The Green Book

Current Economic Trends

Overview
Although real economy indicators such as production, investment and employment, affected
by Chuseok holidays, slowed improvement in October, the Korean economy overall stayed in
a recovery phase during September and October.
Mining and manufacturing production decreased 3.8 percent month-on-month, while service
output fell 1.4 percent. On a year-on-year basis, however, both indicators improved 0.2
percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. During September and October, mining and
manufacturing production rose 5.5 percent compared with the same period of the previous
year, while service output grew 3.0 percent.
Consumer goods sales improved at a faster pace, from an increase of 1.7 percent to 2.9
percent month-on-month and 6.6 percent to 9.8 percent year-on-year, backed by strong
automobile sales and Chuseok holiday demand.
Facilities investment declined 5.8 percent month-on-month in October, affected by
decreasing investment in transportation equipment including airplanes, although the index
improved 0.3 percent year-on-year. Construction completed fell 0.4 percent month-onmonth, or 6.5 percent year-on-year, due to poor performance in the private sector.
Exports in November surged 18.8 percent year-on-year from the previous month’s 8.5
percent decline, positively affected by a rise in major exports and a low base effect.
The total number of workers hired gained 10,000 year-on-year in October, increasing at a
slower rate compared with the previous month’s gain of 71,000, due to weak construction.
The unemployment rate dropped from the previous month’s 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent.
Consumer prices in November accelerated a year-on-year increase from 2.0 percent a month
earlier to 2.4 percent, as strong international oil prices pushed up oil product prices.
In November, uncertainties surrounding financial markets grew due to Dubai World’s
request for a standstill on debt payments on November 25, which demonstrated that
potential risks still exist in the global economy and international financial markets, and that
the recovery is not sustainable yet.
To sum up, although the domestic economy stayed on a recovery trajectory, uncertainties
surrounding the economy remain, as employment and investment have not improved
enough, and international financial markets will possibly become unstable again.
The Korean government will, considering external factors and other uncertainties in the
economy, keep pursuing expansionary fiscal policies, spend the 2009 budget as planned,
and make 2010 budget spending ready. On the other hand, measures to create jobs, support
the working class and advance service industries will continue to be carried out, while
external and internal uncertainties being closely monitored.

Economic Bulletin

3

1. Global economy
The global economy is gradually emerging from the recession as the third-quarter growth in
major countries such as the US, the EU and Japan turned positive. On November 19, the OECD
revised up its world economic growth outlook for 2010 to 3.4 percent, higher than its June
forecast of 2.3 percent growth. The organization projected economic growth of the U.S., the
EU and Japan at 2.5 percent, 0.9 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.
However, uncertainties still remain over the international financial market due to a slow
recovery and Dubai World’s potential default on its debt payments.

US

Although the US revised down annualized real GDP growth (preliminary) in the third quarter
from 3.5 percent to 2.8 percent, the economy is on a recovery track.
Industrial production slowed its pace of growth in October, posting a 0.1 percent increase
month-on-month, as manufacturing of automobiles and components dropped 1.7 percent
due to the end of the Cash for Clunkers Program.
Sales of new and existing homes in October jumped 6.2 percent and 10.1 percent month-onmonth, respectively, backed by the tax credit for first-time home buyers, while the
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices rose 0.3 percent, marking the fourth consecutive
monthly increase.
In October, non-farm payrolls declined at a slower pace, whereas the unemployment rate hit
10.2 percent, the highest since 1983.
The Federal Reserve raised the growth outlook to a contraction of 0.4 to 0.1 percent in 2009
and growth of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2010, from the June forecast of 1.5 to 1.0 percent
shrinkage in 2009 and 2.1 to 3.3 growth in 2010.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008

Real GDP

1

- Personal consumption expenditure
- Corporate fixed investment
- Construction investment for housing

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Oct

0.4

-0.7

1.5

-2.7

-5.4

-6.4

-0.7

2.8

-

-0.2

-0.6

0.1

-3.5

-3.1

0.6

-0.9

2.9

-

1.6

1.9

1.4

-6.1

-19.5

-39.2

-9.6

-4.1

-

-22.9

-28.2

-15.8

-15.9

-23.2

-38.2

-23.3

19.5

-

Industrial production

-1.8

0.1

-1.2

-2.3

-3.4

-5.2

-2.7

1.4

0.1

Retail sales

-0.7

-0.5

0.4

-1.4

-6.6

-1.3

-0.3

1.5

1.4

New home sales

-37.4

-14.8

-9.6

-9.8

-15.0

-13.5

9.9

11.1

6.2

New non-farm payroll employment
(q-o-q, thousand)2

-257

-113

-153

-208

-553

-691

-428

-226

-190

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.2

1.5

-0.2

-0.9

-1.6

-0.2

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
1. Annualized rate (%)
2. Monthly average
Source: US Department of Commerce

4

December 2009

1-1

US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
Source: US Department of Commerce

1-2

US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change)
Source: US Department of Labor

1-3

US federal funds rate and consumer prices
Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor

Economic Bulletin

5

China

Investment and consumption in China continued to improve, with exports declining at a
slower pace. Consumer prices eased the slide year-on-year and home prices accelerated the
increase.
Home prices (y-o-y, %)
-1.3 (Mar 2009)

-1.1 (Apr)

-0.6 (May)

0.2 (Jun)

1.0 (Jul)

2.0 (Aug)

2.8 (Sep)

3.9 (Oct)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2008

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

9.0

10.6

10.1

9.0

6.8

6.1

7.9

8.9

-

-

Fixed asset investment (accumulated)

26.1

25.9

26.8

27.6

26.1

28.6

33.6

33.3

33.3

33.1

Retail sales

21.6

20.6

22.2

23.2

20.6

15.0

15.0

15.4

15.5

16.2

Industrial production

12.9

16.4

15.9

13.0

6.4

5.1

9.1

12.4

13.9

16.1

Exports

17.2

21.4

22.4

22.9

4.1

-19.7

-23.5

-20.7

-15.2

-13.8

Consumer prices

5.9

8.0

7.8

5.3

2.5

-0.6

-1.5

-1.3

-0.8

-0.5

Producer prices

6.9

6.9

8.4

9.7

2.5

-4.6

-7.2

-7.7

-7.0

-5.8

Real GDP

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

Japan

Japan’s real GDP grew 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter (advanced estimates) in the third
quarter, posting a rise for two straight quarters, as the improving global economy boosted
exports and industrial production.
The Cabinet Office declared the economy was in mild deflation, and was expected to reflect
the situation in the 2009 supplementary budget and the 2010 budget.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009

2008
Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

Real GDP

-0.7

1.0

-0.7

-1.7

-3.0

-3.2

0.7

1.2

-

-

Industrial and mining production

-3.4

0.3

-1.5

-3.3

-17.7

-17.2

14.6

5.9

2.1

0.5

0.3

1.8

0.2

0.8

-1.5

-3.9

-0.9

-3.4

-1.3

-0.9

-3.5

5.9

1.8

3.2

-23.1

-46.9

-38.5

-34.4

-30.6

-23.2

1.4

1.0

1.4

2.2

1.0

-0.1

-1.0

-2.2

-2.2

-2.5

Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
Exports (y-o-y, %)
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre

Eurozone

Eurozone’s real GDP in the third quarter rose for the first time in five quarters, posting a 0.4
percent quarter-on-quarter increase (advanced estimates), helped by export growth in
France and Germany. Industrial production grew for a fifth consecutive month in September,
as orders increased in line with the economic recovery.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

0.8

0.8

-0.3

-0.3

-1.8

-2.5

-0.2

0.4

-

-

Industrial production

-1.8

1.0

-1.0

-1.7

-8.0

-8.6

-1.0

2.1

0.2

-

Retail sales

-0.7

0.1

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.9

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-

Exports (y-o-y, %)

3.6

6.5

8.0

5.3

-5.0

-21.3

-23.4

-19.1

-18.4

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)

3.3

3.3

3.6

3.8

2.3

1.0

0.2

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

Real GDP

Source: Eurostat

6

December 2009

1-4

China’s GDP and fixed asset investment
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

1-5

Japan’s GDP growth
Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan

1-6

Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production
Source: Eurostat

Economic Bulletin

7

2. Private consumption
Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter increased 1.5 percent quarter-onquarter, or 0.8 percent year-on-year.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2007

Private consumption

2

(Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
Source: The Bank of Korea

20081

Annual

Annual

Q1

5.1

0.9

-

-

20091

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

4.0

2.3

1.4

-3.7

-4.4

-0.8

0.8

1.1

-0.2

0.0

-4.6

0.4

3.6

1.5

3. Percentage change from previous period

Consumer goods sales in October rose 2.9 percent month-on-month, or 9.8 percent year-onyear, posting a sixth consecutive monthly increase, thanks to brisk sales of durable, semidurable and non-durable goods.
On a month-on-month basis, durable and non-durable goods sales led a rise in consumer
goods sales, increasing 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent respectively, while semi-durable goods
sales inched up 1.3 percent. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales jumped 15.8
percent thanks to solid automobiles sales, while sales of semi-durable and non-durable
goods rose 3.6 percent and 10.0 percent, respectively.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2008

2009

Annual

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Consumer goods sales

1.0

2.9

1.4

-4.2

-4.9

1.6

3.5

1.9

6.6

9.8

(Seasonally adjusted)

-

-1.3

-0.1

-3.5

0.4

5.0

1.5

-0.4

1.7

2.9

1.9

8.7

0.0

-9.9

-13.6

4.0

10.1

6.0

26.1

15.8

- Durable goods

2

3

1

Aug

Sep1

Oct1

-2.0

7.1

-4.9

-19.5

-21.3

18.4

29.7

19.4

65.7

36.1

- Semi-durable goods4

-2.4

-2.1

0.6

-9.9

-0.9

0.3

0.2

0.2

2.6

3.6

- Non-durable goods

0.7

0.3

1.2

-0.4

-1.4

1.0

2.0

1.1

0.3

10.0

Automobiles

5

1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.
4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc.
5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Source: Statistics Korea

Sales at large discounters rose year-on-year for the first time in five months, and sales at
both department stores and specialized retailers posted double-digit growth.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2008

- Department stores
- Large discounters
- Specialized retailers

2

2009

Annual

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

0.5

3.7

0.2

-5.0

1.4

2.8

6.5

7.1

8.8

12.0

2.2

3.1

-0.2

-1.2

-5.0

-2.9

-3.2

-2.2

-2.0

5.6

-1.7

0.7

-1.0

-8.1

-6.9

2.6

4.5

1.4

8.6

10.6

1. Preliminary
2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
Source: Statistics Korea

8

December 2009

1

Aug

Sep1

Oct1

2-1

Private consumption
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

2-2

Consumer goods sales
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

2-3

Consumer goods sales by type
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

9

In November, consumer goods sales are likely to slightly decrease month-on-month due to a
high base effect from Chuseok holidays. The year-on-year index, however, will continue to
rise, given improvement in advanced estimates.
Domestic credit card spending surged 18.3 percent year-on-year, expanding the upward
trend from the previous month’s 9.4 percent.
Sales at department stores grew 6.4 percent year-on-year, posting an increase for nine
consecutive months, although the pace of increase slightly decelerated compared with the
previous month. Sales at large discounters reversed to decrease by 2.8 percent year-on-year
in November, after a month of year-on-year growth in October.
Domestic sales of Korean cars soared 83.6 percent year-on-year, affected by the release of
new cars, demand surge before expiration of the tax break for new car purchases and a low
base effect from the previous year.
Gasoline sales fell 1.6 percent year-on-year due to a decline in demand, as fear about the
spread of H1N1 influenza discouraged people from traveling.
Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %)
12.4 (Jun 2009)

7.3 (Jul)

10.9 (Aug)

14.7 (Sep)

9.4 (Oct)

18.3 (Nov)

Department store sales (y-o-y, %)
3.6 (Jun 2009)

4.0 (Jul)

7.6 (Aug)

8.6 (Sep)

11.4 (Oct)

6.4 (Nov)

Discount store sales (y-o-y, %)
-1.4 (Jun 2009)

-6.0 (Jul)

-1.5 (Aug)

-6.0 (Sep)

4.5 (Oct)

-2.8 (Nov)

Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %)
46.0 (Jun 2009)

10.8 (Jul)

13.0 (Aug)

76.0 (Sep)

23.8 (Oct)

83.6 (Nov)

Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %)
11.1 (Jun 2009)

15.8 (Jul)

4.0 (Aug)

- 0.3 (Sep)

20.7 (Oct)

-1.6 (Nov)

Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy
The Credit Finance Association
Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association
Korea National Oil Corporation
Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for November data)

Despite stabilizing consumer prices and gradually improving employment, consumer
sentiment declined slightly.
Employment (y-o-y, thousand)
-219 (May 2009)

4 (Jun)

-76 (Jul)

3 (Aug)

2.2 (Aug)

2.2 (Sep)

71 (Sep)

10 (Oct)

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
2.0 (Jun 2009)

1.6 (Jul)

2.0 (Oct)

2.4 (Nov)

The won/dollar exchange rate (monthly average)
1,261 (Jun 2009)

1,264 (Jul)

1,238 (Aug)

1,219 (Sep)

1,175 (Oct)

1,164 (Nov)

1,579 (Aug)

1,659 (Sep)

1,631 (Oct)

1,583 (Nov)

KOSPI (monthly average)
1,395 (Jun 2009)

1,460 (Jul)

Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
106 (Jun 2009)

10

December 2009

109 (Jul)

114 (Aug)

114 (Sep)

117 (Oct)

113 (Nov)

2-4

Department store and discount store sales (current value)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)

2-5

Domestic automobile sales
Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)

2-6

Consumer sentiment index
Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

11

3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter posted a quarter-on-quarter
increase of 10.4 percent, and a year-on-year loss of 7.4 percent.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2007

2008

20091

1

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

9.3

-2.0

1.5

1.1

4.3

-14.0

-23.5

-15.9

-7.4

-

-

-0.4

0.4

0.2

-14.2

-11.2

10.1

10.4

- Machinery

9.2

-2.7

-1.2

-0.1

6.5

-15.3

-24.0

-19.6

-15.1

- Transportation equipment

9.6

0.4

12.2

5.1

-3.6

-9.9

-21.8

-3.2

21.8

Facility investment2
(Seasonally adjusted)3

1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
3. Percentage change from previous period
Source: The Bank of Korea

Facility investment in October fell 5.8 percent month-on-month, as transportation equipment
investment plummeted 16.7 percent affected by flagging investment in automobiles and
aircrafts. However, it rose 0.3 percent year-on-year due to a low base effect.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2007

Facility investment (estimated)
(Seasonally adjusted)

2

- Machinery

2008

2009

Annual

Annual

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q31

Aug

Sep1

Oct1

8.2

-4.3

-13.4

-17.7

-13.4

-10.1

-15.5

5.8

0.3

-

-

-9.3

-11.6

6.6

4.2

4.2

17.9

-5.8

7.5

-5.7

-14.5

-21.9

-19.5

-17.2

-20.7

-6.0

0.2

11.3

1.5

-9.0

0.4

11.3

19.6

7.2

54.4

0.4

20.6

-5.5

-47.3

-33.8

-14.1

6.5

-15.7

31.9

3.0

- Public

-11.4

4.9

-3.5

150.5

30.9

281.3

-15.7

129.5

-75.7

- Private

24.5

-6.2

-53.9

-42.9

-18.5

-12.4

-15.7

25.5

26.9

1.7

-2.2

-15.6

-18.9

-8.5

1.5

-1.8

8.1

-3.1

- Transportation equipment
Domestic machinery orders

Facility investment
adjustment pressure3

1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p)
Sources: Statistics Korea & The Korea International Trade Association

Facility investment in November is projected to improve, given growing corporate
investment confidence, rising domestic machinery orders, and increasing capital goods
imports.

2009

Business survey indices (base=100) for
manufacturing facility investment projections
Capital goods imports (US$ billion)
Source: The Bank of Korea

12

December 2009

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

97

95

100

96

98

9.03

9.62

9.48

10.50

-

3-1

Facility investment by type
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

3-2

Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average)
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

3-3

Machinery imports
Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)

Economic Bulletin

13

4. Construction investment
Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter rose 2.7 percent year-onyear, and declined 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2007

Construction investment
(Seasonally adjusted)

2

- Civil engineering works

20091

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

1.4

-2.1

-1.9

-0.3

0.2

-5.6

1.6

3.7

2.7

-

-

-2.5

-0.3

0.1

-3.0

5.2

1.7

-2.0

-0.0

-4.3

-1.2

-0.1

-0.1

-14.3

-11.1

-3.5

-0.4

3.8

1.3

-3.2

-0.7

0.7

5.7

24.9

14.3

7.7

3

- Building construction

2008

1

1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
3. Percentage change from previous period
Source: The Bank of Korea

Construction completed (current value) in October dropped 6.5 percent year-on-year due to
a setback in the private sector, although civil engineering works in the public sector stayed
on a positive track.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2007

2008

2009

Annual

Annual

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q31

Aug

Sep1

Oct1

6.6

4.7

-2.2

4.5

7.0

-0.6

-7.9

7.7

-6.5

-

-

-6.2

7.7

2.2

-6.6

-5.6

8.4

-4.3

- Public

8.4

6.5

8.7

24.4

32.1

21.7

14.2

32.2

2.5

- Private

4.6

1.7

-9.1

-5.0

-5.2

-11.3

-18.6

-4.3

-10.7

23.6

-9.0

-6.5

-16.5

-2.0

9.1

-29.5

58.4

27.2

- Public

40.3

9.1

5.0

22.0

186.5

75.6

12.7

101.1

89.7

- Private

16.5

-15.8

-15.3

-38.4

-62.4

-10.7

-42.0

61.8

16.3

Construction completed
(Seasonally adjusted)

2

Construction orders

1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
Source: Statistics Korea

Construction investment is projected to improve in November, as construction orders
continue to rise and the number of unsold houses decreases.
Construction orders increased 16.3 percent year-on-year due to growing orders in both the
public and private sector. Private sector construction orders advanced from a year earlier for
two consecutive months for the first time since May 2008.
Unsold houses (thousand)
146 (Jun 2009)

14

December 2009

140 (Jul)

134 (Aug)

126 (Sep)

120 (Oct)

4-1

Construction investment
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

4-2

Construction completed and housing construction
Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed)
Kookmin Bank (housing construction)

4-3

Leading indicators of construction investment
Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders)
Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)

Economic Bulletin

15

5. Exports and imports
Exports in November increased 18.8 percent year-on-year to US$34.27 billion.
The large increase in exports is mainly attributed to a low base effect from the previous year.
Daily average exports in working-day-adjusted-terms edged up from the previous month.
Semiconductors (up 80.7%), liquid crystal devices (up 66.8%), and household appliances
(up 43.7%) posted a substantial increase. Meanwhile, vessels (down 3.3%) and automobiles
(down 13.7%) decreased.
By regional category, exports to China (up 54.7%) and the ASEAN region (up 33.4%)
expanded significantly, while exports to the US (down 0.7%) slowed the fall.
(US$ billion)
2008

Exports
(y-o-y, %)

2009

Annual

Nov

Jan-Nov

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

Nov

Jan-Nov

422.01

28.84

394.89

74.41

90.69

94.99

34.07

33.96

34.27

328.31

13.6

-19.5

16.7

-25.2

-20.8

-17.5

-9.0

-8.5

18.8

-16.9

1.53

1.28

1.57

1.10

1.30

1.32

1.42

1.48

1.49

1.29

435.27

28.85

408.70

71.42

73.72

84.79

29.75

30.33

30.22

290.49

(y-o-y, %)

22.0

-15.0

26.6

-32.7

-35.8

-31.0

-24.7

-16.0

4.7

-28.9

Average daily imports

1.58

1.28

1.63

1.06

1.06

1.18

1.24

1.32

1.31

1.14

Average daily exports
Imports

Source: Korea Customs Service

Imports in November rose 4.7 percent year-on-year to US$30.22 billion, but average daily
imports in working-day-adjusted-terms slightly fell from the previous month. Year-on-year
imports of capital goods and consumer goods reversed to an increase, while raw material
imports continued to decline affected by a drop in crude oil imports due to temporary
inventory adjustment.
Raw materials (y-o-y, %)
-34.8 (Q1 2009)

-43.1 (Q2)

-39.3 (Q3); -18.1 (Oct)

-6.7 (Nov)

-13.7 (Q3); -13.3 (Oct)

27.9 (Nov)

-20.9 (Q3); -11.0 (Oct)

10.8 (Nov)

Capital goods (y-o-y, %)
-29.1 (Q1 2009)

-23.6 (Q2)

Consumer goods (y-o-y, %)
-29.5 (Q1 2009)

-24.4 (Q2)

The trade balance in November posted a surplus of US$4.05 billion, staying in the black for
ten straight months since February 2009.
(US$ billion)
2008

Trade balance
Source: Korea Customs Service

16

December 2009

2009

Annual

Nov

Jan-Nov

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

Nov

Jan-Nov

-13.27

-0.01

-13.81

2.99

16.97

10.19

4.32

3.63

4.05

37.82

5-1

Exports (customs clearance basis)
Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)

5-2

Imports (customs clearance basis)
Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)

5-3

Trade balance
Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)

Economic Bulletin

17

6. Mining and manufacturing production
Mining and manufacturing production in October fell 3.8 percent month-on-month, with
working days decreasing due to Chuseok holidays, but year-on-year it rose 2.0 percent,
maintaining the upward trend.
By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 32.7%) and chemical products (up
5.6%) increased year-on-year, while audio visual communications equipment (down 15.5%)
and automobiles (down 12.8%) decreased.
Shipments fell 3.1 percent year-on-year, while the level of inventory dropped at a faster pace
from the previous month’s 14.0 percent to 16.4 percent.
By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 19.5%) and chemical
products (up 11.8%) rose, while those of audio visual communications equipment (down
13.4%) and automobiles (down 7.3%) declined. The inventories of chemical products (down
27.4%), automobiles (down 27.0%), and primary metals (down 21.9%) went down.
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector registered 77.3 percent, down 3.0
percentage points month-on-month.
Average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector (m-o-m, %)
72.9 (May 2009)

76.6 (Jun)

78.7 (Jul)

77.7 (Aug)

80.2 (Sep)

77.3 (Oct)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2008
Sep

Q2

Q31

Aug

Sep1

Oct1

-

-1.9

0.7

11.4

7.1

-1.2

5.4

-3.8

(y-o-y)

3.0

5.6

6.3

-6.2

4.2

1.0

11.0

0.2

- Manufacturing

3.0

5.6

6.2

-6.6

4.3

1.0

11.4

0.3

4.1

6.8

7.1

-6.2

5.6

2.3

12.4

1.9

-2.2

0.0

2.0

-8.8

-1.8

-5.3

6.4

-7.4

2.4

5.3

6.1

-5.8

2.1

-1.0

8.8

-0.6

Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)

Mining and
manufacturing
activity2

2009

Q3

Annual

Heavy chemical industry
Light industry
Shipment
- Domestic demand

-0.7

1.7

1.5

-6.6

3.1

-0.7

12.4

-1.1

- Exports

7.1

10.3

12.4

-4.7

0.8

-1.3

4.3

-0.1

Inventory

7.3

17.3

17.3

-16.7

-14.0

-14.2

-14.0

-16.4

77.2

78.3

77.3

73.7

78.9

77.7

80.2

-

5.2

5.3

4.9

1.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

-

3

Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%)
activity
Production capacity

1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
Source: Statistics Korea

3. End-period

In November, mining and manufacturing production is projected to increase, considering a
low base effect from the previous month and improving advanced estimates of electricity
sales and exports.
Industrial electricity sales (thousand GWh)
17.9 (Jul 2009)

17.4 (Aug)

18.3 (Sep)

17.7 (Oct)

18.0 (Nov)1

28.9 (Aug)

34.1 (Sep)

34.0 (Oct)

1. Estimate

Exports (US$ billion)
32.6 (Jun 2009)

18

December 2009

32.0 (Jul)

34.3 (Nov)

6-1

Industrial production
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

6-2

Average manufacturing operation ratio
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

6-3

Inventory
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

19

7. Service sector activity
Service activity in October decreased 1.4 percent from the previous month partly due to the
H1N1 flu pandemic. From a year earlier, however, service output expanded 1.5 percent.
By business category, real estate & renting services (up 14.3%), healthcare & social welfare
services (up 11.2%) and financial & insurance services (up 4.9%) led the year-on-year
increase in the service sector.
Meanwhile, entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 6.6%) and educational services
(down 5.7%) declined from a year earlier.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Weight

2008

2009

Annual

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

-0.4

1.6

Service activity index

100

3.4

3.2

-0.4

- Wholesale & retail

Aug

Sep1

Oct1

2.2

1.0

4.5

1.5

1

22.0

1.4

3.6

-4.6

-4.0

-2.2

0.3

-1.1

3.3

1.9

- Transportation services

9.0

4.3

4.3

-3.2

-10.8

-9.5

-4.2

-5.2

0.3

-2.6

- Hotels & restaurants

7.8

0.7

1.7

-3.0

-2.4

-0.3

-2.2

-5.5

0.3

-2.7

- Information & communication services

8.4

3.5

3.4

-0.2

-1.9

0.9

1.6

0.4

3.5

1.5

- Financial & insurance services

15.3

9.7

9.6

4.5

6.6

9.8

8.7

9.7

9.5

4.9

- Real estate & renting

6.3

-2.1

-8.4

-7.5

-3.1

1.5

9.5

10.7

10.2

14.3

- Professional, scientific & technical services

4.8

2.0

1.8

0.9

-1.9

3.2

0.2

-1.8

3.3

-2.8

- Business services

2.9

4.6

3.2

0.1

-4.8

-6.6

-1.1

-0.2

-1.2

-0.6

- Educational services

10.8

1.8

-0.5

2.3

3.7

6.9

-2.6

-5.9

-0.3

-5.7

- Healthcare & social welfare services

6.0

6.3

6.1

6.5

8.6

8.1

10.0

9.7

12.1

11.2

- Entertainment, cultural & sports services

2.9

2.2

1.7

4.3

1.5

0.9

0.1

-6.9

4.8

-6.6

- Membership organizations

3.8

0.1

-1.4

-1.0

-3.4

-5.0

-1.4

-4.2

2.6

-0.7

- Sewerage & waste management

0.4

5.8

3.9

4.0

0.5

8.8

5.5

1.0

9.6

-3.4

1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
Source: Statistics Korea

Despite robust advanced indicators including credit card spending, service activity in
November is likely to remain at a similar level to the previous month mainly affected by the
H1N1 flu for which the government on November 3 raised its alert status to its highest “Red”
level.
Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %)
7.3 (Jul 2009)

20

December 2009

10.9 (Aug)

14.7 (Sep)

9.4 (Oct)

18.3 (Nov)

l es

l&

tate

ncia

tion

& re

ranc

e se

ns

&
Bus
bus iness f
ines acil
s su ity m
ppo ana
rt se gem
rvic ent
es
&
Edu
cati
ona
l se
rvic
es
Hea
serv lthcare
ices & s
ocia
l we
lfar
e
Ente
serv rtainm
ices ent
, cu
ltur
al &
spo
Me
rts
m
othe bersh
r pe ip o
rson rgan
al s izati
ervi ons
Sew
ces , re
pair
reco erage,
&
very was
& re te m
med ana
iatio gem
n ac ent,
tivit mate
ies
rials

es

atio

rvic

unic

s

omm

rant

tail

insu

&c

stau

ion

& re

ntin
g
Pro
tech fession
nica al, s
l se cien
rvic tifi
c
es

Rea

Fina

rtat

ale

& re

rma

els

Info

Hot

spo

oles

Tran

Wh

ex

7-3

l ind

7-2

Tota

7-1
Service industry

Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

Wholesale and retail sales

Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

October 2009 service industry by business

Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

21

8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in October climbed by 10,000 from a year earlier, with the
government’s efforts to create jobs.
Employment in the manufacturing sector stayed on a downward track declining by 87,000,
mainly due to falling exports. Hiring in the construction sector continued to fall with a
147,000 decrease as increased orders of civil engineering works in the public sector were
offset by weak construction in the private sector. Employment in the service sector soared by
269,000 driven by the government’s job creation policies.
(Change from same period in previous year, thousand)
2008

2009

Annual

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

Employment growth

145

97

209

173

141

54

-146

-134

-1

71

10

- Manufacturing

-52

-92

-18

-34

-52

-103

-163

-151

-143

-118

-87

- Construction

-37

-42

-22

-46

-40

-41

-43

-113

-103

-75

-147

- Services

263

250

307

300

262

187

47

155

269

278

269

- Agriculture, forestry & fishery

-37

-22

-63

-54

-38

8

14

-25

-25

-19

-29

Source: Statistics Korea

By status of workers, non-wage workers including self-employed workers plunged by
367,000 from a year earlier. Meanwhile, wage workers rose by 376,000 led by an increase of
490,000 in regular workers and 136,000 in temporary workers, although the number of daily
workers shrank by 250,000.
(Change from same period in previous year, thousand)
2008

2009

Annual

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

Employment growth

145

97

209

173

141

54

-146

-134

-1

71

10

- Wage workers

236

167

312

289

208

137

73

175

356

466

376

Regular workers

386

313

435

448

347

316

318

313

386

464

490

Temporary workers

-93

-85

-98

-96

-83

-94

-136

-5

125

136

136

Daily workers

-57

-61

-25

-63

-56

-85

-108

-133

-155

-134

-250

-92

-70

-102

-115

-66

-83

-220

-309

-357

-395

-367

-79

-111

-79

-67

-76

-95

-197

-286

-276

-324

-266

- Non-wage workers
Self-employed workers
Source: Statistics Korea

The employment rate stood at 59.3 percent, down 0.7 percentage points compared to the
same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points yearon-year to 3.2 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.5 percentage points from
a year earlier to 7.6 percent.
(Change from same period in previous year, thousand)
2008

Unemployment rate (%)
Employment rate (%)

22

December 2009

2009

Annual

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

59.5

60.0

58.5

60.3

59.9

59.4

57.4

59.3

59.1

59.2

59.3

8-1

Number of employed and employment growth
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

8-2

Share of employed by industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

8-3

Unemployment rate and number of unemployed
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

Economic Bulletin

23

9. Financial market
9.1 Stock market
The Korean stock market in November fell affected by bad news from the global economy.
The KOSPI has surpassed the 1,600 points during the month boosted by an expected
upward revision of Korea’s growth rate as well as domestic listed companies’ better
performance in the third quarter.
The Korean main bourse, however, plunged around the end of the month, as investors are
increasingly worried about the fallout from the bankruptcy of US CIT group and Dubai
World’s six-month standstill on debt repayments.
Despite a record low value of transaction this year, foreign investors continued their netbuying of Korean shares since July in line with expanded investment into emerging markets
by foreign investors.
(End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI

Stock price index

KOSDAQ

Oct 2009

Nov 2009

Change1

Oct 2009

Nov 2009

Change1

1,580.7

1,555.6

-25.1 (-1.6%)

486.5

464.3

-22.2 (-4.6%)

828.2

818.5

-9.7 (-1.2%)

77.9

75.4

-2.5 (-3.2%)

Average daily trade value

5.5

4.0

-1.5 (-27.3%)

1.7

1.6

-0.1 (-5.9%)

Foreign stock ownership

31.4

32.7

1.3 (-4.1%)

6.9

7.3

0.4 (5.8%)

Market capitalization

1. Change from the end of the previous year

9.2 Exchange rate
The won/dollar exchange rate in November fell 19.7 won from 1,182.5 won at the end of
October to wrap up the month at 1,162.8 won.
The exchange rate dropped to 1,153 won, the lowest this year, on November 18, as the dollar
remained weak after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s decision to continue its
expansionary monetary policy. It, thereafter, turned to an increase as investors’ appetite for
safe assets grew amid Dubai World’s request for a standstill on debt payments.
The won/yen exchange rate rose to the 1,300 won range with the yen’s appreciation.
(End-period)
2006

2007

2008

Dec

Dec

Dec

2009
Oct

Nov

Change1

Won/Dollar

929.8

936.1

1,259.5

1,182.5

1,162.8

8.3

Won/100Yen

783.4

828.6

1,396.8

1,299.3

1,348.8

3.6

1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.

24

December 2009

9-1

Stock prices

9-2

Foreign exchange rate (month-end)

9-3

Recent foreign exchange rate

Economic Bulletin

25

9.3 Bond market
Treasury bond yields were down in November as the Bank of Korea is expected to maintain
its loose monetary policy while foreign investors posted a net buying of KTB (Korea Treasury
Bond) futures.
The yields fell at an even faster pace toward the end of the month as demand for safer assets
increased in the aftermath of Dubai World’s default on its debt payments.
(End-period)
2005

2006

2007

2008

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Sep

Oct

2009
Nov

Call rate (1 day)

3.76

4.60

5.02

3.02

2.00

2.01

2.01

0

CD (91 days)

4.09

4.86

5.82

3.93

2.75

2.79

2.79

0

Change1

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

5.08

4.92

5.74

3.41

4.39

4.44

4.10

-34

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

5.52

5.29

6.77

7.72

5.53

5.58

5.21

-37

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

5.36

5.00

5.78

3.77

4.81

4.94

4.61

-33

1. Basis point changes in August 2009 from end December 2008

9.4 Money supply & money market
The M2 (monthly average) in September expanded 10.0 percent from a year earlier.
Excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009,
the year-on-year M2 growth stood at 9.5 percent, a similar level to the previous month’s 9.6
percent.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2007

2009

2008

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug

Sep

Sep1

-5.2

-1.8 -12.4

-0.1

2.1

2.7

5.0

10.8

17.6

17.6

18.5

18.5

19.5

367.1

M2

11.2

14.3

13.3

15.3

14.7

14.5

13.8

11.5

10.1

10.1

9.7

10.0

10.0 1,535.3

Lf3

10.2

11.9

11.6

12.8

12.1

12.2

11.2

8.8

7.3

7.3

7.7

8.0

7.7 1,956.14

M1+

2

Annual

1. Balance at end September 2009, trillion won
2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs
3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
4. Balance at end August 2009, trillion won

Despite an increase in time deposits with higher deposit rates, bank deposits in October
reversed course to a decrease with industrial financial debentures transferred (16.5 trillion
won) in accordance with the split-up of the Korea Development Bank and the establishment
of the Korea Financial Corporation.
Asset management company (AMC) deposits continued to decline due to redemptions of
equity funds as well as less money inflows into money market funds (MMFs) with fund
withdrawals by individual and corporate investors.
(Monthly change, end-period, trillion won)
2007
Annual

2008

2009

Oct

Annual

Oct

Sep

Oct

Nov

Oct1

Bank deposits

59.6

8.4

104.3

22.7

13.5

16.5

-6.8

1,014.3

AMC deposits

61.8

13.0

63.0

2.4

-7.8

-18.3

-7.3

338.5

1. Balance at end October 2009

26

December 2009

9-4

Interest rates
Source: The Bank of Korea

9-5

Total money supply
Source: The Bank of Korea

9-6

Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end)
Source: The Bank of Korea
* Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.

Economic Bulletin

27

10. Balance of payments
Korea’s current account recorded a US$4.94 billion surplus in October.
The goods account surplus expanded to US$5.72 billion from US$5.28 billion a month earlier
as exports showed strong performance led by vessels.
The service account deficit decreased to US$1.13 billion from the previous month’s US$1.63
billion, due to the improved travel account.
Despite an increase in dividend payments, the income account surplus remained at a level
similar to the previous month to record US$540 million as expanded foreign reserve boosted
interest income.
The current transfer account deficit slightly increased to US$190 million from the previous
month’s US$160 million with decreased inflow of overseas remittance.
(US$ billion)
2008

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Oct Jan-Oct

Current account

-6.41

-5.21

-0.13

-8.58

7.52

8.58

13.17

10.31

4.03

4.94

37.00

- Goods balance

5.99

-1.22

5.72

-3.48

4.97

8.35

17.63

14.74

5.28

5.72

46.43

- Service balance

-16.73

-5.07

-4.27

-5.69

-1.70

-1.88

-4.02

-5.32

-1.63

-1.13

-12.35

- Income balance

5.11

1.69

-0.65

1.36

2.71

0.83

0.18

1.62

0.55

0.54

3.17

- Current transfers

-0.77

-0.61

-0.94

-0.77

1.55

1.28

-0.61

-0.73

-0.16

-0.19

-0.26

Source: The Bank of Korea

The capital and financial account in October posted a net inflow of US$1.54 billion.
Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion)
-0.55 (Q1 2009)

8.89 (Q2)

15.05 (Q3)

7.20 (Sep)

1.54 (Oct)

The direct investment account slightly expanded the net outflow to register US$280 million
from the previous month’s deficit of US$230 million due to an increase in overseas
investment by locals.
The portfolio investment account decreased the net inflow to record US$6.13 billion from
US$7.91 billion a month earlier as foreign investment in the Korean stock market declined.
The financial derivatives account deficit rose from the previous month’s US$300 million to
post US$570 million, as revenue related to overseas financial derivative transactions
decreased.
The other investment account significantly expanded the net outflow to post US$3.74 billion
from the previous month’s deficit of US$60 million as financial institutions increased foreign
currency-denominated lending.
The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$3.5 billion in November as the
trade balance posted a surplus of US$4.05 billion.

28

December 2009

10-1 Current account balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

10-2 Travel balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

10-3 Capital & financial account balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

Economic Bulletin

29

11. Prices and international commodity prices
11.1 Prices
Consumer prices in November increased 2.4 percent month-on-month while rising 0.2
percent year-on-year.
The overall price index was up 0.2 percent month-on-month as prices of industrial goods,
which is relatively heavily weighted to the index, showed strength although prices for
agricultural, livestock and fishery products went down. Prices of agricultural, livestock and
fishery products declined 2.7 percent from the previous month due to increased supply with
the fall harvest season in full swing and favorable weather conditions.
Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in November 2009 (m-o-m, %)
Rice (-2.8), radish (-11.9), Chinese cabbage (-37.5), pumpkin (32.0), grapes (3.5), Korean beef (0.8), pork (-7.4),
scabbard fish (3.9), yellow corvina (0.4), Alaska pollack (0.1)

Prices of oil products increased 3.0 percent from a month earlier affected by strong international oil
prices and LPG price increases in November.
Prices of oil products in November 2009 (m-o-m, %)
Gasoline (2.2), diesel (3.2), kerosene (3.9), LPG for automobiles (6.6), LPG for kitchen use (6.1)

Public utility charges remained at a similar level to the previous month as an increase in local heating
fees affected by the implementation of the fuel adjustment mechanism was almost negligible.
Despite higher expenses for dining-out affected by beef price increases, personal service charges
rose mere 0.1 percent due to the continuing deflation gap and price slash in mobile data charges.

Consumer price inflation in major sectors

Month-on-Month (%)
Contribution (%p)
Year-on-Year (%)
Contribution (%p)

Total

Agricultural,
livestock & fishery
products

Industrial
products

Oil
products

Housing
rents

Public
utility

Personal
services

0.2

-2.7

1.0

3.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.18

-0.23

0.33

0.17

0.02

0.00

0.03

2.4

2.8

3.7

1.9

1.1

1.5

2.0

2.44

0.23

1.17

0.11

0.11

0.25

0.68

Source: Statistics Korea

Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 2.5 percent
year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were
up 2.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.

Consumer price inflation
2008

2009

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

-0.3

0.0

0.1

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0.3

0.2

Year-on-Year (%)

4.5

4.1

3.7

4.1

3.9

3.6

2.7

2.0

1.6

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.4

Core consumer prices (y-o-y)

5.3

5.6

5.2

5.2

4.5

4.2

3.9

3.5

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.6

2.5

(m-o-m)

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Consumer prices for basic
necessities (y-o-y)

4.0

3.0

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.0

1.8

0.5

0.4

1.3

1.7

1.5

2.3

Month-on-Month (%)

Source: Statistics Korea

30

December 2009

11-1 Prices
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)

11-2 Consumer price inflation
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)

11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)

Economic Bulletin

31

11.2. International oil and commodity prices
Fluctuating in the high-US$70s, international oil prices in November rose month-on-month
affected by the US dollar movement, oil stockpiles and new economic data.
(US$/barrel, period average)
2006

2007

2008

2009

Annual

Annual

Annual

Dec

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dubai crude

61.6

68.4

94.3

40.5

69.4

65.0

71.4

67.7

73.2

77.7

Brent crude

65.1

72.8

97.5

40.4

68.6

64.6

72.9

67.5

72.8

76.7

WTI crude

66.0

72.3

99.9

41.6

69.7

64.2

71.1

69.4

75.8

78.1

Source: KOREAPDS

Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel)
Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)

Despite the won’s depreciation, domestic prices of oil products went up as strong
international oil product prices after mid-October were reflected with the time lag.
(Won/liter, period average)
2006

2007

2008

2009

Annual

Annual

Annual

Dec

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Gasoline prices

1,492

1,526

1,692

1,329

1,607

1,639

1,670

1,681

1,627

1,655

Diesel prices

1,228

1,273

1,614

1,303

1,389

1,428

1,447

1,453

1,409

1,452

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Prices of non-ferrous metals excluding nickel continued to rise while international prices of
grain including corn, wheat and soybean rose due to the weak dollar and increased export
demand.
Prices of non-ferrous metals excluding nickel increased with expectations of economic
recovery amid the weak dollar and buoyant data on US home sales. On the other hand,
nickel prices fell affected by concerns over oversupply and the delay in stainless steel
demand recovery.
Corn and wheat prices rose due to the weak dollar and increased demand while the soybean
price moved upward with strong US demand.
Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in November 2009 (m-o-m, %)
Corn (5.0), wheat (8.9), soybean (4.7), bronze (6.2), aluminum (3.5), nickel (-8.3), zinc (6.1), lead (2.9), tin (1.8)

Reuters index*

(Period average)

2006

2007

2008

Annual

Annual

Annual

Dec

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

2,019

2,400

2,536

1,767

2,117

2,082

2,159

2,147

2,197

2,243

* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
Source: KOREAPDS

32

December 2009

2009

11-4 International oil prices
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service

11-6 International commodity prices
Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index)
* CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

Economic Bulletin

33

12. Real estate market
12.1 Housing market
In November, nationwide apartment sales prices were up 0.3 percent month-on-month. The
pace of increase, however, decelerated for two straight months.
Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area, which is under the influence of low
season, financial regulations and supply of Bogeumjari Houses, remained steady. On the
other hand, apartment sales in other cities, especially metropolitan cities (up 0.8%),
increased relatively significantly.

Nationwide apartment sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2006 2007

2008

2009

Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov Dec Annual Q1

Q2

Q3

Oct Nov Nov21 Nov91 Nov161 Nov231

Nationwide

13.8

2.1

Seoul

24.1

Gangnam2

27.6

Gangbuk3
Seoul metropolitan area

2.3

-0.1 -0.5 -0.5

1.4 -1.2

0.4

1.5

0.4

0.3

0.05

0.05

0.06

3.6

3.2

-0.3 -0.8 -1.6

2.6 -1.3

1.0

2.6

0.3

0.0

0.01 -0.03 -0.05

0.00

0.5

-1.9

-0.5 -1.2 -2.0

4.0 -1.1

1.7

3.1

0.3

0.0

0.02 -0.03 -0.07 -0.01

19.0

8.3

9.4

-0.1 -0.4 -1.3

0.9 -1.7

0.2

2.0

0.4

0.1

0.01 -0.03 -0.03

24.6

4.0

2.9

-0.3 -1.0 -1.4

0.8 -1.8

0.5

1.8

0.3

0.0

0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01

5 metropolitan cities

2.1 -0.6

1.0

0.1

0.0 -0.3

2.2 -0.7

0.3

1.3

0.6

0.8

0.12

0.16

0.14

0.15

Other cities

3.0

2.3

0.2

0.0 -0.3

1.8 -0.3

0.3

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.09

0.10

0.13

0.13

1. Weekly trends

0.3

2. Upscale area of southern Seoul

3. Northern Seoul

0.06

0.00

Source: Kookmin Bank

The rental prices continued the upward pace although the rising pace decelerated with the
beginning of the winter low season.

Nationwide apartment rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2006 2007

2008

2009

Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov Dec Annual Q1

Nationwide
Seoul
Gangnam

Q2

Q3

Oct Nov Nov51 Nov121 Nov191 Nov261

7.6

1.9

0.8

0.2 -0.4 -1.4

4.2 -1.3

0.9

2.8

0.9

0.8

0.13

0.09

0.11

0.08

11.5

2.2

-1.8

-0.2 -1.0 -2.7

7.7 -0.8

1.8

4.7

1.1

0.8

0.11

0.06

0.09

0.07

11.3

0.5

-3.6

-0.6 -1.2 -0.9

9.8 -0.1

2.4

5.1

1.1

1.0

0.12

0.13

0.13

0.09

Gangbuk3

11.8

4.6

0.5

0.2 -0.7 -2.4

5.2 -1.6

1.0

4.2

1.1

0.6

0.09 -0.02

0.04

0.04

Seoul metropolitan area

2

11.7

2.1

-0.4

0.1 -0.9 -2.2

5.5 -1.8

1.4

4.1

1.0

0.7

0.09

0.04

0.05

0.02

5 metropolitan cities

3.0

1.1

1.6

0.2

0.1 -0.4

3.2 -0.9

0.4

1.9

0.8

1.1

0.12

0.13

0.18

0.15

Other cities

4.1

2.2

2.6

0.4

0.1 -0.5

2.4 -0.4

0.5

1.0

0.5

0.7

0.20

0.19

0.17

0.15

1. Weekly trends

2. Upscale area of southern Seoul

3. Northern Seoul

Source: Kookmin Bank

Apartment sales transactions in October decreased 3.5 percent from 90,490 a month earlier
to post 87,329. The transactions were up 28.5 percent from a year earlier and 1.6 percent
compared with the monthly average recorded in the same month for the past 3 years.

Apartment sales transactions
2006
Annual

Nationwide

94

December 2009

2007

2008

Oct Annual Oct Annual Oct
110

Source: Korea Land Corporation

34

(Monthly average, thousand)

84

80

74

68

2009

Nov Dec
54

57

Jan

Feb

Mar

49

60

79

Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

76

91

81

90

87

72

81

12-1 Real estate prices
Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)

12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume
Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)

12-3 Apartment prices by region
Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)

Economic Bulletin

35

12.2 Land market
Nationwide land prices in October rose 0.30 percent, a similar level to the previous month’s
0.31 percent. The accumulated increase rate from January to October was 0.31 percent, with
land prices standing below the record high in October 2008 by 3.83 percent.
Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area continued an upward trend as Incheon and
Gyeonggi province saw land prices rising by 0.51 percent and 0.42 percent, respectively. In
addition, other cities witnessed a higher price increases.
Land price increases in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)
0.06 (Jul 2009)

0.09 (Aug)

0.12 (Sep)

0.16 (Oct)

Land prices by region

(Percentage change from previous period)
2007

2008

2009

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Oct

Nationwide

3.88

0.96

0.79

0.91

1.15

-0.31

1.23

1.46

1.18

-4.08

-1.20

0.35

0.88

0.30

Seoul

5.88

1.38

1.07

1.40

1.90

-1.00

1.83

2.17

1.59

-6.34

-1.38

0.68

1.30

0.30

Gyeonggi

4.22

1.07

0.89

1.05

1.14

-0.26

1.28

1.57

1.28

-4.28

-1.62

0.37

1.13

0.42

Incheon

4.86

1.13

1.37

1.36

1.67

2.01

-3.57

-1.39

0.53

1.16

0.51

1.24

1.28

1.12

Source: Korea Land Corporation

Nationwide land transactions in October expanded 10.9 percent or 21,000 land lots from a
year earlier to 212,000 land lots. In terms of gross area, land transactions were down 3.8
percent.
Land transactions in Gyeonggi (up 45.6%) and Incheon (up 34.7%) increased year-on-year in
terms of land lots while those of Daegu (down 25.9%) and South Jeolla province (down
17.6%) decreased.

Land sales transactions

(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)

2007

2008

Annual Annual Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

2009
Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nationwide

208

208

237

244

173

162

134

164

207

207

192

215

222

206

226

212

Seoul

33

26

31

38

20

13

13

15

20

24

22

27

26

25

28

25

Gyeonggi

49

45

50

55

37

31

26

34

41

48

45

49

50

48

56

52

Incheon

13

13

16

15

11

8

7

7

9

10

9

10

11

10

13

14

Source: Korea Land Corporation

36

December 2009

12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s
Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)

12-5 Land prices by region
Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)

12-6 Land trade volume
Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)

Economic Bulletin

37

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of the current economic
conditions, remains unchanged in October from the previous month.
The volume of imports, the domestic shipment index, the wholesale & retail sales index and
the service activity index contributed to the increase.
Components of the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index in October 2009 (m-o-m)
Volume of imports (3.2%), domestic shipment index (0.4%), wholesale & retail sales index (-0.3%), service
activity index (0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.2%), mining & manufacturing production
index (0.1%), value of construction completed(-0.1%), manufacturing operation ration index (-0.6%)

The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions,
went up 1.0 percentage point month-on-month in October. The 12-month smoothed change
in leading composite index increased 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, running on an
upward track since January.
The value of received construction orders, the composite stock price index, the indicator of
inventory cycle, the consumer expectations index, and the liquidity in the financial
institutions were up.
Components of the leading composite index rose in October 2009 (m-o-m)
Value of received construction orders (-26.4%), composite stock price index (5.2%), indicator of inventory
cycle (2.1%p), consumer expectations index (2.1%p), volume of capital goods imports (0.0%), liquidity in the
financial institutions (0.8%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (0.7%p), net terms of trade index (0.6%),
spreads between long & short term interest rate (0.1%p), value of machinery orders received (-13.8%)

2009
Jan

Feb

Jul

Aug

Sep1

Oct1

Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)

-1.9

0.0

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.4

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

92.4

92.0

96.2

96.7

96.9

96.9

(m-o-m, p)

-2.2

-0.4

0.8

0.5

0.2

0.0

0.3

1.1

1.4

1.0

0.8

1.0

-4.0

-2.9

7.8

9.1

10.2

11.3

0.1

1.1

2.1

1.3

1.1

1.1

Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
12 month smoothed change
in leading composite index (%)
(m-o-m, %p)
1. Preliminary

38

December 2009

13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
Source: Statistics Korea

13-2 Leading composite index
Source: Statistics Korea

13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices
Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

39

Policy Issues
2010 Economic Policies

Background
The current crisis is expected to bring about a fundamental paradigm shift in the world
economic order and industrial structure. There seems to be uncertainties in the world
economy which will not grow at as high a rate as it did before the crisis. In the process of
correcting the global imbalance and tightening financial regulations, disputes between
nations and re-emergence of protectionism are likely, along with competition for natural
resources and energy. Against this backdrop, the Korean government set up economic
policies for 2010, which is aimed at adapting the economy to low energy consumption,
exploring and nurturing new growth engines, boosting domestic demand, creating jobs and
strengthening social safety nets.

Key directions for 2010 economic policies
The 2010 economic policies center on improving the real economy and developing growth
potential. First of all, the government will make efforts to transform the nascent economic
recovery into robust and sustained growth that will stimulate investment and employment,
which, in turn, will result in real economy improvement.
The five major policy directions are:
1. Stabilizing the economy by continuing with the expansionary fiscal policies and
enhancing the country’s capacity to deal with external influences
2. Creating decent jobs in the private sector and pursuing active labor market policies
3. Stabilizing inflation and real estate markets, and supporting low income classes
4. Developing new growth engines and pursuing low energy consumption
5. Addressing low birth rates, ageing population and growing fiscal burden

40

December 2009

Main contents
1. Achieving sustainable economic recovery
The government will continue its expansionary fiscal measures until the private sector
rebounds, while withdrawing temporary measures as planned to ward off moral hazard.
Financial policies will remain eased with measures to brace for rising household and
corporate debts, but provisional measures to fight the global crisis will be unwound. The
government will gradually reduce temporary government jobs from 800,000 in 2009 to
550,000 in 2010, given the slow recovery of private sector employment. Government’s credit
guarantee will be extended until the first half of 2010, with the guarantee level declining
from 95 percent in 2009 to 90 percent in January 2010 and further down to 85 percent in July.
Korea will have more financial agility with flexible reserve requirements. Large-scale financial
institutions will be more closely monitored, given their considerable impact on the economy,
while banks will be banned from excessive lending. The government will also tighten
regulations on the foreign currency liquidity ratio and introduce guidelines for managing
foreign currency risks.
To enhance industrial competitiveness of the country, the government planned to nurture
high-tech SMEs by supporting their R&D projects, 350 of which will be selected for the
support. In addition, 20 components and materials which are mostly likely to replace
imports and spur large demand, will be selected for state support. Young adults with an
entrepreneurial spirit will be strongly backed by the government through a state-developed
five year program, which is designed to educate future venture businessmen and help them
start business. The Venture Investment Fund of around 3.5 trillion won will be set up by
2012. Regulations on M&A and corporate spin-off will be eased.
Plant exports and exports by SMEs and ship builders will be strongly backed: Korea
Eximbank will increase export financing from 53 trillion won in 2009 to 60 trillion won in
2010. The Korea Export Insurance Corporation will raise its support for export insurance from
170 trillion won in 2009 to 190 trillion won in 2010.

2. Creating Jobs
The government will found a basis for creating decent jobs in the private sector by
innovating service industries and increasing job market flexibility. Measures to develop
markets for professional services will be drawn up, which will be followed by law revisions.
The Medical Service Development Plan is now being made into regulations, and discussions
over allowing for-profit hospitals which accept funds from private investors are underway.
Industries creating more jobs and higher added value will receive more support: The
examples of the industries are social welfare services such as day caring and nursing, and
content and leisure industries. The government will provide assistance to municipal

Economic Bulletin

41

governments when they develop regionally specialized industries.
Regulations will be modified in a way to facilitate reforming job markets and stabilizing
labor-management relations. Rules concerning irregular workers will be examined based on
employment situations of irregular workers. The two-year limit of a contract term will be
applied with exceptions, for example a university lecturer position not to be affected by the
law. The government will encourage part-time employment to promote female hiring and
create family-friendly work environment.
As the private sector employment has not recovered yet, government’ s job creating efforts
will continue until private sector employment revives: Budgets for Hope Employment Project
through which 100,000 will find jobs and the internship program to recruit 37,000 college
graduates will be spent in the first half of 2010. In addition, job seekers will find more
opportunities in social welfare fields with 140,000 jobs in 2010, an increase of 11,000 from
2009’s 129,000.
To attract foreign investment to industries creating quality jobs, the government planned to
expand tax incentives and cash support: Foreign investment in future growth engines will be
eligible for the same tax exemption and reduction given to the investment in high-tech
industries. Government’s cash support will be expanded to small-scale foreign investments
along with an increased ceiling of the cash support.

3. Supporting working classes
The government proposed policy responses to improve livelihood of the working class as
belows: First, the government will stabilize consumer prices and real estate markets;
second, provide more jobs and educational opportunities; and third, strengthen social safety
nets. Measures to control inflation and real estate markets cover promoting fair competition
among producers, tightening mortgage loan conditions, and supplying more houses low
income classes can afford.
The government will keep pushing toward social safety nets not leaving out those in
desperate need of help. Social safety nets to be introduced in 2010 are aids for single
mothers at the age of 24 or younger, monthly pension plans for the seriously handicapped,
and financial aids for those with Alzheimer’s disease. Farmers and fishermen will pay
reduced premiums for the public health insurance and pension plan, and assistance for
farming and fishing will be available on their request in case of accidents or diseases
outbreaks.
Those receiving basic living support will be eligible for a savings account called ‘Raising
Hope’ designed to help become self-reliant. Regarding college loans, College students will
be able to choose the Income Contingent Repayment option from the first semester of 2010.
More students will benefit from after school vouchers, with which students pay for after

42

December 2009

school programs. The number of microcredit institutions will be increased from 30 to 200300 in 2010, along with the introduction of micro-insurance, which will use public funds from
the postal service insurance. Those from the low income class will be eligible for the
insurance at a monthly premium of 10,000 won.

4. Green growth and low energy consumption
Green industries and the four-river restoration project will be a foundation for a low-energy
consuming economy, and will expand Korea’s capacity to respond to future climate change.
To develop green industries, the government will certify green enterprises and technologies
from January 2010 to facilitate funding from private investors. Furthermore, certified green
technologies will be financed long-term at low cost through financial facilities exclusive for
green technologies including green savings and bonds. Existing manufacturers will be
strongly recommended to improve energy efficiency.
The government allocated more R&D budgets to green technologies from 2 trillion won in
2009 to 2.2 trillion in 2010, which will be appropriated to developing core technologies such
as offshore wind power generators and secondary batteries. Tax incentives will be increased
for R&D investment in those technologies from the current tax deduction of 3-6 percent to 20
percent for new growth engines, and 25 percent for core technologies. Funds for new growth
engines, worth 200 billion won, will be created, and existing funds will be attracted into early
investment in those fields.
The four river restoration project will step into the second phase in 2010, with 60 percent of
dredging and embankment construction completed by the end of the year and
compensation for land by the first half.
To promote energy saving, the current energy pricing system will gradually be changed in a
way to reflect fuel costs. To help develop technologies for clean energy production, CO2
emissions reduction and high energy efficiency, 760 billion won are earmarked in 2010, up
from 2009’s 640 billion.

5. Addressing future challenges
The Korean government set up measures to address future challenges such as low birth
rates and growing mid-to long-term fiscal burden. On top of that, a solid basis for policy
making and new economic indices will be developed, while current methods used to
produce economic indicators being improved.
Government’s grants for In Vitro Fertilization will be expanded to couples earning below 150
percent of the national average income from those earning below 130 percent of the urban
average income. Grants for artificial fertilization will be added in 2010.

Economic Bulletin

43

Working parents with more than two kids will be offered various supports for child delivery
and rearing. More working parents will be eligible for education fee support as the income
bar for the support will be lowered. 70 percent of the low income bracket will be provided
with free education for second children and later ones.
The government will keep a total fiscal operating cost increase below one percent. Tax
expenditure budget will be introduced in 2010 to manage fiscal spending in a more
integrated way. Budgets will be spent more transparently with the introduction of the
accrual-based double entry accounting system. Introduction of Asset Liability Management
is under consideration, as a way to effectively manage the pension fund. Cooperated efforts
to improve financial soundness of the public health insurance will be made by the related
authorities.
Methods used to produce major economic indices will be improved to reduce a gap between
the indices and the real market. New housing market indicators will be introduced to show
the current market and future supply and demand. Indices reflecting changes affected by
low carbon green growth, multicultural families and ageing population will be developed.

44

December 2009

Economic
News Briefing

Q3 GDP growth revised upward to 3.2% (Preliminary)
Korea’s real GDP expanded 3.2 percent from a quarter earlier (seasonally adjusted) in the
third quarter, up 0.3 percentage points from the advanced estimate of 2.9 percent released
on October 26. From a year earlier, GDP grew 0.9 percent compared with the initial estimate
of a 0.6 percent rise. It was the fastest quarter-on-quarter growth since the first quarter of
2002, when GDP grew 3.8 percent from the previous quarter. The upward revision reflects
improved economic data including September industrial output.

GDP by production and expenditure*

(Percentage change from previous period)
20081

20091

Annual

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

GDP

2.2

0.2
(3.1)2

-5.1
(-3.4)

0.1
(-4.2)

2.6
(-2.2)

3.2
(0.9)

Agriculture, forestry
and fishery

5.5

0.6

-0.1

-0.1

-1.7

4.9 (3.1)

Manufacturing

3.1

0.1

-11.9

-3.4

8.9

9.8 (1.6)

-2.4

1.1

-4.2

5.9

-0.2

-0.5 (0.7)

Construction
Services

2.5

0.5

-1.4

0.3

1.1

0.7 (0.9)

Private consumption

0.9

0.0

-4.6

0.4

3.6

1.5 (0.8)

Facility investment

-2.0

0.2

-14.2

-11.2

10.1

10.4 (-7.4)

Construction investment

-3.0

5.2

1.7

-2.0 (2.7)

3

-2.1

0.1

4

4.1

-0.9

-12.6

-3.4

14.7

5.2 (1.8)

Goods imports4

4.6

1.2

-15.7

-6.2

7.4

8.6 (-7.9)

Domestic demand

1.4

0.8

-7.3

-2.6

1.3

4.1 (-4.4)

Goods exports

*At 2005 chained prices, seasonally adjusted terms
1. Preliminary
2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms.
3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services,
public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included.
4. FOB basis
Economic Bulletin

45

OECD, KDI upgrade Korea’s growth forecast
On November 19, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
raised the 2009 growth outlook for Korea to 0.1 percent from the previous projection of
minus 2.2 percent. The international organization also lifted the nation’s 2010 growth
forecast to 4.4 percent from the previous estimate of 3.5 percent. The Paris-based agency
attributed the faster-than-expected recovery of Korea to buoyant exports and expansionary
fiscal policy. The international body noted that although the impact of fiscal stimulus will
fade in 2010, a sustained pick-up in exports is projected to help boost output growth to 4 to
4.5 percent in both 2010 and 2011, with a rebound in domestic demand and a marked fall in
unemployment.
Meanwhile, Korea Development Institute (KDI), a government-sponsored think tank,
predicted that Korea’s GDP will expand 0.2 percent this year before rising 5.5 percent in
2010. That compares with the previous forecast of a 0.7 percent contraction and a 4.2
percent expansion in 2009 and 2010, respectively.

OECD Outlook for Korea’s GDP

(Percentage change from previous period)
2009

2011

2010

Jun 2009 Outlook

Nov 2009 Outlook

Jun 2009 Outlook

GDP growth

-2.2

0.1

3.5

4.4

4.2

- Private consumption

-2.6

0.2

3.0

2.9

3.2

- Gross fixed capital
formation
- Exports of goods
& services
Net exports1

-5.1

-1.7

6.6

3.6

4.9

-10.5

-0.1

7.0

13.4

12.9

2.3

4.4

-2.0

-0.4

0.3

Unemployment rate

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.6

3.4

Consumer price index

2.5

2.7

2.0

2.8

3.0

3.3

4.6

1.7

1.3

1.0

-1.2

-1.8

-2.3

0.4

1.1

Current account balance

2

General government
financial balance2

Nov 2009 Outlook

Nov 2009 Outlook

1. Contribution to GDP growth (%p)
2. As a percentage of GDP

Korea and US vow to broaden common grounds on key issues
Korean President Lee Myung-bak and the US President Barack Obama held summit talks in
Seoul on November 19. The leaders discussed several issues including North Korean nuclear
solutions, Korea-US free trade agreement (FTA) and other global issues including G20
Summit, green growth, climate change, etc.
They reaffirmed the solid Korea-US alliance and agreed to further develop the partnership to
an exemplary strategic alliance of the 21st century. Regarding the North Korean nuclear issue,
President Lee and President Obama shared the view that the issue requires a definite and
comprehensive resolution, or “Grand Bargain”, and agreed to closely consult on measures

46

December 2009

to elaborate and implement the approach. Meanwhile, both sides recognized the economic
and strategic importance of the Korea-US FTA and committed to work together to move the
agreement forward. In addition, the two leaders highly praised the results of the G20
Summit held in Pittsburgh and promised to cooperate for the success of the upcoming G20
Summit in Korea.

Korea proposes drastic target for greenhouse gas reduction
Korea has set its voluntary target to cut greenhouse gas emission by 30 percent from its
business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2020, the strongest level of commitment recommended to
developing countries by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Korea aims at curtailing its greenhouse gas emission to 569 million tons in 2020, down 4
percent from the 590 million tons it produced in 2005 and 30 percent below the projected
813 million tons it would produce in 2020, announced the government on November 17. The
plan is the most ambitious of three possible measures set out in July, and could put pressure
on developed nations to act more aggressively to fight global warming.
Korea’s reduction target reflects President Lee Myung-bak’s ambitious “green growth and
low carbon” policy. President Lee said in a statement that while the emission reduction
would present “short-term burdens” it would also bring “broader national gains.” He added
that Korea would be ready for industrialized countries’ carbon trade tariffs and could
strengthen its energy security and acquire market share first in rapidly growing green
sectors through aggressive greenhouse gas reduction.

Korea’s accession to the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) approved
Korea has been accepted as a member to the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of
the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on November 25. The
DAC is the principal body through which the OECD deals with issues relating to co-operation
with developing countries.
In order to accept a country as its member, the agency assess the size of a country’s aid
program, the existence of appropriate institutions and policies to mange aid, the quality of a
country’s statistical reporting on ODA efforts, and a country’s ability and willingness to
implement important DAC recommendations. Korea’s gaining membership is significant
since it is the first nation that has successfully moved from an aid recipient to an aid donor
since the establishment of the OECD. As with the inclusion as a member into the DAC at this
time, Korea has become a member of all 25 sub-committees of the OECD.

Economic Bulletin

47

Meanwhile, the 2nd Korea-Africa forum was held in Seoul on November 24. In the joint
declaration, Korea and the African Union’s member states vowed to work together on social
and economic assistance projects. In addition, the Korean government has decided to
double its official development assistance (ODA) levels to the African region, invite 5,000
trainees, and send over 1,000 volunteers by 2012.

Korea announces strategies for external economic policy
On December 4, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced strategies for external
economic policy for 2010-2013 to secure new growth engines, strengthen global and intraregional partnerships, enhance contributions and leadership in international community,
and develop external infrastructure.
According to the blueprint, the government plans to set up FTA strategies to secure new
growth engines and link them with high value added services such as legal and accounting
services. Consequently, service industries such as law, accounting, medical care and
education will be pushed for strategic market opening. Regulations on real estate including
price cap will also be lifted in free economic zones (FEZs) to attract foreign investment.
In addition, the plan includes measures to improve overseas competitiveness of small-and
medium-sized enterprises, globalize the financial sector, and upgrade the country’s official
development assistance (ODA) to developing countries. It is the first time for the
government to establish a mid-to long-term plan on external economic policies.

Korea introduces measures to strengthen forex soundness
The Financial Services Commission (FSC) on November 19 unveiled measures to help local
firms better manage foreign-exchange (forex) risks and prevent a foreign liquidity crunch.
The steps follow a draft plan of “Financial Institutions’ Forex Soundness and Strengthened
Supervision” announced on September 25.
Korean banks are required to hold at least 2 percent of their foreign-currency assets in safe
assets carrying an investment rating of ‘A’ or higher. From early 2010, both local banks and
branches of foreign banks are not allowed to trade forex forwards worth more than 125
percent of the value of exports to prevent excessive forex hedging. Asset-management
companies will be required to provide customers more information on forex hedge costs and
effects through prospectus and introduce investment products with different forex hedge
ratios. In addition, the minimum ratio of mid-to long-term foreign financing in foreign loan
portfolio (mid-to long-term financing / mid-to long-tern lending) at local banks will be raised
to 90 percent from the current level of 80 percent. The FSC will work towards tightening it to
100 percent or more in the first half of 2010.

48

December 2009

Bank of Korea expands inflation target band for 2010-2012
On November 26, the Bank of Korea set a new inflation target for 2010-2012. The target
inflation range has been expanded to between 2 percent and 4 percent, compared with a
2.5-3.5 percent range set for 2007-2009. With respect to broadening the inflation range from
0.5 percentage point to

1 percentage point, the bank noted uncertainties in prices would

likely to increase between 2010 and 2012 as inflation environments over the period would be
significantly different from the period before the global financial crisis. The inflation target
for the next horizon will be set before the end 2012 in order to ensure the continuity of
monetary policy.

Korea to become the 9th largest exporter this year
Korea is set to become the ninth largest exporter this year thanks to a relatively smaller
contraction in exports amid the global economic downturn. For the first nine months of the
year, the nation’s exports posted US$260 billion, the ninth largest in the world.
Korea saw exports decrease of 20.9 percent during the January to September period, which
compares with a 27.8 percent contraction of worldwide exports. The Korean government
forecasts the country’s trade surplus to register a record high of US$40 billion this year.
Meanwhile, the Korean government will make every effort to open the door wider for
exporters through free trade agreements (FTAs) and lower transportation-related costs by
advancing logistics system at industrial parks, said the Ministry of Knowledge Economy on
November 30 on occasion of the country’s 46th Trade Day, an annual event. The government
hopes Korea to become the world’s eighth largest exporter by the year 2014.

Economic Bulletin

49

50

December 2009

Statistical
Appendices
Tables & Figures
1. National accounts
2. Production, shipment and inventory
3. Production capacity and operation ratio
4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment,
and estimated facility investment index
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
9. Balance of payments (I)
10. Balance of payments (II)
11. Prices
12. Employment
13. Financial indicators
14. Monetary indicators
15. Exchange rates

Economic Bulletin

51

1. National accounts
(year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices)
Real GDP
Period

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008P

Gross fixed capital formation

Final
consumption
expenditure

Agri., fores.
& fisheries

Manufacturing

7.2
2.8
4.6
4.0
5.2
5.1
2.2

-2.2
-5.4
9.1
1.3
1.5
4.0
5.5

8.7
5.4
10.0
6.2
8.1
7.2
3.1

8.1
0.5
1.0
4.6
5.1
5.1
1.6

Construction

Facilities

7.1
4.4
2.1
1.9
3.4
4.2
-1.7

6.2
8.5
1.3
-0.4
0.5
1.4
-2.1

7.3
-1.5
3.8
5.3
8.2
9.3
-2.0

2002

I
II
III
IV

6.6
7.0
6.8
8.1

2.3
-2.4
-1.1
-5.5

5.1
7.2
9.3
13.1

10.3
9.1
7.7
5.7

7.5
7.9
3.2
9.6

11.4
7.2
-1.5
9.4

2.6
7.7
9.8
9.1

2003

I
II
III
IV

3.5
1.8
2.0
3.9

0.7
-1.6
-9.6
-8.0

5.4
3.1
4.3
8.5

2.0
0.3
0.0
-0.4

5.1
4.7
2.8
5.0

8.2
8.4
8.3
9.0

2.9
-0.7
-5.8
-2.2

2004

I
II
III
IV

5.2
5.9
4.8
2.7

8.2
7.6
8.3
11.6

10.9
12.9
10.4
6.2

-0.1
1.3
1.0
1.8

2.3
4.9
3.1
-1.4

5.3
4.2
1.2
-3.5

-0.6
6.4
7.7
1.8

2005

I
II
III
IV

2.7
3.4
4.5
5.1

0.4
4.8
3.8
-3.1

4.8
3.9
6.7
9.3

2.7
4.7
5.9
4.9

-0.3
1.8
1.5
3.9

-3.1
0.9
-0.3
0.3

3.4
2.8
4.1
10.8

2006

I
II
III
IV

6.1
5.1
5.0
4.6

3.9
-0.3
-1.4
4.2

9.4
9.1
8.7
5.4

5.8
4.9
4.6
5.1

3.8
0.1
4.0
5.7

1.9
-4.2
-0.5
5.1

7.2
8.0
12.0
5.7

2007

I
II
III
IV

4.5
5.3
4.9
5.7

1.6
7.0
8.2
-0.7

4.5
7.2
6.3
10.2

5.1
5.4
5.3
4.7

7.3
5.7
1.5
3.1

4.4
2.0
-0.2
0.4

12.6
13.0
4.0
8.0

2008P

I
II
III
IV

5.5
4.3
3.1
-3.4

7.4
4.4
4.2
6.4

9.1
8.4
5.6
-9.1

3.9
2.6
2.0
-1.9

-0.5
0.6
1.8
-7.3

-1.9
-0.3
0.2
-5.6

1.5
1.1
4.3
-14.0

2009P

I
II
III

-4.2
-2.2
0.9

1.5
-1.2
3.1

-13.6
-7.3
1.6

-2.0
0.9
1.7

-8.1
-2.7
-0.8

1.6
3.7
2.7

-23.5
-15.9
-7.4

P: Preliminary
Source: The Bank of Korea

52

December 2009

Growth rate by economic activity

Growth rate by expenditure on GDP

Economic Bulletin

53

2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)

Period

2007
2008

Production
index

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Shipment
index

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Inventory
index

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Service
production
index

Y-o-Y
change (%)

115.9
119.4

6.9
3.0

115.3
118.1

7.2
2.4

117.2
125.7

5.6
7.3

112.2
116.0

6.8
3.4

2007

I
II
III
IV

109.6
114.9
112.9
126.2

4.1
6.3
6.1
10.9

109.6
115.2
111.9
124.7

5.2
7.1
5.6
10.5

114.0
114.5
112.7
117.2

5.0
4.1
2.9
5.6

106.7
111.2
112.6
118.1

5.5
6.5
7.4
7.4

2008

I
II
III
IV

121.6
125.1
119.2
111.9

10.9
8.9
5.6
-11.3

119.6
122.8
117.8
112.1

9.1
6.6
5.3
-10.1

123.7
133.1
132.2
125.7

8.5
16.2
17.3
7.3

113.8
116.5
116.2
117.6

6.7
4.8
3.2
-0.4

2009

I
II
III P

102.7
117.4
124.2

-15.5
-6.2
4.2

102.0
115.7
120.3

-14.7
-5.8
2.1

116.5
110.9
113.7

-5.8
-16.7
-14.0

113.3
118.4
118.6

-0.4
1.6
2.1

2007

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

112.8
100.2
115.7
113.8
115.8
115.1
113.4
113.7
111.6
128.6
127.6
122.5

8.7
-0.2
3.5
6.4
5.8
6.7
13.6
9.0
-3.0
16.1
7.7
9.4

110.3
101.7
116.8
114.6
116.0
114.9
112.6
112.5
110.6
126.3
126.1
121.6

8.3
2.0
5.1
7.5
6.6
6.9
14.3
7.3
-3.5
15.6
7.8
8.6

118.6
115.6
114.0
111.8
114.2
114.5
115.6
115.6
112.7
115.0
114.9
117.2

10.8
8.4
5.0
4.0
3.7
4.1
2.8
5.5
2.9
4.9
4.3
5.6

105.9
102.8
111.4
109.4
112.1
112.1
112.1
112.9
112.8
115.3
115.6
123.4

4.3
6.7
5.5
5.4
6.2
8.1
10.0
7.9
4.5
9.3
6.7
6.2

2008

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

126.0
110.9
127.8
126.1
126.1
123.1
123.1
115.8
118.6
126.2
110.0
99.6

11.7
10.7
10.5
10.8
8.9
7.0
8.6
1.8
6.3
-1.9
-13.8
-18.7

121.7
109.7
127.3
124.5
123.5
120.3
121.5
114.5
117.3
124.0
109.5
102.8

10.3
7.9
9.0
8.6
6.5
4.7
7.9
1.8
6.1
-1.8
-13.2
-15.5

123.9
124.4
123.7
124.8
128.9
133.1
132.4
132.3
132.2
135.1
133.4
125.7

4.5
7.6
8.5
11.6
12.9
16.2
14.5
14.4
17.3
17.5
16.1
7.3

114.2
109.3
118.0
116.3
117.7
115.5
116.8
115.1
116.8
116.9
113.9
121.9

7.8
6.3
5.9
6.3
5.0
3.0
4.2
1.9
3.5
1.4
-1.5
-1.2

2009

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9P
10P

93.9
99.8
114.4
115.8
114.7
121.7
124.0
117.0
131.7
126.5

-25.5
-10.0
-10.5
-8.2
-9.0
-1.1
0.7
1.0
11.0
0.2

93.2
99.5
113.2
114.5
112.8
119.8
119.9
113.4
127.6
123.2

-23.4
-9.3
-11.1
-8.0
-8.7
-0.4
-1.3
-1.0
8.8
-0.6

124.4
118.1
116.5
112.6
111.4
110.9
112.7
113.5
113.7
112.9

0.4
-5.1
-5.8
-9.8
-13.6
-16.7
-14.9
-14.2
-14.0
-16.4

113.0
109.6
117.2
118.5
118.1
118.7
117.9
116.2
122.1
118.7

-1.1
0.3
-0.7
1.9
0.3
2.8
0.9
1.0
4.5
1.5

P: Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea

54

December 2009

3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2

Period

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Operation
ratio index
(2005=100)

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Average
operation
ratio (%)

109.7
115.4

5.4
5.2

100.4
96.8

0.1
-3.6

80.1
77.2

Production
capacity index
(2005=100)

2007
2008
2007

I
II
III
IV

107.5
108.3
110.2
112.6

4.5
4.5
6.0
6.4

97.2
102.6
96.2
105.5

-2.1
0.7
-1.7
3.4

78.9
79.9
80.1
81.3

2008

I
II
III
IV

114.0
115.3
116.0
116.5

6.0
6.5
5.3
3.5

98.9
102.7
95.1
90.6

1.7
0.1
-1.1
-14.1

80.8
80.4
78.3
69.3

2009

I
II
IIIP

116.9
117.5
119.3

2.5
1.9
2.8

80.7
94.3
97.6

-18.4
-8.2
2.6

65.8
73.7
78.9

2007 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

107.2
107.5
107.7
107.9
108.2
108.9
109.7
110.2
110.8
112.3
112.5
113.0

4.4
4.6
4.3
4.5
4.2
4.9
5.8
6.1
6.1
6.5
6.3
6.5

99.8
88.2
103.6
101.5
103.9
102.5
98.3
96.6
93.8
109.4
107.4
99.7

2.6
-7.2
-1.9
0.7
0.9
0.7
7.3
1.4
-12.3
9.6
0.1
0.9

78.5
79.5
78.8
78.8
80.5
80.4
80.6
81.1
78.6
81.9
81.0
80.9

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

113.8
113.8
114.3
114.7
115.5
115.7
115.7
116.0
116.2
116.3
116.3
116.8

6.2
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.7
6.2
5.5
5.3
4.9
3.6
3.4
3.4

102.9
89.2
104.6
104.2
103.0
100.8
99.4
91.9
94.1
103.8
89.1
78.9

3.1
1.1
1.0
2.7
-0.9
-1.7
1.1
-4.9
0.3
-5.1
-17.0
-20.9

81.3
80.2
80.9
81.0
80.0
80.2
79.2
78.4
77.3
77.3
68.4
62.3

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9P
10P

116.8
116.9
117.1
117.2
117.2
118.2
118.8
119.2
119.9
120.2

2.6
2.7
2.4
2.2
1.5
2.2
2.7
2.8
3.2
3.4

72.9
78.8
90.4
93.1
92.2
97.5
98.4
90.9
103.4
99.1

-29.2
-11.7
-13.6
-10.7
-10.5
-3.3
-1.0
-1.1
9.9
-4.5

61.4
66.9
69.2
71.5
72.9
76.6
78.7
77.7
80.3
77.3

P: Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

55

4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)

Period

2007
2008

Consumer
goods
sales
index

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Durable
goods

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Semi-durable
goods

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Non-durable
goods

Y-o-Y
change (%)

109.3
110.4

5.1
1.0

124.7
127.1

9.6
1.9

108.1
105.5

3.9
-2.4

108.5
109.3

5.2
0.7

2007

I
II
III
IV

106.6
108.3
107.1
115.1

5.2
4.3
7.2
3.6

119.6
124.6
126.0
128.6

16.6
12.5
10.2
0.8

99.9
110.1
94.1
128.5

5.4
1.5
3.6
5.4

106.6
107.6
110.5
109.4

4.3
3.5
8.4
5.0

2008

I
Il
III
IV

111.3
111.4
108.6
110.3

4.4
2.9
1.4
-4.2

131.0
135.5
126.0
115.9

9.5
8.7
0.0
-9.9

103.7
107.8
94.7
115.8

3.8
-2.1
0.6
-9.9

108.6
107.9
111.8
109.0

1.9
0.3
1.2
-0.4

2009

I
II
IIIP

105.9
113.2
112.3

-4.9
1.6
3.4

113.2
140.9
138.5

-13.6
4.0
10.1

102.8
108.1
94.9

-0.9
0.3
0.2

107.1
109.0
114.0

-1.4
1.0
2.0

2007 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

106.2
103.6
110.1
106.6
111.3
107.0
105.0
103.6
112.6
113.4
113.9
118.1

0.4
10.3
5.6
3.8
5.6
3.6
9.1
5.8
6.6
6.8
3.9
0.5

118.7
111.2
128.8
120.5
126.5
126.8
130.5
127.0
120.5
124.8
129.1
131.8

22.0
11.5
16.2
13.9
14.3
9.4
20.7
11.4
-0.3
11.7
4.0
-10.3

98.0
91.5
110.2
111.5
116.2
102.5
94.4
80.0
107.8
123.9
130.0
131.7

4.6
5.7
5.8
-0.1
1.8
2.7
3.2
2.8
4.6
8.2
4.3
3.9

104.4
107.4
108.1
105.0
110.3
107.4
105.3
109.6
116.7
109.3
106.6
112.2

-4.9
16.0
3.7
3.3
5.0
1.9
8.7
5.7
10.9
4.1
5.4
5.3

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

111.7
107.2
115.1
113.0
114.8
106.3
109.3
105.9
110.5
109.5
108.6
112.8

5.2
3.5
4.5
6.0
3.1
-0.7
4.1
2.2
-1.9
-3.4
-4.7
-4.5

129.5
118.7
144.8
140.6
137.6
128.2
141.1
121.5
115.4
124.4
109.0
114.4

9.1
6.7
12.4
16.7
8.8
1.1
8.1
-4.3
-4.2
-0.3
-15.6
-13.2

104.5
97.3
109.2
109.2
112.5
101.8
98.0
87.1
99.1
112.5
121.2
113.8

6.6
6.3
-0.9
-2.1
-3.2
-0.7
3.8
8.9
-8.1
-9.2
-6.8
-13.6

108.1
107.9
109.8
108.1
111.7
103.9
105.7
111.4
118.2
105.8
107.0
114.3

3.5
0.5
1.6
3.0
1.3
-3.3
0.4
1.6
1.3
-3.2
0.4
1.9

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9P
10P

108.0
100.7
109.1
108.6
116.6
114.3
111.3
107.9
117.8
120.2

-3.3
-6.1
-5.2
-3.9
1.6
7.5
1.8
1.9
6.6
9.8

102.5
114.3
122.9
123.7
142.8
156.3
141.3
128.8
145.5
144.0

-20.8
-3.7
-15.1
-12.0
3.8
21.9
0.1
6.0
26.1
15.8

103.2
96.8
108.4
110.0
113.5
100.7
95.8
87.3
101.7
116.6

-1.2
-0.5
-0.7
0.7
0.9
-1.1
-2.2
0.2
2.6
3.6

113.6
98.8
108.8
107.0
112.5
107.5
110.9
112.6
118.6
116.4

5.1
-8.4
-0.9
-1.0
0.7
3.5
4.9
1.1
0.3
10.0

P: Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea

56

December 2009

5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
See graph 2-6

Period

2007
2008

Domestic consumer
goods shipment index
(2005=100)
Y-o-Y
change (%)

Durable
goods

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Non-durable
goods

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Consumer
sentiment index

113.0
114.6

6.0
1.4

124.5
126.6

12.8
1.7

108.4
109.8

3.2
1.3

-

2007

I
II
III
IV

111.1
111.0
111.3
118.7

8.4
7.8
2.4
5.9

119.8
122.5
122.9
132.8

17.6
15.0
9.3
9.9

107.6
106.4
106.7
113.0

4.8
4.7
-0.5
4.1

-

2008

I
II
III
IV

117.3
115.7
113.5
111.8

5.6
4.2
2.0
-5.8

132.5
136.4
123.0
114.5

10.6
11.3
0.1
-13.8

111.3
107.5
109.7
110.7

3.4
1.0
2.8
-2.0

-

2009

I
II
IIIP

105.9
113.1
118.4

-9.7
-2.2
4.3

112.8
137.9
137.6

-14.9
1.1
11.9

103.2
103.2
110.7

-7.3
-4.0
0.9

-

2007 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

114.9
104.3
114.1
111.6
113.0
108.5
109.7
112.9
111.3
121.6
118.0
116.4

11.1
8.0
6.2
10.1
8.8
4.7
10.0
6.0
-7.1
11.8
3.1
2.9

118.0
113.7
127.8
119.9
125.3
122.4
124.3
125.0
119.5
136.4
131.8
130.2

21.9
14.8
16.2
19.5
18.2
8.0
23.6
13.9
-5.8
16.9
6.7
6.5

113.6
100.5
108.6
108.3
108.0
102.9
103.9
108.1
108.0
115.7
112.4
110.9

7.2
5.0
2.2
6.3
4.8
3.2
4.5
2.8
-7.6
9.6
1.4
1.3

-

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

125.2
106.4
120.3
119.8
115.8
111.6
117.6
111.3
111.5
119.5
107.0
108.8

9.0
2.0
5.4
7.3
2.5
2.9
7.2
-1.4
0.2
-1.7
-9.3
-6.5

131.5
122.4
143.5
144.0
136.9
128.2
134.2
118.8
116.0
127.8
111.0
104.6

11.4
7.7
12.3
20.1
9.3
4.7
8.0
-5.0
-2.9
-6.3
-15.8
-19.7

122.7
100.0
111.1
110.1
107.4
105.0
111.0
108.3
109.7
116.2
105.5
110.5

8.0
-0.5
2.3
1.7
-0.6
2.0
6.8
0.2
1.6
0.4
-6.1
-0.4

84
96
96
88
84
81

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

105.7
102.3
109.8
110.5
111.5
117.4
117.6
109.9
127.7P
119.7P

-15.6
-3.9
-8.7
-7.8
-3.7
5.2
0.0
-1.3
14.5P
0.2P

99.0
115.2
124.3
119.0
138.6
156.0
143.7
124.6
144.5P
138.6P

-24.7
-5.9
-13.4
-17.4
1.2
21.7
7.1
4.9
24.6P
8.5P

108.4
97.2
104.0
107.1
100.6
102.0
107.1
104.0
120.9P
112.1P

-11.7
-2.8
-6.4
-2.7
-6.3
-2.9
-3.5
-4.0
10.2P
-3.5P

84
85
84
98
105
106
109
114
114
117
113

P: Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

57

6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment
and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2
Domestic machinery orders received
excluding ship (billion won, constant prices)
Period

2007
2008

Estimated
facility investment
index
(2005=100)

Domestic
machinery
shipment
excluding ship
(2005=100)

Total

Public

Private

27,279
23,798

2,199
2,309

25,080
21,488

15,635
12,809

118.1
113.0

114.5
114.5

Manufacturing

2008

I
ll
III
IV

7,863
6,088
5,474
4,372

371
535
354
1,049

7,492
5,552
5,121
3,324

4,936
3,140
2,947
1,786

112.8
121.2
113.7
104.3

111.7
120.6
113.9
111.9

2009

I
ll
IIIP

5,205
5,227
5,833

931
701
1,348

4,274
4,527
4,484

2,083
2,330
2,456

92.8
104.9
102.2

98.1
111.2
106.3

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3,110
2,339
2,414
2,043
1,863
2,182
2,372
1,688
1,414
1,711
1,259
1,402

148
68
155
95
89
352
179
87
88
399
207
444

3,661
2,271
2,259
1,947
1,775
1,830
2,193
1,602
1,326
1,312
1,053
959

2,032
1,571
1,332
1,137
913
1,090
1,239
965
743
754
555
478

107.8
104.2
126.4
122.6
122.5
118.4
118.9
113.3
108.9
105.8
103.6
103.5

106.3
102.9
125.9
119.6
122.1
120.0
119.6
108.3
113.8
112.5
108.2
115.1

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9P
10P

1,636
1,727
1,842
1,534
1,466
2,228
2,544
1,423
1,865
1,762

232
519
181
93
98
510
1,074
73
201
97

741
562
780
690
700
940
795
691
970
939

84.7
92.4
101.3
99.4
102.7
112.6
96.5
95.7
114.3
106.1

84.3
97.5
112.5
109.5
102.9
121.1
106.4
97.0
115.4
106.9

2007
2008

20.6
-12.8

-11.4
5.0

29.9
-18.1

8.2
-4.3

3.3
0.0

1,404
1,209
1,661
1,441
1,368
1,718
1,470
1,350
1,663
1,665
Y-o-Y change (%)
24.5
-14.3

2008

I
ll
III
IV

22.7
-0.5
-15.2
-47.3

9.7
84.7
-26.9
-3.5

23.5
-4.7
-14.3
-53.9

44.6
-7.4
-23.7
-64.0

-3.8
-2.7
3.0
-13.4

1.3
0.6
6.5
-7.4

2009

I
ll
IIIP

-33.8
-14.1
6.5

150.5
30.9
281.3

-42.9
-18.5
-12.4

-57.8
-25.8
-16.7

-17.7
-13.4
-9.9

-12.2
-7.8
-6.7

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

51.2
2.6
16.7
5.0
-6.4
0.0
17.0
-9.0
-45.0
-46.4
-52.6
-42.8

67.3
-54.7
55.3
3.2
-2.4
229.6
5.3
-32.2
-52.8
349.0
-5
-43.2

50.5
6.6
14.7
5.1
-6.6
-11.8
18.1
-7.3
-44.4
-57.7
-56.8
-42.7

78.7
26
29.5
5.9
-13.6
-13.7
12.0
-1.4
-58.2
-67.5
-66.9
-50.8

-2.2
-8.0
-1.5
-4.2
-1.1
-2.7
7.0
-0.9
2.9
-6.2
-14.9
-18.4

1.8
0.2
1.6
4.4
-0.8
-1.7
7.1
2.6
10.0
-1.0
-10.1
-10.4

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9P
10P

-47.4
-26.2
-23.7
-24.9
-21.3
2.1
7.3
-15.7
31.9
3.0

56.4
660.1
16.7
-2.9
10.5
45.1
498.8
-15.7
129.5
-75.7

-52.6
-46.8
-26.5
26
22.9
-6.2
-32.9
-15.7
25.5
26.9

-63.6
-64.2
-41.4
-39.3
-23.4
-13.8
-35.9
-28.4
30.6
24.5

-21.4
-11.3
-19.9
-18.9
-16.2
-4.9
-18.8
-15.5
5.0
0.3

-20.7
-5.2
-10.6
-8.4
-15.7
1.0
-11.0
-10.4
1.4
-5.0

P: Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea

58

December 2009

7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction
orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3

(current prices, billion won)

Period

Type of order

Private

Public

Private

25,098
26,728

54,559
55,509

112,502
102,321

28,695
31,320

77,554
65,294

Public

82,939
86,806

2007
2008

Type of order

Domestic
construction
orders received
(total)

Value of
construction
completed
(total)

2008

I
ll
III
IV

18,283
22,158
22,317
24,047

5,279
6,568
6,503
8,383

12,142
14,367
14,712
14,288

21,048
25,995
17,061
38,217

7,398
6,056
4,691
13,175

13,077
19,171
10,795
22,252

2009

I
ll
IIIP

19,115
23,716
22,181

6,562
8,678
7,915

11,536
13,623
13,052

17,567
25,485
18,620

9,024
17,350
8,237

8,055
7,201
9,640

2008

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

6,074
5,473
6,736
7,026
7,321
7,811
7,168
7,312
7,837
7,741
7,779
8,528

1,716
1,519
2,040
1,967
2,224
2,376
2,025
2,139
2,339
2,498
2,572
3,312

4,072
3,698
4,372
4,636
4,731
5,001
4,789
4,822
5,101
4,819
4,743
4,726

6,275
6,152
8,621
7,880
8,578
9,537
5,372
6,169
5,519
8,187
8,151
21,879

1,907
2,048
3,442
1,743
2,499
1,814
1,392
1,520
1,779
2,451
3,088
7,636

4,166
3,887
5,024
5,933
5,884
7,353
3,452
4,432
2,911
4,827
4,722
12,703

2009

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9P
10P

6,048
6,129
6,937
7,451
7,271
8,995
7,005
6,734
8,442
7,237

2,149
2,036
2,377
2,643
2,611
3,423
2,380
2,443
3,092
2,561

5,333
4,880
7,354
7,249
6,988
11,247
5,527
4,352
8,741
10.415

2,552
2,695
3,778
5,610
4,295
7,445
2,947
1,713
3,576
4,650

2,514
2,079
3,462
1,260
2,573
3,369
2,362
2,569
4,709
5,616

6.6
4.7

8.4
6.5

23.6
-9.0

40.3
9.1

16.5
-15.8

2007
2008

3,608
3,782
4,147
4,415
4,232
4,977
4,249
3,923
4,879
4.302
Y-o-Y change (%)
4.6
1.7

2008

I
ll
III
IV

5.6
6.1
10.6
-2.2

6.8
3.5
6.6
8.7

3.0
4.6
10.5
-9.1

-3.7
-6.1
-22.7
-6.5

17.4
14.6
2.9
5.0

-14.1
-4.7
-32.3
-15.3

2009

I
ll
IIIP

4.5
7.0
-1.2

24.4
32.1
20.8

-5.0
-5.2
-11.8

-16.5
-2.0
9.1

22.0
186.5
75.6

-38.4
-62.4
-10.7

2008

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

10.5
3.1
3.6
4.2
7.5
6.6
8.7
8.3
14.8
5.1
-1.3
-8.6

16.5
-1.0
5.5
2.4
5.0
3.1
3.2
9.5
6.9
20.4
5.7
3.4

5.6
2.6
1.0
2.6
5.9
5.3
9.2
5.9
16.7
-3.3
-7.1
-16.2

-9.3
-7.0
3.6
-0.5
16.4
-23.0
-13.2
-8.1
-39.8
-23.7
-39.3
30.7

3.6
2.1
40.1
-5.6
50.7
2.0
-9.2
9.3
8.8
-25.8
-16.6
37.8

-15.0
-14.1
-13.4
3.4
16.0
-21.0
-8.4
-10.7
-59.6
-32.1
-46.7
23.4

2009

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9P
10P

-0.4
12.0
3.0
6.0
-0.7
15.2
-2.3
-7.9
7.7
-6.5

25.2
34.0
16.5
34.3
17.4
44.1
17.5
14.2
32.2
2.5

-11.4
2.3
-5.1
-4.8
-10.5
-0.5
-11.3
-18.6
-4.3
-10.7

-15.0
-20.7
-14.7
-8.0
-18.5
17.9
2.9
-29.5
58.4
27.2

33.8
31.6
9.7
221.8
71.9
310.3
111.7
12.7
101.1
89.7

-39.7
-46.5
-31.1
-78.8
-56.3
-54.2
-31.6
-42.0
61.8
16.3

P: Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

59

8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3

Y-o-Y
change (%)

Coincident
index
(2005=100)

Cycle of
coincident
index
(2005=100)

BSI (results)

BSI (prospects)

104.2
104.3
104.2
104.3
104.6
105.0
105.2
105.7
106.4
107.4
108.1
108.7

6.9
6.4
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.6
5.1
5.4
5.4

104.0
104.1
104.5
104.6
105.2
105.5
105.2
105.6
106.4
108.3
109.1
109.4

100.4
100.1
100.1
99.8
99.9
99.8
99.1
99.1
99.4
100.7
101.1
101.0

95.4
90.5
111.5
99.8
94.1
94.2
79.1
85.9
99.4
99.4
103.7
100.4

102.6
102.4
118.9
112.7
110.7
98.6
94.2
93.4
107.7
103.5
104.3
101.4

2007 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

109.2
109.9
110.3
111.0
111.3
112.3
113.2
114.1
114.9
115.8
116.7
117.0

5.5
5.8
5.7
5.9
5.8
6.3
6.7
7.1
7.3
7.6
7.9
7.6

109.4
109.8
110.2
110.7
111.2
112.1
113.0
113.7
113.8
114.4
115.0
116.0

100.6
100.6
100.5
100.5
100.6
100.9
101.4
101.6
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.9

85.6
87.5
109.4
105.8
104.1
100.2
95.8
94.4
101.5
108.3
106.0
98.9

96.5
93.4
112.3
107.7
110.9
105.6
99.3
102.5
111.8
116.3
112.4
103.4

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

116.6
115.8
115.2
114.9
114.8
114.4
113.7
113.5
113.4
112.7
111.3
110.4

6.6
5.1
3.9
3.0
2.3
1.3
0.1
-0.5
-0.9
-1.8
-3.3
-4.3

116.8
116.9
117.1
117.1
117.3
117.3
117.6
117.7
117.9
117.6
115.9
113.0

102.2
101.9
101.7
101.2
101.0
100.6
100.4
100.1
99.8
99.2
97.3
94.6

95.2
95.6
101.1
101.7
98.1
79.1
80.8
83.1
76.8
64.6
53.7
52.4

103.0
94.8
102.1
98.1
104.7
95.3
83.2
80.8
98.3
84.9
63.7
55.0

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

110.7
111.9
113.0
115.0
117.4
120.5
122.2
123.4P
124.4P
125.7P
-

-4.0
-2.9
-1.9
0.1
2.6
5.8
7.8
9.1P
10.2P
11.3P
-

110.9
110.9
111.9
113.6
114.5
116.9
118.3
119.4P
120.1P
120.6P
-

58.1
62.4
89.0
93.7
100.9
96.6
98.5
96.0
110.5
107.5
103.8
-

52.0
66.0
76.1
86.7
103.8
100.2
98.7
99.8
117.0
116.5
109.0
105.9

Period

Leading
index
(2005=100)

2006 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

P: Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries

60

December 2009

92.4
92.0
92.5
93.5
93.8
95.4
96.2
96.7P
96.9P
86.9P
-

9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2
(million US$)

Period

2007
2008P

Current
balance

Goods
trade
balance

Exports

5,876.0
-6,406.4

28,168.0
5,993.9

Imports

Services
trade
balance

Income
trade
balance

Current
transfers

371,489.1
422,007.3

356,845.7
435,274.7

-19,767.6
-16,733.6

1,002.7
5,106.5

-3,527.1
-773.2

2007

I
II
III
IV

-1,013.3
-1,303.6
4,344.1
3,848.8

5,721.8
5,811.9
8,881.9
7,752.4

84,703.5
92,984.5
90,529.1
103,272.0

82,261.7
87,961.9
86,058.8
100,563.3

-5,391.3
-4,415.9
-5,256.6
-4,703.8

-618.1
-1,662.4
1,795.9
1,487.3

-725.7
-1,037.2
-1,077.1
-687.1

2008P

I
II
III
IV

-5,212.6
-134.4
-8,579.9
7,520.5

-1,219.8
5,722.7
-3,475.5
4,966.5

99,444.5
114,492.0
115,000.1
93,070.6

106,052.9
114,792.8
122,901.0
91,528.0

-5,067.2
-4,272.7
-5,691.7
-1,702.0

1,688.1
-645.6
1,356.7
2,707.3

-613.7
-938.8
-769.4
1,548.7

2009P

I
II
III

8,576.7
13,173.8
10,304.7

8,349.6
17,625.5
14,736.4

74,412.0
90,689.0
94,987.0

71,421.4
73,723.6
84,797.6

-1,883.3
-4,021.6
-5,315.1

832.4
180.8
1,617.1

1,278.0
-610.9
-733.7

2007

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

439.4
430.4
-1,883.1
-2,558.6
193.8
1,061.2
1,773.7
589.1
1,981.3
3,010.5
1,674.4
-836.1

1,505.6
2,140.0
2,076.2
1,233.1
1,476.9
3,101.9
3,250.9
2,386.2
3,244.8
4,361.0
2,723.8
667.6

28,092.6
26,225.1
30,385.8
29,944.5
31,039.9
32,000.1
30,207.4
30,998.1
29,323.5
34,433.8
35,807.9
33,030.3

27,560.1
25,406.2
29,295.5
29,596.9
29,856.9
28,508.1
29,223.2
29,642.1
27,193.6
32,741.2
33,926.1
33,895.9

-1,409.6
-2,356.4
-1,625.3
-1,371.3
-1,396.5
-1,648.1
-1,675.3
-2,050.6
-1,530.7
-1,527.0
-1,410.8
-1,766.0

610.1
867.2
-2,095.4
-2,203.8
504.0
37.4
557.1
610.7
628.1
454.1
474.8
558.4

-266.7
-220.4
-238.6
-216.6
-390.6
-430.0
-359.0
-357.2
-360.9
-277.6
-113.4
-296.1

2008P 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

-2,751.3
-2,350.7
-110.6
-1,581.3
-377.5
1,824.4
-2,534.0
-4,696.3
-1,349.6
4,753.0
1,906.7
860.8

-1,095.2
-599.1
474.5
1,632.3
612.5
3,477.9
217.6
-2,803.4
-889.7
2,625.7
844.8
1,496.0

32,274.6
31,178.2
35,991.8
37,850.2
39,383.2
37,258.6
40,961.2
36,610.6
37,428.3
37,111.1
28,841.6
27,117.9

36,318.0
32,624.3
37,110.6
38,260.4
38,704.5
37,827.9
42,952.5
40,420.4
39,528.1
36,098.8
28,853.6
26,575.6

-2,138.1
-2,249.6
-679.5
-979.0
-1,167.4
-2,126.3
-2,456.0
-2,000.0
-1,235.7
-54.8
-130.1
-1,517.1

768.0
700.7
219.4
-1,932.0
459.2
827.2
239.6
324.8
792.3
1,411.2
720.2
575.9

-286.0
-202.7
-125.0
-302.6
-281.8
-354.4
-535.2
-217.7
-16.5
770.9
471.8
306.0

2009P 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

-1,635.8
3,563.7
6,648.8
4,247.4
3,495.8
5,430.6
4,358.7
1,912.2
4,033.8
4,944.6

-1,736.5
3,106.9
6,979.2
6,131.8
4,882.0
6,611.7
6,126.4
3,332.0
5,278.0
5,721.0

21,130.6
25,397.2
27,883.6
30,325.4
27,807.8
32,555.8
31,977.5
28,940.7
34,068.9
33,956.5

24,928.1
22,591.7
23,901.7
24,797.5
23,328.1
25,598.1
27,641.1
27,406.3
29,750.2
30,325.8

-708.6
-529.0
-645.7
-1,109.3
-1,466.9
-1,445.4
-1,894.1
-1,791.3
-1.629.7
-1,127.2

563.5
484.6
-215.7
-855.5
358.3
678.0
481.6
587.4
548.1
541.2

245.8
501.2
531.0
80.4
-277.6
-413.7
-355.2
-215.9
-162.6
-191.2

P: Preliminary
Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service

Economic Bulletin

61

10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3
(million US$)
Changes in
reserve
assets

Period

Capital &
financial
account

Direct
investment

Portfolio
investment

Financial
derivative

2007
2008P

7,128.3
-50,933.3

-13,836.0
-10,594.8

-26,057.8
-15,367.5

5,444.8
-14,332.7

43,964.8
-10,599.7

-2,387.5
-38.6

-15,128.4
56,446.0

2,124.1
893.7

I
II
III
IV

6,364.1
8,948.6
-4,323.4
-3,861.0

-900.7
-2,847.3
-2,606.0
-7,482.0

-12,227.6
-1,055.9
-11,455.8
-1,318.5

1,300.5
1,067.4
1,432.9
1,644.0

19,005.7
12,466.8
8,879.2
3,613.1

-813.8
-682.4
-573.7
-317.6

-3,998.3
-6,250.1
-2,495.6
-2,384.2

-1,352.5
-1,394.9
2,475.1
2,396.4

2008P I
ll
III
IV

395.9
-4,673.7
-4,850.5
-41,805.0

-4,790.6
-2,913.5
-2,283.5
-607.2

-9,992.8
5,997.3
-12,393.1
1,021.1

-1,072.8
-805.9
-3,470.2
-8,983.8

16,489.7
-6,718.6
13,515.7
-33,886.5

-237.6
-233.0
-219.4
651.4

3,850.0
5,717.7
12,883.1
33,995.2

966.7
-909.6
547.3
289.3

2009

-548.7
8,893.7
15,050.3

-1,194.7
39.3
-1,485.1

3,532.3
16,740.2
19,914.7

-4,893.6
-614.9
-1,296.5

1,282.3
-7,565.6
-2,259.3

736.9
275.5
164.2

-9,017.4
-19.541.8
-23,886.9

989.4
-2,525.7
-1,468.1

2007 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2,179.9
-527.7
4,711.9
4,481.5
4,750.1
-283.0
-552.8
137.3
-3,907.9
-3,753.9
-373.5
266.4

-222.3
-644.1
-34.3
-402.2
-282.9
-2,162.2
-322.0
-1,427.1
-856.9
-4,514.5
-1,723.4
-1,244.1

-1,915.9
-2,366.7
-7,945.0
3,601.6
-12.6
-4,644.9
-7,912.0
-6,531.8
2,988.0
-638.2
-2,473.5
1,793.2

292.8
368.2
639.5
197.7
409.0
460.7
705.2
440.1
287.6
663.4
627.2
353.4

4,381.7
2,318.3
12,305.7
1,325.2
4,871.5
6,270.1
7,203.9
7,864.1
-6,188.8
900.5
3,269.4
-556.8

-356.4
-203.4
-254.0
-240.8
-234.9
-206.7
-227.9
-208.0
-137.8
-165.1
-73.2
-79.3

-2,350.7
-1,134.7
-512.9
-1,878.4
-4,492.9
121.2
-2,421.6
-937.6
863.4
-847.5
-493.8
-1,042.9

-268.6
1,232.0
-2,315.9
-44.5
-451.0
-899.4
1,200.7
211.2
1,063.2
1,590.9
-807.1
1,612.6

2008P 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

409.2
-401.3
388.0
-376.9
-732.1
-3,564.7
-5,774.6
5,312.4
-4,388.3
-24,834.8
-12,140.9
-4,829.3

-2,488.7
303.5
-2,605.4
-1,911.9
-262.6
-739.0
-1,214.3
-742.7
-326.5
-198.7
-213.9
-194.6

-3,829.7
-5,214.3
-948.8
4,069.9
7,623.0
-5,695.6
-8,855.9
-566.8
-2,970.4
5,172.5
-3,139.6
-1,011.8

-181.4
-212.1
-679.3
-498.2
-279.6
-28.1
-707.2
1.4
-2,764.4
-3,912.1
-1,558.7
-3,513.0

7,013.3
4,819.9
4,656.5
-1,948.9
-7,758.2
2,988.5
5,180.4
6,730.0
1,605.3
-26,247.2
-7,439.3
-200.0

-104.3
-98.3
-35.0
-87.8
-54.7
-90.5
-177.6
-109.5
67.7
350.7
210.6
90.1

1,436.1
1,703.1
710.8
2,411.3
2,264.6
1,041.8
9,171.4
-1,215.2
4,926.9
19,988.1
10,904.2
3,102.9

906.0
1,048.9
-988.2
-453.1
-1,155.0
698.5
-862.8
599.1
811.0
93.7
-670.0
865.6

2009P 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

5,139.4
-2,976.9
-2,711.2
2,161.3
7,022.9
-290.5
2,384.8
5,461.0
7,204.5
1,543.4

-55.0
-545.5
-594.2
80.4
-259.6
218.5
-1,139.3
-111.2
-234.6
-281.7

5,678.8
161.4
-2,307.9
7,133.0
4,263.5
5,343.7
7,940.1
4,063.5
7,911.1
6,130.5

-248.5
-2,321.2
-2,323.9
-679.8
1,341.1
-1,276.2
-272.7
-721.0
-302.8
-572.9

-379.4
-610.3
2,272.0
-4,532.6
1,586.9
4,619.9
-4,379.3
2,176.2
-56.2
-3,744.7

149.6
326.1
261.2
140.5
93.8
41.2
208.5
52.3
-96.6
24.4

-4,488.6
-1,260.0
-3,268.8
-5,444.1
-10,248.6
-3,849.1
-5,573.6
-7,095.2
-11,218.1
-7,966.2

985.0
673.2
-668.8
-964.6
-270.1
-1,291.0
-1,169.8
-278.0
-20.2
1,478.2

2007

I
II
IIIP

P: Preliminary
Source: The Bank of Korea

62

December 2009

Capital transfers
Other
& acquisition of
investment non-financial
assets

Errors and
omissions

11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3
(2005 = 100)
Producer prices
(2005=100)

Consumer prices

Export & import prices

Period
All Items

Commodity

Service

Core

All items

Commodity

Export

Import

2007
2008

104.8
109.7

103.5
109.9

105.7
109.6

104.2
108.6

102.3
111.1

101.5
112.5

89.8
109.5

105.5
143.7

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

106.8
107.2
108.2
108.8
109.7
110.4
111.2
111.0
111.1
111.0
110.7
110.7

106.3
106.6
107.1
108.2
110.0
111.5
112.9
112.2
112.1
111.7
110.3
110.2

107.1
107.5
108.9
109.2
109.5
109.7
110.1
110.3
110.4
110.6
110.9
111.0

105.6
106.0
107.2
107.7
108.2
108.7
109.2
109.4
109.9
110.1
110.4
110.9

104.7
105.7
107.1
109.4
111.5
113.3
115.5
115.2
114.8
114.4
111.8
109.9

104.4
105.7
107.5
110.3
113.1
115.5
118.1
117.6
117.0
116.7
113.3
110.9

93.7
94.8
100.8
103.3
110.7
112.0
112.1
110.5
115.6
124.5
120.4
115.0

118.4
121.6
131.5
136.5
151.1
155.2
156.8
149.9
153.4
159.7
149.1
140.6

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

110.8
111.6
112.4
112.7
112.7
112.6
113.0
113.4
113.5
113.2
113.4

110.4
112.1
113.3
113.8
113.6
113.3
113.9
114.5
114.6
113.9
114.2

111.1
111.2
111.8
112.0
112.0
112.1
112.5
112.7
112.7
112.8
112.9

111.1
111.5
112.0
112.2
112.4
112.5
112.7
112.8
112.9
113.0
113.2

109.6
110.3
110.8
111.0
110.1
109.8
111.1
111.7
111.8
110.9
111.3

110.4
111.5
112.1
112.1
111.0
110.5
112.1
112.9
113.0
111.8
112.5

111.1
116.5
118.4
112.2
106.3
108.3
109.0
109.3
107.3
104.0
-

138.1
143.5
145.4
134.1
130.0
136.7
136.6
139.5
136.8
135.3
-

2007
2008

2.5
4.7

2.0
6.2

2.9
3.7

2.4
4.2

1.4
8.6

1.0
10.8

-2.1
21.8

4.5
36.2

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3.9
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.6
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.1

4.8
4.2
4.7
5.3
7.0
8.6
9.3
8.4
7.1
6.3
5.1
4.4

3.2
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.0

2.8
2.8
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.6

4.2
5.1
6.0
7.6
9.0
10.5
12.5
12.3
11.3
10.7
7.8
5.6

4.8
6.1
7.3
9.3
11.3
13.6
16.1
15.6
14.4
14.0
9.9
6.9

5.8
7.6
13.4
15.7
24.0
25.2
25.1
21.9
27.4
38.6
31.5
25.0

21.2
22.2
28.0
31.3
44.6
49.0
50.6
42.6
42.6
47.1
32.0
22.4

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

3.7
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.4

3.9
5.2
5.8
5.2
3.3
1.6
0.9
2.0
2.2
2.0
3.5

3.7
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8

5.2
5.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.5

4.7
4.4
3.5
1.5
-1.3
-3.1
3.8
-3.0
-2.6
-3.1
-0.4

5.7
5.5
4.3
1.6
-1.9
-4.3
-5.1
-4.0
-3.4
-4.2
-0.7

18.6
22.9
17.4
7.7
-4.1
-3.3
-2.7
-1.1
-7.2
-16.5
-

16.7
18.0
10.6
-1.8
-13.9
-11.9
-12.9
-7.0
-10.8
-15.3
-

Y-o-Y change (%)

Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

63

12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Wage workers (thous.)

Economically active persons (thous.)
Period

Employed persons (thous.)

Unemployment (%)
Regular

Temporary

Daily

All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service
2007
2008

24,216
24,347

23,433
23,577

4,014
3,963

17,679
17,906

3.2
3.2

15,970
16,206

8,620
9,007

5,172
5,079

2,178
2,121

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

23,738
23,703
24,114
24,495
24,692
24,727
24,673
24,380
24,456
24,582
24,566
24,032

22,964
22,884
23,305
23,711
23,939
23,963
23,903
23,617
23,734
23,847
23,816
23,245

4,022
4,017
3,999
4,001
3,987
3,993
3,975
3,899
3,928
3,945
3,897
3,888

17,651
17,510
17,732
17,929
18,046
18,067
18,088
17,872
17,951
18,005
18,086
17,935

3.3
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.3

16,032
15,836
15,993
16,258
16,405
16,385
16,363
16,104
16,221
16,314
16,377
16,189

8,815
8,804
8,898
8,894
9,010
9,039
9,054
9,107
9,142
9,138
9,111
9,068

5,115
5,055
5,023
5,127
5,165
5,132
5,163
4,970
5,015
5,034
5,071
5,082

2,102
1,977
2,073
2,238
2,231
2,214
2,146
2,027
2,064
2,142
2,195
2,040

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

23,709
23,667
24,062
24,456
24,658
24,927
24,756
24,525
24,630
24,655
24,625

22,861
22,742
23,110
23,524
23,720
23,967
23,828
23,620
23,805
23,856
23,806

3,895
3,842
3,813
3,846
3,846
3,836
3,802
3,761
3,810
3,858
3,855

17,663
17,539
17,701
17,899
18,016
18,251
18,210
18,048
18,155
18,130
18,267

3.6
3.9
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.3

16,053
15,953
16,076
16,353
16,484
16,736
16,589
16,479
16,687
16,690
16,790

9,102
9,194
9,174
9,227
9,316
9,340
9,383
9,472
9,606
9,628
9,603

4,982
4,862
4,941
5,051
5,076
5,281
5,255
5,117
5,151
5,170
5,256

1,969
1,897
1,961
2,076
2,092
2,115
1,952
1,890
1,931
1,892
1,931

2007
2008

1.0
0.5

1.2
0.6

-1.0
-1.3

2.2
1.3

-

2.7
1.5

5.1
4.5

0.6
-1.8

-1.2
-2.6

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.2

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
-0.1

-0.6
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.1
-1.2
-1.2
-1.6
-2.3
-2.2
-3.3

1.8
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.2
0.7
0.6

-

2.4
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.5

5.2
4.8
5.5
5.2
5.6
4.9
4.4
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.6

-1.2
-1.4
-3.2
-2.1
-1.8
-1.6
-1.7
-1.5
-1.7
-1.7
-2.0
-1.8

0.2
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-3.2
-3.3
-2.4
-2.3
-3.2
-2.8
-2.5
-6.3

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.2

-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0

-3.2
-4.4
-4.7
-3.9
-3.5
-3.9
-4.3
-3.5
-3.0
-2.2
-1.1

0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
1.0
0.7
1.0
1.1
0.7
1.0

-

0.1
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.5
2.1
1.4
2.3
2.9
2.3
2.5

3.3
4.4
3.1
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.6
4.0
5.1
5.4
5.4

-2.6
-3.8
-1.6
-1.5
-1.7
2.9
1.8
3.0
2.7
2.7
3.7

-6.3
-4.1
-5.4
-7.2
-6.2
-4.5
-9.1
-6.7
-6.5
-11.7
-12.0

Y-o-Y change (%)

Source: Statistics Korea

64

December 2009

13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4
(period average)
Yields (%)

Stock

Period
Call rate
(1 day)

CD
(91 days)

Corporate bonds
(3 years, AA-)

Treasury bonds
(3 years)

Treasury bonds
(5 years)

KOSPI
(end-period)

2005 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7

3.5
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0

4.1
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.5
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.5
5.5

3.7
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.1
5.1

3.9
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
4.0
4.4
4.7
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.3

932.70
1,011.40
965.70
911.30
970.20
1,008.20
1,111.30
1,083.30
1,221.00
1,158.10
1,297.40
1,379.40

2006 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5

4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.8

5.5
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.2

5.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.8

5.3
5.0
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.9

1,399.80
1,371.60
1,359.60
1,419.70
1,371.70
1,295.70
1,297.80
1,352.70
1,371.40
1,364.60
1,432.20
1,434.50

2007 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0

4.9
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.7

5.3
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.7

5.0
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.9

5.0
4.9
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.9

1,360.20
1,417.30
1,452.60
1,542.24
1,700.91
1,743.60
1,933.27
1,873.24
1,946.48
2,064.95
1,906.00
1,897.10

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.2
4.9
4.0
3.3

5.8
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.8
5.8
6.0
5.6
4.7

6.6
6.3
6.1
5.9
6.2
6.7
7.0
7.1
7.5
8.0
8.6
8.4

5.4
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.3
5.7
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.1
5.0
4.0

5.5
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.2
5.2
4.3

1,624.68
1,711.62
1,703.99
1,825.47
1,852.02
1,674.92
1,594.67
1,474.24
1,448.06
1,113.06
1,076.07
1,124.47

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

2.4
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

3.2
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.8

7.3
7.1
6.1
5.7
5.2
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.4

3.4
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.3

4.0
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8

1,162.11
1,063.03
1,206.26
1,369.40
1,395.89
1,390.07
1,577.29
1,591.85
1,673.14
1,580.69
1,555.60

Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

65

14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5
(period average)

Period

(billion won)

Reserve money

M1

M2

Lf

2007
2008

48,543.7
52,272.8

312,832.3
307,273.6

1,197,094.8
1,367,713.4

1,603,516.0
1,794,841.2

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

50,260.5
52,563.7
49,571.5
50,683.6
50,502.5
51,274.4
50,600.6
51,981.0
53,303.9
52,976.5
54,254.5
59,300.7

305,868.0
304,580.7
299,792.8
298,474.4
304,239.8
305,514.3
306,584.4
304,538.7
307,067.8
310,565.5
316,330.9
323,725.9

1,286,407.8
1,309,161.7
1,324,032.7
1,339,434.9
1,356,612.9
1,369,728.1
1,378,914.3
1,386,101.1
1,395,719.2
1,403,984.2
1,426,165.1
1,436,298.3

1,711,196.8
1,726,407.2
1,743,481.7
1,762,945.3
1,782,721.1
1,798,774.9
1,801,540.6
1,810,535.1
1,831,313.4
1,845,717.7
1,859,348.8
1,864,111.6

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

64,040.6
63,061.7
65,669.5
61,379.9
60,082.5
59,530.3
59,420.2
60,570.3
59,650.3
63,681.7

331,358.0
334,521.7
342,777.0
350,446.0
355,922.0
362,111.3
363,421.4
361,012.4
367,070.3
371,531.7

1,440,275.8
1,457,931.3
1,470,443.1
1,482,009.7
1,491,542.7
1,501,898.3
1,512,822.5
1,524,879.7
1,535,279.8
1,551,319.5

1,868,843.3
1,879,102.7
1,889,388.6
1,897,923.7
1,912,745.6
1,925,341.0
1,939,962.4
1,956,088.3
1,972,156.3
1,990,248.2

Y-o-Y change (%)
2007
2008

16.5
7.7

-5.2
-1.8

11.2
14.3

10.2
11.9

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

5.0
6.2
1.3
6.7
5.0
7.0
6.5
8.7
9.1
7.3
11.1
17.8

-13.5
-13.2
-10.6
-2.3
1.0
1.0
1.4
2.2
2.7
4.2
5.5
5.2

12.5
13.4
13.9
14.9
15.8
15.1
14.8
14.7
14.5
14.2
14.0
13.1

11.4
11.6
11.9
12.7
13.1
12.7
12.1
11.8
12.2
11.9
11.4
10.4

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

27.4
20.0
32.5
21.1
19.0
16.1
17.4
16.5
11.9
20.2

8.3
9.8
14.3
17.4
17.0
18.5
18.5
18.5
19.5
19.6

12.0
11.4
11.1
10.6
9.9
9.6
9.7
10.0
10.0
10.5

9.2
8.8
8.4
7.7
7.3
7.0
7.7
8.0
7.7
7.8

P: Preliminary
Source: The Bank of Korea

66

December 2009

15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3

/US$

/100

/Euro

Period
End-period

Average

End-period

Average

End-period

Average

2007
2008

938.2
1,257.5

929.2
1,102.6

833.3
1,393.9

789.8
1,076.6

1,381.3
1,776.2

1,272.7
1,606.8

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

943.9
937.3
991.7
999.7
1,031.4
1,043.4
1,008.5
1,081.8
1,187.7
1,291.4
1,482.7
1,257.5

942.4
944.7
979.9
986.7
1,036.7
1,029.3
1,019.1
1,041.5
1,130.4
1,326.9
1,390.1
1,373.8

889.1
889.7
1,000.2
961.8
977.0
981.8
932.9
987.9
1,144.2
1,306.0
1,553.8
1,393.9

872.9
880.6
972.3
962.4
994.2
963.0
954.2
953.0
1,060.6
1,327.1
1,435.1
1,503.3

1,402.3
1,423.5
1,565.0
1,556.2
1,599.6
1,647.1
1,571.0
1,590.3
1,707.2
1,664.4
1,912.6
1,776.2

1,386.2
1,395.4
1,519.5
1,555.1
1,614.6
1,601.7
1,606.4
1,561.6
1,627.6
1,765.3
1,768.9
1,846.1

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

1,368.5
1,516.4
1,377.1
1,348.0
1,272.9
1,284.7
1,240.5
1,244.9
1,188.7
1,200.6
1,167.4

1,346.1
1,429.5
1,462.0
1,341.9
1,258.7
1,261.4
1,264.0
1,238.4
1,219.2
1,175.3
1,164.2

1,521.0
1,541.1
1,414.8
1,382.9
1,314.1
1,336.3
1,299.2
1,332.8
1,318.8
1,312.6
1,348.3

1,487.2
1,546.1
1,495.7
1,356.2
1,304.5
1,305.5
1,338.1
1,304.3
1,332.4
1,300.8
1,304.4

1,768.7
1,930.1
1,816.4
1,786.8
1,772.7
1,809.3
1,745.9
1,779.1
1,734.3
1,781.3
1,751.7

1,793.8
1,829.9
1,904.0
1,771.6
1,719.1
1,767.8
1,778.8
1,776.3
1,774.2
1,742.9
1,736.6

Y-o-Y change (%)
2007
2008

0.9
34.0

-2.8
18.7

6.6
67.3

-3.9
36.3

-13.0
28.6

6.1
26.2

2008 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

0.3
-0.1
5.5
7.6
10.9
12.6
9.2
15.1
29.0
42.3
59.5
34.0

0.6
0.8
3.9
5.9
11.7
10.9
10.9
11.5
21.2
44.9
51.6
47.7

15.0
12.1
25.5
23.6
27.8
30.5
20.4
22.0
43.6
65.1
83.6
67.3

12.2
13.4
20.8
22.8
29.4
27.2
26.3
19.2
30.8
67.8
73.7
81.5

14.9
14.6
24.8
22.8
28.1
32.2
24.0
24.0
31.0
27.1
39.4
28.6

13.9
13.9
21.6
23.6
28.7
28.7
27.5
22.7
26.1
35.5
31.5
36.2

2009 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

45.0
61.8
38.9
34.8
23.4
23.1
23.0
15.1
0.1
-7.0
-21.3

42.8
51.3
49.2
36.0
21.4
22.5
24.0
18.9
7.9
-11.4
-16.2

71.1
73.2
41.5
43.8
34.5
36.1
39.3
34.9
15.3
0.5
-13.2

70.4
75.6
53.8
40.9
31.2
35.6
40.2
36.9
25.6
-2.0
-9.1

26.1
35.6
16.1
14.8
10.8
9.9
11.1
11.9
1.6
7.0
-8.4

29.4
31.1
25.3
13.9
6.5
10.4
10.7
13.1
9.0
-1.3
-1.8

Source: The Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

67

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