cards, Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs) and combined various
other services and integrated them into the mainstream banking arena, while the PSBs are
still grappling with disgruntled employees in the aftermath of successful VRS schemes.
Also, following India’s commitment to the W To agreement in respect of the services
sector, foreign banks, including both new and the existing ones, have been permitted to
open up to 12 branches a year with effect from 1998-99 as against the earlier stipulation
of 8 branches.

Talks of government diluting their equity from 51 percent to 33 percent in November


2000 has also opened up a new opportunity for the takeover of even the PSBs. The FDI
rules being more rationalized in Q1FY02 may also pave the way for foreign banks taking
the M& A route to acquire willing Indian partners.

Meanwhile the economic and corporate sector slowdown has led to an increasing number
of banks focusing on the retail segment. Many of them are also entering the new vistas of
Insurance. Banks with their phenomenal reach and a regular interface with the retail
investor are the best placed to enter into the insurance sector. Banks in India have been
allowed to provide fee-based insurance services without risk participation, invest in an
insurance company for providing infrastructure and services support and set up of a
separate joint-venture insurance company with risk participation.
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Aggregate Performance of the Banking Industry

Aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks increased at a compounded annual


average growth rate (Cagr) of 17.8 percent during 1969-99, while bank credit expanded
at a Cagr of 16.3 percent per annum. Banks’ investments in government and other
approved securities recorded a Cagr of 18.8 percent per annum during the same period.

In FY01 the economic slowdown resulted in a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of
only 6.0 percent as against the previous year’s 6.4 percent. The WPI Index (a measure of
inflation) increased by 7.1 percent as against 3.3 percent in FY00. Similarly, money
supply (M3) grew by around 16.2 percent as against 14.6 percent a year ago.

The growth in aggregate deposits of the scheduled commercial banks at 15.4 percent in
FY01 percent was lower than that of 19.3 percent in the previous year, while the growth
in credit by SCBs slowed down to 15.6 percent in FY01 against 23 percent a year ago.
The industrial slowdown also affected the earnings of listed banks. The net profits of 20
listed banks dropped by 34.43 percent in the quarter ended March 2001. Net profits grew
by 40.75 percent in the first quarter of 2000-2001, but dropped to 4.56 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2000-2001.

On the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) front while most banks managed to fulfill the
norms, it was a feat achieved with its own share of difficulties. The CAR, which at
present is 9.0 percent, is likely to be hiked to 12.0 percent by the year 2004 based on the
Basle Committee recommendations. Any bank that wishes to grow its assets needs to also
shore up its capital at the same time so that its capital as a percentage of the risk-
weighted assets is maintained at the stipulated rate. While the IPO route was a much-
fancied one in the early ‘90s, the current scenario doesn’t look too attractive for bank
majors.

Consequently, banks have been forced to explore other avenues to shore up their capital
base. While some are wooing foreign partners to add to the capital others are employing

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the M& A route. Many are also going in for right issues at prices considerably lower than
the market prices to woo the investors.

Interest Rate Scene

The two years, post the East Asian crises in 1997-98 saw a climb in the global interest
rates. It was only in the later half of FY01 that the US Fed cut interest rates. India has
however remained more or less insulated. The past 2 years in our country was
characterized by a mounting intention of the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) to steadily
reduce interest rates resulting in a narrowing differential between global and domestic
rates.
The RBI has been affecting bank rate and CRR cuts at regular intervals to improve
liquidity and reduce rates. The only exception was in July 2000 when the RBI increased
the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to stem the fall in the rupee against the dollar. The steady
fall in the interest rates resulted in squeezed margins for the banks in general.

Governmental Policy

After the first phase and second phase of financial reforms, in the 1980s commercial
banks began to function in a highly regulated environment, with administered interest
rate structure, quantitative restrictions on credit flows, high reserve requirements and
reservation of a significant proportion of lendable resources for the priority and the
government sectors. The restrictive regulatory norms led to the credit rationing for the
private sector and the interest rate controls led to the unproductive use of credit and low
levels of investment and growth. The resultant ‘financial repression’ led to decline in
productivity and efficiency and erosion of profitability of the banking sector in general.

This was when the need to develop a sound commercial banking system was felt. This
was worked out mainly with the help of the recommendations of the Committee on the
Financial System (Chairman: Shri M. Narasimham), 1991. The resultant financial sector
reforms called for interest rate flexibility for banks, reduction in reserve requirements,
and a number of structural measures. Interest rates have thus been steadily deregulated in
the past few years with banks being free to fix their Prime Lending Rates(PLRs) and
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R.D. Engineering College
deposit rates for most banking products. Credit market reforms included introduction of
new instruments of credit, changes in the credit delivery system and integration of
functional roles of diverse players, such as, banks, financial institutions and non-banking
financial companies (Nbfcs). Domestic Private Sector Banks were allowed to be set up,
PSBs were allowed to access the markets to shore up their Cars.

Implications Of Some Recent Policy Measures

The allowing of PSBs to shed manpower and dilution of equity are moves that will lend
greater autonomy to the industry. In order to lend more depth to the capital markets the
RBI had in November 2000 also changed the capital market exposure norms from 5
percent of bank’s incremental deposits of the previous year to 5 percent of the bank’s
total domestic credit in the previous year. But this move did not have the desired effect,
as in, while most banks kept away almost completely from the capital markets, a few
private sector banks went overboard and exceeded limits and indulged in dubious stock
market deals. The chances of seeing banks making a comeback to the stock markets are
therefore quite unlikely in the near future.

The move to increase Foreign Direct Investment FDI limits to 49 percent from 20 percent
during the first quarter of this fiscal came as a welcome announcement to foreign players
wanting to get a foot hold in the Indian Markets by investing in willing Indian partners
who are starved of networth to meet CAR norms. Ceiling for FII investment in
companies was also increased from 24.0 percent to 49.0 percent and have been included
within the ambit of FDI investment.

The abolishment of interest tax of 2.0 percent in budget 2001-02 will help banks pass on
the benefit to the borrowers on new loans leading to reduced costs and easier lending
rates. Banks will also benefit on the existing loans wherever the interest tax cost element
has already been built into the terms of the loan. The reduction of interest rates on
various small savings schemes from 11 percent to 9.5 percent in Budget 2001-02 was a
much awaited move for the banking industry and in keeping with the reducing interest
rate scenario, however the small investor is not very happy with the move.

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Some of the not so good measures however like reducing the limit for tax deducted at
source (TDS) on interest income from deposits to Rs 2,500 from the earlier level of Rs
10,000, in Budget 2001-02, had met with disapproval from the banking fraternity who
feared that the move would prove counterproductive and lead to increased fragmentation
of deposits, increased volumes and transaction costs. The limit was thankfully partially
restored to Rs 5000 at the time of passing the Finance Bill in the Parliament.
April 2001-Credit Policy Implications The rationalization of export credit norms in will
bestow greater operational flexibility on banks, and also reduce the borrowing costs for
exporters. Thus this move could trigger exports growth in the future. Banks can also hope
to earn increased revenue with the interest paid by RBI on CRR balances being increased
from 4.0 percent to 6.0 percent.

The stock market scam brought out the unholy nexus between the Cooperative banks and
stockbrokers. In order to usher in greater prudence in their operations, the RBI has barred
Urban Cooperative Banks from financing the stock market operations and is also in the
process of setting up of a new apex supervisory body for them. Meanwhile the foreign
banks have a bone to pick with the RBI. The RBI had announced that forex loans are not
to be calculated as a part of Tier-1 Capital for drawing up exposure limits to companies
effective 1 April 2002. This will force foreign banks either to infuse fresh capital to
maintain the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) or pare their asset base. Further, the RBI has
also sought to keep foreign competition away from the nascent net banking segment in
India by allowing only Indian banks with a local physical presence, to offer Internet
banking

On the macro economic front, GDP is expected to grow by 6.0 to 6.5 percent while the
projected expansion in broad money (M3) for 2001-02 is about 14.5 percent. Credit and
deposits are both expected to grow by 15-16 percent in FY02. India's foreign exchange
reserves should reach US$50.0 billion in FY02 and the Indian rupee should hold steady.

The interest rates are likely to remain stable this fiscal based on an expected downward
trend in inflation rate, sluggish pace of non-oil imports and likelihood of declining global
interest rates. The domestic banking industry is forecasted to witness a higher degree of
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mergers and acquisitions in the future. Banks are likely to opt for the universal banking
approach with a stronger retail approach. Technology and superior customer service will
continue to be the imperatives for success in this industry.

Public Sector banks that imbibe new concepts in banking, turn tech savvy, leaner and
meaner post VRS and obtain more autonomy by keeping governmental stake to the
minimum can succeed in effectively taking on the private sector banks by virtue of their
sheer size. Weaker PSU banks are unlikely to survive in the long run. Consequently, they
are likely to be either acquired by stronger players or will be forced to look out for other
strategies to infuse greater capital and optimize their operations.

Foreign banks are likely to succeed in their niche markets and be the innovators in terms
of technology introduction in the domestic scenario. The outlook for the private sector
banks indeed looks to be more promising vis-à-vis other banks. While their focused
operations, lower but more productive employee force etc will stand them good, possible
acquisitions of PSU banks will definitely give them the much needed scale of operations
and access to lower cost of funds. These banks will continue to be the early technology
adopters in the industry, thus increasing their efficiencies. Also, they have been amongst
the first movers in the lucrative insurance segment. Already, banks such as Icici Bank
and Hdfc Bank have forged alliances with Prudential Life and Standard Life respectively.
This is one segment that is likely to witness a greater deal of action in the future. In the
near term, the low interest rate scenario is likely to affect the spreads of majors. This is
likely to result in a greater focus on better asset-liability management procedures.
Consequently, only banks that strive hard to increase their share of fee-based revenues
are likely to do better in the future.

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ICICI BANK:
ICICI Bank is India's second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 3,744.10 billion (US$
77 billion) at December 31, 2008 and profit after tax Rs. 30.14 billion for the nine
months ended December 31, 2008. The Bank has a network of 1,419 branches and about
4,644 ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries. ICICI Bank offers a wide range of
banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a
variety of delivery channels and through its specialized

subsidiaries and affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance,
venture capital and asset management. The Bank currently has subsidiaries in the United
Kingdom, Russia and Canada, branches in United States, Singapore, Bahrain, Hong
Kong, Sri Lanka, Qatar and Dubai International Finance Centre and representative
offices in United Arab Emirates, China, South Africa, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia
and Indonesia. Our UK subsidiary has established branches in Belgium and Germany.

ICICI Bank's equity shares are listed in India on Bombay Stock Exchange and the
National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs)
are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

History
ICICI Bank was originally promoted in 1994 by ICICI Limited, an Indian financial
institution, and was its wholly-owned subsidiary. ICICI's shareholding in ICICI Bank
was reduced to 46% through a public offering of shares in India in fiscal 1998, an equity
offering in the form of ADRs listed on the NYSE in fiscal 2000, ICICI Bank's acquisition
of Bank of Madura Limited in an all-stock amalgamation in fiscal 2001, and secondary
market sales by ICICI to institutional investors in fiscal 2001 and fiscal 2002. ICICI was
formed in 1955 at the initiative of the World Bank, the Government of India and
representatives of Indian industry. The principal objective was to create a development
financial institution for providing medium-term and long-term project financing to Indian
businesses. In the 1990s, ICICI transformed its business from a development financial
institution offering only project finance to a diversified financial services group offering
a wide variety of products and services, both directly and through a number of
subsidiaries and affiliates like ICICI Bank. In 1999, ICICI become the first Indian
company and the first bank or financial institution from non-Japan Asia to be listed on
the NYSE.
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After consideration of various corporate structuring alternatives in the context of the
emerging competitive scenario in the Indian banking industry, and the move towards
universal banking, the managements of ICICI and ICICI Bank formed the view that the
merger of ICICI with ICICI Bank would be the optimal strategic alternative for both
entities, and would create the optimal legal structure for the ICICI group's universal
banking strategy. The merger would enhance value for ICICI shareholders through the
merged entity's access to low-cost deposits, greater opportunities for earning fee-based
income and the ability to participate in the payments system and provide transaction-
banking services. The merger would enhance value for ICICI Bank shareholders through
a large capital base and scale of operations, seamless access to ICICI's strong corporate
relationships built up over five decades, entry into new business segments, higher market
share in various business segments, particularly fee-based services, and access to the vast
talent pool of ICICI and its subsidiaries.

In October 2001, the Boards of Directors of ICICI and ICICI Bank approved
the merger of ICICI and two of its wholly-owned retail finance subsidiaries, ICICI
Personal Financial Services Limited and ICICI Capital Services Limited, with ICICI
Bank. The merger was approved by shareholders of ICICI and ICICI Bank in January
2002, by the High Court of Gujarat at Ahmedabad in March 2002, and by the High Court
of Judicature at Mumbai and the Reserve Bank of India in April 2002. Consequent to the
merger, the ICICI group's financing and banking operations, both wholesale and retail,
have been integrated in a single entity.

SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES

At March 31, 2008, ICICI Bank had 17 subsidiaries as listed below:

• Domestic Subsidiaries International Subsidiaries


• ICICI Securities Limited ICICI Bank UK PLC
• ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Limited ICICI Bank Canada
• ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited ICICI Wealth Management
Inc.1
• ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited ICICI Bank Eurasia
Limited Liability Company

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R.D. Engineering College
• ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited ICICI Securities
Holdings Inc.2
• ICICI Prudential Trust Limited ICICI Securities Inc.3
• ICICI Venture Funds Management Company Limited ICICI International
Limited
• ICICI Home Finance Company Limited
• ICICI Investment Management Company Limited
• ICICI Trusteeship Services Limited

Recent developments
• Completed Rs200b follow on offering
• Amalgamated Sangli Bank with itself

Board Members

➢ Mr. N. Vaghul, Chairman

➢ Mr. Sridar Iyengar

➢ Mr. Lakshmi N. Mittal

➢ Mr. Narendra Murkumbi

➢ Dr. Anup K. Pujari

➢ Mr. Anupam Puri

➢ Mr. M.K. Sharma

➢ Mr. P.M. Sinha

➢ Prof. Marti G. Subrahmanyam

➢ Mr. T.S. Vijayan

➢ Mr. V. Prem Watsa

➢ Mr. K.V. Kamath, Managing Director & CEO

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➢ Ms. Chanda Kochhar, Joint Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer

➢ Mr. V. Vaidyanathan, Executive Director

➢ Mr. Sonjoy Chatterjee, Executive Director

➢ Mr. K. Ramkumar, Executive Director

SHARE DATA
Company Name ICICI BANK
Market Cap Rs. 389.03B
Price Rs.349.45
BSE Sensex 9459.34
BSE Code 532174
NSE Code INE090A01013
Face Value Rs.10
52-Week High/Low Rs. 960.90/252.75
Beta of the Company 1.60
Returns1 Year -56.81 %
Weightage in SENSEX 5.32
Co-efficient of Determination 0.79
(R^2)
Free-float adj. factor as on 1
31/04/09
Index BSE 100 ,BSE Mid Cap
Group A

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R.D. Engineering College
MFs invested in this company
Scheme % of scheme asset size
Templeton Fixed Horizon Fund 99.95
Series 1 - 13 M - Institutional
Plan - Dividend
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7 - A - Growth
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7 - B - Growth
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7 - A - Dividend
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7-B-

Q3-2009: Key highlights


• 25% quarter-on-quarter increase in profit after tax to Rs. 12.72 billion in Q3 2009
from Rs. 10.14 billion in Q2-2009.
• Profit after tax of Rs. 12.30 billion in Q3-2008
• Capitalized on opportunities in declining interest rate scenario: treasury gains of
Rs. 9.76 billion in Q3-2009
• 19% year-on-year decrease in operating & direct marketing agency expenses
despite substantial increase in branches
• Net interest margin maintained at 2.4%
• Strategy of conscious moderation in credit growth

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• Contraction in standalone loan book during the year to Rs. 2,125.21 billion at
December 31, 2008
• Net NPA ratio of 1.95% at December 31, 2008

Share Holding Pattern

Share holding pattern

7.68, 12% 11.52, 18% Banks, Fin insti &


0.41, 1% insurance
6.49, 10% FII's

Pvt Corporate bodies

NRI's,OCB's& foreign
others
General Public
39.01, 59%

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MONTHWISE HIGH AND LOW VALUE OF SHARE
Month Monthly High in (Rs.) Monthly Lowin (Rs.)

Date Value Date Value


Jan-08 14-Jan-08 1465.00 22-Jan-08 1005.55

Feb-08 4-Feb-08 1245.20 11-Feb-08 996.00

Mar-08 3-Mar-08 1065.00 18-Mar-08 720.00

Apr-08 28-Apr-08 947.00 1-Apr-08 732.00

May-08 5-May-08 960.90 30-May-08 778.10

Jun-08 18-Jun-08 826.00 30-Jun-08 611.50

Jul-08 24-Jul-08 779.70 16-Jul-08 515.10

Aug-08 12-Aug-08 779.70 1-Aug-08 610.00

Sep-08 4-Sep-08 729.90 30-Sep-08 458.00

Oct-08 1-Oct-08 565.00 27-Oct-08 282.15

Nov-08 5-Nov-08 491.00 21-Nov-08 308.10

Dec-08 18-Dec-08 480.90 2-Dec-08 305.00

Jan-09 7-Jan-09 537.95 27-Jan-09 358.10

Feb-09 10-Feb-09 441.95 27-Feb-09 311.25

Mar-09 27-Mar-09 387.40 6-Mar-09 252.75

PRICE OF ICICI BANK LTD.

Major Gain And Lose For ICICI BANK LTD. From Jan-08 To March-09

Five Major Gains For ICICI BANK in (%) terms


Date Prev.Close Day Close Change % Change

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13-Oct-08 364.1 425.3 61.20 16.81%

31-Oct-08 345.75 399.35 53.60 15.50%

18-Jul-08 551.2 617.6 66.40 12.05%

23-Jul-08 661.3 738.25 76.95 11.64%

25-Jan-08 1,134.00 1,259.25 125.25 11.04%

Five Major Loses For ICICI BANK in (%) terms


Date Prev.Close Day Close Change % Change
10-Oct-08 453.5 364.1 -89.40 -19.71%
24-Oct-08 365.45 310 -55.55 -15.20%
17-Mar-08 878.2 757.4 -120.80 -13.76%
29-Sep-08 561.25 493.3 -67.95 -12.11%
7-Jan-09 523.15 468.05 -55.10 -10.53%

MONTHLY MARGIN FOR ICICI BANK LTD.


Month Monthly Avg. Margin % Monthly Avg. Margin
Jan-08 92.985 7.449%
Feb-08 56.919 5.064%
Mar-08 63.986 7.528%
Apr-08 43.393 5.204%
May-08 32.278 3.677%
Jun-08 35.779 4.859%
Jul-08 45.559 7.359%
Aug-08 37.250 5.451%

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Sep-08 45.074 7.452%
Oct-08 46.538 11.595%
Nov-08 34.183 8.763%
Dec-08 29.074 7.184%
Jan-09 30.163 7.009%
Feb-09 20.392 5.368%
Mar-09 21.093 6.963%

Technical Analysis :

Performance of ICICI Bank Ltd. In last 1 year

Performance of ICICI Bank in last 1 year

1,600.00

1,400.00

1,200.00

1,000.00

800.00 Close

600.00

400.00

200.00

0.00
10/1/2008

11/1/2008

12/1/2008
1/1/2008

3/1/2008

9/1/2008

1/1/2009

3/1/2009
2/1/2008

4/1/2008

5/1/2008

6/1/2008

7/1/2008

8/1/2008

2/1/2009

Resistance level: Rs.760

Support Level: Rs.300

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R.D. Engineering College
• Rumours started surfacing about the bank’s overseas exposure and a run on its
deposits as on Oct’08
• Such rumours prompted some depositors to withdraw money
• The rescue mission helped ICICI Bank’s stocks to recoup heavy losses.

Resistance
Level:Rs93
0

Support
Level:Rs 790

Monthly Data :

ICICI Bank's Performance On May'08

1000
Resistance Level:Rs 940
950
Share Price

900
850 Support Level: Rs. 805 Series1
800
750
700
5/ 08

5/ 0 8

5/ 08

10 8

20 8
12 8

14 8

16 8

18 8

22 8

24 8

26 8

28 8

30 8

8
5/ 0 0

5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0

5/ 0 0

5/ 00

5/ 0 0

5/ 0 0

5/ 0 0

5/ 00

5/ 0 0

00
5/ 00
20

20
20

2
/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
2/

4/

6/

8/
5/

Date ➢ Reason-
As we could see the downturn of the stock in the month of May’08 the reason
was allotment of Equity shares under the ESOS, 2000. They allotted around
2.5lakh equity shares of face value of Rs10.

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ICICI Bank's Performance On June'08

RESISTANCE LEVELRs.780
900
800
SUPPORT LEVEL: Rs. 730
700
Share Price

600
500
Series1
400
300
200
100
0
6/ 0 8

6/ 0 8

12 8

14 8

18 8

20 8

22 8

28 8

30 8
6/ 0 8

10 8

16 8

24 8

26 8

8
6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0
00
6/ 0 0

6/ 0 0
6/ 00
20

20
20

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
2

/2

/2
2/

4/

6/

8/
6/

Date

➢ Reason- ICICI Bank informed about the payment of dividend & 14th Annual
General Meeting of the bank to be held in July 26, 2008, so we can say that the
share price would move up in July.

ICICI Bank's Performance On July'08


Resistance Level: Rs.
800 750
700
600
Share Price

500 Support Level : Rs. 505


400 Series1
300
200
100
0
7/ 0 8

7/ 0 8

7/ 0 8

11 8

15 8

17 8

23 8

29 8
7/ 0 8

13 8

19 8

21 8

25 8

27 8

31 8

8
7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0

00
7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0

7/ 0 0
7/ 00
20

20

20

20

2
/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
1/

3/

5/

7/

9/
7/

Date

➢ Reason- As we could see the rise in share price after the mid of July due to bank
income increased by 1485.6 as compared to quarter ended June 30, 2008.
➢ Second thing was increase in Interest rates for various tenors of retail Fixed
➢ Deposits by 0.75% to 1.00% w.e.f from Aug 1st, 2008.

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ICICI Bank's performance On Aug'09

900 Resistance
800 Level:Rs 790
700 Support
Share Price

600 level:Rs630.
500
Series1
400
300
200
100
0
15 8

23 8

29 8
8/ 0 8

8/ 0 8

8/ 0 8

8/ 0 8

11 8

13 8

17 8

19 8

21 8

25 8

27 8

8
8/ 0 0

8/ 0 0

8/ 0 0

8/ 0 0

8/ 0 0

8/ 0 0
00
8/ 0 0

8/ 0 0

8/ 0 0
8/ 00
20

20

20

20

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
1/

3/

5/

7/

9/
8/

Date

➢ Reason- ICICI had benefit from their Quarter 1st results, that’s why its price was
increased than they allotted equity shares to ESOS, 2000. But because of results
IC had manage some how.

ICICI Bank's Performance On Sept'08

800
700 Resistance Level:Rs. 725
600 Support Level: Rs. 550
Share Price

500
400 Series1
300
200
100
0
9/ 0 8

9/ 0 8

11 8

13 8

15 8

17 8

19 8

21 8

23 8

25 8

27 8

29 8

8
9/ 0 8

9/ 0 8

9/ 0 0

9/ 0 0

9/ 0 0

9/ 0 0

9/ 0 0

00
9/ 0 0

9/ 0 0

9/ 0 0

9/ 0 0
9/ 00
20

20

20

20

/2
/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
1/

3/

5/

7/

9/
9/

Date

➢ REASON:-The Graph shows a downward trend in the month of September. The


vital reason for this is the financial crisis and a sudden downturn in the banking
sector.
➢ There were rumours of Insider trading that some of the person’s in the top
management selling their shares.

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R.D. Engineering College
Share Price Share Price

10
11 /1
/3 /2

100
200
300
400
500
600

0
/2 10 0 0

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
11 0 08 /3 8
/2
/5 10 0 0
/2 /5 8
00 /2
11 8 10 0 0
/7 /7 8
/2 /2
0

of the organization.
11 0 10 0 0
/9 8 /9 8
/2 10 /20
11 0 0 /1 08
/1 8 1
1/ 10 /2 0
/1 08
11 2 00 3

R.D. Engineering College


/1 8 10 /2 0
/1 08
3/ 5
11 2 00 10 /2 0
/1 8 /1 08
5/ 7
20 10 /2 0
11 /1 08
08 9

Date
/1 10 /2 0
7/
2 0 /2 08
11 1

Da te
/1 08 10 /2 0
9/ /2 08
3
11 2 00 10 /2 0
/2 8 /2 08
1/ 5
11 2 00 10 /2 0
8 /2 08
/2 7
3/ 10 /2 0
ICICI Bank's Performance On Oct'08

20 /2 08
11 08 9
/2 10 /2 0
5/ /3 08
11 2 00 1/
8 20
/2 08

ICICI Bank's Performance On Nov'08


7/
20
08
Series1

Series1

90
Support Level: Rs. 310
REASON:-There was a downfall in the prices because of the announcement of new BOD

Resistance Level:Rs. 455


Support Level: Rs. 305
Resistance Level:Rs. 470
ICIC I B ank's Performance On Dec'08

500 Resistance Level: Rs 455


450
400 Support Level: Rs. 400
350
Share price

300
250 Series1
200
150
100
50
0
/3/ 8
/5/ 8
/7 8
/9/ 8
/1 08
/13 08
/15 08
/17 08
/19 08
/21 08
/2 08
/25 08
/27 08
/29 08
/31 08

8
12 20 0
12 20 0
12 20 0
12 20 0

00
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0

12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 20

12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0

12 /2 0
12 /2 0
/2
/
/1/

3
12

Date

➢ Reasons- There was uptrend in prices due to Repurchase & subsequent


Extinguished of Bonds and cuts in lending & deposit rates.

ICICI Bank's Performance On Jan'09

600
500 Resistance Level: Rs. 440
Share Price

400 Support level: Rs. 370


300 Series1
200
100
0
1/ 0 9

1/ 0 9

11 9

13 9

15 9

17 9

19 9

21 9

23 9

25 9

27 9

29 9

9
1/ 0 9

1/ 0 9

1/ 0 0

1/ 0 0

1/ 0 0

1/ 0 0

1/ 0 0

00
1/ 0 0

1/ 0 0

1/ 0 0

1/ 0 0
1/ 00
20

20

20

20

/2
/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2

/2
1/

3/

5/

7/

9/
1/

Date

➢ Reason- ICICI announced Quarter 3 Results and posted a net profit of Rs


15597.60 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 as compared to Rs
11198.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.

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IC IC I B a n k's P erfo rm a n c e O n F e b '09

500 Resistance Level: Rs445


450
400
350 Support Level: Rs342
Share Price

300
250 S eries 1
200
150
100
50
0
2/6 0 9

2/8 0 9
2/4 0 9

2/1 0 9

2/1 0 09

2/1 0 09

2/2 0 09

2/ 0 09

2/2 0 09

09
2/1 0 09

2/1 0 09

2/2 0 09
20
/2 0

0
/ 20

20
/2

/2
0/2

2
4/2

6/2

8/2

0/2

4/2
/

2/

6/
2/2

22

D a te

➢ Reasons: There was a decline in the share prices at the end of the month because
of the news that the bank tops the list of credit cards frauds & it amounts to losses
of around 11.47 cr.

IC IC I B a n k 's P erfo rm an c e o n M arch '09

450 Resistance Level: Rs.349


400
350
300 Support Level: Rs255
share Price

250
c los ing pric e
200
150
100
50
0
3/ 0 9
3/ 0 9

3/ 00 9
3/ 0 9

3/ 0 09

3/ 0 09

3/ 0 09

9
3/ 0 09

3/ 0 09

3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09

3/ 0 09
00
20
20
20
2

/2

/2
/2

/2

/2
/2

/2

/2

/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
3/

Da te

An upward movement of the stock prices has been seen in the month of March because in
a ceremony held in Hong Kong, ICICI Bank has been awarded the following titles under
The Asset Triple A country awards for 2009:-
• Best Transaction Bank in India
• Best Trade Finance Bank in India
• Best Cash Management Bank in India

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• Best Domestic Custodian in India

JANUARY EQUITY CHARTING


Weekly charts of Jan’09:

Weekly Chart

540
Share Price in (Rs.)

520

500
Resistance Level: Rs.525
480

460 Support Level: Rs.465


440

420
1/5/2009 1/6/2009 1/7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/2009
Date

➢ Reason: ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated
December 31, 2008, titled "ICICI Bank cuts lending and deposit rates".

Weekly Chart(12 Jan-16 Jan)

450
Share Price in (Rs.)

440
Resistance Level: Rs.442
430

420
Support Level: Rs408
410

400

390
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
Date

➢ Reason: ICICI
Bank Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank
will be held on January 24, 2009, inter alia, to consider the approval of audited
accounts for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 (Q3).

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Weekly Chart(19 Jan-23 Jan)

420
410
Share Price in (Rs.)

400
390 Resistance Level: Rs380
380
370
360 Support Level: Rs368
350
340
330
1/19/2009 1/20/2009 1/21/2009 1/22/2009 1/23/2009
Date

➢ Interest rates to come down which will benefit SME’s.


➢ The prices are more towards stability because of increase in Q3 profit by 3.4 %.

Weekly Chart (27Jan-30 Jan)


420

410
Share Price in (Rs.)

400

390

380

370

360
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 Date 1/29/2009 1/30/2009

➢ Reasons-Rise in share price of ICICI Bank due to announcement of Q3 Results


.ICICI posted a net profit of Rs 15597.60 million for the quarter ended December
31, 2008 as compared to Rs 11198.20 million for the quarter ended December 31,
2007.

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FEBRUARY EQUITY CHARTING
Weekly Chart For the month of Feb:

Performane Of ICICI Bank from 2nd Feb to 6th Feb

410
405
Resistance Level’s. 402
400
Share Price

395 Support Level: Rs. 390


390 Series1
385
380
375
370
2/2/2009 2/3/2009 2/4/2009 2/5/2009 2/6/2009
Date

➢ Reasons- Change in directorate with effect from 27 Jan, 2009.


ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated January 24, 2009
titled "Performance Review - Quarter ended December 31, 2008".

Performance of ICICI Bank from 9th feb to 13th feb'09

440

435 Resistance Level: Rs. 435.5


430
Share price

Support Level; Rs. 421.5


425 Series1

420

415

410
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009
Date

➢ Reasons- Volatility is higher due to Repurchase & subsequent Extinguishment of


Bonds.
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Performance of ICICI bank from 16th Feb to 20th Feb'09

450
400 Resistance Level: Rs. 408
350 Support Level: Rs. 300
300
Share Price

250
Series1
200
150
100
50
0
2/16/2009 2/17/2009 2/18/2009 2/19/2009 2/20/2009
Date

➢ Reason: ICICI Bank has decided to follow the slow-moving pace in disbursing
auto loans, unless there is clarity on the repossession norms for vehicles. The lack
of clarity is the direct result of a Supreme Court judgment, which requires lenders
to follow the due process of law for recovering vehicles from defaulters.

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Performance of ICICI Bank from 24th feb to 27th feb '09

345

340 Resistance Level; Rs. 340.5

335 Support Level: Rs. 325


Share Price

330 Series1

325

320

315
2/24/2009 2/25/2009 2/26/2009 2/27/2009
date

➢ Reason: There was an increase in prices after 25th Feb because the bank was
awarded Dun & Bradstreet Banking Award 2009.

MARCH EQUITY CHARTING

Weekly Performance of ICICI Bank in March’09

Performance from 2nd March to 6th March

310

300
Resistance Level: Rs. 300
290 Support Level: Rs. 270
Share price

280 Series1

270

260

250
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date

➢ Reason: The RBI has taken a positive step by announcing the cut of 50 basis
points in repo as well as reverse repo rate, said Ms Chanda Kochhar, CEO-

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designate, ICICI Bank, said. The RBI has sought to create conditions conducive
to the consumption and investment, taking into account the global developments
and their impact on India: slowdown in growth on one hand and decline in
inflation on the other.

Performance from 9th March to 13th March

320
310
Resistance Level: Rs. 310

300 Support Level: Rs 283


Share Price

290
280 Series1
270
260
250
240
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009
date

➢ Reason: ICICI BANK made a recovery in this week after falling of more than
12% in the previous week due to positive global news and the effect of stimulus
package announced by the Govt. of India.

Performance From 16th March to 20th March'09

340
Resistance Level: Rs. 338
335 Support Level: Rs. 324

330
Share Price

325 Series1

320

315

310
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Date

➢ Reason: ICICI Bank is planning to set up a new entity to house its automated
teller machines (ATMs) as well as the point-of-sale (PoS) terminals, which

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accept credit and debit card payments. This is the first time that an Indian bank is
planning to transfer its ATM as well as PoS assets to a separate company.

Performance from 23rd March to 27th March'09

390
380 Resistance Level: Rs. 382
370 Support level: 350
Share price

360
Series1
350
340
330
320
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
date

➢ Reason: "Banks should start considering 0.50 per cent cut in interest rate ...
Possibly in a week or few weeks," Kamath said. He also said "Clearly, inflation is
nearing zero, but we are not able to bring down lending rate to single digit. So
there is a need to look at more policy action,".

Financials
➢ Operating profit ex-treasury is down 10% YoY and 26% QoQ
NII grew 2% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to Rs19.9b. Loans declined 1% YoY and 4%
QoQ to Rs2.1t. Reported margins were stable at 2.4%. Fee income at Rs13.5b was down
25% YoY and 28% QoQ. Treasury income rose from Rs2.8b in 3QFY08 to Rs9.8b in
3QFY09 - driving PAT. Treasury Income during the quarter includes Rs2.5b on MTM
reversal. Opex declined 18% YoY and was stable QoQ. Operating profit ex-treasury is
down 10% YoY and 26% QoQ in 3QFY09. Total deposits declined by 9% YoY and 6%
QoQ to Rs2. This is partly due to strategic slowdown and mainly due to flight of retail
deposits.

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R.D. Engineering College
➢ Asset quality deterioration continues
Reported gross NPAs declined 6% QoQ to Rs96b as management wrote off Rs16b of
gross NPAs during the quarter and sold off Rs2b of NPAs. NPA generation during the
quarter was Rs12b (stable for last 4-5 quarter). Due to the write off decision; provision
coverage declined to 54% from 58% a quarter ago. Net NPAs increased 4% QoQ despite
Rs10b of fresh provision during the quarter. Net NPAs now stand at 9% of net
worth.Management expects gross NPA build up to continue driven by rising defaults in
unsecure portfolios and CVs (account for 16% of total loan book). While so far the
corporate book is not showing any signs of weakness, it could throw up NPAs in FY10.
We have modelled NPA cost rising to 1.7% in FY09 and 1.9% in FY10 (from 1.3% in
FY08) and then falling
to 1.5% in FY11.

➢ ICICI Prudential Life impacted severely


ICICI Pru Life’s retail WNRP and NBAP declined 33% QoQ in 3QFY09. ICICI Prudential
Life NBAP declined by 5% YoY in 9MFY09 to Rs7.12b. NBAP decline was 40% YoY
in 3QFY09. NBAP margin contracted to 18.9% in 9MFY09 from 19.3% in 9MFY08
–however was stable QoQ.

➢ Overseas subsidiaries a mixed bag


ICICI UK’s total assets declined QoQ from USD8.7b to USD7.6. Loan book however
improved marginally from USD2.5b in September 2008 to USD2.7b in December 2008.
ICICI UK earned profit of ~USD37m during 3QFY09. However due to large MTMs in
1HFY09, 9MFY09 PAT is merely USD 1.4m. MTM taken through reserves during
3QFY09 was a substantial USD71m v/s USD42m booked in 1HFY09.

ICICI Canada’s total assets increased QoQ from USD5.5b to USD6.5b. Loan book
grew sharply 40% QoQ to USD3.6b. Earnings were CAD11m in 3QFY09 and CAD33m
in 9MFY09.

➢ Reducing target price to Rs446 - upside of 23%


We expect ICICI Bank to report EPS of Rs34 in FY09 and Rs39 in FY10. BV
would be Rs439 in FY09 and Rs463 in FY10. ABV (adjusted for 50% investment in
subs and 65% net NPAs) would be Rs364 in FY09 and Rs384 in FY10. We reduce
our target price from Rs497 to Rs446 mainly due to a) applying 0.8x multiple to BV
10
R.D. Engineering College 0
adjusted for 50% investments in subsidiaries and 65% net NPAs (earlier not adjusted
for NPAs) and b) reducing the value of ICICI Pru Life from Rs116/share to
Rs82/share.

Quarterly Results in brief:

Particulars Dec’08 Sept’08 Absolute %


(Rs crore) (Rs crore) Change chang
e
Sales 7,836.08 7,834.98 1.1 0.014
Operating profit 5,094.27 5,171.41 -77.14 -1.4
Interest 5,845.67 5,687.36 157.91 2.77
Gross profit 2,770.84 2,284.91 485.93 21.26
EPS(Rs) 11.43 9.11 2.32 25.46

Analysis:
• The sales have increased by 0.014% in Q3.
• Operating profit has decreased on the assumption that either operating
expenses have increased or there is an increase in NPA’s.
• As there is an increase in gross profit & EPS, it shows that the demand of the
share will increase in the future.

RATIO ANALYSIS:-
Y/E MARCH 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Spreads
Analysis(%)
Avg. Yield-Earning 7.9 8.9 8.7 8.3 8.3
Assets
Avg.Cost- 6.4 7.4 7.2 6.4 6.2
Int.Bear,Liab.
Interest Spread 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.9 2
Net Interest Margin 2 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8
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R.D. Engineering College 1
Pofitability
Ratios(%)
ROE 13.4 11.7 7.9 8.6 10.6
Adjusted ROE 13.4 12.9 8.8 9.7 12.1
Int. 74.4 76.3 73.6 67.9 66.1
Expended/int.Earne
d
Other Inc./Net 55.1 54.7 48.1 45.6 44.9
Income

Efficiency
Ratios(%)
Op. Exps./Net 57.9 53.3 45.6 44.1 43.6
Income
Empl. Cost/Op. 24.2 25.5 28.7 27.9 28.4
Exps.
Busi. Per Empl.(Rs 110.7 110.7 112.8 99.9 104.4
m)
NP per Empl.(Rs. 9.3 10.3 9.4 9.5 11.9
lac)

Asset-Liability
Profile(%)
Adv./Deposit Ratio 85 92.3 100.9 101 100.3
CASA Ratio % 21.8 26.1 28 31.5 33.5
Invest/Deposit 39.6 45.6 49.7 50.7 49.3
Ratio
G-Sec/Invest Ratio 73.8 67.6 62.3 59.2 60.8
Gross NPAs to Adv. 2.1 3.3 4.3 4.6 4.1
Net NPAs to Adv. 1 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3
CAR 11.7 14 14.9 14 12.9
Tier 1 7.4 11.8 11.5 10.7 9.7

Valuation
Book Value(Rs.) 270 418 439 463 500
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R.D. Engineering College 2
Price-BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
ABV(for Subs 256 397 415 440 480
Invst. And NPAs)
EPS(Rs.) 34.6 37.4 33.8 38.6 51.2
EPS Growth(%) 21.2 8 -9.7 14.3 32.6
Price-Earning (x) 10.5 9.7 10.8 9.4 7.1
Adj.Price- 6.9 6.4 7.1 5.9 4.4
Earnings(x)

COMPARATIVE VALUATIONS:-

ICICI BANK HDFC BANK AXIS BANK


P/E(x) FY09E 7.4 18.5 17.8
FY010 6.4 14.8 13.4
E
P/BV( FY09E 0.7 2.8 2.6
x)
FY010 0.6 2.1 2.2
E
ROE( FY09E 8.5 15.6 15.4
%)
FY10E 9 16.6 17.9
ROA( FY09E 0.9 1.3 1.1
%)
FY010 1 1.4 1.1
E

RESULT ANALYSIS:-

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R.D. Engineering College 3
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3QFY0 3QFY0 YOY 2QFY0 QOQ FY08 FY09E FY10E
9 8 GR. 9 GR.
% %
Interest 78,361 79,118 78,350 0 3,07,88 3,13,14 3,01,68
Income 3 2 5
Interest 58,457 59,521 56,874 3 2,34,84 2,30,62 2,04,79
Expense 2 1 0
Net Interest 19,904 19,597 2 21,476 73,041 82,521 96,895
Income(NII)
Other 25,150 24,266 4 18,773 34 88,108 76,615 81,244
Income
- Fees 13,470 17,850 18,760 -28 66,270 66,270 69,584
- Treasury 9,760 2,820 246 -1,530 -738 8,150 4,000 5,000
Income(Incl
uding MTM)
- Others 1,920 3,596 1,543 24 13,688 6,345 6,660
Net Income 45,054 43,863 3 40,250 12 1,61,1 1,59,1 1,78,1
49 35 39
Total 17,341 21,276 -18 17,400 0 81,542 70,704 76,359
Operating
Costs
- Staff 5,030 5,705 -12 4,881 3 20,789 20,276 21,290
Costs
- Other 12,311 15,571 -21 12,520 -2 60,753 50,428 55,069
Opex
Operating 27,713 22,587 23 22,849 21 79,607 88,431 1,01,7
Profit 80
Provisions 10,080 7,600 33 9,235 9 29,046 37,684 42,990
PBT 17,633 14,987 18 13,614 30 50,561 50,747 58,790
Tax 4,910 2,681 83 3,472 41 8,984 13,194 15,873
Tax Payout 28 18 3 26 18 26 27
%
PAT 12,723 12,306 3 10,142 25 41,577 37,553 42,916
EPS 7 9 -24 10 -37 37 34 39
Deposits 20,90, 22,97, -9 22,34, -6 24,44, 21,50, 23,23,
650 790 020 311 993 073
Advances 21,25, 21,55, -1 22,19, -4 22,56, 21,69, 23,46,
210 170 850 161 423 198
- Retail 11,45,0 13,23,1 -13 12,25,0 -7 13,16,6 11,45,4 969
Advances 00 10 00 30 68
- 5,52,55 4,52,58 22 5,77,16 -4 4,77,46 5,68,17 992
Internationa 5 6 1 0 7
l Advances
Net NPA% 2 2 2 2 2 2
Yields On 10.4 10.9 10.2 10.7 10.3 9.8
Advances %
Cost of 7.5 7.8 7.0 7.4 7.2 6.4
Funds %
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R.D. Engineering College 5
INCOME
STATEMENT
Y/E MARCH 2,007 2,008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Interest Income 2,19,95 3,07,88 3,13,14 3,01,68 3,33,116
6 3 2 5
Interest 1,63,58 2,34,84 2,30,62 2,04,7 2,20,213
Expended 5 2 1 90
Net Interest 56,371 73,041 82,521 96,895 1,12,904
Income
Change (%) 44.3 29.4 13.0 17.4 16.5
Other Income 66,279 88,108 76,615 81,244 92,098
Net Income 1,25,65 1,61,14 1,59,13 1,78,1 2,05,002
0 9 5 39
Change (%) 41.3 28.3 -1.2 11.9 15.1
Operating Exp. 66,906 81,542 70,704 76,359 87,910
Operating 58,744 79,607 88,431 1,01,7 1,17,092
Income 80
Change (%) 51.1 35.5 11.1 15.1 15.0
Provisions & 22,294 29,046 37,684 42,990 39,114
Cont.
PBT 36,450 50,561 50,747 58,790 77,978
Tax 5,348 8,984 13,194 15,873 21,054
Tax Rate (%) 14.7 17.8 26.0 27.0 27.0
PAT 31,102 41,577 37,553 42,916 56,924
Change (%) 22.4 33.7 -9.7 14.3 32.6
Proposed 8,993 12,239 12,239 13,352 13,352
Dividend

BALANCE
SHEET
Y/E MARCH 2,007 2,008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Capital 8,993 11,127 11,127 11,127 11,127
Preference 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
Capital
Reserve & 2,34,13 4,53,57 4,76,808 5,04,103 5,45,404
Surplus 9 5
Net worth 2,46,6 4,68,20 4,91,43 5,18,730 5,60,03
33 2 5 1
Deposits 23,05, 24,44,3 21,50,9 23,23,07 26,71,5
100 11 93 3 34
Change (%) 39.6 6.0 -12.0 8.0 15.0
Borrowings 7,06,61 8,63,98 9,11,719 9,87,038 10,73,48
3 6 5

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R.D. Engineering College 6
Other 1,88,23 2,21,45 2,81,244 3,57,180 4,53,619
Liabilities & 5 2
Prov.
Total Liabilities 34,46, 39,97,9 38,35,3 41,86,02 47,58,6
581 51 91 0 68
Current Assets 3,71,21 3,80,41 3,04,722 3,19,200 3,54,349
3 1
Investments 9,12,5 11,14,5 10,69,9 11,76,95 13,18,1
78 43 62 8 93
Change (%) 27.5 22.1 -4.0 10.0 12.0
Loans 19,58, 22,56,1 21,69,4 23,46,19 26,80,7
656 61 23 8 08
Change (%) 34.0 15.2 -3.8 8.1 14.3
Net Fixed 39,234 41,089 44,389 47,389 49,889
Assets
Other Assets 1,64,89 2,05,74 2,46,896 2,96,275 3,55,530
9 6
Total Assets 34,46, 39,97,9 38,35,3 41,86,02 47,58,6
581 51 91 0 68

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE MONTH

Market is at the resistant level (SENSEX 14,500 points as on 20th Mayl, 2009)
and ICICI BANK share price is highly correlated with market so for next 10 days
ICICI BANK share price is expected to achieve a new support level of 650 points.

News from India

Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo Rate, CRR,


and SBI already had followed the move by cutting the lending rate
and home loan rate to all segments and it is expected that all
others banks can also follow the same ,which can impact the
profitability of the banking sector.

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R.D. Engineering College 7
“Looking at the above given information we can project the
new Support Level at 650* points and Resistance Level at
750* points for the Second and third week of June”.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR THE COMING MONTHS


Beginning of June the news could be favorable but will the same Support and
Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our team have done research on it
and made the conclusion that it will not be maintaining the same levels.

REASONS:
• Market fall is expected because it cannot sustain at this level for longer time
(Market as on 2nd April, 2009).
• 4th Quarter Result would the deciding point for the share price of ICICI
BANK.
• General Election is not far away and market will take some rest during this
time frame.
• Loss from the overseas market by having exposure to foreign exchange may
be crucial point for the ICICI BANK share price.

“Looking at the above given information I projected that the


new Support Level for the Month of June will be 670* points
and Resistance level will be 810* points”.

Key investment arguments :-


• Modest loan growth with improving margin would result
in significant net interest income growth; fee income is
expected to remain buoyant
• Subsidiaries hold significant values

Valuation and view:-


10
R.D. Engineering College 8
• Improvement in CASA and margins, and reduction in
net NPAs will be the key triggers to watch out for.
• Adjusted for subs value at Rs139/share (reduced from
Rs169); stock trades at 0.6x FY10E ABV (adjusted
for 50% investment in subs and 65% net NPAs).
• We value ICICIBC at Rs446/share (0.8x FY10E ABV
+ Rs139/share for subs value).

Sector view:-
• YTD loan growth of 24% and deposit growth of 21%.  Concerns on
slowing economic growth.
• Selective buying favoring banks with higher earnings
visibility and reasonable valuations.

Key investment risks:-


• NPAs have been increasing over the last few quarters and have reached
2% (net) as on December 2008 .
• NIM and CASA ratio continue to be one of the lowest in the industry.

SWOT ANALYSIS

➢ STRENGHTS:

1) Online Services: ICICI Bank provides online services of all it’s banking facilities.
It also provides D-Mart account facilities on-line, so a person can access his account
from anywhere he is.
[D-Mart is a dematerialized account opened by a salaried person for purchase & sale
of shares of different companies.]

10
R.D. Engineering College 9
2) Advanced Infrastructure: Branches of ICICI Bank are well equipped with
advanced technology to provide the customers with taster banking services. All the
computerized machines are located in suitable manner & are very useful to the
customers & staff of the bank.

3) Friendly Staff: The staff of ICICI Bank in all branches is very friendly & help the
customers in all cases. They provide faster services along with bonding & personal
relationship with the customers.

4) 12 hrs. Banking services: Compared to other bank ICICI bank provides long hrs. of
services i.e. 8-8 services to the customers. This service is one of it’s kind & is very
helpful for the customers who are in urgent need of money.

5) Other Facilities to the Customers & Employees: ICICI Bank also provides other
facilities like drinking water facilities, proper sitting arrangements to the customers.
And there are also proper Ventilation & sanitary facilities for the employees of the
bank.

6) Late night ATM services: ICICI bank provides late night ATM services to the
customers. The ATM centers of ICICI bank works even after 11:00pm. at night in
certain branches.

➢ Weakness:

1) High Bank Service Charges: ICICI bank charges highly to customers for the
services provided by them when compared to other bank & that is why it is only in
the reach of higher class of society.

2) Less Credit Period: ICICI bank provides credit facilities but only upto limited
period. Even when the credit period is not over it sends reminder letters to the
customers which may annoy them.

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➢ OPPORTUNITIES:

1) Bank –Insurance services: The bank should also provide insurance services. That
means the bank can have a tie-up with a insurance company. The bank will advertise
& promote the different policies introduced by the insurance company & convince
their customers to buy insurance policies.

2) Increase in percentage of Returns on increase: The bank should provide higher


returns on deposits in comparison of the present situation. This will also upto large
extent help the bank earn profits & popularity.

3) Recruit professionally guided students: Bank & Insurance is a special non-aid


course where the students specialize in the functioning & services of the bank & also
are knowledge about various tax policies. The bank can recruit these students through
tie-ups with colleges. Such students will surely prove as an asset to the bank.

4) Associate with social cause: The bank can also associate itself with social causes
like providing relief aid patients, funding towards natural calamities. But this falls in
the 4th quadrant so the bank should neglect it.

➢ THREATS
1) Competition: ICICI Bank is facing tight competition locally as well as
internationally. Bank like CITI Bank, HSBC, ABM, Standered Chartered, HDFC also
provide equivalent facilities like ICICI do and also ICICI do not have consistency in
its international operation.

2) Net Services: ICICI Bank provides all kind of services on-line. There can be easy
access to the e-mail ids of the customers through wrong people. The confidential
information of the customers can be leaked easily through the e-mail ids.

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R.D. Engineering College 1
3) Decentralized Management: Each branch manager is given the authority of taking
decisions in their respective branches. The decisions made by different managers are
diverse and any one wrong decision can laid to heavy losses to the bank.

4) No Proper Facilities To Uneducated customers: ICICI Bank provides all services


through electronic computerized machines. This creates problems to the less educated
people. But this threat falls in the 4th quadrant so its negligible. The company can
avoid this threat.

Indian Realty Sector


Till a few months back, the real estate industry in India was witnessing a boom, it is
only sometime back the industry is facing a downturn. But one cannot deny that the
real estate market of India is still unorganized, fairly fragmented, mostly
characterized by small players with a local presence. Earlier, real estate developers
were viewed with an element of doubt. Realty players and developers were quite
often identified as people dealing with large amounts of unaccounted money and
lacking transparency. One felt that they would use unscrupulous means to acquire a
variety of regulatory approvals. The tremendous growth of the real estate sector and
the change of belief of people can be attributed to various fundamental factors such as
growing economy, growing business needs, etc. However, this boom in the Indian
real estate sector is restricted to areas such as commercial office space, retail and
housing sectors.

Currently, the sector is facing a major resource crunch. There is an obvious lack of
qualified skilled people/workers in construction firms, PMC firms, etc. Along with
11
R.D. Engineering College 2
this, the manpower shortage is the shortage of availability of relevant statistics which
has raised an ambiguity in the minds of people as to how much construction activity
is actually taking place and one can not actually gauge the demand and supply trends
accurately. As a majority of developers are concerned about developing up-market
and high-class apartments/villas and penthouses, the opportunities and issues of
affordable, low cost housing in India have been ignored so far, as a result there is a
dearth of low cost affordable units. Also, one of the negative versions of Indian real
estate industry is that there is not much respect for sustainability so the concept of
green buildings, proper waste disposal methods and the longevity of the product are
often ignored.

UNITECH
COMPANY PROFILE:-
Unitech Ltd. Established in 1971 by a group of technocrats led by Mr. Ramesh
Chandra, Unitech has over the last three decades emerged as one of the leading
business houses in India. Apart from the fl agship business of real estate development,
the group has interests in varied businesses such as Fund management, Infrastructure
development and Transmission tower manufacturing. The Group has recently
ventured into mobile telecom business.
The Group’s fl agship company Unitech Limited is a leading real estate
developer in India with a market capitalization of around USD 6 billion. Unitech has
been at the forefront of the rapid transformation of Indian real estate sector in the
recent years.

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R.D. Engineering College 3
The Company was incorporated on 9th February1971 as United Technical
Consultants Pvt. Ltd., and was converted into a public Limited Company on 3rd
October1985. The company carries on construction of industrial projects on a
turnkey basis and execution of Housing Projects and export orders.

The Company was promoted by a group of technocrats, proficient in the field of soil
and foundation engineering and managed By Professionals. The Company
undertakes projects both in India and Abroad.

Unitech has the most diversified product mix comprising residential,


commercial/Information Technology (IT) parks, Retail, Amusement parks, Hotels
and Special Economic Zones. It is known for the quality of its product and is the first
real estate developer to have been certified ISO 9001:2000 certificate in North India.

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN DEC 31, 2008


Category of Number of Total number of
shareholder shareholders shares % of shares
Shareholding of Promoter and Promoter Group
A) Indian 38 1091232375 67.22
B) Foreign 1 3822000 0.24
Public shareholding
A) Institutions 193 127446588 7.86
B) Non-institutions 499315 400874037 24.69
Total 499547 1623375000 100.01

Unitech Share Price from 01-Jan-08 to 31-Mar-09

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UnitechSharePrice from01-Jan-08 to31-Mar-09
Resistanc
600 e level
500 400
Price

400
300
200
Support
100
Level 36

11/1/2008
10/1/2008

12/1/2008
1/1/2008

2/1/2008

3/1/2008

4/1/2008

6/1/2008

7/1/2008

8/1/2008

9/1/2008

1/1/2009

2/1/2009

3/1/2009
5/1/2008
0

Date

SHARE PERFORMANCE CHART ON BSE


400
350
300
250
200
150
High Price
100
Low Price
50
10/1/2008

11/1/2008

12/1/2008

0
4/1/2008

5/1/2008

6/1/2008

7/1/2008

8/1/2008

9/1/2008

1/1/2009

2/1/2009

3/1/2009

• 52 Week High 338.00 05-May-2008


• 52 Week Low 21.80 28-Nov-2008
• All Time High
• All Time Low 21.80 28-Nov-2008

OCTOBER 2008
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U n it e c h S h a r e P r ic e o f O c t - 0 8
150

100 Resistance
level 101.0
Price

50

0
10/1/08
10/3/08

10/7/08
10/9/08
10/5/08

10/11/08

10/17/08
10/19/08
10/21/08

10/25/08
10/27/08
10/29/08
10/13/08
10/15/08

10/23/08

10/31/08
Da te Support
level 30.00

• HIGH 115.40 01-OCT-2008


• LOW 31.00 24-OCT-2008
• Fall of rs.84.40 within a month
• Sale is decrease by 75%.
• Rate was down because Net Profit Decrease by 62%. & Expenditure increased by
62% .

NOVEMBER 2008
U ni t e c h S ha r e P r i c e o f N o v - 0 8 Resistance
60 level 56.00
40
Price

20
0
11/7/08
11/3/08
11/5/08

11/9/08
11/11/08
11/13/08
11/15/08
11/17/08
11/19/08
11/21/08
11/23/08
11/25/08
11/27/08

Support
level 23.00
Da t e

• HIGH 56.55 10-NOV-2008


• LOW 23.15 28-NOV-2008
• Fall of rs.33.40 within a month
• Sale is decrease by 75%.
• Rate was down because Net Profit Decrease by 62%. & Expenditure increased by
62%

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R.D. Engineering College 6
DECEMBER 2008
U ni t ec h S ha r e P r i c e o f D ec - 0 8 Resistance
50 level 45.00
40
30
Price

20
10
0
08

08

08

08

08
Support
20

20

/20

/20

/20
/1/

/8/

/15

/22

/29
Da t e level 32.00
12

12

12

12

12

• HIGH 45.75 22-DEC-2008


• LOW 24.00 01-DEC-2008
• Fall of rs.21.75 within a month
• Sale is decrease by 75%.
• Rate was down because Net Profit Decrease by 62%. & Expenditure increased by
62%
• Inflation is decrease by 2 % from last month.

JANUARY 2009
Unite ch Share Price of Jan-09
50 Resistance
40 level 47.00
30
Price

20
10
0
09

09

9
00

00

00
20

Support
20

/2

/2
/2
1/

8/

15

22

29
1/

1/

Date
1/

1/

1/

level 26.50

• HIGH 47.60 05-JAN-2009


• LOW 26.95 23-JAN-2009
• Fall of rs. 20.75 within a month.
• Inflation is decrease by 1 % from last month.

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R.D. Engineering College 7
FEBRUARY 2009
Unite ch Share Price of Fe b-09 Resistance
33
32
31
level 32.10
30
Price

29
28
27
26
25
2/6/2009
2/2/2009
2/4/2009

2/8/2009
2/10/2009

2/14/2009
2/16/2009
2/18/2009
2/20/2009
2/22/2009
2/24/2009
2/26/2009
2/12/2009

Support
Date level 27.65

• HIGH 32.15 11-FEB-2009


• LOW 27.75 05-FEB-2009
• Fall of rs. 04.40 within a month
• Inflation is decrease by 2.10 % from last month.

MARCH 2009
Unite ch Share Price of M ar-09
40 Resistance
30 level 36.40
Price

20
10
0
9

09

09
9
00

00

00

20

20
2

/2
2/

9/

/
16

23

30
3/

3/

Support
3/

3/
3/

Date
level 24.70

• HIGH 36.50 26-MAR-2009


• LOW 24.80 09-MAR-2009
• Fall of rs. 11.70 within a month

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R.D. Engineering College 8
• Inflation is decrease by .2.80 % from last month.

JANUARY EQUITY CHARTING


Fir s t We e k of Jan'09 Resistance
50
level 47.50
40

30

20

10

0
1/5/2009 1/6/2009 1/ 7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/ 2009
D ate

Support
level 26.50

• HIGH 47.60 05-JAN-2009


• LOW 36.00 09-JAN-2009
• Fall of rs. 11.60 within a week

Se cond We e k of Jan'09
Resistance
36 level 34.80
34

32
Price

30

28 Support
26
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
level 29.40
Date

• HIGH 34.95 14-JAN-2009


• LOW 29.45 16-JAN-2009

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R.D. Engineering College 9
• Fall of rs. 05.50 within a week

Resistance
level 31.90
T h ir d W e e k Of Ja n '09
34
32
30
Price

28
26
24
1 /1 9/20 09 1 /20/20 09 1/21/20 0 9 1/22 /20 09 1/23/20 09
Support
DA t e
level 26.80

• HIGH 31.95 19-JAN-2009


• LOW 26.95 23-JAN-2009
• Fall of rs. 05.00 within a week

Forth We e k of Jan'09
Resistance
33 level 32.50
32
31
30
29
Price

28
27
26
25 Support
24
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 1/29/2009 1/30/2009 level 27.15
Date

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• HIGH 32.50 30-JAN-2009
• LOW 27.15 27-JAN-2009
• Fall of rs. 05.35 within a week

FEBRUARY EQUITY CHARTING


Fir s t We e k o f Fe b'09
Resistance
level 29.30
29.5
29
28.5
Price

28
27.5
27
26.5 Support
2/2/2009 2/3/2009 2/4/2009 2/5/2009 2/6/2009
level 27.75
Date

• HIGH 29.30 02-FEB-2009


• LOW 27.75 05-FEB-2009
• Fall of rs. 01.55 within a week

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Se cond We e k of Fe b'09

33
32 Resistance
31 level 32.10
Price

30
29
28
27
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009 Support
Date level 31.10

• HIGH 32.15 11-FEB-2009


• LOW 29.05 09-FEB-2009
• Fall of rs. 03.10 within a week

Third Week of Feb'09

30.5
30
29.5 Resistance
29
level 29.25
Price

28.5
28
27.5
27
26.5
2/16/2009 2/17/2009 2/18/2009 2/19/2009 2/20/2009
Date
Support
level 28.30

• HIGH 30.20 16-FEB-2009


• LOW 28.05 20-FEB-2009
• Fall of rs. 02.15 within a week

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Fo u r th W e e k o f Fe b '09
Resistance
29 level 28.90
28.8
28.6
28.4
Price

28.2
28
27.8
27.6
2/24/200 9 2/2 5/2 009 2 /2 6 /2 0 09 2/2 7/2 009
Support
Da te
level 28.10

• HIGH 28.90 26-FEB-2009


• LOW 28.10 25-FEB-2009
• Fall of rs. 00.80 within a week

MARCH EQUITY CHARTING


First Week of Mar'09

27.5
Resistance
27
level 26.60
26.5
Price

26

25.5

25

24.5
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date
Support
level 25.60

• HIGH 26.95 02-MAR-2009


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R.D. Engineering College 3
• LOW 25.55 05-MAR-2009
• Fall of rs. 01.40 within a week

Second Week of Mar'09

Resistance
27
26.5
level 26.50
26
25.5
Price

25
24.5
24
23.5
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009 Support
Date level 25.00

• HIGH 26.50 13-MAR-2009


• LOW 25.05 12-MAR-2009
• Fall of rs. 01.45 within a week

T hir d w e e k o f M ar '09
Resistance
27.5
level 27.10
27
26.5
Price

26
25.5
25
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Support
Date
level 25.95

• HIGH 27.15 19-MAR-2009


• LOW 25.95 17-MAR-2009
• Fall of rs. 01.20 within a week
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R.D. Engineering College 4
Fo u r t h W e e k o f M ar '09
Resistance
40 level 36.00
30
Price

20

10

0
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
Date
Support
level 29.00

• HIGH 36.50 26-MAR-2009


• LOW 28.00 23-MAR-2009
• Fall of rs. 08.50 within a week

YEARLY MARGIN FOR UNITCH LTD.


YEAR Avg. Margin Avg. Margin (%)
2008 15.931 8.935%
TILL MAR-09 2.747 8.666%

MONTHLY MARGIN FOR UNITECH LTD.


Month Monthly Avg. Margin Monthly Avg. Margin (%)
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R.D. Engineering College 5
Jan-08 39.441 9.033%
Feb-08 28.867 7.764%
Mar-08 24.897 8.828%
Apr-08 13.305 4.748%
May-08 13.955 5.015%
Jun-08 14.098 7.320%
Jul-08 12.974 8.084%
Aug-08 8.935 5.249%
Sep-08 10.467 7.850%
Oct-08 11.745 19.132%
Nov-08 5.578 13.489%
Dec-08 4.007 11.342%
Jan-09 4.41 12.739%
Feb-09 1.953 6.629%
Mar-09 1.537 5.816%

Margin:-The Average Margin for UNITECH LTD. In the last one year and 3 months
is 8.75% and Monthly Margin Range from 4-19%. The Margin at 0% Risk comes out
1.5% or Paisa 41 relating to current market price, considering 15% as the Risk free
margin for UNITECH LTD.

Financials:

• Strong asset base offsets short-term liquidity concerns:Unitech reported a


moderate financial performance in Q2’09 due to the
liquidity crisis and a slowdown in the real estate sector. The EBIDTA
margin improved considerably because of a drop in the construction cost.We
upgrade our rating from Hold to Buy due to the following reasons:

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R.D. Engineering College 6
• Huge land bank spread across the country: Unitech has 13,923 acres
of land spread across all major cities of the country. Nearly 70% of the
land has been purchased from the government with clear titles.
Approximately 70 % of the land bank spreads across the four cities of
Kolkata (35%), NCR (14%), Chennai (12%), and Vizag (9%).
• Operating margins likely to fall but remain at higher levels: The
operating margin is likely to decline from the current 59.9% due to the
expected fall in property prices and a shift in focus towards low-margined
middle income housing. However, lower steel and cement prices are
expected to partially offset the decline in the margins.
• Short-term liquidity likely to improve: Unitech is struggling with short-
term liquidity concerns due to its high leverage and debt obligation of
Rs. 27 bn due by the end of FY09. We believe that it can tide over thecurrent
situation through the sale and monetization of its assets.
• Attractive valuation : Unitech’s stock currently trades at a
43.4%discount to our fair value estimate of Rs. 46, which incorporates the

substantial decline in real estate prices across all segments. We believe


that the stock has a long-term upside potential as the Company has ahuge
land bank at diversified locations, a strong asset base, and the expertise and
execution skills.

Quarterly Data Q2'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 YOY% QOQ%


(Rs. mn,except per share data)
Net Sales 10135 10317 9831 -3.00% -4.70%
EBITDA 5071 6084 6092 20.20% 0.10%
Net Profit 4101 4233 3589 -12.50% 15.20%

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Margins(%)
EBITDA 50.00% 59.00 62.00%
%
NPM 40.50% 41.00 36.50%
%

Per Share Data


(Rs.)
EPS 2.5 2.6 2.2 -12.60% -15.20%

Result Highlights

Unitech’s consolidated revenue declined 3% yoy, from Rs. 10.1 bn in


Q2’08 to Rs. 9.8 bn in Q2’09, due to the slowdown in the construction and
real estate sales. Construction revenue declined 64% yoy, from Rs. 517.9
mn in Q2’08 to Rs. 186.7 mn in Q2’09. However, revenue increased 6.9%
yoy in H1’09. We expect revenue to fall at a CAGR of 15.4 % between
2008 and 2010, due to the liquidity crisis and the slowdown in demand.

In spite of the decline in revenue, the EBIDTA margin increased


considerably to 62% in Q2’09, from 50% in Q2’08, due to a drop in cement
and steel prices, resulting in a significant 28.3% drop in the real estate
construction cost. The margin for H1’09 increased 6.5 pts on a yoy basis,
from 53.4% in H1’08 to 59.9% in H1’09. We believe that the margin will
come under pressure due to the expected fall in property prices.

Unitech’s second quarter net profit declined 12.5% yoy to Rs. 3.6 bn
(Rs. 2.2 per share) in Q2’09, from Rs. 4.1 bn (Rs. 2.5 per share) in Q2’08. Net
profit margin declined by 396 bps from 40.5% in Q2’08 to 36.5% in Q2’09.
This was mainly driven by a 69.8% yoy rise in interest expenses, from
Rs.0.79 bn in Q2’08 to Rs.1.3 bn in Q2’09. We believe that the net profit
margin will drop further because of the high interest cost and the shift towards
low-margined middle income housing.

Quarterly Q2'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 YOY% QOQ TTM TTM YOY%


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R.D. Engineering College 8
Data % ENDED ENDEDQ
Q2'08 2'09
( Rs. mn,except per
share data
Revenue
Real 8303 9140 8077 - - 39242 37331 -
Estate 2.70% 11.60 4.90%
%
Construc 518 316 187 -64% - 2338 1739 -
tion 40.90 25.60
% %
Consultin 772 251 990 28.30 294.30 1131 1883 66.50
g % % %
Hospitali 26 31 32 26.70 4.90% 103 132 28.30
ty % %
Electrical 140 206 208 49.10 1.30% 720 790 9.70%
%
Others 377 373 336 - - 792 1294 63.30
10.90 9.90% %
%
Total 10135 10317 9831 44326
EBIT
Real 6049 6049 5257 - - 27249 24769 -
Estate 13.10 13.10 9.10%
% %
Construc 42 42 37 - - 116 156 34.90
tion 10.60 10.60 %
% %
Consultin 251 251 984 292.10 292.10 733 1789 144.10
g % % %
Hospitali 2 2 0 89.50 89.50 10 -4 -
ty % % 135.00
%
Electrical 8 8 -22 NM NM 45 30 -
33.90
%
Others 24 24 7 - - 96 139 44.40
72.40 72.40 %
% %
Total 6376 6376 6264 28250 26880
EBIT
Margins
Real 72.90 66.20 65.10 69.40% 66.30%
Estate % % %
Construc 8.00% 13.10 19.90 5.00% 9.00%
tion % %
Consultin 32.50 99.90 99.40 64.80% 95.00%
g % % %
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R.D. Engineering College 9
Hospitali 7.50% 6.20% 0.60% 10.00% -2.70%
ty
Electrical 5.60% 3.80% - 6.20% 3.70%
10.40
%
Others 6.40% 6.50% 2.00% 12.20% 10.80%

Outlook
The real estate market is facing a deep-rooted slowdown due to the
combination of the liquidity crisis and the high interest rates. Residential prices have
declined up to 25% from their peaks in the last few months, while commercial and
retail rentals have declined nearly 20 % in some major metropolitan areas.
Besides, banks have tightened the credit and reduced the loan-to-value amount for
home loans. Therefore, we expect the real estate market to respond with reduced
demand and a significant price downswing over the next 12-24 months.

Unitech’s second quarter financial performance was adversely affected


due to the liquidty crisis and the slump in real estate demand. The
Company is highly leveraged with a debt-equity ratio of 2.4x and a trailing
6-month interest coverage ratio of 5.0. Its debt stood at Rs. 85.5 bn as of March 31,
2008. The Company has a debt obligation of Rs. 27 bn, due by March 2009. The
recent deal with Telenor, a Norwegian-based telecom company, to divest a 60%
stake in its telecom venture for Rs 61 bn will act as a small breather, allowing the
Company to partially reduce its debt burden on its balace sheet.

We believe that in the prevailing low liquidity environment, the Company may
not be able to mobilise funds from commercial banks as the latter have stopped
lending to realty firms due to the high-risk weightage of the sector.

Therefore, the Company is actively looking to raise debt through private equity in
the current financial year to fund the ongoing development projects. Further, it is
also planning to reduce its debt burden through the the sale of office space, land,
and a hotel in the next 3-4 months. We expect that the aggressive
capitalstructure may force it to monetize some of its projects before they become

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R.D. Engineering College 0
economically optimal, thereby sacrificing some returns.

We believe that the Company’s operating margin will fall from the present 59.9%
due to its strategic shift of focus towards the low-margined middle income housing
(affordable homes) and the expected fall in property prices. In addition, housing
projects in locations such as Vizag will further pressurise the margin.
However, construction costs are falling due to the decline in cement and steel prices.
We expect these costs to come down further as commodity prices are decreasing
because of the expected global recession. Hence, the fall in property prices is
likely to offset the gains expected from the lower raw material costs. As a result,
the operating margin is expected to fall from the current levels.

We have arrived at the NAV per share of Rs. 96, which incorporates the
substantial decline in real estate prices and a 15% dilution of Unitech’s
stake at the project level. We have used a 17.2% cost of equity to value the
Company and have arrived at a WACC of 15.4%.

Unitech is one the large listed companies that does not disclose its
quarterly balance sheet and cash flow statement to the investors. As a
result, I have limited visibility of the Company’s earnings growth and
current liquidity situation. Considering the weak demand scenario and the limited
financial information available, I believe the stock will trade at a discount to its
NAV, which we have assumed at 25%.

My fair value estimate for the Company is therefore Rs. 46 per share, which
represents a 76.6% upside to the current share price. Hence, I upgrade our rating on
the stock from Hold to Buy.
Year To FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E CAGR(
March E %)
Rs.mn,except per
share data
Net Sales 6452 9266 32883 41404 15.40%
EBITDA 779 1806 20109 23687 23.70%
Net Profit 335 925 12667 16619 30.20%
Margins(%)
EBITDA 12.10 19.50 61.20 57.20 54.00 46.50%
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% % % % %
NPM 5.20% 10.00 38.50 40.10 30.70 27.30%
% % % %
Per Share Data (Rs.)
EPS 0.2 0.6 7.8 10.2 5.8 5 30.20%
PER(x) 14.2x 40.7x 62.6x 2.6x 4.5x 5.3x

RATIO ANALYSIS:-

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE MONTH


Market is showing uptrend in the last two weeks and SENSEX is now at 14500.
Unitech share price is also showing uptrend due to highly correlation with market so
for next 1 month Unitech share price is expected to achieve a new support level of
Rs.77 points but looking at the international market we can say that international
investors are bit optimistic so market can sustain at this high for some more time.

Domestic News

Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo rate and CRR,
which can keep market interest for some more time. Inflation is also
under control and it is now at all time Low (As on 15th May 2009) etc.

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“Looking at the above given information we can project the new Support Level
at 77* points and Resistance Level at 107* points for the Second week of June”.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR THE COMING MONTHS OF


2009

Beginning of June the news could be favorable but will the same Support
and Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our team have
done research on it and made the conclusion that it will not be
maintaining the same levels.
REASONS:
• Market fall is expected because it can’t sustain at this level for longer time
(Market as on 2nd April, 2009).
• As it can be noticed from the 3rd quarter result of 2008 that the net profit is
just 13% of the total sales. So its effect will definitely be seen in the share
price of the company. The share price of the company can reduce in the
coming weeks due to this negative news.
• This is also one of our prediction for the coming weeks that the support level
of the share price will be at Rs77 and the resistance level of the share will be
at Rs107 due to the reason that the support and resistance level of the shares
in the past 15 weeks remain at a level below Rs77 and Rs 107.
• 4th Quarter Results are expected in the month of April and it is expected that
the result will be better in comparison to the last quarter. Price of the share
can move a little bit upward but it will remain in the support and resistance
level given above.
• Inflation data is going negative for the market, so it can affect the share price
of the company.

“Looking at the above given information our Team has projected new
Support Level for the week of 3rd and 4th will be Rs.75 and Resistance level
will be Rs.110 points”.
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Key Risks :-

• Failure to secure private equity deals in projects may result in a lack of


funding and could lead to delays in execution. This may also exert
pressure on funding costs, thereby negatively affecting the net margins.
• Delays in project completion and a slowdown in residential demand
due to high interest rates would hurt the Company’s growth prospects.

SWOT Analysis of Unitech

Strengths
1. Unitech is the second largest engineering and construction companies in India
with a strong international presence in regions of South Asia, the Asia Pacific,
the Middle East, the Caspian, Africa and the United Kingdom. It has over 40
subsidiaries spread across the globe who have engaged with over 200 clients
implementing over 250 projects in over 40 countries.

2. Unitech has significant experience and very strong track record. Some of its
achievement are as follows
• It has constructed more than 8000 kilometers of pipelines
• It has constructed six million cubic meters of storage tanks and terminal
capacity
• It has executed 12 refinery modernization projects.
• It has executed onshore and offshore pipelines under extreme climatic
condition and difficult terrain including swampy and marshy terrain.

1. Unitech is one of the few companies to have a in-house comprehensive


mechanical, civil and insulation work capability for cryogenic LPG and LNG
tanks and terminals.

2. It provides engineering and construction services in diverse industries as


follows

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R.D. Engineering College 4
Oil and gas projects including pipelines, storage tanks and terminals and
process facilities
• Infrastructure projects
• Power plants projects
• Civil construction projects including highways, flyovers, bridges,
elevated railroads, ports, MRTs and LRTs
• Specialty sectors like health care and industrial civil infrastructure
• Plant and facility management projects

1. Its core capabilities lie in process and plant engineering, heavy civil
engineering and building.

2. Its diverse nature of businesses allows avoiding dependency on any one


industry or nature of projects. Also its operation is spread across several
geographic which enable it to decrease dependence on any one economy or
project activity.

3. Unitech enjoys long term relationship with its reputed clients which reward it
with repeat orders from several of its domestic and international clients
despite increasing competitions. With this is in good position to capitalize on
ever increasing global demand for energy, infrastructure development and
building projects. Its acquisition of Sembawang and Simon carves which
increases its geographic reach of operations and providing a wider range of
services.

4. Unitech has a highly qualified and motivated employee base with a strong
proven management team. As on 31 March 2007, It employs directly or
indirectly over 3600 full time employees and 6,200 strong temporary contract
labor for their projects. There promoters has more than 25 years of experience
in the construction industry.

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R.D. Engineering College 5
5. Unitech has over 9000 pieces of construction and engineering equipment
which includes pipe laying equipment, recently added horizontal directional
drilling rigs, swamp excavators, pilling rigs. It also includes 15 spreads of
pipeline equipment capable of laying pipelines up to 56 inches in diameter. It
has potential to simultaneously execute several projects. It also has two
workshops and yards to maximize peak performance functioning, one in
Banmore which is in Madhya Pradesh and other which serves as base camp
and yard in Sungaipuran, Indonesia. Another advantage it sees owning and
managing a large fleet of sophisticated engineering equipment is that it helps
in maintain higher EBITDA margins.

Weakness

1. Unitech is exposed to uncertain political and economic environments,


government instability and legal systems, law and regulations of 18 different
countries it operates around the world which may be very different from what
is prevailing in India.

2. The company has grown by leaps and bounds in last few years which may
create obstacles to manage growth and reduce profitability and operations.

3. Major projects are subject to pre-qualified based on several criteria like


experience, technology capacity and performance, safe record, financial
strength and size of previous projects. Recently in the energy and petroleum
sector major emphasis on increasing developing larger, more technically
complex projects and awarding to a fully integrated project contractor.
Though contracts are obtained through competitive bidding process but pre-
qualification plays a key role.

4. Unitech ability to qualify only to a certain value and high concentration on


projects with potential high margins may hinder from taking up such large
complex projects.

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R.D. Engineering College 6
5. Unitech is entering into a number of new businesses which require significant
expense and financial and operational resources. Its entry into real estate
development in India and providing onshore integrated drilling services in the
oil and gas sector may not prove unprofitable because of limited experience.
Unitech Investment in Pipavav Shipyard is exposed to execution risk since it
is yet to commence commercial operations.

6. Due to its presence in pipelines it has helped it to record highest operating


margins in the industry buts increasing level of exposure to road projects has
led to declining margins.

7. Moreover, the company is into capital-intensive segments and the higher


depreciation costs and interest’s costs keep its net margins at the same level
other prominent competitors.

Opportunities

1. High level of investments expected in the existing areas of specialization

2. Has vast international presence in pipeline projects related to oil and gas
sector

3. Increase in the level of road investments and BOT road projects will help in
booking more infrastructure orders.

4. Around the world like United States and whole of Europe has opted for 10%
blending of bio-ethanol take place in diesel and petrol within a period of 4 to
5 years. Brazil,
5. Unitech can take up to 100 meter water depth in offshore pipeline. There is a
large opportunity on account of the replacement of the old lines in Bombay
high and south basin sea
6. As oil has crossed $100 mark there will be large quantum of money coming
into oil producing nations mainly Middle East countries which will translate
into multiple increases in its own capex in Oil and Gas sector.

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R.D. Engineering College 7
7. There are huge opportunities in power with a ambitious target growth of 12%
in the eleventh plan. Also with Indo-US nuclear deal in the pipeline. Unitech
is in a good position to capitalize in this especially in hydel and nuclear which
are constructive intense projects.

Threats

1. International contracts are usually fixed price contract .Therefore business is


exposed to commodity price volatility as a sharp increase in raw material
prices may impact margins

2. Corporate capital expenditure and infrastructure investments are interest rate


sensitive. Therefore significant increase in interest rate may reduce the
investments

3. Global and domestic hydrocarbon capital expenditure are prone to oil prices.
Any reduction in oil prices may reduce investment in hydrocarbon industry

4. As a major portion of revenue of the company is from outside India. Sharp


fluctuation in currency may impact profitability.

5. The business activities of the company are sensitive to weather conditions


especially its operation in the Caspian region and the Middle East. During
extreme high temperature or difficult working condition may hamper
construction activities and lead to inadequate use of resources.

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R.D. Engineering College 8
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSION

CONCLUSION
The growing influence of global developments on the Indian economy was manifest
in the surge in capital inflows in 2007-08, a phenomenon observed earlier in other
emerging market economies. This is a natural concomitant of the robust
macroeconomic fundamentals like high growth, relative stability in prices, healthy
financial sector and high returns on investment. Sometimes, it also reflects the
rigidities in the economy, particularly the interest differentials.

13
R.D. Engineering College 9
The strength, resilience and stability of the country’s external sector are reflected by
various indicators. These include a steady accretion to reserves, moderate levels of
current account deficit, changing composition of capital inflows, flexibility in
exchange rates, sustainable external debt levels with elongated maturity profile and
an increase in capital inflows.

The current account has followed an inverted “U” shaped pattern during the period
from 2001-02 to 2006-07, rising to a surplus of over 2 per cent of GDP in 2003-04.
Thereafter it has returned close to its post-1990s reform average, with a current
account deficit of 1.2 per cent in 2005-06 and 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2006-07.

For the Educomp solutions Company is likely to post very high growth rate for a long
time. Revenue figures are expected to show a CAGR of 70% for the period 2009-2011,
35% for the period 2011-2014 and 20% for the period 2014-2016.

We forecast strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see limited risks
to estimates given.EBITDA margins are likely to improve as revenue share of high
margin retail and online business is likely to improve considerably. We expect ROE
to double and settle in the range between 30-35%.

For the Icici Bank NII grew 2% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to Rs19.9b. Loans declined
1% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs2.1t. The sales have increased by 0.014% in Q3.Operating
profit has decreased on the assumption that either operating expenses have increased
or there is an increase in NPA’s.As there is an increase in gross profit & EPS, it
shows that the demand of the share will increase in the future.

And for the Unitech Unitech’s consolidated revenue declined 3% yoy, from Rs.
10.1 bn in Q2’08 to Rs. 9.8 bn in Q2’09, due to the slowdown in the construction
and
real estate sales. Short-term liquidity likely to improve. Operating margins likely to
fall but remain at higher levels. Huge land bank spread across the country. Strong
asset base offsets short-term liquidity concerns.

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R.D. Engineering College 0
Total Income has increased from Rs 14562.20 million for the quarter ended
December 31, 2007 to Rs 18228.70 million for the quarter ended December 31,
2008.Tata Power will hold 74% equity and IOCL will hold 26% equity in the
proposed Joint Venture Company.

So with this we find that market sentiments and the announcements effects the share
prices of the companies. and equity research helps to find out the support and
resistence level of the share prices and help us to predict the future prices of the
stocks.

ANNEXURE
14
R.D. Engineering College 1
ANNEXURE
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
BALANCE SHEET
Educomp In Rs.
Solutions Cr.
Balance Sheet
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08

Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital 4.47 4.47 15.96 15.99 17.25
Equity Share Capital 4.47 4.47 15.96 15.99 17.25
Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Reserves 12.59 18.92 74.35 98.71 269.57
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0

Networth 17.06 23.39 90.31 114.7 286.82


Secured Loans 2.93 4.37 9.92 17.55 52.3
Unsecured Loans 0 0 0 107.14 314.94
Total Debt 2.93 4.37 9.92 124.69 367.24
19.99 27.76 100.23 239.39 654.06

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R.D. Engineering College 2
Total Liabilities

Application Of Funds
Gross Block 18.7 24.62 35.08 93.62 264.53
Less: Accum. 8.86 13.04 18.34 21.82 53.18
Depreciation
Net Block 9.84 11.58 16.74 71.8 211.35
Capital Work in 0.28 2 6.65 7.59 20.08
Progress
Investments 1.1 1.74 1.55 28.11 70.98
Inventories 0.85 1.01 1.74 3.25 1.41
Sundry Debtors 13.15 19.13 25.16 49.35 114.46
Cash and Bank 1.3 3.06 28.6 30.77 54.34
Balance
Total Current Assets 15.3 23.2 55.5 83.37 170.21
Loans and Advances 1.69 1.99 6.03 21.93 36.44
Fixed Deposits 0 0 31.06 64.19 224.69
Total CA, Loans & 16.99 25.19 92.59 169.49 431.34
Advances
Deffered Credit 0 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities 8.22 12.74 6.63 23.73 70.11
Provisions 0 0 10.75 13.94 9.6
Total CL & Provisions 8.22 12.74 17.38 37.67 79.71
Net Current Assets 8.77 12.45 75.21 131.82 351.63
Miscellaneous 0 0 0.08 0.06 0.04
Expenses
19.99 27.77 100.23 239.38 654.08

Total Assets
Contingent Liabilities 0 0 17.44 17.95 29.24
Book Value (Rs) 38.15 52.3 56.59 71.75 166.31

PROFIT AND LOSS


Educomp In Rs.
Solutions Cr.
Profit & Loss account
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08

Income
Sales Turnover 24.75 29.82 52.3 106.57 262.1
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Net Sales 24.75 29.82 52.3 106.57 262.1
Other Income 1.26 2.29 1.07 5.07 14.8
Stock Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0
Total Income 26.01 32.11 53.37 111.64 276.9
Expenditure

14
R.D. Engineering College 3
Raw Materials 6.86 3.37 0 0 0
Power & Fuel Cost 0 0 0 0 0
Employee Cost 5.49 6.35 7.5 10.51 25.58
Other Manufacturing 0 0 9.54 30.42 79.73
Expenses
Selling and Admin 0 0 7.63 12.15 18.83
Expenses
Miscellaneous 6.06 6.74 1.17 2.2 11.62
Expenses
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Total Expenses 18.41 16.46 25.84 55.28 135.76
Operating Profit 6.34 13.36 26.46 51.29 126.34
PBDIT 7.6 15.65 27.53 56.36 141.14
Interest 0.38 0.55 0.71 1.99 5.82
PBDT 7.22 15.1 26.82 54.37 135.32
Depreciation 3.73 4.89 5.31 9.39 32.3
Other Written Off 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02
Profit Before Tax 3.49 10.21 21.49 44.96 103
Extra-ordinary items -0.42 -0.06 -0.02 -0.74 0
PBT (Post Extra-ord 3.07 10.15 21.47 44.22 103
Items)
Tax 1.61 3.83 7.57 15.64 32.94
Reported Net Profit 1.89 6.33 13.92 28.65 70.06
Total Value Addition 11.55 13.09 25.85 55.28 135.76
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Dividend 0 0 2.39 3.31 4.32
Corporate Dividend 0 0 0.34 0.56 0.73
Tax
Per share data (annualised)
Shares in issue (lakhs) 44.73 44.73 159.6 159.85 172.47
Earning Per Share 4.22 14.15 8.72 17.92 40.62
(Rs)
Equity Dividend (%) 0 0 15 20 25
Book Value (Rs) 38.15 52.3 56.59 71.75 166.31

CASH FLOW STATEMENT


Educomp Solutions In Rs.
Cr.
Cash Flow
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08

10.16 21.47 44.9 103

Net Profit Before Tax


Net Cash From Operating 8.46 11.24 18.04 68.1
Activities

14
R.D. Engineering College 4
Net Cash (used in)/from -8.27 -14.61 -88.46 -215.72
Investing Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from 1.09 60.8 109.07 330.66
Financing Activities
Net (decrease)/increase In 1.27 57.43 35.3 183.04
Cash and Cash Equivalents

Opening Cash & Cash 1.05 2.23 59.66 94.96


Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash 2.32 59.66 94.96 279.03
Equivalents

ICICI BANK
BALANCE SHEET
ICICI Bank In Rs.
Cr.
Balance Sheet
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09

Capital and Liabilities:


Total Share Capital 1,086.75 1,239.83 1,249.34 1,462.68 1,463.29
Equity Share Capital 736.75 889.83 899.34 1,112.68 1,113.29
Share Application Money 0.02 0 0 0 0
Preference Share Capital 350 350 350 350 350
Reserves 11,813.20 21,316.16 23,413.92 45,357.53 48,419.73
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
Net Worth 12,899.97 22,555.99 24,663.26 46,820.21 49,883.02
Deposits 99,818.78 1,65,083.1 2,30,510.1 2,44,431.0 2,18,347.8
7 9 5 2
Borrowings 33,544.50 38,521.91 51,256.03 65,648.43 67,323.69
Total Debt 1,33,363.2 2,03,605.0 2,81,766.2 3,10,079.4 2,85,671.5
8 8 2 8 1

14
R.D. Engineering College 5
Other Liabilities & 21,396.17 25,227.88 38,228.64 42,895.39 43,746.43
Provisions
Total Liabilities 1,67,659.4 2,51,388.9 3,44,658.1 3,99,795.0 3,79,300.9
2 5 2 8 6
Assets
Cash & Balances with RBI 6,344.90 8,934.37 18,706.88 29,377.53 17,536.33
Balance with Banks, 6,585.07 8,105.85 18,414.45 8,663.60 12,430.23
Money at Call
Advances 91,405.15 1,46,163.1 1,95,865.6 2,25,616.0 2,18,310.8
1 0 8 5
Investments 50,487.35 71,547.39 91,257.84 1,11,454.3 1,03,058.3
4 1
Gross Block 5,525.65 5,968.57 6,298.56 7,036.00 7,443.71
Accumulated Depreciation 1,487.61 1,987.85 2,375.14 2,927.11 3,642.09
Net Block 4,038.04 3,980.72 3,923.42 4,108.89 3,801.62
Capital Work In Progress 96.3 147.94 189.66 0 0
Other Assets 8,702.59 12,509.57 16,300.26 20,574.63 24,163.62
1,67,659.4 2,51,388.9 3,44,658.1 3,99,795.0 3,79,300.9
0 5 1 7 6
Total Assets
Contingent Liabilities 97,507.79 1,19,895.7 1,77,054.1 3,71,737.3 8,03,991.9
8 8 6 2
Bills for collection 9,803.67 15,025.21 22,717.23 29,377.55 36,678.71
Book Value (Rs) 170.35 249.55 270.37 417.64 445.17

PROFIT AND LOSS


ICICI Bank In Rs. Cr.
Profit & Loss account
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09
Income
Interest Earned 9,409.89 13,784.50 22,994.29 30,788.34 31,092.55
Other Income 3,416.23 5,036.62 6,962.95 8,878.85 8,117.76
Total Income 12,826.12 18,821.12 29,957.24 39,667.19 39,210.31
Expenditure
Interest expended 6,570.89 9,597.45 16,358.50 23,484.24 22,725.93
Employee Cost 737.41 1,082.29 1,616.75 2,078.90 1,971.70
Selling and Admin 1,040.49 2,360.72 4,900.67 5,834.95 5,977.72
Expenses
Depreciation 590.36 623.79 544.78 578.35 678.6

14
R.D. Engineering College 6
Miscellaneous Expenses 1,881.77 2,616.78 3,426.32 3,533.03 4,098.22
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Operating Expenses 3,177.78 5,274.23 8,849.86 10,855.18 10,795.14
Provisions & 1,072.25 1,409.35 1,638.66 1,170.05 1,931.10
Contingencies
10,820.92 16,281.03 26,847.02 35,509.47 35,452.17

Total Expenses
2,005.20 2,540.07 3,110.22 4,157.73 3,758.13

Net Profit for the Year


Extraordionary Items 0 0 0 0 -0.58
Profit brought forward 53.09 188.22 293.44 998.27 2,436.32
Total 2,058.29 2,728.29 3,403.66 5,156.00 6,193.87
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Dividend 632.96 759.33 901.17 1,227.70 1,224.58
Corporate Dividend Tax 90.1 106.5 153.1 149.67 151.21
Per share data (annualised)
Earning Per Share (Rs) 27.22 28.55 34.59 37.37 33.78
Equity Dividend (%) 85 85 100 110 110
Book Value (Rs) 170.35 249.55 270.37 417.64 445.17
Appropriations
Transfer to Statutory 547 248.69 1,351.12 1,342.31 2,008.42
Reserves
Transfer to Other 600.01 1,320.34 0 0.01 0.01
Reserves
Proposed 723.06 865.83 1,054.27 1,377.37 1,375.79
Dividend/Transfer to Govt
Balance c/f to Balance 188.22 293.44 998.27 2,436.32 2,809.65
Sheet
Total 2,058.29 2,728.30 3,403.66 5,156.01 6,193.87

CASH FLOW STATEMENT


ICICI Bank In Rs. Cr.
Cash Flow
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09

2527.2 3096.61 3648.04 5056.1 5116.97

Net Profit Before Tax


Net Cash From Operating 9131.72 4652.93 23061.95 -11631.15 -14188.49
Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from -3445.24 -7893.98 -18362.67 -17561.11 3857.88
Investing Activities

14
R.D. Engineering College 7
Net Cash (used in)/from -1227.13 7350.9 15414.58 29964.82 1625.36
Financing Activities
Net (decrease)/increase 4459.34 4110.25 20081.1 683.55 -8074.57
In Cash and Cash
Equivalents
Opening Cash & Cash 8470.63 12929.97 17040.22 37357.58 38041.13
Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash 12929.97 17040.22 37121.32 38041.13 29966.56
Equivalents

UNITECH
BALANCE SHEET
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
Unitech
Balance Sheet In Rs. Cr.
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Sources Of Funds
14
R.D. Engineering College 8
Total Share Capital 12.49 12.49 12.49 162.34 324.68

Equity Share Capital 12.49 12.49 12.49 162.34 324.68

Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Reserves 138.2 161.42 212.05 998.66 1,819.14
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0

Networth 150.69 173.91 224.54 1,161.00 2,143.82


Secured Loans 60.32 280.19 632.57 2,839.67 5,506.45

Unsecured Loans 71.33 43.63 54.2 765.39 2,611.08

Total Debt 131.65 323.82 686.77 3,605.06 8,117.53


Total Liabilities 282.34 497.73 911.31 4,766.06 10,261.35
Application Of Funds
Gross Block 41.34 50.86 83.17 99.87 132.05
Less: Accum. 23.55 25.51 28.44 30.24 35.96
Depreciation
Net Block 17.79 25.35 54.73 69.63 96.09
Capital Work in 622.09 1,106.14 1,824.66 4,408.59 7,083.41
Progress
Investments 83.39 166.57 282.39 518.93 1,397.99
Inventories 26.66 29.3 32.26 32.77 13.66

Sundry Debtors 61.92 57.14 76.54 97.55 739.74

Cash and Bank 26.65 56.56 74.73 128.62 236.01


Balance
Total Current Assets 115.23 143 183.53 258.94 989.41

Loans and Advances 168.5 310.77 866.97 3,090.88 7,624.58

Fixed Deposits 57.31 138.32 85.9 667.19 135.17

Total CA, Loans & 341.04 592.09 1,136.40 4,017.01 8,749.16


Advances
Deffered Credit 0 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities 770.19 1,364.74 2,314.33 3,798.30 6,316.27

Provisions 11.79 27.68 72.55 449.8 749.03

Total CL & Provisions 781.98 1,392.42 2,386.88 4,248.10 7,065.30

Net Current Assets -440.94 -800.33 -1,250.48 -231.09 1,683.86

Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0
Expenses
Total Assets 282.33 497.73 911.3 4,766.06 10,261.35
59.87 376.88 434.87 1,640.51 2,325.69

Contingent Liabilities
Book Value (Rs) 120.67 139.27 179.81 14.3 13.21

14
R.D. Engineering College 9
PROFIT AND LOSS
Unitech In Rs.
Cr.
Profit & Loss
account
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08

Income
Sales Turnover 373.95 509.33 653.13 2,441.74 2,486.79

Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0

Net Sales 373.95 509.33 653.13 2,441.74 2,486.79


Other Income 6.19 17.86 21.52 155.38 482.36

Stock Adjustments 7.27 2.65 4.38 1.57 -19.11

Total Income 387.41 529.84 679.03 2,598.69 2,950.04

Expenditure
Raw Materials 27.41 58.33 65.45 80.53 26.46

Power & Fuel Cost 0 0 0 0 0

Employee Cost 10.38 15.95 31.11 65.62 98.43

Other Manufacturing 298.87 359.62 396.1 853.98 981.25


Expenses

Selling and Admin 14.81 22.6 30.84 38.06 52.7


Expenses

Miscellaneous 4.21 5.9 7.17 15.55 23.7


Expenses

Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised

355.68 462.4 530.67 1,053.74 1,182.54

Total Expenses
Operating Profit 25.54 49.58 126.84 1,389.57 1,285.14

PBDIT 31.73 67.44 148.36 1,544.95 1,767.50


Interest 9.54 21.92 37.14 193.71 393.38

15
R.D. Engineering College 0
PBDT 22.19 45.52 111.22 1,351.24 1,374.12
Depreciation 1.69 2.14 3.1 4.54 8.58

Other Written Off 0 0 0 0 0

Profit Before Tax 20.5 43.38 108.12 1,346.70 1,365.54

Extra-ordinary items 2.5 -1.05 -0.51 0.44 -0.38

PBT (Post Extra-ord 23 42.33 107.61 1,347.14 1,365.16


Items)

Tax 6.46 13.46 38.48 361.27 334.83


Reported Net Profit 14.07 29.92 69.64 983.56 1,030.68

Total Value Addition 328.26 404.07 465.22 973.2 1,156.09

Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0

Equity Dividend 3.75 5 16.23 40.58 40.58

Corporate Dividend 0.48 0.65 2.28 6.9 6.9


Tax

Per share data (annualised)

Shares in issue 124.88 124.88 124.88 8,116.88 16,233.75


(lakhs)

Earning Per Share 11.27 23.96 55.77 12.12 6.35


(Rs)

Equity Dividend (%) 30 40 10 25 12.5

Book Value (Rs) 120.67 139.27 179.81 14.3 13.21

15
R.D. Engineering College 1
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Unitech In Rs
Cr.
Cash Flow
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08

Net Profit Before Tax 20.84 43.37 108.13 1344.83 1365.51

Net Cash From 60.35 87.66 -260.46 -1755.68 -3686.44


Operating Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from -26.08 -93.24 -121.05 -117.32 -771.21

Investing Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from -0.04 116.5 347.25 2508.19 4033.01
Financing Activities

Net 34.23 110.92 -34.26 635.19 -424.64


(decrease)/increase In
Cash and Cash
Equivalents
Opening Cash & Cash 49.73 83.96 194.89 160.63 795.82
Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash 83.96 194.89 160.63 795.82 371.18
Equivalents

15
R.D. Engineering College 2
BIBLIOGRAPHY

The books referred for the project work are:


Books
• Agarwal J.D., “Securities Analysis & Portfolio Management”
• Agarwal J.D., “Advance Financials Risk Analysis”
• Agarwal, J.D., “Readings for Financial Management”; IIF Publication.
• Brigham & Erhardt’s “Corporate Finance”, Thomson Publishers

Websites

• www.economictimes.com
• www.fmc.gov.in
• www.rbi.gov.in
• www.sebi.gov.in
• www.moneycontrol.com
• www.nseindia.com
• www.bseindia.com
• www.yahoofinance.com

15
R.D. Engineering College 3