CISAC

center for international security and cooperation stanford university center overview 2006 –2007

Insight&Impact

Knowledge to Build a Safer World

CISAC
CISAC’s Mission

To produce policy-relevant research on international security problems. To influence policymaking in international security. To train the next generation of security specialists.

Knowledge to Build a Safer World The Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) is a multidisciplinary research center within the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. As an integral part of one of the world’s leading universities, CISAC is committed to producing knowledge to build a safer world.
CISAC’s research provides insight on current and emerging global threats, from different academic fields as well as from diverse practical and political perspectives. CISAC uses this rich insight to make an impact, helping to build a safer world by actively engaging with policymakers worldwide. CISAC extends its insight & impact by training the next generation of security specialists who will carry forward this important work.

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(cover) CISAC co-director Siegfried Hecker visited with students in an English class at Middle School 1 in Pyongyang, during his fall 2006 visit to North Korea with John Lewis, CISAC’s founding co-director. (photo by John Lewis)

Contents 3 4 Letter from the Co-Directors Policy-Relevant Research

10 Influencing Policy 16 Training the Next Generation 22 Honors Graduates 24 Selected Publications and Presentations 28 CISAC People 30 Donors 31 Financial Highlights

CISAC

Programs

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CISAC honors student Sherri Hansen interviewed former combatants in Sierra Leone to find out why some rebel groups use child soldiers and others do not.

Studying in Basra, Iraq, CISAC fellow David Patel found Shia clerics inspired new civic participation among their followers after Saddam Hussein’s defeat.

Siegfried Hecker, CISAC’s new co-director, trains a new generation of international security experts at Stanford, while working with scientists around the world to secure nuclear weapons materials.

CISAC’s Interschool Honors Program in International Security Studies is building a cadre of professionals who will help lead and influence policymaking for years to come.

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CISAC

CISAC’s directing staff: Siegfried Hecker, co-director; Elizabeth Gardner, associate director for administration and external affairs; Lynn Eden, associate director for research; and Scott Sagan, co-director.

“There can be no lasting security without cooperation — the last ‘C’ in CISAC.”
Siegfried Hecker and Scott Sagan, CISAC co-directors

Center for International Security and Cooperation
Letter from the Co-Directors As the Iraqi situation continues to decline, Afghanistan slips backward, Russia is irritated by recent U.S. security moves in Eastern Europe, and Iran pushes ahead with its nuclear program, the United States is learning that there can be no lasting security without cooperation — the last “C” in CISAC. The Iraq Study Group, which had CISAC’s Bill Perry as a member, called for cooperation with Iran and Syria to reduce the risks of further escalation in the civil war in Iraq. In his Foreign Affairs article, Scott Sagan pointed to the need for the United States to cooperate with Russia, China, and the European powers to reduce Tehran’s security fears, as a necessary step to diminish Iran’s incentives to acquire nuclear weapons. John Lewis and Sig Hecker returned from their latest trip to North Korea to help develop the cooperation for peace building and denuclearization. Steve Stedman, Jim Fearon, Jeremy Weinstein, and many of their students examined the kinds of multilateral cooperation that will be needed to address the interrelated problems of civil war, food scarcity, environmental degradation, and poverty in Africa today. In addition to the center’s research on such key problems, we take great pride in watching the next generation of specialists grow. Predoctoral fellows complete their dissertations; postdoctoral fellows publish articles and books and move into influential jobs; and Stanford undergraduate honors students get turned on by international security challenges and decide to dig deeper in their future studies. This Center Overview shares just some of the highlights of the past year’s work by our faculty, fellows, and students — the insights they offer on security problems around the globe and the impact they have had on international policies. You’ll also meet a few Friends of CISAC as well as some researchers in residence at the center in 2007–2008 who will continue to make CISAC a vibrant success. We hope this review heightens your interest in CISAC. We invite you to visit the center, participate in our seminars and workshops, and contribute to our efforts to solve international security problems. Come watch our next generation of specialists grow. We know you will be impressed by their enthusiasm and dedication. We thank the foundations, national laboratories, companies, and many private individuals whose generosity helps make this work possible. And we very much welcome newcomers to the center.

Siegfried S. Hecker

Scott D. Sagan

letter from the co-directors

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Sherri Hansen, 2007 CISAC honors graduate, with children of research colleagues in Sierra Leone, where she did field research in summer 2006. Her thesis won the William J. Perry Award.

Insight
CISAC’s policy-relevant research provides insight on current and emerging

global threats, from different academic fields as well as from diverse practical and political perspectives.

Policy-Relevant Research

Sherri Hansen Explaining the Use of Child Soldiers Why do some rebel groups use child soldiers, while others do not? In research for her CISAC undergraduate honors thesis, Sherri Hansen found a lot of reasons advanced — poverty, low education levels, high rates of orphanhood among the child recruits, or perhaps an abundance of small arms that children could easily handle. But these reasons did not explain why two otherwise similar armed groups would make very different choices about employing children — as was the case with the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) and Civil Defense Forces (CDF) in Sierra Leone. To understand each group’s reasoning about the use of children in war, Hansen traveled in summer 2006 to Sierra Leone, where she interviewed 60 former combatants, including former child soldiers and mid-level commanders. Hansen got in touch with her interviewees through PRIDE, a non-governmental organization that does advocacy for ex-combatants. The organization had previously served as a local survey partner for Hansen’s thesis advisor, Jeremy Weinstein, a political science professor affiliated with CISAC, when he interviewed ex-combatants in Sierra Leone. “The RUF and CDF emerged in similar conditions,” Hansen said, “but they had different uses of child soldiers.” The RUF forcibly recruited children and employed them in combat. The CDF used a small number of children and in less dangerous support roles. She found a cost-benefit analysis underlying the groups’ decisions. “Although the forcible recruitment of children is often explained in terms of its military utility, it also carries a high social cost,” she said. Using children, especially in combat, would cost a group social support from its community, which would have to be weighed against benefits such as a monetarily cheap, malleable labor force. For the RUF, an “opportunistic rebellion that grew out of a student revolution,” forcing children into combat “was a rational strategy, because [the RUF] didn’t have to marshal civilian support and didn’t necessarily want it,” Hansen explained. The RUF could afford the high social cost of using child conscripts, because it looted local resources, including diamonds, to support itself. The CDF, on the other hand, “collaborated with civilians” and relied heavily on community support. The group did not risk losing that support by committing children to combat. Current international prohibitions against using child soldiers have little effect on groups that are not bound by social support or norms, Hansen pointed out. She recommended “treating the use of child soldiers as a war crime, in and of itself,” to help enforce the prohibitions. “The extensive presence of children in an armed force is easier to prove than [showing] commanders had knowledge of atrocities individual soldiers were committing.” She added that criminalizing the practice in this way would also pressure national governments to refrain from supporting militias that use child soldiers.

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photo: CISAC faculty member Jeremy Weinstein explored connections between AIDS and sub-par governance in Uganda.

Deadly Connections Understanding Links Among Diverse Threats Why do civil wars occur in the poorest states? How could global climate change worsen the spread of malaria and dengue fever in some regions? Does hunger breed armed conflict? CISAC and FSI senior fellow Stephen Stedman found claims linking threats such as civil war and poverty but little systematic study of these connections, as he directed research for the United Nations High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change in 2003–2004. Rosamond Naylor, also an FSI senior fellow, was thinking along similar lines as she started the Program on Food Security and the Environment (FSE), a joint program between FSI and the Woods Institute for the Environment. She designed FSE to bring together experts in climate science, medicine, economics, and other fields to seek innovative solutions to global hunger. Naylor and Stedman collaborated to start Deadly Connections, a research project directed by Naylor under the FSE program, to investigate links among a range of security threats. In 2006–2007, its first year, the project convened political scientists, economists, medical doctors, agriculturists, and climate scientists to explore policy issues for potential collaborative study. In a series of six meetings, they examined connections between war and disease, water quality and disease, scarcity and civil strife, poverty and civil war recruitment. Jeremy Weinstein, an assistant professor of political science affiliated with CISAC and Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), presented evidence of an often-claimed connection between AIDS and social instability or sub-par governance, from his study of Uganda. Like other presenters, he noted the need for further research in Uganda and elsewhere, to clarify points he had not resolved. “Knowing how and why HIV/AIDS undermines stability is essential for thinking about policy responses,” Weinstein said. In the year’s final session, David Battisti, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington, spoke on climate change in conflict-prone countries in Africa’s Sahel, a wide band between the Sahara and more tropical regions to the south. He noted that climate change models predict the Sahel will warm to levels far beyond those experienced before, likely posing a severe threat to the region’s mainly agricultural societies. “I had not seen global climate change as something that might bear directly on politics in countries I study in Africa,” said James Fearon, a political science professor affiliated with CISAC and CDDRL. “But due to David Battisti’s presentation I’m now thinking otherwise.”
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photo: Former CISAC co-director William Perry advised Sheena Chestnut on her influential 2005 CISAC honors thesis, “The ‘Sopranos State’? North Korean Involvement in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security.”

Sheena Chestnut Preventing North Korea’s Smuggling Networks from Expanding to Nuclear Trade In her 2005 CISAC honors thesis, Sheena Chestnut suggested that North Korean counterfeiting and trafficking operations pose a serious international security concern, as they could be expanded without detection for use in smuggling nuclear-weapons-related materials or technology to other nations or terrorists. While Chestnut pursued a master’s degree in international relations at Oxford University on a Marshall Scholarship, her thesis, “The ‘Sopranos State’? North Korean Involvement in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security,” which the Nautilus Institute published online in 2005, was being quoted in policy circles. It was cited in an April 2006 U.S. Senate subcommittee hearing on illicit activity funding the North Korean regime and, in Seoul, the South Korean government drew from Chestnut’s thesis in a presentation before the national assembly in early 2006. In July 2006 a New York Times magazine article referred to the thesis, as did a Time article in July 2007. The influence of Chestnut’s research can only be expected to increase now that it appears, revised and updated, in the summer 2007 International Security, a leading scholarly journal that is highly influential in policy debate. In the article, Chestnut, now a doctoral student in government at Harvard University, outlines conditions that might lead the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to engage in illicit nuclear trade — a possibility that CISAC co-director Siegfried Hecker and former co-director William Perry, among others, have indicated as the greatest security threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The DPRK is “more likely to sell nuclear material or technology to prevent its situation from deteriorating untenably, rather than simply to make a profit,” Chestnut said. “Paradoxically, “measures intended to constrict DPRK smuggling capabilities, by cutting off the leadership’s illicit flow of hard currency, may actually increase its motivation to conduct a sale.” Chestnut posits that deterring North Korean transfer of nuclear materials is within policymakers’ means. Counter-smuggling and nonproliferation efforts should be part of a “comprehensive security strategy,” she said. “Although halting proliferation and stopping criminal activity can sometimes be in tension with each other,” Chestnut commented, “as we’ve seen in the past year of dealing with the DPRK, we can’t have a successful policy that doesn’t incorporate both aspects, and it’s possible to make them complement rather than compete with each other.”
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photos: (above) Jacob Shapiro analyzed captured al Qa’ida documents, assembled

in a database at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center. (right) Al Qa’ida kept employee training and education records, including student identification cards, such as this one for Said Bakar. (Harmony Database, Combating Terrorism Center)

Interview with Jacob Shapiro Finding Ways to Exploit Terrorists’ Weaknesses Jacob Shapiro studies economic motivations in terrorist organizations and the organizational challenges terrorists face. Armed with a better understanding of these factors, policymakers can pursue strategies that will exploit terrorists’ weaknesses, he explains. As a CISAC predoctoral fellow, Shapiro advised Department of Homeland Security officials on revising the multilevel alert system and critiqued TOPOFF-3, a federally organized terrorism-response exercise. He joined the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point as an affiliate, collaborating on the analysis of documents captured from terrorists. A former Navy officer, Shapiro completed his dissertation, The Terrorist’s Challenge: Security, Efficiency, Control, and earned his master’s in economics and PhD in political science from Stanford. He joins the faculty at Princeton University’s Department of Politics in winter 2008. Q: What impact do you hope your research will have, and on whom? I’d like to build a greater appreciation among both policymakers and the public for how normal [terrorist] groups are. When we treat these groups as special, we do two negative things. First, we blind ourselves to certain opportunities for degrading their ability to conduct attacks. Second, we greatly exaggerate the threat. These are organizations made of normal human beings, with all the frailties, personality conflicts, and disagreements that implies. They face a very hard task, and we should not expect them to be any better than other organizations operating in similarly difficult environments. Q: How did you get involved with the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point? What does your work with the center involve? A close friend, Lt. Col. Joe Felter, took over as director of the CTC after finishing his PhD in political science here at Stanford. He asked me to help out with its first report analyzing the U.S. government’s database of captured al-Qa’ida documents — something called the Harmony Database. Our first report laid out why al-Qa’ida was trying to become so bureaucratic before the invasion of Afghanistan and why it was doing so. Our analysis stresses that, by their nature, terrorist organizations such as al-Qa’ida face difficulties in almost any environment. Many of their problems are common to other types of organizations. For example, leaders must delegate certain duties to middlemen or low-level operatives, but differences in personal preferences between the leadership and their operatives can create problems for
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“When we treat [terrorist] groups as special, we do two negative things. First, we blind ourselves to certain opportunities for degrading their ability to conduct attacks. Second, we greatly exaggerate the threat.”
Jacob Shapiro, CISAC predoctoral fellow

Karen and Mo Zukerman Supporting Interdisciplinary Synergies Karen D. Zukerman holds an AB (anthropology) from Stanford University and an MA (archaeology) from New York University. She is a trustee of Earthwatch Institute, serves on The Council of Fellows at the Morgan Library, and sits on the CISAC Advisors Group. Morris E. Zukerman is the president of M.E. Zukerman & Co. in New York and chairman of M.E. Zukerman Investments in London, has served on the boards of Harvard, Phillips Academy Andover, and The Spence School, and is an honorary fellow of King’s College, Cambridge University. Q: How did you learn about CISAC? Our daughter, Sarah ’03, took part in the CISAC honors program, and we found it remarkable that undergraduate education would include an interdisciplinary program on issues of international affairs. Even more remarkable was the opportunity presented to undergraduates to interact with scholars in many fields and to work with mentors in positions of distinguished government service. The inherent synergies of this access struck us as a seminal way forward and offered us an opportunity to witness its inspiration on the students in the program. Q: Why do you support CISAC? We think it is important that the work of the center is nonpartisan. At a time when governments in America and around the world find it difficult to formulate credible assessments and policies to address the problems of our time, the university and the center gather the best thinking to seek peaceful resolution to the many conflicts around the globe. Diplomacy alone without the guidance of scholars with backgrounds in history, language, law, science, and culture will be hard pressed to offer singular solutions. CISAC’s work inspired the establishment of The Zukerman Fellows, who will become the next generation of scholars and policy experts to build a more peaceful world.
photo: Karen Zukerman and CISAC’s Stephen Stedman.

the organization. To combat threats posted by al-Qa’ida, we emphasize aggravating existing conflicts among the group’s members. Our second Harmony report just came out. In it we analyzed al-Qa’ida’s experiences in the Horn of Africa. I am helping frame and understand what we’re seeing in the data, be it internal correspondence from al-Qa’ida or statistical patterns of violence in Iraq. Q: Could you say a little about how your Navy service may inform your research? It makes me much more sensitive to framing questions in ways that are useful to policymakers. Often in social science there’s a tension between using concepts that are theoretically solicitous and concepts that have clear practical implications. My experiences lead me to err on the side of practical implications. Also, it made me very aware of how important organizations are. The Navy is a fascinating conglomeration of organizations with distinct cultures that are independent for much of their training cycle but must operate in an integrated fashion when they deploy. Seeing that certainly made me more attuned to how much internal structures influence organizational behavior.

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CISAC’s John Lewis and colleagues, including CISAC’s current

co-director Siegfried Hecker, inside the control room of the 5-megawatt (electric) nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, in 2004. (DPRK) (Inset) The nuclear facilities at Yongbyon. (Digital Globe-ISIS)

Impact
CISAC makes an impact, engaging with leaders worldwide and influencing

policy that will build a safer world.

Influencing Policy

CISAC Scholars Set the Stage for Resumed Negotiations with North Korea

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea conducted missile tests in July 2006, followed by its first nuclear weapon test on October 9. At the end of that month, it announced it would return to the six-party negotiations with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States—stalled since September 2005—to discuss denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Siegfried Hecker, CISAC co-director; John Lewis, director of the Project on Peace and Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region at CISAC; and Robert Carlin, a CISAC visiting scholar, were in Pyongyang on October 31, when North Korea announced its interest in resuming the six-party talks. And in March 2007, as DPRK vice foreign minister Kim Kye Gwan headed to New York to meet with U.S. assistant secretary of state Christopher Hill, he requested a private, two-day meeting with Lewis, Hecker, Carlin, and a small group of colleagues. For North Korea, bilateral talks with the United States were key to making multilateral talks work. As Lewis briefed U.S. officials privately and later summed up in a Washington Post op-ed with Carlin, “Above all, [North Korea] wants, and has pursued steadily since 1991, a long-term, strategic relationship with the United States.” Kim told his West Coast hosts that he credited Lewis with bringing U.S. officials around to negotiating with North Korea and was pleased that Washington had decided to engage the DPRK directly. That decision was formalized in a six-party agreement on February 13, and the meeting in March was the first step in implementing that agreement. “Diplomacy is not a reward,” Lewis says. “It’s a way you get things done.” After their DPRK visit October 31–November 4, 2006, Lewis and Hecker shared their insights with policymakers. Hecker and Carlin then gave a public briefing in Washington, with Jack Pritchard, a Korea expert who had been on the trip. “We should not discount the success of their nuclear [weapon] test,” Hecker said. “However, I believe they are still a long way from having a missile-capable nuclear design,” added the emeritus director of Los Alamos National Laboratory. This was Hecker’s third time visiting North Korea and meeting with the director of its main nuclear facilities. Hecker estimated North Korea’s ability to make plutonium fuel for weapons remains “about one bomb’s worth per year,” with their 5-megawatt (electric) nuclear reactor. A 50-MW(e) reactor with a capacity 10 times greater than the one now operating was left unfinished under the 1994 DPRK–U.S. Agreed Framework. Hecker found out that the DPRK is having difficulties completing the reactor and that it would be “several years before the reactor could be completed, if at all.” Carlin said the streets of Pyongyang were crowded with cars, trucks, and motorcycles. “There were well-dressed people on the streets like I hadn’t seen before,” said the former government analyst who has traveled to North Korea 26 times since the 1970s. “We heard from them that they realize a country that cannot successfully carry on international trade is a country that cannot develop and survive,” Carlin said.
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photos: (above) CISAC honors student Lauren Young (right) and fellow Stanford

student Jonny Dorsey, in Zambia, with the late Mama Katele, who inspired the students to start a national nonprofit to fight AIDS in Africa. (FACE AIDS) (right) Young with CISAC honors graduate Dave Ryan, now FACE AIDS’ executive director.

Dave Ryan and Lauren Young Mobilizing Students to Fight AIDS in Africa Dave Ryan and Lauren Young concluded their CISAC undergraduate honors theses with policy recommendations, some of which are “already on the desks of policymakers,” according to CISAC and FSI senior fellow Stephen Stedman, who co-taught the program. But these two honors students are making an impact beyond their policy-oriented CISAC work, as Ryan takes over this fall as executive director of FACE AIDS, a nonprofit organization that Young co-founded with two Stanford classmates in 2005. With a mission “to mobilize and inspire students to fight AIDS in Africa,” the organization has opened more than 150 chapters at colleges and high schools nationwide and has raised more than $750,000 to fund comprehensive health care by Partners in Health in Rwanda to mitigate the AIDS epidemic. Among its education and fundraising activities, FACE AIDS distributes beaded AIDS-ribbon pins, which provide an income to the AIDS support group members in Zambia who make them by hand. The pins raise awareness — for AIDS testing, in communities where they are made, and for AIDS support, on U.S. campuses where they are distributed. Young and classmates Katie Bollbach and Jonny Dorsey came up with the idea for FACE AIDS while working in a refugee camp in Mwange, Zambia, in summer 2005. The trio took a year off from their Stanford studies to establish the nonprofit. Young sees social justice as a central theme in her CISAC honors research — assessing the World Bank’s approach to helping nations rebuild after war — and her work with FACE AIDS. Ryan, who first came to CISAC as a freshman research assistant to CISAC associate director Lynn Eden, finds a “significant connection” between AIDS and international security, including nuclear nonproliferation — his thesis topic. “States suffering from the poverty, orphaning, and disorder that AIDS helps create can become attractive locations for terrorist training camps, black-market nuclear weapons proliferation, and general violence and instability that can spread beyond national borders,” he explained. FACE AIDS’ new executive director says he looks forward to “expanding [the organization’s] national presence” by adding chapters and improving its use of media. “But it is most inspiring for me to hear the personal stories of students for whom FACE AIDS has changed their career paths, inspired them to travel to Africa, or even just broadened their awareness of the issue,” Ryan said. “These stories coming from across the country are how we know we are achieving our mission.”
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photo: Following CISAC’s panel discussion, “Iraq: The Way Forward,” Larry Diamond, coordinator of the democracy program at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, fielded questions from reporters.

The Way Forward in Iraq “By any reasonable definition, Iraq is in the midst of a civil war, the scale and extent of which is limited somewhat by the U.S. military presence,” James Fearon, a Stanford political science professor affiliated with CISAC, told the Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations of the House Committee on Government Reform in September 2006. News media drew on Fearon’s congressional testimony, echoing his warning about the likely failure of an attempt to divide the country’s land or resources among Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. Some news organizations began to call the fighting in Iraq a civil war, citing the research of Fearon and David Laitin, also a CISAC-affiliated political science professor. Former defense secretary William Perry, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC, served as a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, formed at Congress’ request. Headed by James A. Baker III, former secretary of state, and Lee H. Hamilton, former U.S. representative, the group advocated “new and enhanced diplomatic and political efforts in Iraq and the region, and a change in the primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq that will enable the United States to begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly.” Perry testified in January before both Senate and House armed services committees. He reinforced the study group’s call for “a change in mission, a reinvigoration of diplomacy in the region, a strengthening of the Iraqi government, and the beginning of troop redeployments.” FSI colleague Larry Diamond, who served as a senior advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, joined Perry and Fearon at the end of January for a panel discussion, “Iraq: The Way Forward,” hosted by CISAC. At the standing-room-only forum, all three experts argued against sending more troops to Iraq. The U.S. presence in Iraq and its support of the Iraqi government placed the United States in the position of siding with the Shia in the ongoing civil war, Fearon argued — a position he called “morally dubious and not in the long-term interest of the United States.” In the March 2007 issue of Foreign Affairs, Fearon suggested that the United States would do better to withdraw troops from the country so that it could balance Iraq’s factions and help effect an equitable resolution among them. Thom Shanker, the New York Times’ national security and foreign policy correspondent, delivering CISAC’s annual Drell Lecture, added that military officers saw their success in Iraq as tied to wider diplomatic and political efforts in the country and the region.
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photo: Brian Burton, 2007 CISAC honors graduate and Firestone

Medal winner.

Pierre R. Schwob Supporting Insight and Outreach Pierre R. Schwob was born in America and raised in Geneva, Switzerland. He has taught computer science, licensed his intellectual properties in radio data and internet technologies, and written books on chess, calculators, and history. Schwob currently directs ClassicalArchives.com, the largest classical music site on the internet. Q: What international/national security issues most concern you? The wayward and costly invasion of Iraq at the expense of a stable Afghanistan; the intentional and grotesque rejection of alternative planning for post Iraq-victory; the unwillingness to talk to our adversaries; the abandonment of the Agreed Framework with North Korea; the misrepresentation or censorship of scientific data; and the loss of America’s prestige abroad are some of the examples of what I find lamentable. Q: What provides you with hope? The American genius is expressed partly by its unique ability to regenerate, to reinvent itself. We will need the wisdom and intelligence such as that demonstrated so brilliantly by the people at CISAC and the Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, which I also support at Stanford, to redress our course and to avert potentially catastrophic disasters that may threaten our societies and civilization. Q: Why do you support CISAC? Nothing has made me more optimistic than meeting the wonderfully talented and thoughtful people at CISAC. One cannot be but humbled when listening to Bill Perry, Scott Sagan, or any of their distinguished colleagues. I feel particularly fortunate to know them and to have been able to support some of their endeavors— particularly with regard to their outreach efforts.

Brian Burton Why the New Counterinsurgency Doctrine Isn’t the Answer In Iraq Brian Burton studied the U.S. military’s approach to the war in Iraq and found its doctrine ill-matched to the task. In his CISAC honors thesis, “Counterinsurgency Principles and U.S. Military Effectiveness in Iraq,” Burton found that what has been hailed in the press as a “new counterinsurgency strategy” is not really new. The military’s new manual echoes a mid-20th century strategy to “clear, hold, and build”— to defeat the insurgents, secure territory, and rebuild infrastructure to support a functioning society. The fact that the doctrine is outdated is almost beside the point, though, according to Burton’s research. It doesn’t begin to address the situation in Iraq, which bears little resemblance to insurgencies of past decades. The doctrine “doesn’t address the sectarian violence, the political violence, the international terrorism, or criminality” present in Iraq, Burton said. Nor is the U.S. military equipped, configured, or trained to perform the kind of nation-building mission that Iraq would require, he found, as he surveyed military sources and interviewed officers who were experts on the doctrine and had served in Iraq. “There’s a real mismatch between the type of campaign the U.S. is trying to wage and the means it used to carry it out,” he said. “What’s needed is an integrated nationbuilding doctrine that emphasizes civilian, not just military, capabilities,” he concluded. Now pursuing a master’s degree in security studies at Georgetown University, Burton plans to elaborate on his thesis in a book, in collaboration with another scholar.
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photos: (left) David Patel, 2006–2007 CISAC fellow, studied Islam and politics

during an eight-month stay in Iraq. (above) Patel and an Iraqi friend, at the grave of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadiq al-Sadr (Muqtada al-Sadr’s father) in Najaf.

David Patel Illuminating the Role of Islam in Iraq’s New Political Culture To study Islamic and political institutions in the Middle East, David Patel read deeply in his subject and became fluent in Arabic. He also immersed himself in Iraqi culture by living in Basra during “the most perilous moments of Iraq’s history,” as Patel’s dissertation advisor, David Laitin, points out. “He has been an invaluable national resource in sharing his findings on and his interpretations of events taking place in Iraq today,” said Laitin, a Stanford political science professor affiliated with CISAC and the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. Patel made time for interviews with reporters, such as National Public Radio’s Michele Kelleman, and to serve as a consultant to the U.S. government while completing his PhD and conducting research as a fellow at CDDRL and CISAC. He analyzed the relationship of religious and political institutions, which Laitin noted is “a central theme in political science today and also a fundamental concern in policy.” “I realized that for better of worse, Iraq was going to be the defining experience in the Middle East for some time,” said Patel, who is now an assistant professor of government at Cornell University. A visit with a friend doing relief work in Iraq in September 2003 provided him with a unique research opportunity. Iraq served as a “natural experiment” for studying Islam’s role in political action, Patel explained, as “the state disappeared but Islamic institutions stayed” after the defeat of Saddam Hussein’s government. “Services collapsed everywhere at the same time,” he said. His visit stretched to an eight-month stay in Basra during the Coalition Provisional Authority era. He observed the way Islamic clerics — specifically the hierarchically organized Shia — inspired civic participation that didn’t exist in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s rule. Patel found Shiite clerics’ Friday sermons gave Iraqi citizens the wherewithal to organize and resume services, such as trash collecting. Patel traveled around Iraq freely by car, and his facility with Arabic enabled him to meet and befriend locals. That changed in April 2004, with the first uprising of Shia forces loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr. Increased violence in the country forced Patel to leave. “Under extremely challenging conditions, [Patel] has made himself into one of a very small number of experts on Iraqi politics,” said Professor James Fearon, a CISAC and CDDRL political scientist with whom Patel studied.
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Katherine Schlosser receives her honors certificate from CISAC senior fellow Stephen Stedman. CISAC senior research scholar Paul Stockton, who led the 2006–2007 program with Stedman, looks on.

Insight & Impact
CISAC extends its insight and impact by training the next generation of

security specialists who will carry forward this important work.

Training the Next Generation

Katherine Schlosser How an RNA Test Could Help Save Lives In a Bioterror Attack In her CISAC honors thesis, biology major Katherine Schlosser found that gene expression analysis, a technique advanced in the last 10 years, could form the basis of an early warning system for bioterror attacks or disease outbreaks. Experts agree that early detection of a disease is the key to mounting an effective public response to an outbreak, whether the cause is deliberate, as in a terrorist attack, or natural, as in a flu epidemic. “Traditional clinical diagnosis,” based on a patient’s symptoms, “will never be able to detect an attack or outbreak faster than the time it takes for the first patient to become ill and visit health-care facilities,” Schlosser explained. “Gene expression has the potential to allow diagnosis during the presymptomatic period,” before people know they are sick. Rather than testing blood for specific pathogens, doctors could test a few drops of blood for a variety of diseases at once by examining cells’ gene expression, the process that turns RNA information into proteins. Scientists have begun to note patterns in gene expression that signal the presence of cancer or infectious diseases such as malaria or smallpox. “It is important to start envisioning a system for implementing this technology as soon as possible,” Schlosser said. She suggested the RNA test be used for routine screening of blood samples collected during medical examinations, to provide early warning of dangerous infectious diseases. “As researchers are compiling a comprehensive library of patterns,” policymakers can prepare a routine screening system to implement as soon as the technology is ready, she noted. Schlosser’s thesis advisor, Dean Wilkening, who directs CISAC’s science program, said her research “provides a clear articulation of the scientific merits and practical benefits associated with this technology.” He added that it “is suitable for policymakers interested in the dual questions of detecting emerging infectious diseases and bioterrorism in a timely manner.” “I hope that my research will inspire more funding for the work with DNA microarrays that is ongoing,” Schlosser said. “I have always thought that it was important for scientists to be involved in policy about scientific issues. Bioterrorism seemed like a place where I could start doing that.” Now enrolled in a joint MD -master’s of public health program at Case Western Reserve University, Schlosser is interested in studying infectious diseases and working in global health.

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photo: (left to right) William Perry, former CISAC co-director, with current co-directors Scott Sagan and Siegfried Hecker.

Siegfried Hecker CISAC’s New Co-Director For 11 years, Siegfried Hecker was responsible for certifying annually the safety and security of three-quarters of the nation’s nuclear arsenal, as director of Los Alamos National Laboratory from 1986 through 1997. He also directed a broad spectrum of defense and civilian research. Now Los Alamos laboratory’s emeritus director is fulfilling a long-held dream of being a professor. In January 2007 he became CISAC’s fifth science co-director, a senior fellow at FSI, and professor (research) in the Stanford School of Engineering’s Department of Management Science and Engineering. During his tenure as director at Los Alamos, Hecker helped Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union improve the security of their nuclear materials and nuclear facilities by building lab-to-lab relations with his counterparts across the former Soviet Union. He continues that work today and has made nearly 40 trips to Russia. He has also met with nuclear experts in other nations, including the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Pakistan, and India. “I seek collaboration with nuclear scientists around the world to reduce nuclear dangers — particularly those associated with lack of security of nuclear materials,” Hecker said. “My aim is to help countries secure their nuclear materials and keep them out of the wrong hands.” On visits to North Korea with CISAC colleague John Lewis, Hecker met with the director of the DPRK nuclear program and toured the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon. In fall quarters of 2005 and 2006, as a visiting professor at CISAC, he co-taught Technology and National Security with CISAC colleague and former defense secretary William Perry. Last spring he taught Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Energy, a sophomore seminar. Both courses are offered by the Department of Management Science and Engineering. Hecker had an offer to teach at the University of Illinois after earning his PhD in metallurgy at Case Western Reserve University. But a postdoctoral position at Los Alamos led him to pursue a research career outside academe. By his account, he was drawn to Los Alamos by its geography as well as by the professional opportunity it offered. “I grew up in Austria on skis,” Hecker said, “and came to the U.S. at age 13—to Cleveland, Ohio,” where there was hardly a hill in sight. Los Alamos lay at 7,300-feet elevation, with its own ski area, and close to Sante Fe and the famed Taos ski resort.
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“My aim is to help countries secure their nuclear materials and keep them out of the wrong hands.”
Siegfried Hecker, CISAC co-director

Hecker took a summer research assistant position at Los Alamos and honeymooned with his wife, Nina, in the mountains. After postdoctoral research at Los Alamos, he worked for a time at General Motors Research Laboratories, where he studied steel and aluminum, before returning to Los Alamos as a technical staff member. There he developed an infectious enthusiasm for his new subject — plutonium, the most complex element in the periodic table. “I tried to understand why plutonium defies most conventional metallurgical and physics wisdom. The nuclear properties and role of plutonium in nuclear weapons came much later,” he said. Selected to head the laboratory, he looked to Norris Bradbury, the laboratory’s second director, for an understanding of the institution’s role. Hecker recalls Bradbury saying, “‘We don’t build bombs to kill people. We build them to buy time for political leaders to learn to resolve their differences.’” Hecker is still guided by that vision, he says, as he advises administration officials and members of Congress and trains a new generation of technical and political experts on nuclear and international security issues.

Michael Sulmeyer, 2002 CISAC Honors Graduate How I Came to CISAC “I remember stumbling in late to a lecture in Cubberly auditorium. The course was the old PS 138, International Security in a Changing World. I hadn’t a clue about international security, but I was blown away listening to Dean Wilkening describe the three different layers of a national missile defense system. I didn’t know you could study something like that. This was a real treat. I went on to take as many courses as I could from CISAC-affiliated faculty and was first in line to sign up for the new CISAC undergraduate honors program.” Sulmeyer is now a PhD candidate in politics and international relations at Oxford University. Prior to graduate school, he spent a year working at the Pentagon and was detailed for several months to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.
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photo: CISAC predoctoral fellow Alisa Carrigan found that nations with successful nuclear operations did not recruit experts from overseas, as current nonproliferation policies and programs assume.

Alisa Carrigan Using Science and Social Science to Solve Security Problems From its founding by physicist Sidney Drell and political scientist John Lewis, CISAC has fostered collaboration among scientists and social scientists to tackle security problems that can’t be solved with the tools of a single academic field. Alisa Carrigan is one researcher who embodies that interdisciplinary spirit. Carrigan, a 2006–2007 CISAC predoctoral fellow, earned her PhD in war studies from King’s College in London. Her dissertation, The Best Knowledge Money Can Buy, examines how nations build nuclear weapons expertise and offers recommendations for preventing the spread of this expertise to illicit programs. Nonproliferation experts “seem to think that, for any number of reasons, proliferating states will try to recruit foreign scientists and engineers to work on their nuclear programs,” Carrigan said. “And we have put in place a number of policies and programs that try to stop the recruitment of un- or under-employed scientists, like those in the former Soviet Union.” To the contrary, Carrigan found that nations did not build nuclear expertise by recruiting foreigners. Instead, they sent their own people abroad for technical training. After the Cold War, the U.S. and international communities “were so busy looking for Russians being recruited away from Russia that we didn’t pay any attention to who was coming into Russia and for what purpose,” she said. She suggests tightening export controls to include expertise as well as materials for making nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, to ensure that “technical assistance isn’t being diverted into covert programs.” As a government and psychology major in college, Carrigan said she began “interpreting” technical matters during a summer internship with the public affairs office at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. “I had to make science understandable to the public,” she said. “I’d go to the scientists and say, ‘Explain this to me,’ and sometimes I’d go back again,” she said, until she understood. Her doctoral research entailed interviews with nuclear weapons designers, uranium enrichment specialists, metallurgists, and other technical experts — among them some of the nation’s nuclear luminaries who participated in the Manhattan Project. “All of the experts I talked to were very open with me, very willing to tell me what they knew or what they thought,” she said.
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“After the Cold War, we were so busy looking for Russians being recruited away from Russia that we didn’t pay any attention to who was coming into Russia and for what purpose.”
Alisa Carrigan, CISAC predoctoral fellow

Keith Coleman Supporting Life-Changing Training Keith Coleman (BS Computer Science ’02, MS ’04), member of the CISAC Honors Class of 2001–2002, received Stanford’s Firestone Medal, which recognizes the most distinguished undergraduate research produced at Stanford each year. Coleman served on Stanford University’s Board of Trustees Committee on Academic Policy, Planning and Management and co-invented a driving directions service that gives step-by-step directions over the telephone. (patent pending). As a product manager at Google he runs Gmail, Google’s e-mail service, and, with assistance from CISAC and William J. Perry, teaches MS&E 91, a Stanford course on U.S. national security and the internet that he and two other computer science students created in 2004. Q: What brought you to CISAC? As an engineer at Stanford, it’s tough to study anything but engineering — there are a lot of requirements and only so much time. But after spending a quarter studying policy in Washington, I wanted to dive deeper. The CISAC Honors Program was the perfect opportunity. The program was light years ahead of others at the university in offering hands-on time and attention, access to experts, and exposure to real policymakers and researchers. Q: Why did you choose to support CISAC? CISAC has been life-changing. Through the honors program, I spent my senior year researching security policy with some of the world’s top experts, and I continue to educate new generations of Stanford students on interdisciplinary computer security. CISAC is also visionary. It was one of the first departments at Stanford to realize the value of interdisciplinary work. Scott Sagan and Bill Perry have a vision for international security education and dedicate their time and energy to realize it. I want to support visionaries like them.

They told Carrigan how they gained expertise specific to nuclear programs, providing details often not covered in histories. A former high-level scientist in Saddam Hussein’s regime shared “practically every detail of the training and experimentation that went on in Iraq’s centrifuge program — where they sent people and when, what those people brought back, and how they were integrated into the program,” she said. Carrigan identified a clear pattern among states with successful nuclear programs. Those states sent scientists abroad for training as needed, then brought them home to apply their skills and to help train colleagues. In a December 2006 Capitol Hill briefing, Carrigan advised congressional staff and other policy experts to address technical assistance — in addition to transfer of materials and weapons — in nonproliferation efforts. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should be given access to “scrutinize more closely a state’s nuclear scientists and engineers, to see what they’re working on and with whom,” she added. With this information, Carrigan said, “the IAEA could piece together a much better picture of what a state is or is not doing.”
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CISAC’s 2007 class of undergraduate honors students. Paul Stockton (left) and Stephen Stedman (right) led the program; Noah Richmond (back row, right), CISAC’s Zukerman Fellow, served as teaching assistant; and Michelle Gellner (back row, second from

left) coordinates the program.

CISAC congratulates the 2006 graduates of its undergraduate honors

program in international security studies. Professor Stephen Stedman and senior research scholar Paul Stockton co-directed the 2006–2007 program. “In every potential career you have expressed a desire to pursue, from medicine to the financial sector and beyond, we need your perspectives and research contributions, to deal with emerging threats to global security.”
Paul Stockton, addressing CISAC’s 2007 undergraduate honors class

Honors Graduates

Brian Burton, political science Thesis: Counterinsurgency Principles and U.S. Military Effectiveness in Iraq Firestone Medal Winner Destination: Georgetown University, to pursue a master’s degree in security studies Aspiration: “A high-level Cabinet or NSC position to cap a long career of public service in foreign policy.” Martine Cicconi, political science Thesis: Weighing the Costs of Aggression and Restraint: Explaining Variations in India’s Response to Terrorism Destination: Stanford University Law School Will Frankenstein, mathematics Thesis: Chinese Energy Security and International Security: A Case Study Analysis Destination: The Institute for Defense Analyses in Alexandria, Va., for a summer internship Kunal Gullapalli, management science and engineering Thesis: Understanding Water Rationality: A GameTheoretic Analysis of Cooperation and Conflict Over Scarce Water Destination: The Investment Banking Division at Morgan Stanley in Los Angeles Sherri Hansen, political science Thesis: Explaining the Use of Child Soldiers William J. Perry Award Winner Destination: Oxford University, England, to pursue master’s degree in development studies Andy Leifer, physics and political science Thesis: International Scientific Engagement for Mitigating Emerging Nuclear Security Threats Destination: Harvard University, to pursue a PhD in biophysics James Madsen, political science Thesis: Filling the Gap: The Rise of Military Contractors in the Modern Military Destination: World travel; then San Francisco to open a bar Most valuable thing learned: “The importance of a good research design.” Nico Martinez, political science Thesis: Protracted Civil War and Failed Peace Negotiations in Colombia Destination: Washington, D.C., to serve as a staff member for Senator Harry Reid

Seepan V. Parseghian, political science and Russian/Eurasian studies Thesis: The Survival of Unrecognized States in the Hobbesian Jungle Destination: Undecided at graduation Greatest influence: “My thesis advisor, Professor Fearon, for constantly challenging me and believing in my work.” Dave Ryan, international relations Thesis: Security Guarantees in Nonproliferation Negotiations Destination: Stanford University, to serve as executive director of FACE AIDS Katherine Schlosser, biology Thesis: Gene Expression Profiling: A New Warning System for Bioterrorism Destination: Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, to pursue a joint medical degree and master’s in public health Aspiration: “To keep conducting innovative research and to eventually rejoin the international security studies community in some capacity.” Nigar Shaikh, human biology and political science Thesis: No Longer Just the “Spoils of War”: Rape as an Instrument of Military Policy Destination: New York, to be a litigation legal assistant at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP Christine Su, history and political science Thesis: British Counterterrorism Legislation Since 2000: Parlimentary and Government Evaluations of Enhanced Security Destination: Stanford University, to finish her undergraduate degree; Su completed the honors program as a junior Aspiration: “To publish parts of my thesis in undergrad research journals.” Lauren Young, international relations Thesis: Peacebuilding Without Politics: The World Bank and Post-Conflict Reconstruction Destination: Stanford University, to finish her undergraduate degree; Young completed the honors program as a junior Aspiration: “To make peacebuilding missions more effective and efficient so more countries start down a path of peace and development instead of renewed conflict.”

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Former Defense Secretary William Perry (right), co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC, served on the Iraq Study Group, led by former Secretary of State James Baker III (center) and former U.S. Representative Lee Hamilton. Former U.S. Senator Alan Simpson (left) was also a group member. (Jim Young/Reuters)

CISAC maintains high academic standards of independent research by

subjecting its work to peer-review in scholarly and professional publications. This rigorous policy-relevant research serves as the basis of CISAC’s policy influence, as the center’s scholars engage in public debate through op-eds, congressional testimony, and public lectures, in addition to meetings with policymakers. Here are selected examples of our scholarly and public writings and talks.

Selected Publications and Presentations

Books and Reports James A. Baker III, Lee H. Hamilton, Robert M. Gates, Vernon E. Jordan, Jr., Edwin Meese III, Sandra Day O’Connor, Leon E. Panetta, William J. Perry, Charles S. Robb, and Alan K. Simpson. The Iraq Study Group Report, United States Institute of Peace, December 6, 2006. Ashton B. Carter, Michael May, and William J. Perry. The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following a Nuclear Blast, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard and Stanford universities, May 31, 2007. Combating Terrorism Center. Al-Qa’ida’s (mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa, Combating Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, West Point, May 4, 2007. (Jacob N. Shapiro contributed.) Stephen E. Flynn. The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation, Council on Foreign Relations and Random House, 2007. Siegfried S. Hecker. Report on North Korean Nuclear Program, CISAC, November 15, 2006. Paul Kapur. Dangerous Deterrent: Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia, Stanford University Press, 2007. Michael Kenney. From Pablo to Osama: Trafficking and Terrorist Networks, Government Bureaucracies, and Competitive Adaptation, Penn State University Press, 2007. Charles Perrow. The Next Catastrophe: Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters, Princeton University Press, 2007. Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall. Alliances and American Security, Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, November 1, 2006. Jeremy M. Weinstein. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics), Cambridge University Press, 2006. Congressional Testimony and Public Lectures Herbert Abrams. “The Fourth Dimension of Biomedicine,” Commencement Address, Stanford University School of Medicine, June 16, 2007.

Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. “Restoring Habeas Corpus: Protecting American Values and the Great Writ,” U.S. Senate, Committee on the Judiciary, May 22, 2007. James Fearon. “Iraq: Democracy or Civil War?” U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations, September 15, 2006. William J. Perry. “Alternative Perspectives on Iraq,” U.S. House of Representatives, Armed Services Committee, January 17, 2007. William J. Perry. “The Situation in Iraq and the Administration’s Strategy,” U.S. Senate, Armed Services Committee, January 25, 2007. Paul Stockton. “Five- and Ten-Year Homeland Security Goals,” U.S. House of Representatives, Appropriations Committee, Homeland Security Subcommittee, January 30, 2007. Op-Eds and Commentary Robert Carlin and John W. Lewis. “What North Korea Really Wants,” Washington Post, January 27, 2007. Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe. “Why Iraq Teaches Nothing About Intervention in Darfur,” San Jose Mercury News, November 6, 2006. Albert Chang and Robert C. Bordone. “Real Superpowers Negotiate,” washingtonpost.com, October 26, 2006. (Chang was a 2006 CISAC honors graduate.) David Laitin. “Uncle Sam’s Lonely Predicament,” Newsday, December 8, 2006. Michael M. May. “The Null Hypothesis in Iraq,” Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007. William J. Perry. “In Search of a North Korea Policy,” Washington Post, October 11, 2006. William J. Perry, Michael M. May, and Ashton Carter. “After the Bomb,” New York Times, June 12, 2007. Pavel Podvig. “Behind Russia and Iran’s Nuclear Reactor Dispute,” The Bulletin Online, March 26, 2007.

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Pavel Podvig. “Boris Yeltsin’s Arms Control Legacy,” The Bulletin Online, April 30, 2007. Pavel Podvig. “Life after START,” The Bulletin Online, January 9, 2007. Pavel Podvig. “Missile Defense: The Russian Reaction,” The Bulletin Online, February 26, 2007. Pavel Podvig. “A U.S.-Russian Missile Defense Cooperative?” The Bulletin Online, April 24, 2007. Lawrence M. Wein. “Biological and Chemical Safety Nets,” Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2007. Lawrence M. Wein. “Face Facts,” New York Times, October 25, 2006. Leonard Weiss and Larry Diamond. “Congress Must Stop an Attack on Iran,” Los Angeles Times, February 5, 2007. Professional and Scholarly Articles and Chapters Michael P. Atkinson, Zheng Su, Nina Alphey, Luke S. Alphey, Paul G. Coleman, and Lawrence M. Wein. “Analyzing the Control of MosquitoBorne Diseases by a Dominant Lethal Genetic System,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104.22 (29 May 2007): 9540-9545. Chaim Braun. “The Nuclear Energy Market and the Nonproliferation Regime,” Nonproliferation Review 13.3 (November 2006). George Bunn. “Enforcing International Standards: Protecting Nuclear Materials From Terrorists Post-9/11,” Arms Control Today 37.1 (January– February 2007). George Bunn. “Nuclear Safeguards: How Far Can Inspectors Go?” IAEA Bulletin 48.1 (March 2007): 49-53.

George Bunn. “U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement: Can President Bush Refuse to Follow the Expressed Will of Congress Concerning Nuclear Exports to India?” Lawyer’s Alliance for World Security (17 January 2007). Sheena Chestnut. “Illicit Activity and Proliferation: North Korean Smuggling Networks,” International Security 32.1 (Summer 2007): 80-111. (Based on Chestnut’s 2005 CISAC honors thesis.) Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. “Auditing Executive Discretion,” Notre Dame Law Review 82.1 (November 2006): 227-312. Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. “Running Aground: The Hidden Environmental and Regulatory Implications of Homeland Security,” American Constitution Society for Law and Policy (May 2007). Lynn Eden. “Response to My Critics,” Review Symposium on Whole World on Fire, with comments by Renee Anspach, Hugh Gusterson, Thomas P. Hughes, Social Studies of Science 36.4 (August 2006): 628-656. Lynn Eden. “‘Why?’ Charles Tilly’s Cabinet of Wonders,” Symposium on Tilly’s Why? Qualitative Sociology 29.4 (December 2006): 551-555. James Fearon. “Iraq’s Civil War,” Foreign Affairs 86.2 (March–April 2007): 2-15. M. Steven Fish and Matthew Kroenig. “Diversity, Conflict, and Democracy: Some Evidence from Eurasia and East Europe,” Democratization 13.5 (December 2006): 828-842. Siegfried S. Hecker. “Toward a Comprehensive Safeguards System: Keeping Fissile Materials Out of Terrorists’ Hands,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607 (September 2006): 121-132.

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selected publications and presentations

Siegfried S. Hecker and William Liou. “Dangerous Dealings: North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities and the Threat of Export to Iran,” Arms Control Today 37.2 (March 2007): 6-11. David Holloway. “Jockeying for Position in the Postwar World: Soviet Entry into the War with Japan in August 1945,” in The End of the Pacific War: Reappraisals, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, ed. (Stanford University, 2007). Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein. “Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil War,” American Political Science Review 100.3 (August 2006): 429-447. Michael M. May, Jay Davis, and Raymond Jeanloz. “Preparing for the Worst,” Nature 443.7114 (25 October 2006): 907-908. Michael Miller. “Nuclear Attribution as Deterrence,” Nonproliferation Review 14.1 (March 2007). (Based on Miller’s 2006 CISAC honors thesis.) Pavel Podvig. “Reducing the Risk of an Accidental Launch,” Science and Global Security 14.2-3 (September–December 2006): 75-115. Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz. “A Nuclear Iran: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster?” Journal of International Affairs (Spring/Summer 2007). Sonja Schmid. “Nuclear Renaissance in the Age of Global Warming,” Bridges 12 (December 2006). Jacob N. Shapiro. “Strictly Confidential,” Foreign Policy (July/August 2007). Jacob N. Shapiro. “Terrorist Organizations’ Vulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A Rational Choice Perspective,” in Terrorism Financing and State Responses: A Comparative Perspective, Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds. (Stanford University Press, 2007).

Jacob N. Shapiro and Rudolph P. Darken. “Homeland Security: A New Strategic Paradigm?” in Strategy in the Contemporary World, 2nd ed., John Baylis, James J. Wirtz, Colin S. Gray, and Eliot Cohen, eds. (Oxford University Press, 2006). Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall. “The Case for Alliances, ” Joint Force Quarterly 43.4 (October 2006): 54-59. Lisa Stampnitzky. “How Does ‘Culture’ Become ‘Capital’? Cultural and Institutional Struggles Over ‘Character and Personality’ at Harvard,” Sociological Perspectives 49.4 (December 2006): 461-481. Steven Weber, Naazneen Barma, Matthew Kroenig, and Ely Ratner. “How Globalization Went Bad,” Foreign Policy (January/February 2007). Lawrence M. Wein. “Preventing Catastrophic Chemical Attacks,” Issues in Science & Technology 23 (Fall 2006): 31-33. Lawrence M. Wein, A.H. Wilkins, Manas Baveja, and Stephen E. Flynn. “Preventing the Importation of Illicit Nuclear Materials in Shipping Containers,” Risk Analysis 26.5 (October 2006): 1377-1393. Jeremy M. Weinstein. “Africa’s Revolutionary Deficit,” Foreign Policy (July/August 2007). Yunhua Zou. “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: A View from China,” Nonproliferation Review 13.2 (July 2006). (Based on Zou’s research as a 2004–2005 CISAC visiting scholar.)

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CISAC’s researchers, staff, and students on the steps of Stanford University’s Encina Hall, CISAC’s home.

“CISAC is a truly challenging and engaging intellectual community. I feel as though I have received something of a crash course in political science and security studies, with the faculty and other fellows always willing to engage my questions. Being at CISAC has also been invaluable to my research in practical ways, aiding in making contacts with members of the terrorism studies community and other homeland security researchers.”
Lisa Stampnitzky, CISAC predoctoral fellow

CISAC People

CISAC Directors Siegfried S. Hecker, Co-Director Scott D. Sagan, Co-Director Lynn Eden, Associate Director for Research Elizabeth A. Gardner, Associate Director for Administration and External Affairs

Executive Committee William J. Perry, Chair Kenneth Arrow John H. Barton Coit D. Blacker (ex officio) Edward A. Feigenbaum Siegfried S. Hecker (ex officio) Joshua Lederberg Michael A. McFaul Norman M. Naimark M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell Lee D. Ross Scott D. Sagan (ex officio) Lucy Shapiro James L. Sweeney Faculty and Research Staff Herbert L. Abrams David M. Bernstein Coit D. Blacker George Bunn Wesley Clark Martha Crenshaw Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar Lynn Eden James D. Fearon Stephen E. Flynn David J. Holloway Bruce Jones David Laitin Gail W. Lapidus Joshua Lederberg John W. Lewis Michael M. May Michael A. McFaul William J. Perry Pavel Podvig Joseph Prueher Scott D. Sagan

Kenneth Schultz John Shalikashvili Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall Rebecca Slayton James J. Spilker, Jr. Stephen J. Stedman Paul Stockton John H. Tilelli Lawrence M. Wein Allen S. Weiner Jeremy M. Weinstein Dean Wilkening Xue Litai Individual Affiliates Christopher F. Chyba Keith Coleman Gilbert Decker David Elliott Lewis Franklin David Hafemeister Ron Hassner Alla Kassianova L. David Montague Richard Rhodes Roger Speed Visiting Scholars Robert Carlin Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe Nina Hachigian Macartan Humphreys Koichi Nishitani Charles Perrow Science Fellows Chaim Braun Jungmin Kang Sonja Schmid Leonard Weiss Bekhzod Yuldashev Predoctoral/Postdoctoral Fellows Alisa Carrigan Laura K. Donohue Matthew Kroenig David Patel

Philip Roessler Jacob N. Shapiro Lisa Stampnitzky Zukerman Fellow Noah Richmond Staff Evelyn Castaneda Kate Chadwick Sharan L. Daniel Leah Feliz Kimberly Fuhrman Elizabeth A. Gardner Michelle Gellner A. Nancy Gonzalez Deborah Gordon Tracy Hill Carole Hyde Justin Liszanckie Rupal Mehta Jenny Pong Jennifer Severin Lisa Sickorez Myrna Soper Kimberly Sulpizi Lorraine Theodorakakis Nora M. Sweeny Josh Weddle

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Grateful Thanks to Our Generous Supporters
Philanthropic Leadership The generosity of our donors enabled CISAC scholars to address the critical security issues of our time.
Lifetime Gifts and Pledges CISAC gratefully acknowledges these donors for their generous support of gifts and pledges totaling $100,000 or more since the center’s founding:*
Anonymous (2) Michael and Barbara Berberian Daniel Case William Edwards Jamie and Priscilla Halper Benjamin Hewlitt Reuben and Ingrid Hills Franklin P. Johnson Joseph Kampf Marjorie Kiewit Jeong Kim Melvin and Joan Lane Stephen M. Lefkowitz William J. Perry Pierre R. Schwob Richard Trutanic J. Fred Weintz Albert and Cicely Wheelon Anne E. and John C. Whitehead Karen D. and M.E. Zukerman Keith Coleman Simone and Tench Coxe Richard C. DeGolia Karen Edwards David and Arline Elliott Lewis and Nancy Franklin Robert C. and Mary Layne Gregg Jamie and Priscilla Halper Gary and Helen Howard Harmon William N. Harris John Harvey and Sara Mendelson Christine Hemrick Larry and Amber Henninger Benjamin Hewlett (Flora Family Foundation) Frederick Iseman Kenneth I. Juster Niloo Farhad and Soroush Kaboli Abdo George and Sally Kadifa Andrew Kassoy and Kamy Wicoff Herant and Stina Katchadourian David Keller Loren and Anne Kieve Marjorie Kiewit Daniel Kliman J. Burke Knapp Andrea and Paul Koontz Melvin and Joan Lane Nicole Lederer and Larry Orr William Levi Doug and Virginia Levick Gilman Louie and Amy Chan Meena Mallipeddi Joseph and Elizabeth Mandato Laird McCulloch Jonathan Medalia Michael and Davida Rabbino Dr. William J. and Joan P. Reckmeyer Richard and Ginger Rhodes Jesse and Mindy Rogers Scott D. Sagan and Sujitpan Lamsam (John and Margaret Sagan Foundation) Yoav Schlesinger Pierre R. Schwob David Seidenwurm and Page Robbins Anthony Stayner and Elizabeth Cross James and Emily Thurber Tom and Rosemary Tisch Jim and Carol Toney Arthur Trueger Patricia and James White Phyllis Willits Francisco Wong-Diaz, PhD, Esq. Kathryn Zoglin Karen D. and M.E. Zukerman

Corporations and Laboratories
The Boeing Company Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Los Alamos National Laboratory Sandia National Laboratories Sun Microsystems

Foundations
Carnegie Corporation of New York Compton Foundation/Danforth Fund The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation The Henry Luce Foundation The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway The National Science Foundation Naval Postgraduate School Nuclear Threat Initiative Ploughshares Fund Smith Richardson Foundation The United Nations Foundation

Donors 2006–2007 CISAC gratefully acknowledges the following individuals, foundations, and corporations for their generous support during the 2006–2007 fiscal year:*
Anonymous (2) Minoru Sam and Anna Araki Anne R. and Gregory M. Avis David and Anne Bernstein David Bezanson Peter and Helen Bing Mark Chandler and Christina Kenrick

Anne Avis David Bernstein Mark Chandler Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe Jamie Halper

Benjamin Hewlett Laurene Powell Jobs David Keller Gilman Louie S. Atiq Raza

Jesse Rogers Fred Weintz Karen D. Zukerman

*Every effort has been made to provide an accurate listing of our donors. In the event of an inadvertent error or omission, please contact A. Nancy Gonzalez at 650-724-8055 or anancyg@stanford.edu.

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donors

Design: AKAcreativegroup.com

Volunteer Leadership Members of the CISAC Advisory Group dedicate their time and considerable talents to the center’s efforts to build a safer world. They offer diverse experiences, thoughtful perspective, and wide-ranging expertise as well as providing generous philanthropic support to the center.

Fiscal Year 2005–2006

Revenue * % Grants and contracts Endowment payout Gifts University general funds Affiliate income University one-time support Total: $3,967,919 42.5% 24.2% 22.6% 5.7% 3.5% 1.5% 100.0%

Expenses % Faculty, research staff, and visiting scholars Fellowships, students Administrative staff Benefits Conferences, seminars, and travel Indirect costs Expendables and services Computing and telecommunications Total: $4,267,422 25.0% 18.1% 17.5% 11.8% 14.5% 8.6% 2.8% 1.7% 100.0%

*Because grant and contract sponsors often provide funding for projects that span more than a fiscal year, revenue in a given year may appear to exceed or fall short of expenditures.
note: 2005–2006 figures were the most recent ones available at the time this Overview went to press.

(back cover) CISAC science fellow Sonja Schmid asks a question at a CISAC seminar, as CISAC predoctoral fellow Lisa Stampnitzky and visiting scholar Koichi Nishitani listen.
photo:

CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND COOPERATION

Stanford University Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Encina Hall Stanford, CA 94305-6165 Phone: 650-723-9625 Fax: 650-724-5683 http://cisac.stanford.edu