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From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

Subject: Braley leads Ernst by 1 in Iowa Senate race, voters disagree with Ernst on EPA

Date: October 17, 2014
Public Policy Polling’s newest Iowa survey finds Bruce Braley retaking a small lead in
the race for the first time since May. He is at 48% to 47% for Joni Ernst with just 5% of
voters remaining undecided. Ernst had held a 2 point lead on PPP’s previous two polls of
the race.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Braley is leading Ernst based on a 46/42 advantage with independent voters, erasing a
44/34 lead Ernst had with them three weeks ago. This is a race where independents truly
will make the difference because both candidates are up by an identical spread within
their own party- 83/15 for Braley with Democrats, 83/15 for Ernst with Republicans.
-One stance that may be causing Ernst a lot of trouble is her support for shutting down
the Environmental Protection Agency, which the League of Conservative Voters has been
spotlighting in its latest television ads. Only 29% of voters agree with Ernst’s position in
regards to the EPA, with 54% saying they oppose her on that issue. Both Democrats
(78/14) and independents (60/24) overwhelmingly dissent from Ernst on the issue, and
even within her own party just 47% of Republicans agree with her.
-Ernst and Braley now have nearly identical favorability ratings, with Ernst’s at 48% and
Braley’s at 47%. This represents progress for Braley- on our last poll in late September,
Ernst had a favorability rating 5 points higher than his.
PPP interviewed 714 likely voters on October 15th and 16th on behalf of the League of
Conservation Voters. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3.6%.
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Iowa Survey Results
Q1

The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni
Ernst. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?

Q5

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%

Bruce Braley ................................................... 48%
Joni Ernst........................................................ 47%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q2

Someone else / Don't remember .................... 7%

Q6

Man................................................................. 47%

Q7

Unfavorable .................................................... 46%

Q3

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.

Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Democrat ........................................................ 36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joni Ernst?

Republican...................................................... 37%

Favorable........................................................ 48%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%

Independent / Other........................................ 27%

Q8

Would you support or oppose shutting down
the Environmental Protection Agency?
Support ........................................................... 29%
Oppose ........................................................... 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

October 15-16, 2014
Survey of 714 likely voters

If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White .............................................................. 90%

Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q4

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 53%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable........................................................ 47%

In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Other............................................................... 10%

Q9

If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 44%
Older than 65 .................................................. 30%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Senate

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Braley Favorability

Bruce Braley 48%

85%

10%

43%

Favorable 47%

84%

12%

33%

Joni Ernst 47%

10%

86%

41%

Unfavorable 46%

11%

81%

55%

4%

4%

16%

6%

7%

12%

Undecided

5%

Not sure

7%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
Ernst Favorability

Barack
Mitt Someone else /
Base Obama Romney Don't remember
EPA Shutdown

Favorable 48%

15%

82%

41%

Support 29%

11%

47%

27%

Unfavorable 47%

81%

14%

38%

Oppose 54%

81%

27%

54%

4%

4%

20%

Not sure 17%

8%

26%

19%

Not sure

5%

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Senate

Base Woman

Man

Braley Favorability
Bruce Braley 48%

48%

48%

Joni Ernst 47%

46%

49%

7%

3%

Undecided

5%

Favorable 47%

48%

47%

Unfavorable 46%

43%

50%

10%

3%

Not sure

7%

Gender
Base Woman

Gender
Man

Ernst Favorability

Base Woman

Man

EPA Shutdown

Favorable 48%

47%

48%

Support 29%

25%

32%

Unfavorable 47%

45%

49%

Oppose 54%

52%

57%

8%

3%

Not sure 17%

23%

11%

Not sure

5%

Party

Party

Independent
Base Democrat Republican
/ Other
Senate

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Braley Favorability
Bruce Braley 48%

83%

15%

46%

Favorable 47%

80%

17%

45%

Joni Ernst 47%

15%

83%

42%

Unfavorable 46%

17%

77%

43%

2%

2%

12%

3%

6%

12%

Undecided

5%

Not sure

7%

Party

Party

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

Ernst Favorability

Base Democrat Republican

Independent
/ Other

EPA Shutdown

Favorable 48%

21%

82%

38%

Support 29%

14%

47%

24%

Unfavorable 47%

76%

15%

51%

Oppose 54%

78%

26%

60%

3%

3%

12%

Not sure 17%

8%

27%

17%

Not sure

5%

Race
Base

Race

White Other

Senate

Base

White Other

Braley Favorability
Bruce Braley 48%

47%

52%

Favorable 47%

46%

54%

Joni Ernst 47%

49%

33%

Unfavorable 46%

47%

34%

4%

15%

6%

12%

Undecided

5%

Not sure

7%

Race
Base

Race

White Other

Ernst Favorability

Base

White Other

EPA Shutdown

Favorable 48%

50%

25%

Support 29%

28%

35%

Unfavorable 47%

46%

59%

Oppose 54%

55%

45%

4%

16%

Not sure 17%

17%

19%

Not sure

5%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Senate

Base

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Braley Favorability
Bruce Braley 48%

52%

46%

47%

Favorable 47%

50%

47%

45%

Joni Ernst 47%

44%

48%

49%

Unfavorable 46%

46%

47%

45%

4%

6%

5%

4%

6%

9%

Undecided

5%

Not sure

7%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Ernst Favorability

Base

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

EPA Shutdown

Favorable 48%

44%

49%

49%

Support 29%

37%

27%

24%

Unfavorable 47%

52%

45%

46%

Oppose 54%

53%

55%

53%

4%

6%

5%

Not sure 17%

10%

18%

22%

Not sure

5%