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Digital Re-print September | October 2014
Global Feed Markets: September - October 2014

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54 |

&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY

COMMODITIES

GFMT’s market analyst
John Buckley reviews world
trading conditions which are
impacting the full range of
commodities used in food
and feed production. His
observations will influence
your decision-making.

Overall, world output
is expected to reach a
comfortable 70/71m tonnes,
keeping rapeseed meal
supplies near to last season’s
levels. World sunflowerseed
production will be down by
about 5% or 2m tonnes this
season due to smaller crops
in Russia and Ukraine and
a slightly smaller harvest in
Europe. However, using some
of the stocks carried in from
last season will help maintain
crushings and meal output
close to last year’s levels.

GRAIN

Where will all the wheat
(& maize & soya) go?

T

he old adage that ‘big crops get bigger’ has certainly been borne out this year.
Not everybody has had ideal weather – we think particularly of Canada and the
northern US states, France, parts of Northern and Eastern Europe, Ukraine, parts
of Russia where there has been too much and eastern Australia, too little rain. But
amid pretty much ideal conditions in most other areas, that hasn’t stopped the global crop
estimates climbing far beyond anything anyone dreamed possible back in the early summer.
Just since our last review, according to the latest USDA assessment, the world wheat crop
estimate has soared by a further 15m tonnes to a new all-time peak of 720m, largely due to
big increases for Russia (+6m), Ukraine and the European Union (+3m each). Among other
significant exporters, crop estimates have been boosted for Kazakhstan and the USA. Even
China (the largest single country producer and consumer of wheat) has seen its forecast raised
by 2m to 126m tonnes.
So world wheat production, rather than dropping significantly from last year’s record (714m
tonnes) has actually exceeded it. The USDA will have some further fine tuning to do to these
numbers. Australia’s crop estimate of 25.5m tonnes is probably about 1.5m too high versus
official forecasts while Canada’s may also have to come down from the current 28m. On
the other hand, USDA’s 151m tonnes for the EU now looks about 3m too low while Russia’s
harvest yields are implying something higher than USDA’s 59m – perhaps as much as 61m
or 62m tonnes. Overall, then, final world output could well turn out even higher than 720m.
The USDA has softened the blow on prices from this rising supply by balancing it against higher
consumption. In global terms this is now seen 10m higher than in July and about 7m over last
year’s. The latest increases come mainly in countries whose crops have risen most significantly
- the EU, CIS and China – as well as a number of moderate/smaller sized users expected to
consume more as supplies rise and prices drop. Maybe USDA’s 710m is a bit optimistic for
global consumption, however, given (a) the competition coming for feed outlets from a massive
maize crop and (b) the still wide premium wheat is charging over maize. Even if that proves
close, world wheat stocks will jump by 10m tonnes to the top end of the range of recent years.

&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY

GRAIN

September - October 2014 | 55

Taking all this on board, along with the huge increase in foreign
competition and its own inability to compete enough on world wheat
export markets, the bellwether US futures market in Chicago has seen
yet another collapse in prices since our last review. As September
drew to a close, the nearby month was trading down to $4.68/bu
($172/tonne) compared with about $195 two months ago and about
$250 this time last year.
Another issue driving wheat prices is the quality factor. Much of this
year’s European, Ukrainian, probably North American wheat too, is
of rain-damaged sub-par quality that will have to be cleared closer to
feed prices. We have already seen the dramatic impact of this on the
European (Paris-based) milling wheat futures market with its heavy
bias towards French wheat. This ‘hedging’ or ‘price-insurance’ tool
has had to lower its quality specs (in the event of a seller making a

physical delivery to a futures store) to accommodate the unusually
low-grade French harvest. The new milling requirements - Hagberg
falling numbers from 220 but with tolerances and price discounts
down to 170, and minimum proteins of 10.5% - were on the low side
of some traders’ expectations and, amid ongoing concerns about
how much grain might meet even these requirements, this action has
not stopped French milling wheat prices toward feed-wheat value.
As we go to press, the nearby month has fallen to a four-year low
of under E150/tonne compared with E170.50 at the end of July. A
year ago, the near contract was quoted at over E193 with forwards
(including the current spot position) at similar levels – quite drop. Feed
wheat is closer to E140 and many observers think that is where it will
end up – unless that floor moves lower too, which is not ruled out
While the surplus of feed wheat is tugging at the market’s ankles,

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F

40||COMMODITIES
September - October 2014
56

FEEDMILLING
MILLINGTECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY
&FEED
&

GRAIN
GRAIN

environment,
can
cope
with
climate
laboration,
new
laboratories
the flip side of reduced high quality supplies is leading to some
wide for
grains
into 2015 but it is
hard to seeand
what
will
drive
prices
up
change.
will be builtinand
premiums for the latter. US hard red winter breadwheat for example,
the new
near scientists
future especially
if production does turn out higher
• Improve
the nutrition
and health
of a
social sci- lower
and/or consumption
than expected.
Futures
are often
is quoting $272/277 (fob export port) depending on proteinstrained
rangingin agronomy,
poor rice consumers and rice farmers.
ence,
from 12.5% to 14.2% while Dark Northern Spring wheat for
14%-plant pathology, and cor• Provide equitable access to information
porate services to strengthen
plus protein is almost $90/tonne more expensive.
and knowledge on rice and help
research and production in
But competition for export markets is keeping ordinaryrice
milling
develop the next generation of rice
the region.
wheats closer to the $230 level amid a multi-cornered fight between
scientists.
various European, Russian, North-American and, before long,
• Provide rice scientists and rice
Australian offers. Despite their quality problems, the FrenchAbout
appear IRRI
producers with the genetic information
For over five decades, the
determined to clear as much grain for export as possible, possibly
and materials they need to breed better
IRRI has been the home of the
fearing further quality deterioration in store of moist-harvested
rice varieties, develop technologies to
most to
brilliant minds in the field
grain and have been offering some astonishingly cheap deals
support optimal farming practices, and
rice research and agriculture.
important importers like Egypt (which lowered its own of
quality
enhance rice production.
Scientists in the thousands from
specs on moisture last month to keep France in the competition).
• Increasing food security
all good
across the globe had been
Within Europe, the Germans at least appear to have some
Rice is the most important human food,
In herwheat
speech,
minister
quality
to the
sell to
Third commended
Countries or ship around trained
Europe at the IRRI, and later on
became
leaders
and policy makers in their eaten by more than half of the world’s poputhe
IRRIit’s
forneeded.
its dynamic
and important
where
They work
will probably
capitalise on
the French
quality
andcustom
home countries.
IRRI offers inten- lation everyday. In Asia, where 90 percent of
role
in changing
livesofofitsex-combatant
problem
to grabthe
some
traditional millingfields
wheat
in
rice research with the goal of rice is consumed, ensuring there is enough
women
are now
fighting
a different
countrieswho
like Algeria
(which
has refused
to takesive
lowtraining
quality in
French
scientists, farmers, and other affordable rice for everyone, or rice security, is
battle
Burundi.
wheat- food
even insecurity
if blendedinup
with better qualityempowering
imported wheat).
workers
ensuring that they have the equivalent to food security. In Africa and Latin
“Theyis can
rice. Theymember
are rice
Quality
also now
goodeat
for more
the Northern
states,
parts and
of the
properitsknowledge
smiling.
an inspiration
for UK
the which
governeasternThis
EU isand,
not least the
is enjoying
best crop and crop management America, rice is becoming a more important
strategies
they can share with their staple too. Much of IRRI’s work is around
ment,”
the years
minister
added.of Hagbergs and proteins
for many
in terms
and isthat
actually
helping increase rice production to ensure
Traditionally
eaten
once or respective communities.
exporting
someserved
milling and
quality
to France.
IRRI's that
goals
contribute to the United food security - particularly for those people
twice
a yearis during
festivities,
rice is prices
being by forecasts
Pressure
also being
put on wheat
world
Nations
promoted
to become
a year-round
import demand
will drop
this seasonfare
by for
over 7m
tonnesMillennium
from last Development Goals to most at risk of not getting enough food.
Food security is also recognised as being
extreme
Burundians.
Rice
is one
of the
government’s
year’s record
level
as China
requires
less (with eradicate
its bigger crop)
andpoverty and hunger and
ensure155m
environmental
sustainability. They more than just providing people with enough
priority
to contribute
greatlyThe
to forecast
several crops,
smallerseen
buyers
trim their needs.
tonnes
also side
aligned
with the objectives of the calories to live on, but ensuring people have
food
security
in thehowever,
country. turn out a little on are
global
total could,
the low
as Iran
Global
Rice smaller
Science Partnership (the CGIAR enough nutrients for optimal health too.
Minister
Kayitesi
said that the
governand
some of
Mid-east/North
African
countries
achieve
IRRIBack
is working
developing
rice
help deliver
ment
strongly supports
than expected
crops. building further on Research Program on Rice)
poorthat
forward
indicator.
in the on
spring,
CBOT healthier
September
tolow
help$7’s/bu.
those who
depend
internationally
coordinated
research
effectheWhere
collaboration
IRRIdrop
and end?
Burundi,
will thebetween
wheat price
It remains
a popular guessing
suggested
wheat
wouldvarieties
be in the
Evenmostly
the increases
on rice
can estimates
get more nutrients
into their
diet
ournoted
partners.
improving
the region’s
ricestill
production,
game. Current
levels are
some wayand
off thetively
lowsand
seenefficiently
over thewithwe
above to world
crop
in the interim
don’t
reduce
malnutrition.
• included
Ensure that
is stabletoand
supporting
the of
fight
againstmarket
poverty
and which
past eight years
extreme
volatility
notrice
onlyproduction
seem enough
justifytoprices
falling
that far shor t of forecast –
http://irri.org
sustainable, does minimal
thebeen way too expensive to start with (or
hunger.
In anticipation
of a stronger
record highs
(13/bu or $478/tonne)
butcolthe low $4’s/bu.
unlessharm
theyto
had
indeed
The forward CBOT futures market points to modest recovery had over-reacted to supply shor tfalls over the past decade of

&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY

GRAIN

September - October 2014 | 57

Hydronix Moisture Sensors

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speculator-boosted volatility). The extent – and speed – with
which markets can come back down is rarely believed during
bull feeding frenzies, especially by the newer par ticipants from
the investment community.
Now, of course, there is the opposite danger of things getting
overdone on the downside. In the past month or so there has been
much talk of producers facing loss-making returns – particularly on
maize in Latin America. Costs of production, inputs and land and, in
many countries labour too, have all soared since the last time wheat
was at $4/bu or less. Will that spell cutbacks in grain sown areas/
inputs and a lower crop going forward? It’s unclear at this stage
that this will happen as soon as 2015. Certainly Russia, the world’s
fastest growing wheat supplier, appears to be putting more rather
than less winter wheat into the ground this autumn. US sowing is
also ahead as farmers make the most of the best autumn moisture
conditions for some years.
We have to remember too that yields have been on a long-term
upward curve that, while it may slow, isn’t over yet. 20 years ago,
farmers around the world sowed as much wheat as they did for the
2014 crop but yields have risen almost 30% since then.

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accurate and cost effective moisture measurement and
control in feed meals and pellets, grain, cereal and pulses.

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The Hydro-Probe XT has been specifically designed to
measure moisture in organic materials, typically being
installed in or underneath silos or in the material on a
conveyor.
The Hydro-Mix VII is a flush mounted sensor that is
ideally suited to installation in mixers, augers or the inlet /
outlet of grain dryers.
Both sensors offer a choice of digital measurement
modes enabling the producer to select the best option for
the material being measured.

Hydro-Mix VII

KEY FACTORS AHEAD - WHEAT
• Tensions between Russia and Ukraine appeared to ease in the
last few weeks but the underlying problem hasn’t gone away. The
trade was right in expecting ‘business as usual’ over the summer
– record wheat exports from both countries. However, there
remain concerns about the impact of their collapsed currencies –
and western sanctions on Russian credit – affecting sowing plans
and/or input use – so a potential impact on both area and yields
next summer.
• World stocks continue to grow more than expected this season as
consumption falls faster than production – that provides a useful
buffer to any 2015 crop issues.
• World wheat trade is declining from last season’s record high
and there will be plenty of rivals for custom – keeping downward
pressure on world wheat prices – though quality premiums will
stay high just as feed values probably have further to fall
• Autumn sowing is wel underway in the Northern Hemisphere.
Sown acreage updates from the USDA, the IGC, FAO and others
will be keenly followed.
• Wheat feeding levels – so wheat value – will remain under further
pressure from huge maize supplies, especially within the EU but
also in ‘swing’ import markets like South Korea.

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While growth in wheat yields has slowed, maize productivity
continues to increase, especially in less developed and emergent
economies where better seed, input use and improvements in

www.hydronix.com
GFMT half page vertical 90 x 270 plus 3mm bleed not left.indd 1

13/01/2014 10:00:18

58 |

COMMODITIES

general technology/husbandry are making most impact. In the past
two decades, world average yields have increased by about 40%
to a record average 5.6 tonnes/ha with a 12% gain in the last six
years alone.
Yields have been the buzzword all through August in the US
Corn Belt where farmers have regularly been repor ting some
phenomenal results from a near ideal summer of plentiful moisture,
mild temperatures and, so far, trouble-free harvest. 300+ bushels
an acre may not be the norm but has cer tainly been commonly
achieved in the first harvesting southern states. It does suggest
the USDA is too light on its current 171.7bu national average
prediction.
Even if we take off a some harvested acres to reflect the USDA’s
recent count of prevented plantings (due to earlier wet weather), it
is quite possible the crop will well exceed the USDA’s 365.7m tonne
forecast (versus last year’s 353.7m). There are plenty of 370m plus
estimates floating in the market and some much higher.
This has been the key factor driving down US corn futures, which in
September traded as low as 326.5/bu (about $128.50) – its cheapest
since June 2010.
In global terms, the maize output forecast for 2014/15 has risen by
about 6.5m tonnes as a 12.7m rise for the US was offset by cuts of
5m for China, 3m for Argentina, 1.5m for the CIS and some smaller
country reductions. However, the EU estimate has risen by a hefty
2.8m over that same period.
World consumption of maize has been raised by 4.4m tonnes to
reflect a response to higher supplies and lower prices, mainly in the
USA where USDA now sees more of the grain used in all major
outlets – feed, ethanol – even exports.
Even so, global maize stocks are now seen reaching 190m tonnes
or about 20% of world consumption and the US component jumping
5m tonnes since July to a burdensome 51m tonnes (about 17% of use
compared with less than half that ratio just two years earlier.
Like wheat, maize is expected to see its global import total drop
back during 2014/15, by about 10m tonnes. Although Ukraine will
probably have less to export from this year’s smaller crop (down
4m tonnes at the last count) there will be more from Brazil and
Argentina, both carrying in larger stocks from their last harvests. The
EU is meanwhile expected to import about 6m tonnes less maize
as it turns to its own larger crop, not to mention uses more of its
weather-damaged wheat harvest for animal feed.
With the CIS countries about to harvest – and already talking some
very cheap fob export offers, maize prices are under downward
pressure from multiple directions – including the huge US and record
EU crops, loads of feed wheat , less import demand worldwide. If
the US crop is as big as some analysts think, the CIS countries want
to sell ‘off-the-combine’ to finance their autumn wheat sowings and
Latin Americans keep clearing old and new crop grain at current
competitive prices, CBOT maize may have further to fall yet. Prior
to the 2007/08 boom, the normal range was $2-$3/bu or about
$80-$120/tonne!

COARSE GRAINS - KEY ISSUES AHEAD
• Maize supplies keep growing, led by a possibly still under-rated US
crop and ample supplies from Latin America, CIS & Europe
• Brisk export competition should keep prices under downward
pressure
• Competition from huge feed wheat supplies will maize maintain
steep discounts but the implied boost to livestock feeders margins
might stimulate greater meat production than expected.
• How much maize will the EU import?
• China continues to release some of its huge maize stockpile, capping
its import needs.

PROTEINS IN ABUNDANCE
Oilmeal costs continue to decline under the influence of record
soya meal supplies although the weak euro has robbed European
customers of some of the benefit in terms of the largely imported
raw material. The biggest single factor remains the larger than
expected American soyabean crop. Since our last review, the

&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY

GRAIN

weather has been almost ideal for most US regions, leading the
USDA to raise its national crop estimate from 99m to 106.5m
tonnes. Even that may under-rate the final figure as USDA is using a
yield of 46.6bu /acre whereas many in the trade have been expecting
up to, even over 50 bu (which could equate to 114m tonnes. In
early October, with about 3% of a slightly late-running crop cut, the
first harvests have been yielding from 50 to 80 bushels. That may
decline as the combines move North while the final harvest area
(USDA has at 84.1m acres) may have to be trimmed back to reflect
fields that weren’t sown due to difficult planting weather. Whether
or not the crop turns out bigger, no-one is in any doubt that this
harvest spells abundant supply and huge stock buildup. At 106.5m it
would be 17m up on last year’s, equivalent to 13.6m tonnes of extra
soya meal. At this stage, more of this increase is expected to go
into stocks than into larger US crush or exports because the latter
outlets will not grow fast enough. The supply picture is even looser
on a global scale. With Brazil and Argentina expected to plant even
bigger acreages than last year’s record ones, their crops (arriving
next spring) are expectedto grow significantly too. According to
USDA, in world terms, that points to soyabean production for
the recently started 20014/15 season 28m tonnes larger than last
year’s and a staggering 71m more than in 2011/12. In meal terms
that equals over 22m and almost 57m tonnes respectively. Again,
the fact that crush and meal output will not gain that much is a
function of demand, not supply. It means world soyabean stocks
will jump from 67m to over 90m tonnes – their biggest annual
increase ever.Accounting for 55/60% of world oilseed and as much
as 68% of meal production, soya always determines the direction
of the broader market in protein meals. Since the magnitude of
the current US/global crop outlook began to emerge, the nearby
price of soyabeans on the bellwether Chicago futures market has
dropped 25%. Since the early summer peaks, the price has fallen by
over 40%. Over the past two months, Chicago soya meal futures
have also dropped by over 30%.
A quick snapshot of the other major oilseed sources shows
rapeseed production turning out better than expected in Europe
where the crop could be about 2m tonnes bigger than last year’s.
Largest supplier Canada has had weather problems from the outset
- largely cool damp conditions delaying development but may yet
turn in a respectable crop of between 14m and 15m tonnes – and
has large stocks carried over from last year. The former Soviet
countries also have big crops for the second year running, especially
Russia, which has raised production. Overall, world output is
expected to reach a comfortable 70/71m tonnes, keeping rapeseed
meal supplies near to last season’s levels. World sunflowerseed
production will be down by about 5% or 2m tonnes this season due
to smaller crops in Russia and Ukraine and a slightly smaller harvest
in Europe. However, using some of the stocks carried in from last
season will help maintain crushings and meal output close to last
year’s levels. Including cottonseed, groundnuts, palm kernel cake
etc, overal world oilmeal supplies are forecast at a record 291m
tonnes to eaily match foreseen growth of about 10m tonnes in
meal demand, heavily focused on China, Europe, the USA, Latin
America and India. Clearly, with oilseed stocks growin g at an
unprecedented pace, there is ample room to expand crush and
meal production if the market needs it – an equation that points
oilmeal costs firmly ‘South.’

OILMEALS/PROTEINS – KEY FACTORS AHEAD
• Even bigger than expected US and LatAm soyabean crop surpluses
continue to signal cheaper global oilmeal costs
• Next year’s soya crops could be even larger as the major exporting
countries shift some maize land to oilseed production for better
returns
• Lower oilmeal costs might spur greater than expected demand in
countries developing their livestock production systems – China,
India, Indonesia - as well as market leaders like the USA where high
meat prices are also adding to profitability.
• Soya seems likely to increase its already huge share of the protein
market. As the high-protein, reliable quality source, its cheaper
price will demand a response across the sector.

FEED MILLING
MILLING TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY
&FEED
September - October 2014 | 9

GRAIN
GRAIN

transition to either
replace all millstones
with a complete
roller plant, or to go
halfway and keep
one or two pairs of
millstones alongside
The transition to either partial or
of millstones for the installation of
t was not a cheap business, but
s found it worthwhile to do so to
h the changing times.
have some of the large milling
ness, but there are also survivors
when small country and town mills
to keep up with the competition
mills. Caudwell’s mill (mentioned
rland-Ball, one of our supporters,
ssue), which is still working, gives
e into how a small country mill
challenge of going fully over to
stem. On the Isle of Wight four
urned over to roller milling, Upper
being the last of the four to conrs. These former small port mills
menting their island trade to the
oday, you can still see the roller
d by Henry Simon at Calbourne
h these are still workable, the mill
millstones to produce its flour.
s were not to be left out and
ewington Ramsgate, Watlington
ess Brothers, Green Cap mill at

N

September
September -- October
October 2014
2014 || 11
11

EXCELLENCE IN YEAST –
EXCELLENT IN FEED

Yarmouth and Tring Flour Mills were some
which continued working alongside a newer,
larger roller mill building. A Mr R Randerson
of York had his tall seven-storey windmill fitted
out with a complete Henry Simon roller plant.
The Mills Archive contains material on roller
flour milling from around the world, although
the modern industry is poorly represented. In
Hungary, the home of the porcelain rollers, there
is a fine museum on the history of milling. If you
know of any roller men who would be happy
to talk to us about their experiences or donate
any roller mill material, we would love to make
contact and thus add to our new project.
Cookson at mills@millsarchive.org
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Biolex® MB40

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Bramsche
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Tel.
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www.leibergmbh.de
info@leibergmbh.de
info@leibergmbh.de

Stand F28

N

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