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LITERATURE REVIEW

Technical analysis might sound enticing on paper but how does it actually perform in reality?

EARLY DAYS

In a pioneering paper, Fama and Blume (1966) found no evidence ofsignificant profits
using a class of technical trading rules in the stock market.
Their findings were backed up by Van Horne and Parker (1967, 1968) and Jensen
andBenington (1970).

RECENT WORK

However, more recent work by Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron(1992) and Sullivan,
Timmermann and White (1999) have refuted the idea.
Otherstudies that found positive profits using technical analysis include studies
byMenkhoff and Schlumberger (1995), Lee and Mathur (1996a, 1996b), Maillet
andMichel (2000), Lee et al. (2001) and Martin (2001).
In the paper by Park and Irvin(2007) they conclude that a majority of modern studies
showed that technical tradingstrategies generated positive economic profits.

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OTHER PAPERS

Most of the papers on technical analysis have focused on daily data while only ahandful has
taken an intraday approach. These papers include Curcio et al (1997),Neely and Weller (2003),
Sager and Taylor (2004), Melvin, Sager and Taylor (2006)and Kozhan and Salmon (2010).

The former two studies found no evidence of positiveexcess returns after transaction costs are
considered. Using tick by tick data, Kozhanand Salmon found that excess profits exists for a
trading rule in 2003 but these profitsdisappeared by 2008.

In addition, almost all studies on technical analysis in the foreign exchange markethave focused
on the major currencies. Anne D. Martin (2009) found statistically significant profits using
themoving average rule on currencies of developing countries. However the rule does
notoutperform a risk free strategy after taking into account the Sharpe ratio.

Gerben deZwart et al. (2009) took a holistic approach by combining both fundamental
andtechnical information to generate trading signals for 21 emerging currency marketsand
found economically and statistically significant positive risk-adjusted returns.The results are
consistentwith the findings by Szakmary and Mathur (1997), where they also found a day of the
week effect, where trading profits are generally higher on Fridays and Mondays,consistent with
conjectures in previous studies where news concerning interventiontends to be revealed over
weekends.

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Silber (1994) took a slightly different approach inthat he linked markets where technical
analysis proved profitable to markets wherecentral bank intervention exists.In another study,
Sapp (2004) found that market volatility is higher beforeinterventions which in itself can be a
plausible explanation for interventions. It alsoimplies that the positive returns earned by
technical analyst during this period are infact an adequate compensation for risk bearing.

Pukthuanthong-Le, Levich and Thomas (2007) find that currencies for emerging markets tend
to have more profit opportunities than developed nations.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The principles of technical analysis are derived from hundreds of years of financial
markets data. Some aspects of technical analysis began to appear in Joseph de la Vega's
accounts of the Dutch markets in the 17th century. In Asia, technical analysis is said to be a
method developed by Homma Munehisa during early 18th century which evolved into the use
of candlestick techniques, and is today a technical analysis charting tool. In the 1920s and 1930s
Richard W. Schabacker published Stock Market Theory and Practice and Technical Market
Analysis.

In 1948 Robert D. Edwards and John Magee published Technical Analysis of Stock Trends which
is widely considered to be one of the seminal works of the discipline. It is exclusively concerned
with trend analysis and chart patterns and remains in use to the present.

WHAT IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?

A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as


past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic
value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future
activity.

In short, Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are
indications of future performance.
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DOWS THEORY
Charles Dow developed the Dow theory from his analysis of market price action in the late 19th
century. Until his death in 1902, Dow was part owner as well as editor of The Wall Street
Journal. Although he never wrote a book on the subject, he did write some editorials that
reflected his views on speculation and the ro
role of the rail and industrial averages.
averages

Even though Charles Dow is credited with developing the Dow theory, it was S.A. Nelson and
William Hamilton who later refined the theory into what it is today. Nelson wrote The ABC of
Stock Speculation and was the first to actually use the term "Dow theory." Hamilton further
refined the theory through a series of articles in The Wall Street Journal from 1902 to 1929.
Hamilton also wrote The Stock Market Barometer in 1922,
2, which sought to explain the theory
in detail.

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6 BASIC TENETS OF DOWS THEORY:


1. THE MARKET HAS THREE MOVEMENTS

The "main movement", primary movement or major trend may last from less
than a year to several years. It can be bullish or bearish.
The "medium swing", secondary reaction or intermediate reaction may last from
ten days to three months
The "short swing" or minor movement varies with opinion from hours to a
month or more.

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2. MARKET TRENDS HAVE THREE PHASES


Dow Theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases:

An accumulation phase (phase 1) is a period when investors "in the know" are
actively buying (selling) stock against the general opinion of the market. During
this phase, the stock price does not change much because these investors are in
the minority demanding (absorbing) stock that the market at large is supplying
(releasing).
A public participation (or absorption) phase: eventually, the market catches on
to these astute investors and a rapid price change occurs (phase 2). This occurs
when trend followers and other technically oriented investors participate. This
phase continues until rampant speculation occurs.
A distribution phase: At this point, the astute investors begin to distribute their
holdings to the market (phase 3).

3. THE STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTS ALL NEWS

Stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available. Once news is
released, stock prices will change to reflect this new information.

4. STOCK MARKET AVERAGES MUST CONFIRM EACH OTHER

In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but
factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market,
usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing)
companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the
railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are
rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship
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more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers,
he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to
market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the
performance of the averages diverges, it is a warning that change is in the air.

5. TRENDS ARE CONFIRMED BY VOLUME

Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low
volume, there could be many different explanations. But when price movements
are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed this represented the "true"
market view.

If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves
significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in
which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a
trend is developing.

6. TRENDS EXIST UNTIL DEFINITIVE SIGNALS PROVE THAT THEY HAVE ENDED

Dow believed that trends existed despite "market noise". Markets might temporarily move in
the direction opposite to the trend, but they will soon resume the prior move. Determining
whether a reversal is the start of a new trend or a temporary movement in the current trend is
not easy. Dow Theorists often disagree in this determination.

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TECHNICAL VERSUS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:


Technical analysts, or technicians, generate and interpret charts of the price and volume
histories of stocks to predict movement in stock prices according to perceived trends.

Whereas Fundamental analysis examines the earning potential of the company issuing a stock,
goes on the assumption that a share of ownership of a company has an intrinsic value that is a
function of the underlying value of the company as a whole. In simple words,
Earnings, expenses, assets and liabilities are all important characteristics to fundamental
analysts.

CHARACTERISTICS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:


1. Technical analysis employs models and trading rules based on price and volume

transformations, such as the relative strength index, moving averages, regressions,


inter-market and intra-market price correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles

2. Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals and is very

often used by active day traders, market makers and pit traders.

3. Technical analysis stands in contrast to the fundamental analysis approach to security

and stock analysis.

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3 BASIC PRINCIPLES:
1. MARKET ACTION DISCOUNTS EVERYTHING:
Based on the premise that all relevant information is already reflected by prices, technical
analysts believe it is important to understand what investors think of that information, known
and perceived.

2. PRICES MOVE IN TRENDS:


A market trend is a tendency of a financial market to move in a particular direction over time.
These trends are classified as secular for long time frames, primary for medium time frames,
and secondary for short time frames.

Technical analysts believe that prices trend directionally, i.e., up, down, or sideways (flat) or
some combination. The basic definition of a price trend was originally put forward by Dow
Theory which says the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages (industrial or
transportation) advances above a previous important high

3. HISTORY TENDS TO REPEAT ITSELF:


Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the investors that
preceded them. To a technician, the emotions in the market may be irrational, but they exist.
Because investor behavior repeats itself so often, technicians believe that recognizable (and
predictable) price patterns will develop on a chart. Recognition of these patterns can allow the
technician to select trades that have a higher probability of success.

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STRENGTH AND WEAKNESSES:

STRENGTHS:
1. FOCUS ON PRICE

If the objective is to predict the future price, then it makes sense to focus on price movements.
Price movements usually precede fundamental developments. By focusing on price action,
technicians are automatically focusing on the future. The market is thought of as a leading
indicator and generally leads the economy by 6 to 9 months. To keep pace with the market, it
makes sense to look directly at the price movements. More often than not, change is a subtle
beast. Even though the market is prone to sudden knee-jerk reactions, hints usually develop
before significant moves. A technician will refer to periods of accumulation as evidence of an
impending advance and periods of distribution as evidence of an impending decline.

2. SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND PRICE ACTION

Many technicians use the open, high, low and close when analyzing the price action of a
security. There is information to be gleaned from each bit of information. Separately, these will
not be able to tell much. However, taken together, the open, high, low and close reflect forces
of supply and demand.

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3. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE

Simple chart analysis can help identify support and resistance levels. These are usually marked
by periods of congestion (trading range) where the prices move within a confined range for an
extended period, telling us that the forces of supply and demand are deadlocked. When prices
move out of the trading range, it signals that either supply or demand has started to get the
upper hand. If prices move above the upper band of the trading range, then demand is winning.
If prices move below the lower band, then supply is winning.

3. PICTORIAL PRICE HISTORY

Even if you are a tried and true fundamental analyst, a price chart can offer plenty of valuable
information. The price chart is an easy to read historical account of a security's price movement
over a period of time. Charts are much easier to read than a table of numbers. On most stock
charts, volume bars are displayed at the bottom. With this historical picture, it is easy to
identify the following:

Reactions prior to and after important events.

Past and present volatility.

Historical volume or trading levels.

Relative strength of a stock versus the overall market.

4. ASSIST WITH ENTRY POINT

Technical analysis can help with timing a proper entry point. Some analysts use fundamental
analysis to decide what to buy and technical analysis to decide when to buy. It is no secret that
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timing can play an important role in performance. Technical analysis can help spot demand
(support) and supply (resistance) levels as well as breakouts. Simply waiting for a breakout
above resistance or buying near support levels can improve returns.

It is also important to know a stock's price history. If a stock you thought was great for the last 2
years has traded flat for those two years, it would appear that Wall Street has a different
opinion. If a stock has already advanced significantly, it may be prudent to wait for a pullback.
Or, if the stock is trending lower, it might pay to wait for buying interest and a trend reversal.

WEAKNESSES:

1. ANALYST BIAS
Just as with fundamental analysis, technical analysis is subjective and our personal biases can
be reflected in the analysis. It is important to be aware of these biases when analyzing a chart.
If the analyst is a perpetual bull, then a bullish bias will overshadow the analysis. On the other
hand, if the analyst is a disgruntled eternal bear, then the analysis will probably have a bearish
tilt.

2. OPEN TO INTERPRETATION
Furthering the bias argument is the fact that technical analysis is open to interpretation. Even
though there are standards, many times two technicians will look at the same chart and paint
two different scenarios or see different patterns. Both will be able to come up with logical
support and resistance levels as well as key breaks to justify their position. While this can be
frustrating, it should be pointed out that technical analysis is more like an art than a science,
somewhat like economics. Is the cup half-empty or half-full? It is in the eye of the beholder.

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3. TOO LATE
Technical analysis has been criticized for being too late. By the time the trend is
identified, a substantial portion of the move has already taken place. After such a large
move, the reward to risk ratio is not great. Lateness is a particular criticism of Dow
Theory.

4. ALWAYS ANOTHER LEVEL


Even after a new trend has been identified, there is always another "important" level
close at hand. Technicians have been accused of sitting on the fence and never taking an
unqualified stance. Even if they are bullish, there is always some indicator or some level
that will qualify their opinion.

5. TRADER'S REMORSE
Not all technical signals and patterns work. When you begin to study technical analysis,
you will come across an array of patterns and indicators with rules to match. For
instance: A sell signal is given when the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern is
broken. Even though this is a rule, it is not steadfast and can be subject to other factors
such as volume and momentum. In that same vein, what works for one particular stock
may not work for another. A 50-day moving average may work great to identify support
and resistance for IBM, but a 70-day moving average may work better for Yahoo. Even
though many principles of technical analysis are universal, each security will have its
own idiosyncrasies.

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CHARTING: TYPES AND PATTERNS


WHAT IS A CHART?
In technical analysis, charts are similar to the charts that you see in any business setting. A chart
is simply a graphical representation of a series of prices over a set time frame. For example, a
chart may show a stock's price movement over a one-year period, where each point on the
graph represents the closing price for each day the stock is traded, following chart shows the
same for SBI:

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TYPES OF CHARTS:
There are four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending on the
information that they are seeking and their individual skill levels. The chart types are: the line
chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart and the point and figure chart.

LINE CHART:

The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents only the closing prices
over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the closing prices over the time
frame. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for the individual
points such as the high, low and opening prices. However, the closing price is often considered
to be the most important price in stock data compared to the high and low for the day and this
is why it is the only value used in line charts. Following is the line chart showing closing prices of
Axis Bank Ltd for one month

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BAR CHART:

The bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces of information to
each data point. The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines that represent each data point.
This vertical line represents the high and low for the trading period, along with the closing
price. The close and open are represented on the vertical line by a horizontal dash. The opening
price on a bar chart is illustrated by the dash that is located on the left side of the vertical bar.
Conversely, the close is represented by the dash on the right. Generally, if the left dash (open)
is lower than the right dash (close) then the bar will be shaded black/blue, representing an up
period for the stock, which means it has gained value. A bar that is colored red signals that the
stock has gone down in value over that period. When this is the case, the dash on the right
(close) is lower than the dash on the left (open).

EXAMPLE:

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CANDLESTICK CHART:

The candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in the way that it is visually
constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has a thin vertical line showing the
period's trading range. The difference comes in the formation of a wide bar on the vertical line,
which illustrates the difference between the open and close. And, like bar charts, candlesticks
also rely heavily on the use of colors to explain what has happened during the trading period.

EXAMPLE: Color Indication: If Open is higher than Close: RED


If Open is lower than Close: GREEN

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POINT AND FIGURE CHART:

The point and figure chart is not well known or used by the average investor but it has had a
long history of use dating back to the first technical traders. This type of chart reflects price
movements and is not as concerned about time and volume in the formulation of the points.

When first looking at a point and figure chart, you will notice a series of Xs and Os. The Xs
represent upward price trends and the Os represent downward price trends. There are also
numbers and letters in the chart; these represent months, and give investors an idea of the
date. Each box on the chart represents the price scale, which adjusts depending on the price of
the stock: the higher the stock's price the more each box represents.

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PATTERNS OF CHART
HEAD AND SHOULDERS:

This is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. Head and
shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed, signals that the security is likely to
move against the previous trend.
There are two versions of the head and shoulders chart pattern. Head and shoulders top
(shown on the left) is a chart pattern that is formed at the high of an upward movement and
signals that the upward trend is about to end. Head and shoulders bottom, also known
as inverse head and shoulders (shown on the right) is the lesser known of the two, but is used
to signal a reversal in a downtrend.

There are four main parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. Also, each individual head and
shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. For example, in the head and shoulders top image
shown on the left side, the left shoulder is made up of a high followed by a low. In this pattern,
the neckline is a level of support or resistance.

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CUP AND HANDLE:

This price pattern forms what looks like a cup, which is preceded by an upward trend. The
handle follows the cup formation and is formed by a generally downward/sideways movement
in the security's price. Once the price movement pushes above the resistance lines formed in
the handle, the upward trend can continue.
There is a wide ranging time frame for this type of pattern, with the span ranging from several
months to more than a year.

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DOUBLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS:

This chart pattern is another well-known pattern that signals a trend reversal.
It is considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used.
These patterns are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the trend
is about to reverse.
The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance levels twice
and is unable to break through.

In the case of the double top pattern, the price movement has twice tried to move above a
certain price level. After two unsuccessful attempts at pushing the price higher, the trend
reverses and the price heads lower.
In the case of a double bottom (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower
twice, but has found support each time. After the second bounce off of the support, the
security enters a new trend and heads upward.

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TRIANGLES:

Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical analysis.
The three types of trianglesare:
symmetrical triangle
ascending
descending triangle

The symmetrical triangle in Figure 4 is a pattern in which two trend lines converge toward each
other. This pattern is neutral in an ascending triangle, the upper trend line is flat, while the
bottom trend line is upward sloping. This is generally thought of as a bullish pattern in which
chartists look for an upside breakout.
In a descending triangle, the lower trend line is flat and the upper trend line is descending. This
is generally seen as a bearish pattern where chartists look for a downside breakout.

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FLAG AND PENNANT:

These two short-term chart patterns are continuation patterns that are formed when there is a
SHARP PRICEMOVEMENT followed by a generally sideways price movement. This pattern is
then completed upon another sharp price movement in the same direction.

There is little difference between a pennant and a flag.


The main difference between these price movements can be seen in the middle section of the
chart pattern. In a pennant, the middle section is characterized by converging trend lines, much
like what is seen in a symmetrical triangle.
The middle section on the flag pattern, on the other hand, shows a channel pattern, with no
convergence between the trend lines. In both cases, the trend is expected to continue when
the price moves above the upper trend line.

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TRIPLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS:

Triple tops and triple bottoms are another type of reversal chart pattern in chart analysis.

These are not as prevalent in charts as head and shoulders and double tops and bottoms, but
they act in a similar fashion.

These two chart patterns are formed when the price movement tests a level of support or
resistance three times and is unable to break through; this signals a reversal of the prior trend.

Confusion can form with triple tops and bottoms during the formation of the pattern because
they can look similar to other chart patterns. After the first two support/resistance tests are
formed in the price movement, the pattern will look like a double top or bottom, which could
lead a chartist to enter a reversal position too soon.
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ROUNDING BOTTOM:

A rounding bottom, also referred to as a saucer bottom, is a long-term reversal pattern that
signals a shift from a downward trend to an upward trend. This pattern is traditionally thought
to last anywhere from several months to several years.

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IMPORTANT LEVELS
SUPPORT LEVEL:
The price, at which, historically, a stock had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level
at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock is often referred to as the Support Level.

RESISTANCE LEVEL:

The Price at which a stock or market can trade, but which it cannot exceed, for a certain period
of time is often referred to as Resistance Level.

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INDICATORS
MONEY FLOW INDEX
INTRODUCTION

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator that uses both price and volume to measure buying
and selling pressure. Created by Gene Quong and Avrum Soudack, MFI is also known as volumeweighted RSI. MFI starts with the typical price for each period. Money flow is positive when the
typical price rises (buying pressure) and negative when the typical price declines (selling
pressure). A ratio of positive and negative money flow is then plugged into an RSI formula to
create an oscillator that moves between zero and one hundred. As a momentum oscillator tied
to volume, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is best suited to identify reversals and price extremes
with a variety of signals.

CALCULATION

There are a several steps involved in the Money Flow Index calculation. The example below is
based on a 14-period Money Flow Index, the setting recommended by the creators.

1. Typical Price = (High + Low + Close)/3


2. Raw Money Flow = Typical Price x Volume

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NOTE

Decide on the time frame over which to calculate the index. This should be based on the
cycle that you are trading.

Calculate Positive Money Flow:

Add Money Flow for each period (in the time frame) that Typical Price moves up.

Calculate Negative Money Flow:

Add Money Flow for each period (in the time frame) that Typical Price moves down.

3. Money Flow Ratio = (14-period Positive Money Flow)/(14-period Negative


Money Flow)
4. Money Flow Index = 100 - 100/(1 + Money Flow Ratio)

First notice that Raw Money Flow is essentially dollar volume because the formula is volume
multiplied by the typical price. Raw Money Flow is positive when the typical price advances
from one period to the next and negative when the typical price declines. The Raw Money Flow
values are not used when the typical price is unchanged. The Money Flow Ratio in step 3 forms
the basis for the Money Flow Index (MFI). Positive and Negative Money Flow are summed for
the look-back period (14) and the Positive Money Flow sum is divided by the Negative Money
Flow sum to create the ratio. The RSI formula is then applied to create a volume-weighted
indicator. The table below shows a calculation example taken from an excel spreadsheet.

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EXPLAINATION:

The Money Flow Index is a volume/momentum technical indicator that measures the strength
of total Money flowing into and out of a stock, bond or commodity. Money Flow looks at both
price and volume activity. It is similar to RSI, which looks only at price.

Money Flow (MF) is a theory that correlates a relationship between price movement and the
actual amount of money flowing in or out of a stock, bond or commodity. The belief is as
money goes in or out of a security a measurable, predictive and usable pattern should exist. By
measuring the amount of net money movement, supply and demand trends can be qualified,
and better identified as attractive or overpriced. You are, in essence, measuring whether
investors are paying more or less than market price.

Money Flow analysis identifies divergences between trends in price and trends in money flow.
If the price goes up, money should be flowing into it. If the price goes down, money should be
flowing out. When price is trending higher, money flow should be trending higher. When price
is trending down, money flow should be trending down. Bearish divergence is when price is
trending higher and money flow is falling. Bullish divergence is when price is trending lower and
money flow is increasing. Price usually corrects in the direction of money flow.

Money Flow for a specific period is calculated by multiplying the average price by the volume.
Positive Money Flow is the sum of the positive Money Flow over a specific period. Negative
Money Flow is the sum of the negative Money Flow over a specific period. Money Flow is
considered positive when there is an increase in average price and negative when there is a

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decrease in average price. The Money Flow Ratio is the positive Money Flow divided by the
negative Money Flow. A Money Flow Index generally looks like the following

FORMULA: MONEY FLOW INDEX = 100 - (100/ 1 + MONEY RATIO.)

Money Flow is about comparing price movement with trading volume on up days versus down
days. The money flow indicator rises if there is more volume on up days than on down days,
and vice versa. Money Flow should not be the primary indicator for trading; it functions best as
a supporting study to help further confirm a trading opportunity.

When using the Money Flow Index (MFI) monitoring for divergence between the indicator and
the price action is the key. If the price trends higher and the MFI trends lower (or vice versa) a
price reversal may be imminent. The divergence between the indicator and the price usually
signals that a reversal of the price trend is expected. Money Flow Index above 80 usually shows
that the security is overbought and the price is likely to fall down. Monitor for tops to occur
when the MFI is above 80.

Money Flow Index below 20 usually shows that the security is oversold and a reverse trend may
be expected with the price setting up to rally. Monitor for market bottoms to occur when the
MFI is below 20. General patterns to observe when divergence begins to appear are to buy on
weakness when money is flowing into a stock, bond or commodity even though its price has
been falling. This could be an opportunity to buy before it is likely to rise. Equally, when
divergence appears, sell on strength when money is flowing out of a stock, bond or commodity
even though its price has been rising. This could be an opportunity to sell.

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MOVING AVERAGE:
The market indices do not rise or fall in straight line. The upward and downward are
interrupted by counter moves. The underlying trend can be studied by smoothening of the
data. To smooth the data moving average technique is used.

The word moving means that the body of data moves ahead to include the recent
observation. If it is five day moving average, on the sixth day the body of data moves to
include the sixth day observation eliminating the first days observation. Likewise it continues.
In the moving average calculation, closing price of the stock is used.

CALCULATING MOVING AVERAGE USING EXCEL:


To calculate moving average, all we need is the good old AVERAGE excel function.

Assuming our data is in the range B1:B12,Just enter this formula in the cell C3:
=AVERAGE(B1:B3)

And now copy the formula from C3 to the range C4 to C12

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STOCK PRICE AND STOCK PRICES MOVING AVERAGE:

Buy and sell signals are provided by the moving averages. Moving averages are used along
with the price of the scrip. The stock price may intersect the moving average at a particular
point. Downward penetration of the rising average indicates the possibility of a further fall.
Upward penetration of a falling average would indicate the possibility of the further rise and
gives the buy signal.

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RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX:


RSI is an oscillator used to identify the inherent technical strength and weakness of a
particular scrip or market. RSI can be calculated for scrip by adopting the following formula.

RSI = 100 -

100

1 + RS

RS =

Average Gain per Day


Average Loss per
Day

The RSI can be calculated for any number of days depending on the wish of the technical
analyst and the time frame of trading adopted in a particularstock market. RSI is calculated
for 5, 7, 9 and 14 days. If the period taken for calculation is more, the possibility of getting
wrong signals is reduced.

The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy there may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the
RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the script. If the RSI is rising in the overbought zone,
it would indicate the downfall of the price. If RSI falls in the overbought zone, it gives a clear
signal of sell. This condition occurs after a sharp rise in price during a period of heavy buying.

When the RSI is in the oversold region, it generates the buy signal. The term oversold is used
to describe a security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.

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RATE OF CHANGE:

The Rate-of-Change (ROC) indicator, which is also referred to as simply Momentum, is a


pure momentum oscillator that measures the percent change in price from one period to the
next. The ROC calculation compares the current price with the price "n" periods ago.

ROC helps to find out the overbought and oversold positions in scrip. Closing prices are used
to calculate the ROC. Daily closing prices are used for the daily ROC and weekly closing prices
for weekly ROC. In this study I have used weekly closing prices for calculation.

The Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is a very simple yet effective momentum oscillator that
measures the percent change in price from one period to the next. The (ROC) calculation
compares the current price with the price n periods ago.

ROC = ((Todays close Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) * 100

PAGE 35 OF 221

The main advantage of ROC is the identification of overbought and oversold region. The historic
high and low values of the ROC should be identified at first to locate the overbought and
oversold region. If the scrips ROC reaches the historic high values, the scrip is in the
overbought region. If the scrips ROC reaches the historic low value, the scrip is in the oversold
region.

PAGE 36 OF 221

UNDERSTANDING THE BASICS


BRIEF HISTORY OF JAPANESE CANDLESTICKS

In

the

18th

century

wealthy

Japanese

businessman, Munehisa Homma developed a


technical analysis method to analyze the price of rice
contracts. Today this technique is called candlestick
charting and is widely used when drawing stock
charts. Homma, from Sakata, Japan began trading at
the local rice exchange around 1750. He kept
records of the market psychology learning to boost
his profits by carefully monitoring prices and not to
rushing into trades.

Homma is regarded as the Grandfather of candlesticks because of his research on price pattern
recognition. Homma is credited with giving rise to a research technique which became the basis
for trading in Japan.

Steve Nison, Father of candlesticks and author of popular candlestick charting books such as
Strategies for Profiting with Japanese Candlestick Charts and Beyond Candlesticks: New
Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed is widely credited with bringing candlestick charting to
the Western world from Japan in 1989 when he published his first article on candlestick analysis
in Futures magazine.

PAGE 37 OF 221

BULLISH AND BEARISH SIGNALS

To simply understand markets, we need to start communicating through its sign language, i.e.
charts.

There are different types of charts. The most prevalent today is candlesticks, invented by
Japanese. We shall have our focus on Japanese candlesticks for its sheer ability to generate
perfect signal timings.

BASIC 2 CANDLESTICKS

(i)

BULLISH AND

(ii)

BEARISH

LETS DIVIDE THE CANDLE INTO 3 PARTS


i)

Middle cylindrical potion Body

ii)

Upper/lower wicks

Wicks

iii)

High to low

Length

PAGE 38 OF 221

BULLISH:

When the close is significantly higher than the open, it is termed as Bullish Candle. Control is
with the bulls.

BEARISH:

When the close is significantly lower than the open, it is termed as Bearish Candle. Control
is with the bears.

These two are basic candle patterns and lets call them Decision Candles (since control is
clearly with bulls or bears)

PAGE 39 OF 221

OTHER CANDLE TYPES

If you closely observe all the above ones, a common thing appears. Neither Bulls nor Bears
have control! and this is important to know. There are close to 95 such candle patterns;
believe it or not, the only important thing to note is neither party has control; and lets call
them Indecision Candles.

So we have two general types of candles (i) Decision and (ii) Indecision.
The next question that comes to our minds is when do we get a trade signal? What do you
say After a decision candle or an indecision candle.

PAGE 40 OF 221

HERE IS THE SIGNAL FOR US:

When we have a specific combination of decision and indecision candles, its a trade signal
for us. There are only six such signals: 3 to buy and 3 to sell. Are we simplifying now? Let us
see each signal now. By the end of this discussion, you shall be hav
having
ing answer to the
question WHAT? i.e. What action has to be taken? BUY or SELL. But do not hurry; it is only
25%, before you start trading.

THE MORNING STAR


If you have a combination of a bearish candle, minimum one indecision candle and a bullish
candle,, whose body is minimum 60% of the bearish body, then you have a BUY signal which is a
Morning Star. Please remember there has to be at least one indecision candle and there can be
up to 15 Indecision candles before the bullish candle appears.

This pattern
n has to be bought at the opening of next candle and out stop should go around 25
PIPs below the low of the pattern (the lower low).

PAGE 41 OF 221

THE EVENING STAR


If you have a combination of a bullish candle, minimum one indecision candle and a bearish
candle, whose body is minimum 60% of the bullish body, then you have SELL signal, which is an
Evening Star. Please remember, there has to be atleast one indecision candle and there can be
upto 15 before the bearish candle appears.

This pattern has to be sold at opening of next candle and our stop should go around. 30 PIPs
above the high of the pattern (the highest level).

PAGE 42 OF 221

THE TWEEZER BOTTOM


If you have a combination of atleast 2 indecision candles, back
back-to-back,
back, whose lower wicks are
min
n 60% of length; then it is a BUY signal, Tweezer Bottom. Please remember both candles
must appear back-to-back.

This pattern has to be bought at opening of next candle, the stop should go 25 PIPs below the
low of pattern.

THE TWEEZER TOP

PAGE 43 OF 221

If you have a combination of atleast 2 indecision candles, back-to-back, whose, upper wicks are
min 60% of their respective lengths; then its a SELL signal. Tweezer Top. Please remember,
both candles must appear back-to-back.

This pattern has to be sold at the opening of next candle, the stop should go 30 PIPs above the
high of pattern.

THE ENGULFING BULLISH


If you have a combination of a bearish candle, immediately followed by bullish candle, that
engulfs the bearish body; then it is a BUY signal, Engulfing Bullish.
This pattern has to be bought at opening of next candle, stop should go 25 PIP below low of
pattern.

THE ENGULFING BEARISH

PAGE 44 OF 221

If you have a combination of a bullish candle, immediately followed by a bearish candle, that
engulfs the bullish body; then it is a SELL signal; Engulfing Bearish.

This pattern has to be sold at opening of the next candle; stop should go 30 PIPs above high of
the pattern.

We have just answered the question WHAT (action to be taken). Please hold, we still need to
cater WHEN, WHY & WHERE before its OK to trade with confidence.

You can act on above patterns accordingly, but there are 2 exceptions where its not
recommended to act.

PAGE 45 OF 221

During Sideways Movement

In between Cycles/moves. i.e. if you missed the right place to act on a


pattern/signal, patiently wait for the other one; do not rush!

OTHER SIGNALS
HAMMER AND SHOOTING STAR
THE HAMMER

As its name implies, the inverted Hammer looks like an upside down version of the Hammer
Candlestick Chart Pattern which we learned about several lessons ago. Like the Hammer
Pattern, the Inverted Hammer is comprised of one candle and when found in a downtrend is
considered a potential reversal pattern.

The pattern is made up of a candle with a small lower body and a long upper wick which is at
least two times as large as the short lower body. The body of the candle should be at the low
end of the trading range and there should be little or no lower wick in the candle.

What this chart pattern is basically telling us is that although sellers ended up driving price
down to close near to where it opened, buyers had significant control of the market at some
point during the period which formed the long upper wick. This buying pressure during the
downtrend calls the trend into question which is why the candle is considered a potential
reversal pattern. Like the other one candle patterns we have learned about however, most

PAGE 46 OF 221

traders will wait for a higher open on the next trading period before taking an
anyy action based on
the pattern.

Most traders will also look at a longer wick as a sign of a greater potential reversal and like to
see an increase in volume on the day the Inverted Hammer Forms.

THE SHOOTING STAR

PAGE 47 OF 221

The Shooting Star looks exactly the same as the Inverted Hammer, but instead of being found in
a downtrend it is found in an uptrend and thus has different implications. Like the Inverted
Hammer it is made up of a candle with a small lower body, little or no lower wick, and a long
upper wick that is at least two times the size of the lower body.

The long upper wick of the chart pattern indicates that the buyers drove prices up at some
point during the period in which the candle was formed but encountered selling pressure which
drove prices back down for the period to close near to where they opened. As this occurred in
an uptrend the selling pressure is seen as a potential reversal sign. When encountering this
pattern traders will look for a lower open on the next period before considering the pattern
valid and potentially including it in their trading strategy.

As with the Inverted Hammer most traders will see a longer wick as a sign of a greater potential
reversal and like to see an increase in volume on the day the Shooting Star forms.

3 WHITE SOLDIERS AND 3 BLACK CROWS


THE 3 WHITE SOLDIERS
The three white soldiers pattern is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern and here is how it
forms:
o First the market has to be in a downtrend.
o Next you have 3 green bullish candlesticks that form-giving you the three white soldiers
chart pattern.
Usually when the three white soldiers pattern is formed, it signals the end of the downtrend.

PAGE 48 OF 221

THE 3 BLACK CROWS


The three black crows pattern is a bearish reversal candlestick chart pattern that consists of 3
bearish candlesticks.
Here is how the three black crows chart pattern forms:
o The market has got to be first in an uptrend.
o Then three bearish candlesticks from-the three black crows.
Once the three black crows are formed, usually it signals the end of the uptrend.

THE GAME SUPPORTS & RESISTANCES

PAGE 49 OF 221

Trading is a game and as any other game, there are rules here as well. Lets understand the rules
first.

BULLS

BEARS

They are programmed to drag prices They are programmed to drag prices
higher.

lower.

When a new high is made, Bulls score a When a new low is made, Bears score a
pointand they take a break (pullback)for a point and they take a break (pullback) for a
while.

while.

(When bulls break) Past resistance, it tends (When bears break) Past support tends to
toprovide future support.

provide future resistance.

Please find below, a graphical representation of the rules:

Now, since we are clear with rules of the game, lets go further. While the bulls and bears are
playing this game, two things are formed; supports (when bulls are active) and Resistance
(when bears are active). Lets understand both of them.

PAGE 50 OF 221

SUPPORT
To understand support, lets first understand what is a low.
A point which is lower than the lows of 2 candles to the right and 2 candles to the left, is
termed as THE LOW.
Having identified a low, lets go to find support. Support is a low which is
i.

Higher than the previous low and

ii.

A new high is in place.

When market is in an uptrend, as shown below, it forms supports and moves ahead
(higher). Hence in an uptrend, supports are more significant.
The view should be like an up staircase.

RESISTANCE
To understand resistance, lets first understand what is a high.
A point which is higher than the highs of 2 candles to the right and 2 candles to the left, is
termed as THE HIGH.

Having identified a HIGH, lets find resistance.


Resistance is a high which is
i)

Lower than the previous high and

PAGE 51 OF 221

ii)

A new low is in place.

When market is in a downtrend, as shown above, it forms resistance and moves ahead
(lower). Hence in a downtrend, resistances are more significant.
The view should be like that of a down staircase.

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

PAGE 52 OF 221

UPTREND
When the market makes higher highs and higher lows it is said to be an uptrend.

Lets now look into a typical uptrend cycle.


There are typically 3 swings.
First upswing: 1-2
Intermediary downswing: 2-3
Second upswing: 3-4
As shown above, the first swing consists of AB boundary, Intermediary Downswing consists of
BC Boundary and second swing forms CD Boundary.
In the uptrend, ABCD repeat themselves.
o After ABCD completes, C becomes A and D becomes B.
o ABCD repeat themselves till uptrend is in place.

PAGE 53 OF 221

TREND LINES:
There are three types of trend lines.

I.

INNER TREND LINE


This line makes us aware of the immediate market conditions.

RULES:

II.

Identify the most recent ABCD

Draw a straight line across the lows of A and C

Such that no candle is cut between the point A and point D

OUTER LINE
It gives the Intermediary market condition.

RULES:

III.

Identify the first up ABCD cycle.

Draw a straight line across all possible As and Cs

Such that no candle is cut between the first A and last D

LONG TERM LINE


It gives longer term Market condition.

RULES:

Compress the chart, i.e. go back in time.

Follow the same rules as outer line.

CONCLUSION: Buy @ C and Sell @ D

PAGE 54 OF 221

RULES TO TRADE AN UPTREND:


1. Plot A, B, C, Ds- Supports and Resistances.
2. Plot Trend Lines.
3. Find Recent AB Boundary
4. Spread Fibonacci across AB Boundary
5. Wait for C to appear at:
i.

Trend line is passing through, OR

ii.

Past resistance becoming future support, OR

iii.

Fibonacci Number line Passing through, AND

iv.

BULLISH SIGNAL appears.

6. Buy at Opening of next candle after looking into equity


management, Place stop loss below A.

PAGE 55 OF 221

DOWNTREND
When the market makes lower highs and lower lows it is said to be a downtrend.

There are typically 3 swings.


First downswing: 2-3
Intermediary upswing: 3-4
Second downswing: 4-5
As shown above, the 1st downswing consists of AB boundary Intermediary upswing brings into
formation the BC boundary and 2nd downswing forms the CD boundary.
In a downtrend, ABCDs repeat themselves. Kindly look into a typical trend cycle below:
. After one ABCD completes, C becomes A and D becomes B.
. ABCD repeat themselves till downtrend is in place.

PAGE 56 OF 221

TREND LINES:
There are typically 3 types of trend lines as were in an uptrend:

I.

INNER TREND LINE


This line makes us aware of the immediate market conditions.

To draw inner line kindly follow the rules below:


I.

Identify the recent down ABCD

II.

Draw a straight line across the highs of A & C.

III.

Such that no candle is cut between A & D. Kindly refer to above figure.

II.

OUTER LINE
It gives the Intermediary market condition.

RULES:

III.

Identify the first up ABCD cycle.

Draw a straight line across all possible As and Cs

Such that no candle is cut between the first A and last D

LONG TERM LINE


It gives longer term Market condition.

RULES:

Compress the chart, i.e. go back in time.

Follow the same rules as outer line.

PAGE 57 OF 221

CONCLUSION: Sell @ C and Buy @ D

RULES TO TRADE A DOWNTREND:


I.

Plot A, B, C, Ds Supports & Resistances.

II.

Plot trend lines (at least inner & outer)

III.

Find the recent down A B boundary

IV.

Spread Fibonacci across AB boundary. This shall be discussed in the next


session.

V.

Wait for C to appear at


1)

Trend Line passing through, or

2)

Past support becoming future resistance, or

3)

Fibonacci number line passing through, and

4)

Bearish Signal appears (Evening Star, Tweezer Top or Engulfing


Bearis

VI.

Sell the opening of next candle after looking into equity management
(this shall be discussed in the coming sessions), place top above part A.

PAGE 58 OF 221

USD/INR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Indian Rupee was pegged to the British Sterling from 1926 to 1966 at INR 13.33 to 1 Pound.
The peg was changed to the US Dollar in 1966 at Rs 7.5 to 1 USD.

61.9580 (DEC 17) 62.2450 (19 FEB 2014).

And the chart shows the trend of INR against USD since 1990s till 2014.

PAGE 59 OF 221

PAGE 60 OF 221

CALCULATION OF MOVING AVG FOR USD/INR

Date
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
3/31/2013
4/1/2013

Close
54.0886
54.8147
55.031
55.031
55.0276
54.8367
54.7724
54.5955
54.3718
54.214
54.214
54.3302
54.2029
54.2131
54.1965
54.0234
53.907
53.907
54.091
54.2245
54.3709
54.2794
54.319
54.219
54.219
54.1574
54.2331
54.3481
54.3235
54.4017
54.355
54.355

12 Days
Moving Avg.

24 Days
Moving Avg.

54.610625
54.62015
54.57001667
54.500475
54.41650833
54.323125
54.24565
54.18886667
54.15795
54.157875
54.163325
54.172075
54.16280833
54.16415
54.15950833
54.16255833
54.18961667
54.224325
54.26555
54.28755
54.298425

54.38671667
54.39215
54.3647625
54.33151667
54.3030625
54.273725
54.2556
54.23820833
54.2281875

PAGE 61 OF 221

4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013

54.4318
54.3201
54.3874
54.6846
54.7406
54.567
54.567
54.6022
54.3947
54.3052
54.2266
54.3476
54.378
54.378
54.4418
54.1282
53.8088
53.8016
53.681
53.565
53.565
53.8367
54.0697
54.0494
53.9299
54.0368
54.078
54.078
54.0423
53.6469
53.2942
53.4149
53.5262
53.362
53.362
53.7084
53.8485
53.7594
53.9723
54.4744

54.3035
54.30689167
54.31259167
54.35139167
54.39485833
54.42899167
54.45681667
54.47799167
54.483925
54.47588333
54.46518333
54.46456667
54.46008333
54.46490833
54.46944167
54.423075
54.345425
54.28164167
54.20780833
54.121375
54.05223333
54.01319167
54.00011667
53.97526667
53.937925
53.90949167
53.879175
53.87499167
53.89445
53.88155833
53.849325
53.83681667
53.83358333
53.794025
53.73505
53.70663333
53.69985
53.67673333
53.667925
53.70095833

PAGE 62 OF 221

54.2306875
54.23510833
54.24233333
54.2571
54.27950417
54.29425
54.3096875
54.33380417
54.354125
54.37071667
54.37636667
54.38149583
54.38179167
54.3859
54.39101667
54.38723333
54.37014167
54.35531667
54.3323125
54.29968333
54.26807917
54.2445375
54.23265
54.21991667
54.19900417
54.1872
54.17430833
54.14903333
54.1199375
54.0816
54.02856667
53.97909583
53.94290833
53.90360833
53.86758333
53.84095
53.8188875
53.7931125
53.77355
53.787975

5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013

54.509
54.509
54.6607
54.5447
54.6132
54.5846
54.7645
54.892
54.892
54.9119
55.0663
55.4488
55.7182
55.6269
55.735
55.735
55.6047
55.8116
56.182
56.264
56.5465
56.627
56.627
56.5493
56.4517
56.5995
56.8305
56.9546
57.258
57.258
57.7717
58.3346
57.9382
58.0236
57.5799
57.559
57.559
57.7332
58.481
58.8051

53.73985
53.81169167
53.92556667
54.01971667
54.1103
54.21218333
54.32905833
54.42769167
54.51465
54.61069167
54.70185833
54.78305833
54.883825
54.97698333
55.06650833
55.1657
55.248325
55.350575
55.4687
55.58303333
55.72090833
55.86383333
55.99389167
56.0856
56.146725
56.227775
56.31906667
56.4207
56.558475
56.67900833
56.81148333
56.98403333
57.10000833
57.21639167
57.2958
57.37994167
57.47221667
57.56669167
57.70423333
57.85844167

PAGE 63 OF 221

53.81715
53.846625
53.88744583
53.92826667
53.97194167
54.00310417
54.03205417
54.0671625
54.10725
54.1437125
54.18489167
54.24200833
54.3118375
54.3943375
54.4960375
54.59270833
54.6793125
54.78137917
54.89887917
55.0053625
55.11777917
55.2372625
55.347875
55.43432917
55.515275
55.60237917
55.6927875
55.7932
55.9034
56.01479167
56.14009167
56.28353333
56.41045833
56.5401125
56.64484583
56.73277083
56.80947083
56.89723333
57.01165
57.13957083

6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013

59.7909
59.6283
59.659
59.659
59.7964
59.7
60.1731
60.3507
59.6964
59.597
59.597
59.3734
59.4779
60.1035
60.1008
60.464
61.034
61.034
60.8346
60.1043
59.9833
59.7397
59.8839
59.896
59.896
59.7849
59.1504
59.3056
59.6141
59.6554
59.507
59.507
59.4783
59.5731
59.37
59.176
59.0478
59.105
59.105
59.3726

58.06951667
58.26704167
58.42431667
58.53468333
58.68953333
58.82923333
59.04533333
59.277975
59.45609167
59.61140833
59.70440833
59.75176667
59.72568333
59.76528333
59.8021
59.86918333
59.97231667
60.08348333
60.13860833
60.118075
60.14198333
60.153875
60.17778333
60.22133333
60.256175
60.229625
60.150425
60.05389167
59.93556667
59.82068333
59.71005
59.660275
59.61819167
59.60430833
59.56148333
59.50148333
59.4308
59.37414167
59.37035833
59.37594167

PAGE 64 OF 221

57.31399583
57.473025
57.6179
57.75935833
57.89477083
58.0228125
58.17056667
58.32895833
58.46415417
58.58905
58.70432083
58.80510417
58.8976
59.0161625
59.11320833
59.20193333
59.330925
59.45635833
59.59197083
59.698025
59.7990375
59.88264167
59.94109583
59.98655
59.99092917
59.99745417
59.9762625
59.9615375
59.95394167
59.95208333
59.92432917
59.889175
59.8800875
59.87909167
59.86963333
59.86140833
59.8434875
59.80188333
59.76039167
59.71491667

7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013

60.3021
61.0818
60.7717
60.9808
61.129
61.129
61.1518
61.5444
61.4922
61.0812
60.6389
60.512
60.512
60.9402
61.4251
61.4451
61.3759
61.9758
62.654
62.654
63.1695
63.8104
64.2165
65.0252
64.4237
64.305
64.305
64.4248
66.1438
67.7732
67.4206
66.8917
66.517
66.517
66.3979
67.5958
67.361
66.2259
65.3987
64.569

59.433275
59.55214167
59.65753333
59.78035
59.91790833
60.04756667
60.19605
60.39341667
60.59711667
60.7618
60.889625
60.984575
61.00206667
60.99026667
61.04471667
61.08340833
61.10398333
61.17455
61.29973333
61.3922
61.531975
61.75940833
62.05754167
62.43364167
62.75961667
63.04001667
63.28000833
63.52831667
63.92564167
64.40875833
64.805975
65.15911667
65.438075
65.663625
65.84540833
66.059625
66.3044
66.464475
66.55561667
66.56763333

PAGE 65 OF 221

59.68442083
59.6864125
59.68379167
59.7203125
59.76805
59.8259375
59.87876667
59.94745
60.01395833
60.06797083
60.12999167
60.18025833
60.21767083
60.27120417
60.351125
60.43187917
60.51094583
60.61105833
60.74789167
60.89280833
61.06454583
61.26060417
61.47358333
61.70910833
61.88084167
62.01514167
62.1623625
62.3058625
62.5148125
62.79165417
63.05285417
63.27565833
63.485025
63.71151667
63.951475
64.24663333
64.53200833
64.75224583
64.9178125
65.047975

9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013

64.569
64.5546
63.9281
63.4803
63.352
63.4603
63.153
63.153
62.7488
63.0729
62.8811
61.4175
61.9308
62.274
62.274
62.3597
62.5169
62.3696
61.8198
62.0309
62.702
62.702
62.5884
62.2802
62.2617
61.6524
61.203
61.011
61.011
61.3311
61.4497
61.5784
61.2797
60.6802
60.597
60.597
60.8161
61.138
61.2657
60.8464

66.4364
66.16818333
65.87714167
65.59285833
65.32910833
65.07438333
64.803975
64.43374167
64.04939167
63.78664167
63.57684167
63.31421667
63.09436667
62.90431667
62.766475
62.67309167
62.6035
62.51260833
62.40150833
62.308
62.3041
62.27319167
62.2488
62.32069167
62.34826667
62.29646667
62.20721667
62.094825
61.96933333
61.88279167
61.85195
61.81424167
61.69571667
61.52723333
61.36128333
61.22101667
61.10055
61.05768333
61.06290833
61.04919167

PAGE 66 OF 221

65.18102083
65.28847083
65.34155833
65.3759875
65.38359167
65.36900417
65.32469167
65.24668333
65.17689583
65.12555833
65.06622917
64.940925
64.76538333
64.53625
64.32180833
64.132975
63.96630417
63.79349583
63.60274167
63.37087083
63.17674583
63.02991667
62.91282083
62.81745417
62.72131667
62.60039167
62.48684583
62.38395833
62.28641667
62.1977
62.12672917
62.06112083
61.99990833
61.9002125
61.80504167
61.77085417
61.72440833
61.677075
61.6350625
61.57200833

10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013

60.7448
60.757
60.757
61.1043
61.1525
61.0848
61.1239
61.13
61.085
61.085
61.1479
61.1642
60.9953
61.1716
61.7939
61.868
61.868
61.8485
61.7244
62.0691
62.406
62.7558
63.146
63.146
63.3445
63.7101
63.563
63.1175
62.9419
62.5742
62.574
62.4142
62.0441
62.2422
62.6737
62.6836
62.2832
62.283
62.2582
62.1461

61.02700833
60.97916667
60.92144167
60.88193333
60.87133333
60.90505
60.94895833
60.993375
61.01578333
61.01136667
61.00155
61.02803333
61.04890833
61.08345833
61.16986667
61.23350833
61.29313333
61.356775
61.40681667
61.485075
61.59515833
61.73439167
61.9009
62.06605
62.26181667
62.47335833
62.62078333
62.72490833
62.8144
62.874875
62.945675
62.97443333
62.944275
62.901475
62.86211667
62.82358333
62.73514167
62.61621667
62.50748333
62.42653333

PAGE 67 OF 221

61.49817083
61.43097917
61.38669583
61.3480875
61.283525
61.21614167
61.15512083
61.10719583
61.05816667
61.034525
61.03222917
61.0386125
61.03795833
61.0313125
61.04565417
61.05772083
61.08223333
61.1309125
61.1778875
61.239225
61.30547083
61.37287917
61.451225
61.54704167
61.6553625
61.77840833
61.895325
61.97920833
62.05376667
62.115825
62.17624583
62.22975417
62.26971667
62.31793333
62.38150833
62.44481667
62.49847917
62.5447875
62.56413333
62.57572083

11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014

62.1874
62.2094
62.1598
62.156
62.156
62.0489
62.1332
62.0098
61.4648
61.2622
60.896
60.896
60.7952
60.8489
61.1038
61.6358
61.9697
62.025
62.025
61.7928
61.5728
61.6118
62.0121
62.0045
61.87
61.87
61.7324
61.6022
61.578
61.7101
61.7633
61.753
61.753
61.7744
61.6312
61.587
61.8503
62.1569
62.115
62.115

62.36365833
62.33325833
62.29874167
62.277225
62.28655
62.27044167
62.2254
62.16925
62.10105
62.01598333
61.90246667
61.79829167
61.682275
61.5689
61.4809
61.43755
61.422025
61.42003333
61.41101667
61.39293333
61.40193333
61.43106667
61.524075
61.61645
61.70601667
61.79110833
61.84349167
61.84069167
61.80805
61.78180833
61.76
61.75668333
61.7717
61.78525
61.75350833
61.71871667
61.717075
61.74098333
61.77286667
61.8156

PAGE 68 OF 221

62.58902917
62.60406667
62.62220833
62.62582917
62.6154125
62.58595833
62.54375833
62.49641667
62.41809583
62.3161
62.204975
62.1124125
62.02296667
61.95107917
61.88982083
61.8573875
61.8542875
61.8452375
61.81820833
61.78109167
61.75149167
61.723525
61.71327083
61.70737083
61.69414583
61.68000417
61.66219583
61.63912083
61.6150375
61.60092083
61.58550833
61.57480833
61.58681667
61.60815833
61.63879167
61.66758333
61.71154583
61.76604583
61.80817917
61.82814583

1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014

62.1833
62.1409
61.9514
61.8571
61.502
61.154
61.154
61.1427
61.1853
61.2565
61.2253
61.1986
61.329
61.329
61.3212
61.4709
61.6566
61.7196
62.2043
62.558
62.558
62.8832
62.8105
62.4372
62.6118
62.4638
62.382
62.382
62.555
62.4971
62.2764
62.1718
62.0184
61.845
61.845
62.0598
62.0588
61.8099
61.9246
61.8395

61.86604167
61.90194167
61.91761667
61.92629167
61.905375
61.853675
61.81390833
61.77688333
61.72146667
61.64643333
61.57229167
61.495925
61.42473333
61.357075
61.30455833
61.272375
61.28525833
61.33239167
61.41991667
61.53785833
61.65225
61.78780833
61.91990833
62.023125
62.130025
62.22459167
62.31299167
62.38891667
62.46378333
62.528575
62.53458333
62.5024
62.45743333
62.37091667
62.29045833
62.25900833
62.212925
62.15843333
62.12031667
62.07510833

PAGE 69 OF 221

61.83704583
61.841875
61.83880833
61.8414875
61.8385375
61.8194625
61.78370833
61.7478
61.71927083
61.69370833
61.67257917
61.6557625
61.6453875
61.62950833
61.6110875
61.59933333
61.59531667
61.59303333
61.6169125
61.65737083
61.68685833
61.71712083
61.7461
61.759525
61.77737917
61.79083333
61.808775
61.83064583
61.87452083
61.93048333
61.97725
62.02012917
62.05484167
62.0793625
62.10518333
62.14106667
62.171475
62.1915125
62.21665417
62.2320125

2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014

61.62
61.62
61.661
61.8343
62.0191
62.0866
61.8692
61.752
61.752
61.812
61.7032
61.7926
61.9061

61.99719167
61.9241
61.87281667
61.84469167
61.84475
61.86488333
61.8669
61.84125
61.81568333
61.81585833
61.79740833
61.7935
61.81734167

PAGE 70 OF 221

62.2304875
62.2263375
62.2037
62.17354583
62.15109167
62.1179
62.07867917
62.05012917
62.01430417
61.98714583
61.9588625
61.93430417
61.90726667

PRICE

Short term Moving Avg.-USD/INR


80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Close
12 Days Moving Avg.

DAYS

Long term Moving Avg.-USD/INR


80
70
60
PRICE

50
40
30

Close

20

24 Days Moving Avg.

10
0

DAYS

PAGE 71 OF 221

The above chart shows the MACD of the closing price of USD/INR along with its Japanese
Candlestick Chart in the year starting from 1/3/2013 to 28/2/2014.
X-axis shows the DAYS and Y-axis
axis indicates the CLOSING PRICE of the currency.
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
1) The C formation will take place around the price INR 62.375, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
2) So, it is advisable for the investor to sell his/her Dollars when it reaches the above rate
i.e. 62.375 after the appearance of Bearish signal.
3) The D formation will take place around the price INR 58.765, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
4) So, it is advisable to buy Dollars when it reaches to that point i.e. 58.765.
5) Upward penetration of a falling average indicates further rise and gives buy
signal so the chart shows buy signal in the mid of October at point B
B and
downward penetration of rising average indicates the possibility of further fall
so it shows sell signal at the mid of November at the Point C as per our
technical analysis.
6) In the same way, buy Dollars in the mid of March at B, so that when we reach
r
the point
C at 62.375 we can square off the investment and earn profits.

PAGE 72 OF 221

CALCULATION OF RSI FOR USD/INR


RSI = 100 -

100
1+RS

RS =

Average Gain per Day


Average Loss per Day

Date

Close

Change

Gain

Loss

Avg. Gain Avg. Loss

3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013

54.0886
54.8147
55.031
55.031
55.0276
54.8367
54.7724
54.5955
54.3718
54.214
54.214
54.3302
54.2029
54.2131
54.1965
54.0234
53.907
53.907
54.091
54.2245
54.3709
54.2794
54.319
54.219
54.219
54.1574
54.2331

0.7261
0.2163
0
-0.0034
-0.1909
-0.0643
-0.1769
-0.2237
-0.1578
0
0.1162
-0.1273
0.0102
-0.0166
-0.1731
-0.1164
0
0.184
0.1335
0.1464
-0.0915
0.0396
-0.1
0
-0.0616
0.0757

0.7261
0.2163
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1162
0
0.0102
0
0
0
0
0.184
0.1335
0.1464
0
0.0396
0
0
0
0.0757

0
0
0
0.0034
0.1909
0.0643
0.1769
0.2237
0.1578
0
0
0.1273
0
0.0166
0.1731
0.1164
0
0
0
0
0.0915
0
0.1
0
0.0616
0

0.13462857
0.0309
0
0
0.0166
0.0166
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.01805714
0.02774286
0.04681429
0.06627143
0.06627143
0.07192857
0.07192857
0.07192857
0.04564286
0.03738571

PAGE 73 OF 221

0.06221429
0.09417143
0.11671429
0.11671429
0.11622857
0.10714286
0.09795714
0.07505714
0.06782857
0.06191429
0.06191429
0.06191429
0.04372857
0.04372857
0.05442857
0.0297
0.02735714
0.02735714
0.03615714
0.03615714

RS

7 Day RSI

2.163949
0.328125
0
0
0.142822
0.154933
0.184337
0.240579
0.266217
0.291647
0.291647
0.448085
1.070565
1.515518
1.217585
2.421837
2.629243
2.629243
1.262347
1.033979

68.3939328
24.7058824
0
0
12.4973112
13.4149157
15.5645856
19.3924517
21.0246174
22.5794927
22.5794927
30.943276
51.7040076
60.2467532
54.905906
70.7759348
72.4460432
72.4460432
55.7981139
50.8352758

3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013

54.3481
54.3235
54.4017
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54.355
54.4318
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19.6610169

5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013

53.7084
53.8485
53.7594
53.9723
54.4744
54.509
54.509
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54.5447
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54.5846
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63.5610497

6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013

57.559
57.559
57.7332
58.481
58.8051
59.7909
59.6283
59.659
59.659
59.7964
59.7
60.1731
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7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013

59.176
59.0478
59.105
59.105
59.3726
60.3021
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61.129
61.129
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2.434669

19.1609179
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70.8851112

9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013

67.5958
67.361
66.2259
65.3987
64.569
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63.4803
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10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
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10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
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11/5/2013
11/6/2013
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11/10/2013
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11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
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11/18/2013
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11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013

60.597
60.8161
61.138
61.2657
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PAGE 79 OF 221

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91.7733907
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11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014

62.6836
62.2832
62.283
62.2582
62.1461
62.1874
62.2094
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62.156
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1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014

61.587
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0.12192857
0.0714
0.0714
0.04965714
0.04965714
0.04965714
0.02471429
0.02471429
0.02471429
0.02471429

PAGE 81 OF 221

0.02824286
0.02824286
0.02824286
0.03275714
0.03275714
0.03275714
0.01835714
0.03911429
0.05258571
0.10331429
0.14704286
0.14704286
0.14865714
0.1426
0.11552857
0.10651429
0.0596
0.00988571
0.00988571
0.00938571
0.00938571
0.00938571
0.00492857
0.00111429
0.00111429
0.00111429
0
0.01038571
0.06371429
0.06371429
0.08485714
0.09654286
0.09654286
0.09654286
0.09442857
0.07262857
0.08757143
0.08834286
0.10142857
0.10142857

1.045524
1.709155
2.990895
2.578718
2.578718
2.783253
4.966537
2.330898
1.018473
0.094441
0.066356
0.066356
0
0.042677
0.14072
0.152629
0.272771
3.528902
3.528902
3.716895
5.347032
7.089802
15.32754
129.9359
158.5641
158.5641
0
19.42641
2.750224
3.000448
1.436869
0.739568
0.739568
0.514353
0.52587
0.683714
0.282219
0.279754
0.243662
0.243662

51.1127596
63.0881255
74.9429658
72.0570314
72.0570314
73.5677233
83.2398591
69.9780702
50.4576043
8.62918509
6.22266764
6.22266764
0
4.09300538
12.3360434
13.2417966
21.4312618
77.9195916
77.9195916
78.7996128
84.2446043
87.6387582
93.8753772
99.2362675
99.3732926
99.3732926
100
95.1043771
73.3349277
75.0028024
58.9637306
42.5144607
42.5144607
33.965214
34.4636129
40.6074766
22.0101781
21.8599949
19.592299
19.592299

2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014

62.0598
62.0588
61.8099
61.9246
61.8395
61.62
61.62
61.661
61.8343
62.0191
62.0866
61.8692
61.752
61.752
61.812
61.7032
61.7926
61.9061

0.2148
-0.001
-0.2489
0.1147
-0.0851
-0.2195
0
0.041
0.1733
0.1848
0.0675
-0.2174
-0.1172
0
0.06
-0.1088
0.0894
0.1135

0.2148
0
0
0.1147
0
0
0
0.041
0.1733
0.1848
0.0675
0
0
0
0.06
0
0.0894
0.1135

0
0.001
0.2489
0
0.0851
0.2195
0
0
0
0
0
0.2174
0.1172
0
0
0.1088
0
0

0.03068571
0.03068571
0.03068571
0.04707143
0.04707143
0.04707143
0.04707143
0.02224286
0.047
0.0734
0.06665714
0.06665714
0.06665714
0.06665714
0.06937143
0.04461429
0.03098571
0.03755714

0.10142857
0.0933
0.09732857
0.08238571
0.07262857
0.07921429
0.07921429
0.07921429
0.07907143
0.04351429
0.04351429
0.06241429
0.0478
0.0478
0.0478
0.06334286
0.06334286
0.06334286

0.302535
0.328893
0.31528
0.571354
0.648112
0.594229
0.594229
0.280794
0.594399
1.686802
1.531845
1.067979
1.394501
1.394501
1.451285
0.70433
0.489175
0.592918

23.2266436
24.7493951
23.970539
36.3606268
39.3245017
37.2737557
37.2737557
21.9234019
37.2804533
62.7810362
60.503112
51.6436082
58.2376435
58.2376435
59.2050719
41.325923
32.8487051
37.2221436

7 Day USD/INR
120
100

RSI

80
60
40

7 Day RSI

20
0

DAYS

PAGE 82 OF 221

In the above chart RSI is calculated for 7 days for USD/INR.


The broad rule, if RSI crosses 70 there may be downturn & time to sell. If RSI falls
below 30 it is time to buy the share.

Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:

1) Varying the time period of the Relative Strength Index can increase or decrease the number of buy
and sell signals. So, lesser the time period of RSI, higher the appearance of signals.

2) The chart shows Overbought Regions when RSI crosses mark of 70:
12th November, 2013 and 27th January, 2014. It gives an indication to sell.

3) The chart shows Oversold Regions when RSI crosses mark of 30:
9th December, 2013 and 10th March, 2014. It gives an indication to buy.

4) Since it is nearing the mark of 30, it is highly predicted that it will reach the Oversold
Region soon. And thus, gives an indication to buy dollars currently and hold them till
point C is reached.

PAGE 83 OF 221

CALCULATION OF ROC FOR USD/INR


ROC= RATE OF CHANGE
ROC = ((Todays close Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) * 100

DATE

CLOSE
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013

ROC
54.0886
54.8147
55.031
55.031
55.0276
54.8367
54.7724
54.5955
54.3718
54.214
54.214
54.3302
54.2029
54.2131
54.1965
54.0234
53.907
53.907
54.091
54.2245
54.3709
54.2794
54.319
54.219
54.219
54.1574
54.2331
54.3481
54.3235

PAGE 84 OF 221

1.264222
-0.39989
-1.19787
-1.48462
-1.47853
-0.92365
-1.03976
-0.70042
-0.32241
-0.35157
-0.56627
-0.77894
-0.20645
0.021028
0.321792
0.473869
0.764279
0.578775
0.236638
-0.12374
-0.25344
0.126567
0.008284

3/30/2013
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013

54.4017
54.355
54.355
54.4318
54.3201
54.3874
54.6846
54.7406
54.567
54.567
54.6022
54.3947
54.3052
54.2266
54.3476
54.378
54.378
54.4418
54.1282
53.8088
53.8016
53.681
53.565
53.565
53.8367
54.0697
54.0494
53.9299
54.0368
54.078
54.078
54.0423
53.6469
53.2942
53.4149
53.5262
53.362
53.362
53.7084
53.8485
PAGE 85 OF 221

0.336967
0.250835
0.364862
0.366381
-0.05152
0.117629
0.520021
0.70941
0.390029
0.248384
0.519329
0.013422
-0.6938
-0.93897
-0.40207
-0.34636
-0.41061
0.086589
-0.32594
-0.77047
-1.00464
-1.28177
-1.49509
-1.61053
-0.53854
0.484865
0.460581
0.463665
0.880799
0.957715
0.448207
-0.05068
-0.74469
-1.17875
-1.15088
-1.02038
-1.32401
-1.25883
0.114638
1.040076

5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013

53.7594
53.9723
54.4744
54.509
54.509
54.6607
54.5447
54.6132
54.5846
54.7645
54.892
54.892
54.9119
55.0663
55.4488
55.7182
55.6269
55.735
55.735
55.6047
55.8116
56.182
56.264
56.5465
56.627
56.627
56.5493
56.4517
56.5995
56.8305
56.9546
57.258
57.258
57.7717
58.3346
57.9382
58.0236
57.5799
57.559
57.559
PAGE 86 OF 221

0.644951
0.833424
2.08463
2.14947
1.490642
1.508306
1.460768
1.187461
0.202297
0.46873
0.702636
0.423156
0.673209
0.829653
1.58323
1.741457
1.338811
1.535743
1.498946
0.97773
0.654297
0.832403
1.145309
1.455997
1.600431
1.838514
1.321768
0.480047
0.596296
0.502242
0.578523
1.114309
1.253243
2.338282
3.065575
1.949129
1.876934
0.562192
0.525691
-0.36817

6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013

57.7332
58.481
58.8051
59.7909
59.6283
59.659
59.659
59.7964
59.7
60.1731
60.3507
59.6964
59.597
59.597
59.3734
59.4779
60.1035
60.1008
60.464
61.034
61.034
60.8346
60.1043
59.9833
59.7397
59.8839
59.896
59.896
59.7849
59.1504
59.3056
59.6141
59.6554
59.507
59.507
59.4783
59.5731
59.37
59.176
59.0478
PAGE 87 OF 221

-1.03095
0.93686
1.346866
3.839882
3.595094
3.64843
3.335689
2.249278
1.521807
0.639228
1.211505
0.06269
-0.10392
-0.33346
-0.54707
-1.15533
-0.40961
0.677428
1.454771
2.411195
2.796875
2.281015
0.001331
-0.1955
-1.1979
-1.88436
-1.86453
-1.54287
-0.53141
-1.38855
-0.72665
-0.45054
-0.4017
-0.64946
-0.46483
0.55435
0.451054
-0.40947
-0.80362
-0.77167

7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013

59.105
59.105
59.3726
60.3021
61.0818
60.7717
60.9808
61.129
61.129
61.1518
61.5444
61.4922
61.0812
60.6389
60.512
60.512
60.9402
61.4251
61.4451
61.3759
61.9758
62.654
62.654
63.1695
63.8104
64.2165
65.0252
64.4237
64.305
64.305
64.4248
66.1438
67.7732
67.4206
66.8917
66.517
66.517
66.3979
67.5958
67.361
PAGE 88 OF 221

-0.67555
-0.62762
-0.33656
1.569985
3.220562
2.919499
3.173674
3.424414
2.958267
1.409072
0.757345
1.185585
0.164642
-0.80175
-1.00934
-1.04625
-0.98173
-0.10912
0.595764
1.215391
2.419024
3.539794
2.812265
2.839881
3.849453
4.628201
4.920308
2.82456
2.635107
1.797545
0.962852
3.001254
4.226054
4.651859
4.022549
3.439857
3.247507
0.384163
-0.26176
-0.0884

9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013

66.2259
65.3987
64.569
64.569
64.5546
63.9281
63.4803
63.352
63.4603
63.153
63.153
62.7488
63.0729
62.8811
61.4175
61.9308
62.274
62.274
62.3597
62.5169
62.3696
61.8198
62.0309
62.702
62.702
62.5884
62.2802
62.2617
61.6524
61.203
61.011
61.011
61.3311
61.4497
61.5784
61.2797
60.6802
60.597
60.597
60.8161
PAGE 89 OF 221

-0.99534
-1.68122
-2.92857
-2.75445
-4.4991
-5.09627
-4.14581
-3.12957
-1.71708
-2.193
-2.17119
-1.84473
-0.64177
-0.74331
-3.21902
-1.9353
-1.39186
-0.75667
-1.13076
-0.57919
1.55021
-0.17923
-0.39037
0.687285
0.548912
0.114369
-0.14334
0.71482
-0.61018
-2.39067
-2.69688
-2.52028
-1.52392
-1.30417
-0.12003
0.125321
-0.5422
-0.67857
-1.19695
-1.03109

10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013

61.138
61.2657
60.8464
60.7448
60.757
60.757
61.1043
61.1525
61.0848
61.1239
61.13
61.085
61.085
61.1479
61.1642
60.9953
61.1716
61.7939
61.868
61.868
61.8485
61.7244
62.0691
62.406
62.7558
63.146
63.146
63.3445
63.7101
63.563
63.1175
62.9419
62.5742
62.574
62.4142
62.0441
62.2422
62.6737
62.6836
62.2832
PAGE 90 OF 221

-0.71519
-0.02285
0.273895
0.243906
0.264039
-0.09718
-0.05512
-0.18477
0.391806
0.624086
0.613921
0.539855
-0.03159
-0.00752
0.129983
-0.21039
0.068052
1.160514
1.28182
1.177637
1.118792
1.195338
1.467184
0.990551
1.434991
2.065688
2.097868
2.624732
2.643828
1.853988
0.576361
-0.32322
-0.90552
-1.21636
-2.03406
-2.3896
-1.38678
-0.42611
0.174832
-0.46473

11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014

62.283
62.2582
62.1461
62.1874
62.2094
62.1598
62.156
62.156
62.0489
62.1332
62.0098
61.4648
61.2622
60.896
60.896
60.7952
60.8489
61.1038
61.6358
61.9697
62.025
62.025
61.7928
61.5728
61.6118
62.0121
62.0045
61.87
61.87
61.7324
61.6022
61.578
61.7101
61.7633
61.753
61.753
61.7744
61.6312
61.587
61.8503
PAGE 91 OF 221

-0.21021
0.345077
-0.1544
-0.77592
-0.7565
-0.19813
-0.20391
-0.16416
-0.15641
-0.08716
-0.32085
-1.11809
-1.43799
-2.02716
-1.85805
-2.15344
-1.87212
-0.58733
0.609838
1.76317
1.853981
2.022857
1.551219
0.767546
-0.03894
0.068421
-0.03305
-0.2499
0.124934
0.259205
-0.01558
-0.70002
-0.4748
-0.17246
-0.18911
0.03337
0.279535
0.086394
-0.19948
0.14086

1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014

62.1569
62.115
62.115
62.1833
62.1409
61.9514
61.8571
61.502
61.154
61.154
61.1427
61.1853
61.2565
61.2253
61.1986
61.329
61.329
61.3212
61.4709
61.6566
61.7196
62.2043
62.558
62.558
62.8832
62.8105
62.4372
62.6118
62.4638
62.382
62.382
62.555
62.4971
62.2764
62.1718
62.0184
61.845
61.845
62.0598
62.0588
PAGE 92 OF 221

0.654057
0.586206
0.551361
0.895813
0.899378
0.163459
-0.48233
-0.98688
-1.54713
-1.65527
-1.60635
-1.23661
-0.97095
-0.4499
0.072931
0.286163
0.304697
0.222112
0.350004
0.704447
0.851327
1.42722
2.003946
2.016921
2.29751
1.871495
1.162678
0.655099
-0.15058
-0.28134
-0.79703
-0.40678
0.095936
-0.53568
-0.46747
-0.58286
-0.86083
-1.135
-0.69971
-0.34941

2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014

61.8099
61.9246
61.8395
61.62
61.62
61.661
61.8343
62.0191
62.0866
61.8692
61.752
61.752
61.812
61.7032
61.7926
61.9061

-0.5821
-0.15125
-0.00889
-0.36381
-0.70867
-0.641
0.039476
0.152605
0.399583
0.404414
0.214216
0.147581
-0.03606
-0.50936
-0.47353
0.059642

ROC- USD/INR
6

Value

ROC

-2

-4

-6

Days

PAGE 93 OF 221

Many traders use a value greater than zero to indicate an increase in upward momentum and a
value less than zero to indicate an increase in selling pressure. However, some of the most
valuable signals are generated when the price of the asset and the ROC are heading in opposite
directions (known as divergence).

Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:

Historic High of the period- 28th August 2013


Historic Low of the period- 12th September 2013

After this high and low, the RATE OF CHANGE is somewhat consistent for the past 5-6
5 months.

PAGE 94 OF 221

EUR/INR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

THE ABOVE CHART SHOWS THE TREND OF INR AGAINST EUR SINCE 2004 TILL 2014.

PAGE 95 OF 221

PAGE 96 OF 221

CALCULATION OF MOVING AVG FOR EUR/INR


Date
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013
3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013

Close
70.9637
71.4865
71.6416
71.6416
71.5822
71.4753
71.3937
71.1287
71.0346
70.4945
70.495
70.6608
70.6145
70.4976
70.2587
70.4395
70.4769
70.4769
69.9412
70.1188
70.1743
70.1452
70.2644
70.4061
70.4061
70.2129
69.7562
69.6482
69.5227
69.7315
69.663
69.663
69.7549

12 Days Moving
Avg.

24 Days Moving
Avg.

71.16651667
71.13741667
71.05500833
70.93976667
70.83959167
70.74748333
70.66428333
70.54324167
70.45908333
70.38739167
70.35828333
70.33906667
70.31784167
70.300475
70.27675
70.234875
70.16893333
70.08941667
70.0273
70.00411667
69.96613333
69.93118333

70.74217917
70.71894583
70.66587917
70.58732083
70.5042625
70.41845
70.34579167
70.27367917
70.21260833
70.1592875

PAGE 97 OF 221

4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013

69.7579
69.7421
70.2554
70.922
70.8574
70.8574
70.9921
70.9948
71.0389
70.975
71.1481
71.2798
71.2798
71.2001
70.8993
70.6451
70.2143
70.1611
69.8959
69.8959
70.2811
70.4069
70.2723
70.2858
70.3613
70.4398
70.4398
70.6484
70.3284
70.262
70.1722
70.0824
69.9709
69.9709
70.3715
70.4624
70.541

69.89890833
69.85538333
69.842825
69.88581667
69.939525
70.03129167
70.14328333
70.26595833
70.37490833
70.48424167
70.608
70.735075
70.8619
70.9834
71.03705833
71.01398333
70.96039167
70.90236667
70.81101667
70.71944167
70.65629167
70.60895
70.53596667
70.45313333
70.37659167
70.31323333
70.27494167
70.27521667
70.284725
70.29313333
70.31615833
70.3317
70.30585
70.26951667
70.27778333
70.2925
70.307475

PAGE 98 OF 221

70.12859583
70.097225
70.08033333
70.09314583
70.1081375
70.13308333
70.15610833
70.1776875
70.20110417
70.24417917
70.28706667
70.33312917
70.38040417
70.41939167
70.43994167
70.4499
70.44995833
70.46682917
70.47715
70.4927
70.5156
70.54659583
70.57198333
70.59410417
70.61924583
70.64831667
70.656
70.6446
70.62255833
70.59775
70.5635875
70.52557083
70.48107083
70.43923333
70.406875
70.37281667
70.34203333

5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013

70.8646
70.875
70.7843
70.7843
70.9141
70.8062
70.4374
70.3115
70.3976
70.4594
70.4594
70.5865
70.9507
71.5728
71.7672
71.9467
72.0514
72.0514
71.9158
72.0126
72.4456
73.069
73.5659
73.5789
73.5789
73.6543
73.7869
74.0316
74.6878
75.3879
75.6642
75.6642
76.3418
77.4269
77.118
77.4035
76.8086

70.342875
70.37914167
70.39046667
70.42845833
70.4828
70.53563333
70.56521667
70.5936
70.62915833
70.63648333
70.63623333
70.640025
70.6472
70.70535
70.78725833
70.884125
70.9789
71.08266667
71.20586667
71.347625
71.51829167
71.73575833
71.99463333
72.244
72.46301667
72.636475
72.80478333
72.978525
73.198225
73.47626667
73.78863333
74.09293333
74.41761667
74.780775
75.07678333
75.3955
75.66464167

PAGE 99 OF 221

70.32805417
70.32704167
70.33284167
70.35659167
70.38796667
70.42589583
70.44845833
70.449725
70.4493375
70.45713333
70.46436667
70.47375
70.4950375
70.54224583
70.5888625
70.65629167
70.73085
70.80915
70.88554167
70.9706125
71.073725
71.18612083
71.31543333
71.4420125
71.55510833
71.6709125
71.79602083
71.931325
72.0885625
72.27946667
72.49725
72.72027917
72.96795417
73.25826667
73.53570833
73.81975
74.06382917

6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013

76.7964
76.7964
77.0092
78.2066
78.6947
79.1393
78.6754
78.2565
78.2565
78.3566
78.2763
78.4957
78.6182
77.8525
77.5184
77.5184
77.3927
77.5265
77.9976
77.9477
77.8245
78.2767
78.2767
78.1214
77.1842
76.8752
78.0696
78.236
78.2463
78.2463
78.0391
77.484
77.9116
78.11
78.2947
78.1886
78.1886

75.92648333
76.177275
76.42540833
76.71864167
76.99420833
77.2838
77.53473333
77.69429167
77.763425
77.86664167
77.939375
78.07996667
78.23178333
78.31979167
78.362225
78.304875
78.196375
78.061975
78.00549167
77.97975833
77.94375833
77.9371
77.93713333
77.90594167
77.78644167
77.705
77.75093333
77.81073333
77.88186667
77.94185
77.94530833
77.90666667
77.913925
77.90003333
77.90153333
77.90713333
77.99083333

PAGE 100 OF 221

74.28147917
74.49102917
74.70196667
74.95843333
75.2352375
75.53621667
75.81383333
76.05595417
76.2721
76.4717125
76.6674375
76.87230417
77.07913333
77.24853333
77.39381667
77.51175833
77.59529167
77.6728875
77.7701125
77.837025
77.85359167
77.90187083
77.93825417
77.99295417
78.0091125
78.01239583
78.05657917
78.05780417
78.03912083
78.0019125
77.9754
77.9432125
77.92884167
77.91856667
77.91933333
77.9065375
77.8886375

7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013

78.3234
78.6151
78.4658
78.1999
78.3937
78.4702
78.4702
78.8076
79.9751
81.0415
80.537
80.7002
81.1653
81.1653
81.1368
81.7143
81.8295
81.5867
81.0615
80.7018
80.7018
81.1212
81.5915
81.4658
81.5262
82.6776
83.4808
83.4808
84.2472
85.3592
86.0244
86.758
86.074
86.0202
86.0202
86.1734
88.4336

78.11151667
78.156975
78.176125
78.17225833
78.18454167
78.22046667
78.30265
78.37731667
78.53274167
78.76164167
78.95734167
79.16664167
79.40346667
79.61598333
79.83856667
80.13143333
80.41775
80.67745833
80.8934
81.05125
81.11180833
81.11845
81.206325
81.270125
81.3002
81.426225
81.62155833
81.76876667
81.97024167
82.28461667
82.69819167
83.202875
83.65055833
84.05880833
84.42786667
84.82016667
85.39578333

PAGE 101 OF 221

77.90825833
77.95395417
77.99342917
78.0270625
78.06319583
78.0828875
78.10465833
78.14562083
78.2163875
78.3315875
78.4322375
78.5787375
78.75749167
78.88647917
79.00734583
79.15184583
79.30114583
79.4489625
79.598025
79.71428333
79.822275
79.94004583
80.08183333
80.21838333
80.35183333
80.52110417
80.7300625
80.9501
81.19399583
81.4810375
81.79579583
82.1270625
82.38118333
82.58862917
82.81709583
83.04514583
83.34799167

8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013

90.5558
89.5412
88.4924
87.9242
87.9242
87.6745
89.0676
88.7784
87.2195
85.9182
85.0884
85.0884
85.2321
84.7463
84.2745
84.2842
84.3248
83.9423
83.9423
83.8154
84.1802
84.0821
83.1133
83.7874
84.2013
84.2013
84.2816
84.3296
84.1635
83.4821
83.7839
84.7725
84.7725
84.5451
84.31
84.3242
83.8732

86.0523
86.55733333
86.97496667
87.28138333
87.49513333
87.63264167
87.82510833
88.050475
88.15041667
88.14191667
88.0515
87.77273333
87.32909167
86.92951667
86.578025
86.27469167
85.97474167
85.663725
85.23661667
84.82303333
84.56975833
84.41675
84.25215833
84.14374167
84.05784167
84.012425
84.01301667
84.0168
84.00335833
83.96500833
83.95180833
84.03156667
84.080925
84.11950833
84.21923333
84.26396667
84.236625

PAGE 102 OF 221

83.7392625
84.08944583
84.37186667
84.6258125
84.889875
85.16541667
85.51399167
85.85051667
86.1046125
86.28489167
86.43583333
86.58425833
86.69069583
86.743425
86.77649583
86.7780375
86.7349375
86.64818333
86.5308625
86.43675417
86.3600875
86.27933333
86.15182917
85.9582375
85.69346667
85.47097083
85.29552083
85.14574583
84.98905
84.81436667
84.5942125
84.4273
84.32534167
84.26812917
84.23569583
84.20385417
84.14723333

10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013

83.2373
82.6925
82.6925
83.2325
83.41
83.3765
82.8293
82.1895
82.0174
82.0174
82.4989
82.7216
82.8545
82.7724
83.0819
83.1393
83.1393
83.562
83.8229
84.1358
84.3162
84.3704
84.3046
84.3046
84.3859
84.2262
83.8545
83.6246
83.6109
83.4333
83.4333
83.4887
83.2786
83.8163
84.0809
84.067
84.3757

84.15629167
84.02386667
83.88744167
83.80985833
83.80385
83.7699
83.60796667
83.39271667
83.182075
82.991025
82.83891667
82.74295
82.71105
82.71770833
82.75015833
82.74239167
82.71983333
82.73529167
82.81809167
82.98028333
83.17185
83.36793333
83.51840833
83.650325
83.77794167
83.89909167
83.963475
84.00391667
84.04321667
84.03249167
84.000025
83.9461
83.85963333
83.81345833
83.79481667
83.77501667
83.77416667

PAGE 103 OF 221

84.08435833
84.01844167
83.95212083
83.90660833
83.88442917
83.86085417
83.81976667
83.73682083
83.65079167
83.60512917
83.55144167
83.4897875
83.43367083
83.3707875
83.3188
83.276125
83.26184167
83.25259583
83.21302917
83.1865
83.1769625
83.17947917
83.1786625
83.1966375
83.24449583
83.3084
83.35681667
83.37315417
83.381525
83.38389167
83.40905833
83.46319167
83.51574167
83.59069583
83.6566125
83.71267083
83.77605417

11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013

84.3744
84.7619
85.4238
85.4
84.9681
84.7349
84.4432
84.443
84.2717
83.8446
84.1372
84.2423
84.6379
84.4299
84.4308
84.2267
84.1526
84.4498
84.5333
84.5734
84.4657
84.4669
84.204
84.2663
84.2199
83.6782
83.7559
83.4488
83.4494
83.3788
83.6874
84.1363
84.8984
85.1495
85.2093
85.2093
85.0133

83.78651667
83.86213333
84.01206667
84.16115833
84.28905833
84.397525
84.47706667
84.5741
84.61205
84.59235833
84.59820833
84.58709167
84.60905
84.58138333
84.49863333
84.40085833
84.3329
84.30914167
84.31665
84.32751667
84.34368333
84.39554167
84.40110833
84.40310833
84.368275
84.30563333
84.24939167
84.18456667
84.12596667
84.03671667
83.966225
83.9298
83.96585833
84.02274167
84.10651667
84.1851
84.25121667

PAGE 104 OF 221

83.84280417
83.91280417
84.00799167
84.1021875
84.160775
84.198775
84.21158333
84.21686667
84.21275417
84.1935875
84.1866125
84.18062917
84.19778333
84.22175833
84.25535
84.28100833
84.31097917
84.35333333
84.39685833
84.45080833
84.47786667
84.49395
84.49965833
84.4951
84.4886625
84.44350833
84.3740125
84.2927125
84.22943333
84.17292917
84.1414375
84.12865833
84.15477083
84.20914167
84.2538125
84.29410417
84.30974583

12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014

84.7316
84.7864
84.7723
84.6528
84.5812
84.58
84.4851
84.2768
84.2436
84.4446
84.9746
84.8641
84.8653
85.0387
84.9623
84.9094
84.8264
84.7765
84.3944
84.3944
84.5961
84.6676
84.2706
84.0508
83.7817
83.5841
83.5847
83.5484
83.6465
83.4737
83.3325
83.1653
83.0371
83.0389
83.0609
83.2599
83.5829

84.339
84.424875
84.53516667
84.63545
84.73565
84.81003333
84.8391
84.7873
84.71180833
84.64808333
84.628525
84.61609167
84.62723333
84.64825833
84.66409167
84.685475
84.70590833
84.72228333
84.714725
84.724525
84.7539
84.77248333
84.71381667
84.64604167
84.55574167
84.434525
84.319725
84.20630833
84.10798333
83.99941667
83.910925
83.8085
83.67858333
83.54285833
83.44205
83.37614167
83.359575

PAGE 105 OF 221

84.32231667
84.33713333
84.35986667
84.38070833
84.38618333
84.38812917
84.38445
84.37657917
84.367275
84.3773
84.4068125
84.43365417
84.48311667
84.53656667
84.59962917
84.6604625
84.72077917
84.76615833
84.7769125
84.7559125
84.73285417
84.71028333
84.67117083
84.63106667
84.5914875
84.54139167
84.49190833
84.44589167
84.40694583
84.36085
84.312825
84.2665125
84.21624167
84.15767083
84.07793333
84.01109167
83.95765833

1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014

83.977
85.1303
85.5506
85.5499
86.0141
85.8274
85.2774
85.2215
84.5235
84.0997
84.0984
84.4374
84.4717
84.1921
84.2254
84.2966
84.3164
84.3158
84.5992
84.7618
84.1548
84.4552
84.6503
84.3553
84.3535
84.5046
84.8669
85.3078
85.1989
84.887
84.8139
84.8133
84.9136
84.7907
84.79
84.7024

83.39231667
83.52111667
83.68796667
83.84658333
84.05828333
84.26619167
84.4422
84.62423333
84.74795
84.83451667
84.90439167
84.9756
85.016825
84.93864167
84.82820833
84.72376667
84.58229167
84.456325
84.39980833
84.3615
84.330775
84.3604
84.40639167
84.39955
84.3897
84.41574167
84.4692
84.55346667
84.62700833
84.67460833
84.6925
84.69679167
84.760025
84.78798333
84.799625
84.82855

PAGE 106 OF 221

83.91342083
83.92042083
83.9471375
83.97728333
84.02885
84.08855833
84.12535
84.15140833
84.14540417
84.13828333
84.14026667
84.1675875
84.20457083
84.22987917
84.2580875
84.285175
84.3202875
84.36125833
84.42100417
84.49286667
84.5393625
84.59745833
84.65539167
84.687575
84.7032625
84.67719167
84.64870417
84.63861667
84.60465
84.56546667
84.54615417
84.52914583
84.5454
84.57419167
84.60300833
84.61405

Short term Moving Avg.-EUR/INR


100
90
80
70
PRICE

60
50
40

Close

30

12 Days Moving Avg.

20
10
0

DAYS

Long term Moving Avg.-EUR/INR


100
90
80

PRICE

70
60
50
40
30

Close

20

24 Days Moving Avg.

10
0

DAYS

PAGE 107 OF 221

The above chart shows the MACD of the closing price of EUR/INR along with its Japanese
Candlestick Chart in the year starting from 1/3/2013 to 28/2/2014.
X-axis shows the DAYS and Y-axis indicates the CLOSING PRICE of the currency.
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
7) The C formation will take place around the price INR 84.535, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
8) So, it is advisable for the investor to BUY Euros when it reaches the above rate i.e.
84.535 after the appearance of Bearish signal.
9) The D formation will take place around the price INR 89.041, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
10) So, it is advisable to sell Euros when it reaches to that point i.e. 89.041
11) Upward penetration of a falling average indicates further rise and gives buy
signal so the chart shows buy signal in the mid of October(around 11th) at point
A and downward penetration of rising average indicates the possibility of
further fall so it shows sell signal at the mid of November(around 12th) at the
Point B as per our technical analysis.
12) In the same way, buy Euros in the mid of March at C on appearance of bullish signal.

PAGE 108 OF 221

CALCULATION OF RSI FOR EUR/INR


RSI = 100 -

100
1+RS

RS =

Average Gain per Day


Average Loss per Day

Date

Close

Change

Gain

Loss

Avg.

Avg.

Gain

Loss

7 Day

RS

RSI

3/1/2013 70.9637
3/2/2013 71.4865

0.5228

0.5228

3/3/2013 71.6416

0.1551

0.1551

3/4/2013 71.6416

3/5/2013 71.5822

-0.0594

0.0594

3/6/2013 71.4753

-0.1069

0.1069

3/7/2013 71.3937

-0.0816

0.0816

3/8/2013 71.1287

-0.265

3/9/2013 71.0346

-0.0941

0.0941 0.022157 0.086714 0.255519 20.35166

3/10/2013 70.4945

-0.5401

0.5401

3/11/2013

70.495

0.0005

0.0005

3/12/2013 70.6608

0.1658

0.1658

0 0.023757 0.155386 0.152891 13.26156

3/13/2013 70.6145

-0.0463

0.0463 0.023757 0.146729 0.161912 13.93498

3/14/2013 70.4976

-0.1169

0.1169 0.023757 0.151771 0.156532 13.53463

3/15/2013 70.2587

-0.2389

0.2389 0.023757 0.148043 0.160475 13.82837

3/16/2013 70.4395

0.1808

0.1808

0 0.049586

3/17/2013 70.4769

0.0374

0.0374

0 0.054929 0.057443

0.265 0.096843 0.073271

PAGE 109 OF 221

0 0.163871

1.3217 56.92812

7.14E-05 0.163871 0.000436 0.043569

0.1346 0.368393 26.92159


0.95623 48.88126

3/18/2013 70.4769

0 0.054857 0.057443 0.954986 48.84875

3/19/2013 69.9412

-0.5357

0.5357 0.031171 0.133971 0.232672 18.87543

3/20/2013 70.1188

0.1776

0.1776

0 0.056543 0.127357 0.443971 30.74652

3/21/2013 70.1743

0.0555

0.0555

0 0.064471 0.110657 0.582623 36.81377

3/22/2013 70.1452

-0.0291

0.0291 0.064471 0.080686 0.799044 44.41492

3/23/2013 70.2644

0.1192

0.1192

0 0.055671 0.080686 0.689979 40.82766

3/24/2013 70.4061

0.1417

0.1417

0 0.070571 0.080686 0.874646 46.65659

3/25/2013 70.4061

0 0.070571 0.080686 0.874646 46.65659

3/26/2013 70.2129

-0.1932

0.1932 0.070571 0.031757 2.222222 68.96552

3/27/2013 69.7562

-0.4567

0.4567

3/28/2013 69.6482

-0.108

3/29/2013 69.5227

-0.1255

0.1255 0.037271

0.1262 0.295336 22.79997

3/30/2013 69.7315

0.2088

0.2088

0 0.050071

0.1262 0.396763 28.40587

3/31/2013

69.663

-0.0685

0.0685 0.029829 0.135986 0.219351 17.98914

4/1/2013

69.663

0 0.029829 0.135986 0.219351 17.98914

4/2/2013 69.7549

0.0919

0.0919

0 0.042957 0.108386 0.396336 28.38399

4/3/2013 69.7579

0.003

0.003

0 0.043386 0.043143 1.005629 50.14033

4/4/2013 69.7421

-0.0158

0.0158 0.043386 0.029971 1.447569 59.14314

4/5/2013 70.2554

0.5133

0.5133

0 0.116714 0.012043 9.691578 90.64684

4/6/2013

70.922

0.6666

0.6666

0 0.182114 0.012043 15.12218 93.79737

4/7/2013 70.8574

-0.0646

0.0646 0.182114 0.011486 15.85572

94.0673

4/8/2013 70.8574

0 0.182114 0.011486 15.85572

94.0673

4/9/2013 70.9921

0.1347

0.1347

0 0.188229 0.011486 16.38806 94.24893

4/10/2013 70.9948

0.0027

0.0027

0 0.188186 0.011486 16.38433 94.24769

4/11/2013 71.0389

0.0441

0.0441

0 0.194486 0.009229

21.0743 95.46985

4/12/2013

70.975

-0.0639

0.0639 0.121157 0.018357

6.6 86.84211

4/13/2013 71.1481

0.1731

0.1731

0 0.050657 0.018357 2.759533 73.40095

4/14/2013 71.2798

0.1317

0.1317

0 0.069471 0.009129 7.610329 88.38604

0.0452

0.097 0.465979 31.78622

0.108 0.037271 0.112429 0.331512 24.89741

PAGE 110 OF 221

4/15/2013 71.2798

0 0.069471 0.009129 7.610329 88.38604

4/16/2013 71.2001

-0.0797

0.0797 0.050229 0.020514 2.448468 71.00162

4/17/2013 70.8993

-0.3008

0.3008 0.049843 0.063486 0.785104 43.98084

4/18/2013 70.6451

-0.2542

0.2542 0.043543

4/19/2013 70.2143

-0.4308

0.4308 0.043543 0.152214 0.286063

4/20/2013 70.1611

-0.0532

0.0532 0.018814 0.159814 0.117726 10.53263

4/21/2013 69.8959

-0.2652

0.2652

0.1977

4/22/2013 69.8959

0.1977

4/23/2013 70.2811

0.3852

0.3852

0 0.055029 0.186314 0.295353 22.80099

4/24/2013 70.4069

0.1258

0.1258

0.073 0.143343 0.509268 33.74274

4/25/2013 70.2723

-0.1346

0.1346

0.073 0.126257 0.578185 36.63608

4/26/2013 70.2858

0.0135

0.0135

0 0.074929 0.064714 1.157837 53.65729

4/27/2013 70.3613

0.0755

0.0755

0 0.085714 0.057114

4/28/2013 70.4398

0.0785

0.0785

0 0.096929 0.019229 5.040862 83.44607

4/29/2013 70.4398

0 0.096929 0.019229 5.040862 83.44607

4/30/2013 70.6484

0.2086

0.2086

5/1/2013 70.3284

-0.32

70.262

-0.0664

0.0664 0.053729

5/3/2013 70.1722

-0.0898

0.0898

5/4/2013 70.0824

-0.0898

0.0898 0.041014 0.080857 0.507244 33.65373

5/5/2013 69.9709

-0.1115

0.1115

0.0298 0.096786 0.307897 23.54136

5/6/2013 69.9709

0.0298 0.096786 0.307897 23.54136

5/7/2013 70.3715

0.4006

0.4006

0 0.057229 0.096786 0.591292 37.15796

5/8/2013 70.4624

0.0909

0.0909

0 0.070214 0.051071 1.374825 57.89164

5/9/2013

70.541

0.0786

0.0786

0 0.081443 0.041586 1.958434 66.19833

5/10/2013 70.8646

0.3236

0.3236

0 0.127671 0.028757 4.439642 81.61644

5/11/2013

70.875

0.0104

0.0104

0 0.129157 0.015929

5/12/2013 70.7843

-0.0907

5/2/2013

0.0998 0.436301 30.37672

1.50075

0.0717 0.019229 3.728826

22.2433

60.012

78.8531

0.32 0.053729 0.064943 0.827321 45.27507


0.0552 0.973344 49.32459

0.0518 0.068029 0.761445 43.22842

8.10852 89.02127

0.0907 0.129157 0.012957 9.968026 90.88259

PAGE 111 OF 221

5/13/2013 70.7843

0 0.129157 0.012957 9.968026 90.88259

5/14/2013 70.9141

0.1298

0.1298

0 0.090471 0.012957 6.982359 87.47238

5/15/2013 70.8062

-0.1079

0.1079 0.077486 0.028371 2.731118 73.19838

5/16/2013 70.4374

-0.3688

0.3688 0.066257 0.081057 0.817413 44.97673

5/17/2013 70.3115

-0.1259

0.1259 0.020029 0.099043 0.202221 16.82064

5/18/2013 70.3976

0.0861

0.0861

0 0.030843 0.099043 0.311409 23.74615

5/19/2013 70.4594

0.0618

0.0618

0 0.039671 0.086086 0.460836 31.54606

5/20/2013 70.4594

0 0.039671 0.086086 0.460836 31.54606

5/21/2013 70.5865

0.1271

0.1271

0 0.039286 0.086086 0.456356 31.33546

5/22/2013 70.9507

0.3642

0.3642

0 0.091314 0.070671 1.292096 56.37181

5/23/2013 71.5728

0.6221

0.6221

0 0.180186 0.017986 10.01827 90.92416

5/24/2013 71.7672

0.1944

0.1944

0 0.207957

100

5/25/2013 71.9467

0.1795

0.1795

0.2213

100

5/26/2013 72.0514

0.1047

0.1047

0 0.227429

100

5/27/2013 72.0514

0 0.227429

100

5/28/2013 71.9158

-0.1356

5/29/2013 72.0126

0.0968

0.0968

0 0.171071 0.019371 8.831121 89.82822

5/30/2013 72.4456

0.433

0.433

0 0.144057 0.019371 7.436578 88.14685

73.069

0.6234

0.6234

0 0.205343 0.019371 10.60029 91.37953

6/1/2013 73.5659

0.4969

0.4969

0 0.250686 0.019371

6/2/2013 73.5789

0.013

0.013

0 0.237586 0.019371 12.26475 92.46122

6/3/2013 73.5789

0 0.237586 0.019371 12.26475 92.46122

6/4/2013 73.6543

0.0754

0.0754

0 0.248357

100

6/5/2013 73.7869

0.1326

0.1326

0 0.253471

100

6/6/2013 74.0316

0.2447

0.2447

0 0.226571

100

6/7/2013 74.6878

0.6562

0.6562

0 0.231257

100

6/8/2013 75.3879

0.7001

0.7001

0 0.260286

100

6/9/2013 75.6642

0.2763

0.2763

100

5/31/2013

0.1356 0.209271 0.019371

PAGE 112 OF 221

0.2979

10.8031 91.52765

12.941 92.82691

6/10/2013 75.6642

6/11/2013 76.3418

0.6776

6/12/2013 77.4269
6/13/2013

0.2979

100

0.6776

0 0.383929

100

1.0851

1.0851

100

77.118

-0.3089

0.3089 0.485043 0.044129 10.99158 91.66082

6/14/2013 77.4035

0.2855

0.2855

0 0.432086 0.044129 9.791518 90.73346

6/15/2013 76.8086

-0.5949

0.5949 0.332071 0.129114 2.571919 72.00384

6/16/2013 76.7964

-0.0122

0.0122

0.2926 0.130857 2.236026

69.0979

6/17/2013 76.7964

0.2926 0.130857 2.236026

69.0979

6/18/2013 77.0092

0.2128

0.2128

0.2262 0.130857 1.728603

63.3512

6/19/2013 78.2066

1.1974

1.1974

0 0.242243 0.130857 1.851201 64.92706

6/20/2013 78.6947

0.4881

0.4881

0 0.311971 0.086729 3.597101 78.24716

6/21/2013 79.1393

0.4446

0.4446

0.3347 0.086729 3.859167 79.42034

6/22/2013 78.6754

-0.4639

0.4639

0.3347 0.068014 4.921025 83.11103

6/23/2013 78.2565

-0.4189

0.4189

0.3347 0.126114 2.653942

72.6323

6/24/2013 78.2565

0.3347 0.126114 2.653942

72.6323

6/25/2013 78.3566

0.1001

0.1001

0.3186 0.126114

71.6415

6/26/2013 78.2763

-0.0803

6/27/2013 78.4957

0.2194

0.2194

0 0.109157 0.137586 0.793376 44.23923

6/28/2013 78.6182

0.1225

0.1225

0 0.063143 0.137586 0.458935 31.45684

6/29/2013 77.8525

-0.7657

0.7657 0.063143

6/30/2013 77.5184

-0.3341

0.3341 0.063143 0.168586 0.374545 27.24863

7/1/2013 77.5184

0 0.063143 0.168586 0.374545 27.24863

7/2/2013 77.3927

-0.1257

0.1257 0.048843 0.186543 0.261832 20.75014

7/3/2013 77.5265

0.1338

0.1338

0 0.067957 0.175071 0.388168 27.96261

7/4/2013 77.9976

0.4711

0.4711

0 0.103914 0.175071 0.593554 37.24717

7/5/2013 77.9477

-0.0499

0.0499 0.086414

7/6/2013 77.8245

-0.1232

0.1232 0.086414 0.090414 0.955759 48.86896

7/7/2013 78.2767

0.4522

0.4522

0 0.151014 0.042686 3.537818 77.96298

0.52

0.0803 0.147543 0.137586

PAGE 113 OF 221

2.52628

1.07237 51.74608

0.1807 0.349435

0.1822 0.474283

25.8949

32.1704

7/8/2013 78.2767

0 0.151014 0.042686 3.537818 77.96298

7/9/2013 78.1214

-0.1553

0.1553 0.151014 0.046914

7/10/2013 77.1842

-0.9372

0.9372

7/11/2013 76.8752

-0.309

0.309

7/12/2013 78.0696

1.1944

1.1944

0 0.235229 0.217814

7/13/2013

78.236

0.1664

0.1664

7/14/2013 78.2463

0.0103

0.0103

0 0.195871 0.200214 0.978309 49.45178

7/15/2013 78.2463

0 0.195871 0.200214 0.978309 49.45178

7/16/2013 78.0391

-0.2072

0.2072 0.195871 0.207629 0.943374

7/17/2013

77.484

-0.5551

0.5551 0.195871 0.153043 1.279847 56.13741

7/18/2013 77.9116

0.4276

0.4276

0 0.256957

0.1089

7/19/2013

78.11

0.1984

0.1984

0 0.114671

0.1089 1.052998 51.29073

7/20/2013 78.2947

0.1847

0.1847

0 0.117286

0.1089 1.077004 51.85372

7/21/2013 78.1886

-0.1061

0.1061 0.115814 0.124057 0.933556 48.28182

7/22/2013 78.1886

0 0.115814 0.124057 0.933556 48.28182

7/23/2013 78.3234

0.1348

0.1348

0 0.135071 0.094457 1.429976 58.84733

7/24/2013 78.6151

0.2917

0.2917

0 0.176743 0.015157

11.6607 92.10154

7/25/2013 78.4658

-0.1493

0.1493 0.115657 0.036486

3.16993 76.01878

7/26/2013 78.1999

-0.2659

0.2659 0.087314 0.074471 1.172453 53.96909

7/27/2013 78.3937

0.1938

0.1938

0 0.088614 0.074471

7/28/2013 78.4702

0.0765

0.0765

0 0.099543 0.059314 1.678227 62.66187

7/29/2013 78.4702

0 0.099543 0.059314 1.678227 62.66187

7/30/2013 78.8076

0.3374

0.3374

0 0.128486 0.059314 2.166185 68.41625

7/31/2013 79.9751

1.1675

1.1675

8/1/2013 81.0415

1.0664

1.0664

0 0.405943 0.037986 10.68672 91.44328

8/2/2013

80.537

-0.5045

0.5045 0.405943 0.072071 5.632507 84.92275

8/3/2013 80.7002

0.1632

0.1632

0 0.401571 0.072071 5.571853 84.78359

8/4/2013 81.1653

0.4651

0.4651

0 0.457086 0.072071 6.342121 86.37996

PAGE 114 OF 221

0.1319

3.21894 76.29737

0.1808 0.729535

42.181

0.0646 0.224943 0.287184 22.31103


1.07995 51.92192

0.259 0.200214 1.293614 56.40068

0.2536 0.059314

48.5431

2.35957 70.23428

1.18991 54.33602

4.27553 81.04456

8/5/2013 81.1653

0 0.457086 0.072071 6.342121 86.37996

8/6/2013 81.1368

-0.0285

0.0285 0.408886 0.076143 5.369981 84.30137

8/7/2013 81.7143

0.5775

0.5775

8/8/2013 81.8295

0.1152

0.1152

0 0.188714 0.076143 2.478424 71.25135

8/9/2013 81.5867

-0.2428

0.2428 0.188714 0.038757 4.869149 82.96175

8/10/2013 81.0615

-0.5252

0.5252

8/11/2013 80.7018

-0.3597

0.3597 0.098957 0.165171 0.599118 37.46552

8/12/2013 80.7018

0 0.098957 0.165171 0.599118 37.46552

8/13/2013 81.1212

0.4194

0.4194

0 0.158871

0.1611 0.986167 49.65175

8/14/2013 81.5915

0.4703

0.4703

0 0.143557

0.1611 0.891106 47.12089

8/15/2013 81.4658

-0.1257

8/16/2013 81.5262

0.0604

0.0604

0 0.135729 0.144371 0.940135 48.45718

8/17/2013 82.6776

1.1514

1.1514

0 0.300214 0.069343 4.329419 81.23623

8/18/2013 83.4808

0.8032

0.8032

0 0.414957 0.017957 23.10819 95.85203

8/19/2013 83.4808

0 0.414957 0.017957 23.10819 95.85203

8/20/2013 84.2472

0.7664

0.7664

8/21/2013 85.3592

1.112

1.112

8/22/2013 86.0244

0.6652

0.6652

0 0.651229

100

8/23/2013

86.758

0.7336

0.7336

100

8/24/2013

86.074

-0.684

8/25/2013 86.0202

-0.0538

0.0538 0.468171

0.1054 4.441854 81.62391

8/26/2013 86.0202

0 0.468171

0.1054 4.441854 81.62391

8/27/2013 86.1734

0.1532

0.1532

0 0.380571

0.1054 3.610735 78.31148

8/28/2013 88.4336

2.2602

2.2602

0.5446

0.1054 5.166983 83.78462

8/29/2013 90.5558

2.1222

2.1222

0 0.752743

0.1054 7.141773 87.71766

8/30/2013 89.5412

-1.0146

1.0146 0.647943 0.250343 2.588222 72.13104

8/31/2013 88.4924

-1.0488

1.0488 0.647943 0.302457 2.142263 68.17581

9/1/2013 87.9242

-0.5682

0.5682 0.647943 0.375943 1.723514 63.28273

0.1257

0.3246 0.076143 4.263039 80.99957

0.1654 0.113786

1.45361 59.24372

0.1271 0.179057 0.709829 41.51463

0 0.464529 0.017957 25.86874


0

96.2782

0.5562 0.017957 30.97375 96.87243

0.7474

0.684 0.582914 0.097714 5.965497 85.64352

PAGE 115 OF 221

9/2/2013 87.9242

0 0.647943 0.375943 1.723514 63.28273

9/3/2013 87.6745

-0.2497

0.2497 0.626057 0.411614

1.52098 60.33289

9/4/2013 89.0676

1.3931

1.3931

0 0.502186 0.411614

1.22004 54.95576

9/5/2013 88.7784

-0.2892

0.2892 0.199014 0.452929 0.439394 30.52634

9/6/2013 87.2195

-1.5589

1.5589 0.199014 0.530686 0.375013 27.27344

9/7/2013 85.9182

-1.3013

1.3013 0.199014 0.566757 0.351146 25.98873

9/8/2013 85.0884

-0.8298

0.8298 0.199014 0.604129 0.329424 24.77944

9/9/2013 85.0884

0 0.199014 0.604129 0.329424 24.77944

9/10/2013 85.2321

0.1437

0.1437

0 0.219543 0.568457 0.386208 27.86077

9/11/2013 84.7463

-0.4858

0.4858 0.020529 0.637857 0.032184 3.118016

9/12/2013 84.2745

-0.4718

0.4718 0.020529 0.663943 0.030919 2.999186

9/13/2013 84.2842

0.0097

0.0097

0 0.021914 0.441243 0.049665 4.731501

9/14/2013 84.3248

0.0406

0.0406

0 0.027714 0.255343 0.108538 9.791057

9/15/2013 83.9423

-0.3825

0.3825 0.027714 0.191443 0.144765 12.64585

9/16/2013 83.9423

0 0.027714 0.191443 0.144765 12.64585

9/17/2013 83.8154

-0.1269

0.1269 0.007186 0.209571 0.034288 3.315099

9/18/2013 84.1802

0.3648

0.3648

0.0593 0.140171 0.423053 29.72857

9/19/2013 84.0821

-0.0981

0.0981

0.0593 0.086786 0.683292 40.59261

9/20/2013 83.1133

-0.9688

0.9688 0.057914 0.225186 0.257185 20.45718

9/21/2013 83.7874

0.6741

0.6741

0 0.148414 0.225186 0.659075 39.72545

9/22/2013 84.2013

0.4139

0.4139

0 0.207543 0.170543 1.216954 54.89307

9/23/2013 84.2013

0 0.207543 0.170543 1.216954 54.89307

9/24/2013 84.2816

0.0803

0.0803

0 0.219014 0.152414 1.436967 58.96538

9/25/2013 84.3296

0.048

0.048

0 0.173757 0.152414 1.140032 53.27172

9/26/2013 84.1635

-0.1661

0.1661 0.173757 0.162129 1.071724 51.73103

9/27/2013 83.4821

-0.6814

0.6814 0.173757 0.121071 1.435162 58.93497

9/28/2013 83.7839

0.3018

0.3018

0 0.120571 0.121071

9/29/2013 84.7725

0.9886

0.9886

0 0.202671 0.121071 1.673982 62.60259

PAGE 116 OF 221

0.99587 49.89654

9/30/2013 84.7725

10/1/2013 84.5451

-0.2274

0.2274

10/2/2013

84.31

-0.2351

0.2351 0.184343 0.187143 0.985038 49.62313

10/3/2013 84.3242

0.0142

0.0142

10/4/2013 83.8732

-0.451

10/5/2013 83.2373

-0.6359

0.6359 0.143257 0.221343 0.647218 39.29159

10/6/2013 82.6925

-0.5448

0.5448 0.002029 0.299171 0.006781 0.673496

10/7/2013 82.6925

0 0.002029 0.299171 0.006781 0.673496

10/8/2013 83.2325

0.54

0.54

0 0.079171 0.266686 0.296872 22.89137

83.41

0.1775

0.1775

10/10/2013 83.3765

-0.0335

0.0335

0.1025 0.237886 0.430879

10/11/2013 82.8293

-0.5472

0.5472

0.1025 0.251629 0.407346 28.94429

10/12/2013 82.1895

-0.6398

0.6398

0.1025 0.252186 0.406446 28.89882

10/13/2013 82.0174

-0.1721

0.1721

0.1025 0.198943 0.515223 34.00313

10/14/2013 82.0174

0.1025 0.198943 0.515223 34.00313

10/15/2013 82.4989

0.4815

0.4815

0 0.094143 0.198943 0.473216 32.12127

10/16/2013 82.7216

0.2227

0.2227

10/17/2013 82.8545

0.1329

0.1329

0 0.119586 0.194157 0.615922 38.11584

10/18/2013 82.7724

-0.0821

0.0821 0.119586 0.127714 0.936353 48.35654

10/19/2013 83.0819

0.3095

0.3095

0.1638 0.036314 4.510622 81.85323

10/20/2013 83.1393

0.0574

0.0574

0.172 0.011729 14.66504 93.61636

10/21/2013 83.1393

0.172 0.011729 14.66504 93.61636

83.562

0.4227

0.4227

0.1636 0.011729 13.94884 93.31052

10/23/2013 83.8229

0.2609

0.2609

0 0.169057 0.011729 14.41413 93.51245

10/24/2013 84.1358

0.3129

0.3129

0 0.194771 0.011729 16.60658

10/25/2013 84.3162

0.1804

0.1804

0 0.220543

100

10/26/2013 84.3704

0.0542

0.0542

0 0.184071

100

10/27/2013 84.3046

-0.0658

0.0658 0.175871

10/9/2013

10/22/2013

0 0.202671 0.121071 1.673982 62.60259


0.1912 0.153557 1.245139 55.45933

0 0.186371 0.163414 1.140484


0.451 0.186371

0 0.104529

PAGE 117 OF 221

0.1305 1.428134

53.2816
58.8161

0.2331 0.448428 30.95963


30.1129

0.1006 0.198943 0.505673 33.58451

94.3203

0.0094 18.70973 94.92636

10/28/2013 84.3046

0 0.175871

0.0094 18.70973 94.92636

10/29/2013 84.3859

0.0813

0.0813

0.0094 13.52128 93.11355

10/30/2013 84.2262

-0.1597

0.1597 0.089829 0.032214

10/31/2013 83.8545

-0.3717

0.3717 0.045129 0.085314 0.528969 34.59643

11/1/2013 83.6246

-0.2299

0.2299 0.019357 0.118157 0.163825 14.07646

11/2/2013 83.6109

-0.0137

0.0137 0.011614 0.120114 0.096694 8.816831

11/3/2013 83.4333

-0.1776

0.1776 0.011614 0.136086 0.085345

7.86343

11/4/2013 83.4333

0 0.011614 0.136086 0.085345

7.86343

11/5/2013 83.4887

0.0554

0.0554

0 0.007914 0.136086 0.058157 5.496032

11/6/2013 83.2786

-0.2101

0.2101 0.007914 0.143286 0.055234 5.234316

11/7/2013 83.8163

0.5377

0.5377

0 0.084729 0.090186

11/8/2013 84.0809

0.2646

0.2646

0 0.122529 0.057343 2.136771 68.12009

11/9/2013

84.067

-0.0139

0.0139 0.122529 0.057371 2.135707 68.10927

11/10/2013 84.3757

0.3087

0.3087

11/11/2013 84.3744

-0.0013

0.0013 0.166629 0.032186 5.177097 83.81117

11/12/2013 84.7619

0.3875

0.3875

0 0.214071 0.032186 6.651132 86.93004

11/13/2013 85.4238

0.6619

0.6619

0 0.308629 0.002171 142.1316 99.30134

11/14/2013

85.4

-0.0238

0.0238 0.231814 0.005571 41.60769 97.65301

11/15/2013 84.9681

-0.4319

0.4319 0.194014 0.067271 2.884052 74.25369

11/16/2013 84.7349

-0.2332

0.2332 0.194014

11/17/2013 84.4432

-0.2917

0.2917 0.149914 0.140271 1.068744

11/18/2013

84.443

-0.0002

0.0002 0.149914 0.140114 1.069943 51.68949

11/19/2013 84.2717

-0.1713

0.1713 0.094557 0.164586 0.574516 36.48842

11/20/2013 83.8446

-0.4271

0.4271

11/21/2013 84.1372

0.2926

0.2926

0.0418

0.2222 0.188119 15.83333

11/22/2013 84.2423

0.1051

0.1051

0 0.056814

0.1605 0.353983 26.14383

11/23/2013 84.6379

0.3956

0.3956

0 0.113329 0.127186 0.891048 47.11927

11/24/2013 84.4299

-0.208

0.208 0.113329 0.115229 0.983511 49.58435

0.1271

0 0.166629

PAGE 118 OF 221

2.78847 73.60412

0.93949 48.44005

0.032 5.207143 83.88953

0.0986 1.967691 66.30376

0.2256

51.6615

11/25/2013 84.4308

0.0009

0.0009

0 0.113457

0.1152 0.984871 49.61889

11/26/2013 84.2267

-0.2041

0.2041 0.113457 0.119886 0.946378 48.62251

11/27/2013 84.1526

-0.0741

0.0741 0.113457 0.069457 1.633484 62.02749

11/28/2013 84.4498

0.2972

0.2972

0 0.114114 0.069457 1.642945 62.16342

11/29/2013 84.5333

0.0835

0.0835

0 0.111029 0.069457 1.598519 61.51654

11/30/2013 84.5734

0.0401

0.0401

0 0.060243 0.069457 0.867339 46.44785

12/1/2013 84.4657

-0.1077

12/2/2013 84.4669

0.0012

0.0012

0 0.060286 0.055129 1.093548 52.23419

12/3/2013

84.204

-0.2629

0.2629 0.060286 0.063529 0.948954 48.69043

12/4/2013 84.2663

0.0623

0.0623

12/5/2013 84.2199

-0.0464

0.0464 0.026729 0.059571 0.448681 30.97169

12/6/2013 83.6782

-0.5417

0.5417

12/7/2013 83.7559

0.0777

0.0777

0 0.020171 0.136957 0.147283 12.83753

12/8/2013 83.4488

-0.3071

0.3071 0.020171 0.165443 0.121924 10.86739

12/9/2013 83.4494

0.0006

0.0006

0 0.020086 0.165443 0.121406 10.82621

12/10/2013 83.3788

-0.0706

0.0706 0.020086 0.137971 0.145579 12.70788

12/11/2013 83.6874

0.3086

0.3086

0 0.055271 0.137971 0.400601 28.60206

12/12/2013 84.1363

0.4489

0.4489

12/13/2013 84.8984

0.7621

0.7621

0 0.228271 0.053957 4.230606 80.88176

12/14/2013 85.1495

0.2511

0.2511

0 0.253043 0.053957 4.689701 82.42438

12/15/2013 85.2093

0.0598

0.0598

0 0.261586 0.010086 25.93626 96.28753

12/16/2013 85.2093

12/17/2013 85.0133

-0.196

0.196

12/18/2013 84.7316

-0.2817

0.2817 0.217414 0.068243 3.185891 76.11022

12/19/2013 84.7864

0.0548

0.0548

0 0.161114 0.068243 2.360896 70.24603

12/20/2013 84.7723

-0.0141

0.0141 0.052243 0.070257 0.743595 42.64723

12/21/2013 84.6528

-0.1195

0.1195 0.016371 0.087329 0.187469

12/22/2013 84.5812

-0.0716

0.0716 0.007829 0.097557 0.080246 7.428494

0.1077 0.060243 0.055129

0 0.069186 0.052943

PAGE 119 OF 221

1.09277 52.21644

1.3068

56.6499

0.0148 0.136957 0.108063 9.752424

0.1194 0.131343 0.909071 47.61851

0.2615 0.010086 25.92776 96.28636


0.2615

0.028 9.339286 90.32815

15.7873

12/23/2013

84.58

-0.0012

0.0012 0.007829 0.097729 0.080105

12/24/2013 84.4851

-0.0949

0.0949 0.007829 0.083286 0.093997 8.592035

12/25/2013 84.2768

-0.2083

0.2083 0.007829

12/26/2013 84.2436

-0.0332

0.0332

12/27/2013 84.4446

0.201

0.201

0 0.028714 0.075529 0.380178 27.54557

12/28/2013 84.9746

0.53

0.53

0 0.104429 0.058457 1.786413 64.11156

12/29/2013 84.8641

-0.1105

0.1105 0.104429 0.064014 1.631332 61.99644

12/30/2013 84.8653

0.0012

0.0012

12/31/2013 85.0387

0.1734

0.1734

0 0.129371 0.050286 2.572727 72.01018

1/1/2014 84.9623

-0.0764

0.0764 0.129371 0.031443 4.114493 80.44772

1/2/2014 84.9094

-0.0529

0.0529 0.129371 0.034257

1/3/2014 84.8264

-0.083

0.083 0.100657 0.046114 2.182776 68.58088

1/4/2014 84.7765

-0.0499

0.0499 0.024943 0.053243 0.468473 31.90206

1/5/2014 84.3944

-0.3821

0.3821 0.024943 0.092043 0.270992 21.32128

1/6/2014 84.3944

0 0.024771 0.092043 0.269129 21.20582

1/7/2014 84.5961

0.2017

0.2017

0 0.028814 0.092043 0.313053 23.84161

1/8/2014 84.6676

0.0715

0.0715

0 0.039029 0.081129 0.481071 32.48127

1/9/2014 84.2706

-0.397

0.397 0.039029 0.130286 0.299561 23.05096

1/10/2014 84.0508

-0.2198

0.2198 0.039029 0.149829 0.260488 20.66566

1/11/2014 83.7817

-0.2691

0.2691 0.039029 0.181143 0.215457 17.72645

1/12/2014 83.5841

-0.1976

0.1976 0.039029 0.154786 0.252146

1/13/2014 83.5847

0.0006

0.0006

1/14/2014 83.5484

-0.0363

0.0363

0.0103 0.159971 0.064386 6.049165

1/15/2014 83.6465

0.0981

0.0981

0.0141 0.159971 0.088141 8.100123

1/16/2014 83.4737

-0.1728

0.1728

0.0141 0.127943 0.110205 9.926582

1/17/2014 83.3325

-0.1412

0.1412

0.0141 0.116714 0.120808 10.77864

1/18/2014 83.1653

-0.1672

0.1672

0.0141 0.102157 0.138023 12.12829

1/19/2014 83.0371

-0.1282

0.1282

0.0141 0.092243 0.152857

0.0728 0.107535 9.709426

0 0.077543

0.1046 0.063843 1.638398 62.09821

0 0.039114 0.154786

PAGE 120 OF 221

7.41643

3.77648 79.06408

0.2527

20.1371
20.1724

13.259

1/20/2014 83.0389

0.0018

0.0018

0 0.014271 0.092243 0.154716 13.39861

1/21/2014 83.0609

0.022

0.022

0 0.017414 0.087057 0.200033 16.66895

1/22/2014 83.2599

0.199

0.199

0 0.031829 0.087057 0.365606 26.77241

1/23/2014 83.5829

0.323

0.323

0 0.077971 0.062371 1.250115 55.55782

83.977

0.3941

0.3941

0 0.134271

1/25/2014 85.1303

1.1533

1.1533

0 0.299029 0.018314 16.32761 94.22886

1/26/2014 85.5506

0.4203

0.4203

0 0.359071

1/27/2014 85.5499

-0.0007

0.0007 0.358814

0.0001 3588.143 99.97214

1/28/2014 86.0141

0.4642

0.4642

0 0.421986

0.0001 4219.857 99.97631

1/29/2014 85.8274

-0.1867

0.1867 0.393557 0.026771 14.70064 93.63083

1/30/2014 85.2774

-0.55

0.55 0.347414 0.105343 3.297939 76.73303

1/31/2014 85.2215

-0.0559

0.0559 0.291114 0.113329 2.568763 71.97909

2/1/2014 84.5235

-0.698

0.698 0.126357 0.213043 0.593107 37.22956

2/2/2014 84.0997

-0.4238

0.4238 0.066314 0.273586 0.242389 19.50994

2/3/2014 84.0984

-0.0013

0.0013 0.066314 0.273671 0.242314 19.50502

2/4/2014 84.4374

0.339

0.339

0 0.048429 0.273671 0.176959 15.03526

2/5/2014 84.4717

0.0343

0.0343

2/6/2014 84.1921

-0.2796

0.2796 0.053329 0.208371

0.25593 20.37775

2/7/2014 84.2254

0.0333

0.0333

0 0.058086 0.200386

0.28987 22.47278

2/8/2014 84.2966

0.0712

0.0712

0 0.068257 0.100671 0.678019 40.40592

2/9/2014 84.3164

0.0198

0.0198

0 0.071086 0.040129 1.771449 63.91779

2/10/2014 84.3158

-0.0006

0.0006 0.071086 0.040029 1.775874 63.97531

2/11/2014 84.5992

0.2834

0.2834

0 0.063143 0.040029 1.577445 61.20188

2/12/2014 84.7618

0.1626

0.1626

0 0.081471 0.040029 2.035332 67.05467

2/13/2014 84.1548

-0.607

0.607 0.081471

0.0868 0.938611 48.41667

2/14/2014 84.4552

0.3004

0.3004

0 0.119629

0.0868 1.378209 57.95156

2/15/2014 84.6503

0.1951

0.1951

0 0.137329

0.0868 1.582126 61.27223

2/16/2014 84.3553

-0.295

1/24/2014

0 0.053329

0.295

PAGE 121 OF 221

0.0422 3.181787 76.08678

100

0.247 0.215905 17.75674

0.1345 0.128943 1.043098 51.05472

2/17/2014 84.3535

-0.0018

0.0018

0.1345 0.129114 1.041713 51.02151

2/18/2014 84.5046

0.1511

0.1511

0.1156 0.129114 0.895331 47.23876

2/19/2014 84.8669

0.3623

0.3623

0 0.144129 0.129114 1.116287 52.74743

2/20/2014 85.3078

0.4409

0.4409

0 0.207114

2/21/2014 85.1989

-0.1089

0.1089

2/22/2014

84.887

-0.3119

0.3119 0.136329 0.102514 1.329849 57.07877

2/23/2014 84.8139

-0.0731

0.0731 0.136329 0.070814 1.925156 65.81379

2/24/2014 84.8133

-0.0006

0.0006 0.136329 0.070643 1.929828

2/25/2014 84.9136

0.1003

0.1003

2/26/2014 84.7907

-0.1229

0.1229 0.077314

0.0882 0.876579 46.71155

2/27/2014

84.79

-0.0007

0.0007 0.014329

0.0883 0.162271 13.96158

2/28/2014 84.7024

-0.0876

0.0876 0.014329 0.085257 0.168063 14.38818

0.0424 4.884771 83.00698

0.1642 0.057957 2.833128 73.91165

0 0.129071 0.070643 1.827098 64.62804

7 Day EUR/INR
120
100
80
RSI

65.8683

60
40

7 Day RSI

20
0

DAYS

PAGE 122 OF 221

In the above chart RSI is calculated for 7 days for EUR/INR.


The broad rule, if RSI crosses 70 there may be downturn & time to sell. If RSI falls
below 30 it is time to buy the share.
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
5) Varying the time period of the Relative Strength Index can increase or decrease the number of buy
and sell signals. So, lesser the time period of RSI, higher the appearance of signals.

6) The chart shows Overbought Regions when RSI crosses mark of 70:
28th August, 2013 and 27th January, 2014. It gives an indication to sell.

7) The chart shows Oversold Regions when RSI crosses mark of 30:
1st November, 2013 and 16th January, 2014. It gives an indication to buy.

8) Since it is nearing the mark of 25, it is highly predicted that it is already in the Oversold
Region soon. And thus, gives an indication to buy Euros currently.

PAGE 123 OF 221

CALCULATION OF ROC FOR EUR/INR

ROC = ((Todays close Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) * 100

DATE
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013

CLOSE

ROC
70.9637
71.4865
71.6416
71.6416
71.5822
71.4753
71.3937
71.1287
71.0346
70.4945
70.495
70.6608
70.6145
70.4976
70.2587
70.4395
70.4769
70.4769
69.9412
70.1188
70.1743
70.1452
70.2644
70.4061
70.4061
70.2129
69.7562
69.6482
69.5227
69.7315

PAGE 124 OF 221

0.605944
-0.50051
-0.84727
-1.60116
-1.51881
-1.13955
-1.09141
-0.88726
-1.09228
-0.07802
-0.02568
-0.26026
-0.95349
-0.53732
-0.12013
-0.41781
-0.30152
-0.10046
0.664701
0.134201
-0.5958
-0.70853
-1.05558
-0.95816

3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013

69.663
69.663
69.7549
69.7579
69.7421
70.2554
70.922
70.8574
70.8574
70.9921
70.9948
71.0389
70.975
71.1481
71.2798
71.2798
71.2001
70.8993
70.6451
70.2143
70.1611
69.8959
69.8959
70.2811
70.4069
70.2723
70.2858
70.3613
70.4398
70.4398
70.6484
70.3284
70.262
70.1722
70.0824
69.9709
69.9709
70.3715
70.4624
70.541
PAGE 125 OF 221

-1.05545
-0.78319
-0.00186
0.157506
0.31558
0.75131
1.807272
1.71454
1.580534
1.769262
1.796189
1.115217
0.07473
0.410261
0.596127
0.405256
0.289176
-0.19651
-0.46481
-1.31247
-1.56945
-1.9415
-1.83174
-0.87194
-0.33718
0.082604
0.177734
0.665847
0.778157
0.225808
0.343006
0.079832
-0.03386
-0.26876
-0.50738
-0.66567
-0.95897
0.061284
0.285218
0.525564

5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013

70.8646
70.875
70.7843
70.7843
70.9141
70.8062
70.4374
70.3115
70.3976
70.4594
70.4594
70.5865
70.9507
71.5728
71.7672
71.9467
72.0514
72.0514
71.9158
72.0126
72.4456
73.069
73.5659
73.5789
73.5789
73.6543
73.7869
74.0316
74.6878
75.3879
75.6642
75.6642
76.3418
77.4269
77.118
77.4035
76.8086
76.7964
76.7964
77.0092
PAGE 126 OF 221

1.116115
1.292109
1.162483
0.586601
0.641051
0.375952
-0.60284
-0.79506
-0.54631
-0.459
-0.6412
-0.31028
0.728732
1.793874
1.945521
2.110861
2.259457
2.075326
1.36024
0.614479
0.945279
1.559905
2.101972
2.120014
2.312566
2.27974
1.851458
1.317385
1.525027
2.458585
2.834101
2.728829
3.462539
4.586285
3.253811
2.673639
1.512472
1.496348
0.59548
-0.53948

6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013

78.2066
78.6947
79.1393
78.6754
78.2565
78.2565
78.3566
78.2763
78.4957
78.6182
77.8525
77.5184
77.5184
77.3927
77.5265
77.9976
77.9477
77.8245
78.2767
78.2767
78.1214
77.1842
76.8752
78.0696
78.236
78.2463
78.2463
78.0391
77.484
77.9116
78.11
78.2947
78.1886
78.1886
78.3234
78.6151
78.4658
78.1999
78.3937
78.4702
PAGE 127 OF 221

1.411603
1.668142
3.034426
2.446729
1.901261
1.619677
0.1918
-0.53167
-0.81325
-0.0727
-0.51625
-0.94318
-1.06972
-1.12882
-1.23472
-0.78938
0.122283
0.394874
0.978219
1.142227
0.767351
-1.04285
-1.37592
0.314939
-0.052
-0.03884
0.159879
1.10761
0.791933
-0.20238
-0.16105
0.061856
-0.07374
0.191571
1.08332
0.902946
0.455511
-0.12108
0.262314
0.360155

7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013

78.4702
78.8076
79.9751
81.0415
80.537
80.7002
81.1653
81.1653
81.1368
81.7143
81.8295
81.5867
81.0615
80.7018
80.7018
81.1212
81.5915
81.4658
81.5262
82.6776
83.4808
83.4808
84.2472
85.3592
86.0244
86.758
86.074
86.0202
86.0202
86.1734
88.4336
90.5558
89.5412
88.4924
87.9242
87.9242
87.6745
89.0676
88.7784
87.2195
PAGE 128 OF 221

0.187428
0.244864
1.923513
3.633764
2.734021
2.841843
3.434552
2.991717
1.452577
0.830192
1.604852
1.09851
-0.12789
-0.57106
-0.53613
-0.72582
-0.29085
-0.14819
0.573268
2.448273
3.443542
2.908734
3.254873
4.779183
5.51749
4.935315
3.106343
3.041897
2.104521
0.953851
2.800601
4.377464
4.028162
2.873976
2.213434
2.031717
-0.85838
-1.64341
-0.8519
-1.43843

9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013

85.9182
85.0884
85.0884
85.2321
84.7463
84.2745
84.2842
84.3248
83.9423
83.9423
83.8154
84.1802
84.0821
83.1133
83.7874
84.2013
84.2013
84.2816
84.3296
84.1635
83.4821
83.7839
84.7725
84.7725
84.5451
84.31
84.3242
83.8732
83.2373
82.6925
82.6925
83.2325
83.41
83.3765
82.8293
82.1895
82.0174
82.0174
82.4989
82.7216
PAGE 129 OF 221

-2.28151
-3.22528
-2.94966
-4.30628
-4.54176
-3.37654
-1.90181
-0.89742
-1.34695
-1.51328
-1.09846
-0.1119
-0.23978
-1.43671
-0.18453
0.308545
0.460417
0.120456
0.294355
1.263576
-0.36437
-0.49572
0.678374
0.582452
0.255545
0.174066
1.008719
0.106584
-1.81096
-2.45363
-2.19126
-1.27802
-1.08415
-0.5922
-0.49016
-0.60828
-0.8164
-1.45989
-1.09232
-0.78547

10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013

82.8545
82.7724
83.0819
83.1393
83.1393
83.562
83.8229
84.1358
84.3162
84.3704
84.3046
84.3046
84.3859
84.2262
83.8545
83.6246
83.6109
83.4333
83.4333
83.4887
83.2786
83.8163
84.0809
84.067
84.3757
84.3744
84.7619
85.4238
85.4
84.9681
84.7349
84.4432
84.443
84.2717
83.8446
84.1372
84.2423
84.6379
84.4299
84.4308
PAGE 130 OF 221

0.030424
0.709215
1.297895
1.36788
0.776253
1.015938
1.168796
1.647167
1.485642
1.480768
1.401624
0.888681
0.671654
0.107445
-0.54758
-0.88396
-0.82285
-1.03351
-1.12886
-0.87562
-0.68678
0.229239
0.562128
0.759529
1.129525
1.060862
1.78113
1.917885
1.568846
1.071883
0.425715
0.081541
-0.37623
-1.34869
-1.82131
-0.9779
-0.58134
0.230569
-0.01551
0.188794

11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014

84.2267
84.1526
84.4498
84.5333
84.5734
84.4657
84.4669
84.204
84.2663
84.2199
83.6782
83.7559
83.4488
83.4494
83.3788
83.6874
84.1363
84.8984
85.1495
85.2093
85.2093
85.0133
84.7316
84.7864
84.7723
84.6528
84.5812
84.58
84.4851
84.2768
84.2436
84.4446
84.9746
84.8641
84.8653
85.0387
84.9623
84.9094
84.8264
84.7765
PAGE 131 OF 221

0.455724
0.018303
0.246313
-0.12359
0.169963
0.041336
0.285183
0.06108
-0.21729
-0.37074
-1.05849
-0.84034
-1.20532
-0.89616
-1.05321
-0.63227
0.547454
1.364083
2.038016
2.108943
2.195402
1.584348
0.707542
-0.13192
-0.44299
-0.6531
-0.73713
-0.50968
-0.29092
-0.60104
-0.62367
-0.24595
0.465115
0.335895
0.45002
0.904045
0.853121
0.55042
-0.17441
-0.10322

1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014

84.3944
84.3944
84.5961
84.6676
84.2706
84.0508
83.7817
83.5841
83.5847
83.5484
83.6465
83.4737
83.3325
83.1653
83.0371
83.0389
83.0609
83.2599
83.5829
83.977
85.1303
85.5506
85.5499
86.0141
85.8274
85.2774
85.2215
84.5235
84.0997
84.0984
84.4374
84.4717
84.1921
84.2254
84.2966
84.3164
84.3158
84.5992
84.7618
84.1548
PAGE 132 OF 221

-0.55488
-0.75766
-0.43101
-0.28477
-0.65522
-0.85602
-0.726
-0.96013
-1.19556
-1.32188
-0.74059
-0.68661
-0.53616
-0.50105
-0.65514
-0.60983
-0.70009
-0.25613
0.300483
0.976008
2.520801
3.024727
2.996596
3.307955
2.685358
1.548519
0.10713
-1.20058
-1.69515
-2.22719
-1.61953
-0.9448
-1.20791
-0.35268
0.234127
0.25922
-0.14401
0.150938
0.676667
-0.08382

2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014

84.4552
84.6503
84.3553
84.3535
84.5046
84.8669
85.3078
85.1989
84.887
84.8139
84.8133
84.9136
84.7907
84.79
84.7024

0.188145
0.396008
0.046848
-0.29043
-0.30344
0.846179
1.009529
0.648078
0.63031
0.545798
0.365306
0.055027
-0.60616
-0.47994
-0.21747

ROC- EUR/INR
8

ROC

2
ROC

-2

-4

-6

DAYS

PAGE 133 OF 221

Many traders use a value greater than zero to indicate an increase in upward momentum and a
value less than zero to indicate an increase in selling pressure. However, some of the most
valuable signals are generated when the price of the asset and the ROC are heading in opposite
directions (known as divergence).
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
Historic High of the period- 28th August 2013
Historic Low of the period- 11th September 2013
After this high and low, the RATE OF CHANGE is somewhat consistent for the past 5-6 months.
The positive value means there is enough market support to continue to drive price activity in
the direction of the current trend. A negative value suggests there is a lack of support, and
prices may begin to become stagnant or reverse.
From this, we CONCLUDE that as the ROC curve has a negative value in the end of February, the
current downward trend will reverse for some time till the formation of D which matches with
our BUY signal of Technical Analysis.

PAGE 134 OF 221

GBP/INR
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

THE ABOVE CHART SHOWS THE TREND OF INR AGAINST GBP SINCE 2004 TILL 2014.

PAGE 135 OF 221

PAGE 136 OF 221

CALCULATION OF MOVING AVG FOR GBP/INR

Date
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013

12 Days Moving
Avg.

Close
82.0632
82.7729
82.7441
82.7452
82.8072
82.9636
82.6922
81.9566
81.4902
80.9014
80.9025
81.0167
80.7179
80.9341
81.1544
81.6299
81.4686
81.4686
81.7141
81.8969
82.1451
82.185
82.5508
82.5636
82.5636
82.3994
82.2678
82.276
82.3066
82.666

PAGE 137 OF 221

82.08798333
81.975875
81.82264167
81.69016667
81.597225
81.485675
81.36109167
81.27958333
81.27460833
81.32918333
81.43615
81.57350833
81.70241667
81.856225
81.97833333
82.07111667
82.12495833
82.19479167
82.294575

24 Days Moving
Avg.

81.8952
81.91605
81.9004875
81.88064167
81.86109167
81.84023333
81.82783333

3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013

82.5614
82.5614
82.7609
82.4791
82.1984
82.7787
83.543
83.6228
83.6228
83.5724
83.1722
83.2027
83.2921
83.553
83.4033
83.4033
83.4234
82.8768
82.3216
82.1012
82.0783
81.5688
81.5688
82.053
82.5088
82.442
82.9032
83.5387
83.6533
83.6533
83.8034
83.1725
82.8948
83.058
83.2027
83.082
PAGE 138 OF 221

82.36518333
82.42055833
82.471875
82.49638333
82.46701667
82.48494167
82.56655833
82.66850833
82.781425
82.88945833
82.96159167
83.00631667
83.06720833
83.14984167
83.203375
83.28039167
83.382475
83.39065
83.28886667
83.16206667
83.03335833
82.86639167
82.732775
82.63696667
82.57169167
82.47910833
82.43743333
82.44871667
82.467875
82.53258333
82.65606667
82.74534167
82.81338333
82.93748333
83.07364167
83.15939167

81.82238333
81.84758333
81.90052917
81.96626667
82.0202625
82.09367917
82.21139167
82.32342083
82.42627083
82.50720833
82.57819167
82.65044583
82.71619583
82.7852
82.837625
82.8883875
82.92474583
82.93779583
82.9277125
82.9152875
82.90739167
82.877925
82.84718333
82.82164167
82.81945
82.814475
82.82040417
82.86455417
82.925175
82.96161667
82.97246667
82.95370417
82.92337083
82.9019375
82.90320833
82.89817917

5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013
5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013

83.082
83.566
83.5767
83.3561
83.7921
83.92
83.68
83.68
83.8512
83.3569
83.1268
83.2185
83.3806
83.2487
83.2487
83.4962
83.698
83.7771
83.9305
84.0289
84.2524
84.2524
84.0716
84.1974
84.6601
85.321
85.9886
86.0323
86.0323
86.2778
86.4078
86.8678
87.8986
88.6834
89.0602
89.0602
PAGE 139 OF 221

83.20715833
83.300825
83.35695
83.34173333
83.3533
83.375525
83.36524167
83.40753333
83.48723333
83.51214167
83.50581667
83.51719167
83.542075
83.51563333
83.4883
83.499975
83.49213333
83.480225
83.5011
83.530175
83.56360833
83.63823333
83.71696667
83.79854167
83.90516667
84.07785833
84.30618333
84.517525
84.71205
84.92044167
85.12688333
85.36345833
85.66730833
86.03655833
86.452275
86.85750833

82.889425
82.88996667
82.89719167
82.895225
82.9105875
82.95405417
83.01065417
83.0764375
83.15030833
83.2248125
83.28972917
83.33829167
83.37461667
83.40822917
83.422625
83.42085417
83.42271667
83.427875
83.43317083
83.46885417
83.52542083
83.5751875
83.61139167
83.65786667
83.72362083
83.79674583
83.89724167
84.00875
84.10209167
84.20033333
84.31399167
84.44681667
84.61545833
84.83739583
85.08462083
85.328025

6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013
6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013

89.7686
90.8841
90.7237
90.9741
90.3042
90.3504
90.3504
90.707
91.611
91.877
92.4565
92.2271
91.956
91.956
92.0344
92.1583
92.5395
92.2786
90.9606
90.6375
90.6375
90.3515
90.3452
91.4193
91.2534
90.5866
90.7991
90.7991
90.6679
89.5614
89.3434
90.3031
90.6553
90.443
90.443
90.2376
PAGE 140 OF 221

87.28321667
87.74680833
88.1414
88.55321667
88.90920833
89.24859167
89.57714167
89.897075
90.20644167
90.472575
90.7556
91.01950833
91.20179167
91.29111667
91.40034167
91.499025
91.6853
91.84598333
91.89683333
91.89104167
91.80991667
91.68279167
91.50685
91.43953333
91.38098333
91.26686667
91.163925
91.05065833
90.89469167
90.66825833
90.53349167
90.505625
90.50710833
90.51473333
90.52288333
90.42440833

85.59419167
85.91233333
86.22379167
86.53537083
86.81062917
87.08451667
87.3520125
87.63026667
87.936875
88.25456667
88.6039375
88.93850833
89.24250417
89.5189625
89.77087083
90.02612083
90.29725417
90.5472875
90.7369875
90.89405833
91.00817917
91.07768333
91.131225
91.22952083
91.2913875
91.27899167
91.28213333
91.27484167
91.28999583
91.25712083
91.2151625
91.19833333
91.1585125
91.0987625
91.01486667
90.93197083

7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013
7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013

89.3543
89.9494
90.614
90.9345
90.7857
90.7857
91.0803
91.5114
91.1413
90.7032
90.861
90.8757
90.8757
91.2729
92.2767
92.889
92.1748
92.5634
93.4076
93.4076
93.6564
94.5014
94.6783
94.754
94.1632
93.7688
93.7688
94.3611
94.9435
95.0876
95.4695
96.8713
97.8568
97.8568
98.7939
99.9277
PAGE 141 OF 221

90.26615
90.21305
90.197625
90.20890833
90.218725
90.32075
90.46549167
90.56618333
90.60668333
90.62836667
90.6632
90.716375
90.84315833
90.95345
91.09200833
91.25488333
91.37064167
91.51878333
91.712725
91.87074167
92.08033333
92.39685
92.71495833
93.03815
93.31210833
93.5201
93.64444167
93.76711667
93.99784167
94.20819167
94.38001667
94.66865833
95.01869167
95.29830833
95.641275
96.07241667

90.82356667
90.73995833
90.680775
90.62978333
90.55670833
90.49450417
90.49949167
90.53590417
90.55689583
90.57155
90.59304167
90.57039167
90.55465417
90.58325
90.64481667
90.73189583
90.79468333
90.91976667
91.08910833
91.2184625
91.34350833
91.51260833
91.68907917
91.8772625
92.07763333
92.236775
92.368225
92.511
92.68424167
92.8634875
93.04637083
93.2697
93.5495125
93.84757917
94.17811667
94.55528333

8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013
9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013

100.641
101.42
100.384
100.086
100.086
100.327
102.823
105.17
104.596
103.669
103.06
103.06
103.242
105.14
105.031
103.378
102.064
100.877
100.877
101.146
100.417
100.072
100.186
100.421
100.196
100.196
99.9889
100.303
100.32
98.8343
99.2719
99.659
99.659
99.9787
100.103
99.9486
PAGE 142 OF 221

96.61223333
97.24983333
97.8011
98.278175
98.70671667
99.14333333
99.756125
100.4476833
101.0092833
101.4936333
101.8491417
102.1101667
102.3269167
102.6369167
103.0241667
103.2985
103.4633333
103.5091667
103.347
103.0116667
102.6634167
102.3636667
102.1241667
101.90425
101.6504167
101.2384167
100.8182417
100.5619917
100.4166583
100.2464333
100.112675
99.98875833
99.92559167
99.91781667
99.9109
99.87153333

94.96217083
95.38496667
95.72277083
96.02264583
96.35227917
96.6757625
97.06807083
97.55817083
98.0139875
98.39597083
98.74520833
99.09129167
99.469575
99.943375
100.4126333
100.7883375
101.085025
101.32625
101.5515625
101.729675
101.83635
101.92865
101.9866542
102.0072083
101.9886667
101.9376667
101.9212042
101.9302458
101.9399958
101.8778
101.7298375
101.5002125
101.2945042
101.1407417
101.0175333
100.8878917

9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013
10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013

99.2418
99.7742
101.173
101.173
101.16
100.981
100.874
99.8954
98.5527
97.6548
97.6548
98.4947
98.8363
98.5857
97.727
96.8911
96.6274
96.6274
97.1994
97.643
97.9019
97.6847
98.2189
98.1924
98.1924
98.7391
98.834
98.8927
98.9101
98.9823
98.7237
98.7237
98.8785
98.3869
97.8932
98.077
PAGE 143 OF 221

99.79201667
99.75686667
99.85554167
99.92804167
99.99804167
100.1769333
100.3104417
100.3301417
100.23795
100.0442917
99.840275
99.71911667
99.685325
99.58628333
99.29911667
98.94229167
98.564575
98.201775
97.89555833
97.70785833
97.653625
97.65611667
97.703125
97.67793333
97.624275
97.63705833
97.72930833
97.89610833
98.08633333
98.282575
98.4096
98.49965833
98.58104167
98.63955833
98.61241667
98.6028

100.7212167
100.4976417
100.3368917
100.2450167
100.20735
100.2116833
100.2115583
100.15945
100.0817708
99.98105417
99.8755875
99.795325
99.73867083
99.671575
99.57732917
99.43516667
99.28130833
99.18935417
99.103
99.019
98.9457875
98.85020417
98.7717
98.698525
98.6548
98.61167083
98.5142125
98.4192
98.32545417
98.242175
98.15257917
98.10375833
98.11733333
98.1478375
98.15777083
98.14036667

11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013
11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013

98.7955
98.4957
98.4957
98.6082
98.7906
99.7873
100.303
100.781
101.079
101.077
101.344
101.548
101.309
101.269
101.207
100.834
100.834
100.58
99.9252
100.394
100.981
101.527
101.034
101.034
100.827
100.49
101.036
101.512
101.617
101.698
101.699
101.687
101.802
101.541
100.549
100.102
PAGE 144 OF 221

98.65305833
98.632775
98.60458333
98.580875
98.57091667
98.638
98.76960833
98.94105
99.124425
99.3486
99.63616667
99.92541667
100.134875
100.3659833
100.591925
100.7774083
100.9476917
101.01375
100.9822667
100.9500167
100.94185
100.97935
100.9535167
100.9106833
100.8705167
100.8056
100.79135
100.84785
100.9131
101.0062667
101.1540833
101.2618333
101.33025
101.3314167
101.291
101.2133333

98.13866667
98.13491667
98.16694583
98.23849167
98.328625
98.4602875
98.58960417
98.72035417
98.85273333
98.99407917
99.12429167
99.26410833
99.39396667
99.49937917
99.59825417
99.67914167
99.75930417
99.825875
99.8759375
99.94553333
100.0331375
100.163975
100.2948417
100.41805
100.5026958
100.5857917
100.6916375
100.8126292
100.9303958
101.0100083
101.068175
101.105925
101.13605
101.1553833
101.1222583
101.0620083

12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014
1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014

99.5321
99.5327
99.5108
100.028
100.287
100.885
101.112
101.045
101.044
100.765
100.308
100.598
101.531
101.39
101.002
101
100.921
100.745
100.79
101.14
101.711
101.728
101.729
101.854
101.808
102.018
102.218
102.164
101.964
101.965
101.899
101.932
101.724
101.798
101.258
100.778
PAGE 145 OF 221

101.105425
101.02565
100.89855
100.7748833
100.66405
100.5963
100.5473833
100.4938833
100.4307167
100.36605
100.3459667
100.3873
100.553875
100.70865
100.8329167
100.9139167
100.96675
100.9550833
100.92825
100.9361667
100.99175
101.072
101.1904167
101.2950833
101.3181667
101.3705
101.4718333
101.5688333
101.65575
101.7574167
101.8498333
101.9158333
101.9169167
101.92275
101.8835
101.7938333

100.9879708
100.915625
100.84495
100.8113667
100.788575
100.8012833
100.8507333
100.8778583
100.8804833
100.8487333
100.8184833
100.8003167
100.82965
100.86715
100.8657333
100.8444
100.8154
100.7756917
100.7378167
100.715025
100.7112333
100.719025
100.7681917
100.8411917
100.9360208
101.039575
101.152375
101.241375
101.31125
101.35625
101.3890417
101.426
101.4543333
101.497375
101.5369583
101.5444583

1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014
2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014

100.778
100.537
100.412
100.464
100.12
100.259
100.694
100.695
100.716
101.053
101.837
102.383
103.158
103.077
103.071
103.95
104.168
103.458
103.419
102.863
102.514
102.512
102.445
101.91
101.577
101.407
101.396
101.464
101.464
101.803
101.966
101.976
102.961
103.202
103.183
103.183
PAGE 146 OF 221

101.708
101.5845833
101.4340833
101.2924167
101.13875
100.9965833
100.8961667
100.7930833
100.7090833
100.647
100.69525
100.829
101.0273333
101.239
101.4605833
101.7510833
102.0884167
102.355
102.5820833
102.76275
102.9125833
103.0341667
103.0848333
103.0454167
102.9136667
102.7745
102.6349167
102.42775
102.2024167
102.0645
101.9434167
101.8695
101.90675
101.96425
102.02575
102.1318333

101.5130833
101.4775417
101.4529583
101.430625
101.39725
101.377
101.373
101.3544583
101.313
101.284875
101.289375
101.3114167
101.3676667
101.4117917
101.4473333
101.52175
101.6135833
101.6757917
101.739125
101.7779167
101.8108333
101.8405833
101.8900417
101.9372083
101.9705
102.00675
102.04775
102.0894167
102.1454167
102.20975
102.26275
102.316125
102.4096667
102.4992083
102.5552917
102.588625

2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014

103.267
103.295
103.496
103.469
103.059
102.6
102.597
102.847
102.892
103.005
103.16

102.2726667
102.43
102.605
102.7720833
102.905
102.9714167
103.024
103.0965833
103.0908333
103.0744167
103.0725

102.5931667
102.60225
102.6199583
102.5999167
102.5537083
102.5179583
102.4837083
102.4830417
102.4987917
102.5193333
102.549125

Short term Moving Avg.-GBP/INR


120
100

PRICE

80
60
Close

40

12 Days Moving Avg.


20
0

DAYS

PAGE 147 OF 221

Long term Moving Avg.-GBP/INR


120
100

PRICE

80
60
40

Close
24 Days Moving Avg.

20
0

DAYS

PAGE 148 OF 221

The above chart shows the MACD of the closing price of GBP/INR along with its Japanese
Candlestick Chart in the year starting from 1/3/2013 to 28/2/2014.

X-axis shows the DAYS and Y-axis indicates the CLOSING PRICE of the currency.

Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:

1. The C formation will take place around the price INR 103.486, according to the
Fibonacci Ratio of 61.80%.
2. So, it is advisable for the investor to sell his/her POUNDS when it reaches the above rate
i.e. 103.486 after the appearance of Bearish signal.
3. The D formation will take place around the price INR 96.350, according to the Fibonacci
Ratio of 61.80%.
4. So, it is advisable to buy POUNDS when it reaches to that point i.e. 96.350.
5. Upward penetration of a falling average indicates further rise and gives buy
signal so the chart shows buy signal on 11thOctober at point D and downward
penetration of rising average indicates the possibility of further fall so it shows
sell signal on 3rd December 2013, 27th January 2014, 17th February 2014 as per
our technical analysis.
6. In the same way, buy POUNDS on or around 24th of March, 2014 at B, so that when we
reach the point C at 103.486 we can square off the investment and earn profits.

PAGE 149 OF 221

CALCULATION OF RSI FOR GBP/INR


RSI = 100 -

100
1+RS

RS =

Average Gain per Day


Average Loss per Day

DATE

CLOSE

CHANGE

GAIN

LOSS

AVG.

AVG.

GAIN

LOSS

RS

7 DAY
RSI

3/1/2013

82.0632

3/2/2013

82.7729

0.7097

0.7097

3/3/2013

82.7441

-0.0288

0.0288

3/4/2013

82.7452

0.0011

0.0011

3/5/2013

82.8072

0.062

0.062

3/6/2013

82.9636

0.1564

0.1564

3/7/2013

82.6922

-0.2714

0.2714

3/8/2013

81.9566

-0.7356

0.7356 0.132743 0.147971 0.897084 47.28753

3/9/2013

81.4902

-0.4664

0.4664 0.031357

0.2146 0.146119 12.74903

3/10/2013

80.9014

-0.5888

0.5888 0.031357

0.2946

0.10644

9.62002

3/11/2013

80.9025

0.0011

0.0011

0 0.031357

0.2946

0.10644

9.62002

3/12/2013

81.0167

0.1142

0.1142

0 0.038814

0.2946 0.131752 11.64146

3/13/2013

80.7179

-0.2988

3/14/2013

80.9341

0.2162

0.2162

0 0.047357 0.298514 0.158643 13.69212

3/15/2013

81.1544

0.2203

0.2203

0 0.078829 0.193429 0.407533 28.95372

3/16/2013

81.6299

0.4755

0.4755

0 0.146757

3/17/2013

81.4686

-0.1613

0.2988 0.016471 0.337286 0.048835

4.65614

0.1268 1.157391 53.64771

0.1613 0.146757 0.065729 2.232775 69.06683

PAGE 150 OF 221

3/18/2013

81.4686

0.1466 0.065729 2.230385 69.04393

3/19/2013

81.7141

0.2455

0.2455

0 0.165357 0.065729 2.515757 71.55663

3/20/2013

81.8969

0.1828

0.1828

0 0.191471 0.023043 8.309361 89.25812

3/21/2013

82.1451

0.2482

0.2482

0 0.196043 0.023043

3/22/2013

82.185

0.0399

0.0399

0 0.170271 0.023043 7.389337 88.08011

3/23/2013

82.5508

0.3658

0.3658

3/24/2013

82.5636

0.0128

0.0128

0 0.156429

100

3/25/2013

82.5636

0 0.156429

100

3/26/2013

82.3994

-0.1642

0.1642 0.121357 0.023457 5.173569 83.80191

3/27/2013

82.2678

-0.1316

0.1316 0.095243 0.042257 2.253888 69.26753

3/28/2013

82.276

0.0082

0.0082

0 0.060957 0.042257 1.442529 59.05882

3/29/2013

82.3066

0.0306

0.0306

0 0.059629 0.042257 1.411089 58.52496

3/30/2013

82.666

0.3594

0.3594

0 0.058714 0.042257 1.389452 58.14941

3/31/2013

82.5614

-0.1046

0.1046 0.056886

0.0572 0.994505 49.86226

4/1/2013

82.5614

0 0.056886

0.0572 0.994505 49.86226

4/2/2013

82.7609

0.1995

0.1995

4/3/2013

82.4791

-0.2818

0.2818 0.085386

0.0552 1.546843

60.7357

4/4/2013

82.1984

-0.2807

0.2807 0.084214

0.0953 0.883676

46.9123

4/5/2013

82.7787

0.5803

0.5803

0 0.162743

0.0953

4/6/2013

83.543

0.7643

0.7643

0 0.220586

0.0953 2.314645 69.83086

4/7/2013

83.6228

0.0798

0.0798

0 0.231986 0.080357 2.886933 74.27278

4/8/2013

83.6228

0 0.231986 0.080357 2.886933 74.27278

4/9/2013

83.5724

-0.0504

0.0504 0.203486 0.087557 2.324033 69.91607

4/10/2013

83.1722

-0.4002

0.4002 0.203486 0.104471 1.947764 66.07598

4/11/2013

83.2027

0.0305

0.0305

0 0.207843 0.064371 3.228806 76.35266

4/12/2013

83.2921

0.0894

0.0894

0 0.137714 0.064371

4/13/2013

83.553

0.2609

0.2609

0.0658 0.064371 1.022193 50.54873

4/14/2013

83.4033

-0.1497

0.1497

0.0544 0.085757 0.634349 38.81358

8.50775 89.48226

0.1546 0.023043 6.709237 87.02855

0 0.085386 0.033743 2.530483 71.67526

PAGE 151 OF 221

1.70769 63.06815

2.13937 68.14647

4/15/2013

83.4033

4/16/2013

83.4234

0.0201

0.0201

0 0.057271 0.078557 0.729042 42.16449

4/17/2013

82.8768

-0.5466

0.5466 0.057271 0.099471 0.575758 36.53846

4/18/2013

82.3216

-0.5552

0.5552 0.052914 0.178786 0.295965 22.83741

4/19/2013

82.1012

-0.2204

0.2204 0.040143 0.210271

4/20/2013

82.0783

-0.0229

0.0229 0.002871 0.213543 0.013447

4/21/2013

81.5688

-0.5095

0.5095 0.002871 0.264943 0.010838 1.072172

4/22/2013

81.5688

0 0.002871 0.264943 0.010838 1.072172

4/23/2013

82.053

0.4842

0.4842

0 0.069171 0.264943 0.261081 20.70292

4/24/2013

82.5088

0.4558

0.4558

0 0.134286 0.186857 0.718654 41.81495

4/25/2013

82.442

-0.0668

0.0668 0.134286 0.117086 1.146901 53.42123

4/26/2013

82.9032

0.4612

0.4612

0 0.200171

4/27/2013

83.5387

0.6355

0.6355

0 0.290957 0.082329 3.534097 77.94489

4/28/2013

83.6533

0.1146

0.1146

0 0.307329 0.009543 32.20509 96.98841

4/29/2013

83.6533

0 0.307329 0.009543 32.20509 96.98841

4/30/2013

83.8034

0.1501

0.1501

5/1/2013

83.1725

-0.6309

0.6309 0.194486 0.099671 1.951268 66.11626

5/2/2013

82.8948

-0.2777

0.2777 0.194486

0.1298 1.498349 59.97357

5/3/2013

83.058

0.1632

0.1632

0 0.151914

0.1298 1.170372 53.92495

5/4/2013

83.2027

0.1447

0.1447

0.1298

5/5/2013

83.082

-0.1207

0.1207 0.065429 0.147043 0.444963 30.79406

5/6/2013

83.082

0 0.065429 0.147043 0.444963 30.79406

5/7/2013

83.566

0.484

0.484

0 0.113129 0.147043 0.769358 43.48232

5/8/2013

83.5767

0.0107

0.0107

0 0.114657 0.056914 2.014558 66.82764

5/9/2013

83.3561

-0.2206

0.2206 0.114657 0.048757 2.351597 70.16348

5/10/2013

83.7921

0.436

0.436

5/11/2013

83.92

0.1279

0.1279

5/12/2013

83.68

-0.24

0.0544 0.085757 0.634349 38.81358

0.19091 16.03058

0.0856 2.338451 70.04599

0.2596 0.009543 27.20359 96.45435

0.0818

0.6302 38.65784

0 0.153629 0.048757 3.150894


0 0.151229 0.048757
0.24 0.151229

PAGE 152 OF 221

1.32682

75.9088

3.10167 75.61969

0.0658 2.298307 69.68141

5/13/2013

83.68

0 0.151229

0.0658 2.298307 69.68141

5/14/2013

83.8512

0.1712

0.1712

0 0.106543

0.0658 1.619192 61.82029

5/15/2013

83.3569

-0.4943

0.4943 0.105014 0.136414 0.769819 43.49704

5/16/2013

83.1268

-0.2301

0.2301 0.105014 0.137771 0.762236

5/17/2013

83.2185

0.0917

0.0917

0 0.055829 0.137771 0.405226 28.83707

5/18/2013

83.3806

0.1621

0.1621

0 0.060714 0.137771 0.440689 30.58874

5/19/2013

83.2487

-0.1319

0.1319 0.060714 0.122329 0.496321 33.16944

5/20/2013

83.2487

0 0.060714 0.122329 0.496321 33.16944

5/21/2013

83.4962

0.2475

0.2475

0 0.071614 0.122329 0.585426 36.92546

5/22/2013

83.698

0.2018

0.2018

0 0.100443 0.051714 1.942265 66.01258

5/23/2013

83.7771

0.0791

0.0791

0 0.111743 0.018843

5/24/2013

83.9305

0.1534

0.1534

0 0.120557 0.018843 6.398029 86.48289

5/25/2013

84.0289

0.0984

0.0984

0 0.111457 0.018843 5.915087 85.53887

5/26/2013

84.2524

0.2235

0.2235

0 0.143386

100

5/27/2013

84.2524

0 0.143386

100

5/28/2013

84.0716

-0.1808

0.1808 0.108029 0.025829 4.182522 80.70438

5/29/2013

84.1974

0.1258

0.1258

0 0.097171 0.025829 3.762168 79.00116

5/30/2013

84.6601

0.4627

0.4627

0 0.151971 0.025829

5/31/2013

85.321

0.6609

0.6609

0 0.224471 0.025829 8.690819 89.68095

6/1/2013

85.9886

0.6676

0.6676

0 0.305786 0.025829 11.83905 92.21126

6/2/2013

86.0323

0.0437

0.0437

0.2801 0.025829 10.84458 91.55732

6/3/2013

86.0323

0.2801 0.025829 10.84458 91.55732

6/4/2013

86.2778

0.2455

0.2455

0 0.315171

100

6/5/2013

86.4078

0.13

0.13

0 0.315771

100

6/6/2013

86.8678

0.46

0.46

0 0.315386

100

6/7/2013

87.8986

1.0308

1.0308

0 0.368229

100

6/8/2013

88.6834

0.7848

0.7848

0 0.384971

100

6/9/2013

89.0602

0.3768

0.3768

0 0.432557

100

PAGE 153 OF 221

43.2539

5.93025 85.57051

5.88385 85.47324

6/10/2013

89.0602

0 0.432557

100

6/11/2013

89.7686

0.7084

0.7084

0 0.498686

100

6/12/2013

90.8841

1.1155

1.1155

0 0.639471

100

6/13/2013

90.7237

-0.1604

0.1604 0.573757 0.022914 25.03928 96.15965

6/14/2013

90.9741

0.2504

0.2504

0 0.462271 0.022914 20.17394 95.27721

6/15/2013

90.3042

-0.6699

0.6699 0.350157 0.118614 2.952066 74.69678

6/16/2013

90.3504

0.0462

0.0462

0 0.302929 0.118614 2.553896 71.86187

6/17/2013

90.3504

0 0.302929 0.118614 2.553896 71.86187

6/18/2013

90.707

0.3566

0.3566

6/19/2013

91.611

0.904

0.904

0 0.222457 0.118614 1.875467 65.22304

6/20/2013

91.877

0.266

0.266

0 0.260457

0.0957

6/21/2013

92.4565

0.5795

0.5795

0 0.307471

0.0957 3.212868

6/22/2013

92.2271

-0.2294

0.2294 0.307471 0.032771 9.382302 90.36822

6/23/2013

91.956

-0.2711

0.2711 0.300871

0.0715 4.207992 80.79874

6/24/2013

91.956

0 0.300871

0.0715 4.207992 80.79874

6/25/2013

92.0344

0.0784

0.0784

0 0.261129

0.0715 3.652148 78.50455

6/26/2013

92.1583

0.1239

0.1239

0 0.149686

0.0715 2.093506 67.67422

6/27/2013

92.5395

0.3812

0.3812

0 0.166143

0.0715 2.323676 69.91283

6/28/2013

92.2786

-0.2609

0.2609 0.083357 0.108771 0.766351 43.38613

6/29/2013

90.9606

-1.318

1.318 0.083357 0.264286 0.315405 23.97781

6/30/2013

90.6375

-0.3231

0.3231 0.083357 0.271714 0.306782 23.47616

7/1/2013

90.6375

0 0.083357 0.271714 0.306782 23.47616

7/2/2013

90.3515

-0.286

7/3/2013

90.3452

-0.0063

0.0063 0.054457 0.313471 0.173723 14.80101

7/4/2013

91.4193

1.0741

1.0741

0 0.153443 0.313471 0.489496 32.86317

7/5/2013

91.2534

-0.1659

0.1659 0.153443

7/6/2013

90.5866

-0.6668

0.6668 0.153443 0.206871 0.741731 42.58584

7/7/2013

90.7991

0.2125

0.2125

0 0.252671 0.118614 2.130194

0.286 0.072157 0.312571

PAGE 154 OF 221

68.0531

2.7216 73.12984
76.2632

0.23085 18.75534

0.2999 0.511647 33.84698

0.1838 0.160714 1.143644 53.35047

7/8/2013

90.7991

0.1838 0.160714 1.143644 53.35047

7/9/2013

90.6679

-0.1312

0.1312

0.1838

7/10/2013

89.5614

-1.1065

1.1065

0.1838 0.295771 0.621426 38.32589

7/11/2013

89.3434

-0.218

7/12/2013

90.3031

0.9597

0.9597

0 0.167457 0.303214 0.552273 35.57835

7/13/2013

90.6553

0.3522

0.3522

0 0.217771 0.207957 1.047194 51.15265

7/14/2013

90.443

-0.2123

0.2123 0.187414 0.238286 0.786511 44.02497

7/15/2013

90.443

0 0.187414 0.238286 0.786511 44.02497

7/16/2013

90.2376

-0.2054

0.2054 0.187414 0.248886 0.753013 42.95537

7/17/2013

89.3543

-0.8833

0.8833 0.187414

7/18/2013

89.9494

0.5951

0.5951

0 0.272429 0.185857 1.465796 59.44514

7/19/2013

90.614

0.6646

0.6646

0 0.230271 0.185857

7/20/2013

90.9345

0.3205

0.3205

0 0.225743 0.185857 1.214604

54.8452

7/21/2013

90.7857

-0.1488

0.1488 0.225743 0.176786 1.276929

56.0812

7/22/2013

90.7857

0 0.225743 0.176786 1.276929

56.0812

7/23/2013

91.0803

0.2946

0.2946

0 0.267829 0.147443 1.816491 64.49482

7/24/2013

91.5114

0.4311

0.4311

0 0.329414 0.021257 15.49664 93.93816

7/25/2013

91.1413

-0.3701

0.3701

7/26/2013

90.7032

-0.4381

0.4381 0.149457 0.136714 1.093208 52.22644

7/27/2013

90.861

0.1578

0.1578

0 0.126214 0.136714 0.923197 48.00326

7/28/2013

90.8757

0.0147

0.0147

0 0.128314 0.115457 1.111359 52.63713

7/29/2013

90.8757

0 0.128314 0.115457 1.111359 52.63713

7/30/2013

91.2729

0.3972

0.3972

0 0.142971 0.115457 1.238307 55.32338

7/31/2013

92.2767

1.0038

1.0038

0 0.224786 0.115457 1.946919 66.06626

8/1/2013

92.889

0.6123

0.6123

0 0.312257 0.062586 4.989272 83.30348

8/2/2013

92.1748

-0.7142

0.7142 0.312257 0.102029 3.060487 75.37241

8/3/2013

92.5634

0.3886

0.3886

0 0.345229 0.102029 3.383646 77.18794

8/4/2013

93.4076

0.8442

0.8442

0 0.463729 0.102029 4.545085 81.96601

0.1386 1.326118 57.00993

0.218 0.030357 0.326914

PAGE 155 OF 221

0.217

0.09286 8.496941

0.86366 46.34215

1.23897 55.33661

0.2444 0.074129 3.296974 76.72781

8/5/2013

93.4076

0 0.463729 0.102029 4.545085 81.96601

8/6/2013

93.6564

0.2488

0.2488

8/7/2013

94.5014

0.845

0.845

0 0.419843 0.102029 4.114954 80.44948

8/8/2013

94.6783

0.1769

0.1769

0 0.357643 0.102029 3.505321 77.80402

8/9/2013

94.754

0.0757

0.0757

0 0.368457

8/10/2013

94.1632

-0.5908

0.5908 0.312943

8/11/2013

93.7688

-0.3944

0.3944 0.192343 0.140743 1.366626 57.74575

8/12/2013

93.7688

0 0.192343 0.140743 1.366626 57.74575

8/13/2013

94.3611

0.5923

0.5923

0 0.241414 0.140743 1.715286 63.17147

8/14/2013

94.9435

0.5824

0.5824

8/15/2013

95.0876

0.1441

0.1441

0 0.199214 0.140743 1.415449 58.59982

8/16/2013

95.4695

0.3819

0.3819

0 0.242957 0.140743 1.726248 63.31956

8/17/2013

96.8713

1.4018

1.4018

0 0.443214 0.056343 7.866379 88.72144

8/18/2013

97.8568

0.9855

0.9855

0.584

100

8/19/2013

97.8568

0.584

100

8/20/2013

98.7939

0.9371

0.9371

0 0.633257

100

8/21/2013

99.9277

1.1338

1.1338

0 0.712029

100

8/22/2013

100.641

0.7133

0.7133

0 0.793343

100

8/23/2013

101.42

0.779

0.779

0 0.850071

100

8/24/2013

100.384

-1.036

1.036 0.649814

8/25/2013

100.086

-0.298

0.298 0.509029 0.190571 2.671064 72.75994

8/26/2013

100.086

0 0.509029 0.190571 2.671064 72.75994

8/27/2013

100.327

0.241

0.241

0 0.409586 0.190571

2.14925 68.24641

8/28/2013

102.823

2.496

2.496

0 0.604186 0.190571

3.17039 76.02143

8/29/2013

105.17

2.347

2.347

0 0.837571 0.190571 4.395052

8/30/2013

104.596

-0.574

0.574 0.726286 0.272571

8/31/2013

103.669

-0.927

0.927 0.726286

9/1/2013

103.06

-0.609

0.609 0.726286 0.301429 2.409479

0 0.442529 0.102029

PAGE 156 OF 221

4.3373 81.26394

100

0.0844 3.707854

78.7589

0.2039 0.140743 1.448741 59.16269

0.148 4.390637 81.44932

81.4645

2.66457 72.71167

0.257 2.826014 73.86314


70.67

9/2/2013

103.06

0 0.726286 0.301429 2.409479

9/3/2013

103.242

0.182

0.182

0 0.717857 0.301429 2.381517 70.42747

9/4/2013

105.14

1.898

1.898

0 0.632429 0.301429 2.098104

9/5/2013

105.031

-0.109

0.109 0.297143

9/6/2013

103.378

-1.653

1.653 0.297143 0.471143 0.630685 38.67609

9/7/2013

102.064

-1.314

1.314 0.297143 0.526429

9/8/2013

100.877

-1.187

1.187 0.297143

0.609 0.487919 32.79205

9/9/2013

100.877

0 0.297143

0.609 0.487919 32.79205

9/10/2013

101.146

0.269

0.269

0 0.309571

0.609 0.508327

9/11/2013

100.417

-0.729

0.729 0.038429 0.713143 0.053886 5.113096

9/12/2013

100.072

-0.345

0.345 0.038429 0.746857 0.051454 4.893578

9/13/2013

100.186

0.114

0.114

0 0.054714 0.510714 0.107133 9.676604

9/14/2013

100.421

0.235

0.235

0 0.088286

9/15/2013

100.196

-0.225

0.225 0.088286 0.185571 0.475751 32.23787

9/16/2013

100.196

0 0.088286 0.185571 0.475751 32.23787

9/17/2013

99.9889

-0.2071

9/18/2013

100.303

0.3141

0.3141

0 0.094729 0.111014 0.853301 46.04222

9/19/2013

100.32

0.017

0.017

0 0.097157 0.061729 1.573941 61.14907

9/20/2013

98.8343

-1.4857

1.4857 0.080871 0.273971 0.295182 22.79077

9/21/2013

99.2719

0.4376

0.4376

0 0.109814 0.273971 0.400824 28.61344

9/22/2013

99.659

0.3871

0.3871

0 0.165114 0.241829 0.682774 40.57432

9/23/2013

99.659

0 0.165114 0.241829 0.682774 40.57432

9/24/2013

99.9787

0.3197

0.3197

0 0.210786 0.212243 0.993135 49.82777

9/25/2013

100.103

0.1243

0.1243

0 0.183671 0.212243 0.865383 46.39172

9/26/2013

99.9486

-0.1544

0.1544 0.181243

9/27/2013

99.2418

-0.7068

0.7068 0.181243 0.123029 1.473177 59.56618

9/28/2013

99.7742

0.5324

0.5324

0 0.194786 0.123029 1.583256 61.28916

9/29/2013

101.173

1.3988

1.3988

0 0.339314 0.123029 2.758012 73.39019

67.7222

0.317 0.937359 48.38334

0.323

0.56445 36.07979

0.2343

33.7014

0.27333 21.46579

0.2071 0.049857 0.215157 0.231724

PAGE 157 OF 221

70.67

18.813

0.77355 43.61592

9/30/2013

101.173

0 0.339314 0.123029 2.758012 73.39019

10/1/2013

101.16

-0.013

0.013 0.293643 0.124886 2.351293 70.16077

10/2/2013

100.981

-0.179

0.179 0.275886 0.150457

10/3/2013

100.874

-0.107

0.107 0.275886 0.143686 1.920064 65.75417

10/4/2013

99.8954

-0.9786

0.9786 0.275886 0.182514 1.511584 60.18449

10/5/2013

98.5527

-1.3427

1.3427 0.199829 0.374329 0.533832 34.80381

10/6/2013

97.6548

-0.8979

0.8979

0.5026

10/7/2013

97.6548

0.5026

10/8/2013

98.4947

0.8399

0.8399

0 0.119986 0.500743 0.239615 19.32982

10/9/2013

98.8363

0.3416

0.3416

0 0.168786 0.475171

10/10/2013

98.5857

-0.2506

0.2506 0.168786 0.495686

10/11/2013

97.727

-0.8587

0.8587 0.168786 0.478557 0.352697 26.07362

10/12/2013

96.8911

-0.8359

0.8359 0.168786 0.406157 0.415568 29.35695

10/13/2013

96.6274

-0.2637

0.2637 0.168786 0.315557 0.534882

34.8484

10/14/2013

96.6274

0 0.168786 0.315557 0.534882

34.8484

10/15/2013

97.1994

0.572

0.572

10/16/2013

97.643

0.4436

0.4436

0 0.145086 0.315557 0.459776 31.49636

10/17/2013

97.9019

0.2589

0.2589

0 0.182071 0.279757

10/18/2013

97.6847

-0.2172

10/19/2013

98.2189

0.5342

0.5342

10/20/2013

98.1924

-0.0265

0.0265 0.258386 0.034814

7.42183

88.1261

10/21/2013

98.1924

0 0.258386 0.034814

7.42183

88.1261

10/22/2013

98.7391

0.5467

0.5467

0 0.254771 0.034814 7.318014

87.9779

10/23/2013

98.834

0.0949

0.0949

0 0.204957 0.034814 5.887156 85.48022

10/24/2013

98.8927

0.0587

0.0587

0 0.176357 0.034814 5.065654 83.51373

10/25/2013

98.9101

0.0174

0.0174

0 0.178843 0.003786 47.24151

10/26/2013

98.9823

0.0722

0.0722

0 0.112843 0.003786 29.80755 96.75404

10/27/2013

98.7237

-0.2586

0.2586 0.112843 0.036943 3.054524 75.33619

0 0.130514 0.315557

1.83365 64.70982

0.35521 26.21071
0.34051

25.4015

0.4136 29.25861

0.65082 39.42403

0.2172 0.182071 0.188114 0.967877 49.18381


0 0.258386

PAGE 158 OF 221

0.0687 3.761073 78.99633

97.9271

10/28/2013

98.7237

0 0.112843 0.036943 3.054524 75.33619

10/29/2013

98.8785

0.1548

0.1548

0 0.056857 0.036943 1.539056 60.61529

10/30/2013

98.3869

-0.4916

0.4916

10/31/2013

97.8932

-0.4937

0.4937 0.034914

0.1777 0.196479 16.42142

11/1/2013

98.077

0.1838

0.1838

0 0.058686

0.1777 0.330252 24.82625

11/2/2013

98.7955

0.7185

0.7185

0 0.151014

0.1777 0.849827

11/3/2013

98.4957

-0.2998

0.2998 0.151014 0.183586 0.822582 45.13278

11/4/2013

98.4957

0 0.151014 0.183586 0.822582 45.13278

11/5/2013

98.6082

0.1125

0.1125

0 0.144971 0.183586 0.789666 44.12366

11/6/2013

98.7906

0.1824

0.1824

0 0.171029 0.113357 1.508759 60.13965

11/7/2013

99.7873

0.9967

0.9967

0 0.313414 0.042829 7.317879

11/8/2013

100.303

0.5157

0.5157

0 0.360829 0.042829

11/9/2013

100.781

0.478

0.478

0 0.326471 0.042829 7.622748 88.40277

11/10/2013

101.079

0.298

0.298

0 0.369043

11/11/2013

101.077

-0.002

0.002 0.369043 0.000286

11/12/2013

101.344

0.267

0.267

0 0.391114 0.000286

1368.9

11/13/2013

101.548

0.204

0.204

1379.7 99.92757

11/14/2013

101.309

-0.239

0.239 0.251814 0.034429 7.314108 87.97225

11/15/2013

101.269

-0.04

0.04 0.178143 0.040143 4.437722 81.60995

11/16/2013

101.207

-0.062

0.062 0.109857

11/17/2013

100.834

-0.373

0.373 0.067286 0.102286 0.657821 39.67987

11/18/2013

100.834

11/19/2013

100.58

-0.254

11/20/2013

99.9252

-0.6548

11/21/2013

100.394

0.4688

0.4688

11/22/2013

100.981

0.587

0.587

0 0.150829 0.191971 0.785682

11/23/2013

101.527

0.546

0.546

0 0.228829 0.183114 1.249649 55.54862

11/24/2013

101.034

-0.493

0.493 0.228829 0.200257 1.142674 53.32934

0.0433 0.107171 0.404026 28.77623

0.3942 0.000286

0 0.067286

45.9409

87.9777

8.42495 89.38986

100

1291.65 99.92264
99.927

0.049 2.241983 69.15468

0.102 0.659664 39.74684

0.254 0.029143 0.138286 0.210744 17.40614


0.6548

0 0.231829

0 0.066971 0.197686 0.338777 25.30498

PAGE 159 OF 221

43.999

11/25/2013

101.034

0 0.228829 0.200257 1.142674 53.32934

11/26/2013

100.827

-0.207

0.207 0.228829 0.193543 1.182315

11/27/2013

100.49

-0.337

0.337 0.228829 0.148143 1.544648 60.70183

11/28/2013

101.036

0.546

0.546

0 0.239857 0.148143 1.619094 61.81885

11/29/2013

101.512

0.476

0.476

0.224 0.148143 1.512054 60.19194

11/30/2013

101.617

0.105

0.105

0.161 0.148143 1.086789 52.07948

12/1/2013

101.698

0.081

0.081

0 0.172571 0.077714 2.220588 68.94977

12/2/2013

101.699

0.001

0.001

0 0.172714 0.077714 2.222426 68.96748

12/3/2013

101.687

-0.012

0.012 0.172714 0.049857 3.464183 77.59949

12/4/2013

101.802

0.115

0.115

12/5/2013

101.541

-0.261

0.261 0.111143

12/6/2013

100.549

-0.992

0.992 0.043143 0.180714 0.238735

12/7/2013

100.102

-0.447

0.447 0.028143 0.244571

12/8/2013

99.5321

-0.5699

12/9/2013

99.5327

0.0006

0.0006

12/10/2013

99.5108

-0.0219

0.0219 0.016514

0.3274 0.050441 4.801861

12/11/2013

100.028

0.5172

0.5172

0 0.073971

0.3274 0.225936 18.42967

12/12/2013

100.287

0.259

0.259

0 0.110971 0.290114 0.382509 27.66776

12/13/2013

100.885

0.598

0.598

12/14/2013

101.112

0.227

0.227

0 0.228829 0.084543 2.706658 73.02152

12/15/2013

101.045

-0.067

0.067 0.228829

0.0127

18.018 94.74182

12/16/2013

101.044

-0.001

0.001 0.228743 0.012843

17.8109 94.68393

12/17/2013

100.765

-0.279

0.279 0.228743 0.049571 4.614409 82.18869

12/18/2013

100.308

-0.457

0.457 0.154857 0.114857 1.348259 57.41525

12/19/2013

100.598

0.29

0.29

0 0.159286 0.114857 1.386816 58.10318

12/20/2013

101.531

0.933

0.933

0 0.207143 0.114857 1.803483 64.33008

12/21/2013

101.39

-0.141

0.141 0.174714

12/22/2013

101.002

-0.388

0.388 0.174714 0.180857 0.966035

0 0.189143 0.001714 110.3333

54.1771

99.1018

0.039 2.849817 74.02474


19.2725

0.11507 10.31954

0.5699 0.016571 0.325986 0.050835 4.837566


0 0.016514 0.325986

PAGE 160 OF 221

0.1964

0.1484

0.135

0.05066 4.821689

1.32345 56.96056

1.29418 56.41144
49.1362

12/23/2013

101

-0.002

0.002 0.174714

0.181 0.965272 49.11647

12/24/2013

100.921

-0.079

0.079 0.174714 0.152429 1.146204 53.40611

12/25/2013

100.745

-0.176

0.176 0.174714 0.112286

12/26/2013

100.79

0.045

0.045

0 0.139714 0.112286 1.244275 55.44218

12/27/2013

101.14

0.35

0.35

0 0.056429 0.112286 0.502545 33.44623

12/28/2013

101.711

0.571

0.571

12/29/2013

101.728

0.017

0.017

0 0.140429 0.036714 3.824903 79.27419

12/30/2013

101.729

0.001

0.001

0 0.140571 0.036429 3.858824 79.41889

12/31/2013

101.854

0.125

0.125

0 0.158429 0.025143 6.301136

1/1/2014

101.808

-0.046

1/2/2014

102.018

0.21

0.21

1/3/2014

102.218

0.2

0.2

1/4/2014

102.164

-0.054

1/5/2014

101.964

-0.2

0.2 0.076571 0.042857 1.786667 64.11483

1/6/2014

101.965

0.001

0.001

0 0.076571 0.042857 1.786667 64.11483

1/7/2014

101.899

-0.066

0.066 0.058714 0.052286 1.122951 52.89575

1/8/2014

101.932

0.033

0.033

1/9/2014

101.724

-0.208

0.208 0.033429 0.075429 0.443182 30.70866

1/10/2014

101.798

0.074

0.074

0 0.015429 0.075429 0.204545 16.98113

1/11/2014

101.258

-0.54

0.54 0.015429 0.144857 0.106509 9.625668

1/12/2014

100.778

-0.48

0.48 0.015429 0.184857 0.083462 7.703281

1/13/2014

100.778

0 0.015286 0.184857 0.082689 7.637402

1/14/2014

100.537

-0.241

0.241 0.015286 0.209857 0.072839

1/15/2014

100.412

-0.125

0.125 0.010571 0.227714 0.046424 4.436451

1/16/2014

100.464

0.052

0.052

1/17/2014

100.12

-0.344

1/18/2014

100.259

0.139

0.139

0 0.027286

1/19/2014

100.694

0.435

0.435

0 0.089429 0.101429

0.138 0.092143 1.497674 59.96276

0.046 0.158429 0.006571


0

1.55598 60.87606

86.3035

24.1087 96.01732

0.182 0.006571 27.69565 96.51515

0 0.160571 0.006571 24.43478 96.06838


0.054

0.079 0.014286

0 0.063429 0.045714

0.018

5.53 84.68606

1.3875 58.11518

0.198 0.090909 8.333333

0.344 0.007429 0.247143 0.030058

PAGE 161 OF 221

6.78934

2.91807

0.17 0.160504 13.83056


0.88169 46.85629

1/20/2014

100.695

0.001

0.001

0 0.089571 0.101429 0.883099 46.89604

1/21/2014

100.716

0.021

0.021

0 0.092571

1/22/2014

101.053

0.337

0.337

0 0.140714 0.049143 2.863372 74.11588

1/23/2014

101.837

0.784

0.784

0 0.245286 0.049143 4.991279 83.30907

1/24/2014

102.383

0.546

0.546

0 0.323286

100

1/25/2014

103.158

0.775

0.775

0 0.414143

100

1/26/2014

103.077

-0.081

0.081

1/27/2014

103.071

-0.006

0.006 0.351857 0.012429 28.31034 96.58824

1/28/2014

103.95

0.879

0.879

0 0.474429 0.012429 38.17241 97.44718

1/29/2014

104.168

0.218

0.218

0 0.457429 0.012429

1/30/2014

103.458

-0.71

0.71 0.345429 0.113857 3.033877 75.20995

1/31/2014

103.419

-0.039

0.039 0.267429 0.119429 2.239234 69.12851

2/1/2014

102.863

-0.556

0.556 0.156714 0.198857 0.788075 44.07393

2/2/2014

102.514

-0.349

0.349 0.156714 0.237143 0.660843 39.78963

2/3/2014

102.512

-0.002

0.002 0.156714 0.236571

2/4/2014

102.445

-0.067

0.067 0.031143 0.246143 0.126524 11.23132

2/5/2014

101.91

-0.535

0.535

0 0.322571

2/6/2014

101.577

-0.333

0.333

0 0.268714

2/7/2014

101.407

-0.17

0.17

0 0.287429

2/8/2014

101.396

-0.011

0.011

0 0.209571

2/9/2014

101.464

0.068

0.068

0 0.009714 0.159714 0.060823 5.733558

2/10/2014

101.464

0 0.009714 0.159429 0.060932 5.743243

2/11/2014

101.803

0.339

0.339

0 0.058143 0.149857 0.387989

2/12/2014

101.966

0.163

0.163

0 0.081429 0.073429 1.108949 52.58303

2/13/2014

101.976

0.01

0.01

2/14/2014

102.961

0.985

0.985

0 0.223571 0.001571 142.2727 99.30203

2/15/2014

103.202

0.241

0.241

2/16/2014

103.183

-0.019

0.067 1.381663 58.01253

0.352 0.011571 30.41975 96.81729

0 0.082857 0.025857

0.258

36.8046 97.35482

0.66244 39.84744

27.9533

3.20442 76.21551

100

0.019 0.248286 0.002714 91.47368 98.91861

PAGE 162 OF 221

2/17/2014

103.183

0 0.248286 0.002714 91.47368 98.91861

2/18/2014

103.267

0.084

0.084

0 0.211857 0.002714 78.05263 98.73502

2/19/2014

103.295

0.028

0.028

0 0.192571 0.002714 70.94737

2/20/2014

103.496

0.201

0.201

0 0.219857 0.002714

2/21/2014

103.469

-0.027

0.027 0.079143 0.006571 12.04348 92.33333

2/22/2014

103.059

-0.41

0.41 0.044714 0.065143 0.686404 40.70221

2/23/2014

102.6

-0.459

0.459 0.044714

2/24/2014

102.597

-0.003

0.003 0.044714 0.128429 0.348165 25.82508

2/25/2014

102.847

0.25

0.25

0 0.068429 0.128429 0.532814 34.76052

2/26/2014

102.892

0.045

0.045

0 0.070857 0.128429 0.551724 35.55556

2/27/2014

103.005

0.113

0.113

0 0.058286 0.128429 0.453838 31.21653

2/28/2014

103.16

0.155

0.155

0 0.080429 0.124571 0.645642 39.23345

0.128

81 98.78049

0.34933 25.88916

7 Day GBP/INR
120
100

RSI

80
60
40

7 Day RSI

20
0

DAYS

PAGE 163 OF 221

98.6101

In the above chart RSI is calculated for 7 days for USD/INR.


The broad rule, if RSI crosses 70 there may be downturn & time to sell. If RSI falls
below 30 it is time to buy the share.
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:

1. Varying the time period of the Relative Strength Index can increase or decrease the

number of buy and sell signals. So, lesser the time period of RSI, higher the appearance
of signals.
2. The chart shows Overbought Regions when RSI crosses mark of 70:

a. 28thAugust , 2013 and 27th January, 2014. It gives an indication to sell.


3. The chart shows Oversold Regions when RSI crosses mark of 30:

a. 11th October,2013 , 9th December, 2013 , 16th January, 2013 and 10th March,
2014. It gives an indication to buy.
4. Since it is nearing the mark of 25, it is highly predicted that it has already reached the

Oversold Region. And thus, gives an indication to buy pounds currently and hold them
till point C is reached.
PAGE 164 OF 221

CALCULATION OF ROC FOR GBP/INR

ROC = ((Todays close Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)) * 100

DATE
3/1/2013
3/2/2013
3/3/2013
3/4/2013
3/5/2013
3/6/2013
3/7/2013
3/8/2013
3/9/2013
3/10/2013
3/11/2013
3/12/2013
3/13/2013
3/14/2013
3/15/2013
3/16/2013
3/17/2013
3/18/2013
3/19/2013
3/20/2013
3/21/2013
3/22/2013
3/23/2013
3/24/2013
3/25/2013
3/26/2013
3/27/2013
3/28/2013
3/29/2013
3/30/2013

CLOSE

ROC
82.0632
82.7729
82.7441
82.7452
82.8072
82.9636
82.6922
81.9566
81.4902
80.9014
80.9025
81.0167
80.7179
80.9341
81.1544
81.6299
81.4686
81.4686
81.7141
81.8969
82.1451
82.185
82.5508
82.5636
82.5636
82.3994
82.2678
82.276
82.3066
82.666

PAGE 165 OF 221

0.766482
-0.98619
-1.5154
-2.22829
-2.30016
-2.34669
-2.38753
-1.24761
-0.41207
0.900479
0.699731
0.557786
1.234175
1.18961
1.220759
0.68002
1.328365
1.344076
1.0396
0.613576
0.14937
0.110726
-0.29582
0.124026

3/31/2013
4/1/2013
4/2/2013
4/3/2013
4/4/2013
4/5/2013
4/6/2013
4/7/2013
4/8/2013
4/9/2013
4/10/2013
4/11/2013
4/12/2013
4/13/2013
4/14/2013
4/15/2013
4/16/2013
4/17/2013
4/18/2013
4/19/2013
4/20/2013
4/21/2013
4/22/2013
4/23/2013
4/24/2013
4/25/2013
4/26/2013
4/27/2013
4/28/2013
4/29/2013
4/30/2013
5/1/2013
5/2/2013
5/3/2013
5/4/2013
5/5/2013
5/6/2013
5/7/2013
5/8/2013
5/9/2013

82.5614
82.5614
82.7609
82.4791
82.1984
82.7787
83.543
83.6228
83.6228
83.5724
83.1722
83.2027
83.2921
83.553
83.4033
83.4033
83.4234
82.8768
82.3216
82.1012
82.0783
81.5688
81.5688
82.053
82.5088
82.442
82.9032
83.5387
83.6533
83.6533
83.8034
83.1725
82.8948
83.058
83.2027
83.082
83.082
83.566
83.5767
83.3561
PAGE 166 OF 221

-0.00266
0.196603
0.599384
0.246852
-0.13146
0.136332
1.188933
1.285589
1.041434
1.325548
1.184695
0.512209
-0.30032
-0.08347
-0.26249
-0.20234
0.302024
-0.39169
-1.16518
-1.73758
-1.58867
-2.19955
-2.22312
-0.99401
0.227401
0.415097
1.005016
2.415017
2.555511
1.950325
1.569045
0.886077
-0.01013
-0.57542
-0.53865
-0.68294
-0.86082
0.473113
0.822609
0.358906

5/10/2013
5/11/2013
5/12/2013
5/13/2013
5/14/2013
5/15/2013
5/16/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013
5/19/2013
5/20/2013
5/21/2013
5/22/2013
5/23/2013
5/24/2013
5/25/2013
5/26/2013
5/27/2013
5/28/2013
5/29/2013
5/30/2013
5/31/2013
6/1/2013
6/2/2013
6/3/2013
6/4/2013
6/5/2013
6/6/2013
6/7/2013
6/8/2013
6/9/2013
6/10/2013
6/11/2013
6/12/2013
6/13/2013
6/14/2013
6/15/2013
6/16/2013
6/17/2013
6/18/2013

83.7921
83.92
83.68
83.68
83.8512
83.3569
83.1268
83.2185
83.3806
83.2487
83.2487
83.4962
83.698
83.7771
83.9305
84.0289
84.2524
84.2524
84.0716
84.1974
84.6601
85.321
85.9886
86.0323
86.0323
86.2778
86.4078
86.8678
87.8986
88.6834
89.0602
89.0602
89.7686
90.8841
90.7237
90.9741
90.3042
90.3504
90.3504
90.707
PAGE 167 OF 221

0.70839
1.008642
0.719771
0.136419
0.328441
0.00096
-0.79399
-0.83592
-0.35779
-0.51542
-0.71853
0.167113
0.687143
0.671245
0.659506
0.937192
1.205664
0.90567
0.446367
0.501688
0.869291
1.537685
2.060713
2.112581
2.332179
2.47086
2.064373
1.812918
2.221225
3.081517
3.519492
3.224932
3.889464
4.623462
3.214044
2.583009
1.396808
1.448683
0.648111
-0.19486

6/19/2013
6/20/2013
6/21/2013
6/22/2013
6/23/2013
6/24/2013
6/25/2013
6/26/2013
6/27/2013
6/28/2013
6/29/2013
6/30/2013
7/1/2013
7/2/2013
7/3/2013
7/4/2013
7/5/2013
7/6/2013
7/7/2013
7/8/2013
7/9/2013
7/10/2013
7/11/2013
7/12/2013
7/13/2013
7/14/2013
7/15/2013
7/16/2013
7/17/2013
7/18/2013
7/19/2013
7/20/2013
7/21/2013
7/22/2013
7/23/2013
7/24/2013
7/25/2013
7/26/2013
7/27/2013
7/28/2013

91.611
91.877
92.4565
92.2271
91.956
91.956
92.0344
92.1583
92.5395
92.2786
90.9606
90.6375
90.6375
90.3515
90.3452
91.4193
91.2534
90.5866
90.7991
90.7991
90.6679
89.5614
89.3434
90.3031
90.6553
90.443
90.443
90.2376
89.3543
89.9494
90.614
90.9345
90.7857
90.7857
91.0803
91.5114
91.1413
90.7032
90.861
90.8757
PAGE 168 OF 221

0.978024
0.99248
2.383389
2.077135
1.777081
1.376961
0.462172
0.30617
0.089772
0.05584
-1.08247
-1.43384
-1.5178
-1.96054
-2.3712
-0.9312
0.321898
-0.05616
0.178293
0.495399
0.357186
-2.03228
-2.09307
-0.31296
-0.15837
-0.39218
-0.24805
0.755013
0.0122
-0.39168
-0.04556
0.543436
0.378913
0.607396
1.931636
1.736532
0.581919
-0.25436
0.082943
0.099135

7/29/2013
7/30/2013
7/31/2013
8/1/2013
8/2/2013
8/3/2013
8/4/2013
8/5/2013
8/6/2013
8/7/2013
8/8/2013
8/9/2013
8/10/2013
8/11/2013
8/12/2013
8/13/2013
8/14/2013
8/15/2013
8/16/2013
8/17/2013
8/18/2013
8/19/2013
8/20/2013
8/21/2013
8/22/2013
8/23/2013
8/24/2013
8/25/2013
8/26/2013
8/27/2013
8/28/2013
8/29/2013
8/30/2013
8/31/2013
9/1/2013
9/2/2013
9/3/2013
9/4/2013
9/5/2013
9/6/2013

90.8757
91.2729
92.2767
92.889
92.1748
92.5634
93.4076
93.4076
93.6564
94.5014
94.6783
94.754
94.1632
93.7688
93.7688
94.3611
94.9435
95.0876
95.4695
96.8713
97.8568
97.8568
98.7939
99.9277
100.641
101.42
100.384
100.086
100.086
100.327
102.823
105.17
104.596
103.669
103.06
103.06
103.242
105.14
105.031
103.378
PAGE 169 OF 221

-0.22464
-0.26062
1.245758
2.409838
1.445945
1.857152
2.786113
2.33881
1.495177
1.735835
2.716035
2.366594
0.808928
0.386692
0.120013
-0.14846
0.280106
0.35207
1.387272
3.30867
4.359659
3.704599
4.055465
5.090148
5.416913
4.695612
2.582549
2.278023
1.307874
0.399589
2.168102
3.697496
4.195888
3.579921
2.971445
2.724092
0.407496
-0.02853
0.415886
-0.2807

9/7/2013
9/8/2013
9/9/2013
9/10/2013
9/11/2013
9/12/2013
9/13/2013
9/14/2013
9/15/2013
9/16/2013
9/17/2013
9/18/2013
9/19/2013
9/20/2013
9/21/2013
9/22/2013
9/23/2013
9/24/2013
9/25/2013
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
9/28/2013
9/29/2013
9/30/2013
10/1/2013
10/2/2013
10/3/2013
10/4/2013
10/5/2013
10/6/2013
10/7/2013
10/8/2013
10/9/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/13/2013
10/14/2013
10/15/2013
10/16/2013

102.064
100.877
100.877
101.146
100.417
100.072
100.186
100.421
100.196
100.196
99.9889
100.303
100.32
98.8343
99.2719
99.659
99.659
99.9787
100.103
99.9486
99.2418
99.7742
101.173
101.173
101.16
100.981
100.874
99.8954
98.5527
97.6548
97.6548
98.4947
98.8363
98.5857
97.727
96.8911
96.6274
96.6274
97.1994
97.643
PAGE 170 OF 221

-0.96643
-2.11818
-2.29073
-3.79874
-4.39299
-3.19797
-1.84002
-0.45204
-0.67508
-0.93924
-0.42632
0.230834
0.133751
-1.58005
-0.92229
-0.53595
-0.32994
-0.32332
-0.21631
1.127443
-0.03032
0.115594
1.51918
1.194554
1.055912
1.032931
1.64467
0.121474
-2.58992
-3.47741
-3.46501
-2.46215
-2.02004
-1.31107
-0.83783
-0.78204
-1.05207
-1.89584
-1.65617
-0.95622

10/17/2013
10/18/2013
10/19/2013
10/20/2013
10/21/2013
10/22/2013
10/23/2013
10/24/2013
10/25/2013
10/26/2013
10/27/2013
10/28/2013
10/29/2013
10/30/2013
10/31/2013
11/1/2013
11/2/2013
11/3/2013
11/4/2013
11/5/2013
11/6/2013
11/7/2013
11/8/2013
11/9/2013
11/10/2013
11/11/2013
11/12/2013
11/13/2013
11/14/2013
11/15/2013
11/16/2013
11/17/2013
11/18/2013
11/19/2013
11/20/2013
11/21/2013
11/22/2013
11/23/2013
11/24/2013
11/25/2013

97.9019
97.6847
98.2189
98.1924
98.1924
98.7391
98.834
98.8927
98.9101
98.9823
98.7237
98.7237
98.8785
98.3869
97.8932
98.077
98.7955
98.4957
98.4957
98.6082
98.7906
99.7873
100.303
100.781
101.079
101.077
101.344
101.548
101.309
101.269
101.207
100.834
100.834
100.58
99.9252
100.394
100.981
101.527
101.034
101.034
PAGE 171 OF 221

0.178968
0.819064
1.647048
1.619623
1.021611
1.122559
0.952075
1.236632
0.703734
0.804441
0.541081
-0.0156
0.045025
-0.51146
-1.02811
-0.91461
0.072728
-0.23095
-0.38714
0.224928
0.916713
1.743834
1.525879
2.320203
2.622754
2.503646
2.584659
1.764453
1.002961
0.484218
0.126634
-0.24041
-0.50324
-0.95324
-1.36592
-0.86404
-0.2233
0.687268
0.198346
0.451382

11/26/2013
11/27/2013
11/28/2013
11/29/2013
11/30/2013
12/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/3/2013
12/4/2013
12/5/2013
12/6/2013
12/7/2013
12/8/2013
12/9/2013
12/10/2013
12/11/2013
12/12/2013
12/13/2013
12/14/2013
12/15/2013
12/16/2013
12/17/2013
12/18/2013
12/19/2013
12/20/2013
12/21/2013
12/22/2013
12/23/2013
12/24/2013
12/25/2013
12/26/2013
12/27/2013
12/28/2013
12/29/2013
12/30/2013
12/31/2013
1/1/2014
1/2/2014
1/3/2014
1/4/2014

100.827
100.49
101.036
101.512
101.617
101.698
101.699
101.687
101.802
101.541
100.549
100.102
99.5321
99.5327
99.5108
100.028
100.287
100.885
101.112
101.045
101.044
100.765
100.308
100.598
101.531
101.39
101.002
101
100.921
100.745
100.79
101.14
101.711
101.728
101.729
101.854
101.808
102.018
102.218
102.164
PAGE 172 OF 221

0.902475
0.095623
0.054466
-0.01477
0.577033
0.657205
0.864848
1.191163
0.758146
0.028568
-1.05101
-1.56935
-2.1307
-2.11856
-2.25064
-1.49004
-0.26057
0.782202
1.587327
1.5194
1.540737
0.736794
0.02094
-0.28448
0.414392
0.341432
-0.04157
0.233216
0.611118
0.146126
-0.72983
-0.24657
0.701966
0.720792
0.800626
1.100799
1.010021
0.868104
0.498471
0.428594

1/5/2014
1/6/2014
1/7/2014
1/8/2014
1/9/2014
1/10/2014
1/11/2014
1/12/2014
1/13/2014
1/14/2014
1/15/2014
1/16/2014
1/17/2014
1/18/2014
1/19/2014
1/20/2014
1/21/2014
1/22/2014
1/23/2014
1/24/2014
1/25/2014
1/26/2014
1/27/2014
1/28/2014
1/29/2014
1/30/2014
1/31/2014
2/1/2014
2/2/2014
2/3/2014
2/4/2014
2/5/2014
2/6/2014
2/7/2014
2/8/2014
2/9/2014
2/10/2014
2/11/2014
2/12/2014
2/13/2014

101.964
101.965
101.899
101.932
101.724
101.798
101.258
100.778
100.778
100.537
100.412
100.464
100.12
100.259
100.694
100.695
100.716
101.053
101.837
102.383
103.158
103.077
103.071
103.95
104.168
103.458
103.419
102.863
102.514
102.512
102.445
101.91
101.577
101.407
101.396
101.464
101.464
101.803
101.966
101.976
PAGE 173 OF 221

0.231006
0.10898
0.089384
-0.0843
-0.48328
-0.35825
-0.6924
-1.16412
-1.10011
-1.36856
-1.28976
-1.31044
-1.12386
-0.51499
-0.08335
0.157156
0.302753
0.58628
1.714942
2.118513
2.447018
2.365559
2.338258
2.866812
2.288952
1.049979
0.25301
-0.20761
-0.5404
-1.38336
-1.65406
-1.49626
-1.7811
-1.41547
-1.09058
-1.02232
-0.95759
-0.10499
0.382961
0.561105

2/14/2014
2/15/2014
2/16/2014
2/17/2014
2/18/2014
2/19/2014
2/20/2014
2/21/2014
2/22/2014
2/23/2014
2/24/2014
2/25/2014
2/26/2014
2/27/2014
2/28/2014

102.961
103.202
103.183
103.183
103.267
103.295
103.496
103.469
103.059
102.6
102.597
102.847
102.892
103.005
103.16

1.543453
1.712923
1.694197
1.355559
1.275916
1.293442
0.519614
0.258716
-0.12017
-0.56502
-0.6488
-0.43371
-0.5836
-0.44844
0.098002

ROC- GBP/INR
6

ROC

ROC

-2

-4

-6

DAYS

PAGE 174 OF 221

Many traders use a value greater than zero to indicate an increase in upward momentum and a
value less than zero to indicate an increase in selling pressure. However, some of the most
valuable signals are generated when the price of the asset and the ROC are heading in opposite
directions (known as divergence).
Our Technical Analysis of the above chart indicates the following:
Historic High of the period- 28th August 2013
Historic Low of the period- 12th September 2013
After this high and low, the RATE OF CHANGE is somewhat consistent for the past 5-6 months.
The positive value means there is enough market support to continue to drive price activity in
the direction of the current trend. A negative value suggests there is a lack of support, and
prices may begin to become stagnant or reverse.
From this, we CONCLUDE that as the ROC curve has a positive value in the end of February, the
current upward trend will continue for some time which matches with our BUY signal of
Technical Analysis.

PAGE 175 OF 221

OPTION TRADING STRATEGIES


An option is common form of a derivative. It's a contract, or a provision of a contract, that gives
one party (the option holder)) the right, but not the obligation to perform a specified
transaction with another party (the option issuer or option writer)) according to specified terms.
Options can be embedded into man
many kinds of contracts.

Most exchange-traded
traded options have stocks as their underlying asset but OTC-traded
OTC
options
have a huge variety of underlying assets (bonds, currencies, commodities, swaps, or baskets of
assets).

OPTIONS

PUT

CALL

There are two main types of options


options: calls and puts:
o Call options provide the holder the right (but not the obligation) to purchase an
underlying asset at a specified price (the strike price), for a certain period of time. If the
stock fails to meet the strike price before the expiration date, the option expires and
becomes worthless.
PAGE 176 OF 221

Investors buy calls when they think the share price of the underlying security will rise or
sell a call if they think it will fall. Selling an option is also referred to as ''writing'' an
option.

o Put options give the holder the right to sell an underlying asset at a specified price(the
strike price). The seller (or writer) of the put option is obligated to buy the stock at the
strike price. Put options can be exercised at any time before the option expires.
Investors buy puts if they think the share price of the underlying stock will fall, or sell
one if they think it will rise.

AMERICAN
OPTIONS

OPTIONS
(EXERCISING
STYLE)

EUROPEAN
OPTIONS

PAGE 177 OF 221

AMERICAN OPTION
It is an option that can be exercised anytime during its life. American options allow option
holders to exercise the option at any time prior to and including its maturity date, thus
increasing the value of the option to the holder.

EUROPEAN OPTION
It is an option that can only be exercised at the end of its life, at its maturity. European options
tend to sometimes trade at a discount to its comparable American option. This is because
American options allow investors more opportunities to exercise the contract.

BASIC CHARACTERISTICS

Both put and call options have three basic characteristics: EXERCISE PRICE, EXPIRATION DATE
AND TIME TO EXPIRATION.

The buyer has the right to buy or sell the asset.

To acquire the right of an option, the buyer of the option must pay a price to the seller.
This is called the option price or the premium.

The exercise price is also called the fixed price, strike price or just the strike and is
determined at the beginning of the transaction. It is the fixed price at which the holder
of the call or put can buy or sell the underlying asset.

PAGE 178 OF 221

Exercising is using this right the option grants you to buy or sell the underlying asset.
The seller may have a potential commitment to buy or sell the asset if the buyer
exercises his right on the option.

The expiration date is the final date that the option holder has to exercise her right to
buy or sell the underlying asset.

Time to expiration is the amount of time from the purchase of the option until the
expiration date. At expiration, the call holder will pay the exercise price and receive the
underlying securities (or an equivalent cash settlement) if the option expires in the
money. The call seller will deliver the securities at the exercise price and receive the
cash value of those securities or receive equivalent cash settlement in lieu of delivering
the securities.

Defaults on over-the counter option transactions are based on counterparties, while


exchange-traded options use a clearing house.

MECHANISM: CALL AND PUT


CALL OPTION

LONG CALL
An investor typically 'buys a call' when he expects the price of the underlying instrument will go
above the call's 'strike price,' hopefully significantly so, before the call expires.

The investor pays a non-refundable premium for the legal right to exercise the call at the strike
price, meaning he can purchase the underlying instrument at the strike price.

PAGE 179 OF 221

Typically, if the price of the underlying instrument has surpassed the strike price, the buyer
pays the strike price to actually purchase the underlying instrument, and then sells the
instrument and pockets the profit. Of course, the investor can also hold onto the underlying
instrument, if he feels it will continue to climb even higher.

SHORT CALL
An investor typically 'writes a call' when he expects the price of the underlying instrument to
stay below the call's strike price.
The writer (seller) receives the premium up front as his or her profit.
However, if the call buyer decides to exercise his option to buy, then the writer has the
obligation to sell the underlying instrument at the strike price.
Often the writer of the call does not actually own the underlying instrument, and must
purchase it on the open market in order to be able to sell it to the buyer of the call. The seller of
the call will lose the difference between his purchase price of the underlying instrument and
the strike price. This risk can be huge if the underlying instrument skyrockets unexpectedly in
price.

PAGE 180 OF 221

PUT OPTION
LONG PUT
A buyer thinks the price of a stock will decrease.
He pays a premium which he will never get back.
The buyer has the right to sell the stock at the strike price.
Payoff diagram will be as follows:

SHORT PUT

PAGE 181 OF 221

The writer receives a premium from the buyer. If the buyer exercises his option, the writer will
buy the stock at the strike price. If the buyer does not exercise his option, the writer's profit is
the premium.

PAGE 182 OF 221

[A]
COMBINATIONS

OPTIONS
TRADING
STRATEGIES

[B]
SPREADS

COMBINATIONS STRATEGIES
SHORT STRADDLE (SELL STRADDLE)
The short straddle - a.k.a. sell straddle or naked straddle sale - is a neutral options strategy that
involves the simultaneous selling of a put and a call of the same underlying asset, striking
price and expiration date.

Short straddles are limited profit, unlimited risk options trading strategies that are used when
the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience little volatility in the
near term.

PAGE 183 OF 221

LIMITED PROFIT

Maximum profit for the short straddle is achieved when the underlying stock price on
expiration date is trading at the strike price of the options sold. At this price, both options
expire worthless and the options trader gets to keep the entire initial credit taken as profit.

The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Net Premium Received - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Call/Put

PAGE 184 OF 221

UNLIMITED RISK
Large losses for the short straddle can be incurred when the underlying stock price makes a
strong move either upwards or downwards at expiration, causing the short call or the short put
to expire deep in the money.
The formula for calculating loss is given below:

Maximum Loss = Unlimited

Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium
Received OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received

Loss = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Short Call - Net Premium Received OR Strike
Price of Short Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Received + Commissions Paid

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short straddle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium Received

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received

PAGE 185 OF 221

OPTION STRADDLE (LONG STRADDLE)


The long straddle, also known as buy straddle or simply "straddle", is a neutral strategy in
options trading that involve the simultaneously buying of a put and a call of the
same underlying stock, striking price and expiration date.

Long straddle options are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used
when the options trader thinks that the underlying securities will experience significant
volatility in the near term.

UNLIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


By having long positions in both call and put options, straddles can achieve large profits no
matter which way the underlying stock price heads, provided the move is strong enough.
The formula for calculating profit is given below:

Maximum Profit = Unlimited

Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium
Paid OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid

Profit = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Long Call - Net Premium Paid OR Strike
Price of Long Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Paid

PAGE 186 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for long straddles occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration date is
trading at the strike price of the options bought. At this price, both options expire worthless
and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Call/Put

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the long straddle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium Paid

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid

PAGE 187 OF 221

SHORT STRANGLE (SELL STRANGLE)


The short strangle, also known as sell strangle, is a neutral strategy in options trading that
involve the simultaneous selling of a slightly out-of-the-money put and a slightly out-of-themoney call of the same underlying stock and expiration date.

The short strangle option strategy is a limited profit, unlimited risk options trading strategy that
is taken when the options trader thinks that the underlying stock will experience little volatility
in the near term. Short strangles are credit spreads as a net credit is taken to enter the trade.

LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the short strangle occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration
date is trading between the strike prices of the options sold. At this price, both options expire
worthless and the options trader gets to keep the entire initial credit taken as profit.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Net Premium Received - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying is in between the Strike Price of the
Short Call and the Strike Price of the Short Put

PAGE 188 OF 221

UNLIMITED RISK
Large losses for the short strangle can be experienced when the underlying stock price makes a
strong move either upwards or downwards at expiration.
The formula for calculating loss is given below:

Maximum Loss = Unlimited

Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium
Received OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received

Loss = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Short Call - Net Premium Received OR Strike
Price of Short Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Received + Commissions Paid

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short strangle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Call + Net Premium Received

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Short Put - Net Premium Received

PAGE 189 OF 221

OPTION STRANGLE (LONG STRANGLE)


The long strangle, also known as buy strangle or simply "strangle", is a neutral strategy in
options trading that involve the simultaneous buying of a slightly out-of-the-money put and a
slightly out-of-the-money call of the same underlying stock and expiration date.

The long options strangle is an unlimited profit, limited risk strategy that is taken when the
options trader thinks that the underlying stock will experience significant volatility in the near
term. Long strangles are debit spreads as a net debit is taken to enter the trade.

UNLIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


Large gains for the long strangle option strategy are attainable when the underlying stock price
makes a very strong move either upwards or downwards at expiration.
The formula for calculating profit is given below:

Maximum Profit = Unlimited

Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium
Paid OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid

Profit = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Long Call - Net Premium Paid OR Strike
Price of Long Put - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Paid

PAGE 190 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the long strangles options strategy is hit when the underlying stock price on
expiration date is trading between the strike prices of the options bought. At this price, both
options expire worthless and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the
trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying is in between Strike Price of Long Call and
Strike Price of Long Put

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the long strangle position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Call + Net Premium Paid

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium Paid

PAGE 191 OF 221

STRIP
The strip is a modified, more bearish version of the common straddle. It involves buying a
number of at-the-money calls and twice the number of puts of the same underlying
stock, striking price and expiration date.

Strips are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used when the
options trader thinks that the underlying stock price will experience significant volatility in the
near term and is more likely to plunge downwards instead of rallying.

UNLIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


Large profit is attainable with the strip strategy when the underlying stock price makes a strong
move either upwards or downwards at expiration, with greater gains to be made with a
downward move.
The formula for calculating profit is given below:

Maximum Profit = Unlimited

Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Calls/Puts + Net Premium
Paid OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Calls/Puts - (Net Premium Paid/2)

Profit = Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Calls - Net Premium Paid OR 2 x (Strike
Price of Puts - Price of Underlying) - Net Premium Paid

PAGE 192 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the strip occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration date is trading
at the strike price of the call and put options purchased. At this price, all the options expire
worthless and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Calls/Puts

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the strip position. The breakeven points can be calculated
using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Calls/Puts + Net Premium Paid

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Calls/Puts - (Net Premium Paid/2)

PAGE 193 OF 221

STRAP
The strap is a modified, more bullish version of the common straddle. It involves buying a
number of at-the-money puts and twice the number of calls of the same underlying
stock, striking price and expiration date.

Straps are unlimited profit, limited risk options trading strategies that are used when the
options trader thinks that the underlying stock price will experience significant volatility in the
near term and is more likely to rally upwards instead of plunging downwards.

UNLIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


Large profit is attainable with the strap strategy when the underlying stock price makes a strong
move either upwards or downwards at expiration, with greater gains to be made with an
upward move.
The formula for calculating profit is given below:

Maximum Profit = Unlimited

Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying > Strike Price of Calls/Puts + (Net Premium
Paid/2) OR Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Calls/Puts - Net Premium Paid

Profit = 2 x (Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Calls) - Net Premium Paid OR Strike
Price of Puts - Price of Underlying - Net Premium Paid

PAGE 194 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the strap occurs when the underlying stock price on expiration date is trading
at the strike price of the call and put options purchased. At this price, all the options expire
worthless and the options trader loses the entire initial debit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Calls/Puts

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the strap position. The breakeven points can be calculated
using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Calls/Puts + (Net Premium Paid/2)

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Calls/Puts - Net Premium Paid

PAGE 195 OF 221

SPREAD STRATEGIES
BUTTERFLY SPREAD
The butterfly spread is a neutral strategy that is a combination of a bull spread and a bear
spread. It is a limited profit, limited risk options strategy. There are 3 striking prices involved in
a butterfly spread and it can be constructed using calls or puts.

Butterfly Spread Construction


Buy
Sell
Buy

1
2
1

ITM

Call

ATM

Calls

OTM

Call

LONG CALL BUTTERFLY


Long butterfly spreads are entered when the investor thinks that the underlying stock will not
rise or fall much by expiration. Using calls, the long butterfly can be constructed by buying one
lower striking in-the-money call, writing two at-the-money calls and buying another higher
striking out-of-the-money call. A resulting net debit is taken to enter the trade.

LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the long butterfly spread is attained when the underlying stock price
remains unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the lower striking call expires in the money.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

PAGE 196 OF 221

Max Profit = Strike Price of Short Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call - Net
Premium Paid - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Calls

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the long butterfly spread is limited to the initial debit taken to enter the
trade plus commissions.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call OR
Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the butterfly spread position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call - Net Premium Paid

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call + Net Premium Paid

PAGE 197 OF 221

SHORT BUTTERFLY
The short butterfly is a neutral strategy like the long butterfly but bullish on volatility. It is a
limited profit, limited risk options trading strategy. There are 3 striking prices involved in a short
butterfly spread and it can be constructed using calls or puts.

Short Butterfly Construction


Sell

ITM

Call

Buy

ATM

Calls

Sell

OTM

Call

SHORT CALL BUTTERFLY


Using calls, the short butterfly can be constructed by writing one lower striking in-the-money
call, buying two at-the-money calls and writing another higher striking out-of-the-money call,
giving the trader a net credit to enter the position.

LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the short butterfly is obtained when the underlying stock price rally pass
the higher strike price or drops below the lower strike price at expiration.
If the stock ends up at the lower striking price, all the options expire worthless and the short
butterfly trader keeps the initial credit taken when entering the position.
However, if the stock price at expiry is equal to the higher strike price, the higher striking call
expires worthless while the "profits" of the two long calls owned is canceled out by the "loss"
incurred from shorting the lower striking call. Hence, the maximum profit is still only the initial
credit taken.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Net Premium Received - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Short
Call OR Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Call
PAGE 198 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the short butterfly is incurred when the stock price of the underlying stock
remains unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the lower striking call which was shorted
expires in-the-money. The trader will have to buy back the call at its intrinsic value.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Strike Price of Long Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Short Call - Net
Premium Received + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Calls

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short butterfly position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Short Call - Net Premium
Received

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Short Call + Net Premium
Received

PAGE 199 OF 221

LONG PUT BUTTERFLY


The long put butterfly spread is a limited profit, limited risk options trading strategy that is
taken when the options trader thinks that the underlying security will not rise or fall much by
expiration.
There are 3 striking prices involved in a long put butterfly spread and it is constructed by buying
one lower striking put, writing two at-the-money puts and buying another higher striking put
for a net debit.

LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum gain for the long put butterfly is attained when the underlying stock price remains
unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the highest striking put expires in the money.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Put - Strike Price of Short Put - Net
Premium Paid - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Short Put

PAGE 200 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the long put butterfly is limited to the initial debit taken to enter the trade
plus commissions.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Put OR
Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Put

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the long put butterfly position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Long Put - Net Premium Paid

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Long Put + Net Premium Paid

PAGE 201 OF 221

SHORT PUT BUTTERFLY


The short put butterfly is a neutral strategy like the long put butterfly but bullish on volatility. It
is a limited profit, limited risk options strategy. There are 3 striking prices involved in a short put
butterfly and it can be constructed by writing one lower striking out-of-the-money put, buying
two at-the-money puts and writing another higher striking in-the-money put, giving the options
trader a net credit to put on the trade.

LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit is attained for the short put butterfly when the underlying stock price rally
pass the higher strike price or drops below the lower strike price at expiration.
If the stock ends up at the higher striking price, all the put options expire worthless and the
short put butterfly trader keeps the initial credit taken when entering the trade.
If, instead, the stock price at expiry is equal to the lower strike price, the lower striking put
option expires worthless while the "profits" of the remaining long put is canceled out by the
"loss" incurred from shorting the higher strike put. So the maximum profit is still only the initial
credit taken.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Net Premium Received - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Short
Put OR Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Put

PAGE 202 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the short put butterfly is incurred when the price of the underlying asset
remains unchanged at expiration. At this price, only the higher striking put which was shorted
expires in-the-money. The trader will have to buy back that put option at its intrinsic value to
exit the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Put - Strike Price of Long Put - Net
Premium Received + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying = Strike Price of Long Put

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short put butterfly position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Short Put - Net Premium
Received

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Short Put + Net Premium
Received
PAGE 203 OF 221

CONDOR OPTIONS
The condor option strategy is a limited risk, non-directional option trading strategy that is
structured to earn a limited profit when the underlying security is perceived to have little
volatility.
Condor Construction
Sell 1 ITM Call
Buy 1 ITM Call (Lower Strike)
Sell 1 OTM Call
Buy 1 OTM Call (Higher Strike)

Using call options expiring on the same month, the trader can implement a long condor option
spread by writing a lower strike in-the-money call, buying an even lower striking in-the-money
call, writing a higher strike out-of-the-money call and buying another even higher striking outof-the-money call. A total of 4 legs are involved in the condor options strategy and a net debit is
required to establish the position.

LIMITED PROFIT
Maximum profit for the long condor option strategy is achieved when the stock price falls
between the 2 middle strikes at expiration. It can be derived that the maximum profit is equal
to the difference in strike prices of the 2 lower striking calls less the initial debit taken to enter
the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Strike Price of Lower Strike Short Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call
- Net Premium Paid - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying is in between the Strike Prices of the 2
Short Calls

PAGE 204 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
The maximum possible loss for a long condor option strategy is equal to the initial debit taken
when entering the trade. It happens when the underlying stock price on expiration date is at or
below the lowest strike price and also occurs when the stock price is at or above the highest
strike price of all the options involved.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Net Premium Paid + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call OR
Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Long Call

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the condor position. The breakeven points can be calculated
using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Long Call - Net Premium
Received

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Long Call + Net Premium
Received
PAGE 205 OF 221

SHORT CONDOR
The short condor is a neutral strategy similar to the short butterfly. It is a limited risk, limited
profit trading strategy that is structured to earn a profit when the underlying stock is perceived
to be making a sharp move in either direction.

Using calls, the options trader can setup a short condor by combining a bear call spread and
a bull call spread. The trader enters a short call condor by buying a lower strike in-the-money
call, selling an even lower striking in-the-money call, buying a higher strike out-of-the-money
call and selling another even higher striking out-of-the-money call. A total of 4 legs are involved
in this trading strategy and a net credit is received on entering the trade.

LIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


The maximum possible profit for a short condor is equal to the initial credit received upon
entering the trade. It happens when the underlying stock price on expiration date is at or below
the lowest strike price and also occurs when the stock price is at or above the highest strike
price of all the options involved.
The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Net Premium Received - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Lower Strike Short
Call OR Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Higher Strike Short Call

PAGE 206 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss is suffered when the underlying stock price falls between the 2 middle strikes
at expiration. It can be derived that the maximum loss is equal to the difference in strike
prices of the 2 lower striking calls less the initial credit taken to enter the trade.
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Strike Price of Lower Strike Long Call - Strike Price of Lower Strike Short Call Net Premium Received + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying is in between the Strike Prices of the 2 Long
Calls

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
There are 2 break-even points for the short condor position. The breakeven points can be
calculated using the following formulae.

Upper Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Highest Strike Short Call - Net Premium Paid

Lower Breakeven Point = Strike Price of Lowest Strike Short Call + Net Premium Paid

PAGE 207 OF 221

NEUTRAL CALENDAR SPREAD


The neutral calendar spread strategy involves buying long term calls and simultaneously writing
an equal number of near-month at-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money calls of the
same underlying security with the same strike price.
Neutral Calendar Spread Construction
Sell 1 Near-Term ATM Call
Buy 1 Long-Term ATM Call
The options trader applying this strategy is neutral towards the underlying for the short term
and is selling the near month calls to profit from their rapid time decay.

LIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


The maximum possible profit for the neutral calendar spread is limited to the premiums
collected from the sale of the near month options minus any time decay of the longer term
options. This happens if the underlying stock price remains unchanged on expiration of the near
month options.

LIMITED DOWNSIDE RISK


The maximum possible loss for the neutral calendar spread is limited to the initial debit taken
to put on the spread. It occurs when the stock price goes down and stays down until expiration
of the longer term options.

PAGE 208 OF 221

CALENDAR STRADDLE
The calendar straddle is implemented by selling a near term straddle while buying a longer term
straddle with the intention to profit from the rapid time decay of the near term options sold. It
is a limited profit, limited risk strategy entered by the options trader who thinks that the
underlying price will experience very little volatility in the near term.

Calendar Straddle Construction


Sell Near-Term Straddle
Buy Long-Term Straddle

LIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


Maximum gain for the calendar straddle is earned when the stock is trading at the strike price
of the options sold on expiration of the near term straddle. At this price, both the written
options expire worthless while the longer term straddle being held will suffer only a small loss
due to time decay.
Note that maximum profit is limited only on or before expiry of the near term straddle as the
options trader has the option of holding on to the longer term straddle to switch to the long
straddle strategy which has unlimited profit potential.

PAGE 209 OF 221

LIMITED RISK
Maximum loss for the calendar straddle is limited and is incurred when the stock price had
moved drastically in either direction on expiration of the near term straddle. At this price, both
the near-term straddle sold and the long term straddle held will be almost equal in value. The
options trader will typically sell the long term straddle to buy back the near term straddle and
thus the maximum loss is equal to the initial debit taken to enter the trade.

PAGE 210 OF 221

THE COLLAR STRATEGY


A collar is an options trading strategy that is constructed by holding shares of the underlying
stock while simultaneously buying protective puts and selling call options against that holding.
The puts and the calls are both out-of-the-money options having the same expiration month
and must be equal in number of contracts.

Collar Strategy Construction

Long 100 Shares


Sell 1 OTM Call
Buy 1 OTM Put

Technically, the collar strategy is the equivalent of an out-of-the-money covered call


strategy with the purchase of an additional protective put.

The collar is a good strategy to use if the options trader is writing covered calls to
earn premiums but wish to protect him from an unexpected sharp drop in the price of the
underlying security.

PAGE 211 OF 221

LIMITED PROFIT POTENTIAL


The formula for calculating maximum profit is given below:

Max Profit = Strike Price of Short Call - Purchase Price of Underlying + Net Premium
Received - Commissions Paid

Max Profit Achieved When Price of Underlying >= Strike Price of Short Call

LIMITED RISK
The formula for calculating maximum loss is given below:

Max Loss = Purchase Price of Underlying - Strike Price of Long Put - Net Premium
Received + Commissions Paid

Max Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying <= Strike Price of Long Put

PAGE 212 OF 221

BREAKEVEN POINT(S)
The underlying price at which break-even is achieved for the collar strategy position can be
calculated using the following formula.

Breakeven Point = Purchase Price of Underlying + Net Premium Paid

SUMMARY OF ALL STRATEGIES


TYPE

CALL

PUT

EXERCISE EXPIRY UNDERLYING


PRICE
PERIOD
ASSET

1
2
3

STRIPS
STRAPS
LONG STRADDLE

BUY 1
BUY 2
BUY 1

BUY 2
BUY 1
BUY 1

SAME
SAME
SAME

SAME
SAME
SAME

SAME
SAME
SAME

SHORT STRADDLE

SAME

SAME

LONG STRANGLE

SELL
1
BUY 1

SAME

SELL
1
BUY 1

DIFFERENT

SAME

SAME

SHORT STRANGLE SELL


1

SELL
1

DIFFERENT

SAME

SAME

SR.
NO.

PAGE 213 OF 221

EXPECTATION
DOWNWARD TREND
UPWARD TREND
HIGH UNCERTAINTY
& VOLATILITY
HIGH STABILITY
HIGH UNCERTAINTY
& VOLATILITY
HIGH STABILITY

BUTTERFLY SPREAD

1 BUTTERFLY(CALL)

BUTTERFLY

SPREAD

BUY 1

LOW

SAME

SAME STABILITY

BUY 1

HIGH

SELL 2

AVERAGE
SAME

SAME VOLATILITY

SAME

SAME STABILITY

SAM E

SAME VOLATILITY

2 REVERSE BUTTERFLY (CALL) SELL 1

LOW

SELL 1

HIGH

BUY 2

AVERAGE

3 BUTTERFLY(PUT)

BUY 1

LOW

BUY 1

HIGH

SELL 2 AVERAGE
4 REVERSE BUTTERFLY(PUT)

SELL 1 LOW
SELL 1 HIGH
BUY 2

AVERAGE

PAGE 214 OF 221

CONDOR SPREAD

CONDOR SPREAD
1 LONG
CONDOR
(CALL)

2 SHORT
/REVERSE
CONDOR
(CALL)

3 LONG
CONDOR
(PUT)

BUY 1
(ITM)

LOW

BUY 1
(OTM)
SELL 2
(ITM & OTM)

HIGH

SELL 1
(ITM)

LOW

SELL 1
(OTM)
BUY 2
(ITM & OTM)

HIGH

SAME SAME LOW VOLATILITY


(STABILITY)

2 MIDDLE
PRICES
SAME SAME VOLATILITY

2 MIDDLE
PRICES
BUY 1 (ITM)

LOW

SAME SAME LOW


VOLATILITY
(STABILITY)

BUY 1
HIGH
(OTM)
SELL 2
2 MIDDLE
(ITM & OTM) PRICES
4 SHORT/REVERSE
CONDOR
(PUT)

SELL 1 (ITM)

LOW

SELL 1
HIGH
(OTM)
BUY 2
2 MIDDLE
(ITM & OTM) PRICES

PAGE 215 OF 221

SAME SAME VOLATILITY

REAL TIME USAGE OF OPTIONS


STRATEGIES
USD/INR
STRAPS
PREMIUM
EXERCISE PRICE
LOT SIZE

BUY 2 CALLS
0.62

BUY 1 PUT
0.47

1710

GAIN FROM CALL


0
0
0
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000

GAIN FROM PUT


4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
0
0
0

NET GAIN/LOSS
2290
1290
290
-710
-1710
290
2290
4290
6290

LONG STRADDLE

BUY 1 CALL

BUY 1 PUT

PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
EXERCISE PRICE

0.62

0.47

1090

GAIN FROM CALL


0
0
0
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000

GAIN FROM PUT


4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
0
0
0

NET GAIN/LOSS
2910
1910
910
-90
-1090
-90
910
1910
2910

60
1000
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

1000
60
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

PAGE 216 OF 221

LONG STRANGLE
PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
EXERCISE PRICE

BUY 1 CALL
2.1275

BUY 1 PUT
0.1575

2285

59
GAIN FROM CALL
0
0
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000

61
GAIN FROM PUT
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
0
0

NET GAIN/LOSS
2715
1715
715
-285
-285
-285
715
1715
2715

1000
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

REVERSE BUTTERFLY- CALL


AND PUT
PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
1000
EXERCISE PRICE
SPOT
PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

SELL 1 CALL

SELL 1 CALL

BUY 2 CALLS

2.1275

0.2475

0.62

1135

59
61
60
GAIN FROM GAIN FROM GAIN FROM NET
CALL 1
CALL 2
CALL 3
GAIN
0
0
0
1135
0
0
0
1135
0
0
0
1135
0
0
0
1135
-1000
0
0
135
-2000
0
2000
1135
-3000
-1000
4000
1135
-4000
-2000
6000
1135
-5000
-3000
8000
1135

PAGE 217 OF 221

REVERSE BUTTERFLY- CALL


AND PUT
PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
1000
EXERCISE PRICE
SPOT
PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

BULLISH COLLAR
PREMIUM
LOT SIZE
EXERCISE PRICE

SELL 1 PUT

SELL 1 PUT

BUY 2 PUTS

0.1575

1.1

0.47

317.5

59
61
60
GAIN FROM GAIN FROM GAIN FROM NET
CALL 1
CALL 2
CALL 3
GAIN
-3000
-5000
8000
317.5
-2000
-4000
6000
317.5
-1000
-3000
4000
317.5
0
-2000
2000
317.5
0
-1000
0
-682.5
0
0
0
317.5
0
0
0
317.5
0
0
0
317.5
0
0
0
317.5

BUY 1 CALL
2.1275

SELL 1 CALL
0.2475

-1880

59
GAIN FROM CALL
0
0
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000

61
GAIN FROM PUT
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1000
-2000
-3000

NET GAIN/LOSS
-1880
-1880
-1880
-1880
-880
120
120
120
120

1000
SPOT PRICE
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

PAGE 218 OF 221

CONCLUSION
We would now readdress our objective that any analysis is thoroughly possible from
FUNDAMENTAL as well TECHNICAL perspective .The project deals with a detailed study of the
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS through the use of JAPANESE CANDLE-STICKS and OPTION STRATEGIES. It
always has two movements of BULLISH and BEARISH TRENDS followed in a cyclical pattern.
The detailed study of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS helps an investor to buy or sell stock at the right
time. The indicators add an extra confidence on the position (Buy or Sell) of the Investor. The
expertise of TECHNICAL study helps analysts and chartists to form a decision of buy or sell for
their corporate investors as well.
The risk of the investors is minimized and the position of an investor is covered and protected
by the use of various option strategies. Thus, Expert knowledge of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and
OPTION STRATEGIES helps an investor to make a DECISION that will optimize his profits.

PAGE 219 OF 221

REFERENCES
BIBLIOGRAPHY AND WEBOGRAPHY
REFERENCE BOOK:
IN THE WONDERLAND OF INVESTMENT BY A.N.SHANBHAG AND SANDEEP SHANBHAG
PART II, CHAPTER 22, Pg No. 244-261

WEBSITES:

www.netdania.com

www.nseindia.com

www.investopedia.com

www.wikipedia.com

www.oanda.com

www.rbi.org.in

www.optioneducation.org

www.optionsplaybook.com

www.theoptionsguide.com

www.moneycontrol.com

www.stockchart.com

www.candlestickforum.com

PAGE 220 OF 221

LINKS:

http://www.optionseducation.org/getting_started/options_overview.html

http://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/live_index_watch.htm

http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/otherlinks.aspx

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocksmarketsindia/

http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/realtime-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c#

PAGE 221 OF 221